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牛津经济研究院:2022年澳大利亚宏观经济预测报告(英文版)(85页).pdf

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1、AEMO Macroeconomic Outlook FY2023 2022 MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS REPORT:FINAL PREPARED BY BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR 13TH JULY 2022 AEMO Macroeconomic Outlook FY2022 1 BIS Oxford Economics In 2017 Oxford Economics acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel,to cr

2、eate BIS Oxford Economics.The BIS team have extensive experience forecasting and analysing Australias economy,with particular expertise in the economic outlook,construction activity,and property markets.Oxford Economics,the parent company,was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford Unive

3、rsitys business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad.Since then,we have become one of the worlds foremost independent global advisory firms,providing reports,forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries,250 ind

4、ustrial sectors,and 7,000 cities and regions.Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic,social and business impact.Headquartered in Oxford,England,with regional centres in New

5、 York,London,Frankfurt,and Singapore,Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast,Boston,Cape Town,Chicago,Dubai,Hong Kong,Los Angeles,Melbourne,Mexico City,Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,and Toronto.We employ 400 full-time staff,including more than 250 professional econ

6、omists,industry experts,and business editorsone of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists.Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities from econometric modelling,scenario framing,and economic impact anal

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本文是澳大利亚能源市场运营商(AEMO)的宏观经济展望报告,主要内容包括: 1. 介绍了报告的背景和目的,以及BIS牛津经济学的简介。 2. 详细描述了三种未来情景:Step Change、Progressive Change和Hydrogen Export。 3. Step Change情景是AEMO认为最可能的情景,基于适度的人口预测,假设所有气候缓解承诺得到实现,全球经济在2050年达到净零排放。 4. 分析了各行业和各州的经济表现,预计短期内服务业将推动增长,但受制于家庭消费,中期内增长将放缓。 5. 比较了三种情景的经济表现,Step Change情景下,全球经济将在2050年达到净零排放,而Progressive Change和Hydrogen Export情景下,全球经济将在2050年分别达到2.6⁰C和更低温度。 综上所述,本文主要介绍了AEMO的宏观经济展望报告,包括三种未来情景的设定和分析,以及各行业和各州的经济表现预测。
澳大利亚2023年经济展望报告主要内容是什么? 报告中的“Step Change”情景与“Progressive Change”情景有何不同? 报告预测了哪些行业在澳大利亚未来经济发展中将发挥重要作用?
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