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方舟投资×Unchained:2026比特币与量子计算白皮书(英文版)(28页).pdf

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1、Bitcoin And Quantum ComputingJoin the conversation on X ARKinvest unchainedwww.ark-Published:March 11,2026Author:Dhruv Bansal,Co-Founder and CSO at UnchainedAuthor:Tom Honzik,Director of Custody Research at UnchainedAuthor:David Puell,Research Trading Analyst/Associate Portfolio Manager,Digital Asse

2、ts at ARK Invest2Bitcoin And Quantum Computing Dhruv Bansal,Tom Honzik,and David PuellTable Of ContentsIntroductionThe Basics Quantum ComputingBitcoin CryptographyQuantum Computing Capability Is A JourneyImportant Questions For InvestorsPQC Is Widely DeployedImplementing PQC In Bitcoin Will Require

3、Consensus ChangesNo Consensus Exists About Protecting Coins That Remain Vulnerable To QuantumThree ScenariosThe Road Ahead356681417181920233Bitcoin And Quantum Computing Dhruv Bansal,Tom Honzik,and David PuellIntroductionThis paper assesses whether and how advances in quantum computing(QC)pose a ris

4、k to Bitcoin.Our two central arguments are as follows:1.Quantum is a long-term risk but not an imminent threat.The community must continue to research and make plans for protecting the network as quantum computers improve.2.If quantum computing were to affect Bitcoins cryptography,the process would

5、be protracted and undertaken at meaningful cost to the attacker.Todays quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin.Meaningful breakthroughs would disrupt internet security first,triggering coordinated responses well beyond Bitcoin.In our view,quantum development will be a gr

6、adual technological progressionnot a sudden“Q-day”eventgiving markets and the Bitcoin network time to adapt.Quantum computers use qubits that can exist in superposition,enabling quantum algorithms to scale more quickly than classical algorithms.Their performance is measured by parameters like the nu

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1. **量子计算是长期风险,非即时威胁**:当前量子计算机(NISQ时代)约100个逻辑量子比特,远低于破解比特币椭圆曲线密码(ECC)所需的2330个逻辑量子比特和数千万至数十亿量子门。 2. **比特币供应风险有限**:约35%供应量(690万BTC)面临量子威胁,其中170万BTC在已丢失的P2PK地址,520万BTC在可迁移的P2TR或复用地址。 3. **量子攻击是渐进过程**:分4个阶段,当前处于阶段0(无商业用途),阶段3(可缓慢破解ECC)预计10-20年后,阶段4(快速破解)需协议升级(如BIP 360的P2MR方案)。 4. **抗量子密码(PQC)已部署**:NIST已标准化ML-DSA和SLH-DSA等PQC算法,但比特币共识层升级需社区协调,存在技术和管理挑战。 5. **投资者关注关键问题**:包括量子突破时间、攻击成本、治理协调能力,以及乐观/悲观/平衡三种情景下的应对策略。
量子会破比特币吗? 比特币如何防量子? 量子威胁何时来?
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