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AMRO:2025年日本年度磋商报告(中译版)(75页).pdf

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1、AMRO Country Report ACR/26-02 ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)February 2026 AMRO Annual Consultation Report Japan-2025 ANNUAL CONSULTATION REPORT JAPAN 2025 ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)Page 2 of 75 Acknowledgments 1.This Annual Consultation Report on Japan has been prepared

2、 in accordance with the functions of AMRO to monitor and assess the macroeconomic status and financial soundness of its members;identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities;report these to member authorities;and if requested,assist them in mitigating these risks through the timely formulation of poli

3、cy recommendations.This is being done in accordance with Article 3(a)and(b)of the AMRO Agreement.2.This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation Visit of AMRO to Japan from October 27 November 7,2025(Article 5(b)of the AMRO Agreement).The AMRO Mission team was led by Dr.Runchana Pon

4、gsaparn,Group Head and Lead Economist.Members included Mr.Paolo Hernando,Senior Economist(Country Desk economist);Mr.Shunsuke Endo,Senior Economist(Country co-desk economist);Mr.Koon Hui Tee,Senior Economist;Mr.Prashant Pande,Senior Financial Specialist;Ms.Pim-orn Wacharaprapapong,Economist;and Dr.(

5、Aruhan)Rui Shi,Associate Economist.AMRO Director/CEO Mr.Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dr.Dong He participated in key policy meetings and courtesy calls with the authorities.This AMRO Annual Consultation Report on Japan for 2025 was peer reviewed by a group of economists from AMROs Country Surv

6、eillance,Financial Surveillance,and Fiscal Surveillance teams;endorsed by the Policy and Review Group;and approved by Dr.Dong He,AMRO Chief Economist.3.The analysis in this Report is based on information available up to January 15,2026.4.By making any designation of or reference to a particular terr

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1. **经济转型与增长**:日本经济正转向内需驱动,2024年微降0.2%,2025年预计增长1.2%(2026年放缓至0.8%),私人投资和消费为主要动力,企业投资聚焦AI、半导体等领域。 2. **通胀与工资**:通胀受食品和进口成本推动,核心CPI(除生鲜食品)2025年达3.0%,2026年降至2.2%;名义工资增长5.25%(2025年),但实际工资仍为负。 3. **外部账户**:经常账户盈余持续,2025年预计占GDP 4.7%,主因海外直接投资收入盈余(Q1-Q3达5.1%)。 4. **货币政策**:日本央行逐步退出超低利率,2025年四次加息至0.75%,并缩减购债规模,计划出售ETF和J-REITs。 5. **财政与债务**:财政 deficit 2025年预计稳定在GDP的1.7%,公共债务从2024年227%降至2025年221%,但高债务风险仍存。 6. **风险挑战**:短期风险包括美日贸易政策不确定性、全球放缓;长期挑战为人口老龄化和气候转型压力。
日元贬值影响? 日本通胀趋势? 贸易协定风险?
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