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JLL:2026美国养老住宅与护理服务行业投资者调研及趋势展望报告(春季版)(中译版)(24页).pdf

上传人: 1736****123 编号:1199943 2026-04-23 24页 5.24MB

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1、ResearchUnited States|Spring 2026Investor Survey and Trends OutlookSeniors Housing and CareMaplewood PortfolioReport Highlights3Capital Markets4Property Markets10Investor Survey Results15Conclusion23Want more information?24Contents2Seniors Housing and Care Investor Survey and Trends Outlook Spring 2

2、026Maplewood PortfolioTransaction Volume Recovery:Rollingfour-quarter transaction reached just over$24B by year-end 2025 its highest levelsince Q2 2015($26B)Cap Rate Trends:Market sentiment has shifted toward cap rate compression over the past several quarters.In addition to decreasing cap rates in

3、Q4 2025,85%of survey respondents expect cap rates to decrease further over the next 12 months a significant increase from 57%just one year ago.This optimistic outlook reflects improvingmarket conditions and investor confidencein the sectors trajectoryOccupancy Recovery:Outside of major West Coast ci

4、ties,most markets have fully recovered to pre-pandemic occupancy levels,with primary markets averaging 89.9%occupancy and secondary markets at 90%in Q4 2025 coinciding with 19 consecutive quarters of positive absorptionSupply Constraints Drive Performance:New construction starts have declined 77%in

5、primary markets and 62%in secondary markets respectively from recent peaks,and have been consistently below the past 10-year averages.Combined with strong demand,this has driven seniors housing rents to grow 28.8%from pre-COVID levels to an average of$5,479 monthlyDemographic Tailwinds:The U.S.80+po

6、pulationis projected to grow 36.6%over the next decade(compared to 5%total population growth),with over 10,000 Americans turning 65 daily,creating unprecedented long-term demandfor seniors housingInvestor Optimism:86%are seeking to increasetheir seniors housing exposure in 2026Report Highlights 301M

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1. **交易量与估值**:2025年四季度滚动交易量达240亿美元,创十年新高;养老住房每单元均价18.28万美元,同比增29%。 2. **入住率与租金**:一二级市场入住率分别恢复至89.9%和90%,租金较疫情前增长28.8%至5479美元/月。 3. **资本化率趋势**:85%投资者预期未来12个月资本化率下降(2024年仅57%),当前平均为6.2%。 4. **供需与人口**:新开工量较峰值下降62%-77%,80+人口未来十年将增长36.6%,驱动长期需求。 5. **投资者信心**:86%计划2026年增加养老住房配置,辅助生活(40%)和独立生活(29%)为最受关注领域。
**养老地产前景如何?** **投资回报率怎样?** **市场需求大吗?**
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