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国际能源署(IEA):2026能源与人工智能(AI)关键问题研究报告(英文版)(138页).pdf

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1、World Energy Outlook Special ReportKey Questionson Energy and AIINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYIEA Member countries:Australia Austria BelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlands New ZealandNorwayPoland P

2、ortugal Slovak Republic Spain SwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of Trkiye United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA Association countries:IEA Accession countries:ChileColombiaCosta RicaIsraelThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including o

3、il,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32 Member countr

4、ies,13 Association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/termsThis publication,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to th

5、e status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandU

6、kraineRomaniaViet Nam Acknowledgements 3 Acknowledgements This report was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi,Director for Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks,of the International Energy Agency(IEA),in co-operation with other directorates and offices in the IEA.The lead authors and co-ordinators

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1. **数据中心能耗增长**:2025年全球数据中心耗电量达485 TWh(占全球1.5%),AI专用数据中心增长50%,预计2030年达950 TWh(占全球3%)。 2. **效率与强度矛盾**:AI单任务能耗显著下降(如文本查询耗电低于电视),但视频生成等高能耗应用兴起,单次查询能耗可能高出千倍。 3. **供应链瓶颈**:高带宽内存短缺(2025年库存降至3周)、变压器交付延迟(2-3年)、电网连接排队(5-10年)制约扩张。 4. **能源采购创新**:数据中心占全球企业可再生能源购电协议40%,推动小型模块化反应堆(SMR)项目增至45 GW,2030年或部署20-25 GW电池储能。 5. **经济与政策影响**:AI驱动GDP增长或2035年提升全球能源需求1-4%,但政策与技术影响更大;数据中心项目因社会反对(如环境、电价)面临延迟。
AI耗电几何? 数据中心何去何从? AI如何重塑能源?
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