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Milliman:2025年美国公共养老金资金状况白皮书(英文版)(17页).pdf

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1、MILLIMAN WHITE PAPER2025 Public Pension Funding StudyRebecca A.Sielman,FSARichard L.Gordon,FSAR.Ryan Falls,FSAFebruary IntroductionThe Milliman Public Pension Funding Study annually explores the funded status of the 100 largest U.S.public pension plans.We report the plans own assessments of how well

2、 funded they are.We also recalibrate the liability for each plan based on our independent assessment of the expected real return on each plans investments.This 2025 report is based on the most recently published fiscal-year-end reports available for each planJune 30,2024,is the measurement date for

3、three-quarters of the plans in our 2025 study.Some plans have subsequently issued data regarding their investment performance for more recent periods,but that information has not been incorporated into this study.For the 91 of the 100 plans in this study with a measurement date between June 30,2024,

4、and December 31,2024,reported asset levels generally exceeded the overall return expectation since the prior measurement dates,with an estimated 10.1%aggregate return.Aggregate plan assets that were reported as of the most recent measurement dates stood at$5.05 trillion,and we estimate that asset le

5、vels increased to$5.49 trillion as of June 30,2025,and stand at$5.74 trillion as of November 30,2025.We estimate that the plans experienced a median annualized return on assets of 10.9%in the period between their measurement dates and June 30,2025.Our estimate of the aggregate return on assets for t

6、he 2025 calendar year-to-date(January through November)is 11.5%.FIGURE 1:QUARTERLY INVESTMENT RETURNSHighlights Aggregate liabilities reached$6.5 trillion,whereas aggregate assets surpassed$5 trillion The funded ratio has increased significantly over the past few years,from 75.1%in our 2024 study to

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1. **资金状况改善**:2025年美国100大公共养老金计划资产达5.05万亿美元,负债6.5万亿美元,资金缺口1.45万亿美元;截至2025年11月,资产增至5.74万亿美元,缺口缩窄至1.04万亿美元,资金比率从77.7%升至84.7%。 2. **投资回报强劲**:2024年6月至2025年6月,资产中位数回报率10.9%;2025年1-11月回报率11.5%。 3. **现金流压力**:预计2025-2026年雇主与雇员贡献2890亿美元,但需支付3870亿美元养老金及费用,净流出980亿美元。 4. **负债与利率**:总负债6.5万亿美元,中位数资金利率7.0%(较2024年下降),独立测算回报率中位数7.14%,略高于计划利率。 5. **资产配置**:持续转向另类投资(如私募股权、房地产),2025年占比34%(较2013年上升11个百分点)。
养老金缺口有多大? 资产回报率有多高? 资金缺口会缩小吗?
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