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东南亚研究所(ISEAS):2026年东南亚国家态势调查报告(中译版)(80页).pdf

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1、2026 Survey ReportThe State ofSoutheast AsiaThe State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey Report is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and available electronically at www.iseas.edu.sgIf you have any comments or enquiries about the survey,please email us at asciseas.ed

2、u.sgPublished on 7 April 2026Print ISSN:27375102Digital ISSN:27375110REPORT COMPILED AND WRITTEN BY:Joanne LinMelinda MartinusKristina FongPham Thi Phuong ThaoIndira Zahra AridatiSasitharan GauriThe report can be cited as:Lin,J.et al.,The State of Southeast Asia:2026 Survey Report(Singapore:ISEAS-Yu

3、sof Ishak Institute,2026)The authors are researchers at the ASEAN Studies Centre,ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace,Singapore 119614Tel:(65)6870 4509 Fax:(65)6778 1735All rights reserved.ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute(formerly Institute of Southeast Asian S

4、tudies)is an autonomous organisation established in 1968.It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political,security,and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment.The Institutes research programmes are grouped under Regional

5、 Economic Studies(RES),Regional Social and Cultural Studies(RSCS)and Regional Strategic and Political Studies(RSPS),as well as six Country Study Programmes.The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre(ASC)and the Singapore APEC Study Centre.The ASEAN Studies Centre(ASC)was established in 2

6、008 to research on issues pertaining to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)as an institution and a process.Through research,publications,conferences,media engagement and outreach activities,ASC seeks to promote greater understanding of ASEAN and to contribute toward regional cooperatio

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1. **核心挑战**:东南亚首要挑战为气候变化(60.0%),其次是大国经济紧张(51.7%)和国内政治不稳(46.1%)。 2. **地缘关切**:特朗普领导下的美国(51.9%)和南海行为(48.2%)为首要地缘担忧;中国南海侵权(51.7%)和冲突风险(45.2%)最受关注。 3. **东盟角色**:34.7%认为东盟行动迟缓,38.9%肯定其调解柬泰边境冲突的努力;55.2%主张增强东盟韧性以应对大国压力。 4. **大国影响**:中国仍是经济(55.9%)和政治(40.0%)影响力最大国家,52%倾向中国而非美国;日本信任度最高(65.6%)。 5. **区域合作**:29.9%认为解决缅甸和南海分歧是提升东盟韧性的关键,42.2%主张加速区域一体化应对保护主义。
东盟最大挑战? 南海局势如何? 东盟未来何去何从?
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