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麦肯锡:2026食品饮料行业现状:快消品领导者重塑增长的战略选择研究报告(英文版)(31页).pdf

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1、April 2026Consumer Packaged Goods PracticeState of Food&BeverageThe choices CPG leaders can make to renew growthContentsCHAPTER ONE How the CPG F&B value equation unraveled 3CHAPTER TWO Why consumers are moving away from incumbent brands 7CHAPTER THREE Four food spending shifts 12CHAPTER FOUR The ch

2、oices CPG leaders can make 21 Acknowledgments 29The slow erosion of value in the consumer goods industry is now speeding up.Leaders need to reshape their portfolios,sharpen their value propositions,and fully harness tech and AIor risk ceding ground.This report is a collaborative effort by Duncan Mil

3、ler,Frank Snger,Jessica Moulton,Jordan Bar Am,Konstantin Habernoll,and Ren Schmutzler,representing views from McKinseys Consumer Packaged Goods Practice.1State of Food&Beverage:The choices CPG leaders can make to renew growthEvery day,consumers make small but consequential choices in their food purc

4、hasesswapping familiar names for private-label substitutes,splurging on function-forward brands with inventive packaging,filling grocery baskets with ingredients to cook at home,and,in some markets,turning to food delivery for greater convenience and a chance to treat themselves.In aggregate,these c

5、hoices reflect a reordering of consumer priorities and the slow erosion of the growth model that built modern food and beverage(F&B)giants.The traditional F&B consumer-packaged-goods(CPG)playbook was built on a straightforward equation.For years,this model translated into steady volume growth,expand

6、ing margins,and rising valuation multiples,which delivered superior investor returns.But the old value creation modelwhich hinged on mass-market brand building and product innovation,partnering closely with grocers for broad distribution,driving costs out of the operating model,and using M&A to cons

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1. **CPG行业增长模式瓦解**:传统价值方程式(品牌建设+产品创新+广泛分销+成本控制)失效,2023年大型F&B CPG公司TSR下降7%,而标普500上涨9%。 2. **消费者行为四大转变**: - **转向平价替代**:28%消费者增加购买自有品牌,价格低30%且质量相当。 - **追求高溢价功能**:小品牌占美国F&B市场15%,但贡献35%增长(2021-2025),因功能性优势(如高蛋白零食)。 - **为便利支付溢价**:美国餐饮外卖支出占比从48%(1990s)升至58%(2025)。 - **家庭烹饪增加**:全球50%餐食自制,千禧一代增速最快。 3. **GLP-1药物影响**:使用者减少高热量食品消费(如薯片-11.5%、软饮-7%),推动高蛋白/生鲜需求。 4. **CPG领导者行动方向**: - **组合优化**:通过并购/剥离聚焦高增长品类(如功能饮料),如Keurig Dr. Pepper收购Ghost。 - **产品与品牌重建**:强化功能、性价比(如PepsiCo的Sting),利用AI加速创新(如Mondelēz AI配方引擎)。
品牌如何突围? 消费者为何抛弃大牌? CPG增长新在哪?
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