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世界经济论坛:2026代际前瞻:构建长期责任治理之路研究报告(英文版)(57页).pdf

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1、Intergenerational Foresight:An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in GovernanceH A N D B O O KM A R C H 2 0 2 6Images:Getty ImagesContentsForeword 4Executive summary 5Introduction 6From specialist practice to institutional capability 7The Future50 initiative 7Purpose and scope of this handbook 71

2、.Defining intergenerational foresight 82.Core principles of intergenerational foresight 92.1 Future50 as proof of concept 93.From principles to practice:regional provocations 103.1 Provocations as strategic inquiry 103.2 Shaping the contributions 10A.Europe and Eurasia 11Regional context:pressure on

3、 legitimacy and long-term agency 12System dynamics:how future agency is quietly eroded 12Rationale:reclaiming temporal sovereignty 12Illustrative pathways 13Global relevance 13B.Middle East and North Africa 15Regional context:growth with persistent asymmetries 16System dynamics:when growth reinforce

4、s inequality 17Rationale:realigning visibility,legitimacy and contribution 18Illustrative pathways 18Global relevance 19C.North America and the Caribbean 20Regional context:rapid innovation and deepening vulnerability 21System dynamics:crisis response that reproduces fragility 21Illustrative case:Hu

5、rricane Melissa in Jamaica 22Rationale:bailouts as foresight leverage points 23Illustrative pathways 23Global relevance 24Intergenerational Foresight:An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance2Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a projec

6、t,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Member

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1. **核心概念**:提出“代际远见”(Intergenerational Foresight),强调通过多代际、跨地域的协作决策,平衡短期压力与长期责任,提升决策的合法性与韧性。 2. **区域挑战**: - **欧洲与欧亚**:人口老龄化(2050年65岁以上人口占比约25%)与民主信任下降,需通过“未来选择指数”(FOI)保障代际决策自主权。 - **中东与北非**:创业融资不平等(如女性仅获1.2%风投,沙特占区域40%风投资金),需以“贡献锚定可见性”重构创新生态。 3. **实践原则**:扩展时间维度、整合多元视角、共享决策权威、强化系统意识,通过“挑衅式提问”打破传统决策框架。 4. **全球意义**:代际远见可应对气候、技术等长期挑战,如将治理目标从“控制”转向“选择权保留”,重塑领导力为“代际受托责任”。
如何定义代际远见? 何为未来选择指数? 何为时间主权?
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