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世邦魏理仕:2026中国“十五五”规划解读-国家发展目标及其对房地产市场的影响报告(中译版)(13页).pdf

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1、Major ReportChinas 15thFive-Year PlanHighlights&Implications for Commercial Real EstateCBRE RESEARCHMARCH 20262CBRE RESEARCH 2026 CBRE,INC.Chinas 15th Five-Year Plan|Highlights&Implications for Commercial Real EstateUpdate header text All content layouts within the template are references and Key De

2、velopment Targets under the 15th Five-Year Plan(FYP)ObjectiveIndicator14th FYP Target14th FYP Actual15 th FYP TargetHigh-Quality DevelopmentAnnual GDP growthMaintained within a reasonable range,set annually as appropriateCBRE Forecast:5.5%5.4%Effective quality improvement and reasonable growthCBRE F

3、orecast:4.5-5%Annual growth in labour productivityHigher than GDP growth6%GDP growthTertiary industries as%of GDP*-57.7%Capacity expansion and quality improvement in service industryTechnological innovationR&D Intensity 7%10%7%High-value invention patents per 10,000 people*1216 22 Digital economy as

4、%of GDP*10%10.5%12.5%New-Type UrbanisationPopulation*Promoting moderate fertility levels1,404.89 million peopleAdapting to population and demand changesUrbanisation rate*65%67%71%Land useNew construction land within 29.5 millionmu.,3 millionmu.less than 13th Five-Year-Plan26.974 million mu.(91.4%of

5、target)1New construction land not for commercial realestatedevelopment,more for revitalising existing parcelsBoosting ConsumptionAnnual growth in per capita disposable incomeIn sync with GDP growth5%In line with GDP growthSurveyed urban unemployment rate 5.5%5.2%20%25%CO2 emissions per unit of GDP*D

6、own 18%-Down17%01Note:*for end-of-period goals and for goals during the period.Note 1:Ministry of Natural Resources Summary and Press Release,September 2025.Source:National 14th,National Five-Year-Plan,15th Five-Year-Plan,National Bureau of Statistics,CBRE Research,March 2026.TARGETSHighlights&Impli

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1. **经济目标**:15th FYP未设具体GDP增长目标,强调高质量增长,预计2026年GDP增速4.5-5%;R&D强度目标>7%,数字经济占GDP比重目标12.5%。 2. **房地产转型**:新增建设用地原则上不用于商业地产,聚焦存量土地和住房活化;工业用地续期机制完善,提升投资信心。 3. **行业影响**: - **办公**:AI+需求短期增长270%,绿色建筑租金溢价0.7%-2.4%。 - **物流**:24个综合物流枢纽城市需求强劲,数据中心因AI和算力网络扩张迎来量质双升。 - **零售**:服务消费占比目标提升(当前46%),入境旅游(2025年增53%)带动商圈需求。 4. **区域重点**:京津冀、长三角、大湾区为创新核心,上海强化国际金融中心地位,成渝等培育区域创新中心。
**AI如何重塑办公需求?** **物流枢纽城市机会在哪?** **绿色建筑溢价多少?**
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