安联（Allianz）：2026-2027年经济展望报告：战争迷雾（中译版）（36页）.pdf

1、Allianz ResearchEconomic outlook 2026-27:The Fog of War 31 March 2026Allianz Research2Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 15-17 Developed markets:Stagflation returning Page 18-20 Emerging markets:Triple deficit countries in focus triggers reactionPage 5-11 Global outlook:Escalation risks in a fra

2、gmented worldPage 21-22 Corporates navigating one crisis after anotherPage 23-32 Capital markets outlook:Ultimately a function of geopolitics Page 11-14 Inflation and central banks:Price shock triggers reaction31 MARCH 20263SummaryExecutive The war in the Middle East sets the stage.For the US and Eu

3、rope,we expect lower growth,higher inflation,stronger fiscal pressure and a challenging situation for central banks.Global GDP is expected at+2.6%in 2026(revised down by 0.5pp),inflation at 3.2%in the US and 3.0%in the Eurozone this year(revised up by+0.7pp and+1.1pp,respectively)and trade growth at

4、+1.5%in 2026(revised down 0.5pp).Growth is expected to stay at+2.1%in the US and+0.8%in the Eurozone and deficits will remain elevated:-7%of GDP in the US and-3.0%in Europe,while higher debt-servicing costs limit room for support.Oil prices are expected to hover around 80 USD/bbl at end-2026 after r

5、eaching a record high in Q1 2026 on the back of geopolitical volatility.The Fed is expected to look through the inflation spike and remain on hold,with only one cut in early 2027.The ECB is likely to deliver a+25bps hike to anchor expectations,then pause as growth weakens.Both central banks will tre

6、at the shock as temporary in the baseline scenario,but prolonged energy pressures would trigger a more hawkish response.The Gulf countries(GCC)and Asia remain most directly exposed while China should still grow by+4.6%in 2026.Watch for triple-deficit economies facing recession risks while some commo