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汇丰HSBC:全球保险行业研究:投资方向何在?-2602(中译版)(83页).pdf

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1、Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of February 2026Play video withFaizan LakhaniBy:Faizan LakhaniGlobal insuranceWhere to invest?A new proprietary framework to understa

2、nd the global insurance sector and what creates value,capturing both EM and DMAfter three years of strong performance,we see limited scope for further outsized returnsWe advocate a barbell approach our preference is India,Saudi Arabia and Europe multi-line;we bucket our global Buy ideas into quality

3、&defensive,structural growth,value,self-help,and incomeSP OTLIGHTEquitiesInsurance 1 Equities Insurance February 2026 This report marks our inaugural analysis of the global insurance sector.The objectives of this note are threefold:(1)to identify historical drivers of value and establish a proprieta

4、ry framework;(2)to provide a high-level overview of prevailing global insurance trends;and(3)to outline strategic positioning and opportunities for 2026 globally,bringing together EM and DM.A fruitful three years,four feels a stretch Following seven-years of modest,mid-single digit total shareholder

5、 returns,global insurers experienced a notable three-year upswing:17%in 2023,30%in 2024,and a further 24%in 2025.This rally was primarily earnings-driven,supported by a sector re-rating and strong cash distributions.However,as we look to 2026,we expect the factors underpinning this growth to moderat

6、e.Reinsurance and commercial pricing are softening,with retail following suit.The gap between reinvestment and running yields is narrowing,and anticipated global interest rate reductions will compress this further.Most insurers now trade at a premium to historical valuation multiples,suggesting limi

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1. **全球保险行业展望**:2023-2025年全球保险股东回报率(TSR)达17%、30%、24%,但2026年增长将放缓,因再保险和商业定价软化,利率下行压缩利差,估值已处历史高位。 2. **投资策略**:推荐“杠铃策略”,重点配置印度、沙特阿拉伯和欧洲多险种公司,偏好印度寿险新业务价值(VNB)增长、沙特保险渗透率提升及欧洲多元化业务。 3. **区域表现**: - **印度**:寿险VNB预计FY26-28年CAGR达18%,估值较历史低15-20%。 - **沙特**:受国家保险战略推动,保险渗透率提升,估值已修复。 - **欧洲**:大型多险种公司受益于定价韧性,但再保险承压。 4. **风险提示**:美国个人车险定价压力增大,中国低利率环境持续,韩国短期业绩波动。
保险股还值得买吗? 印度保险为何亮眼? 沙特保险有何机遇?
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