1、CIGARETTE MARKET DYNAMICS IN ETHIOPIA AFTER CHANGES IN EXCISE POLICY AND RATESDecember 2025ReportContents0303Introduction.0404Illicit market developmentsLegal cigarette market.0808Market shares and pricesTax revenue losses 121216161818Key findings.This report is confidential to the National Tobacco
2、Enterprise(NTE)in Ethiopia and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission.The analysis presented here is based on information provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics Africa has relied in producing its report in good faith.Any subsequent revision or updat
3、e of those data will affect the assessments and results shown.Introduction3Confidential ReportDecember 2025oOxford Economics Africa was approached by the National Tobacco Enterprise(NTE)in Ethiopia to examine the size of the illicit cigarette market in the country and to quantify the foregone tax re
4、venues due to illicit cigarette sales.oNTE had a monopoly license for the manufacturing,selling,importing and exporting of tobacco products in Ethiopia during the period under investigation in this study.oAs such,the legal cigarette market comprises entirely of NTEs domestic sales and imports by the
5、 company itself or approved by it and the Ethiopian Food and Drug Administration(EFDA).During the period under investigation,NTE did not import or approve cigarette imports into the country.oIllicit cigarettes are readily available in the country due to smuggling and porous borders,especially betwee
6、n Ethiopia and Somalia.According to NTE,a large share of the illicit brands that are prevalent in Ethiopia originate from countries such as the UAE,Yemen,Kenya,and Somaliland.oWhile Ethiopia already had a large illicit cigarette market prior to 2020,recent changes to the excise regime and the implem
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