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1、DOMINIQUE VON ORELLIEVPGLOBAL HEAD OF OCEAN FREIGHTDHL Global Forwarding OCEAN FREIGHTMARKET OUTLOOK 2023Excellence.Simply delivered.PUBLICUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)ContentsOcean Freight Market Outlook 2023DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 202221Economic Outlook&Demand Development2

2、Capacity3Carriers4Outlook5RecommendationsUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Economic Outlook&Demand Development3Source:IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q4 2022 Update 8 Dec 22;1)Real GDPECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)INFLATION(YOY IN%)JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT INDEXIn many parts of the world,infla

3、tion has peaked following supply shocks emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic,Russias invasion of Ukraine,and rising energy costs.Major central banks are making a determined effort to subdue inflation through interest rate hikes and net asset sales.As a result,financial conditions are tightening.The

4、result is a broad slowdown in household and business spending.Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.8%in 2021 to 2.8%in 2022 and 1.4%in 2023.ObservationsDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 20222022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FCAGR(2023-26)AMER 2.2%0.2%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.9%A

5、SPA 3.4%3.8%4.6%4.3%4.3%4.4%EURO 2.3%-0.6%1.8%2.1%1.8%1.9%MEA 5.0%3.1%3.4%3.3%3.0%3.2%DGF World2.8%1.4%2.8%3.0%2.9%2.9%-101234567892018201720192024F20202022F20212023F2025F 2026FOIL PRICE(USD PER BARREL)020406080100120140J20AJOJ21AJOJ22AJOBrentWTIDEUSCNJPUKUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)2.6 mTEU+3.3%6.7 mTEU+3.

6、8%Market volume 2022 20264Source:Seabury Dec22 updateN O R T HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C O4.6 mTEU+1.8%1.6 mTEU+2.1%1.7 mTEU+2.3%1.7 mTEU+2.5%N O R T HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C OL A T I NA M E R I C AE U R O P EI n c l.M E D15.6 mTEU+3.1%4.9 mTEU+1.5%3.6 mTEU+1.9%23.8 mTEU+3.6%1.5 mTEU+2.7%