ICIS：中国电力市场白皮书2026：双轨并进下的电力重构（中译版）（40页）.pdf

1、ICIS White Paper China Power Market 2026 Power System Restructuring under a Dual-Track Approach ICIS 2026 ICIS China Power Market White Paper 2026 ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report.Unauthorised reproduction,onward transmission or copying of ICIS C

2、hina Power Market White Paper 2026 in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.2 Executive Summary Chinas power system development is not likely to follow a linear substitution,with renewable energy replacing all fossil energy.What is more likely is a dual-track approach which combines“c

3、oal-power supply security”with“renewable energy transition,”dynamically redefining the roles within the power system and seeking a higher-level dynamic balance between capacity adequacy and system flexibility.Since the 13th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020),the share of non-fossil energy in Chinas in

4、stalled capacity and generation has steadily risen:non-fossil energy now accounts for about 60%of installed power capacity,yet coal still provides well over half of actual generation,and most peak and backup capacity.With that,the main hurdle for the power system has shifted from security of supply

5、to ensuring electricity is delivered when it is needed,where it is needed,and in the right form to support the system.This has brought to light two key structural issues on the supply side:first,the need to redefine the roles of coal and renewables within the generation mix;and second,the spatial mi

6、smatch between the resource-rich western China and the high-demand eastern China,along with the resulted mismatch in the timing of supply and demand.On the demand side,widespread electrification,from air conditioning and electric heating to EVs and household appliances,is driving up total consumptio