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德勤(Deloitte):2026年电力与公用事业行业展望报告(中译版)(19页).pdf

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1、ARTICLE9-MIN READ29 OCTOBER 2025Deloitte Center for Energy&Industrials2026 Power and Utilities Industry OutlookUtilities are under pressure to meet the energy demands of the AI economy while maintainingaffordability.Deloitte explores strategies that can help the industry transform faster and buildre

2、silience.After decades of modest growth,US electricity demand began accelerating in 2025,surpassing expectations inmany utility plans.The surge was driven by artificial intelligence training workloads,alongside electrificationin transportation and industry.According to Deloitte analysis,peak demand

3、is projected to grow byapproximately 26%by 2035,testing todays grid limits.1Data center demand alone could reach 176 gigawatts by 2035,a fivefold jump from 2024.2 Industrialelectrification could add 25 GW of demand by 2030,on top of growth in household and commercialconsumption.3At the same time,new

4、 supply is not coming online fast enough.The energy mix is shifting toward renewables,which accounted for 93%of new capacity through July 2025,with solar and storage making up 83%.4 Butthe pace of connecting these new energy sources has lagged.Two terawatts of capacity are stuck ininterconnection qu

5、eues,almost twice the currently installed capacity.5Reliability pressures are also mounting.In the first half of 2025,the United States experienced 15 naturaldisasters,each causing US$1 billion or more in damages.At least three of those events exceeded US$5 billionin losses.6In 2026,the challenge fo

6、r utilities will be quickly delivering uninterrupted or“firm”capacity to stressed partsof the grid.7 Customer affordability will remain a central pressure point as retail prices continue to rise.Theaverage residential retail price is projected to be approximately 4.5%higher in 2025 compared to 2024.

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1. **需求激增与供应滞后**:2025年美国电力需求加速,AI训练、交通及工业电气化推动需求,预计2035年峰值需求增长26%,数据中心需求达176吉瓦(2024年5倍);但新供应滞后,2太瓦容量滞留并网队列。 2. **可靠性压力**:2025年上半年美国遭遇15起十亿美元级自然灾害,电网承压;2025年居民零售电价同比上涨4.5%。 3. **五大策略**: - **可靠增长**:通过天然气、核电延寿、长时储能(LDES)及需求响应填补可靠性缺口,目标2050年核电达400吉瓦。 - **数据中心整合**:超算中心通过AI调度、电力电子及毫秒级响应成为电网伙伴。 - **智能系统**:AI优化电网运维,2027年40%控制室将应用AI。 - **供应链韧性**:本土化生产、双源采购及监管沙盒加速创新。 - **资本创新**:并购、证券化及税收抵免融资,28州探索绩效监管。
**AI如何重塑电网?** **数据中心成电网伙伴?** **核能回归靠谱吗?**
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