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花旗银行:2026供应链金融:人工智能时代持久全球贸易研究报告(英文版)(119页).pdf

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1、Global Perspectives&SolutionsFebruary 2026In collaboration with Citi ServicesSupply Chain FinancingDurable Global Trade in the Age of AI 2026 CitigroupCiti Institute Global Perspectives and Solutions2AuthorsParvaiz Hamid Husen Dalal Global Head of Payables Finance Trade and Working Capital SAndr Car

2、valho NAM Head of Trade and Working Capital SIan Kervick-Jimenez Working Capital Advisory Trade and Working Capital SShalin Shroff Head of Trade and Working Capital Sales,Asia South Trade and Working Capital SGopinath G Data,Artificial Intelligence and Digitization Citi Trade and Working Capital SCo

3、le Langlois Senior Associate,Global Economics Citi RPauline Kontos Global Head of Working Capital Advisory Trade and Working Capital SHelen H Krause,CFA Head of Data Science Insights Citi Global Data IMatthew Moffat Data Scientist Citi Global Data INathan Sheets Global Chief Economist Citi RRobert S

4、ockin Global Economist Citi RAdoniro Cestari Global Head of Trade and Working Capital Solutions Citi S 2026 CitigroupCiti Institute Global Perspectives and Solutions3Erik Rost Global Trade Payables Finance Trade and Working Capital SJennifer Wainer Head of Sustainability Citi Treasury and Trade SSha

5、hmir Khaliq Head of Services,CLuiza Duque Global Trade Receivables Finance Trade and Working Capital SKevin Ciok Healthcare Citi Corporate BMichael Hauser Consumer,Retail and Healthcare Citi Corporate BJoao Paulo(JP)Marchese Digital Assets Citi Trade and Working Capital SJohn Selvin John Product Dev

6、elopment and Innovation Citi Trade andWorking Capital SCiti Institute Global Perspectives and Solutions 2026 Citigroup4Disruption is no longer a bug in global trade its a featureThe global trade landscape of 2026 is based on the new norm of trade incentives and barriers,geopolitical shocks and polic

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1. **全球贸易韧性增强**:尽管面临地缘政治紧张和关税政策不确定性,全球贸易在2025年展现出韧性,供应链快速调整,新兴市场(如拉美、南亚)成为增长引擎。 2. **AI驱动资本支出激增**:预计2026-2030年全球AI相关资本支出达7.75万亿美元,数据中心建设成为核心,贸易融资在供应链中发挥关键作用。 3. **中国贸易结构转型**:中国出口多元化,对拉美(+77%)、中东(+61%)增长显著,电动汽车、集成电路等高附加值产品成为支柱。 4. **关税影响有限**:美国关税虽推高进口成本(从2.4%升至16.8%),但企业通过区域化(如近岸外包)和供应链重组应对,实际商业影响有限。 5. **技术重塑贸易融资**:AI和区块链推动贸易数字化,如票据代币化试点,提升中小企业融资效率和供应链透明度。
AI如何重塑贸易? 贸易韧性如何体现? 数据中心融资新趋势?
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