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ICCT:2026零排放路线图:印度尼西亚车辆技术路径研究报告(英文版)(18页).pdf

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1、www.theicct.org communicationstheicct.orgtheicct.org WORKING PAPERFEBRUARY 2026Roadmap to zero:Vehicle technology pathways for IndonesiaDale Hall,Jeanly Syahputri,Josh Miller,Aditya Mahalana,Tenny Kristiana,Francisco PosadaINTRODUCTIONIndonesia has set a goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2060(Repu

2、blic of Indonesia,2021).Achieving this goalalong with the countrys energy security objective to reduce its reliance on oilwill require shifting from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)to new powertrains that have greater efficiency and use renewable power.A previous ICCT study in

3、 the Roadmap to Zero series outlined scenarios for the transition of Indonesias on-road vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles(ZEVs),estimating the emissions and fuel-savings benefits of such a transition relative to a reference scenario in which there is no policy support for ZEVs(Miller et al.,20

4、25).The study found that to reach the 2060 goal,all new vehicle1 sales would have to be fully zero emission by 2040(the Best Practice scenario)or,if accompanied by a scrappage policy,by 2045(the Net Zero scenario).However,achieving these ambitious timelines requires understanding the relative advant

5、ages of different vehicle technologies as well as their readiness for deployment.Several alternative powertrain designs exist to reduce emissions,including various hybrid vehicles that use liquid fuels more efficiently,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)that allow zero-emission operation for sho

6、rt periods,as well as battery electric vehicles(BEVs)and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)that produce no tailpipe emissions.Figure 1 provides a simplified schematic overview of these options.1 In this paper,we define passenger cars as four-wheeled passenger vehicles with a gross vehicle w

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1. **印尼净零目标**:印尼计划2060年实现净零排放,需从传统燃油车转向零排放车辆(ZEVs),2040-2045年新车需全面电动化。 2. **技术路径对比**: - **BEV(纯电动车)**:当前全球主流,电池成本十年降87%,全生命周期碳排放比汽油车低27%-47%(印尼电网下),TCO已与燃油车持平。 - **FCEV(氢燃料车)**:依赖绿氢才能显著减排,但成本高、基础设施缺失,印尼暂无商业化。 - **混合动力**:减排15%-30%,但非零排放,仅作过渡方案。 - **PHEV(插混)**:实际油耗常超标,成本高,长期减排效果有限。 3. **基础设施需求**: - 两轮车以家庭充电和电池换电为主(全国2200个换电站)。 - 四轮车依赖家庭充电(80%用户),需扩建公共快充桩(2030年目标750个)。 - 重卡需超快充或换电,但电网升级成本高(单站约80万-160万美元)。 4. **结论**:BEV是减排主力,混合动力辅助,氢燃料车暂不适用。
电动车何时更省钱? 哪种车最环保? 氢能源车靠谱吗?
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