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毕马威(KPMG):2026年宏观经济十大趋势展望报告(英文版)(25页).pdf

上传人: 1****1 编号:1123816 2026-02-12 25页 2.30MB

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1、 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau SAR partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong SAR partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KP

2、MG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.KPMG.Make the D 2026Ten Macroeconomic Trends in 2026 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau SAR

3、partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong SAR partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.1AbstractLooking back on 2025,Chinas economic landscape was char

4、acterised by steady progress with two notable highlights standing out.Firstly,external demand remained resilient despite headwinds from US tariffs.This resilience was supported by Chinas increasingly diversified trading partnerships,the growing international competitiveness of Chinese exports,and st

5、rong global demand for AI-related products.Secondly,the pace of domestic industrial transformation picked up.Early breakthroughs in homegrown AI technology,together with increased government emphasis on the private sector and scientific innovation,drove sustained investment in high-tech industries t

6、hroughout the year laying a foundation for new economic drivers.However,insufficient domestic demand remains a persistent challenge for Chinas economy,both now and in the years ahead.The real estate market remains under pressure,leading to a sustained contraction in household wealth.At the same time

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1. **经济展望**:2026年中国GDP预计增长4.8%,名义GDP增长4.6%,供需差距收窄,政策聚焦平衡供需。 2. **宏观政策**:财政赤字率维持4.0%,综合赤字率或升至8.9%;货币政策宽松,预计降息10-20基点、降准50基点。 3. **消费趋势**:服务消费持续增长,政策支持“AI+”、银发经济等新消费,电子发票补贴覆盖文旅、医疗等领域。 4. **制造业投资**:受产业升级和“AI+”驱动,制造业投资将反弹,高技术制造业投资占比提升。 5. **房地产**:政府将收购存量房转为保障房,政策放松限购,推动市场企稳。 6. **出口与跨境投资**:中美贸易缓和利好出口,高技术产业吸引外资,中国企业海外布局深化。 7. **香港角色**:强化区域连接与资本枢纽功能,2025年IPO融资额达332亿美元,全球第一。 8. **人民币资产**:受经济基本面和技术竞争力支撑,人民币资产在全球配置中权重提升。
**2026经济亮点?** **AI如何改变制造业?** **房地产何时回暖?**
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