红杉资本：预测 & 预想的计划（中译版）（35页）.pdf

1、Forecasting&Scenario PlanningPAT GRADY&RAVI GUPTA MAY 2022The objective of this presentation is not to give a comprehensive overview of forecasting and scenario planning.This is tailored specifically to how forecasting and scenario planning come into play when the world around you is changing rapidl

2、y,as it is at the moment.Weve been living in an environment of abundance.In an environment of abundance a rational actor chooses to invest the incremental dollar.The challenge is that the world has changed.The thing that worked yesterday may not work tomorrow,which creates a problem.Today well talk

3、about what it means to build a great business,why the world changing poses a problem,and what we can collectively do about it to set ourselves on a good path.What is a great business?Most people have an intuitive sense for what constitutes a great product or what constitutes a great culture,but not

4、for what constitutes a great business.This could be because the environment were coming out of defines a great business differently than the environment were heading into.One idea that withstands the test of time is that a great business generates durably high returns on invested capital.“Durably hi

5、gh returns on invested capital”boils down into three wordsfree cash flow.SEQUOIA CONFIDENTIALIn three wordsFree Cash FlowFree cash flow is what defines a great business.What it means:Free cash flow for you as an operator means freedom.Free cash flow for your employees or your customers means trust:t

6、hey know that the company is going to be around tomorrow.Free cash flow for an investor is the definition of value.If youve ever looked at a DCF model(a discounted cash flow model),its what underlies all valuation.SEQUOIA CONFIDENTIALHow does Revenue convert into Free Cash Flow?1.Gross Margin2.Opera