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联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD):2026全球贸易更新报告(1月版)(英文版)(22页).pdf

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1、Top trends redefining global trade in 2026Policy Insights Adobe StockGlobal tradeupdateJANUARY 2026KEY TRENDS12345678910Global economic and trade growth slows developing countries will face headwinds.Updating the rules WTO reform at a crossroads for global trade in 2026.Tariffs on the rise increased

2、 protectionism may trigger greater policy uncertainty.Value chains continue to reconfigure geopolitics redraws trade and investment maps.Servicification of trade exports of services continue to grow faster than goods.SouthSouth trade surge developing countries drive global export growth.Sustainable

3、trade environment will continue to be part of global trade initiatives.Critical minerals-oversupply and geopolitics may destabilize trade and global value chains.Feeding the future agricultural trade will remain fundamental to food security.Trade regulations tighten national policies reshape global

4、commerce.JANUARY 2026Global tradeUpdate2Policy insightsGlobal economic and trade growth slows developing countries will face headwinds Global growth remains sluggish.Global economic growth in 2026 will moderate trade prospects,investment flows,and policy choices.UNCTAD estimates global growth will r

5、emain subdued at 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 2026,despite potential gains from technologies such as artificial intelligence.1 Growth in developing economies(excluding China)is expected to ease slightly to 4.2 per cent in 2026,down from 4.3 per cent in 2025,pointing to a volatile external environment.2

6、Major economies will also lose momentum.The United States growth is projected at 1.5 per cent in 2026,down from 1.8 per cent in 2025,while Chinaan essential trade and investment partner for many developing countriesis expected to expand by 4.6 per cent in 2026,down from 5 per cent in 2025.In Europe,

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1. **全球经济与贸易增长放缓**:2026年全球经济增长预计为2.6%,发展中国家(除中国外)增速降至4.2%,美国1.5%、中国4.6%,政策环境恶化抑制增长(UNCTAD数据)。 2. **WTO改革与关税上升**:2026年WTO第14届部长级会议(MC14)聚焦争端解决机制改革,全球平均关税从2024年5.7%升至2025年6.7%,制造业领域增幅显著。 3. **价值链重构与服务贸易增长**:全球价值链加速重组,近2/3贸易涉及其中;服务出口增速(5.3%)为货物两倍,数字化服务占56%,但最不发达国家仅占16%。 4. **南南贸易与可持续发展**:发展中国家间贸易占比从1995年38%升至2025年57%,非洲超半数出口流向南方市场;欧盟碳边境调整机制2026年全面实施。 5. **关键矿物与农业贸易风险**:锂、钴等矿物价格较2021年峰值跌18-39%,出口限制加剧供应波动;化肥价格飙升,冲击全球粮食安全。
贸易新趋势? 南南贸易崛起? 绿色贸易挑战?
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