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CRU大宗商品研究所:2026年大宗商品展望报告(中译版)(55页).pdf

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1、Commodity Outlookfor Independent expert intelligenceIndependent expert intelligenceCommodity Outlook for 20262Contents410283948 3 Introductionby Chris Houlden,Divisional Managing Director,Head of Analysis 4 Economic Top Callsby Alex Tuckett 10 Steel Top Callsby Josh Spoores,Erik Hedborg,James Campbe

2、ll 14 Stainless Steel Value Chain Top Callsby Yuriy Vlasov,Nikhil Shah,Biagio Olivieri,Tong Tong 19 Aluminium Value Chain Top Callsby Paul Wlliams,Wan Ling 23 Copper Top Callsby Robert Edwards 28 Battery Materials Top Callsby Jessica Alves,Cameron Hughes,Thomas Matthews 33 Zinc Top Callsby Olga Hept

3、ing 36 Precious Metals Top Callsby Kirill Kirilenko 39 Wire&Cable Top Callsby Aisling Hubert,Ahmed Ali 43 Speciality Materials:Carbon Products,Silicon,Tin Top Callsby Chenfei Wang,Elijah Santos,Sabrina Lu,Tom Langston 48 Fertilizers Top Callsby Peter Harrisson,Gavin Ju,Charlie Stephen,Mariana Fortun

4、a,Alex Chreky 51 AuthorsINDEXClick on a heading to jump to the corresponding section本报告所中的数据、洞察及预测,均基于CRU专业研究与分析服务,扫描下方二维码,了解更多。Click here to request a demoIndependent expert intelligenceCommodity Outlook for 20263INTRODUCTIONGlobal ThemesUnderstanding and confidently navigating todays highly uncert

5、ain metals,mining and fertilizer markets requires more than standalone data points.It requires supply chain-integrated intelligence,grounded in rigorous economic analysis and a clear,forward-looking view of the global and industry forces,such as energy transition and decarbonisation,which will defin

6、e the years ahead.In support of this,CRU has once again identified the formative themes and trends for the year ahead and we are delighted to share these with the market in our latest Commodity Outlook for 2026.By Chris HouldenDivisional Managing Director,Head of Analysis,CRUIndependent expert intel

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1. **全球经济**:2026年全球增长将放缓,中国将加大对新技术领域投资,全球化停滞但无多边贸易战,美联储降息而欧央行按兵不动,布伦特原油均价预计56美元/桶(2020年以来最低)。 2. **钢铁**:铁矿石与焦煤价格波动加剧,欧盟CBAM实施推高钢价,美国232关税对加墨或部分放宽,非洲资源民族主义蔓延(如加蓬锰矿出口禁令)。 3. **电池材料**:中国成最大锂供应国,高端LFP技术加速,储能需求激增但供应链“牛鞭效应”凸显,钴锂价格涨势难持续。 4. **基本金属**:铜市场趋紧,一级资产估值约4万美元/吨;锌精炼短缺持续,中国或阶段性净出口;铝价承压,印尼产量翻倍至150万吨以上。
2026大宗商品展望? 钢铁行业趋势如何? 电池材料需求增长?
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