硅谷银行（SVB）：2022年第四季度全球经济报告（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、4th Quarter 2022SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business health1122-0147MS-063023OverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Fiscal PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance2The US dollar remains strong.Sizable depreciatio

2、n in foreign currencies vs.the US dollar(USD)is being caused by factors including spiraling inflation,monetary policy complacency,deteriorating trade and lower interest rates.The Fed has indicated that further tightening of monetary policy is likely.The Fed remains focused on lowering inflation.Hawk

3、ish monetary policy is expected to remain in place in the near term.Spread between US Treasuries and corporate bonds remains elevated.Inflation,a hawkish Fedand a“risk off”tone in marketshave caused credit spreads to widen across the credit ratings spectrum.Central banks employ more restrictive mone

4、tary policies.Global recession predictions,slower global growth and persistent inflation push central banks to remain hawkish in their monetary policy.The yield curve inverts further.While not an imminent indicator,the shape of the yield curve warrants monitoring as a possible predictor of future re

5、cessionary events.The Federal Reserve remains hawkish with three consecutive 75 basis point(bps)rate hikes in Q3 2022.Inflation remains elevated,and all Fed speak is unified in the message to raise rates until there is evidence inflation is heading toward the 2%target.During the third quarter of 202

6、2,the unemployment rate stayed historically low,ending the period at 3.5%,the same rate that it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.Higher wages and savings rates should lead to continued consumer spending.As the reopening continues,the shift from goods to services remains in eff