波士顿咨询（BCG）：2022全球粮食系统的四个未来分析报告（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、 2022 Boston Consulting Group1Four Futures for the Global Food SystemNOVEMBER 07,2022 By Shalini Unnikrishnan,Shruthi Baskaran-Makanju,Alan Iny,Chris Mitchell,Matt Westerlund,and Torsten KurthThe cost of food is rising rapidly,and hunger is on the increase.What will ittake to build a better way to f

2、eed the world?What might the global food system look like in 5,10,or 15 years?Various futuresare imaginable.Perhaps Africa will have achieved far more food sovereignty.Protectionism might cause food prices to rise dramatically.A few Global Northcountries might dominate agricultural trade,displacing

3、smallholder farmerselsewhere.Orjust maybethe world might come together,collaborating to slow 2022 Boston Consulting Group2climate change,boost global agricultural trade,and relieve hunger among theworlds most vulnerable populations.It is,of course,impossible to know exactly what the future holds in

4、store.No onecan accurately forecast precisely how climate change will affect global foodproduction.Thats because climate change and other factorssuch as geopoliticalconflict,high debt burden among low-and medium-income countries(LMICs),and major advances in agricultural technologiesthat will affect

5、the food systemover time are deeply interconnected and subject to very high levels of uncertainty.Unquestionably,the combined impact of COVID-19 and Russias invasion ofUkraine has stressed an already fragile global food system to the breaking point.Prior to the war,a grim combination of inequitable

6、food distribution,increasingprotectionism,enormous amounts of food waste and loss,and overdependence ona few crops had led to massive malnutrition and outright hunger.More recently,exports of Ukrainian and Russian wheat,fertilizer,and other key products havedisappeared from markets worldwide.As we d