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国际劳工组织(ILO):世界就业与社会展望:2026年趋势报告(英文版)(96页).pdf

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1、Employment and Social Trends2026World of Work SeriesX Employment and Social Trends2026International Labour Office GenevaWorld of Work SeriesProduced by the Publications Production and Publishing Management Unit(PRODOC)of the ILO.Code:DESIGN/PPM/PMSERVCover photo Kamilla Sultan/ILO,2025.International

2、 Labour Organization 2026 First published 2026.Attribution 4.0 International(CC BY 4.0)This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.See:creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0.The user is allowed to reuse,share(copy and redistribute),adapt(remix,transform and build upon

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4、.Attribution The user must indicate if changes were made and must cite the work as follows:ILO,Employment and Social Trends 2026,World of Work Series,Geneva:International Labour Office,2026.ILOTranslations In case of a translation of this work,the following disclaimer must be added along with the at

5、tribution:This is a translation of a copyrighted work of the International Labour Organization(ILO).This translation has not been prepared,reviewed or endorsed by the ILO and should not be considered an official ILO translation.The ILO disclaims all responsibility for its content and accuracy.Respon

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1. **全球失业率稳定但就业质量堪忧**:2026年全球失业率预计维持在4.9%(约1860万人),但极端贫困工人达2.84亿(日收入不足3美元),非正规就业工人增至21亿(57.7%)。 2. **青年与女性就业挑战突出**:全球青年失业率12.4%,NEET比例20.0%(2.57亿);女性劳动参与率比男性低24.2个百分点,青年女性NEET比例更高。 3. **经济增长与生产力疲软**:2026年全球GDP增长3.1%,但低收入国家生产力增长不足,阻碍体面工作进展;全球劳动收入份额(52.6%)低于2019年水平。 4. **贸易与AI带来不确定性**:贸易政策不确定性可能降低劳动回报,AI或加剧青年就业风险(高学历青年自动化暴露率更高);低收入国家被排除在全球供应链重组之外。 5. **区域差异显著**:非洲和南亚非正规就业率高,拉美失业率改善,北美预计恶化;老龄化导致高收入国家劳动力萎缩,低收入国家青年就业压力大。
全球就业趋势如何? AI对青年就业有何影响? 贫困与就业质量的关系?
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