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全球新能源车渗透率,总体呈现快速增长-行业数据
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全球新能源车渗透率,总体呈现快速增长
全球新能源车渗透率,总体呈现快速增长
2024 年 12 月 2 日电池行业剖析 1
行业数据
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所属报告:
电池行业:行业底部反转正当时 关注技术变革机会-241202(165页).pdf
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相关数据
新能源车智能座舱渗透率走势
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2025-01-15
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新能源助力自主品牌份额提升
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2025-01-15
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图38.东阳光以电子元器件产业链为基础逐步向新能源材料产业方向发展
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2025-01-15
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2025-01-15
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行业数据
2025-01-15
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大型SUV分价格带市场空间、新能源渗透率及自主品牌份额
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2025-01-15
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长城人寿增持秦港股份与大唐新能源情况
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2025-01-15
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美国能源部通过ATVM项目资助了多家汽车和零部件制造商,特斯拉是其中之一
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2025-01-15
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国内新能源车产量及渗透率
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2025-01-15
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大型车新能源渗透率快速提升(%)
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行业数据
2025-01-15
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2023年大型车分车型、价格带新能源份额(%)
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2025-01-15
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20万以上MPV分价格带市场空间、新能源渗透率及自主品牌份额
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2025-01-15
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图16.Vertiv主要业务为能源管理和热管理(2024E)
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行业数据
2025-01-15
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图19.智利新能源汽车市场BEV和PHEV的份额
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行业数据
2025-01-14
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图14.墨西哥新能源汽车市场BEV和PHEV的份额
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2025-01-14
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最新数据
2021-2024年产能利用率分位数对比
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行业数据
2025-01-15
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四大一线城市住宅租金收益率(%)
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2025-01-15
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百城租金收益率与30年国债收益率(%)
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2025-01-15
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螺铜比与GDP平减指数(2012-2024年)
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2025-01-15
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GDP平减指数与工业产能利用率(2014-2024年)
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2025-01-15
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2024 年 12 月 2 日电池行业剖析 1
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电池行业:行业底部反转正当时 关注技术变革机会-241202(165页).pdf
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预计归母净利率维持在9%左右
锂电池子板块收入和扣非归母净利润同比变化
2024上半年全球大储(含工商)出货排
2024上半年全球小储(含通讯)出货排
亿纬锂能收入结构:储能占比增至35.9%
全球储能电池装机量预测,预计2024-26年CAGR28%
储能电池对比:亿纬锂能储能电芯容量具备竞争力
储能毛利率比较:系统>电芯,海外>中国
亿纬锂能消费电池收入及增速
亿纬锂能毛利率:消费电池毛利率走强
2019年全球电动工具锂电池装机份额
2020年全球电动工具锂电池出货份额
电池行业盈利能力分析逻辑
家得宝库存变化:4Q23去库基本结束,2024年开启补库周期
2012-2022年公司锂原电池收入翻4倍,毛利率维持30%以上
2022年中国锂原电池企业竞争情况
亿纬锂能动力电池营收规模在内地电池
亿纬锂能动力电池毛利率在电池企业中
亿纬锂能动力电池收入及增速,2024上
亿纬锂能动力电池出货量和ASP
亿纬锂能配套车型数量,乘用车仅占比7.6%
中国商用车装车量排名(2024年前十个月),亿纬锂能商用车装
新能源商用车月度销量
电池企业毛利率:分化明显
以重卡为例,2024年前十个月新能源重卡渗透率提升至12%
圆柱电池对比,亿纬锂能电池能量密度领先
亿纬锂能大圆柱产能规划和量产进度领先
亿纬锂能收入预测
2024-26年毛利润CAGR27%
预计费用率随着规模效应逐渐下降
归母净利润及归母净利率
亿纬锂能前瞻市盈率:当前估值低于近5年/3年历史平均0.9个/0.5个标准差
全球主要电池公司估值比较
电池企业扣非归母净利率:分化明显
亿纬锂能DCF模型
目标价对永续增长率和WACC变化敏感性分析
亿纬锂能发展历史:以锂原电池起家,拓展业务至动力和储能电池
亿纬锂能股权结构
产品布局-“大圆柱+方形+软包”的全形态电池布局
亿纬锂能(300014CH)目标价及评级
预计2024-26年收入CAGR25%
收入比例:预计储能占比逐步提升
预计2024-26年毛利率维持在17.5%左右
海外收入占比提升
交银国际覆盖电池公司偏好排序
预计经营管理改善后,整体费用率下降
预计2024-26年归母净利润CAGR54%
国轩高科股权结构图
大众和国轩的合作历程
国轩高科客户拓展,与多家海外公司签订合作
国轩高科电池配套车型数量,客户结构逐步拓展至新势力
主要电池企业海外产能规划
2023年大众纯电渗透率仅为8.3%,距离50%的目标仍有较大空间
2023年全球汽车销量排名,大众汽车销量924万辆,排名第二
大众新能源车销量给国轩带来的收入增量测算
2023年主要电池企业毛利率:国轩毛利率处于行业前列
2024上半年各电池企业海外收入占比:国轩与宁德行业领先
国轩高科海外毛利率高于中国
国轩高科海外收入占比变化
中国动力电池装机比例(按正极材料)
三元电池市场份额(2023年)
LFP电池市场份额(2023年)
国轩高科LFP电芯能量密度
主流电池厂动力电池产品比较,启晨L600能量密度行业领先
国轩高科产品布局
国轩高科研究院全球化布局
国轩高科研发费用率近年来均维持在6%以上
国轩高科收入预测
国轩高科收入及增速
国轩高科毛利润及毛利率
国轩高科费用率变化趋势
国轩高科归母净利润及归母净利率
国轩高科前瞻市盈率:当前市盈率较近5年/近3年历史平均低0.8个/0.5个标准差
国轩高科DCF模型
中国新能源车销量和渗透率
公司员工持股计划和股票期权激励计划(单位:亿元,%)
国轩高科管理层情况
国轩高科(002074CH)目标价和评级
预计2024-26年出货量CAGR23%
收入比例:预计储能占比提升
预计毛利率稳中微升
预计费用率整体呈下降趋势
预计归母净利润呈上升趋势
WIND电池指数PETTM,当前估值和近三年历史平均接近
部分美国和欧洲车企电动车战略调整
中创新航收入预测
中创新航财务预测
中国主要电池公司估值比较
中创新航DCF模型
2023年中创新航配套客户装机量及占比
中创新航电池装车量与广汽埃安销量保
近年来中创新航客户集中度有所下降,
相较其他电池企业,中创新航客户集中
中创新航中国新能源车装车量市场份额变化,2024年1-10月下滑
全球新能源车渗透率,总体呈现快速增长
宁德时代对中创新航的诉讼
不同国家储能系统价格
不同国家储能系统毛利率
相较其它电池厂商,中创新航海外业务拓展进度较为缓慢,导致
主要电池产生海外产能规划:相较宁德、国轩高科,中创新航进度较慢
讀20者23年全球储能电池出货量,中创新航落后同行
中创新航“顶流”和“至”两大系列产品及“无界”全固态电池
中创新航“至久”系列产品
中国电池厂商固态电池进展
2024年前六个月全球主要国家新能源车
中创新航股权结构图
公司管理层简介
中创新航产能
中创新航(3931HK)目标价和评级
得益于出货量提升,预计2024-26年收
储能是公司主要收入支柱,预计未来占
得益于下游需求强劲,预计2024-26年
预计未来三年动力/储能ASP维持在每
得益于规模优势,预计毛利率微升,费
预计公司未来三年仍处于亏损
全球新能源车销量测算,2024-26年销量CAGR11%
瑞浦兰钧收入预测
瑞浦兰钧财务预测
瑞浦兰钧DCF模型
2019年以来的中国新能源汽车零售渗透率
2019年以来的中国新能源汽车月度销量
中国动力电池当月装车量,持续保持同比高增
储能电池出货量(按国家/地区)
全球储能电池新增装机量预测,预计2024-26年CAGR28%
全球储能电池装机量预测,预计2024-26
瑞浦兰钧储能电池收入,预计2024-26
瑞浦兰钧各业务收入占比
全球储能电池出货量排名,瑞浦兰钧排名第四
瑞浦兰钧动力电池收入,预计2024-26年CAGR17.9%
中国动力电池企业装车量排名(2024年前十个月)
瑞浦兰钧产能规划
瑞浦兰钧研发费用持续增长
瑞浦兰钧重点研发技术
2024年瑞浦兰钧推出PHEV系列电池
2024年全球储能结构,预计中美欧仍占
问顶系列电池
瑞浦兰钧股权结构
瑞浦兰钧海外收入,2020-2023年CAGR
永青集团工业园区分布,有望助力瑞浦兰钧海外业务拓展
动力电池ASP比较,瑞浦兰钧有较大折
储能电池ASP比较,瑞浦兰钧有较大折
瑞浦兰钧毛利率长期处于低位
瑞浦兰钧归母净利润,仍处于亏损
电池企业毛利率比较,瑞浦兰钧毛利率较低
中国储能采招标规模
运营效率:瑞浦兰钧vs宁德时代
瑞浦兰钧历史
瑞浦兰钧管理层
瑞浦兰钧(666HK)目标价和评级
美国储能装机量预测,大储主导,2024-
IRA发布前储能系统ITC比例
锂电行业公募基金持仓变化,配置比例和持股市值占比均达到2021年以来高位
美国IRA更新前后储能税收抵免对比
欧洲储能新增装机量预测,2024-26年
2024年发布的部分储能电池对比,大电芯成为趋势
大储招标项目中,314Ah电芯占比提升
2024上半年储能电芯出货比例,314Ah电芯渗透率达到了9.7%
图表36不同国家储能系统价格
2023年中国动力电池出口量约整体销量的21%
海外动力电池市占率:中企市场份额提升,韩企和日企下滑
LFP电芯价格和成本价接近,均约为0.35元/Wh
拜登政府对中国进口商品加征关税
中美电芯成本比较(美元/KWh)
部分中国电池厂商海外产能布局
动力电芯价格走势
储能电芯价格走势
方形磷酸铁锂成本测算
各大锂矿企业减产/停产检修情况
2021-24年月度降价车型数量
动力电池的装车率走低,2024年前十个月累计装车率为48%
预计中国整车厂动力电池库存接近300GWh
低空经济相关政策
2024上半年中国整车厂合作电池供应商数量
整车厂自建电池厂毛利率提升对电池价格和自建电池厂毛利率敏感性测算
中国动力电池投资交易事件及金额,
中国实现装车动力电池企业数量,截至
中国动力电池装车市场份额变化:宁德和比亚迪占七成且格局稳
电池能量密度变化,全固态电池是远期目标
各国固态电池政策
固态电池vs半固态电池vs液态电池
海外电池厂商固态电池进展
中国电池厂商固态电池进展,普遍预期2027年实现小批量生产
万得低空经济指数和万得固态电池指数涨跌幅呈现较高的一致性(2024年初至今)
固态电池产业链升级
中国各企业半固态电池布局
按车型划分的动力电池装车量:插混占比占比增大
按车型划分新能源车销量,2024年前十
乘用车单车带电量,插混乘用车不足纯电
2024年以来部分混动/增程电池发布
交银国际电池行业覆盖公司
毛利率比较:宁德盈利能力领先行业
质保发生率比较:宁德质量领先行业
电池能量密度比较:宁德的神行电池和麒麟电池领先行业
全球动力和储能电池装机量测算,2024-26年CAGR14%,储能占比
收入:预计2024-26年CAGR10%
毛利率:预计2024-26年~26%
收入结构:预计储能占比提升
收入结构:海外占比逐渐提升
费用率:预计整体稳中有降
净利润率:预计将逐步提升
宁德时代收入预测
宁德时代财务预测
宁德时代前瞻市盈率:当前估值低于近5年/近3年历史平均0.7个/0.1个标准差
中国电池出口占比:2023年达到20%
宁德时代DCF模型
宁德时代毛利率远高于行业平均
2023年锂电企业单Wh毛利对比
2024上半年锂电企业单Wh毛利对比
电池厂质保金计提情况,宁德质保计提比例高于同行
宁德时代折旧测算,预计2024-25年折旧仍是高位,2026年之后折旧开始降低
多数二三线电池厂商资金压力大,扩产能力有限
电池行业资本开支高峰时期已过
2023年全球动力电池装车量占比
宁德时代分红:2023年分红比例提升至50%
2023年电池企业分红比例比较
2023年电池企业股息率比较
宁德时代毛利率,海外毛利率显著高于中国
2024上半年海外收入占比:宁德时代领先多数二三线电池厂商
海外动力电池市占率:宁德时代已超越LGEnergy排名第一
主要电池企业欧洲产能布局
宁德时代海外工厂布局,欧洲114GWh,美国采用LRS模式
中国动力电池市占率:2024上半年宁德时代结束下滑趋势
瑞浦兰钧海外收入占比2023年提升至8%
2023年美国储能装机结构,大储是主力,
2023年欧洲储能装机结构,户储是主力,
表(百万元人民币)现金流量
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