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2020年电池能源材料供应链机会展望报告- 美国能源部(英文版)(95页).pdf

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2020年电池能源材料供应链机会展望报告- 美国能源部(英文版)(95页).pdf

1、Battery Critical Materials Supply Chain Opportunities June 29, 2020 energy.gov Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg energy.gov Assistant Secretary for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Daniel R. Simmons A/S Frank Fannon U.S. Department of State Bureau of Energy Res

2、ources LithiumLithium- -Ion Battery Critical Materials Challenges Ion Battery Critical Materials Challenges related to Electric Vehicles related to Electric Vehicles Collaborative presentationCollaborative presentationAdvanced Manufacturing Office Geothermal Technology Office Vehicle Technologies Of

3、fice June 29, 2020 David Howell, VTO Helena Khazdozian, AMO Sean Porse, GTO Samm Gillard, VTO 2 2U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Anticipated Rise in Electric Vehicle PurchasesAnticipated Rise in Electric Vehicle Purchases Global projection of annual passenger

4、 EV Global projection of annual passenger EV sales is 56M EVs in 2040sales is 56M EVs in 20401 1 17% (9.6M EVs) of those sales will be in the US market 9.6M EVs equates to approximately a $100 billion battery market 2018 markets2018 markets2 2of similar size:of similar size: Smart phones ($79 billio

5、n) Gas stations ($110 billion) Passenger Car/auto manufacturing ($112 billion) 1Source: Bloomberg NEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 2Source: IBIS World, Market Size Statistics - United States 2018 NAICS Reports 3 3U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY EVs

6、 will dominate the demand for LiEVs will dominate the demand for Li- -ion batteriesion batteries Of the 374 GWh of global Li-ion cell manufacturing, the US capacity was 9% (34 GWh) in Sept 2019 Source: Bloomberg NEF Passenger EVs Commercial EVs Stationary Storage Consumer Electronics E-buses Lithium

7、 Battery development and production is a strategic imperative for the US, both as part of the clean energy transition and as a key component for the competitiveness of the US automotive industry 4 4U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Global Lithium Ion Cell Produ

8、ctionGlobal Lithium Ion Cell Production Li-ion Battery Manufacturing Planned (blue) or Under Construction (red) Li-ion cell manufacturing is strongest in China, the U.S., Asia, and Europe. China has almost 80% of the current global LIB cell manufacturing capacity (360 GWh) as well as almost 60% of t

9、he 1000 GWh planned and under construction. The U.S. is the second-largest manufacturer at 9% of current global capacity, with the Tesla- Panasonic plants in Nevada comprising the majority. The U.S. also has 12% of the facilities planned/under construction. New legislation is driving significant gro

10、wth in manufacturing in Europe. Updated 6/21/20 Sources:Sources:NREL Analysis 2020, BNEF, others 5 5U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Global Battery Supply Global Battery Supply - - CobaltCobalt The majority of cobalt is produced in the DRC and is processed in

11、China, for both battery and steel manufacturing. Once cobalt goes to China, very little of it is made available for battery manufacturing elsewhere. Cobalt flowing through the U.S. supply chain primarily comes from steel recycling operations, with a small amount of domestic mining in Michigan and fr

12、om mine tailings in Missouri. 6 6U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Global Battery Supply Global Battery Supply Lithium Lithium Lithium trade is similar to cobalt in that China imports the majority of lithium and uses it in its domestic industry. One significant

13、 difference, however, is that the supply of lithium is more diverse and most refining companies obtain their supply from numerous sources. There is significant trade among nations except China in the LIB and EV sectors. 7 7U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Glob

14、al Battery Supply Global Battery Supply Nickel (Class 1)Nickel (Class 1) The majority of Class 1 nickel is used in metallurgical applications. Chinas lithium-ion batteries have lower nickel content than those produced by EU and the U.S. 8 8U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENE

15、WABLE ENERGY Lithium Ion Battery Cathode Material TechnologyLithium Ion Battery Cathode Material Technology Critical Materials Content (kg) per 100kWh Battery per 100kWh Battery Pack Pack NMC622NMC955 Lithium Metal with Sulfur Cathode Lithium1313.724.3 Cobalt1950 Nickel60820 9 9U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EN

16、ERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Worldwide Energy Storage Material Demand (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) 2045 Scenario2045 Scenario All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies Recycling Recycling important for important for domestic domestic supplysu

17、pply 36,723 45,179 150,312 0 36,723 45,179 040,00080,000120,000160,000 2019 2030 2045 US Tons Year Cobalt Recycled Material Supply Cobalt Needed EV Market EV Market Penetration Penetration Assumptions Assumptions 2030: 15% 2045: 50% Lithium Ion BatteryLithium Ion Battery Assumptions Assumptions 60 k

18、Wh average 100% NMC955 (5% cobalt content) Recycling AssumptionsRecycling Assumptions 15 Year Vehicle Life 100% EV Batteries Recycled over 3% of the world reserve used for new vehicles. 1010U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Worldwide Energy Storage Material Dem

19、and (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) 2045 Scenario2045 Scenario All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies Recycling Recycling important for important for domestic domestic supplysupply 27,308 95,557 391,322 27,308 99,557 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000 2019 2030 2

20、045 US TonsUS Tons YearYear LithiumLithium Recycled Material Supply Lithium Needed 2.5% of the world reserve used for new vehicles. EV Market EV Market Penetration Penetration Assumptions Assumptions 2030: 15% 2045: 50% Lithium Ion BatteryLithium Ion Battery Assumptions Assumptions 60 kWh average 10

21、0% NMC955 (5% cobalt content) Recycling AssumptionsRecycling Assumptions 15 Year Vehicle Life 100% EV Batteries Recycled 1111U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Worldwide Energy Storage Material Demand (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) 2045 Scena

22、rio2045 Scenario All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies Recycling Recycling important for important for domestic domestic supplysupply 160,000 375,932 1,477,549 160,000 375,933 0400,000800,0001,200,000 1,600,000 2019 2030 2045 US TonsUS Tons YearYear NickelNickel Recycled Material Su

23、pply Nickel Needed EV Market EV Market Penetration Penetration Assumptions Assumptions 2030: 15% 2045: 50% Lithium Ion BatteryLithium Ion Battery Assumptions Assumptions 60 kWh average 100% NMC955 (5% cobalt content) Recycling AssumptionsRecycling Assumptions 15 Year Vehicle Life 100% EV Batteries R

24、ecycled 1.2% of the world reserve used for new vehicles. 1212U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY DOE Battery R&DDOE Battery R&D Materials discovery and fundamental research to understand, predict, and control the interactions of matter and energy at the electroni

25、c, atomic, and molecular levels. Basic Energy Basic Energy Sciences Sciences (JCESR, EFRC) (JCESR, EFRC) Office of Electricity (Office of Electricity (OE)OE) Energy Storage for Grid lithium, sodium, flow, other storage Advanced Advanced Manufacturing Manufacturing Office (AMO)Office (AMO) Support in

26、novative manufacturin g technology R&D focused on significantly reducing battery and energy storage cost, energy, emissions, and improve performance Vehicle Technologies Office (VTOVehicle Technologies Office (VTO) ) Battery R&D for Electric Vehicles lithium ion, lithium metal, solid state Advanced

27、Projects Research Advanced Projects Research AgencyAgency Energy (ARPAEnergy (ARPA- -E)E) “Off-roadmap” Transformational R&D Geothermal Technologies Geothermal Technologies Office Office (GTO)(GTO) Mineral resources 1313U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Electri

28、c Electric Vehicle Battery Vehicle Battery R&DR&D EEREEERE VTOVTO EEREEERE GTOGTO EEREEERE AMOAMO Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO)Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) FY20 Critical Materials FOA Field validation and demonstration Next-generation technologies Energy Storage Cross-Cut with VTO FY19

29、FOA: 10 projects with $45M total funding to advance battery manufacturing Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Prize (led by VTO) Call for lab-industry partnerships to solve engineering challenges for advanced battery materials and devices Battery Critical Materials CMI Analysis FY20 FOA Battery Prize LEEP

30、 R&D Projects Critical Materials Institute (CMI), a DOE Energy Innovation Hub Battery R&D Forward-osmosis technology to concentrate lithium chloride and sulfate chemistries for efficient conversion Physical, chemical, and biochemical recycling approaches Supported by cross-cutting R&D efforts like t

31、hermodynamic characterization 1515U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Salton Sea Timeline of Mineral Recovery Salton Sea Timeline of Mineral Recovery EffortsEfforts 19321932- -5454 20202020 1980s1980s 20012001- -0404 Image: Berkshire Hathaway, 2003 1960s1960s1965

32、1965- -67671968196819771977 1990s1990s 20142014- -151520142014- -1616 1616U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Current DOE Efforts Current DOE Efforts Critical Materials Supply Chain Critical Materials Supply Chain NexusNexus EERE seeks to demonstrate added value

33、in regions where geothermal brines can deliver critical elements such as lithium. Geothermal Technologies SUPPLYSUPPLY Advanced Manufacturing PROCESSPROCESS Vehicle Technologies MARKETMARKET Uniting GTO, AMO, and VTO creates clear-path integration from supply to manufacturing to end-market, with imp

34、roved efficiencies and economics. 1717U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D to Mitigate Potential Critical Material Impacts Lithium Battery Recycling R&D Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Prize Develop Low-/No Cobalt Cathodes Decrease recycling cost Recover critica

35、l and high value materials Reintroduce recovered materials into the material supply stream A $5.5 million phased competition over three yearsA $5.5 million phased competition over three years Innovative Ideas for Collection, Storing, and Transporting Discarded Li-Ion Batteries Low/No Low/No Cobalt C

36、athode R&DCobalt Cathode R&D *Based on: 100 KWh battery pack and NMC622 cathode 1818U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Request for Information (RFI)Request for Information (RFI) EERE is soliciting feedback from stakeholders on issues related to challenges and op

37、portunities in the upstream and midstream critical materials battery supply chains Specifically interested in raw minerals production and refining and processing of cathode materials including cobalt, lithium, and nickel* Future Battery Chemistries and Material Supply Economics and Battery Supply Ch

38、ain Lithium Powder Processing including Geothermal Brines Cobalt and Nickel Processing RFI will inform workshop, tentatively planned for this fall, and inform development of the R&D roadmap as part of implementation of the Federal Strategy Link to RFI: https:/eere-exchange.energy.gov/default.aspx#Fo

39、aId80854fd9-b498-49e7-b8f0-1f34c55ba3fd Submit responses by July 31 by 5pm ET to BatteryCriticalMaterialsRFIee.doe.gov Questions should be submitted to BatteryCriticalMaterialsRFIee.doe.gov *Nickel is not a critical mineral commodity on the list published by the Secretary of Interior. Battery Critic

40、al Materials Supply Chain R&D Battery Critical Materials Supply Chain R&D 19U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY THANK YOU 24 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Questions? U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

41、 USGS Efforts Impacting Upstream Supply Chain for Critical Minerals in Batteries Warren Day Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI) June 2020 USGS Energy and Minerals Mission Area Mineral Resources Program Federal Strategy on Critical Minerals Executive Order 13817: Of 35 minerals deemed crit

42、ical (Federal Register, May 18, 2018), the U.S. is 100% reliant on foreign sources for 14 and at least 50% reliant on foreign sources for another 16. Interior Secretarial Order 3359: Earth MRI data acquisition will target mineral-rich regions, and will also have broad application to energy, groundwa

43、ter, natural hazards, and other vital geoscience issues. USGS tools determine list of Critical Minerals (First version in Federal Register in May 2018). Call to Action In the Federal Strategy (#4): Improve Understanding of Domestic Critical Mineral Resources 26 Briefing Materials Only USGS Earth Map

44、ping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI) USGSs Response to EO 13817 and SO 3359: Earth MRI: Partnership between USGS and State Geological Surveys to generate state-of-the-art geologic mapping, geophysical surveys, and lidar data for the Nation in areas with critical mineral potential. Earth MRI Budget

45、FY 2019: $9.598M FY 2019 State Matching Funds: $2.9M from 29 States FY 2020: $10.598M FY 2020 State Matching Funds: $2.2M from 27 States Seeking Other Agency Partnerships to leverage funds Activities FY 2019: Focused on rare earth elements FY 2020: Focused on rare earth elements and 10 more commodit

46、ies: Al, Co, graphite, Li, Nb, PGEs, Ta, Sn, Ti, and W Briefing Materials Only Components of Earth MRI: Geophysics, Geology, Lidar, Data Preservation Coordinated through USGS Mineral Resources Program Existing Geophysical Surveys Existing Geological Mapping Fine-scale Moderate Usable quality 75% of

47、Earth MRI Funds for Data Acquisition and Preservation Minerals Resources Program: Designs and interprets new airborne geophysical surveys in cooperation with State Geological Surveys ($2.69M in FY20) National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program: Funds geologic mapping and geochemistry reconnaissanc

48、e projects by State Geological Surveys ($2.27M in FY20) National Geospatial Program: Leverages funds from partners to acquire new lidar data ($1.75M in FY20) National Geologic and Geophysical Data Preservation Program: Supports State Geological Surveys efforts to preserve and make publicly available

49、 critical mineral and borehole data and participate in Earth MRI workshops ($762k in FY20) 35% of US with adequate coverage 10 Cooperative Agreements for single topic with uncertain outcome. Briefing Materials Only Middle to Upper Pennsylvanian Underclays Projects 41 The Approach Set up reconnaissance projects to evaluate regional geochemical, geographic, and stratigraphic variabilities. West Virginia (lead) and Kentucky (partner) Geological Su

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