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2019年离岸风能展望报告 - International Energy Agency(英文版)(98页).pdf

1、Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook Special Report Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook Special Report The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity marke

2、ts, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication

3、is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t David Wilkinson (independent consultant); Christopher Andrey and Maxime Chammas (Artelys); Kirsten Adlunger (German Environment Agency), Philipp Beiter (National Re

4、newable Energy Laboratory, United States), Jesper Breinbjerg (Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate, Denmark), Karsten Capion (Danish Energy), Sune Strm (rsted), Lukas Wienholt (Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, Germany) and Christoph Wolter (Danish Energy Agency). Our special thanks to

5、the following organisations, without whose substantial support and co-operation this study could not have been achieved: Danish Energy; the Danish Energy Agency; the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate; the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy; and Iberdrola. A high-l

6、evel workshop on Offshore Wind Outlook, Paris, 13 May 2019 was organised to provide input to this report. The participants offered valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis. Further details on these events are at www.iea.org/weo/events. IEA. All rights reserved. 6 Offshore Wind Outl

7、ook 2019 | Special Report Many high-level government representatives and international experts from outside of the IEA have contributed to the process, from early consultations to reviewing the draft at a later stage, and their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Global Wind

8、Energy Council (GWEC) Independent consultant ASEA Brown Boveri (ABB) Power Grids US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Siemens Gamesa Independent consultant EDF Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom WindEurope Norwegian Energy Partners (NORWEP)

9、 Research Council of Norway Natural Resources Defense Council, United States International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) ENTSO-E and Statnett JOSCO Energy Finance and Strategy Consultancy World Forum Offshore Wind Tokyo Gas Agence Franaise de Dveloppement Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute,

10、 Japan Beijing Tianrun New Energy Investment Danish Wind Industry Association DTU Wind Energy, Germany Shell The World Bank, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Iberdrola Department of Natural Resourc

11、es, Canada Vattenfall European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) GE Renewable Energy RES France Ben Backwell Marco Baroni Harmeet Bawa James F. Bennett Fergus Costello Ian Cronshaw Francois Das

12、sa Ruud de Bruijne Ralf Dickel Giles Dickson Jon Dugstad Fridtjof Fossum Unander David G. Hawkins Dolf Gielen Bente Hagem Jan Hein Jesse Gunnar Herzig Masazumi Hirono Stphane His Takashi Hongo Hu Jiang Jan Hylleberg Hans Ejsing Jorgensen Markus Klingbeil Oliver Knight Ken Koyama Masaomi Koyama Franc

13、isco Laveron Isabel Murray Esben Baltzer Nielsen Susanne Nies Karin Ohlenforst Pak Yongduk Jrme Pcresse, Jean-Franois Petit Qin Haiyan China Wind Energy Association IEA. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements 7 Sven Reutzel Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) Manuel Rudolph German

14、 Environment Agency (UBA) Aaron Smith Principle Power Stuart Smith National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority, Australia Christopher Snary Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom James Steel Department for Business, Energy and Industrial

15、 Strategy, United Kingdom Volker Stehmann Innogy SE Ulrik Stridbk, rsted Bert Stuij Netherlands Enterprise Agency Charlotte Unger Larson Swedish Wind Energy Association Rob van der Hage TenneT Noe Van Hulst Ministry of Economic Affairs continued evolution of the technology; and its role in energy sy

16、stems now and in the future. We undertook a detailed geospatial analysis of the regional and global technical potential for offshore wind, considering areas available for development on the basis of the latest wind resource data, and taking account of wind turbine technology advances. This includes

17、an assessment of the future evolution of the relevant technology in close consultation with major industry market leaders, manufacturers, developers and other key stakeholders. The systems analysis considered the role of offshore wind with scenario-based quantifications, using our World Energy Model

18、 to provide contextual data on the wider evolution of global energy systems. This report provides a deep dive into offshore wind power. It gives a snapshot of where the market and technology stand today and the outlook to 2040, in light of the policy environment and the evolving competitiveness of o

19、ffshore wind. It explores the key uncertainties for the outlook, looking at both the potential for faster growth and the main challenges that could slow development. It concludes with a look at the implications of the growth of offshore wind for environmental goals, energy security and affordability

20、. Offshore wind power today Current status Offshore wind has emerged as one of the most dynamic technologies in the energy system. For the first time in 2010 global capacity additions of offshore wind surpassed 1 gigawatt (GW). In 2018, a total of 4.3 GW of new offshore wind capacity was completed (

21、Figure 1). From 3 GW of offshore wind in operation in 2010, installed capacity expanded to 23 GW in 2018. Annual deployment has increased by nearly 30% per year, higher than any other source of electricity except solar photovoltaics (PV). By mid-2019, there were over 5 500 offshore turbines connecte

22、d to a grid in 17 countries. Policy support has been fundamental to this expansion, including through technology-specific capacity tenders, progress on including offshore wind in marine planning, financial support and regulatory efforts to support grid development. The growth of the offshore wind in

23、dustry has been fostered in European countries bordering the North Seas, where high quality wind resources and relatively shallow water have provided exceptionally good conditions in which to develop offshore wind IEA. All rights reserved. 16 Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 | Special Report technologies

24、and bring them to market. Stable policies supported nearly 17 GW of offshore wind capacity additions in Europe between 2010 and 2018. The United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark together added 2.7 GW of capacity in 2018 alone. China has recently taken strides forward on offshore wi

25、nd and now stands among the market leaders. In 2018, China added 1.6 GW of offshore wind capacity, the most of any country. This rapid growth has been driven by the governments 13th Five-Year Plan, which called for 5 GW of offshore wind capacity to be completed by 2020, and for the establishment of

26、supply chains to support further expansion thereafter. Figure 1 Annual offshore wind capacity additions by region, 2010-2018 Deployment of offshore wind has increased by nearly 30% per year since 2010, second only to solar PV, as the technology and industry have matured Note: Figure reflects date of

27、 connection to grid and power output, which may be before final commissioning. Offshore wind is set to gain a foothold in new markets in the next five years. The current pipeline includes about 150 new offshore wind projects spread across 19 countries. Over 100 projects are scheduled to be completed

28、 by 2021, pointing to further acceleration in the rate of annual capacity additions. In the United States, there are 25 GW of offshore wind projects in the longer-term pipeline (US DOE, 2019). There are also large-scale projects in Australia, Chinese Taipei, India, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Turkey

29、and Viet Nam. In 2018, more than 80% of global installed offshore wind capacity was located in Europe. Around 8 GW, one-third of the total, was in the United Kingdom and 6.5 GW in Germany, with Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium providing a further 3.6 GW between them. Even as a relative newcomer, Chi

30、na already has 3.6 GW of offshore wind capacity (Figure 2). Offshore wind power accounted for just 0.3% of global electricity supply in 2018, but played a larger role in the leading countries. It provided 15% of electricity generation in Denmark in 2018, where onshore and offshore wind together acco

31、unted for almost 50% of electricity generation. Offshore wind provided 8% of electricity generation in the United 1 2 3 4 5 201020112012201320142015201620172018 GW Rest of world China Belgium Netherlands Denmark Germany United Kingdom IEA. All rights reserved. Special Report | Offshore wind power to

32、day 17 Kingdom, more than twice as much as from solar PV generation, and for 3-5% of electricity generation in Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. Despite recent growth, output from Chinas offshore wind fleet in 2018 represented just 0.1% of its overall power output. Figure 2 Offshore wind installed c

33、apacity and share of electricity supply by country, 2018 Most leading countries in offshore wind are in Europe, led by the United Kingdom, though China has quickly joined the top-three and is gaining momentum Market size and key players Today, offshore wind is a multi-billion dollar business, with d

34、eveloped supply chains in leading markets that span development, project construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning activities. The offshore wind industry attracted a growing share of investment in wind and renewable energy in recent years, nearing $20 billion in 2

35、018, up from less than $8 billion in 2010. Investment in offshore wind in 2018 accounted for nearly one-quarter of global investment in the wind sector and 6% of all investment in renewable energy. Investment was particularly pronounced in the European Union, where offshore wind accounted for about

36、half of total investment in wind power in 2018 and one-quarter of total investment in renewable energy (IEA, 2019a). Investment in offshore wind projects is mainly by large utilities and investment funds because the projects have relatively high upfront capital costs: a 250 megawatt (MW) project cos

37、ts around $1 billion. Solar PV and onshore wind by contrast have lower upfront costs and present fewer barriers to entry for smaller players. European companies develop and own the majority of offshore wind assets (Table 1). Denmark-based rsted owns the largest share, and is actively expanding into

38、other markets in the United States and Asia. Germany-based RWE consolidated its share of the offshore wind market after acquiring E.ON and Innogy renewable energy assets in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, and is now the second-largest offshore wind operator in the world. 4% 8% 12% 16% 2 4 6 8 United K

39、ingdom Germany China Denmark Belgium Netherlands Sweden Finland GW Installed capacityShare of electricity supply (right axis) IEA. All rights reserved. 18 Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 | Special Report Chinese companies account for a growing share of the market. Two Chinese state-owned enterprises rank

40、 among the top-ten developers in the industry, with around 7% market share in terms of ownership. China Longyuan Power Group ranks as the largest producer of wind power across Asia, while the China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) previously known for its hydroelectric projects is one of the worlds la

41、rgest energy companies and has become actively involved in the offshore wind industry. CTG set itself the goal of becoming the leader in offshore wind power development in China, and owns five wind installations with combined capacity of 1.2 GW, although some is under construction. Table 1 Leading m

42、arket players in the offshore wind industry, 2018 Organisation Main activities Assets (GW) Market share Headquarters Ownership In operation Under construction In development rsted DOO 2.97 2.79 5.23 12.86% Denmark Private RWE DOO 2.41 0.51 1.83 10.44% Germany Private China Longyuan DOO 1.23 0.40 1.0

43、0 5.34% China Public Vattenfall DOO 0.88 1.01 4.92 3.82% Sweden Public Macquarie Capital Investor 0.87 0.07 0.10 3.78% Australia Private Northland Power DOO 0.64 0.27 0.63 2.78% Canada Public Global Infrastructure Partners Investor 0.63 0.61 - 2.73% United States Private Iberdrola DOO 0.55 0.97 0.81

44、 2.36% Spain Private Equinor DOO 0.48 - 2.17 2.10% Norway Public Siemens Financial Services Investor 0.46 - - 1.98% Germany Private Public Pension, Denmark Investor 0.45 - - 1.97% Denmark Public lectricit de France DOO 0.43 - 1.67 1.85% France Public Stadtwerke Mnchen Investor 0.41 - - 1.79% Germany

45、 Public China Three Gorges DOO 0.40 0.88 6.87 1.74% China Public Scottish and Southern Energy DOO 0.34 0.24 0.52 1.49% United Kingdom Public Notes: DOO = developer, owner and operator. Market shares are adjusted to reflect each companys equity stake across all of its projects. Source: IEA analysis b

46、ased on BNEF (2019). Manufacturers of offshore wind turbines are mostly based in Europe, and the market is concentrated among a small number of companies (Table 2). Spanish-headquartered Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas, a joint venture between Vestas and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, dominated the offs

47、hore wind industry, accounting for over two-thirds of the offshore wind capacity installed in 2018. Together, these two manufacturers account for over 80% of all offshore capacity commissioned from 1995 through the end of 2018. The share of turbines produced by Chinese manufacturers is expanding wit

48、h its focus on the market in Asia, accounting for close to 30% of offshore wind capacity additions in 2018. IEA. All rights reserved. Special Report | Offshore wind power today 19 Table 2 Leading manufacturers of offshore wind turbines, 2018 Rank Company Offshore wind market share, 2018 Offshore win

49、d market share, 1995-2018 Offshore wind capacity sold, 1995-2018 (MW) 1 Siemens Gamesa 41% 63% 13 881 2 MHI Vestas 30% 18% 3 882 3 Envision 15% 4% 804 4 Goldwind 8% 3% 574 5 Ming Yang 2% 1% 113 6 Sewind 2% 1% 306 7 GE Renewable Energy 0.4% 1% 177 8 Taiyuan 0.2% 0% 10 9 Senvion - 6% 1 253 10 Bard - 2% 405 Source: IEA analysis based on BNEF (2019). Another important component in the value chain is the construction and servicing of offshore wind turbines. Between

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