联合国粮农组织:2023年全球粮食市场年终展望报告(英文版)(104页).pdf

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联合国粮农组织:2023年全球粮食市场年终展望报告(英文版)(104页).pdf

1、November 2023Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS ISSN 0251-1959801001201401602014-2016=1002020202320222021FAO Food Price IndexDNOSAJJMAMFJ BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome,2023Food OutlookRequired citation:FAO.2023.Fo

2、od Outlook Biannual report on global food markets.Food Outlook,November 2023.Rome.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc8589enThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organi

3、zation of the United Nations(FAO)concerning the legal or development status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers,whether or not these have been patented

4、,does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.ISSN 0251-1959 printISSN1560-81

5、82 onlineISBN 978-92-5-138359-9 FAO,2023 Some rights reserved.This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0IGO licence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode).Under the terms of this licence,this work may be c

6、opied,redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes,provided that the work is appropriately cited.In any use of this work,there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization,products or services.The use of the FAO logo is not permitted.If the work is adapted,then it mus

7、t be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence.If a translation of this work is created,it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation:“This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).FAO is not resp

8、onsible for the content or accuracy of this translation.The original Language edition shall be the authoritative edition.”Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise prov

9、ided herein.The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http:/www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law(

10、UNCITRAL).Third-party materials.Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party,such as tables,figures or images,are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder.The risk of claims re

11、sulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user.Sales,rights and licensing.FAO information products are available on the FAO website(www.fao.org/publications)and can be purchased through publications-salesfao.org.Requests for commercial use should

12、be submitted via:www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request.Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to:copyrightfao.org.Photo credits(left to right/top to bottom):AllFreeDownload;Shutterstock;Shutterstock;AllFreeDownload;PEXELS;PEXELS;iStock;AllFreeDownload;FAO;iStock;Freepik;iStock;i

13、Stock;iStock;PEXELS;ShutterstockGlobal coarse grain supplies are forecast to rebound in 2023/24,largely stemming from an expected record maize production.Higher supplies should support an increase in global utilization and stocks,while world trade in coarse grains may decline.COARSE GRAINSWorld prod

14、uction of sugar is forecast to decline in 2023/24,after increasing for two consecutive seasons,and fall short of global consumption.World trade in sugar is predicted to contract slightly because of expected reduced availabilities in key exporting countries.SUGARWorld meat production is forecast to e

15、xpand in 2023,albeit slowly,driven by a greater supply of animals for slaughter amid favourable production conditions in some leading producing regions.Meanwhile,international trade in meat is seen heading towards a contraction as high inflation,sluggish economic growth and accumulated stocks lower

16、import demand.MEATDespite an anticipated decline in global wheat production in 2023,global supplies are expected to remain at a comfortable level in 2023/24 owing to large carryover stocks.Global wheat trade is predicted to contract,reflecting a weaker global import demand,the war-related disruption

17、s in Ukraine and tightening supplies in some major exporting countries.WHEATGrowth in fisheries and aquaculture production is forecast to stagnate in 2023,increasing only marginally over 2022 levels.A high rate of global inflation and a strong United States of America dollar have dampened consumer d

18、emand,while the impact of the current El Nio weather event is being keenly felt,with reduced supply of certain species.FISHERIESWorld milk production is forecast to expand in 2023 at a slightly higher pace than in the previous year,reflecting an expected production growth in Asia.Meanwhile,rising do

19、mestic production,increased stock levels and economic challenges in key importing countries could lead to a slight contraction in global dairy trade.DAIRYOcean FreightsDry bulk freight costs across the grains and oilseeds routes mostly edged higher during the six months to October 2023 but remained

20、well below last years levels.While the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to weakness during the summer period,freight rates have rebounded more recently,with robust demand for bulk dispatches from some leading shipping origins despite weather-related logistical challenges.MAR

21、KET INDICATORSAlthough current prospects for 2023/24 point to a likely recovery in world rice production and stocks,high levels of international and domestic rice prices,against the backdrop of an intensification of rice export restrictions,dampen expectations of a discernible revival in world rice

22、utilization and trade.RICEPreliminary forecasts for 2023/24 point to continued production expansion for oilseeds and derived products.While the world consumption of oils/fats is expected to marginally exceed global output,resulting in a slight stock drawdown for the product,world oilmeal carryover i

23、nventories are forecast to reach a four-year high.OILCROPSFAOs latest forecasts point to favourable production outlooks across most basic foodstuffs.However,global food production systems remain vulnerable to risks from extreme weather events,rising geopolitical tensions and policy changes,potential

24、ly tipping the delicate demand-supply balances and dampening prospects for international trade in food commodities and global food security.HIGHLIGHTSFood import billThe global food import bill(FIB)is forecast to reach a new high of USD 2 trillion in 2023.High-income and upper-middle-income countrie

25、s are expected to lead this increase,which will likely be less pronounced than in previous years.Analysis of the food component of the CPI for a sample of net-food importing developing countries and high-income countries indicates a general food price deceleration in 2023.Contents38-75STATISTICAL TA

26、BLES1037MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTSGrains.11Rice.19Oilcrops.26Meat.32Dairy.357695MARKET INDICATORSFutures.77 Ocean freight rates.80Food import bill.83The FAO price indices.8819MARKETS AT A GLANCEWheat.1Coarse grains.2Rice.3Oilcrops,oils and meals.4Sugar.5Meat and meat products.6Milk and milk products.

27、7Fish and fishery products.8Food Outlook is published twice a year,normally in June and November.The June report contains a more detailed market analysis while the November report only provides summary market assessments(Markets at a glance).801001201401602014-2016=1002020202320222021FAO Food Price

28、IndexDNOSAJJMAMFJp 88ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Markets and Trade Division of the Economic and Social Development stream.This report was prepared under the overall guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen,Director and Upali W.Galketi Aratchilage,Senior Economist.Market

29、 summaries were written by a team of economists,whose names appear under their respective contributions.A contribution by the International Grains Council on ocean freight rates for the market indicators section is also gratefully acknowledged.The report benefited from research support from many sta

30、ff,namely,David Bedford,Harout Dekermendjian,Annamaria Giusti,Lavinia Lucarelli,Emanuele Marocco,Emanuele Mazzini,Marco Milo,Fabio Palmeri and the Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics Team and GLOBEFISH.Special thanks go to David Bedford and Lavinia Lucarelli for preparing the charts and statistical

31、 tables and to Elisa Miccinilli for her administrative support.Additionally,the team is grateful to Ettore Vecchione for the desktop publishing and Ruth Raymond for her valuable editorial assistance.Markets at a glanceixFOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023MARKETSAT A GLANCEMarkets at a glance1FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEM

32、BER 2023WHEATContact:Erin CollierJonathan Pound(Production)WHEAT PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS12016020024028032056061066071076081023/2422/2320/2118/1916/1714/15million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Global wheat production in 2023 is forecas

33、t to fall below last years record level,but it should still be the second largest on record.Most of the foreseen reduction relates to lower outputs in Australia and the Russian Federation,following all-time highs in 2022,and sizeable production declines forecast in Canada and Kazakhstan.These decrea

34、ses are anticipated to more than offset production upturns in Argentina,India and the United States of America.The world total wheat utilization is forecast to rise in 2023/24,stemming from an expected growth in the food consumption led by Asia and Africa and feed use components,while the other uses

35、 are anticipated to remain on par with last seasons levels.The increase in feed use is foreseen to be largely concentrated in China,supported by the domestic price competitiveness of wheat relative to other cereals and a larger domestic supply of lower quality wheat this year.Global wheat inventorie

36、s are forecast to remain near their record-high opening levels by the close of the seasons in 2024.The aggregate stock level of the major exporters is expected to rise,mainly reflecting an increase in stocks in Ukraine and the United States of America.As a result,the ratio of major exporters stock-t

37、o-disappearance(defined as domestic utilization plus exports)a measure of global market availabilities is forecast to rise from 19.4 percent in 2022/23 to 20.5 percent in 2023/24.Ample supplies and strong competition among exporters have contributed to a general downward trend in international wheat

38、 prices,which stood 27 percent below their year-earlier value as of October.World wheat trade in 2023/24(July/June)is predicted to fall from the record level reached in 2022/23.Accounting for most of the foreseen decline among importers,China,the European Union and Trkiye are expected to curb their

39、purchases this season.On the export side,smaller shipments are foreseen from Australia and Canada,in both cases reflecting an expected fall in domestic production,and from Ukraine,due to ongoing trade disruptions from the war.Partly offsetting those declines,larger sales are foreseen by Argentina,ma

40、rking a rebound from last years slump,and the Russian Federation(the worlds largest wheat exporter),which would increase its share in total global trade of wheat.For additional analyses and updates,see:FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief http:/www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation Crop Prospects and Food Si

41、tuation http:/www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospectsAMIS Market Monitor http:/www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization d

42、ue to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Kazakhstan,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.Source:FAOWORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A

43、GLANCE2021/222022/23estim.2023/24 fcastChange 2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction 778.3 803.1 785.1-2.2Trade1 195.9 200.0 194.4-2.8Total utilization 774.4 778.6 789.51.4Food 524.5 530.7 535.40.9Feed 147.4 150.8 152.91.4Other uses 89.8 92.9 90.3-2.8Ending stocks2 295.7 315.6 315

44、.1-0.1SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)67.1 67.1 67.20.1LIFDC(kg/yr)41.8 41.6 41.60.0World stocks-to-use ratio(%)38.040.039.5Major exporters stocks-to-disap-pearance ratio3(%)16.119.420.5 FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4(20142016=100)202120222023 JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 o

45、ver Jan/Oct 2022 132 165 130-35.0Source:FAOMarkets at a glance2FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023Global coarse grain supplies are set to rebound in 2023/24,owing to an anticipated strong production recovery.Underlying this outlook are expectations of steep production upturns in Brazil and the United States o

46、f America,where remunerative crop prices have driven up maize plantings.Notable but smaller increases are also expected in China(mainland)and the European Union.Conversely,sizeable production downturns are foreseen in Argentina,Australia and Canada due to dry weather conditions,which have lowered yi

47、eld prospects.Supported by the foreseen greater availabilities,global utilization of coarse grains is anticipated to increase in 2023/24 after contracting in 2022/23.This reflects expected growth in maize and sorghum utilization more than offsetting a likely decline in barley consumption.Feed uses o

48、f maize and sorghum are expected to rise,especially in China,Brazil and the United States of America,while Brazil and the United States of America are also seen to account for much of the increase in the industrial use of maize.After falling to a nine-year low in 2022/23,total inventories of coarse

49、grains are seen heading for a strong rebound in 2023/24,due to an anticipated recovery in maize stocks.With the bulk of the rise in maize inventories expected to be concentrated in the United States of America,along with smaller increases in other major exporting countries,including Brazil and Ukrai

50、ne,the world coarse grains stocks-to-use ratio as well as the major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(defined as domestic consumption plus exports)are expected to rise,with the latter potentially reaching its highest level in five years.World trade in coarse grains in 2023/24(July/June)is fore

51、cast to decline from its 2022/23 level,driven mostly by an anticipated fall in maize trade,along with a smaller foreseen decrease in barley trade.The decline in global maize trade mostly reflects expectations of lower import demand by the European Union and,on the export side,reduced maize shipments

52、 from Ukraine due to the ongoing disruptions from the war.Brazil is set to maintain its position as the worlds leading maize exporter for a second season.The rebound in global supplies this season has exerted downward pressure on international prices of major coarse grains,which overall stood 25 per

53、cent below their levels in the corresponding period last year in October.For additional analyses and updates,see:FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief http:/www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation Crop Prospects and Food Situation http:/www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects AMIS Market Monitor http:/www.amis

54、-outlook.org/amis-monitoringCOARSE GRAINSContact:Erin CollierJonathan Pound(Production)COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1001752503254001000115013001450160023/2422/2320/2118/1916/1714/15million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)WORLD CO

55、ARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argen

56、tina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,the European Union,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the United States of America.Source:FAO 2021/222022/23estim.2023/24 fcastChange 2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction1 507.81 470.51 510.32.7Trade1 230.1 223.9 222.0-0.8Total utilization1 502.31 48

57、1.71 499.01.2Food 223.5 225.9 228.31.1Feed 880.2 864.3 874.31.2Other uses 398.6 391.5 396.31.2Ending stocks2 365.3 346.8 367.15.9SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)28.3 28.3 28.40.4LIFDC(kg/yr)71.9 71.7 72.00.4World stocks-to-use ratio(%)24.723.123.7Major exporters s

58、tocks-to-disap-pearance ratio3(%)13.012.214.1 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX4(20142016=100)202120222023 JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 over Jan/Oct 2022 145 169 138-28.5Source:FAOMarkets at a glance3FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2022The 2023/24 season has encountered weather setbacks associated with the persisten

59、ce of La Nia event until March,which was followed by the emergence of El Nio in June.At the same time,improvements in the relative profitability of rice cultivation have stimulated expansions in main-crop plantings in Asia,Africa and Northern America that should help offset the negative impacts of t

60、he weather disruptions.As a result,world rice production is forecast to reach 523.9 million tonnes(milled basis)in 2023/24,implying a 0.8 percent expansion from the 2022/23 reduced harvest.Total world rice use is seen stagnating at 522.0 million tonnes in 2023/24,as high domestic and international p

61、rices are expected to depress the use of rice for animal feed and deter growth in per capita food intake outside of some Asian countries,Northern America and Europe.Combined with an anticipated production recovery,this could lift world rice stocks at the close of 2023/24 marketing seasons to a fresh

62、 peak of 198.9 million tonnes,with much of the foreseen expansion concentrated in China,Indonesia,the United States of America and,especially,India.International trade in rice in 2024 is forecast to remain close to the 2023 reduced level at 52.8 million tonnes.Apart from Brazil,Uruguay and Viet Nam,

63、most exporters are expected to raise their shipments,compensating for an export reduction in India,where official decisions regarding the duration of the export restrictions and exceptions to them will continue to determine the countrys export performance.Meanwhile,global import demand could be broa

64、dly strong next year.However,if they persist,high export prices could curb African imports for the second successive year,while refurbished stocks could enable some Asian importers(notably Indonesia)to reduce their purchases.After rising for the greater part of the last 18 months,international rice

65、prices accelerated their pace of increase in July and August 2023,amid a stepping up of rice export restrictions by India,seasonal tightness and concerns about the impacts of El Nio on production.Since then,export quotations have eased,influenced by a weakening import demand,the arrival of freshly h

66、arvested supplies and currency depreciations against the US dollar in some Asian exporting countries.Nevertheless,reflecting lingering uncertainties,particularly on the weather and trade policy front,in October 2023,international rice prices remained on average 24 percent above their year-earlier le

67、vel.For additional analyses and updates,see:FAO Rice Price Update https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/commodities/rice/fao-rice-price-update/Cereal Supply and Demand Briefhttp:/www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/AMIS Market Monitorhttp:/www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoringRICEContact:Shirley Musta

68、faRICE PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1 Calendar year exports(second year shown).2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include India,Pakistan,Thailand,the

69、UnitedStates of America and Viet Nam.Source:FAO10012515017520043045548050553023/2422/2320/2118/1916/1714/15million tonnes,milled eq.million tonnes,milled eq.fcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)WORLD RICE MARKET AT A GLANCE2021/222022/23estim.2023/24 fcastChange 2023/24

70、over 2022/23milliontonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction526.0519.8523.90.8Trade155.953.052.8-0.3Total utilization522.6521.6522.00.1Food419.0422.9426.80.9Ending stocks2197.2196.0198.91.5SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)53.053.053.00.0LIFDC(kg/yr)28.528.027.9-0.1World stocks

71、-to-use ratio(%)37.837.637.8Major exporters stocks-to-disappear-ance ratio(%)328.729.830.9FAO RICE PRICE INDEX(20142016=100)202120222023JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 overJan/Oct 202210610713021.6Source:FAOMarkets at a glance4FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023Global production of oilseeds is expected to continu

72、e expanding in 2023/24 and reach a new record high,mainly reflecting higher forecasts for soybean and sunflower seed,more than offsetting an expected contraction in rapeseed production.The anticipated increase in soybean production primarily hinges on expectations of a considerable output recovery i

73、n Argentina and a continued area expansion in Brazil,assuming normal weather conditions in both countries.On the other hand,soybean output in the United States of America will likely decline for the second consecutive season due to reduced plantings.Meanwhile,world sunflower seed production is predi

74、cted to rebound markedly from the previous season,owing chiefly to conducive growing conditions across the Black Sea region and Europe.By contrast,global rapeseed production is expected to drop from the record high registered in 2022/23 due to anticipated harvest shortfalls in Australia and Canada a

75、mid unfavourable weather conditions.As for palm oil,outputs in both Indonesia and Malaysia are forecast to increase,but only modestly because of expectations of below-potential yields.Global oils/fats utilization in 2023/24 is predicted to increase by 2.5 percent from the previous season,underpinned

76、 by an anticipated growth in the food use component and robust demand from the biodiesel sector,particularly in the United States of America.Meanwhile,world consumption of oilmeals is forecast to grow by 3.1 percent,facilitated by expected production gains coinciding with anticipated steady uptakes

77、from the feed industry.International trade in both vegetable oils and oilmeals is forecast to stagnate in 2023/24,with major importing countries expected to be well supplied from their purchases in the previous season.With global oils/fats production seen as falling short of expected consumption by

78、a small margin in 2023/24,world carryover stocks of oils/fats are predicted to contract slightly below their opening levels while remaining above their average level of recent years.As for oilmeals,global ending stocks are forecast to rise further to a four-year high,due largely to anticipated produ

79、ction increases.In line with such fundamentals,the international prices of vegetable oils remained on a downward trajectory after reaching all-time highs in March 2022.World oilmeal prices also declined in recent months,following temporary increases in early 2023.For additional analyses and updates,

80、see:Oilcrops Monthly Price Update https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?querystring=OilseedsAMIS Market Monitor http:/www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoringOILCROPSContact:Di YangFAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICEINDICES FOR OILSEEDS,VEGETABLE OILS AND MEALS/CAKES (2014-2016=100)WORLD OIL

81、CROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE2021/222022/23estim.2023/24 fcastChange 2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%TOTAL OILCROPSProduction619.4640.9666.74.0OILS AND FATSProduction 247.3 253.7 258.61.9Supply 279.5 287.0 293.72.3Utilization 245.4 253.1 259.32.5Trade 126.7 139.6 138.5-0.8Global stocks-to-u

82、se ratio(%)13.6 13.9 13.3Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(%)10.7 9.4 9.7MEALS AND CAKESProduction 158.6 164.0 171.94.8Supply 187.4 189.9 198.74.7Utilization 160.9 161.3 166.33.1Trade 101.2 108.0 107.4-0.6Global stocks-to-use ratio(%)16.1 16.6 17.8Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance

83、ratio(%)9.4 8.3 9.8FAO PRICE INDICES JanDec(20142016=100)202120222023 JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 over Jan/Oct 2022 Oilseeds 139 158 128-19.7Meals/cakes 116 133 126-5.2Vegetable oils 165 188 127-35.1Note:For explanations on definitions and coverage kindly refer to previous issues of Food Outlook.Sou

84、rce:FAO07014021028020232022202120202019201820172016oilsmealsseedsSource:FAOSource:FAOMarkets at a glance5FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023Source:Prices refer to the Sugar No.11 contract traded at the New York Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)International sugar markets are seen to be heading towards a producti

85、on deficit in the 2023/24(October/September)season,as global output is forecast to fall below last seasons bumper level,while world consumption is expected to continue expanding,albeit moderately.As a result,sugar inventories are predicted to decline in 2023/24.FAOs preliminary forecast for the 2023

86、/24 season pegs world sugar production at 175.5 million tonnes,down 3.6 million tonnes,or 2 percent,from the 2022/23 outturn.The decline is largely attributed to expectations of reduced outputs in key producing countries,namely Thailand and India,due to drier-than-normal weather conditions associate

87、d with the prevailing El Nio phenomenon.In Brazil,the 2023/24 sugar production is set to be lower than the 2022/23 record level,while in the United States of America,production is expected to decline slightly due to dry weather conditions.By contrast,in the European Union,the 2023/24 sugar output is

88、 forecast to recover from last years reduced level on account of both an increase in plantings and higher yields.Likewise,a rebound in production is also expected in China,driven by a strong recovery in sugar crop yields.Global sugar consumption is set to expand by 0.8 percent in 2023/24,a slowdown

89、compared to the growth recorded in the previous three seasons.The increase is primarily driven by population growth,while the slowing world economy and high sugar prices are expected to partly offset the upward effect of population on demand.The preliminary forecast for world sugar trade in 2023/24

90、is pegged at 60.7 million tonnes,slightly down from the estimated volume for 2022/23 due to lower exportable supplies anticipated in Brazil,India and Thailand.Global import demand is expected to be subdued,with a significant forecast decline in imports by the European Union and the United States of

91、America,while purchases by China will likely recover after the decline in 2022/23.After retreating in June and July 2023,international sugar prices rebounded,and in September 2023 they reached their highest level since September 2011.The price increases were mainly the result of concerns over a tigh

92、ter global supply outlook in the upcoming 2023/24 season,with higher international crude oil prices providing further support.However,ample supplies from the 2022/23 sugar crop in Brazil limited the increases and contributed to a slight decline in world sugar prices in October.SUGARContact:ElMamoun

93、AmroukFabio PalmeriINTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRICESWORLD SUGAR MARKET AT A GLANCE2021/222022/23estim.2023/24 fcastChange 2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction175.2179.1175.5-2.0Trade*61.862.160.7-2.4Total utilization174.5176.5178.00.8Ending stocks110.7113.0110.8-2.0SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN

94、DICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)22.122.222.10.0LIFDC(kg/yr)12.712.712.6-0.9World stocks-to-use ratio(%)63.464.062.3-2.8ISA DAILY PRICE AVERAGE (US cents/lb)202120222023JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 over Jan/Oct 202217.718.523.326.5813182328DNOSAJJMAMFJ20232022201820202021US cents per lb

95、.2019*Trade refers to exports based on a common October/September marketing season.Source:FAOMarkets at a glance6FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023World meat production in 2023 is forecast to increase to 365 million tonnes(carcass weight equivalent),up 0.8 percent from 2022.The increase reflects an expected

96、growth in production in Asia,mainly of pig meat in China,due to increased slaughter as non-competitive,small-scale farmers exit the sector amid low prices and squeezed profit margins.Production is also likely to expand in South America,notably Brazil,due to lower feed costs,and in Oceania,due to an

97、expanded supply of slaughter-ready animals and increased export demand.These production gains will likely be partially offset by lower outputs in Europe,mainly in the European Union,because of animal diseases and the continued drop in herd numbers,and in Africa,as drier conditions continue to impact

98、 feed and fodder availabilities and conflicts disrupt livestock operations.Northern America is also experiencing output declines due to lower producer returns and relatively high feed costs.Global trade in meat and meat products is forecast at nearly 41 million tonnes in 2023,down 0.8 percent from t

99、he previous year.Imports are expected to decline in Africa,Europe,Northern America,South America and Oceania,influenced mainly by reduced consumer purchases due to rising inflation,sluggish economic growth and the impact of currency depreciations.The contraction in the overall meat trade will likely

100、 be contained by an import recovery in Asia,led by China,underpinned by higher food services sales,notwithstanding higher domestic production and ample stocks.In addition,Central America and the Caribbean could increase meat imports due to a rebound in demand,especially for poultry and bovine meats.

101、Regarding exports,higher shipments are expected mainly from Brazil and Australia,reflecting their animal disease-free status and competitive prices.Elsewhere,animal diseases continue to weigh on trade despite efforts to contain export downturns through trade agreements and the implementation of anim

102、al disease regionalization policies.International meat prices trended downward since July 2023,principally due to increased export availabilities from leading exporting regions,especially South America,led by Brazil and Oceania.In addition,a slowdown in the pace of imports by key meat-importing coun

103、tries also weighed on world meat prices.For additional analyses and updates,see:Meat Market Review https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?news_files=113402 Meat Market Review:Emerging trends and outlook 2023(forthcoming)MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi Aratchilage Emanuele

104、MaroccoWORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE90100110120130DNOSAJJMAMFJ20232022202120212022estim.2023fcastChange:2023 over 2022JuneNov.milliontonnes (carcass weight equivalent)%WORLD BALANCEProduction 356.6 362.4 363.9 365.20.8Bovine meat 74.5 75.8 76.1 76.00.3Poultry meat 138.3 141.0 142.7 142.51.0Pig meat

105、120.8 122.3 121.7 123.10.7Ovine meat 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.01.7Trade 42.0 41.8 42.1 41.4-0.8Bovine meat 12.1 12.7 12.8 12.5-1.3Poultry meat 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.30.7Pig meat 12.7 11.5 11.4 11.0-3.6Ovine meat 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.26.3SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption:World(kg/year)44.9 45.245

106、.045.20.0Trade-share of prod.(%)11.8 11.511.611.3-1.6FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX (20142016=100)202120222023JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 overJan/Oct 2022 108 119 115-3.8FAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDEX(20142016=100)Source:FAOSource:FAOMarkets at a glance7FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023World milk production is fo

107、recast to reach 950 million tonnes in 2023,up 1.3 percent from 2022,reflecting a foreseen production expansion in Asia,notably India and China.Much of the expected increase in global milk output in 2023 is driven by yield improvements and the continued rise in dairy cattle numbers,compensating for t

108、he increased slaughter of dairy cattle,especially in Europe and Northern America,due to squeezed operational margins.In South America,production is forecast to expand slightly,particularly in Brazil,due to increasing dairy herd numbers,higher yields and lower input costs.In Oceania,production is ant

109、icipated to increase moderately due to favourable weather despite rising input costs and the drop in dairy prices squeezing operational margins.By contrast,milk output is forecast to fall in Africa due to the constrained availability of feed and fodder,poor pasture conditions and conflict-induced di

110、sruptions to livestock operations.World trade in dairy products is forecast at 84 million tonnes(in milk equivalents)in 2023,down 1.0 percent from 2022.This decrease is underpinned by an anticipated drop in imports by Asia,principally China,on account of rising domestic production and increased stoc

111、ks of imported dairy products.Import contractions are likely in several other leading dairy importers,including the Philippines,Indonesia and Malaysia,mainly due to less-than-expected growth in food services sales and currency depreciations.However,higher dairy product purchases are foreseen for sev

112、eral countries,notably Brazil,Mexico,Algeria and Saudi Arabia,induced by competitive international dairy prices offered by their trading partners,inadequate local supplies and more active food services sales.Meanwhile,a possible downturn in global import demand,coupled with less competitive prices,c

113、ould lower prospects for shipments from several exporters,such as the United States of America,Australia and Argentina.International prices of dairy products declined from January to September 2023,principally underpinned by lacklustre import demand for spot-and near-term deliveries amid ample stock

114、s in importing countries.This period coincided with abundant exportable availabilities,especially from New Zealand in its 2023/24 production season and limited internal demand in some large exporting regions,especially the European Union.However,world dairy prices rebounded in October 2023,reflectin

115、g a surge in demand,coupled with tight supplies from Western Europe and concerns over the potential impact of the El Nio event on supplies from Oceania.MILK AND MILK PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi Aratchilage Harout Dekermendjian FAO INTERNATIONAL DAIRY PRICE INDEX(20142016=100)WORLD DAIRY MARKET AT

116、A GLANCE80100120140160DNOSAJJMAMFJ202320222021For additional analyses and updates,see:Dairy Market Review https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?news_files=113040Dairy Market Review:Emerging trends and outlook 2023(forthcoming)20212022estim.2023fcastChange:2023 over 2022JuneNov.millio

117、ntonnes (milk equivalent)%WORLD BALANCETotal milk production932.0937.7 944.0 949.91.3Total trade 88.6 84.9 85.0 84.0-1.0SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/year)117.9117.8 117.4 118.20.4Trade-share of prod.(%)9.5 9.1 9.0 8.8-3.3FAO DAIRY PRICE INDEX(20142016=100)202120222

118、023JanOct.%Change Jan/Oct 2023 overJan/Oct 2022119142 119.5-16.6Source:FAOSource:FAOMarkets at a glance8FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023Global fisheries and aquaculture production is likely to stagnate in 2023,while economic factors continue to weigh on consumer demand.Annual fisheries and aquaculture prod

119、uction is forecast at 185 million tonnes in 2023,0.6 percent more than 2022 levels,principally driven by expansion and intensification of aquaculture in the North Atlantic and small pelagics in the Eastern Pacific.In particular,El Nio weather conditions have led to reduced production of small pelagi

120、cs,especially Peruvian anchoveta catches following the cancellation of the first 2023 season.Already in tight supply,downgraded prospects in this sector are expected to result in an ever-lower global supply of fishmeal and fish oil for the coming year,with a cascading impact on the global supply of

121、aquaculture products and livestock feed inputs.World trade in fish and fisheries products in 2023 is forecast at 65 million tonnes,a 4.3 percent decline compared with 2022 levels.Meanwhile,the value of global trade in aquatic products is expected to decline to USD 183.7 billion.Currency fluctuations

122、 continue to have various impacts on trade,with the strengthening of the United States of America dollar already having reduced the affordability of imports of aquatic products not only for many developing countries but also for larger markets such as the European Union,adding to inflation-linked pr

123、ice hikes.Higher prices of certain species and weak economic growth have undermined overall demand for fisheries and aquaculture products.Prices increased in the first six months of the year,particularly for key capture species such as cod,herring,mackerel and tuna,all of which were in short supply.

124、While the FAO Fish Price Index for aquaculture products registered a 13 percent decline between January and September 2023,prices of fish from capture fisheries rose by 12 percent over the same period.Diverging price trends have been reflected in changing consumer preferences,with relatively afforda

125、ble species such as shrimp,small pelagics and pangasius all seeing growing demand.For additional analyses and updates,see:FAO GLOBEFISH information and analysis on fisheries and aquaculture trade http:/www.GLOBEFISH.orgFISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTSContact:William GriffinAudun LemStefania VannucciniFISH

126、PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index:EUMOFA,INFOFISH,INFOPESCA,INFOYU,Statistics Norway.40751101451802023202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000FAO total fish price indexCapture totalAquaculture totalWORLD FISH MARKET AT A GLANCE20212022estim.2023 fc

127、astChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes (live weight)%WORLD BALANCE1Production 182.1 184.3 185.40.6Capture fisheries 91.2 91.1 89.6-1.7Aquaculture 90.9 93.2 95.82.8Trade value (exports USD billion)176.2 188.5 183.7-2.6Trade volume(live weight)66.6 67.9 65.0-4.3Total utilization 182.1 184.3 185.40.6Foo

128、d 161.1 164.2 166.11.2Feed 16.9 16.1 15.2-5.3Other uses 4.0 4.0 4.0-0.1SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer capita food consumption:Food fish(kg/year)20.4 20.6 20.60.3From capture fisheries(kg/year)9.0 9.0 8.9-1.8From aquaculture (kg/year)11.4 11.6 11.81.9FAO FISH PRICE INDEX2(20142016=100)202120222023Ja

129、nSep.%Change Jan/Sep 2023 overJan/Sep 2022 101.7 120.8 125.52.1%Source:FAO 1 Data do not include aquatic mammals,crocodiles,alligators,caimans and algae.2 Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index:EUMOFA,INFOFISH,INFOPESCA,INFOYU,Statistics Norway.Markets at a glance9FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2

130、023Major policy developments10FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023MARKET POLICY DEVELOPMENTS11FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023GRAINS:MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS MID-MAY 2023 TO MID-OCTOBER 2023*GrainsCOUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONAlgeriaGrainsJul-23Production supportAnnounced that cereal farmers affec

131、ted by the 2023 drought will receive seeds and fertilizer to help them prepare for the next planting season.ArgentinaMaizeMay-23BiofuelIncreased the price of maize-based ethanol used in biofuel blends for automobiles from ARS 148.48(USD 0.62)to ARS 155.17(USD 0.65)per litre.The price applies retrosp

132、ectively to purchases made from 17 May until further notice.Maize and sorghumMay-23Export policyAgreed to a new maize and sorghum export protocol with China.The resolution established an updated list of pest quarantines standards that satisfy Chinas requirements.MaizeJun-23BiofuelIncreased the price

133、 of maize-based ethanol used in biofuel blends for automobiles from ARS 155.17(USD 0.60)to ARS 165.43(USD 0.65)per litre.The price applies retrospectively to purchases made from 17 June until further notice.MaizeJul-23BiofuelIncreased the price of maize-based ethanol used in biofuel blends for autom

134、obiles from ARS 165.43(USD 0.62)to ARS 172.76(USD 0.65)per litre.The price applies retrospectively to purchases made from 8 July until further announcement.Barley,maize and sorghumJul-23Export policyAnnounced that barley,maize and sorghum exports in the 2023/24 marketing year would benefit from a sp

135、ecial and more favourable exchange rate from 23 July 2023 through 31 August 2023.The special exchange rate was set at ARG 340 per US dollar,more than 20 percent higher than the official exchange rate.Barley,maize and sorghumJul-23Export quotaIncreased the export quota for maize harvested during the

136、2023/2024 season from 20 million to 26 million tonnes.Moreover,it set an export quota for barley for the first time.The quota was set at 3.55 million tonnes,of which 2.6 million tonnes were feed barley and 950 000 tonnes were malting barley.The quota for sorghum exports was kept at 950 000 tonnes as

137、 established on 25 April 2023.MaizeJul-23BiofuelIncreased the price of maize-based ethanol used in biofuel blends for automobiles from ARS 172.76(USD 0.62)to ARS 199.06(USD 0.72)per litre.MaizeAug-23BiofuelIncreased the price of maize-based ethanol used in biofuel blends for automobiles from ARS 199

138、.06(USD 0.57)to ARS 224.31(USD 0.64)per litre.Maize and wheatAug-23Production supportAnnounced a USD 30 million budget for the“wheat and maize planning programme.”The programme supports wheat and maize producers who have planted up to 150 hectares and who have been affected by drought.In addition,pr

139、oducers receive up to 5 tonnes of urea fertilizer.BotswanaMaize and sorghumMay-23Trade banAnnounced a temporary ban,until further notice,on both the export and import of maize and sorghum.The aim is to ensure food security.Brazil WheatJun-23Food securityAnnounced the procurement of 500 000 tonnes of

140、 maize from rural producers through the Federal Government Acquisitions mechanism with the aim of replenishing public food reserves,resuming a policy that had been discontinued under the previous government.An allocation of BRL 350 million(USD 71 million)has been allocated to support stock purchases

141、,which the government expects to help stabilize prices when supplies are low and to help farmers sell their output at the legally-mandated minimum price.Major policy developments12FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONBrazil WheatOct-23Production supportAllocated B

142、RL 400 million(USD 79 million)to subsidize wheat transactions.The programme introduces a base price of BRL 88 for a 60kg bag(USD 289 per tonne)of high-quality wheat,which is 44 percent higher than the current domestic price.The scheme will ensure that transactions take place at this price level thro

143、ugh the participation of wheat growers,millers and traders in an auction system.CanadaMaizeJul-23Trade policyIssued a statement indicating that it will join,as a third country party,under the CanadaUnited States of AmericaMexico Agreement(CUSMA),the dispute that the United States has initiated with

144、Mexico,over the use of biotech maize in food.ChileWheatJun-23Import tariffDecreased applicable discounts on customs duties on wheat and wheat flour from USD 225.43 to USD 125.19 per tonne and from USD 351.47 to USD 195.29 per tonne,respectively,from 16 June 2023 to 15 August 2023.WheatAug-23Import t

145、ariffDecreased applicable discounts on customs duties on wheat and wheat flour from USD 125.19 to USD 124.63 per tonne and from USD 195.29 to USD 194.63 per tonne,respectively,from 16 August 2023 to 15 October 2023.WheatOct-23Import tariffDecreased applicable discounts on customs duties on wheat and

146、 wheat flour from USD 124.63 per tonne to USD 119.24 per tonne and from USD 194.63 per tonne to USD 186.01 per tonne,respectively.The discounts have a two-month validity,from 16 October 2023 to 15 December 2023.China(mainland)GrainsMay-23Import tariffAdopted duty-free treatment of grains imported fr

147、om the Philippines,including buckwheat,oats and barley.WheatJun-23Production supportAllocated CNY 200 million(USD 28.21 million)from a disaster relief fund to ensure harvests in central Chinas Henan Province following prolonged rain.The fund will be used to facilitate mechanical harvesting and dryin

148、g of wheat to minimize losses in grain production.The fund was jointly allocated by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.GrainsAug-23Production supportAllocated CNY 732 million(USD 102 million)in disaster relief funds to support the recovery of agricultural produ

149、ction,following crop damage and flooding by Typhoon Doksuri in late July.The funds will be distributed across nine provinces to support agricultural flood control and disaster relief efforts,as well as post-disaster agricultural production,and will help subsidize the procurement of seeds,seedlings,f

150、ertilizers and pesticides,as well as operational services that will help farmers resume their agricultural activities and repair affected facilities.BarleyAug-23Import tariffRemoved anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on barley imports from Australia.China had imposed an 80.5 percent tariff on Aus

151、tralian barley during escalating diplomatic tensions in 2020.MaizeAug-23Production supportAllocated CNY 2.4 billion(USD 329.5 million)to support maize and soybean farmers in the north of the country in the purchase of fertilizers and pesticides.The support is designed to enhance crop resilience and

152、reduce losses,as well as to increase yields.WheatSep-23Government procurementIncreased the wheat minimum purchase price for 2024 to CNY 2 360(USD 323)per tonne,an increase of CNY 20(USD 2.7)per tonne over 2023.MaizeOct-23GMO policyApproved 37 genetically modified maize seed varieties with the aim of

153、 of increasing domestic production and reducing grain imports.EgyptWheatMay-23Food securityAnnounced the provision of EUR 60 million(USD 66 million)from the European Union and the French Development Agency to expand silos for wheat storage.WheatJun-23Import policyApproved a USD 700 million financing

154、 facility to support further grain imports.WheatAug-23Import policySigned a five-year agreement,worth USD 100 million per year,with a United Arab Emirates-based agribusiness(Al Dahara)and the Abu Dhabi Exports Office to finance milling wheat imports.The measure aims to secure Egypts wheat supply as

155、part of the countrys efforts to ensure food security.13FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023GrainsCOUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONEuropean UnionGrainsJun-23Import policyExtended the suspension of import duties,quotas and trade defence measures on Ukraines exports to the European Union(Autonomous

156、 Trade Measures)and will phase them out on 15 September 2023.These measures apply to four agricultural products:wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflower seeds.During this period,the products can be circulated freely in all EU Member States,with the exception of Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia

157、,where transit is only permitted through the general customs transit procedure.GrainsJun-23Government market interventionApproved emergency support measures for cereals and oilseed producers in Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia.The aid provides grants to farmers producing cereals and oils

158、eed to compensate for the economic losses caused by increased imports from Ukraine.Aid has been directed as following:EUR 9.7 million(USD 10.6 million)to Bulgaria,EUR 15.9 million(USD 17.3 million)to Hungary,EUR 39.3 million(USD 42.8 million)to Poland,EUR 29.7 million(USD 32.3)to Romania and EUR 5.2

159、 million(USD 5.7 million)to Slovakia.GrainsSep-23Import policyAnnounced that it would lift temporary restrictions on Ukraines exports of wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflower seeds to Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia.Ukraine has agreed to introduce measures within 30 days to avoid a surge i

160、n shipments.GrainsOct-23Government market interventionApproved a support programme of EUR 132.2 million(USD 139 million)for Polish grain and oilseed farmers affected by imports from Ukraine.MaizeOct-23GMO policyAuthorized three genetically modified maize varieties and renewed the authorization for a

161、nother genetically modified maize variety as food and animal feed but not for cultivation in the European Union.HungaryGrainsSep-23Import banAnnounced the extension of an import ban on wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine after the European Commission decision to not extend the emba

162、rgo on Ukrainian grains.India GrainsMay-23Production subsidyAnnounced a subsidy of INR 38 000 crore(USD 461.74 million)for the Kharif(summer-sown)crops to fulfil its commitment to provide quality and subsidized phosphatic and potassic fertilizers to farmers.GrainsMay-23Government interventionApprove

163、d a new grain storage programme worth around INR 1 trillion(USD 12 billion),in an effort to boost warehouse capacity.The programme aims to increase Indias storage capacity by 70 million tonnes,bringing the total to 215 million tonnes within the next five years.Maize and sorghumJun-23Government procu

164、rementApproved increases in minimum support prices(MSP)for 2023/24 Kharif crops.Maize increased from INR 1 962 to INR 2 090 per quintal(from USD 237.8 to USD 253.3 per tonne)and sorghum from INR 2 970 to INR 3 180 per quintal(from USD 360 to USD 385.4 per tonne).WheatJun-23Stocks policyImposed an im

165、mediate stockholding limit on wheat,effective until March 2024,in an effort to bring down prices.The government has also decided to release 1.5 million tonnes of wheat to bulk consumers and traders from central batches in the first phase under the Open Market Sales Scheme.The stock limit applies to

166、traders,wholesalers,retailers,large chain retailers and processors.WheatJun-23Export quotaApproved exports of wheat and broken rice to selected countries following their request to allow grain shipments.In 2022,India banned the export of wheat and broken rice in an effort to lower local prices.India

167、n exporters will need to bid for the allocated quota.WheatAug-23Government market interventionAnnounced that it would sell 5 million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of rice with to the aim of curbing domestic price inflation.The commodities will be sold on open markets through electronic auct

168、ions,and sales will be phased in over time.The government also indicated that it would reduce the reserve price for the sales by INR 200 per quintal(USD 24 per tonne),resulting in an adjusted price of INR 2 900 per quintal(USD 350 per tonne).Major policy developments14FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTR

169、YCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONIndiaWheatSep-23Government interventionAnnounced that traders,wholesalers and large retailers would be allowed to maintain no more than 2 000 tonnes of wheat.Firms with stock levels that exceed the new limit have been granted thirty days to come into complia

170、nce.WheatOct-23Government procurementAnnounced an increase in the MSP of six Rabi(winter-sown)crops,including wheat and barley,for the 2024/25 marketing season.Wheat prices increased from INR 2 125 per quintal(USD 255.2 per tonne)to INR 2 275 per quintal(USD 273.2 per tonne)and barley prices from IN

171、R 1 735 per quintal(USD 208.4 per tonne)to INR 1 850 per quintal(USD 222.2 per tonne).JapanWheatSep-23Government procurementAnnounced that the selling price of imported wheat destined for millers would be set at JPY 68 240(USD 461)per tonne from 1 October,a decrease of 11.1 percent from the previous

172、 six months JPY 76 750(USD 519)per tonne.KazakhstanWheatSep-23Import banExtended a ban on wheat imports by road and rail,which will apply for a six-month period beginning on 11 October.The restrictions apply to third countries and to Eurasian Economic Union countries,but exempt imports by rail desti

173、ned for licensed elevators,grain processors and poultry companies.KenyaWheatJun-23Import dutyLowered the wheat import duty from 35 to 10 percent to help address high food prices in the country.MaizeJul-23Production subsidiesAnnounced a fertilizer subsidy programme that would lower the price from KES

174、 3 500(USD 24.7)to KES 2 500(USD 17.7)per bag.This intervention would significantly reduce the price of maize flour and other commodities and increase farmers income.The goal is the transformation of Kenyan agriculture from subsistence to a commercially and globally competitive industry.KyrgyzstanBa

175、rley,oats and ryeSep-23Export banAnnounced a temporary ban of six months on bran and grain fodder,barley and oats.The restriction does not apply to re-export,transit or humanitarian assistance.WheatSep-23Export banImposed a six-month ban on exports of wheat flour and food-quality wheat in order to e

176、nsure the countrys food security and stabilize market prices for food products.MexicoMaizeMay-23Government market interventionAnnounced the purchase of 1 million tonnes of white maize from small producers in Sinaloa state.The procurement price was set at MXN 6 965(USD 399.2)per tonne.WheatMay-23Impo

177、rt tariffAnnounced plans to remove wheat and wheat flour from the”basic basket”list,which is temporarily exempted from import tariffs.MaizeJun-23Import tariffImposed a 50 percent tariff on white maize imports until the end of the year in order to boost domestic production and prevent imports of gene

178、tically modified maize.This decision comes amid a trade dispute between Mexico and its North America trading partners,Canada and the United States,over the issue of genetically modified maize.MoroccoWheatJun-23Import subsidyAnnounced a programme to support wheat imports to ease the impact of a devas

179、tating drought by providing subsidies to importers every month from 1 July to 30 September.The subsidy will cover the difference between the cost of wheat and the reference import price of MAD 270 per quintal(USD 271.6 per tonne).The subsidy will facilitate imports of up to 2.5 million metric tonnes

180、 of milled wheat.WheatAug-23Import subsidyEffective from 1 August,the baseline for issuing subsidies is based on the most competitively-priced place of origin among Argentina,the European Union(France and Germany)and the United States.WheatSep-23Import subsidyAnnounced the provision of import subsid

181、ies for up to 2 million tonnes of milling wheat between 1 October and 31 December 2023.NigeriaMaize,sorghum and wheatJul-23Production supportProvided farm inputs,such as fertilizers,seeds and agrochemicals,through the National Agricultural Growth Scheme(NAGS)to increase the production of wheat,rice,

182、maize,sorghum and soybeans by small-scale farmers.The programme aims to assist more than 250 000 wheat growers to cultivate around 250 000 hectares.The aim is to boost food reserves and reduce dependence on imports.15FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023GrainsCOUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONPaki

183、stanWheatSep-23Import quotaApproved the import of 700 000 tonnes of wheat to the countrys private sector to overcome low domestic supplies.WheatOct-23Import quotaApproved the import of 1 million tonnes of milling wheat for the year 202324 to maintain the strategic reserves.PeruMaizeMay-23Import tari

184、ffIncreased the import tariff discounts applicable to maize products from USD 46 to USD 50 per tonne.MaizeJun-23Import tariffDecreased the import tariff discounts applicable to maize products from USD 50 to USD 25 per tonne.MaizeJul-23Import tariffIncreased the import tariff discounts applicable to

185、maize products from USD 25 to USD 30 per tonne.MaizeAug-23Import tariffDecreased the import tariff discounts applicable to maize products from USD 30 to USD 3 per tonne.MaizeSep-23Import tariffDecreased the import tariff discounts applicable to maize products from USD 3 to USD 0 per tonne.Poland Gra

186、insJun-23Government procurementPurchased approximately 60 percent of domestic grain surplus to help farmers affected by the large inflow of Ukrainian crops to Poland.MaizeOct-23Government market interventionAuthorized a domestic programme worth PLN 240 million(USD 59.2 million)to support maize farme

187、rs affected by imports from Ukraine.GrainsSep-23Import banAnnounced the decision to extend the import ban on wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflower seed from Ukraine after the European Commission decision to not extend the embargo on Ukrainian grains.RomaniaGrainsSep-23Trade policyOutlined a 30-day work

188、 plan with Ukraine on a grain export control strategy to safeguard the interests of Romanian farmers.The government indicated that it would establish a clear import-licensing procedure within this timeframe,with licenses granted exclusively to Romanian farmers and food processors for stock replenish

189、ment,and not to intermediaries.All imports would be subject to comprehensive food safety inspections.The initiative follows the decision of the European Commission on 15 September to lift temporary restrictions on imports of Ukrainian grain and other foodstuffs to five Eastern European nations,inclu

190、ding Romania.Maize and wheatOct-23Import policyAdopted an emergency decree regulating wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflowerseed imports from Ukraine.Russian Federation Barley,maize and wheatMay-23Production supportAllocated RUB 10 billion(USD 130 million)to 65 regions of the country to finance part of

191、the costs of farmers for the production and sale of wheat,rye,barley and maize.Barley,maize and WheatMay-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 644.4 to RUB 4 525.4(from USD 58.8 to USD 57.29)per tonne and on barley from RUB 1 559.1 to RUB 1 224.7(from USD 19.74 to USD 15.5)per ton

192、ne.Increased export duties on maize from RUB 2 565.8 to RUB 2 753.6(from USD 32.48 to USD 34.86)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 31 May.Barley,Maize and wheatJun-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 525.4 to RUB 2 856.3(from USD 56.01 to USD 35.35)per tonne,on ba

193、rley from RUB 1 559.1 to zero(from USD 15.16 to USD 0)per tonne and on maize from RUB 2 753.6 to RUB 1 214.4(from USD 34.08 to USD 15.03)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 7 June.Barley,maize and wheatJun-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 856.3 to RUB 2 629(USD

194、34 to USD 31.3)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 214.4 to RUB 1 189.9(USD 14.5 to USD 14.2).The duty on barley remained zero.These export duties came into effect on 15 June.Barley,maize and wheatJun-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 629 to RUB 2 612.9(USD 31.3 to USD 31.1)per

195、tonne and on maize from RUB 1 189.9 to RUB 1 168.1(USD 14.2 to USD 13.9).The duty on barley was set at zero.These export duties came into effect on 21 June.Major policy developments16FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONRussian Federation Barley,maize and wheatJun

196、-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 612.9 to RUB 2 473.3(USD 31.1 to USD 29.5)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 168.1 to RUB 937.8(from USD 13.9 to USD 10.4)per tonne.The duty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 28 June.Barley,maize and wheatJun-2

197、3Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 473.3 to RUB 2 609.6(from USD 27.4 to USD 28.9)per tonne.Decreased export duties on maize from RUB 937.8 to RUB 932.7(USD 10.4 to USD 10.3)per tonne.The duty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 5 July.Barley,maize

198、 and wheatJul-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 609.6 to RUB 2 989.6(from USD 28.6 to USD 32.77)per tonne and on maize from RUB 932.7 to RUB 1 237.4(USD 10.22 to USD 13.56)per tonne.The duty on barley remained zero.These export duties came into effect on 12 July.GrainsJul-23Tr

199、ade policyCeased its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,a mechanism brokered in July 2022 by the United Nations and Trkiye to facilitate the export of over 32 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain,oilseeds and other food stuffs through the Black Sea.The Russian Federation also withdrew secu

200、rity guarantees for navigation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.Barley,maize and wheatJul-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 989.6 to RUB 3 022.6(from USD 33.1 to USD 33.5)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 237.4 to RUB 1 923.2(from USD 13.7 to USD 21.3)per tonne.The du

201、ty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 19 July.WheatJul-23Export policyDeclared that some maritime areas of the Black Sea were temporarily unsafe for shipping and would be closed after the end of the grain deal.GrainsJul-23Export policyContinued to supply Africa with f

202、ood and fertilizer and replaced Ukrainian exports of grain to Africa despite sanctions.Barley,maize and wheatJul-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 3 022.6 to RUB 2 712.1(from USD 33.5 to USD 30.1)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 923.2 to RUB 1 598.6(USD 21.3 from to USD 17.7)pe

203、r tonne.The duty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 26 July.Barley,maize and wheatAug-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 712.1 to RUB 2 681.8(from USD 30.1 to USD 29.7)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 598.6 to RUB 1 596.7(from USD 17.7 to USD 17

204、.7)per tonne.The duty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 2 August.Barley,maize and wheatAug-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 681.8 to RUB 2 916.1(from USD 28 to USD 30.46)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 596.7 to RUB 1 758.7(from USD 16.68 to

205、USD 18.37)per tonne.The duty on barley remained at zero.These export duties came into effect on 9 August.Barley,maize and wheatAug-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 2 916.1 to RUB 3 712.8(from USD 29.38 to USD 37.41)per tonne and on maize from RUB 1 758.7 to RUB 2 175.1(from USD

206、 18.37 to USD 21.92)per tonne.The duty on barley increased from zero to RUB 439.6(USD 4.43)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 16 August.Barley,maize and wheatAug-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 3 712.8 to RUB 4 269.9(from USD 39.46 to USD 45.38)per tonne,on maiz

207、e from RUB 2 175.1 to RUB 2 495.3(from USD 23.11 to USD 26.52)per tonne and on barley from RUB 439.6 to RUB 860.3(from USD 4.67 to USD 9.14)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 23 August.Barley,maize and wheatAug-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 269.9 to RUB 3 72

208、9.2(from USD 44.9 to USD 39.21)per tonne,on maize from RUB 2 495.3 to RUB 1 931.5(from USD 26.24 to USD 20.31)per tonne and on barley from RUB 860.3 to RUB 431.8(from USD 9.05 to USD 4.54).These export duties came into effect on 30 August.Barley,maize and wheatSep-23Export dutyIncreased export dutie

209、s on wheat from RUB 3 729.2 to RUB 4 007(from USD 38.68 to USD 41.71)per tonne,on maize from RUB 1 931.5 to RUB 1 954.9(from USD 20.04 to USD 20.28)per tonne and on barley from RUB 431.8 to RUB 574.8(from USD 4.48 to USD 5.96)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 6 September.17FOOD OUTLO

210、OKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONRussian Federation Barley,maize and wheatSep-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 007 to RUB 4 493.7(from USD 41.71 to USD 46.78)per tonne,on maize from RUB 1 954.9 to RUB 2 465.2(from USD 20.35 to USD 25.66)per tonne

211、 and on barley from RUB 574.8 to RUB 931.7(from USD 5.98 to USD 9.7)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 13 September.Barley,maize and wheatSep-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 493.7 to RUB 4 528.7(from USD 46.42 to USD 46.78)per tonne and on maize from RUB 2 465

212、.2 to RUB 2 616.4(from USD 25.66 to USD 27.03)per tonne.Decreased export duty on barley from RUB 931.7 to RUB 789.5(from USD 9.62 to USD 8.16).These export duties came into effect on 20 September.Barley,maize and wheatSep-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on maize from RUB 2 616.4 to RUB 3 201.6(

213、from USD 27.25 to USD 33.35)per tonne and on barley from RUB 789.5 to RUB 791.2(from USD 8.22 to USD 8.24)per tonne.Decreased export duty on wheat from RUB 4 528.7 to RUB 4 527.5(from USD 46.78 to USD 47.11)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 27 September.Barley,maize and wheatSep-23Ex

214、port dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 527.5 to RUB 4 564.6(from USD 46.17 to USD 46.55)per tonne and on barley from RUB 791.2 to RUB 1 251.1(from USD 8.07 to USD 12.76)per tonne.Decreased export duty on maize from RUB 3 201.6 to RUB 2 853.8(from USD 32.65 to USD 29.1)per tonne.These e

215、xport duties came into effect on 4 October.Barley,maize and wheatOct-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 4 564.6 to RUB 5 224(from USD 45.5 to USD 52.07)per tonne and on maize from RUB 2 853.8 to RUB 3 120.8(from USD 28.45 to USD 31.11)per tonne.Decreased export duty on barley fro

216、m RUB 1 251.1 to RUB 1 166.1(from USD 12.47 to USD 11.62)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 11 October.Barley,maize and wheatOct-23Export dutyIncreased export duties on wheat from RUB 5 224 to RUB 5 734.7(from USD 53.47 to USD 58.7)per tonne and on maize from RUB 3 120.8 to RUB 3 271.

217、8(from USD 31.94 to USD 33.49)per tonne.Decreased export duty on barley from RUB 1 166.1 to RUB 772.6(from USD 11.94 to USD 7.91)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 18 October.Barley,maize and wheatOct-23Export dutyDecreased export duties on wheat from RUB 5 734.7 to RUB 5 297.7(from U

218、SD 59.9 to USD 55.33)per tonne,on barley from RUB 772.6 to RUB 0(from USD 8.07 to zero)per tonne and on maize from RUB 3 271.8 to RUB 2 218.1(from USD(USD 34.17 to USD 23.17)per tonne.These export duties came into effect on 25 October.Saudi ArabiaBarley and maizeJul-23Trade policySigned contracts wo

219、rth SAR 926 million(USD 246.7 million)to finance imports of several agricultural products,including barley and maize,to increase national food security.SlovakiaGrainsSep-23Import banExtended the ban introduced in April on wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflowerseed imports from Ukraine until the end of 2

220、023.The decision comes after the European Commissions decision to not extend its ban on imports.WheatSep-23Government market interventionIntroduced additional financial assistance aiming to compensate domestic wheat farmers affected by imports from Ukraine.The Agricultural Paying Agency will automat

221、ically disburse these payments until the end of 2023,utilizing data from the Integrated Administration and Control System to identify farmers who grew wheat on their land in 2022.If these farmers have applied for direct area payments in 2023,they will receive a minimum of EUR 38.42(USD 43)per hectar

222、e.GrainsSep-23Import policyAgreed to establish a licensing system for trade in grains,which would allow the import bans to be lifted once the system is established.Sri LankaMaizeAug-23Import tariffAnnounced the decrease of the maize import tariff from LKR 75 to LKR 25 per kg(USD 230 to USD 80 per to

223、nne).GrainsMajor policy developments18FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYCOMMODITYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONTunisiaGrainsJul-23Government market interventionSigned a loan worth USD 87.1 million from the African Development Bank Group.The funding will allow the government to implement the Cereal S

224、ector Inclusive and Sustainable Development Support Project.The latter aims to increase cereal productivity and upgrade storage capacity.GrainsAug-23Production supportAnnounced a development strategy to increase the cereal cultivation area to 1.2 million hectares by 2035 from the current average of

225、less than 900 000 hectares.The plan emphasizes growing wheat on 650 000 hectares,including 500 000 hectares for durum wheat and 100 000 hectares for soft wheat.Barley cultivation is set to expand from 341 000 to 500 000 hectares,and triticale will cover 50 000 hectares.The strategy aims to ensure th

226、e sustainable development of cereal production,finance stakeholders,enhance value chains and improve the economic and social sector environments.TrkiyeBarley and wheatJun-23Government procurementAnnounced the 2023 purchase prices and policies for grains,including wheat and barley.The purchase price

227、was set at TRY 8 250(USD 349.9)per tonne for bread wheat and at TRY 7 000(USD 296.9)per tonne for barley.MaizeAug-23Government procurementSet the 2023 purchase price for maize at TRY 6 000(USD 220.8)per tonne,down from TRY 5 700(USD 314.6)per tonne in the previous year.Maize and wheatSep-23Import po

228、licyIntroduced the mandatory registration of wheat durum and maize export volumes for shipment during October,with applications accepted between 25 and 29 September.UkraineGrainsMay-23Export policyCancelled export licensing requirements for a number of agricultural products,including millet,oats and

229、 rye.GrainsJul-23Government market interventionSigned a memorandum of agreement with Lagos Free Zone to build a grain terminal at Lekki port,Nigeria following the destruction of its food export terminal.The grain terminal will assist the Ukrainian agrarian sector to continue their supply to Nigeria

230、and the rest of the African continent.Viet NamWheatSep-23Import policyIssued a regulation easing phytosanitary restrictions on field thistle seeds that has been in force since 1 November 2018.The measure was set to ease Vietnamese imports of wheat from the Northern Hemisphere.ZimbabweMaize and wheat

231、May-23Import policyAnnounced a six-month suspension of import licenses,import duties and import taxes on several basic commodities,including maize meal and wheat flour.*The full collection starting in January 2011 is available at:https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/commodity-policy-archive/en/?grou

232、pANDcommodity=grains19FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONArgentinaJul-23Export promotionDecided that the Central Bank would establish a mechanism allowing exporters of commodities covered by the 2023 round of the Export Increase Programme(Programa de Incremento Exportado

233、r),including husked,semi/wholly milled and broken rice,to settle transactions with a preferential exchange rate of ARS 340 to 1 USD until 31 August 2023.Sep-23 Export taxes Removed the 35 percent export taxes applied on husked and semi/wholly milled rice(parboiled,polished/glazed,in packages of 2 kg

234、 or less and otherwise).In the case of broken rice,the export taxes were lowered from 4.55 percent to 2 percent,while for paddy(not for sowing),export taxes were cut from 56 percent to 34 percent,depending on whether the rice is parboiled or otherwise and sold in packages of 2 kg or less.The decisio

235、n took effect on 7 September 2023.BangladeshMay-23Production supportAnnounced that it would allocate BDT 332 million(USD 3.0 million)to support the cultivation of paddy during the 2023/24 Aman cycle.The funds would go to provide 490000 farmers with five kg of seeds and 20 kg of fertilizers at no cos

236、t.May-23Export ban,export restrictionsAccording to press reports,decided that it would consider permitting exports of aromatic rice(which had been banned since July 2022)on a case-by-case basis.Oct-23Government procurement,purchasing pricesDecided to purchase 400 000 tonnes of parboiled rice,200 000

237、 tonnes of paddy and 100000 tonnes of white rice from the 2023/24 Aman harvest,starting in November.The procurement drive would offer BDT 30,43 and 44(USD 269,386,and 395 per tonne)per kg of paddy,white and parboiled rice,respectively.Burkina FasoSep-23Production support,import quotaLaunched the Off

238、ensive Agropastorale et Halieutique 2023-2025,with the aim of achieving food sovereignty by 2025 by bolstering the production of eight strategic products,including rice.The programme would entail the investment of XOF 592 billion(USD 947.2 million)from the public and private sectors.In the case of r

239、ice,it would aim to achieve full national self-sufficiency by boosting output to 1 million tonnes of paddy.To meet this objective,the programme will promote the cultivation of high yielding varieties and develop nearly 8 000 hectares,primarily in Samendni,of new land for irrigated rice cultivation.A

240、nother 44 000 hectares would also come under lowland cultivation across the various regions.Other reforms envisioned by the scheme include the establishment of a Fonds de Dveloppement Agropastoral(FDAP)to finance activities,expansion of agropastoral insurance to the targeted products,facilitated par

241、ticipation of agricultural cooperatives in public food purchases through contract farming arrangements and the introduction of a quota system for rice importers requiring them to purchase local produce.China(mainland)Sep-23Import quotaAnnounced that it would leave the tariff-rate import quota for ri

242、ce unchanged at 5.32 million tonnes in 2024.Mid-May-23 to Aug-23Stock releaseSold 1.52 million tonnes of paddy from state reserves,out of a total of 12.93 million tonnes offered through 16 auctions held between 16 May and 29 August 2023.RICE:MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS MID-MAY 2023 TO MID-OCTOBER 2023

243、*RiceMajor policy developments20FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONColombiaJul-23Support prices,warehouse receipts programAllocated COP 25 billion(USD 6.0 million)to implement the storage incentive programme for 2023 second-semester crops until 31 December 2023,or until

244、allotted funds are exhausted.Under the scheme,COP 39 900(USD 9.6)would be granted to cover the monthly cost of storing a tonne of dry paddy,or its husked or milled equivalent,for a maximum of three months and on condition that these supplies are purchased at reference prices of COP 1 545 6001 688 00

245、0(USD 371-405)per tonne.Up to 170 000 tonnes of dry paddy(or its equivalent)and paddy seeds are eligible to be covered by the scheme.Cte dIvoireSep-23Price controlsAdjusted the retail price caps set in November 2022,setting them at XOF 460630(USD 0.741.01)per kg,depending on the quality and origin o

246、f the product,for Abidjan and locales within a 30-kilometre radius.Sep-23Export banBanned exports of locally-produced rice and other commodities from 18 September until 31 December 2023.EcuadorJul-23Import tariff,import quotaDecided to allow 63 246 tonnes of paddy(not for sowing)and semi/wholly mill

247、ed rice to be imported,free of duty and not subject to the Price Band system,until 31 December 2023,effective from 17 July 2023.European UnionSep-23Import tariffRaised tariffs on non-basmati husked rice imported outside existing trade agreements from EUR 30(USD 31.5)to EUR 42.5(USD 44.6)per tonne,ef

248、fective from 6 September 2023.GambiaJun-23Food subsidiesAnnounced that,with the aim of making rice available at affordable prices,the National Food Security Processing and Marketing Corporation,in collaboration with the Ecotra Group Ltd,had imported 5 000 tonnes of 100%broken raw white rice(SARRO ri

249、ce).These supplies would be sold at GMD 14901600 for a 50 kg bag(USD 0.45 to USD 0.48 per kg),depending on the distribution market.GhanaAug-23Production support,finance and credit facilities,government procurementLaunched Phase II of the Planting for Food and Jobs campaign,which is to be implemented

250、 for five years with the aim of transforming agriculture by supporting production of 11 commodities,including rice.Under the second phase of the scheme,the Government would no longer provide seeds and fertilizers at subsidized prices to smallholder farmers and settle the associated payments with inp

251、ut distributors.Instead,it would establish an input credit system involving the private sector.It would also provide support services,logistical and infrastructural channels to help raise productivity levels and reduce post-harvest losses.Increased focus would be laid on commercial farming,including

252、 through the establishment of Agriculture Zones.To help producers market their produce,the programme would include in-kind payment arrangements for produce harvested by registered farmers,purchases by the National Food Buffer Stock Company(NAFCO)to service public distribution needs,and listing of pr

253、oducts for purchase by the Ghana Commodities Exchange.Up to 1.2 million farmers are expected to enroll in the programme during its first year of implementation,with 210 000 farm-related jobs expected to be created annually by the scheme in its remaining four years of implementation.GuineaJul-23Expor

254、t banBanned exports of rice and other agricultural products for a period of six months,starting on 17 July 2023.Guinea-BissauAug-23Price controlsLowered the price of a 50 kg bag of 100%broken rice from XOF 22 500(USD 0.72 per kg)to XOF 17 500(USD 0.56 per kg).21FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYDATEPO

255、LICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONIndiaMay-23Export restrictions,export quotaAmended its export policy to specify that,while shipments of fully broken rice remained prohibited,broken rice exports could be permitted by the Government of India to other countries to meet their food security needs,based upon re

256、quest by their governments.May-23Export requirementsDecided that Certificates of Inspection by the Export Inspection Council/Export Inspection Agency would not be mandatory for exports of basmati and non-basmati rice to European countries other than members of the European Union,Iceland,Liechtenstei

257、n,Norway,Switzerland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.The measure took immediate effect and will be valid for six months.Jun-23Minimum support pricesRaised minimum support prices(MSPs)for paddy for the 2023/24 season.In the case of common paddy,the MSP was raised 7 percen

258、t above the 2022/23 level to INR 21 830(USD 262)per tonne,while for Grade A paddy,the increase was 6.9 percent to INR 22 030(USD 264)per tonne.Jun-23Export restrictions,export quotaEstablished a procedure to allocate export quotas for an undisclosed quantity of broken rice to be shipped to Gambia,In

259、donesia and Senegal as an exception to the export ban on brokens instituted in September 2022.The move followed the receipt of import requests from the governments of the three importing countries.Jun-23Stock releaseAnnounced that the Food Corporation of India would conduct e-auctions of rice and wh

260、eat to curb increases in domestic prices.In the case of rice,the auctions would be conducted under the Open Market Sale Scheme(Domestic)as of 5 July 2023,with a base price of INR 31 000(USD 372)per tonne.Jul-23Export restrictionsBanned exports of semi/wholly milled non-basmati white(non-parboiled)ri

261、ce(ITC HS code 1006 30 90).The measure became effective on 20 July 2023,but would not apply for shipments that,prior to the prohibition,were already at the loading stage or had filed shipping bills,had vessels already berthed/arrived/anchored or where their consignment had already been handed to cus

262、toms.In addition,it stipulated that exports of non-basmati white rice would be allowed upon permission granted by the Indian Government for countries to meet their food security needs,upon requests from governments.Jul-23Export restrictions,export quotaAnnounced that it would open applications to ex

263、port 100 000 tonnes of broken rice to Mali and 48 804 tonnes of broken rice to Bhutan during the 2023/24 fiscal year.The shipments would be exempted from the export ban on brokens instituted in September 2022.The announcement followed the receipt of import requests from the Governments of Mali and B

264、hutan.Aug-23Stock releaseAnnounced that the Food Corporation of India would offload 2.5 million tonnes of rice through the Open Market Sale Scheme(Domestic)scheme and that the base price of auctions under the scheme would be lowered by 6.5 percent to INR 29 000(USD 348)per tonne.Aug-23Export restric

265、tions,export taxesImposed a 20 percent export duty on non-basmati parboiled rice(ITC HS code 1006 30 10),effective from 25 August to 15 October 2023.Aug-23Export restrictionsAnnounced that it had instructed the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority to register basmati

266、 exports with a Free on Board(FOB)value of USD 1 200 per tonne or above only.Basmati shipments valued below this level were to be subject to abeyance and potentially evaluated by a committee to ascertain that they did not constitute non-basmati white rice shipments circumventing the July export ban

267、on this type of rice by being misclassified as basmati.According to the announcement,the committee would report its findings within a month to inform decisions regarding lower-priced basmati exports.RiceMajor policy developments22FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONIndiaA

268、ug-23Export restrictions,export quotaPermitted exports of 79 000 tonnes of non-basmati white rice to Bhutan,14 000 tonnes of non-basmati white rice to Mauritius and 50 000 tonnes of non-basmati white rice to Singapore.The shipments would be exempted from the export ban on non-basmati white rice put

269、in place in July 2023 and would be conducted through the National Cooperative Exports Limited(NCEL).Sep-23Export restrictions,export quotaPermitted exports of 75 000 tonnes of non-basmati white rice to the United Arab Emirate through the National Cooperative Exports Limited(NCEL),as an exception to

270、the export ban on non-basmati white rice put into place in July 2023.Oct-23Export restrictions,export taxesDecided that the 20 percent export duty on non-basmati parboiled rice(ITC HS code 1006 30 10)would remain in place until 31 March 2024,instead of 15 October 2023 as indicated in August 2023.Oct

271、-23Export restrictionsIndicated that the USD 1 200 per tonne floor price used by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority to register basmati shipments since late August 2023 was under active consideration by the government and that the arrangement would remain in pl

272、ace until a decision was taken by the government.Oct-23Export restrictionsApproved a total of 1.03 million tonnes of non-basmati white rice exports to seven countries through the National Cooperative Exports Limited(NCEL),as an exception to the export ban on this type of rice put in place in July 20

273、23.The volumes consist of 95 000 tonnes destined to Nepal,190 000 tonnes to Cameroon,142 000 tonnes to Cote dIvoire,142 000 tonnes to Guinea,170 000 tonnes to Malaysia,295 000 tonnes to the Philippines and 800 tonnes to Seychelles.IndonesiaJun-23Import agreementReportedly reached a memorandum of und

274、erstanding with India giving Indonesia the option to import up to 1 million tonnes of rice.Imports under the agreement would be on top of the 2.0 million tonne import volume assigned to Bulog for 2023.Jul-23 Food subsidies Decided that it would distribute 10 kg of rice per month to 21.353 million ho

275、useholds for another three months,under a scheme that saw similar rations distributed to these households between March and June 2023.This second round of distributions were originally slated for October to December 2023,but were brought forward to September to November 2023.Aug-23Import agreementAg

276、reed to purchase 125 000 tonnes of rice from Cambodia and to revise the memorandum of understanding on rice trade with Cambodia,giving Indonesia the option to purchase 250 000 tonnes of Cambodian rice per year for four years.Oct-23Import quotaIssued statements indicating that it would import an addi

277、tional 1.5 million tonnes of rice,on top of the 2.0 million tonne import volume assigned to Bulog for 2023.KenyaJun-23Import tariffRenewed the exemption of the Common External Tariff(CET)of the East African Community on rice imports for an additional year.As such,imports of paddy,husked,semi/wholly

278、milled and broken rice would continue to accrue a 35 percent import tariff(or USD 200 per tonne,whichever is higher),rather than the 75 percent tariff(or USD 345 per tonne)that they would accrue under the CET.KyrgyzstanSep-23Export banBanned exports of rice and other agricultural products for a peri

279、od of six months,starting from 4 September 2023.23FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023RiceCOUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONMalaysiaAug-23Production supportAnnounced that it would raise assistance to rice producers under the Paddy Price Subsidy Scheme from MYR 360(USD 76)to MYR 500(USD 106)per tonne,effec

280、tive 9 August 2023.Sep-23Market managementAnnounced that,among steps it had taken to stabilize the supply of rice,it had requested that processors and wholesalers increase the volumes of rice they market by 20 percent under a Local White Rice Special Programme.For the purpose,Bernas would increase i

281、ts releases of rice to wholesalers,with the scheme set to run in two phases,starting on 8 September and 15 September 2023.Oct-23Food subsidiesAnnounced that it would destine MYR 400 million(USD 85 million)to provide an MYR 950(USD 201)outlay for a tonne of imported white rice in Sabah and Sarawak fr

282、om 5 October 2023.The measure aims to have 10 kg of imported rice sold at MYR 31(USD 0.7 per kg)at the retail level in the two states.The Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority would also take steps to increase distribution of local white rice in rural areas,while government rice purchases would b

283、e confined to imported supplies.Oct-23Budgetary allocations,production support,support prices,crop insuranceAs part of its 2024 budgetary allocations,announced that,in addition to raising assistance to paddy farmers under the Paddy Price Subsidy Scheme to MYR 500(USD 106)per tonne,it would also incr

284、ease the paddy producer price floor by MYR 100(USD 21)to MYR 1 300(USD 275)per tonne.It was additionally looking to intensify production by piloting the cultivation of five cycles every two years in granary areas,including Perak,Kedah and Perlis.It would also increase incentives to support cultivati

285、on in hill paddies by 25 percent to MYR 50 million(USD 11 million)to have hill paddies extend over 43 000 hectares.Furthermore,it would set aside MYR 50 million(USD 11 million)as a start-up fund for the Skim Takaful Tanaman Padi,under which 240 000 paddy farmers could be compensated for losses incur

286、red as a result of natural disasters,among other measures.MyanmarSep-23Export requirements,export restrictionsIndicated that it would not suspend rice exports but that,as of 1 September 2023,a new export licensing system would be put in place requiring pre-shipment screening.The move followed statem

287、ents by industry representatives in late August indicating that a temporary ban on rice exports was being contemplated.NepalJul-23Minimum support pricesSet minimum support prices(MSPs)for the 2023/24 season.In the case of common paddy,the MSP was set at NPR 33 620(USD 249)per tonne,up 7.5 percent fr

288、om levels set for 2022/23.On the other hand,the MSP for Mota Dhan paddy was set 7.8 percent above the 2022/23 level at NPR 31 980(USD 237)per tonne.NigeriaJul-23Production support,stock release,consumer pricesDeclared a state of emergency on food security,indicating that all matters pertaining to ba

289、sic food and water availability would fall within the scope of the National Security Council.It also announced a series of measures that it intended to take to allay the impacts of inflationary pressure and to ensure supply of food at accessible prices.Among these,it would take immediate steps to re

290、lease fertilizers and grains to farmers and households and to channel part of the savings generated from the May 2023 removal of subsidies on fuel into the agricultural sector.While it planned to make 500 000 additional hectares of arable land available for farming and looked to 11 river basins for

291、year-round production of staples under irrigation,it would also take steps to shore up security for farms and farmers,to improve mechanization,land clearing,irrigation infrastructure and funding the agricultural value chain,particularly for agricultural inputs.It would also establish a National Comm

292、odity Board to analyse food prices and maintain strategic food reserves for price stabilization purposes.Additionally,it would explore alternative means of transportation,including rail and water transport,to reduce freight costs,and would facilitate trade by removing existing bottlenecks and stimul

293、ating export capacity.Major policy developments24FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONNigeriaJul-23Production supportAnnounced the implementation of the National Agricultural Growth Scheme on Agro-Pocket(NAGS-AP)in the states of Niger,Kebbi,Jigawa,Kano,and Sokoto.The progr

294、amme,launched in the context of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda Support Programme Phase One(ATASP-1)would replace the Growth Enhancement Support(GES)initiative,and would aim to increase the production of rice,maize,sorghum and soybean by providing inputs to small-scale farmers during the wet

295、and dry seasons.The programme will target approximately 60 000 farmers in twenty-six Local Government Areas across the five states,who will receive fertilizers,seeds,and agrochemicals through an ICT-based delivery platform.Aug-23Food subsidies,stock releaseApproved the disbursement of NGA 5 billion(

296、USD 6.5 million)for each state and the Federal Capital Territory to counter hikes in food prices and increases in the cost of petroleum following the removal of the long-standing oil subsidy in May 2023.The measure would reportedly allow each state to procure 100 000 bags of rice,40 000 bags of maiz

297、e,and fertilizers for public distribution.Fifty-two percent of the funds would be released to states in the form of a grant,with the balance to be paid back to the federal government within 20 months.It also announced the release of five trucks of rice to each federal state.Oct-23Import restrictions

298、Lifted restrictions that prohibited importers of 43 commodities,including rice,from purchasing foreign exchange on the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.In the case of rice and 40 other items,these restrictions had been in place since June 2015,with the aim of generating local employment and reducing

299、 demand for foreign exchange for items that could be locally produced.PanamaJun-23Import quotaApproved an import quota of 68 040 tonnes of paddy,liable to a 3 percent import tariff and to be brought into the country by 31 August 2023.Out of that volume,18 144 tonnes would be allocated to the Institu

300、to de Mercadeo Agropecuario.PhilippinesAug-23Import agreementAnnounced that it had entered into talks with India and Viet Nam to facilitate imports of 300 000500 000 tonnes of rice in 2023.Aug-23Price controlsSet a price ceiling of PHP 41(USD 0.7)per kg for regular milled rice and of PHP 45(USD 0.8)

301、per kg for well-milled rice,to be applicable until otherwise decided by the president.In addition,it instructed the Department of Trade and Industry and the Department of Agriculture to ensure the strict implementation of price caps,to monitor and investigate abnormal price movements and to aid affe

302、cted retailers.In order to thwart hoarding and illegal rice importation and to ensure consumer protection and welfare,the Bureau of Customs was also directed to intensify inspections and raids of warehouses and to facilitate confiscation,seizure or forfeiture of smuggled rice,while the Philippines C

303、ompetition Commission,in coordination with other institutions,was to take measures against cartels and entities abusing a dominant position in the market.The measure became effective on 5 September 2023.Sep-23Price controls,marketing assistanceAnnounced that it would provide a one-time financial out

304、lay of up to PHP 15 000(USD 264)to small rice retailers incurring losses as a result of the price caps approved for regular and well-milled rice in late August 2023.Sep-23Government procurement,purchasing pricesRaised the effective buying price of the National Food Authority by 21 percent for clean

305、dry paddy to PHP 23 000(USD 404)per tonne and by 19 percent to PHP 19 000(USD 334)per tonne for wet paddy.This level would include a PHP 3 0004 000(USD 53-70)per tonne Buffer Stock Incentive(BSI)that could be adjusted and approved per province on a weekly basis,based on prevailing ex-farm paddy pric

306、es.Oct-23Price controlsLifted the price ceilings put in place on regular and well-milled rice in late August 2023.Republic of KoreaMay-23Food aidAnnounced that it would double its food aid deliveries of rice through the World Food Programme to 100 000 tonnes per year as of 2024.May-23Stock releaseAn

307、nounced that it would release 140 000 tonnes of rice from government reserves for feed and alcohol production by the end of 2023.25FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023RiceCOUNTRYDATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONRepublic of KoreaAug-23Government procurementAnnounced that it would purchase 400 000 tonnes of rice

308、from the 2023 harvest at market prices between 30 August and 31 December 2023.Of that volume,10 000 tonnes of rice would serve as the countrys contribution to the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve(APTERR).Russian FederationJul-23Export banReintroduced the ban on exports of paddy,husked,semi/wh

309、olly milled rice,broken rice,groats and rice meal,except for those destined to member states of the Eurasian Economic Union,until 31 December 2023.RwandaJun-23Import tariffRenewed the exemption of the Common External Tariff(CET)of the East African Community on imports of semi/wholly milled rice.Acco

310、rdingly,semi/wholly milled rice will continue to attract an import duty of 45 percent(or USD 345 per tonne,whichever is higher)for an additional year rather than the 75 percent import tariff(or USD 345 per metric tonne)that it accrues under the CET.ThailandSep-23Production support,finance and credit

311、 facilitiesApproved a three-year debt moratorium for farmers,at an estimated cost of THB 33 billion(USD 0.9 billion).Under the initiative,2.7 million farmers with outstanding loans of up to THB 300 000(USD 8 268)would have principal and interest payments suspended,with the first phase of the program

312、me set to run from 1 October 2023 to 30 September 2024.United Arab EmiratesJul-23Export banBanned exports and re-exports of paddy,husked,semi/wholly milled and broken rice originating in India and brought into the country,including through free zones,after 20 July 2023.The restriction will be valid

313、for four months,starting from 28 July 2023,and would be automatically extended unless otherwise decided.Companies wishing to export or re-export rice not originating in India would also have to request an export permit from the Ministry of Economy,which would be issued with a 30-day validity.United

314、States of AmericaSep-23Production supportAnnounced that producers would receive a second payment under the Rice Production Programme,which was approved in December 2022 to aid rice farmers who faced high production costs during the 2022/23 season.The move would bring payments to producers to a total

315、 of USD 0.01280.0228 per pound(USD 0.0280.503 per kg).Viet NamMay-23Export strategyApproved a rice export market development strategy to 2030.The document lays out a target to reduce rice exports to 4.0 million tonnes by 2030.Under the strategy,the structure of rice shipments would be adjusted such

316、that by 20262030 deliveries of low and middle grade Indica rice would account for no more than 10 percent of overall exports,higher quality Indica rice for 15 percent,glutinous rice for 20 percent,fragrant,Japonica and other specialty rice,combined,for 45 percent,and other types for 10 percent.It wo

317、uld also aim to have the proportion of branded exports reach 40 percent by 20262030.In addition,by 2030,the country would seek to have the share of its shipments destined for Asia at 55 percent,for Africa at 23 percent,for the Middle East and Europe at 5 percent each,for the Americas at 8 percent an

318、d for Oceania at 4 percent.*The full collection starting in January 2011 is available at:https:/www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=riceMajor policy developments26FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023COUNTRYPRODUCT DATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONArgentinaSoybeanSep-23Ex

319、port policyIntroduced a new round of the“soy dollar”programme,effective 4 September 2023,allowing exporters to buy 25%of soybeans using their export revenues at a free exchange rate,while the remaining 75%will be traded at the official exchange rate of ARS 350 per USD.One month after implementation,

320、the programme was extended until 25 October 2023.Sunflower seed,sunflower oil and sunflower mealOct-23Export policyExtended the fourth round of the“soy dollar”programme to include sunflower seed,sunflower oil and sunflower meal.The programme for these products will be valid until 20 October 2023.Bra

321、zilSoybeanSep-23Production regulationAuthorized 48 producers to sow soybeans in Mato Grosso 15 days earlier than the usual planting period,starting on 15 September 2023.The sowing period is established by the government annually to allow the proper development of the crop in each state.BulgariaSunfl

322、ower seedOct-23Import policyIntroduced an import ban on sunflower seed from Ukraine until the end of November 2023,when a new licensing system,previously agreed between Ukraine and the European Union,would become effective.China(mainland)SoybeanMay-23Food standardPublished the updated national stand

323、ard for soybeans,which will take effect on 1 December 2023.The revised standard will replace the current version,which has been in effect since 1 September 2009.SoybeanJun-23 to Oct-23Stock releaseSold 1.12 million tonnes of imported soybeans from state reserves,out of 4.21 million tonnes offered in

324、 13 auctions between 20 June and 1 September 2023.SoybeanOct-23GMO policyPreliminarily approved 14 new genetically modified(GM)soybean seed varieties for planting.RapeseedOct-23GMO policyApproved a GM rapeseed for import,effective from 28 September 2023 to 27 September 2028.OilseedsOct-23Bilateral t

325、rade initiativeSigned an agreement with the Russian Federation,which will supply 70 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds to China(mainland)over the next 12 years.European UnionRapeseed,sunflower seedMay-23Import policyBanned imports of key agricultural products from Ukraine,including wheat,maize,ra

326、peseed and sunflower seed to five frontline European Union(EU)members Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia effective from 2 May to 5 June 2023.The products remained free to circulate in other EU countries.Agricultural productsMay-23Import policyThe European Parliament approved the European C

327、ommissions proposal to renew the Autonomous Trading Measures(ATM),which suspended import duties,anti-dumping duties and quotas on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for another year.Agricultural productsJun-23Market supportApproved a support package worth EUR 100 million(USD 108.4 million

328、)for farmers in Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia affected by the war in Ukraine.The support aims to restore stability to the local agricultural market and to demonstrate a collective commitment to find solutions and support the agricultural sector in the region.Rapeseed,sunflower seedJun

329、-23Import policyExtended import bans on four Ukrainian agricultural products until 15 September 2023.The ban applied to wheat,maize,rapeseed and sunflower seed coming into five EU countries that border Ukraine:Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia.BiodieselAug-23Import policyLaunched an inves

330、tigation into allegations of Indonesian biodiesel imports avoiding the blocs countervailing duties by going via China(mainland)and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Rapeseed,sunflower seed Sep-23Import policyConfirmed the lapse of the temporary import ban on wheat,maize,rapese

331、ed and sunflower seed from Ukraine to Bulgaria,Hungary,Poland,Romania and Slovakia,starting from 16 September 2023.OILCRROPS:MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS MID-MAY 2023 TO MID-OCTOBER 2023*27FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2023OilcropsCOUNTRYPRODUCT DATEPOLICY INSTRUMENTDESCRIPTIONEuropean UnionAgricultural product

332、sSep-23Market supportAllowed Ukraine to independently request aid for infrastructure development under the Connecting Europe Facility(CEF)programme of the European Union(EU)in a bid to help establish and improve trade routes for the transit of Ukrainian products through the EU.Previously,Ukraine cou

333、ld only submit projects for selection in cooperation with EU countries.OilseedsOct-23Sector development measuresUnder the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework of the European Union,approved an approximately EUR 132.3 million(USD 139.1 million)Polish scheme to support the cereal and oilseed production sectors in the context of the war in Ukraine.The scheme will be open to cereal and oilseed pr

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