1、MidMid-Year Update Webinar:Year Update Webinar:US TransportationUS TransportationScott Monroe,CFAJune 2023Economic UpdateToll RoadsAirportsSeaportsWhat to WatchQ&AA2Economic UpdateKey Factors slowing the economyRising interest ratesFalling investment,consumer spendingRecession pushed back to 4Q23Fal

2、ling yet high inflationBank 3Transportation UpdateSector Outlooks by Region and Sector65%52%40%35%30%0%20%40%60%80%NAEMEALATAMAPACGLOBALPercentage of Sector Outlooks Deteriorating By R4Toll Roads UpdateToll road traffic and VMT nearly fully recovered to 2019 levelsTraffic in slow-growth phase Truck

3、and car performance convergingoTransition from goods to service spendingoEconomic cyclicalityWFHoImpact on CBDs,commutersRevenues higher than 5Toll Roads UpdateAverages obscure significant statewide variancesSunbelt States Well-PositionedWestern Coastal States,Northeast StrugglingVMT LosersVMT Winne

4、rsCalifornia IllinoisNew York OregonWashingtonArizonaFloridaIdahoTexasUtahVMT Growth(2019-2023)1-6.4%-2.0%-7.8%-5.7%-4.3%11.6%7.8%7.0%6.5%4.8%Labor Force Growth(2019-2023)2-1.1%0.0%0.5%2.6%4.8%4.2%5.6%10.6%6.3%11.9%Population Growth(2020-2022)3-1.3%-1.8%-2.6%0.1%1.0%2.9%3.3%5.4%3.0%3.3%Source:VMT Gr

5、owth:Bureau of Transportation Statistics;Civilian Labor Force Growth:Bureau of Labor Statistics;Population Growth:Census Bureau.1.Growth based on trailing twelve months ended 2/1/23 and 2/1/192.Civilian labor force growth from 3/1/19 to 3/1/233.Population growth based on population changes from 4/1/

6、20 to 7/1/6Toll Roads U7Airports UpdateTSA throughput at roughly 100%in 23Capacity enhancementsATC staffingIntl,business trafficLeisure/Summer travelOpex:fuel,8Airports U9Seaports UpdateTEUs down 22%yoy(1Q23)oWest Coast down 29%oEast/Gulf Coast down 14%Western labor issuesRotation to service spendin