发现新增量2023新兴市场出海生态洞察报告发布单位:亿邦智库(亿邦动力)2023.9亿邦智库亿邦智库跨境电商系列报告前言不确定环境下,全球市场分化依旧明显,外贸持续承压,挖掘新增量开拓新市场已成为出海企业共识。RCEP与“一带一路”政策红利不断释放,东南亚、拉美、中东及非洲等地区逐渐成为中企出海新机遇和突破口。我国与新兴市场产业互补性优势凸显,进一步激发贸易业态模式创新活力,推动货物贸易和服务贸易双轮驱动,成为外贸增长新亮点。本报告是亿邦智库2023全球化新品牌洞察报告系列报告的子报告,聚焦新兴市场出海现状与挑战,探讨及呈现可行落地的本土化策略,助力出海企业在策略选择、用户洞察、本土经营及金融服务等方面提供参考与指引。CNTENTS04 金融科技赋能贸易出海03 货贸服贸出海双轮驱动02 新兴市场彰显韧性活力01 三大趋势引领行业方向三大趋势引领行业方向/01本土经营:扎根新市场,价值输出打开信任空间新兴市场各国的经济环境、政策法律、宗教文化、语言习俗各不相同,对本土化经营提出更高要求。出海商家需要扎根当地市场,在产品开发、品牌建设、营销推广、物流仓储、供应链、经营管理等全套运作体系方面强化本土化运营的能力,减小对目标市场的认知偏差,通过持续地价值输出不断构建信任。更深的市场洞察更爆的适配产品更准的营销策略更厚的销售渠道更近的本土服务更好的用户体验产品本土化深刻理解当地风俗文化、购买习惯、消费偏好等,推出适合当地用户的本土化产品销售本土化需要针对不同市场及特色人群,拓宽多元化销售渠道,构建品牌认知营销本土化选择合适及优质的海外社交媒体及广告媒体等,洞察用户话题及流行趋势,开展本土化营销服务本土化组建本土化运营团队,招揽当地人才,适度下沉构建信任社交圈层,提升用户体验-5-得益于数字技术广泛运用于生产、物流、营销、支付等环节,出海企业运营效率得以大幅提升。与此同时,第三方服务机构凭借自身资源及科技优势持续创新丰富产品,紧抓新兴市场红利不断拓宽业务边界,推动货贸服贸协同发展,为出海企业提供数智化工具及一站式解决方案,快速响应市场新需求。全链路全场景数智化驱动数据分析支持精准决策数字技术提升运营效率多样化方案满足个性需求云计算数智驱动:全链路全场景加速渗透,快速响应市场新需求B2B外贸不间断高效服务提升体验产品研发精准营销用户运营金融支付物流履约本地服务大数据物联网5GIoTAI游戏航旅留学线上货物贸易线上服务贸易物流-6-B2C跨境电商独立站合规发展:构筑创新发展基石,实现可持续性发展合规发展知识产权商标专利包装产品说明产品品质资质许可产地证明ESG知识产权合规生产合规税务VAT法律法规贸易规则平台规则市场合规本土牌照数据安全隐私保护反欺诈金融合规伴随行业高质量发展,各国监管趋严,合规化经营成为有效创新及可持续发展的基石。出海过程中企业应深入了解不同国家的政策、法规、文化、风险等,从产品、技术、支付、知识产权等方面加强合规管理,打造长期竞争力。合规化熟悉本土法律经营有效保证多元化满足多市场多渠道业务合规需求透明化人工智能提升数据分析及风控能力,实现全流程安全可控-7-新兴市场彰显韧性活力/0230.2岁东南亚人口平均年龄50% 35岁以下人口占比2022年东南亚总人口6.8亿,主要六国人口达6亿,35岁以下人口占比超50%,网民用户规模4.6亿,互联网渗透率超75%。预计到2025年,东南亚数字经济规模将从2022年的近2000亿美元增长至3300亿美元,复合增长率达20%。数字经济包括电商、旅游、食品和运输及线上付费媒体行业,其中,电商为主要推动力,2025年市场规模达2110亿美元,年复合增长率17%,是出海企业关注的重点赛道。11213121181744192239222436202120222025E电商旅游食品和交通线上付费媒体东南亚市场:2025年数字经济达3300亿美元,电商年复合增长率达17%人口多:东南亚主要国家人口分布(百万人)新加坡5.9越南98.6泰国70.1马来西亚33.0菲律宾111.8印尼277.7资料来源:e-Conomy SEA 2022 report,eMarketer,Worldometers,We are social网民多:2022东南亚网民用户规模(百万人)爱社交:2022东南亚社交媒体渗透率高人口红利68.90 x.10.20.40.50.70%印尼越南泰国菲律宾新加坡马来西亚市场潜力超千亿:2021-2025东南亚数字经济交易规模(单位:千亿美元)低渗透:2021-2026东南亚电商渗透率37 11942.10.70.70(.50 .60.908.50&.20%东南亚中国美国201620212026E3302022-2025复合增长率(%)-9-460M2022年东南亚网民规模100M过去三年网民增长人数75% 网民占东南亚总人口8.9.4.0.5.4.4.2.5.0$.1).9%全球10.秘鲁9.加拿大8.越南7.印度尼西亚6.哥伦比亚5.墨西哥4.印度3.马来西亚2.菲律宾1.阿根廷增速快:2023E全球零售电商增长率TOP10面临挑战:用户需求差异化明显,提供本土化服务势在必行东南亚国家中,印尼和马来西亚以伊斯兰教为主;泰国及越南以佛教为主;菲律宾以天主教为主;新加坡则更加多元化越南泰国印尼马来西亚菲律宾新加坡佛教伊斯兰教基督教天主教印度教其他支付多样化21.855.519.450.512.848.10.98.813.816.920202025E卡国内支付手机钱包先享后付其他方式(如货到付款)渠道差异化宗教多元化本地物流体系细碎化多山、多岛、多林的复杂地形,对基础设施建设带来挑战各国海关规定不一致,信息缺乏透明度印尼物流成本高,几乎占印尼GDP的 25%各国物流市场较为分散,最后一公里配送差异化较大1705x%折扣和优惠券网站零售网站线下传统零售社交媒体第三方电商平台第三方电商平台、社交媒体、线下商超及零售网站渠道多元化发展从银行卡到电子钱包,再到帮助客户分摊成本的先享后付,清晰且匹配的本地支付策略有助于提升用户转化2020:687亿美元2025E:1798亿美元2020-2025E东南亚地区支付规模(十亿美元)资料来源:iKala,IDC-10-东南亚国家具有丰富的语言环境、不同的宗教信仰、文化背景及消费习惯,用户需求差异化明显。出海企业需要提供本土化服务、做好本土化运营,不断提升用户体验实现长效增长。【连连国际】东南亚本土支付解决方案助力商家链接全球商机连连国际基于连连在全球的60余张支付牌照搭建的全球支付网络,精准切入东南亚市场,打造了全球收单 国际钱包的产品解决方案,为东南亚本地线上线下商户、跨境电商企业、外贸企业、服务贸易企业等不同类型客户提供全链路的本地支付、跨境支付及增值服务,助力东南亚商家全球化、数字化进程,连接全球商机。本土化资质本土化团队印尼、泰国、越南和新加坡四国设立办公室组建服务能力更强、更懂当地市场的本土化团队,提供中文、英语等多语种客服支持,快速响应客户需求,提供本土化贴心服务本土化支付泰国本土一站式综合支付解决方案:多款产品满足境内外企业支付需求本土生态资源连接能力联合当地优质生态合作伙伴,提供物流、营销、知产等增值服务,提供从0-1的全链路跨境贸易解决方案通过线下展会、沙龙等多样化活动,为客户精准捕捉商机、抢占先机基础服务 高效收付兑支持包括印尼盾,泰铢、马拉西亚林吉特、菲律宾比索、越南盾在内的东南亚各币种及28种主流自由兑换币种的收、汇、付功能构建多款东南亚本土支付产品提供本土店铺收款、本地留学缴费服务、连连外贸支付东南亚本地收款账户等多个东南亚本土化产品,助力企业安全、高效收款、付款、汇款持有东南亚三国牌照,合规高效2019年,获得泰国央行(BOT)颁发的“银行卡支付”牌照和“授权支付”牌照2021年,新加坡金融管理局授予大型支付机构牌照(Major Payment Institution)2022年,印尼支付牌照落地2021年,连连泰国面向当地市场正式上线泰国本土一站式综合支付解决方案通过深厚服务经验、合规风控能力,本土化快速响应能力,全方位满足境内外企业的支付需求提供线下商户收款、线上独立站/APP收单、本地支付结合跨境收款、代付等多款产品率先接入麦当劳、Shopify等知名企业及平台,有效降低了企业所承担的跨境支付综合成本,提升了资金周转效率语言难:多使用葡萄牙语及西班牙语,日常运营及沟通难度较大物流难:拉美各国基础设施的质量和承运能力差异较大,运输时效及成本较难掌控支付难:本地支付方式多样化,如即时支付PIX、现金支付Boleto等。支付方式零散,为跨境电商收款时聚合所有支付方式增加了难度人口红利多拉美总人口 6.5亿语言:西班牙和葡萄牙语网购人数多 3亿互联网渗透率 75%社媒渗透率 64%资料来源:AMI,Statista,The World Bank盘子大潜力足增速快257848763082920222023E2024E2025E巴西人口:2.15亿拉美第一大经济国墨西哥人口:1.3亿拉美第二大经济国30%中国拉丁美洲2022-2025拉美市场电商市场容量(千亿美元)拉美市场在全球电商市场中占据不可忽视的重要地位,2022年,巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥三国进入全球电商增长率TOP10。得益于拉美地区网购人口及消费需求双高,2022年至2025年,拉美电商市场容量将从3780亿美元增长至8290亿美元的规模,保持25%的增长速度。拉美市场:人口基数大,发展持续向好的蓝海市场核心要点:提升本土化经营能力是出海企业的制胜关键面临主要挑战预计到2025年,拉美社交电商交易规模将从2022年的62亿美元增长至130亿美元6.217.9510.1813.0320222023E2024E2025E2022-2025拉美社交电商市场规模(千亿美元)相对于中国近30%的渗透率,拉美市场仍有较大的上升空间和发展潜力-12-专家观点专家观点【连连国际】专业扎实的拉美本土化金融服务助力企业长效经营连连国际拉美市场本土化四大能力布局拉美多年,本地部署成熟携手有资质的合作伙伴,打造省心、便捷、高效的跨境支付体验打通境内外资金结算通道,通过技术迭代令支付成功率与客户转化率明显上升,有效降低了支付综合成本,提升资金周转效率构建服务能力更强、更懂当地市场的本土化团队,提供本地化贴心服务提供中文、葡语、英语等多语种客服支持,快速响应客户需求,破解语言难、物流难等痛点高效收、汇、付:支持包括墨西哥比索在内的全球28种主流币种全球收单,接入多种本地支付方式:巴西子公司接入以Pix、Boleto为代表的多种新兴本地支付方式,帮助商户触达更多潜在买家全链路跨境金融服务体系:境内外优质金融机构合作,打造了纯线上化的全链路跨境金融服务体系,提供金融及外汇相关服务安全合规,高效省心一站式解决方案,让出海更简单本土化团队本土化支付本土化资质本土化服务,解决经营痛点聚合资源,抢占先机本土化合作伙伴上线美客多Mercado Libre平台墨西哥及巴西本土店收款服务,夯实本土化经营携手美客多Mercado Libre平台打造闭门沙龙、招商大会等各类深度活动、助力企业出海拉美,抢占先机依托在拉美市场的多年布局,连连国际凭借本土化资质、本土化支付、本土化合作伙伴及本土化团队,构建专业扎实的本土化金融支付服务,助力出海企业高效增长。中东市场:处于快速起步阶段,购买力强且客单价高中东地区累计人口超4.9亿,超过50%的常住人口为年轻人,平均年龄25岁,人口红利明显。预计2025年,中东电商交易规模将从2020年的220亿美元增长至500亿美元,增长率高达110%。沙特和阿联酋是该地区最大、增长最快的电商市场,购买力强劲且消费水平高。同时,支付和物流环节是制约电商发展的主要痛点,需要本地化的服务快速响应市场需求。阿联酋沙特经济水平高2022年阿联酋人均GDP超5万美元,位居全球第17位,高于德国和英国2022年沙特人均GDP超3万美元,位居全球第34位,高于西班牙和葡萄牙0 50 100 150 200140100150英国沙特阿联酋中国美国150150消费水平高社交化无处不在本地化要求很高高品质要求90%产品依赖进口中东地区交易规模22050020202025E110%市场洞察阿联酋互联网渗透率高达100%,网购比例超68%沙特互联网渗透率高达92%,网购比例超62%线上渗透率高-14-支付方式多样化电商支付方式中,信用卡占据了31%的市场份额,数字钱包占17%,银行转账占16%,货到付款占14%,借记卡占13%线下销售场景中,现金支付占有率第一,信用卡成为仅次于现金的第二大支付方式人口非常年轻资料来源:Statista,The World Bank,Bain,WorldPay&FIS中东客单价与发达电商市场对比(美元)货贸服贸出海双轮驱动/03政策及市场红利叠加,激发中企出海新兴市场政策红利加持下,新兴市场在行业市场红利基础上,不断释放数字化转型红利及模式创新红利。越来越多的中国企业“走出去”输出数字经济新模式新业态,将“中国模式”的可行性经验成功复制到新兴市场,满足当地市场需求,助力本土经济发展,实现互惠共赢。2023年6月2日区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)对菲律宾正式生效,标志着RCEP对15个签署国全面生效RCEP从降低货物贸易关税、规范投资标准、知识产权保护等方面为跨境贸易发展提供政策支持,吸引更多跨境企业入局2023年是共建“一带一路”倡议提出十周年。自2013年以来,中国与共建国家贸易规模稳步扩大,基础设施互联互通不断加强截至2023年6月,中国已经与152个国家和32个国际组织签署了200余份“一带一路”合作文件2020到2022年,东盟已连续三年成为我国第一大贸易伙伴,超过欧盟和美国RCEP协定加强贸易往来,助力区域内国家贸易提速换挡“一带一路”战略为中国企业走出去带来巨大机遇行业市场红利低电商渗透人口年轻化高度移动化消费升级化数字化转型红利物流金融基础设施运营管理模式创新红利短视频/直播社交游戏-15-资料来源:中国一带一路网、公开资料收集货贸出海:2023年上半年我国对非洲、东盟及拉美出口同比增速位居前三以中国供应链优势为重要支撑,2023年上半年我国与新兴市场国家货物贸易规模不断提升,其中对“一带一路”沿线国家进出口贸易额达6.89万亿元,同比增长9.8%,高出整体增速7.7个百分点,占进出口总值比重达34.3%;与东盟进出口贸易总值3.08万亿元,同比增长5.4%,出口1.81万亿元,增长8.6%;对非洲、拉丁美洲出口分别增长23.7%及6.0%;对欧盟出口与同期持平;对美国出口同期下滑12.0%。对“一带一路”沿线国家12.95万亿元同比增长7.5%占我国外贸进出口30.8%对东盟进出口贸易额6.89万亿元同比增长9.8%占进出口总值比重34.3%进出口贸易额3.08万亿元同比增长5.4%其中,出口1.81万亿元增长8.6 231月-6月资料来源:海关总署消费电子机电产品贱金属及制品美妆个护汽车家具家居服装橡胶制品纺织原料金属制品蓄电池电子元件对非洲及拉丁美洲同期对比对欧盟及美国同期对比对欧盟出口持平0%对美国出口下滑12.0%对非洲出口增长23.7%对拉美出口增长6.0%服贸出海:新服务、新技术、新产品不断涌现,满足多样化场景需求31,358.4亿元8.5%同比增长其中:13,639.2亿元知识密集型服务进出口服务贸易信息服务旅游服务物流运输金融服务留学教育人力资源当前,数字技术加速渗透催生跨境出海从劳动密集型向知识及技术密集型升级,以信息服务、物流运输、留学教育、旅游服务、金融服务等为代表的服务贸易焕发蓬勃生机。2023年上半年,中国服务贸易进出口总额3.14万亿元,同比增长8.5%,其中知识密集型服务贸易进出口额达1.36万亿元,同比增长12.3%,占服务贸易总额的比重提升至43.5%。政策红利不断释放下,中国与RCEP区域内国家的服务贸易往来有望得到较大幅度拓展,与“一带一路”沿线国家、新兴市场国家的服务贸易合作潜力将进一步释放。43.5%占服务进出口总体比重新服务新技术新场景资料来源:商务部-18-2023年1-6月中国服务进出口总额服务出口 7923.4亿元同比增长16%服务进口5715.8亿元同比增长7.5%金融科技赋能贸易出海/04以技术、场景、产品创新为驱动,产业级金融服务生态加速构建在新兴市场货物贸易及服务贸易并举发展的背景下,便捷高效的跨境支付与资金管理需求猛增。据亿邦智库调研,出海企业对跨境金融服务的受关注度高达34.19%。以数字技术及消费场景洞察为驱动,跨境金融服务机构基于出海企业多主体、多市场、多场景、多币种、多维度的服务需求,围绕本土客户需求进行产品创新,协同生态伙伴持续提升服务品质和客户体验,构建产业级金融服务新生态。产业级金融服务新生态基础跨境收付兑提供收款收单、实名支付及购汇多样化金融服务提供融资、风控服务、多币种现金管理、外汇、保理在内的综合金融服务系统大数据分析基于支付系统大数据分析,提升多平台数字化经营及风控能力运营端增值服务提供开店培训、营销推广、ERP及财税、物流售后及本地化服务全场景支付服务品牌企业(独立站)第三方平台卖家外贸企业服贸企业针对服务贸易场景化需求,提供航旅、留学教育、国际物流、MCN等个性化金融支付解决方案-20-34.19%出海企业关注跨境金融服务资料来源:亿邦智库调研新产品【连连国际】全链路数智化金融支付服务体系,助力企业高效合规出海针对不同类型出海企业服务需求,连连国际结合自研技术,利用大数据分析能力,构建起可服务全球企业的数字金融支付服务体系,提供量身定制的解决方案。全球收单/收款支持银行转账、本地钱包和信用卡收单,支持使用货币种类130 全链路数智化金融支付服务体系收管兑付人民币购汇跨境高效合规的人民币购汇出境账户管理支持按照业务类型开设多个账户,统一入口体系化管理,便捷实现不同账户间的资金调拨和不同账户的收付款对象管理,实时对账汇兑服务7*24小时汇率实时报价,专业高效的外汇风险管理方案委托交易、锁汇等功能一应俱全全球付款支持电子账单支付、信用卡支付、本地分发和跨境汇款,业务覆盖100多个国家及地区API开放敏捷输出遍布全球的业务网络成熟跨境贸易服务经验全球合规本地化经营能力KYC/KYB审核反洗钱/反欺诈底层技术与风控模型资金安全隐私保护 顺应服贸出海数字化发展趋势,2022年连连国际正式上线服务贸易行业解决方案,即依托发展成熟的跨境全链路收付兑能力和境内外双边持牌资质,围绕产业链上下游支付及复杂资金处理场景,为国际物流、旅游行业、留学教育、薪资分发、跨境医疗等不同出海行业的客户提供安全合规、高效低成本的支付解决方案,帮助客户降本增效,破解跨境服务贸易支付难题。【连连服贸】全场景服贸行业综合解决方案破解跨境支付难题全场景定制化全球收付及账户管理旅游行业国际物流留学教育服务佣金广告行业薪资分发技术服务跨境医疗场景多、碎片化支付多头对接资金归集难对账分账效率低跨境贸易支付痛难点可以实现一套完整的账户体系完成全球收付兑,助力用户降本增效,破解跨境服务贸易支付难题-22-连连国际服务贸易行业综合解决方案连连一站式薪酬支付解决方案支持为人力资源企业、用工平台以及国内外公司全球薪酬发放、利润结算,满足欧美、东南亚等主流地区币种支付需求,同时支持电子账单支付、信用卡支付、超过15个国家/地区的本地分发和全球180个国家的跨境汇款。一站式薪酬支付解决方案助力企业降本增效新加坡德丰船务公司DEFENG INTERNATIONAL LINES PTE.LTD薪金支付痛难点50-60%薪金占整个公司业务支付比例高频高额支出支付与管理难连连薪酬支付解决方案 一站式 合规化 数智化针对德丰多部门薪酬发放问题,线上薪酬管理与支付优化方案助力企业高效完成薪酬发放,降低成本 主营业务:国际货物运输代理、国际船舶管理、船员管理业务,同境内外多家知名船东有深度合作。公司部门:德丰设有船员部、业务部、证件部、船管部及综合行政部等主要部门数字化程度低且依赖大量人工操作与计算多元化收款/收单方式覆盖国际信用卡和本地支付方式收单,使用虚拟信用卡充值方便,收付灵活多渠道全球分发支持全球20 币种首付款,适用境外推广佣金,薪资等结算汇率无忧 成本可控透明汇率,外汇风险管理工具锁汇,多重机制规避汇率波动风险方案灵活 满足所需支持API/直连企业资金中心/财务系统,支持私有化部署东南亚本地留学缴费服务满足多样化需求伴随经济发展,东南亚家庭对教育的要求不断提高,海外留学趋势愈加明显,众多中国留学机构着手将国内成熟的服务经验拓展至东南亚地区。为更全面服务留学机构业务,连连国际正式上线东南亚本地留学缴费服务,为在欧美澳等主流国家和地区留学的东南亚学生提供支付服务,支持学生通过本国原币种完成留学费用汇款。留学机构缴费痛点渠道多管理难资金到账慢跨境支付涉及场景多,多渠道资金管理不便传统电汇流程繁琐,易出错,到账慢收款方需求复杂海外院校收款需求多样,国内渠道无法满足多样化需求汇损风险高外汇持续波动,影响企业利润 面对东南亚本地如新加坡、印尼、泰国等留学生,支持学生通过本国货币缴款 留学机构提供多样化缴费方式,满足不同国家院校需求 支持企业以更优汇率换汇,并最快当日到达境外学校账户 一对一专属服务,全线上操作连连东南亚本地留学缴费服务-24-跨境收付兑解决方案直击航旅支付三大痛点2023年1月-6月,中国旅行服务进出口5525.4亿元,同比增长65.4,是增长最快的服务贸易领域。针对出境游、入境游及境外游三大场景,连连国际可为机票代理商、酒店代理商、出境社、入境社、租车公司、批发商、OTA(在线旅游提供商)及TMC(商旅服务商)等旅游产业链相关企业提供场景化支付解决方案,助力企业长效经营。机票代理商酒店代理商出境社入境社连连旅游行业跨境支付与账户管理解决方案入境游境外游三大航旅场景TMC企业综合账户体系人民币跨境、境内外收付一体 境内外分发一体统一管理后台全球首款、全球收单、全球付款、多渠道资金分发支持私有化部署API、直连企业资金中心、财务系统产业链相关企业批发商OTA连连能力输出租车公司旅游企业无实体商品,在审查贸易的真实性和交易价格的合理性上往往困难重重在传统香港银行账户开户和贸易款项的结算都比较困难面临申报材料多、流程长、资金周转率低等诸多难题不涉及到实体商品,限制多,基本依靠离岸银行收付款在线航旅支付三大痛点出境游面向零售、跨境电商和产业互联网行业,进行专业研究、趋势前瞻是企业创新、风险投资和股票市场的重要参考,由亿邦专家级发布人召开双线发布会,全网传播下载,多家媒体分发重点报告:未来零售、跨境电商、产业互联网等系列发展报告依据客户个性化需求,针对性帮助客户完成符合需求的行业研究,真实展示客户的行业趋势洞察和引领能力,为相关合作伙伴企业决策提供专业的研究参考适用对象:有行业创新引领能力的企业梳理企业商业模式,提炼企业产业互联网、跨境电商或新消费品牌价值,形成可持续发展的商业模式。面向人群:产业互联网、跨境电商、新消费品牌企业决策人由亿邦智库署名发布的研究性文章,基于事实研究,协助企业讲透商业价值,展示创新引领能力,积极影响上下游客户和资本市场的高维产品适用场景:Pre IPO、股权融资、合作伙伴的专业沟通场景亿邦智库部分研究成果面向零售、跨境电商和产业互联网创新企业形成有行业引领效应的媒体联合传播,并将成果分享给风险投资机构、券商、基金及产业政策研究部门参考关于亿邦智库 亿邦智库是亿邦动力旗下产业研究咨询机构。亿邦智库以“更懂行业”见长,以“专业、专注和专家”为特色,有敏锐的新观点洞察,有一线调研数据,有鲜活企业案例,有电商及产业数字化方法论,在未来零售、跨境电商、产业互联网等领域具有领先的智库品牌影响力。亿邦智库也是长期为商务部、发改委等国家部委及各级政府,提供电子商务及产业数字化政策研究服务的知名专业机构。关于连连国际 连连国际(LianLian Global)是连连数字旗下核心品牌,是中国跨境贸易中支付金融与服务领域的综合创新型企业。连连国际凭借合规安全实力和科技创新能力,搭建了畅达全球的支付金融网络与覆盖企业全生命周期的贸易服务网络。围绕跨境企业核心需求,连连国际联合行业生态伙伴,打造了集一键开店、全球收付款、收单、全球分发、汇兑、融资服务平台、退税等服务为一体的一站式跨境贸易服务平台,助力中国品牌扬帆出海,货通全球。全球收单电商平台/外贸收款批量付款卖家保险融资服务平台锁定汇率币种管理国际付款连连卡提前收款跨境结售汇#1DTC品牌商多平台卖家初创卖家合规、安全、高效、低成本全链路一站式供应链/产业带对接知识产权服务投融资对接财税顾问海外对接出口退税VAT付款平台索赔人才培养品牌出海选品工具ERP工具海外广告物流推荐直播课程全球开店建站/店铺运营相关服务由连连国际合作机构提供汇率报价由合作银行提供综合以上能力,连连国际还提供专业的服务贸易行业解决方案旅游行业国际物流留学教育服务佣金广告行业薪资分发技术服务跨境医疗全球支付网络跨境贸易服务网络致力于成为全球贸易企业首选的一站式服务平台#1#2#1#2#1#1#1#1#1#1#1#1报告编写组亿邦智库 首席分析师樊 飞报告主笔报告指导亿邦智库 董事长郑 敏亿邦智库亿邦智库 执行院长亿邦动力 联合创始人王 姗刘 宸
2023年深度行业分析研究报告目目录录一,一,如何理解内贸集运行业的投资机会,格局优势如何理解内贸集运行业的投资机会,格局优势,需求潜力需求潜力,7,一,内贸集运的商业逻辑,71,内贸集运的行业特征,.
年中国企业出海智能电视大屏营销指南中国首席营销官,调研报告,本报告专注于研究中国大陆们的海外市场营销策略,分享中企出海品牌建设洞察,此报告是北亚区调研报告的一部分,研究方法,综合运用定性和定量方法开展.
伦敦经济月刊(2013 年 1月)2013 年 1 月 18 日 中银研究产品系列 经济金融展望季报 中银调研 宏观观察 银行业观察 国际金融评论 国别/地区观察 作 者:王 静 中国银行研究院 王宁远 中国银行研究院 电 话:010 6659 6460 签发人:陈卫东 审 稿:周景彤 廖淑萍 联系人:王 静 刘佩忠 电 话:010 6659 6623 对外公开 全辖传阅 内参材料 2023 年 6 月 27 日 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)近期中国出口变化特点 及未来趋势分析 2023 年以来,海运运价指数持续走低,港口集装箱大量空置,出口交货值连续下降,越南、马来西亚、韩国等其他出口型经济体出口集体负增长。基于上述事实,市场预期中国出口增速将跌入负值区间。然而,1-5 月,中国出口累计增长 0.3%,其中,3、4月分别增长14.8%、8.5%,远超市场预期。事实上,中国与其他出口型经济体的优势领域各有差异,常用的出口前瞻指标也无法反映中国出口全貌。钢铁价格优势、积压订单集中释放、出口目的地多元、新能源产业链优势增强是近期中国出口增长的主要原因。但这些支撑因素的持续性各不相同,未来国际需求若不见明显提振,中国出口恐将承压。研究院 宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)1 近期中国出口变化特点及未来趋势分析 2023 年以来,海运运价指数持续走低,港口集装箱大量空置,出口交货值连续下降,越南、马来西亚、韩国等其他出口型经济体出口集体负增长。基于上述事实,市场预期中国出口增速将跌入负值区间。然而,1-5 月,中国出口累计增长 0.3%,其中,3、4 月分别增长 14.8%、8.5%,远超市场预期。事实上,中国与其他出口型经济体的优势领域各有差异,常用的出口前瞻指标也无法反映中国出口全貌。钢铁价格优势、积压订单集中释放、出口目的地多元、新能源产业链优势增强是近期中国出口增长的主要原因。但这些支撑因素的持续性各不相同,未来国际需求若不见明显提振,中国出口恐将承压。一、中国出口表现好于其他出口型经济体 近期,中国出口超预期增长,越南、马来西亚、韩国等其他亚洲出口型经济体出口集体负增长,这与出口商品结构、出口目的地结构等差异有关。(一)中国出口正增长 2023 年 1-5 月,中国出口累计增长 0.3%(按美元计,下同)。其中,3、4 月单月增速分别为 14.8%、8.5%。从产品结构看,钢铁、机电和劳动密集型产品出口增长较快。从主要贸易伙伴看,东盟国家、俄罗斯是主要支撑。中国钢铁出口报价低于国际水平,带动中国钢铁出口快速增长。2023 年以来,受俄乌冲突、土耳其地震的影响,中国以外的钢铁产区产量大幅下滑。4 月,全球粗钢产量同比下降 2.4%,其中,欧盟同比下降 11.7%,土耳其同比下降 20.6%。全球钢铁供应紧张,价格处于历史高位(图 1)。中国钢铁出口报价上调幅度有限,截至 2023年 5 月 9 日,印度、土耳其、独联体热轧卷板出口报价(FOB)分别为 670 美元/吨、740 美元/吨和 635 美元/吨,中国 FOB 为 575 美元/吨,较印度、土耳其、独联体出口报价分别低 95 美元/吨、165 美元/吨和 60 美元/吨。明显的价格优势带动中国钢铁出口放量增长。1-5 月,中国出口钢材 3636.9 万吨,累计同比增长 40.9%,出口金额累 2 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)计同比增长 15.1%,对中国出口增速贡献 1.3%。图 1:钢铁价格走势 资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院 新能源产品出口“量价同升”带动机电出口高景气。1-4 月,“新三样”(新能源汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池)出口累计增长 59.6%,拉动机电产品出口增长 3.6 个百分点,拉动整体出口增速 1.9 个百分点。其中,新能源汽车出口金额累计增长150.1%,出口数量累计增长 119.3%,其余则由出口价格增长贡献。中国出口的新能源汽车已从“性价比”优势转变为“高端化”优势,产品溢价能力不断增强。相当一部分车型的海外定价显著高于国内,溢价幅度为 30%-50%。如相同配置的比亚迪 tang,在国内售价为 30 万元左右,挪威售价约合人民币 40 万元,与同为在挪威销售的纯电动中大型 SUV宝马 ix3 售价相近。除比亚迪外,名爵、小鹏、欧拉等品牌的部分车型在海外定价也高于国内。相比之下,受需求走弱影响,手机、集成电路出口分别同比下降 10.5%、15.2%,拉低机电出口增速 0.07、0.11 个百分点。东盟国家、俄罗斯是近期中国出口的重要支撑。1-5 月,对美国、欧盟出口增速延续去年的回落趋势,分别累计下降 15.1%、4.9%。中国对东盟出口累计增长 8.1%,对出口增长的贡献度由去年同期的1.4%上升至9.3%。由于地缘政治冲突,俄罗斯加强了与中国的贸易往来,中国对俄罗斯出口金额累计增长 75.6%,占出口总额比重快速上升至 3.3%,而去年同期仅为 1.8%。2022 年以来,制裁地区对俄罗斯出口规模几近减半,非制裁地区对俄罗斯出口保持增长,或说明俄罗斯进口存在地区转移。2023 年以来,中国对俄罗斯出口的机电、化工、运输设备(尤其是汽车)、塑料、橡胶快速801001201401601802022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-01钢材综合价格指数Myspic综合钢价指数宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)3 增长,贱金属、纺织品、光学产品稳步增长(图 2)。图 2:中国对俄罗斯出口产品增速 资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院 (二)其他出口型经济体出口贸易集体减速 2023 年 4 月,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、越南、印度出口额降幅分别高达 29.4%、17.4%、14.7%、12.7%,同 2022 年普遍单月增长 10%以上形成鲜明对比(图 3)。德国出口同比下降 0.3%,是 2023 年以来的首次负增长 图 3:部分亚洲出口型经济体出口增速变化(%)资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院 近期,马来西亚、印度尼西亚、印度出口降幅均进一步扩大。2023 年 4 月,马来-140-80-2040100160220280340400%塑料橡胶机电-80-2040100160220280340400%贱金属光学产品纺织制品-100-500501001502002502019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-01印度尼西亚泰国马来西亚菲律宾越南印度 4 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)西亚出口同比降幅较 3月进一步扩大 16个百分点。其中,电子产品及零部件、棕榈油及制品、液化天然气等主要出口商品出口额同比均有明显下跌,只有占出口份额10.2%的精炼油出口实现 30.1%的增长(表 1),该增长由出口量上升驱动(出口量增长 35.6%,出口均价下降 16.6%)。印度尼西亚出口于 3月转为负增长,4 月降幅扩大17.8个百分点,原油、天然气出口分别减少59.4%、8.0%。2月以来,印度出口连续负增长,4月降幅扩大 5.5 个百分点,出口额降至 6个月最低。表 1:2023 年 4月马来西亚主要商品出口同比增速(%)产品 电子产品及零部件 精炼油 棕榈油及制品 液化天然气 原油 木材及 木制品 天然橡胶 份额(%)41.9 10.2 7.6 3.7 1.5 1.4 0.2 同比增速(%)-6.5 30.1-34.8-13.6-45.7-43.6-46.9 资料来源:马来西亚统计局,中国银行研究院 越南终端需求品出口全线下跌。2023 年以来,越南出口已连续 5 个月负增长,最高跌幅达 27.2%,出口萎缩程度显著大于前述亚洲经济体。2023 年 1-5 月,越南出口累计下降 11.6%,美欧等西方发达经济体需求收缩显著拖累其出口,越南对美国、加拿大、德国、欧盟整体出口分别减少 20.0%、17.9%、11.0%、9.0%。作为出口主力,电子产品、机械设备、纺织服装、鞋靴、木材及木制品这五大出口消费品均大幅下跌(表 2)。表 2:2023 年 1-5月越南主要商品出口累计同比增速(%)产品 计算机、电子产品及零部件 机械设备 及零部件 纺织服装 鞋靴 木材及木制品 份额(%)14.9 12.2 9 6 3.7 同比增速(%)-9.8-5.1-17.8-13.3-28.7 资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院 韩国半导体出口持续低迷。2022 年 8 月起,韩国第一大出口商品半导体出口额连续 9 个月同比下滑,跌幅多次超过 40%(图 4)。半导体产品对华出口跌势扩大,从宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)5 2022 年第四季度的-31.7%进一步下滑至 2023 年第一季度的-44.5%。图 4:韩国出口同比增速 资料来源:Wind,韩国国际贸易协会,中国银行研究院 德国出口持续疲软。2022 年以来,德国出口月度增速均低于 9%(美元计价),2023 年前四个月,德国出口累计同比仅增长 2.2%,其中 4 月出口额下滑 0.3%。对中国、俄罗斯出口有显著下跌,部分优势制造业出口也遭遇挑战。2023 年 1-4 月,对中国出口额同比下滑 13.3%,对中国出口份额下降 1 个百分点至 6.1%,对俄罗斯出口降幅则高达 44.1%;同期,钢铁、化学品出口额分别下降 16.3%、14.4%。德国的汽车和化学品在中国市场业绩有显著下滑。2023 年一季度,大众汽车在中国的交付量下降15%,巴斯夫在中国销量同比下降 29%。(三)中国与其他出口型经济体出口表现差异原因分析 大宗商品出口结构差异。马来西亚、印度尼西亚等国主要出口能源、农产品等大宗商品。中国虽是大宗商品净进口国,但钢铁出口量较大。2023 年以来,全球供应链显著修复,加之全球需求疲软,大宗商品价格总体高位回落。4 月,天然气价格同比降幅比 3 月扩大 16 个百分点至 67.4%;布伦特原油价格同比继续维持高于 20%的降幅;伦敦金属交易所指数(LME 基本金属指数)比 3 月下降 0.1 个点。马来西亚、印-50-40-30-20-10010203040502022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-03%出口总额半导体出口对美国出口对中国出口 6 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)度尼西亚等国出口的主要资源品,如原油、棕榈油价格同呈下降趋势。印度尼西亚将6 月上半月毛棕榈油参考价格定为 811.68 美元/吨,低于 5 月下半月的 893.23 美元/吨。主要原因在于主要棕榈油进口国库存水平偏高,短期大量进口棕榈油需求有限。此外,2022 年底,印度尼西亚棕榈油出口商已开始积累大量出口配额,目前仍有超出正常消费水平的出口许可。马来西亚、印度尼西亚主要出口品的国际市场供过于求,且短期内仍将持续。相比之下,如前文所述,受俄乌冲突、土耳其地震影响,国际钢铁市场供小于求。受益于供应链和成本优势,中国钢铁出口报价低于国际市场,带动中国钢铁出口高增。机电产品细分优势差异。从 HS2 位编码分类来看,中韩出口结构较为相似,机电产品出口占总出口的比重均为 45%左右。但从 HS4 位编码分类来看,中韩两国机电产品出口的结构性差异正在加大。韩国高度集中于半导体产业链,集成电路占出口比重达到 17%。存储半导体市场持续低迷以及美国半导体法案的“长臂管辖”严重影响韩国半导体出口,进而累及韩国整体出口表现。在中国机电类出口中,半导体占比较低,集成电路仅占 4.6%,“新三样”(新能源车、锂电池、太阳能电池)占比快速上升。在国际绿色转型背景下,新能源产品出口高景气对中国出口增速的拉动作用日益加大。欧盟是中国新能源产品出口快速增长的主要拉动。欧盟提出“REPower EU”能源投资计划,将 2030 年可再生能源占比目标从 40%提高至 45%。计划发布后,中国出口欧盟新能源产品同比增速甚至一度超过 90%。2022 年四季度以来,其他地区新能源产业链产品需求放缓,而欧盟新能源产品需求旺盛,尤其是光伏电池和锂电池,二者占中国出口至欧盟新能源产品总额的 50%以上。此外,欧盟国家对中国出口的新能源电动汽车需求较大。2023年一季度中国对欧盟出口新能源车辆同比增长581%,拉动新能源车辆出口 63 个百分点。出口目的地集中度差异。非欧美市场对中国出口的重要性日渐提升,对俄罗斯、非洲国家、东盟国家出口增长能在一定程度上抵消欧美需求走弱的负面影响。2018 年之前,美国、欧洲的终端需求与中国出口增速高度正相关。近年来,中国积极参与区域贸易、持续深化与非欧美国家的经贸合作、“一带一路”效果显现,东盟以及俄罗宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)7 斯等其他国家对中国出口增速的拉动力明显增加。借鉴学术文献中常用的出口需求方程,以 OECD 工业生产指数(代表国外实际居民收入)、出口价格指数、美国 PMI、欧元区综合 PMI、越南制造业 PMI 作为解释变量、以中国出口增速作为被解释变量构建模型,并通过 Chow Test 对模型的结构性突变进行检验,结果发现该模型在 2018 年 6月,即中美贸易摩擦开始显化之际,存在结构性突变。对模型进行分组回归后发现,美国 PMI、欧元区综合 PMI 对中国出口增速的边际影响下降,越南制造业 PMI 的边际影响提高(表 3)。在全球产业分工中,越南主要承担最终品加工组装环节,并且出口目的地高度集中,从中国大陆等东亚经济体进口电子、机械设备以及纺织服装的上游原材料,加工组装后出口至美国为主的下游消费市场。2022 年,对美国出口金额占越南出口总额比重高达 29.4%,其中,针织服装、非针织服装、鞋靴对美出口占相应商品出口总额分别约六成、五成、四成。表 3:中国出口增速回归结果 Chow Test 月份 F 统计量 P 值 2018-06 6.917 0.000 2018-06 之前 2018-06 之后 变量 系数 P 值 变量 系数 P 值 美国 PMI 2.17 0.000 美国 PMI 1.72 0.216 欧元区 PMI 1.14 0.002 欧元区 PMI 0.90 0.478 越南 PMI 0.17 0.081 越南 PMI 0.19 0.010 OECD 工业生产指数 0.21 0.008 OECD 工业生产指数 0.27 0.007 出口价格 指数-0.37 0.004 出口价格 指数-0.25 0.006 资料来源:作者计算得出,中国银行研究院 二、中国出口表现好于市场预期 作为三大需求之一,出口是市场普遍关注的宏观经济变量。海运数据、出口交货值和各国自中国的进口数据是市场观察、预测出口变化常用高频前瞻指标。2023 年以来,这些高频前瞻指标走势与出口表现存在差异,由此产生一个疑问:中国出口增速 8 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)是虚高吗?事实上,除指标统计方法不同外,近期外贸领域的变化也是导致高频前瞻数据无法准确预测出口走势的重要原因。(一)海运运力供给改善使海运数据持续走低,与出口表现明显不同 港口集装箱吞吐量和海运运价指数是业界用于观察、预测出口变化常用高频前瞻指标。然而,1-4 月,全国主要港口集装箱吞吐量仅增长 4.8%,CCFI 运价指数由1255.9 下降至 958.4,下降幅度为 23.7%,与出口表现明显不同。集装箱吞吐量无法准确反映近期出口变化的原因在于:一是近期大幅拉高出口增速的产品无法通过集装箱运载,如汽车、钢材、成品油等。汽车依靠滚装船运载,且依靠中欧班列运载的比重逐渐提升;钢材依靠干散货船运输;成品油须使用专门的油船运输。二是港口集装箱吞吐量数据不区分进口与出口,3、4月进口分别下降1.4%、7.9%,对港口集装箱吞吐量产生一定拉低效应。三是中国出口产品高端化趋势加强,集装箱货值提高。由于新能源产业链相关商品货值高于传统劳动密集型产品,2023 年以来,港口集装箱的整体货值呈稳步增长态势。从历史经验看,集装箱吞吐量增速与出口增速的相关性并不强,仅为 23%。运力供给改善是海运运价指数与出口增速背离的主要原因。运价指数是运力供给和需求两端共同作用的结果,运输成本、运输效率是重要影响因素。2020 年下半年至2022 年下半年,受疫情影响,港口缺员,船舶塞港,海运运输效率大幅降度,运价指数一路飙升。2022 年下半年以来,疫情冲击趋于平稳,且此前相关企业加大集装箱、船舶投入,运力短缺明显缓解,海运供给大幅改善,带动运价指数逐渐走低,与中国出口增速呈背离态势。此外,陆路运输对出口的拉动作用逐渐加大。4 月,中欧班列累计开行 1459 列、运送货物 16 万标准箱,分别同比增长 25%、45%。中欧班列与东盟、俄罗斯等经济体对接较多,中国对其出口表现好于对美国出口增速,后者则以海运运输为主。宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)9 (二)积压订单集中释放是出口交货值与出口增速差异的主要原因 2023 年 3、4 月工业企业出口交货值同比增速分别为-5.4%、0.7%,远低于出口增速。市场甚至对出口数据真实性产生怀疑。事实上,出口交货值与出口增速在统计口径上存在本质差异。一是统计范围不同,出口交货值是由规模以上工业企业生产且交给外贸经营部门的产品价值;出口总额是所有外贸经营单位和工业企业自营出口的产品价值。因此,外贸经营单位在国内销售的产品计入出口交货值,但不计入出口额;农产品和占比较大的规下企业出口产品金额计入出口额,但不计入出口交货值。近期中国出口增长较快,小企业和民营企业贡献较大。从 PMI 分项数据可以看出,小企业新出口订单指数的反弹幅度和速度好于大、中型企业,导致近期出口增速与出口交货值增速背离。二是计算方法不同,出口交货值对来料加工产品仅计算加工费,而出口额则按出口产品全价计算。出口交货值是按照外贸经营部门的收购价格计算,出口总额则按照离岸价格计算。三是报告期不同。出口交货值仅统计本期生产的产品价值,出口总额统计的是本期出口的产品总值,对生产时期不做要求。由于前期生产的出口订单集中交付是近期出口高增的重要支撑,因此,近期出口交货值与出口增速差异较大。从全球主要的劳动密集型产品出口国来看,疫情防控政策放开后,通常会经历“订单新增积压订单释放出口快速增长”的过程,如 2021年 11 月-2022 年 4 月的越南。2022 年底,疫情及其防控政策对中国供应链产生一定冲击,影响企业出口订单交付。疫情防控政策放开后,多个省份组织企业出国抢订单,这类订单多以劳动密集型产品为主。1 月新出口订单指数开始回暖,2、3 月攀升至扩张区间。考虑到生产周期,这些新订单约在 2023 年 3-4 月陆续交付,此时出口交货值同比增速为负,但降幅大幅收缩,而出口增速大幅提升至 14.8%。这说明出口高增主要依靠前期和当期订单拉动。PTA 产业链负荷率(纺织服装行业景气度的重要指标)数据也有所印证(图 6)。PTA 产业链负荷率在 2023 年 1 月底止跌反弹,3 月达峰后开始回落。10 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)图 6:PTA 产业织机负荷率 资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院(三)转口贸易增加使双边贸易统计差异加大 他国自中国进口增速是市场用于观察、预测中国出口变化的重要指标之一。由于口径不同,双边贸易统计通常存在一定差异。从历史数据看,中国对越南、新加坡的出口通常高于越南、新加坡自中国的进口。而对欧盟出口数据则低于欧盟进口数据。近期,中越贸易统计差异有所扩大(图 7)。2023 年 3 月中国对越南出口增长38.2%,但越南自中国进口仅增长 6.8%。主要原因或为转口贸易的扩大。中国出口商品至越南,经加工后再出口至他国,此数据计入中国对越南出口统计,但越南将其认定为转口商品而不计入其进口数据。近期随着中国产业转移、美国“去中国化”趋势加强,不少中国企业将产品在越南进行中转后再出口至欧美市场,从而加大了中越贸易统计差异。0204060801002022-10-072022-11-072022-12-072023-01-072023-02-072023-03-072023-04-072023-05-07%宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)11 图 7:中国对越南出口增速与越南自中国进口增速之差 资料来源:Wind,中国银行研究院 三、中国出口未来趋势分析 中国与其他出口型国家的出口走势明显不同,前瞻高频数据走弱不能说明中国出口虚高。未来中国出口增长的持续性取决于前述四大支撑因素的可持续性。一是钢铁出口的支撑作用或将减弱。国际需求走弱、供应紧张缓解双重作用下,中国钢铁出口或难以保持高速增长。2023 年 5 月,全球制造业 PMI 为 49.6%,仍未攀升至扩张区间。全球制造业持续弱势运行,对钢材需求相应走弱。此外,地缘政治冲突对欧洲等地钢铁生产的影响逐渐减小,海外钢铁产量的同比降幅正逐步收窄。由于中国对欧盟出口钢铁比重较低,欧盟碳关税的实施对中国钢铁出口影响较小。总体来看,虽然中国钢铁出口具备价格优势,但在国际需求走弱、供给提升背景下,出口高速增长难以为继。二是东盟对中国出口的支撑作用有待观察。当前,中国与东盟之间的贸易主要仍以中间品为主。中国作为东盟的最主要上游原材料供应商,中间品出口是核心拉动。而美欧作为东盟最终制成品的主要流向,其终端需求变化也影响中国对东盟出口表现。虽然 2023 年前 5 个月中国对东盟出口增长较快,但 4 月单月增幅回落明显,5 月更是降至负值区间,欧美终端需求走弱对“中国-东盟出口”的负面影响已有所显-40-2002040602019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-01 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)现。未来国际需求如无明显提振,中国对东盟出口恐将被持续压制。三是新能源产业链出口竞争优势的持续性和确定性最强。一方面,全球绿色转型趋势不可逆转。俄乌冲突的爆发后,过度依赖俄罗斯天然气的欧洲各国开始重新思考新能源转型的路线图。这不仅加快了欧美国家用电动车替代传统汽车的步伐,也加大了欧盟国家对太阳能、风能相关产品的需求,为中国新能源产业链相关产品的出口提供了市场空间。另一方面,技术储备和完备的产业链布局使中国相关产业的全球竞争力得以延续。截止 2022 年底,中国在电动汽车领域共提交 41011 项专利申请,位居世界第一。这些专利主要与电池相关,例如换电、快速充电以及效率更高、寿命更长的电池组,中国在电池领域处于世界领先水平。此外,中国新能源产业已形成从原材料供应、关键零部件研发生产、成品设计制造、基础设施配套建设的完备产业链,由此带来较强的成本竞争优势和风险抵御能力。2022 年,在全球多家车企遭遇不同程度的芯片短缺、电池涨价等供应链危机的背景下,中国电动车企销量依旧保持高增长,高度垂直、自主可控的供应链体系功不可没。此外,随着相关企业不断完善海外营销、售后服务网络,海外用户黏性将进一步提升,进一步增强中国新能源产业链的国际竞争力。四是劳动密集型产品前期积压订单释放的持续性最弱,外需不振背景下新订单持续承压。5 月出口增速回落至-7.5%,而出口交货值增速已于 4 月由负转正,这说明当期生产的出货值对出口总额贡献更多,积压订单的释放进入尾声。新出口订单指数已于 4 月回落至收缩区间,5 月再次环比下降。未来新增订单恐将持续承压。一方面,欧美货币政策仍以紧缩为主、银行业流动性风险加剧、美国超额储蓄预计于三季度末释放完毕,国际需求短期内难以提振。另一方面,随着中国部分产业转移至东南亚地区,东盟国家在劳动密集型产品出口领域对中国的替代效应恐将加强。综上所述,未来中国出口的拉低因素大于支撑因素,增长将面临压力。以技术升级为核心支撑的新能源产品出口值得关注。宏观观察 2023 年第 31 期(总第 486 期)13 四、政策建议 一是密切关注外需不振对出口企业经营的冲击,及时为其提供支持与服务。密切追踪不同经济体经济形势和需求变化,提前为相关企业提供趋势研判信息,辅助其快速切换市场和产品、加强成本控制、提高经营效率。加快推动内外贸一体化发展,促进内外贸标准认证、监管规则衔接,扩大内外销产品“同线同标同质”实施范围。构建内外联通现代物流体系,完善综合立体交通网,提升货运服务能力。搭建内外贸供需对接平台,畅通企业“出口转内销”的渠道,为企业打通国内外市场提供便利。二是加大对企业开拓多元市场的支持力度。新兴经济体对中国出口的支撑作用日益重要,然而企业开拓相关市场的配套服务尚不完善。应从金融和信息服务两个方面加大支持力度。一方面,要扩大出口信保的覆盖面,为向新兴市场经济体出口的企业提供增信支持。积极引导金融机构合作开展“信保 担保”融资模式。引导金融机构在跨境服务、投融资便利等领域先行先试,围绕跨境电商、市场采购等外贸新业态,持续提升外资外贸服务水平。另一方面,要为出口企业提供综合信息服务,如海外国家关于土地、环保、劳动力等领域的法律法规信息、境外展会信息等,同时借助进博会、贸促会等平台,助力企业更好地拓展海外市场。三是关注国际经贸规则、政经格局变化对优势产业的潜在影响。新能源等产业正逐渐成为中国出口新动能,未来增长前景较为广阔。与半导体领域相比,新能源领域目前面临的经贸摩擦相对较少,但考虑到外部不确定性复杂严峻,要关注潜在风险隐患。中国要依靠自身在新能源产业的综合领先优势,加快推动制度层面的国际交流和对话,提高自身在新能源国际标准和认证领域的话语权。有关部门要密切关注海外重点市场与优势产业相关的政策法规动向,并及时向相关企业进行必要的风险提示;同时要加强对出口产品质量及定价等的跟踪监督,避免可能的贸易争端。积极整合行业组织和链主企业力量,加快加强新能源标准、计量、认证认可、检验检测等体系和能力建设,尽快建立同国际标准、规则和普适方法接轨的国内新能源产品出口标准。近期其他研究报告 A99.银行业开拓发展新局面 中国银行研究院课题组 04.03 A98.疫后经济稳定回升,政策需提高稳定性 中国银行研究院课题组 04.03 A97.全球经济结构性矛盾凸显,货币政策紧缩周期延长 中国银行研究院课题组 04.03 B11.以沪滇协作为先导 打造金融服务东西部协作的“中行品牌”张兴荣 纪飞峰 郑荣信 06.20 B10.新形势下出口跨境电商发展特点及银行金融服务策略建议 徐海波 严兆军 刘扬 05.19 B09.硅谷银行破产的科创金融角度分析及启示 张建刚 杨巍 03.31 C31.近期中国出口变化特点及未来趋势 王静 王宁远 06.27 C30.我国城投平台的发展历史、风险分析及相关建议 梁斯 06.13 C29.我国进口结构变化新趋势与优化方向 王静 05.09 D19.我国住房按揭贷款提前还款问题研究 叶怀斌 06.15 D18.我国银行消费者权益保护的现状、问题及对策建议 李一帆 龚一泓 06.13 D17.金融消费者保护的历史演进、最新发展及相关建议 李佩珈 06.08 G09.本币国际化:理论和现实的困局及选择 陈卫东 边卫红 熊启跃 初晓 06.21 G08.英国养老金危机的演进历程、根源及启示 熊启跃 初晓 06.21 G07.中美经济差距扩大:现实表征、金融因素及政策含义 王家强 06.21 J16.“一带一路”倡议助力人民币国际化 李颖婷 06.21 J15.基于 SOFR 的美元基准利率改革进展及影响 边卫红 05.30 J14.新变局下如何在上合组织内推动人民币国际化 卜俊飞 05.23 T08.美国政府限制对华高科技领域投资的影响及应对 王有鑫 06.07 T07.“东升西降”格局下我行在新兴经济体的业务发展策略 王有鑫 李颖婷 05.23 T06.RCEP 生效进展、问题及应对 曹鸿宇 04.12 A 经济金融展望季报 B 中银调研 C 宏观观察 D 银行业观察 G 全球经济金融问题研究 J 国际金融评论 T 国别地区观察 下载地址:http:/web.bank-of- 报送:董事长、行长、监事长及管理层成员,驻行纪检监察组,董事 抄送:总行各部门、各直属机构,各附属公司,各一级分行、直属分行,中银香港,各海外分 行、附属行、代表处 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日 伦敦经济月刊(伦敦经济月刊(2013年年 1月)月)2013 年年 1 月月 18 日日
外贸订单转化“好”方法主 讲 人:埃 马 老 师CONTENTS0103040202/2 26 602优秀贸业务员必学三种常见海外买家吸引更多买家成交课程亮点超级重要的五步骤01W.R.A.P让业务员做的更佳W.R.A.P 教育方法1234Widen your optionsAttain distance before decidingPrepare to be wrongReality test your assumption02搞定买家的五个步骤第一步骤:预备步骤预备步骤主要是分两个部分:A:选择好时间联系客户。B:刚认识就尽量了解一些主要事情如:【是否第一次在中国采购】【是否游览我们公司首页】第二步骤:探索 TAN SUO 1:主要是通过一些聪明的问题就可以知道客户的想法,如:【这款产品主要功能就是省电,请问省电对你来说很重要吗】【我们公司生产机械都进口的,请问你在乎机械是哪里的吗】等等的这种问题就可了解客户具体的想法。第三步骤:建议及选择1:别随便推荐产品,一定要推荐符合客户当地市场需求。2:别这么着急推荐这么多,先与客户谈他比较感兴趣的商品3:推荐的时候最多提供两三个选择,免得客户犹豫。第四步骤:被拒绝的准备1:客户不是拒绝你,客户是拒绝你的产品,要分清楚。2:尽量去了解客户具体拒绝的原因并提供合理的方案。3:尽量让客户起码试一下小定单或样品单,并试试五号步骤第五步骤:自信表现1:无论什么情况你一定要表现自信。2:客户拒绝你的时候也要表现理解。3:尽量让客户足够放心购买样品单或小定单【双倍退款】4:客户同意与你合作的话一定要用合同【别用P.I】03常见买家种类及回复最佳方法代理商代理商01批发商批发商02零售商零售商03常见买家种类线上线下零售商他们经常来中国采购产品在他们自己网站推广话术1:款式多 We have our products development team work whom always think outside the box and develop new products.every few months we will have many new desigsn,would you like to give you monthly update?话术2:发货快More than new designs are ready for quick shipping within 5 days,trust you will love all of them,would you like to have a look?we contact to tell you very nice news that we have more than.designs are ready to ship.线上线下批发商他们经常来中国采购产品然后分卖给别人。大超市或商场0303品牌0202大买家0101话术1:价格优惠 we believe that we can offer you competitive advantage products to help you increase your sales in local market In the last few years many customers were very happy with our prices and quality,we are sure you will pleased with our products.话术2:质量保障及交货期 we are one of the few suppliers support refund money in case of bad quality or late delivery.代理商他们在中国帮别人采购产品然后拿提成。国外的 buying office老外在国内开的贸易公司01010202话术1:不抢走你的客户 Inorder to coopreate more safety we will sign a contract with you and make it clear that we will not contact any of your customers secertly.please donot worry about coopreating with us as our company business culture is with us your money in safe your business in safe话术2:小订单试一下 it is our honor to cooperate with you,we trust that your customers will fully like the quality of our products.we are ready to send you a sample to check our quality first.would you like to get a sample?04与老外谈生意注意事项你的客户来自哪里?欧美国家客户不要写那么长英语专业一些别太热情开门见山与我们合作有什么可能误会你的意思产品专业知识时间概念长东方国家客户回复速度慢英语简单一些喜欢热情幽默对人不对事让客户信任你DEAR/BORTHER方便能看懂时间概念非常一般05订单转化的好方法提问:刚认识海外买家说什么比较好?话术1:我们熟悉你当地市场 Hi Mr.,Nice day hot selling products for your market.it is our pleasure to offer you some of our (hot-selling)products for yourmarket.Trust you like them.our market analysis sure these products will be hot sale in your market.Would you like to try any of them?fully hope we have a chance to serve you.yours 你的签名话术2:我们产品性价比高 Hi Mr.,Nice day competitive advantage products to help you increase your sales.In the last 10 years almost of our customers very happy with our quality,we are sure you will pleased with our products,Lets try withsmall order,is it ok?we believe that we can offer you competitive advantage products to help you increase your sales in local market.yours 你的签名话术3:为你提供不一样的服务 Hi Mr.,Nice day for sure we are not the same.You should discovered that almost of the Chinese suppliers says “we have very highquality,we have very cheap price“that is right?we know maybe we are not the cheapest price in china,also may be we are not the highest quality in china,but we trust we are your right choice supplier in china for.Business.please see attachments andyou will know more about us.yours 你的签名然后然后你们你们公司公司必有必有这种这种图片图片话术4:质量保障 Hi Mr.Wish you good day.fully hope we can have along term co-operation with you.our company is one of the few suppliers at whom can offer refund money in case of bad quality.we trust you will be happy with our services.would you like to give us a chance to show you more advantages about our company?yours 你的签名双赢意识THANKS
北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列摘要12022 年下半年以来,中国出口增速开始下滑,外贸压力较大。外贸依赖度较高的深圳和香港也面临重重挑战。2023 年 1-2 月深圳出口同比仅增长 0.4%,进口下降 19.2%;香港整体出口同比下降 25.4%,进口同比下降 18.9%。在全球局势紧张、外需总体疲弱以及发达国家供应链排华的新形势下,推进深圳和香港贸易纵深合作,包括贸易基础设施、贸易新业态、贸易结算和监管等方面的共建共商共管,不仅有利于挖掘两地自身增长新动能,而且对稳定全国外贸形势意义重大。北大汇丰智库和前海中英研究院联合发布本报告,从贸贸易易往往来来规规模模及及产产品品结结构构、贸贸易易基基础础设设施施共共建建、贸贸易易新新业业态态合合作作、贸贸易易结结算算人人民民币币使使用用情情况况以以及及贸贸易易监监管管互互联联互互助助等五个方面梳理深港合作的进展,据此提出全球贸易新形势下推进深港贸易合作纵深发展的四个建议:一一是是强强化化深深港港口口岸岸基基础础设设施施共共建建互互联联、数数据据共共享享、信信息息互互认认、规规则则衔衔接接,打造数字化、智能化的陆海空物流集散中转枢纽。二二是是推推进进深深港港跨跨境境电电商商全全流流程程合合作作,共建涵盖制造企业,外贸企业,电商平台,信息、物流、支付、营销等专业服务类企业的优质跨境电商生态圈。三三是是携携手手稳稳固固欧欧美美亚亚市市场场,重重点点开开拓拓一一带带一一路路沿沿线线及及 R RC CE EP P 成成员员国国市市场场,发挥外贸桥头堡作用,巩固中国在区域供应链中的核心地位。四四是是化化危危为为机机,推推动动深深港港全全球球财财富富管管理理以以及及跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算更更上上新新台台阶阶。一、深港贸易合作进展北大汇丰智库经济组、前海中英研究院(撰稿人:岑维、王若林)成稿时间:2023 年 4 月 17 日联系人:程云(0755-26032270,)北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列11.贸易往来规模先升后降趋于稳定,贸易产品结构优化升级2 20 00 07 7-2 20 01 13 3 年年为为贸贸易易往往来来规规模模上上升升阶阶段段。深港进出口贸易总额12007 年已达5692 亿元,2008 年金融危机影响下有所下降,但 2010 年开始持续高速增长,到2013 年已增长至 11584 亿元,三年平均增长率高达 2 25 5%。与此同时,深港进出口贸易额对深圳贸易总额和香港贸易总额的贡献也达到了峰值,分别为 3 34 4%和 1 19 9%。深深港港之之间间贸贸易易的的繁繁荣荣得得益益于于中中国国加加入入 W WT TO O 后后在在全全球球供供应应链链中中参参与与度度的的提提升升。中国凭借强大的制造能力成为世界工厂,深圳制造业更是远近闻名,其规上制造业增加值占 GDP 的比重 2013 年为 3 38 8%2。以来来料料加加工工、进进料料加加工工为主的加工贸易成为深圳对外贸易的主要形式。而香港凭借其全球贸易及航运中心地位理所当然地成为深圳对外贸易的转口港,2013 年香港转口货值占其整体出口货值比例高达 98.5%。图图 1 1:深深港港往往来来贸贸易易额额及及其其占占比比数据来源:wind,北大汇丰智库2 20 01 13 3-2 20 01 17 7 年年为为贸贸易易往往来来规规模模下下降降阶阶段段。2013 年之后,深港进出口贸易额明显下降,到 2017 年已降至 6433 亿元,四年平均跌跌幅幅 1 14 4%;深港进出口贸易额对深圳贸易总额和香港贸易总额的贡献也持续下降,2017 年相比 2013 年降降幅幅均均在在 1 10 0个个百百分分点点左左右右。这这一一阶阶段段深深港港进进出出口口贸贸易易额额的的下下降降主主要要与与深深圳圳贸贸易易总总体体形形势势有有关关,深圳进出口总额在 2013-2016 年间三年平均跌幅约为 10%,二者走势高度一致。深1以深圳统计的对港出口和进口加总后按平均港元兑人民币汇率计算而得。2北大汇丰智库深港制造业合作的两条路径和四项举措。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议2圳进出口贸易出现大幅下滑,核核心心原原因因在在于于国国内内经经济济进进入入新新常常态态后后增增长长放放缓缓以以及及深深圳圳“腾腾笼笼换换鸟鸟”产产业业结结构构调调整整升升级级计计划划带带来来的的阵阵痛痛。2008 年金融危机之后各国都经历了较长的调整恢复期,外需相对疲弱,中国外贸增长速度比金融危机前明显放缓,2012 年只有 3%,2016 年降至-0.9%。深圳作为外贸大市受影响程度相对较高。再加上在广东省“腾笼换鸟”产业转移计划1指导下,深圳 2010 年出台深圳市城市总体规划(2010-2020),明确城市产业结构“以电子信息产业为主导”,要求“逐步置换低端产业,为高端产业释放空间”。一些扩产需求得不到满足或者产品附加值低的企业相继迁出,如橡胶塑料制品、金属制品、纺织服装等行业内企业。据统计,2013-2016 年间深圳每年迁移企业数量都在 2000 家以上。2016-2021 年局部迁移的重点制造业企业 60%以上迁往省外,以江苏居多。低附加值加工企业的迁出短期内对外贸影响较大。但长期来看有助于推动深港贸易结构的优化升级。2 20 02 21 1年年深深圳圳对对港港出出口口产产品品中中劳劳动动密密集集型型产产品品占占比比由由回回归归当当年年的的3 30 0.7 7%降降至至 2 2.6 6%,高高新新技技术术产产品品由由回回归归当当年年的的 1 11 1.6 6%提提升升至至 7 74 4.7 7%2。2 20 01 17 7年年后后为为贸贸易易往往来来规规模模平平稳稳阶阶段段。2017年后深港贸易往来进入相对平稳期,进出口贸易总额基本在 6000 亿元以上,2021 年达到 7220 亿元。深圳和香港各自的贸易额稳步增长,导致深港进出口贸易额对深圳、香港贸易的贡献持续缓慢下降。2021 年深港进出口贸易额占深圳进出口总额和香港进出口总额的比例分别为20.4%和 8.5%。深深港港进进出出口口贸贸易易额额对对深深圳圳和和香香港港各各自自贸贸易易总总额额贡贡献献的的下下降降则则主主要要与与深深圳圳和和香香港港贸贸易易伙伙伴伴逐逐渐渐多多元元化化有有关关,而而这这主主要要受受益益于于中中国国自自贸贸区区改改革革创创新新。2008年金融危机过后,新一轮区域经济一体化掀起热潮,非关税壁垒的削减以及国际贸易新规则构建成为重点关注领域。由美国主导推进的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)分别于 2010 年和 2013 年正式发起,致力于推动区域贸易自由化。1广东省委书记汪洋在 2008 年 5 月 29 日以中共广东省委、广东省人民政府关于推进产业转移和劳动力转移的决定文件形式正式提出;2010 年 6 月,广东省委政府出台关于加快经济发展方式转变的若干意见,提出要加快落后行业淘汰速度。2013 年 1 月 17 日,中共中央政治局委员、广东省委书记胡春华表示,广东既要抓“腾笼换鸟”,又要推动“凤凰涅槃”,加快转型升级。2深圳商报采访深圳海关数据,https:/ 2 2:内内地地与与香香港港往往来来贸贸易易额额及及占占比比数据来源:wind,北大汇丰智库在此背景下,中国启动自贸区制度创新试点,从 2013 年起先后在上海、广东、天津、福建等设立自由贸易试验区,至 2020 年 9 月自贸区数量已达 21 个。自贸区的设立使得内地省市得以在更大程度上参与全球贸易,开拓更多贸易伙伴,同时也扩大了香港与内地省市的联系,改变了以往仅靠深圳作为世界窗口的局面。2014 年起深圳与美国、欧盟、东南亚的贸易占比提升;香港与内地省市的贸易往来也日益频繁,与内地贸易占其贸易总额的比例提升至 50%以上。除此之外,深圳保税物流园区的发展、海陆空港基础设施的不断完善也在一定程度上助推了深圳贸易的多元化。保税物流园区使得“境内关外”得以实现,原先许多通过“香港一日游”实现出口退税、简单加工、修理修配的产品在保税区内就可以实现。海陆空港基础设施的完善使得深圳远洋运输及装卸能力提升,降低了对香港主要港口的依赖。深圳港集装箱吞吐量 2013 年首次超越香港,2022 年已超 3000 万标准箱,位居全球第四。深圳机场及港口货物吞吐量 2017-2021 年间分别提升了 35%和 14%。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议4图图 3 3:中中国国自自贸贸区区设设立立时时间间及及数数量量数据来源:头条,北大汇丰智库2.贸易基础设施建设全面铺开,共建共用及联通程度日益提升截截至至目目前前,深深港港之之间间一一级级口口岸岸共共 1 15 5 个个,包包括括 7 7 个个公公路路口口岸岸,1 1 个个铁铁路路口口岸岸 1 1个个,6 6 个个水水运运口口岸岸,1 1 个个航航空空口口岸岸。深港口岸经济带建设已被列入国家、广东省、深圳市重要工作内容,2021 年 4 月,深圳市第七次党代会明确提出“高水平规划建设深港口岸经济带,形成空间统筹、结构优化、错位协同的口岸经济发展格局”。2022 年 7 月,香港特区立法会全票通过“共建深港口岸经济带”议案。该议案就促请香港特区政府采取积极措施对接深圳、合力发展口岸经济带提出了 6 项建议。2022 年 12 月,深圳发布深圳市口岸建设“十四五”规划。口岸基础设施的完善升级对于加速深港融合意义重大。公公路路口口岸岸方方面面,皇岗口岸于 2 20 02 20 0 年年 6 6 月月开始重建,重建后定位为纯旅检口岸,24 小时通关;莲塘口岸于 2020 年 8 月正式开通,先行启用货检功能;深圳湾口岸于 2020 年 12 月正式实施货检 24 小时通关。深圳跨境货运“东进东出、西进西出”通关格局正逐渐形成。2 20 02 21 1 年年 2 2 月月,经深港两地协商,正式调整皇岗和文锦渡口岸的货检功能,未来东部跨境货运车辆统一由莲塘口岸出入境,西部跨境货运车辆统一由深圳湾口岸出入境,中部的福田、皇岗、罗湖、文锦渡口岸主要发挥旅北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列5检功能,以解决跨境货运与市内交通的矛盾,提高跨境运输效率。据深圳口岸办公室统计,2023 年 1 月深圳口岸出入境车辆日均 6200 辆,虽然较 2021 年及以前有较大差距,但相对于 2022 年年初已成恢复态势。随着疫情影响逐渐消散以及莲塘口岸 24 小时通关的研究推进,未来深港口岸跨境人员、货物通关便利度将明显提升。图图 4 4:深深港港口口岸岸分分布布数据来源:北大汇丰智库图图 5 5:深深圳圳口口岸岸出出入入境境车车辆辆统统计计数据来源:深圳市口岸办公室,北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议6水水运运口口岸岸方方面面,深圳现有大亚湾、盐田、蛇口、赤湾、妈湾、大铲湾等东、西共 6 个口岸,港口集装箱吞吐量不断提升,2022 年达到 3004 万标准箱,成为全球第 4 个年吞吐量突破 3000 万标箱的港口。即使在疫情期间,各海港口岸吞吐量仍保持增长,缓解了深港跨境公路运输因疫情防控受阻的压力。早在 2 20 01 18 8 年年深圳市人民政府关于促进深圳港加快发展的若干意见中深圳就提出“与与香香港港港港共共建建国国际际航航运运中中心心”的发展目标,开展“深深港港自自贸贸通通”试点,形成前海蛇口自贸片区与香港间的直通物流大通道;探探索索建建设设深深港港组组合合港港,实现两地港口物流服务一体化。同时,进一步强化深圳港与粤港澳大湾区及周边港口的业务联系,逐步推进大湾区港口通关一体化。2 20 02 20 0 年年 1 11 1 月月深圳建设交通强国城市范例发展策略及近期行动计划发布,表示将大力推动组合港通关模式,建设“高水平国际中转贸易港”。2 20 02 21 1 年年 9 9 月月全面深化前海深港现代化服务业合作区改革开放方案进一步强调“联动建设国际贸易组合港,实施陆海空多式联运、枢纽联动”。截至 2 20 02 22 2 年年 1 11 1 月月,深圳港已与东莞、惠州、佛山、中山、珠海、肇庆、云浮、广州、清远等 9 个地市累计开通了 26 个组合港点位。“粤港澳大湾区组合港”项目已覆盖大湾区近 90%城市,进出口吞吐量超过 29 万标箱。大湾区港口的互联互通对于湾区城市外贸降本提效以及深圳、香港国际航运中心地位的提升都将发挥重要作用。铁铁路路口口岸岸方方面面,深港现有西九龙口岸,经广深港高铁与福田、深圳北、广州南相连。2022 年 12 月香港跨越 2030 年的铁路及主要干道策略性研究面向公众开展咨询活动。根据该方案,港港深深西西部部铁铁路路(洪水桥至前海)将打通,洪水桥站透过现有和规划中的铁路项目可延伸至香港其他地区。此举意味着深港西部走廊跨界交通网络将进一步贯通,向向北北延伸至深圳宝安国际机场,覆盖整个“100 公里黄金内湾”,未来随着深中通道建成将向向西西延展至珠江西口岸的广州南沙、中山、珠海、澳门;向向南南延伸至香港国际机场与维港都会区,向向东东联通北部都会区。深港乃至整个粤港澳大湾区的联通程度将提升至新高度,这对于湾区内、“一带一路”沿线以及全球的货物流通和贸易往来的影响都是巨大的。香港物流及运输局表示将在 2023 年四季度构建香港未来主要运输基建发展蓝图,并适时推展所需要的运输基建项目。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列7图图 6 6:扩扩区区后后的的前前海海及及深深中中通通道道数据来源:楼盘网,北大汇丰智库图图 7 7:香香港港跨跨越越 2 20 03 30 0 年年的的铁铁路路及及主主要要干干道道策策略略性性研研究究线线路路规规划划图图数据来源:香港运输及物流局,北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议8机机场场口口岸岸方方面面,2020 年 7 月民航局关于支持粤港澳大湾区民航协同发展的实施意见提出到 2025 年要基本建成粤港澳大湾区世界级机场群,构构建建以以香香港港、广广州州、深深圳圳国国际际航航空空枢枢纽纽多多核核驱驱动动,澳澳门门、珠珠海海等等机机场场多多点点联联动动的的区区域域协协调调发发展展新新格格局局。在此指导下,深圳机场基础设施建设加快进程。2022 年 2 月,深圳市综合交通“十四五”规划提出,将加快启动机场北货运区、东北货运区的规划建设,提升机场货运能力,扩容升级邮政快递航空基础设施,打造跨境快邮集散中心。2022 年深圳机场货邮吞吐量已达到 151 万吨。2023 年 2 月,深圳机场货运通航城市增加至 57 个,其中国际及地区货运通航城市达到 35 个。在香港机场国际货运枢纽龙头带动作用下,深圳机场货运枢纽功能将不断加强,深深港港合合作作拓拓展展国国际际航航线线的模式有望进一步深化,从而推进大湾区航空物流高端化发展。图图 8 8:深深圳圳机机场场国国际际货货运运网网络络数据来源:深圳机场,北大汇丰智库3.贸易新业态合作加速发展,跨境电商迎来重要机遇期2 20 01 13 3 年中国启动跨境电商城市试点政策,深圳名列其中;2 20 01 15 5 年中国启动跨境电子商务综合试验区,深圳于 2 20 01 16 6 年初作为第二批试验区入选。内地跨境电商的发展也使香港嗅到了商机。2 20 01 15 5 年年 7 7 月月,由 AME 爱琪荟集团牵头,超过五十位出色企业家组成的“天使尊尚会”在香港启动,走上以跨境电商连接中外的商业模式,通过跨境电商大力拓展内地市场。2 20 01 16 6 年年 4 4 月月,AME 爱琪荟集团主办了“第北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列9一届互联网 高峰论坛”,香港电商联会、广东省电子商务协会都参与其中,共商跨境电商发展蓝图。疫情的爆发和持续使得线下消费受阻,再加上海外生产受疫情拖累明显,以大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等数字技术加持的跨境电商迎来重要发展机遇期,各级政府和各类企业相继加快布局。图图 9 9:深深港港跨跨境境电电商商领领域域合合作作历历程程数据来源:北大汇丰智库2 20 02 20 0 年年 1 10 0 月月,深圳发布关于推动电子商务加快发展的若干措施,提出要完善跨境电商通关节点、创新跨境电商监管和服务、降低跨境电商企业仓储成本,充分发挥跨境电商作为外贸发展新引擎的作用。2 20 02 22 2 年年,深圳先后制定出台深圳市推动跨境电子商务高质量发展行动方案(2022-2025)深圳市 2022 年冲刺跨境电商发展目标工作措施以及深圳市国际化网络直播电商服务平台建设工作方案深圳市海外仓公共信息服务平台建设方案深圳市跨境电商零售出口企业阳光化申报试点工作方案,努力构建“1 1 3 N”的跨境电商政策体系1。当年 1 12 2 月月 1 18 8 日日,深圳启动跨境贸易大数据平台及六大集聚区2(跨境电商集聚1深圳特区报,“跨境电商规模质量双一流”,2021 年 1 月 28 日。2跨境贸易大数据平台依托国际贸易“单一窗口”,建立海关、税务、外汇、海事、边检、市监、交通、口岸北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议10区为其中之一),构建跨境贸易联盟区块链网络,培育跨境电商完整产业链和生态圈。据深圳市商务局统计,2 20 02 22 2 年年深深圳圳跨跨境境电电商商进进出出口口规规模模预预计计超超 1 18 80 00 0 亿亿元元,同同比比增增长长 1 13 30 00 0 亿亿元元,占占全全市市进进出出口口贸贸易易总总额额的的 4 4.9 9%,占占全全国国跨跨境境电电商商进进出出口口贸贸易易的的8 8.5 5%,继续领先其他城市。2022 年商务部发布的“2021 年跨境电子商务综合试验区建设评估”结果显示,中国(深圳)跨境电子商务综合试验区综合排名位列第一档。深圳企业占亚马逊中国卖家比重在 30%以上,远高于国内其他城市。深圳海外仓的规模迅猛增长,2022 年全市 4 家企业 7 个海外仓被省商务厅评选为第三批省级公共海外仓,全省 22 个省级公共海外仓中 18 个由深圳企业建设运营。内地支持跨境电商的政策以及跨境电商的迅速发展为香港带来巨大的商机。一方面香港毗邻内地,大部分商品可以免税进口,成为跨境电商零售进口商品进入内地前仓储的理想地点;再加上海外仓等新业态的发展,许多广广东东企企业业选选择择在在香香港港建建立立海海外外仓仓,作作为为进进口口集集货货和和出出口口发发货货的的集集结结地地。另一方面香港是全球的金融、品牌及授权中心,内地尤其是广东跨境电商企业倾向于选择香港作为品牌及资金管理中心。香港跨境电子商务也迎来蓬勃发展,许多香香港港零零售售业业开开始始加加大大对对跨跨境境电电商商 B B2 2B B 以以及及实实体体店店在在大大陆陆的的投投入入,相关的合作交流也不断深化。2 20 01 19 9 年年 9 9 月月、2 20 02 20 0 年年 1 10 0 月月,香港贸易发展局经贸研究团队先后访问广东省南方电子商务创新中心与天猫国际团队,了解内地跨境电商发展情况,探讨双方合作机会。2 20 02 22 2 年年 7 7 月月,深圳市商务局联合香港投资推广署举办 2022 中国(深圳、香港)加拿大(多伦多)跨境电商发展交流会,以推动深圳、香港和多伦多三地跨境电商领域相关企业和机构间加强合作,助力电商企业积极拓展北美市场。2 20 02 22 2 年年 1 10 0 月月,中国(深圳、香港)俄罗斯(莫斯科)跨境电商发展交流会举办,立足“一带一路”建设,积极探索深圳、香港与俄罗斯之间的互联互通、互促发展的新模式。2 20 02 22 2 年年 1 12 2 月月,深港澳三地首次联合举办粤港澳服务贸易展览会暨中等部门的数据共享及交叉验证机制,同时链接进出口企业、机场、港口等跨境贸易重要参与方,报关行、船代、理货等供应链服务商,以及银行、保险等金融机构,共同构建跨境贸易联盟区块链网络,面向企业、地方政府、监管单位提供跨境贸易大数据服务,推动形成跨境贸易服务生态系统。跨境电商集聚区将在现有基础上加大跨境电商企业招商引资力度,加强跨境电商政策措施配套,推动跨境电商上下游企业集聚前海,培育跨境电商完整产业链和生态圈。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列11国(深圳)跨境电商展览会。2 20 02 23 3 年年 2 2 月月,内地第三方支付中心易宝支付与香港特区政府投资推广署开展研讨会,易宝支付表示将进一步深入探索支付场景,拓展跨境电商新业态和 Web3 新领域。4.贸易结算便利化程度提升,人民币连续三年成为深港间第一大跨境结算货币图图 1 10 0:全全国国跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算发发展展历历程程数据来源:北大汇丰智库2008 年金融危机后,美元、欧元等主要国际结算货币汇率大幅波动,再加上结算环节过多、流程复杂,以人民币作为贸易结算货币的重要性日益显现。2009年,内地启动跨境贸易人民币结算试点,包括深圳在内的 5 个城市可以与香港开展跨境贸易人民币结算。2010 年,中国人民银行与香港金管局签署人民币业务清算协议,取消香港银行对金融机构开设人民币账户与提供各类服务的限制,极大地刺激了香港与内地之间的跨境人民币贸易。当年香港与内地跨境人民币贸易结算额达到 3692 亿元,其中广东占比超过 40%。2011 年,跨境贸易人民币结算境内地域范围扩大至全国,境外地域范围扩展至全球。随后,人民银行牵头发布一系政策,对跨境贸易人民币结算给予更多鼓励支持。中国人民银行统计显示,2 20 01 10 0北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议122 20 02 22 2 年年,跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算规规模模从从 5 50 06 63 3 亿亿元元快快速速上上升升至至 1 10 0.5 51 1 万万亿亿元元,增增长长近近 2 20 0 倍倍。同同期期,跨跨境境直直接接投投资资人人民民币币结结算算规规模模从从 2 28 80 0 亿亿元元上上升升至至 6 6.7 76 6 万万亿亿元元,增增长长近近 2 24 40 0 倍倍。图图 1 11 1:全全国国跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算规规模模数据来源:中国人民银行,北大汇丰智库在央行统一指导下,深深圳圳也也推推出出一一系系列列促促进进跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算相相关关政政策策,与与香香港港的的合合作作也也不不断断深深化化。早在 1 19 99 98 8 年年,香港就与深圳开启了单向港元支票联合结算;2 20 00 02 2 年年,港元 RTGS1系统与深圳联网;2 20 01 17 7 年年,香港至广东省的人民币跨境电子账单服务启动,深港人民币跨境电子账单服务实现双向流通。2 20 01 18 8 年年 1 10 0 月月,香港金管局推动成立“贸易联动”,与中国人民银行辖下的贸易金融区块链平台连接,服务于进出口商的跨境贸易融资。2 20 01 19 9 年年 1 11 1 月月,人民银行深圳市中心支行按照总行统一部署,在广东自贸区前海蛇口片区率先开展更高水平贸易投资人民币结算便利化试点,并于 2 20 02 20 0 年年 6 6 月月复制推广至深圳全市。此举大幅提高诚信企业开展跨境人民币业务的便利性,平均每笔业务用时由 30-40 分钟缩短至 10 分钟。2 20 02 21 1 年年 2 2 月月,香港金管局、泰国中央银行、阿联酋中央银行及中国人民银行数字货币研究所宣布联合发起多边央行数字“货币桥”研究项目,探索央行数字货币在跨境支付中的应用。2 20 02 22 2 年年 1 10 0 月月,香港金管局公布“货币桥”实行成果,来自1香港的即时支付结算系统(Real Time Gross Settlement:RTGS),可进行港元、美元、欧元及人民币的银行同业资金转拨。这些支付系统由香港银行同业结算有限公司运作,提供各种银行同业结算及交收服务。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列13四地的 20 家商业银行基于“货币桥”平台为其客户完成以跨境贸易为主的多场景支付结算业务。在此次试点测试中,中国内地 5 家试点银行在深圳的分支机构均组织各自企业客户参与到首批试点测试工作中。据悉,在中国内地参与此次试点测试的所有交易中,来来自自深深圳圳地地区区企企业业的的交交易易量量占占比比达达三三分分之之一一,成成为为业业务务场场景景最最丰丰富富、交交易易发发生生量量最最多多的的地地区区。图图 1 12 2:深深港港人人民民币币支支付付结结算算合合作作历历程程数据来源:香港金管局,北大汇丰智库2 20 02 23 3 年年 2 2 月月,人民银行等四部门和广东省人民政府联合印发关于金融支持前海深港现代服务业合作区全面深化改革开放的意见,围绕提升深港金融合作水平,提出全面提升跨境贸易投资便利化水平,实施更便利的货物贸易资金结算措施,探索跨境支付清算新机制。中国人民银行深圳市中心支行数据显示,2022年,深圳市人民币跨境收付规模达 3.2 万亿元,同比增长 4.8%,收付规模稳居全国第三。深深圳圳与与香香港港间间人人民民币币跨跨境境收收付付额额达达 2 2.6 6 万万亿亿元元,占占同同口口径径本本外外币币跨跨境境收收北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议14付付额额的的 5 51 1.3 3%,人人民民币币连连续续三三年年成成为为深深港港间间第第一一大大跨跨境境结结算算货货币币。香港金管局数据显示,2022 年香港结算所人民币结算量达 384.3 万亿元;人民币 RTGS 系统平均每日交易额创出 1.5 万亿元的历史新高。图图 1 13 3:深深圳圳人人民民币币跨跨境境收收付付金金额额数据来源:中国人民银行深圳市中心支行,北大汇丰智库图图 1 14 4:香香港港结结算算所所人人民民币币结结算算量量注:期内总数由香港银行同业结算有限公司提供。除了某些电子结算系统项目以外,这些数字只计算收款或付款一方的成交量数据来源:香港金管局,北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列15除除规规模模扩扩大大之之外外,跨跨境境贸贸易易人人民民币币结结算算的的支支付付场场景景也也不不断断延延伸伸,从个人支付到一般贸易往来支付再到大宗商品计价支付。2022 年 7 月 5 日,大宗商品交易平台前海联合交易中心首笔跨境人民币业务成功落地。该笔业务依托人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)标准收发器完成跨境人民币资金清算,资金当日到账。2023 年 2月 23 日,中国人民银行、银保监会、证监会、外汇局、广东省人民政府联合发布金融支持横琴粤澳深度合作区和前海深港现代服务业合作区建设意见,支支持持香香港港交交易易所所前前海海联联合合交交易易中中心心开开展展大大宗宗商商品品跨跨境境现现货货交交易易人人民民币币计计价价结结算算业业务务。依法合规拓展香港交易所前海联合交易中心的业务及功能,有序丰富交易品种,增强大宗商品定价能力。5.贸易监管模式不断创新,数据互联、单证互认、监管互助带动通关效率提升一一是是简简化化深深港港进进出出境境监监管管手手续续。2020 年 10 月起,深圳经济特区前海蛇口自由贸易试验片区条例开始施行,推行数字化海关监管,简化货物进出境监管手续,推行海关特殊监管区域货物便利通关模式。2022 年 9 月,海关总署支持前海深港现代服务业合作区全面深化改革开放若干措施发布。在规则衔接方面,提出试点深港“一单两报”,简化企业申报手续。二二是是推推进进深深港港监监管管规规则则和和检检测测标标准准衔衔接接。2021 年 9 月,全面深化前海深港现代化服务业合作区改革开放方案新闻发布会上,深圳海关提出推进检验检疫规则衔接和标准互认,加强深港两地海关信息互通、执法互助、结果互认,推动实现深港跨境贸易便利畅通。2022 年 9 月,海关总署支持前海深港现代服务业合作区全面深化改革开放若干措施中提出支持与香港特区政府共商共建工作沟通机制,推进两地检验监管规则和检测标准衔接,试点“一次检测、一次认证、一体通行”;率先试点自港进口的部分法检商品检验结果采信,试点深港酒类“两地一检”模式等。三三是是推推进进深深港港间间企企业业作作业业与与海海关关通通关关的的高高效效协协同同,降降低低企企业业成成本本,提提高高通通关关效效率率。2 20 01 18 8 年年,深深圳圳海海关关推推出出“前前海海离离港港空空运运服服务务中中心心”,打造广深港“航空货北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议16运登机口”,以航空货运一体化为目标,叠加中转分拨集拼、“全球中心仓”、口岸非侵入式查验等措施,使企业在海关特殊监管区域内即可打包完成一系列进出口服务功能,送抵香港、深圳、广州三大机场后直接“登机”出境,形成以前海为中心的“全球揽货前海集聚机场直飞”进出口贸易生态圈。这一模式为企业节省约 30%的物流成本,截至 2023 年 2 月,已有 918.07 亿元货物在前海离港空运服务中心集拼分拨。2 20 02 20 0 年年,由由深深圳圳海海关关倡倡导导的的“粤粤港港澳澳大大湾湾区区组组合合港港”项项目目正正式式启启动动,旨在把珠江东西两岸的深圳、广州、香港三个国际枢纽港口以及内河航运港口打通,通过优化海关监管流程、共享港口代码、依托区块链和物联网等技术开展全程监管,实现货物在各港口间一次报关一次放行,为企业提高通关效率、降低通关成本。据深圳海关统计,该模式每年可为企业节省 2400 万元报关成本,为班轮公司减少用箱成本超 4500 万元。同时,货物平均堆存期由 5-7 天缩短至 2 天以内。2023 年两会期间,深港代表提议打造“深圳盐田-香港葵青”组合港,进一步丰富湾区组合港项目实践,实现国际航运枢纽互联互通,推动大湾区世界级港口群的加速成形。2 20 02 22 2 年年以以来来,深深圳圳海海关关陆陆续续在在海海、空空港港口口推推出出“海海空空港港畅畅流流计计划划”系系列列改改革革,建立“前置理货区”,通过“提前报关、智能分流、顺势查验、嵌入监管”,压缩货物在港区停留时间,实现海空港企业作业和海关通关监管的高效协同,全面优化海关监管模式。改革落地后,海关查验整体耗时缩短 95%,货物周转效能提升 45%,出口货物库内停留时间缩短 30%,释放场站空间1600 平方米。二、全球贸易新形势下推进深港贸易合作纵深发展的相关建议2018 年是中国外贸出口一个重要的分水岭,在此之前,中国外贸出口年均增速在 8.6%左右,2018 年当年降至 7.1%,随着中美关税实施范围和税率进一步提升,2019 年中国出口增速进一步收窄至 5%。2020-2022 年疫情期间,中国由于疫情防控有力,外贸出口逆势增长。但自 2022 年下半年以来,中国出口增速开始下滑,12 月人民币出口金额当月同比增速降至-0.5%,较年初的 20.8%下降了 21.3 个百分点。一方面俄乌冲突愈演愈烈加剧了全球紧张局势,另一方面欧美主要国家为抑制通胀高企采取的加息政策导致需求收缩,全球经济衰退风险下外需持续疲弱。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列17再加上欧美国家供应链排华限华的一系列举措,中国外贸压力空前。主要外贸城市深圳和香港也面临重重挑战。2023 年 1-2 月深圳出口同比仅增长 0.4%,进口下降 19.2%;香港整体出口同比下降 25.4%,进口同比下降 18.9%。在此背景下,推进深圳和香港贸易纵深合作,不仅有利于挖掘两地自身增长新动能,而且对稳定全国外贸形势意义重大。本文认为可从以下四个方面着手:1.强化深港口岸基础设施共建互联互通强强化化深深港港口口岸岸基基础础设设施施共共建建互互联联、数数据据共共享享、信信息息互互认认、规规则则衔衔接接,打打造造数数字字化化、智智能能化化的的陆陆海海空空物物流流集集散散中中转转枢枢纽纽。按照国家“十四五”口岸发展规划、深圳“高水平规划建设深港口岸经济带”和香港“共建深港口岸经济带”的指示,全力实施深港陆海空口岸改造升级、规划新增、功能调整和数字化转型。一一是是联联合合推推进进皇皇岗岗口口岸岸和和沙沙头头角角口口岸岸重重建建、罗罗湖湖口口岸岸和和文文锦锦渡渡口口岸岸改改造造升升级级。皇岗口岸按照“一地两检”模式妥善安排深港联合办公相关场地布局与管理协调方案,沙头角口岸按照“通关 旅游 消费 交通枢纽”四大功能定位预留好对接深港两岸现有及规划中的特色旅游区、大型商圈、轨道交通的空间,灵活安排通关能力。罗湖口岸和文锦渡口岸按照“纯旅检”功能定位全面升级口岸环境、设施和通关模式,加快口岸周边片区改造,依托释放的土地空间打造深港专业服务业跨境经营区、人才集聚区和都市核心商圈。二二是是共共同同商商议议新新增增口口岸岸和和跨跨境境直直升升机机航航点点布布局局,满满足足当当前前及及未未来来深深港港人人员员旅旅游游及及商商务务便便捷捷出出行行需需求求。2023 年 2 月,深港直升机跨境飞行复航,预计未来还将开辟多条航线,方便两地人员、物资及经贸往来。三三是是整整合合深深港港乃乃至至大大湾湾区区陆陆海海空空港港资资源源,实实现现错错位位布布局局、功功能能互互补补。做好陆陆路路口口岸岸“东东进进东东出出、西西进进西西出出”货运格局形成后深圳湾口岸及莲塘口岸附近深港货运能力的支持保障工作,重点推进港深西部铁路深港共商共建。试点“深深圳圳盐盐田田-香香港港葵葵青青”组组合合港港,推广粤港澳大湾区组合港项目“一次报关、一次查验、一次放行”的湾区一港通模式,加快深圳和香港以及湾区港口间要素流通、规则衔接和服务一体化,形成良性竞合,扩大发展能级。以粤港澳大湾区机场群前海服务中心为依托,整合广、深、港、澳机场空运资源,打造“全全国国揽揽货货前前海海集集拼拼机机场场直直北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议18飞飞”的进出口贸易生态圈,构建世界级航空物流集散中转枢纽,带动深、港乃至全国高附加值货物贸易发展。四四是是升升级级深深港港口口岸岸信信息息化化设设备备、搭搭建建智智慧慧云云平平台台、跟跟踪踪陆陆海海空空物物流流大大数数据据、实实时时共共享享货货物物状状态态和和通通关关进进度度,推推动动贸贸易易便便利利化化。2.推进深港跨境电商全流程合作推推进进深深港港跨跨境境电电商商全全流流程程合合作作,共共建建涵涵盖盖制制造造企企业业,外外贸贸企企业业,电电商商平平台台,信信息息、物物流流、支支付付、营营销销等等专专业业服服务务类类企企业业的的优优质质跨跨境境电电商商生生态态圈圈。根据深圳市关于推动电子商务加快发展的若干措施和深圳市推动跨境电子商务高质量发展行动方案(2022-2025)部署,深圳将在发展大型电子商务平台、推广电子商务应用、创新电子商务监管服务等方面持续深耕,香港可主动对接,与深圳开展跨境电商全流程合作。具体而言,一一是是在在培培育育发发展展大大型型跨跨境境电电商商平平台台方方面面,发挥香港“集资中心”和“全球买全球卖”交易中心优势,联合深圳大力培育本土综合类、垂直类跨境电商平台;发挥香港“总部经济”优势,积极引进国际性大型综合电商平台在深、港两地设立总部或供应链管理中心,如东南亚大型电商平台 Shopee 在深圳、香港均设立办公室,作为国货出海东南亚的重要通道。二二是是在在推推广广跨跨境境电电子子商商务务应应用用方方面面,支持深港两地制造业企业、外贸企业和批发零售企业开展跨境电商业务,通过接入第三方平台或者建设独立站等方式直接面向海外市场;依托深圳互联网信息技术和交通物流优势、香港品牌营销和知识产权法律体系优势,加快各类信息技术、物流服务、跨境支付、营销推广、售后服务、财税合规、知识产权、人才培训等专业服务企业在跨境电商产业园区聚集,为跨境电商企业提供专业 SaaS1服务,形成完整的跨境电商产业生态圈;联合推进跨境电商海外仓在主要市场的建设运营,提高外贸物流效率及退换货售后服务质量,形成跨境电商一般进出口(代码:9610,下同)、B2B 出口(9710)、出口海外仓(9810)和网购保税进口(1210)等多项业务类型齐头并进的良好局面。三三是是在在创创新新跨跨境境电电子子商商务务监监管管服服务务方方面面,加强深港两地跨境电商企业信息共享,对诚信和优质企业简化进出口认证报关手续,提升通关便利度;发挥深港金融优势,支持银行等各类金融机构拓展多元化跨境电商贸易融资方式,如运费、存货、仓单、订单融1Software as a Service,软件运营服务。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库专题报告系列19资等,满足企业个性化信贷需求;支持更多符合条件银行为跨境电商企业提供高效、低成本的跨境资金结算服务;依托深港高校资源和职业教育资源1加强跨境电商专业人才和紧缺人才引进与培育;联合举办国际跨境电商交流会和展览会,助力企业拓展海外市场。3.携手稳固欧美亚市场,重点开拓一带一路沿线及 RCEP 成员国市场携携手手稳稳固固欧欧美美亚亚市市场场,重重点点开开拓拓一一带带一一路路沿沿线线及及 R RC CE EP P 成成员员国国市市场场,发发挥挥外外贸贸桥桥头头堡堡作作用用,巩巩固固中中国国在在区区域域供供应应链链中中的的核核心心地地位位。在深圳和香港的贸易伙伴中,欧盟各国、美国、韩国、日本、台湾等长期以来都占据重要的份额,与东南亚各国的贸易往来则在近年来明显提升。尽管欧美国家近年来对中国采取了较为严格的外贸限制措施,但在短期内完全脱钩是不现实的。因此对深港而言,一方面要继续稳固欧美亚市场,另一方面要把开拓一带一路沿线及 RCEP 成员国市场作为重中之重,把握东南亚经济起飞契机,巩固中国在区域供应链中的核心地位。具体而言,一一是是主主动动顺顺应应全全球球产产业业链链转转移移趋趋势势,将部分资金密集型或劳动密集型的加工组装环节转移至一带一路沿线国家,深港则保留关键零部件制造生产、技术研发、供应链管理、品牌营销、售后服务等核心环节,强化供应链联系紧密度,从而事实上增加深港与一带一路沿线国家的货物贸易和服务贸易往来规模。二二是是充充分分发发挥挥深深圳圳 R RC CE EP P 服服务务中中心心作作用用,帮助深港企业尽快熟悉 RCEP 成员国间关税减让、原产地累计规则以及贸易投资便利措施,助力深港优势产业、优势产品和服务对外输出,包括金融科技产品和服务、电信技术标准和服务、专业服务等。可鼓励深港企业联合投资成员国,通过在成员国当地设立的工厂、企业、办事处等扩大该成员国与深港的贸易往来。三三是是利利用用深深港港四四通通八八达达的的陆陆海海空空物物流流网网络络和和数数字字化化、智智能能化化港港口口设设施施,大力发展面向 RCEP 成员国的中转集拼分拨业务,支持深港供应链服务企业承接跨国公司国际分拨中心业务,提高深圳和香港中转港地位。四四是是联联合合深深圳圳市市商商务务局局、香香港港投投资资推推广广署署和和相相关关行行业业协协会会,共同举办面向 RCEP 成员国12023 年 3 月 17 日,深圳职业技术学院和香港职业训练局合作共建的粤港澳大湾区特色职业教育园区开园。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库新时期深港贸易合作现状及未来纵深发展建议20和一带一路沿线国家的进出口贸易博览会、重点产业高端论坛和行业交流会,挖掘潜在合作机会。4.化危为机,推动深港全球财富管理以及跨境贸易人民币结算更上新台阶硅谷银行破产引发的银行业危机、瑞信银行债券被瑞士政府注销引发的信用崩塌加剧了全球对欧美财富安全的质疑以及资金避险情绪的上升,人民币资产和中国金融体系受到更多国家和资金关注。环球时报采访中资银行和证券公司多名香港金融业人士表示,近期香港银行的非本地居民开户的需求增长明显1。人民币使用范围持续扩大,俄罗斯外汇储备中人民币占比超过欧元,巴西与中国达成双边本币结算协议,沙特国家银行与中国进出口银行落成首笔人民币贷款合作,法国道达尔能源与中国海油完成首单人民币结算进口 LNG(液化天然气)交易。未来中国对全球财富吸引力的增加以及跨境人民币结算规模和场景的扩大是大势所趋,深圳和香港必然要抢抓机遇,推动其全球财富管理业务和跨境人民币结算支付业务更上新台阶。一一是是完完善善境境外外资资金金开开户户便便利利度度、丰丰富富金金融融产产品品池池、提提高高财财富富管管理理专专业业性性,为为迎迎接接资资金金流流入入做做好好充充足足准准备备;在在此此过过程程中中需需注注意意深深港港错错位位竞竞争争和和和和互互补补合合作作,同同时时吸吸取取欧欧美美银银行行破破产产教教训训,做做足足风风险险防防控控防防止止恶恶意意挤挤兑兑。二二是是适适时时推推动动扩扩大大多多边边央央行行数数字字“货货币币桥桥”参参与与试试点点国国家家和和银银行行,提提高高人人民民币币在在国国际际贸贸易易结结算算、跨跨境境电电商商、供供应应链链金金融融、财财富富管管理理等等多多个个应应用用场场景景的的使使用用频频次次。【声明】本文版权为北大汇丰智库所有1近日如下消息频繁传播:“一个月内,超过 2400 亿美元的华人资产从美国和瑞士搬迁到香港和新加坡”“因为业务太繁忙,香港一家银行员工已经停止休假”。目前尚无官方证实,待 3 月数据出炉可进行验证。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库(The PHBS Think Tank)成立于 2020 年 7 月,旨在整合北京大学汇丰商学院各院属研究中心,统筹协调资源,重点从事有关宏观经济、国际贸易与投资、金融改革与发展、粤港澳大湾区可持续发展、城市与乡村发展、海上丝路沿线国家经济贸易与合作等领域的实证分析与政策研究,打造专业化、国际化的新型智库平台。北大汇丰智库由北京大学汇丰商学院创院院长海闻教授兼任主任,智库副主任为王鹏飞、巴曙松、任颋、魏炜。北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库北大汇丰智库
免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。1 证券研究报告 可选消费可选消费 商业品牌协同挖掘商业品牌协同挖掘,共享跨界经济红利共享跨界经济红利 华泰研究华泰研究 商业贸易商业贸易 增持增持 (维持维持)零售零售 增持增持 (维持维持)研究员 林寰宇林寰宇 SAC No.S0570518110001 SFC No.BQO796 (86)755 8249 2388 研究员 王森泉王森泉 SAC No.S0570518120001 SFC No.BPX070 (86)755 2398 7489 研究员 张诗宇张诗宇 SAC No.S0570522080001 SFC No.BSF308 (86)755 2399 3346 行业行业走势图走势图 资料来源:Wind,华泰研究 2023 年 5 月 25 日中国内地 专题研究专题研究 潮流变化,提升品牌价值,世代演进,消费异业潮流变化,提升品牌价值,世代演进,消费异业合作不可或缺合作不可或缺 身处新消费纪元,过去几年品牌快速发展,品牌联名、跨界合作等新兴营销层出不穷,消费者流量随潮流而行,既追求个性又期待有更优质的产品。消费复苏中,品牌 IP 弱化了商业感,强化了情感价值,需求恢复速度或更快。长期看消费群体成长,消费观点演进背后是品牌的文化附加值、创意附加值与情感附加值成为产品本身之外重要的影响因素。因此我们认为,品牌及 IP自带流量、反映认知和圈层,意味着品牌协同或能有效降低曝光成本,更精准识别客户群体,还能够在内容、设计、影响力及产品溢价等多方面赋能消费产品,未来消费企业顺应时代的变化,借助品牌 IP 的力量不可或缺。商业品牌商业品牌赋能消费,提供多层次价值,赋能消费,提供多层次价值,品牌联名品牌联名/跨界提供更多市场空间跨界提供更多市场空间 我们认为优质 IP 还能贡献更多价值:1)时间属性的延展价值。2)空间维度的延展价值。3)美感的延展价值。4)声量价值。5)情感协同价值。如果品牌内核与优质 IP 匹配,赋能后能更有效的实现产品出圈。全球范围来看,1980 年之后诞生的超级 IP 越来越多,潮流风向变化较快,新消费者的注意力也在泛滥的信息中不断分散,从消费品牌商角度而言,品牌或产品调性并不会随着潮流快速调整,越来越多的品牌寻求差异化品牌协同,将品牌潮流化。我们认为品牌跨界/品牌联名能够提升产品认知、差异化品牌内涵,更能顺应消费者潮流变化及品牌方运营发展需求。品牌品牌联名提升产品均价,带来更高毛利率联名提升产品均价,带来更高毛利率 依托异业合作,有望提升产品的内在价值与外在价格。国内市场品牌 IP 授权存在多种模式,包括品牌授权、品牌跨界、促销授权、通路授权、营销推广授权、商标授权、品牌代理等,虽然合作势必要承担更高的成本,但从市场表现来看,合作有助于提升均价与提升毛利率。消费者也更愿意为其精神、情感属性支付更高的价格,也为 IP 商品化后实现更高溢价提供支撑。以名创优品旗下潮玩 TOP TOY 为例,其 2022 年平均客单价达 126.2 元,平均售价为 68.6 元,同年名创优品的平均客单价为 36.5 元,平均售价 12.1 元,产品溢价提升。高客单价也推动了毛利率水平的提升,协同价值凸显。1 12 我们认为中国消费层级逐步演进升级的内在趋势不会改变,全球化的产品与品牌充盈着中国消费者的可选列表,中国企业如何借助品牌协同拓宽固有品牌思维,打开单一品牌价值天花板?我们认为品牌协同有助于再次激活原有“休眠”消费群体,且品牌联名/跨界提供了打破固有圈层、有效应对潮流快速变化的方法,通过与优质 IP 合作能与消费者建立更强的联系,并激发社交媒体自发式传播,或许是未来品牌胜出的关键因素。我们认为乘时代机遇而发展的本土 IP 有望不断涌现,同时看好具备较强品牌及商业化能力且能积极应对潮流变化的商贸零售类企业,有望分享中国本土 IP 成长带来的红利。风险提示:消费者偏好变化;消费者可支配收入下滑。所涉及公司信息均来自客观信息,不代表研究覆盖或投资推荐。(17)(10)(3)512May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23(%)商业贸易零售沪深300 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。2 可选消费可选消费 正文目录正文目录 引言引言.3 品牌协同,新纪元突破,潮流驱动下的消费成长提速品牌协同,新纪元突破,潮流驱动下的消费成长提速.4 消费新纪元,重视头部品牌 IP 价值.4 消费复苏,品牌及 IP 加速情感价值回归.5 长期看世代演进背后的消费趋势.5 看好具备价值提升空间、文化底蕴的中国品牌潜力.7 品牌授权行业变迁折射中国消费及文化变革.7 消费企业积极拥抱趋势.9 应需而生,异业合作赋能消费,提供多层次价值应需而生,异业合作赋能消费,提供多层次价值.10 IP 旧势力与新变局.11 各类品牌及 IP 加速成长.11 层出不穷的品牌协同,促进流量共享.12 品牌跨界协同打破产品界限.21 品牌协同“唤醒”产品.22 品牌协同“唤醒”情感.22 品牌授权财务细细看品牌授权财务细细看.24 授权模式多样.24 品牌协同有利于提升产品毛利率.25 新消费如何顺应时代的潮流?新消费如何顺应时代的潮流?.27 新时代背景下的消费变迁.27 契合度是关键切入点.28 报告提及公司.29 风险提示.29 OYcVqYlYnVmOnPrM8OaO6MsQqQmOtQlOoOnQeRpNsMbRpPyRxNtOzRMYmMrN 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。3 可选消费可选消费 引言引言 短短三年,历经新冠疫情爆发蔓延到“乙类乙管”,随着疫情防控进入新阶段,各地把复苏和扩大消费放在优先位置,企业也在寻找新的突破口和增长点,提振消费信心与创造消费需求为重中之重。但现阶段仍有部分需求尚未完全释放,同时也有部分需求仍处于休眠阶段。破除发展困局,越来越多的企业不断探索消费模式,并总结复苏经验。想要加快消费复苏,需围绕市场中坚力量积极创新,其中,通过跨界协同等新消费业态和消费模式,能够较为有效的激活消费需求、发掘收入增长点,同时,企业也能打造出差异化的竞争壁垒以应对市场的不确定性。因此,我们认为消费复苏过程中,商业品牌协同能够挖掘出大量可供企业和产业参考借鉴的运营经验,帮助更多企业共享跨界经济红利,更好拥抱消费产业新动能。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。4 可选消费可选消费 品牌品牌协同协同,新纪元新纪元突破突破,潮流潮流驱动下的驱动下的消费消费成长提速成长提速 消费新纪元,消费新纪元,重视重视头部品牌头部品牌 IP 价值价值 处于新兴消费浪潮的中国,大量新消费品牌不断涌现,而在移动互联网时代,消费群体对于潮流、品牌、文化等形成了独特的圈层化消费倾向,品牌竞争也从单一产业链维度,拓展到生态圈维度。品牌或 IP 等天然自带流量属性,且其代表着一种认知和一种圈层,意味着异业品牌协同能够降低曝光成本同时更为精准识别客户群体,同时差异化 IP 还能够在内容、设计、影响力及产品溢价等多方面赋能消费品牌,提供更多附加价值。IP(英文 intellectual property 的简称),直接翻译为知识产权,在商贸零售行业的语境中,其还代表了文化、内容、形象、价值观及人格塑造等商业价值,品牌也可以打造成 IP。品牌授权或品牌协同正是利用了其所代表的独特价值,提升产品的竞争力。在多维度竞争的市场环境中,我们认为单纯价格竞争并非上策,消费企业要创造更大的价值,必须在一个更高的维度观察大众市场的品牌建设和产品创新趋势,基于数字化发展在新赛道、新场景和新营销上发力,充分利用技术变迁带来品牌宣传方式的迭代,从品牌角度来看,从用户相关性出发的品牌建设对于行业巨头和初创品牌都至关重要,更应该充分利用品牌及 IP 的价值,有利于更精准地触达目标消费者,最大限度地提高营销与品牌细分的相关性,推动品牌的成长。图表图表1:未来品牌需要在更多维度考虑竞争要求未来品牌需要在更多维度考虑竞争要求 资料来源:亿欧、华泰研究 图表图表2:构建消费品行业价值创造新模式构建消费品行业价值创造新模式 资料来源:Mckinsey、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。5 可选消费可选消费 消费复苏,消费复苏,品牌品牌及及 IP 加速情感价值回归加速情感价值回归 消费群体自发适应当下经济恢复的节奏,但是通过提升产品的价值感有利于创造购物需求,结构上优化价值感更高产品的销售。其中,我们认为品牌及 IP 合作有助于重塑产品的情感价值,为消费者创造更有价值感的购物理由。同时在消费者荷包渐进恢复的情况下,任何消费都代表着放弃另一项支出,品牌透过创新、联名以及策略合作,不断覆盖消费者的视野、攻占消费者心智,更能够让自家品牌成为那个“不可放弃”的唯一,也让消费者更愿意消费。图表图表3:中国消费者回归,中国消费者回归,品牌品牌 IP 或有助于重塑产品情感价值或有助于重塑产品情感价值 资料来源:贝恩咨询、华泰研究 今天的中国消费者拥有不同以往的生活方式,不但消费市场逐渐个性化,同时更多的消费者从偏物质消费的评价标准中抽离,转向更偏情感性文化性消费的评价标准,同价高质的品牌商品受到青睐,产品或品牌内涵的情感体验、文化内容也更为重要,对于部分消费者而言,对商品情感价值的感知甚至胜过功能价值。在新消费时代,品牌及 IP 所表现出的消费引导力以及对客户价值提升力越发明显,更多消费者在三观契合的品牌及 IP 上,呈现出高度的消费认可度。图表图表4:中国年轻消费者在物质消费到文化消费上的变迁中国年轻消费者在物质消费到文化消费上的变迁 资料来源:2021 天猫服饰 IP 白皮书、华泰研究 长期看世代演进背后长期看世代演进背后的的消费趋势消费趋势 从海外发展来看,头部 IP 崛起以 1970-2000 年期间为主,折射的正是欧美日韩发达国家经济基础的发展以及消费者个性化的觉醒,以及品牌授权商业化发展和模式的逐步成熟。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。6 可选消费可选消费 图表图表5:截止截止 2020 年全球相关收入前年全球相关收入前 25 大大 IP 的诞生时间的诞生时间 资料来源:Statista、华泰研究 新世代人群成长在中国人均 GDP 接近发达国家的经济环境下,2021 年中国人均 GDP 已经达到美国 70-80 年代水平。经济基础的差异,使得新世代群体的崛起对于消费潮流形成明显的带动作用,个性化、时尚化、定制化的消费需求不断增长。而回顾海外市场头部 IP 集中诞生期间,正是消费者个性化、小众化的需求诞生的 1970 年代。图表图表6:新兴消费时代的消费者觉醒新兴消费时代的消费者觉醒 资料来源:亿欧、华泰研究 经济持续增长背景下成长起来的消费人群更追求随性消费,品质型与个性化消费并存。且品牌的文化附加值、创意附加值与情感附加值成为产品本身之外重要的消费影响因素。图表图表7:各各世代消费者的随性购买比例(世代消费者的随性购买比例(2019)注:McKinsey 2019 年 Z 世代调查,Z 世代是指 19962010 年出生的一代人 资料来源:McKinsey、华泰研究 22121445201234561920-19301931-19401941-19501951-19601961-19701971-19801981-19901991-20002001-2010 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。7 可选消费可选消费 人口结构变化带来机会,未来随着人口年龄结构进一步调整,或出现更多的差异化需求。在小型化家庭的情况下,我们看好单一消费者消费能力的成长,同时随着线上、新零售用户画像能力的提升,通过标签化消费者,针对性营销也有望加速品牌及品类成长,差异化需求成长或加速。小型化家庭趋势下,单一消费者消费能力有望实现较快增长。根据国家统计局第七次人口普查数据,2020 年全国共有家庭户 49,416 户,较 2010 年增长 23.1%(增速大幅高于人口增速 5.38%),且户均人口也下降至 2.62 人/户。图表图表8:家庭户规模提升家庭户规模提升幅度较大幅度较大 图表图表9:2020 年我国家庭户均人口降至年我国家庭户均人口降至 2.6 人人/户户 资料来源:Wind、华泰研究 资料来源:Wind、华泰研究 而随着新世代消费群体的成长,其消费能力不断提升,消费习惯的延续更将支撑个性化消费的不断拓宽。图表图表10:中国家庭年可支配收入中国家庭年可支配收入展望展望 资料来源:Mckinsey、华泰研究 看好具备价值提升空间、文化底蕴的中国品牌潜力看好具备价值提升空间、文化底蕴的中国品牌潜力 品牌授权行业品牌授权行业变迁折射中国变迁折射中国消费及文化消费及文化变革变革 过去品牌 IP 授权行业以卡通动漫为主,娱乐类占据 IP 授权的主流,授权商类型较为单调。而当前热门品牌授权行业开启多元化发展,艺术文化、电子游戏等 IP 授权品类快速发展。娱乐品类占据主流地位,艺术类授权强势崛起。根据中国玩具与婴童协会的划分标准,授权商 IP 类型主要包括 11 大类,其中卡通动漫类的 IP 授权稳固占据授权行业的主流,2021年卡通动漫类授权销售额占比达 28.2%;艺术品类的 IP 授权近年强势崛起,占比由 2016年的 1.96%增长到 2017 年的 14%,到 2021 年占比已达 18.5%。依托故宫文创、大英博物馆等近年来博物馆文创的蓬勃发展,艺术类授权成为第二大的品牌授权品类。27695348374015249416010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001990200020102020(户)家庭户规模4.44.54.44.03.43.12.60123451953196419821990200020102020(人/户)家庭户均人口 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。8 可选消费可选消费 图表图表11:2021 年年授权市场各授权市场各类型类型占比占比 图表图表12:各各类型类型授权合作授权合作近年来占比走势近年来占比走势 资料来源:中国玩具与婴童协会、华泰研究 资料来源:中国玩具与婴童协会、华泰研究 老故事老故事 新新 IP 模式,模式,文物博物馆文物博物馆迎来授权风口:迎来授权风口:本质上 IP 是一种情感连接的符号和文化体系,随着政策积极引导及传统文化文创品牌知识产权价值的迅速提升,国潮 IP 也进入了发展机遇期。故宫文创是艺术文化类 IP 授权的典例之一。故宫博物院从 2008 年开始经营文创产品,反响平平,后来通过不断在公众号等平台上发文,增加在互联网上的曝光度,逐渐打开艺术类文创市场。同时与阿里、腾讯等企业达成战略合作,在泛娱乐、社交平台上进行合作,着力打造文化礼品、创意生活用品等,让故宫的传统文化、艺术、历史通过创意设计的方式与当代技术相结合,使传统美学获得新的表现形式,深度挖掘故宫的知识产权价值。根据人民网新闻,故宫文创从 2012 年营收 1.5 亿元到 2017 年营收已经突破 15 亿,艺术文化类知识产权的影响力正在不断扩大。图表图表13:故宫文创产品丰富故宫文创产品丰富 资料来源:故宫博物馆官网、华泰研究 游戏类游戏类 IP 成为授权领域新宠:成为授权领域新宠:近年来随着网络与手机移动端的普及,各种移动类游戏迅速普及,电子游戏市场百花齐放,同时也催生了王者荣耀、原神、阴阳师等热门移动游戏。基于移动游戏庞大的用户基数,各大游戏的影响力蒸蒸日上。游戏类 IP 在授权领域中的份额占比不断提升,预计未来游戏授权将成为核心 IP 授权类型。原神是上海米哈游制作发行的一款开放世界冒险游戏,凭借着优秀的开放世界搭建、出色的玩法以及高质量更新,原神吸引了大批忠实玩家,近两年的发展可谓一骑绝尘,而游戏的影响力是 IP 商业潜力的基石。截至 2023 年 1 月,根据 Sensor Tower 的数据,原神已经获得超过 40 亿美元的收入。除了游戏本身的收益,原神的 IP 授权活动频繁,不断加强与各领域联名合作,比如与必胜客、喜茶、得物、支付宝、凯迪拉克等品牌联名,领域覆盖餐饮、电商、汽车、零售等方面。卡通动漫28%艺术文化19%潮流时尚11%影视综艺9%电子游戏9%企业品牌8%肖像形象7%网络文学3%音像图书1%体育运动4%院校名人1%0 0Pp 1620172018201920202021占比娱乐企业品牌时尚艺术 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。9 可选消费可选消费 图表图表14:2021 年年游戏赛道的获奖游戏赛道的获奖年度年度 IP 第一名为原神第一名为原神 资料来源:国家版权交易中心联席会议、华泰研究 未来授权领域趋势将向多元化方向发展。授权商不再只局限于少数几个类型,艺术文创类、电子游戏类、甚至虚拟形象类、虚拟场景类等都将获得一定成长空间,IP 授权领域将迎来百花齐放的局面。消费企业积极拥抱消费企业积极拥抱趋势趋势 品牌协同合作的类型、频次、深度都呈现积极的变化,消费企业积极拥抱趋势,让消费市场更趋丰富。这一趋势体现了品牌对于协同合作在产品创新、拓展客群、提高营销效率、丰富品牌内涵等多重优势的认可度逐步提升,且这些优势在实践中被不断验证。由于行业的不同,品牌协同的特征呈现一定的差异性。我们发现奢侈品行业为品牌协同的先行者与引领者,在与艺术家联名、创意联名、虚拟 IP联名等方面都有标杆案例,影响力广泛。大众消费品中,产品同质化程度高、毛利率高、时尚属性强的行业进行品牌协同合作的积极性更高、玩法更丰富,典型行业包括茶饮、美妆、餐饮、服饰。对于消费企业来说,品牌协同或知识产权协同,在一定程度上是多品牌价值或 IP 价值的延伸,是当下市场热度的延续,不拘泥于狭义的品牌授权,拓展多维度的品牌协同,顺应了品牌方、产品方运营发展的需求。我们认为可以包括 IP 授权、品牌跨界、促销授权、通路授权、营销推广授权、商标授权、品牌代理等多种方式,在品牌或 IP 具备足够影响力的情况下,将其与优质产品、创意营销巧妙结合起来,给予其适配的传播载体,使其影响力最大限度地发挥。同时寻求最佳的品牌协同合作方案,使品牌与品牌、品牌与产品、IP 与产品、IP 与品牌等维度具备高契合度,带动产品销售,给予消费企业源源不断的生命力。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。10 可选消费可选消费 应需而生,应需而生,异业异业合作合作赋能赋能消费,消费,提供提供多层次多层次价值价值 看好异业看好异业合作赋能,有望推升产品价值感。合作赋能,有望推升产品价值感。互联网兴起的产业遵循两条成长生命线,一条来自于商品、服务或场景的使用或体验运营,这是消费者需求稳定并成长的基础,一条来自于线上 IP 的营销,通过知识产权(内生或合作)的赋能和催化,释放产品内在的能量,促进产品销售、提升产品利润、促进匹配的传播、降低推广成本,提高消费者认知。基于传统品牌授权的运营模式仅反映了部分异业合作价值,但也为被授权商提供了超越零售行业的增长,中国年度被授权商品零售额由 2017 年的 747 亿元增长至 2021 年的 1374亿元,年复合增长率达 16.5%;年度品牌授权金由 2019 年的 38.2 亿元增长至 2021 年的53.2 亿元,年复合增长率 18%,整体增速明显优于社零增长(CAGR 4.8%)。图表图表15:中国品牌授权行业发展情况中国品牌授权行业发展情况 资料来源:中国玩具与婴童协会、华泰研究 除了授权业务的合作商品/服务销售之外,我们认为优质知识产权还能贡献 4 大价值:1)时间属性的)时间属性的延展价值:延展价值:一方面,中国民族自信、文化自信伴随着新世代同步成长,中国优质文化的历史内涵具备故事性、连贯性和衍生性价值,是一个强大文化母体。优质的 IP能够将历史文化与现代产品结合复现,强化消费者认同。另一方面,特定的节假日具备特别的情感价值,IP 如果能与特定的节假日契合,能延展出更大的商业价值。2)空间维度延展价值:)空间维度延展价值:二次元 IP 通过三次元产品触达生活,为各世代的精神属性需求提供支撑,并融合了众多吸引消费者的要素,能够给消费提供更多的满足感。3)美感延展价值:美感延展价值:综合运用视觉、听觉、触觉等多种方式,让消费者对于 IP 的热爱通过结合了其美感的产品或服务来呈现。4)声量价值:)声量价值:通过吸引人的内容与年轻人对话,与品牌目标消费者高度重合,实现更有效的消费者教育和产品种草。5)情感协同价值:)情感协同价值:品牌或 IP 人格化,具备更强的亲近感和辨识度,可以和受众之间建立更强的情感关联,有助于强化消费偏好。因此,如果品牌内核与 IP 匹配度高,赋能后更能强化内容及产品出圈。图表图表16:IP 营销的洋葱模型营销的洋葱模型 资料来源:打爆口碑2021、华泰研究 01020304050600200400600800100012001400160020172018201920202021(亿元)(亿元)年度被授权商品零售额年度授权金-右轴 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。11 可选消费可选消费 IP 旧势力与新变局旧势力与新变局 各类各类品牌及品牌及 IP 加速成长加速成长 迪士尼是中国 IP 授权的鼻祖,早在 20 世纪 90 年代便通过中国香港子公司与沿海经济发达地区开张 IP 授权业务,也帮助中国培养了一大批授权商及被授权商,但当时国内知识产权等版权意识的不足,中国 IP 授权行业发展缓慢。进入 21 世纪后,随着中国加入 WTO,加强对于知识版权的保护和国际商业标准的遵守让中国 IP 授权发展逐步步入正轨,而后互联网的发展推动了大批中国本土 IP 的孵化和成长,互联网为新兴知识产权带来的可观的流量红利,且知识产权商业化的条件也不断成熟,中国 IP 授权市场也开始从欧美日韩为主,逐步过渡到中国本土 IP 为主的市场。2015 年更是被称为中国 IP 授权的元年,各种风格和题材的 IP 受到广泛消费者青睐,我们认为多元且不断变化的消费者偏好还将驱动更多的 IP 进入市场。图表图表17:中国中国 IP 市场风起云涌市场风起云涌 IP 分类分类 细类细类 代表性代表性 IP 内容类 IP 文学类 IP 鬼吹灯大主宰诛仙凡人修仙传哈利波特红楼梦等 游戏类 IP 原神王者荣耀和平精英英雄联盟拳皇梦幻西游等 影视类 IP 流浪地球浪姐 2哪吒之魔童降世西游记阿凡达我是歌手等 动漫类 IP 海贼王超级飞侠小猪佩奇七龙珠罗小黑战记非人哉等 综合类 IP 精灵宝可梦、漫威英雄、DC 英雄、美少女战士、奥特曼、孙悟空等 形象类 IP 企业类 IP 京东狗 Joy、天猫小黑猫、腾讯 QQ Family、海尔兄弟、知乎刘看山等 区域类 IP 日本熊本熊、日本群马的小马、西安的唐妞、杭州的西子猫猫、海南的波波椰等 文旅类 IP 故宫、大英博物馆、国家博物馆、长隆主题公园、美国常青藤大学等 赛事活动类 IP NBA、英超、奥运会、亚运会、文博会、世博会等 个人类 IP 猫王、迈克尔杰克逊、玛丽莲梦露、周杰伦、董明珠、李佳琦等 虚拟形象类 IP 初音未来、洛天依、一禅小和尚、萌芽熊、猪小 P 等 设计类 IP Hello Kitty、泰迪珍藏、KAWS、Molly、Smiley、B.Duck 等 资料来源:IP 授权商业化2020、华泰研究 全球范围来看,1980 年之后诞生的超级 IP 越来越多,一方面互联网的发展让优质 IP 的全球认知度快速提升,触达的消费者范围大幅增长,同时,愈发成熟的 IP 运营体系,叠加社交媒体的自发传播,让超级 IP 的打造时间大幅缩短,时间沉淀成本大幅降低。另一方面,优质 IP 通过各类内容(短视频、影视、动漫、文字、音乐、游戏等)不断曝光,其商业价值也在不断推出相关产品和活动中提升,是一个不断正向反馈的过程。图表图表18:截止截止 2020 年全球相关收入前年全球相关收入前 94 大大 IP 的诞生时间的诞生时间 资料来源:Statista、华泰研究 322379182122705101520251920-19301931-19401941-19501951-19601961-19701971-19801981-19901991-20002001-20102011-2020 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。12 可选消费可选消费 由于当前知识产权内容处于快速成长的阶段,大量 IP 成长速度快、流行周期短,作为 IP消费的主力,新世代消费者的个人选择与喜好风潮均处于不断变化的过程中,因此 IP 方、被授权商都倾向于用不断更新的内容和 SKU 来满足消费者的需求。2021 年我国签约的品牌授权项目中,合作期限为 3 年及以内的项目占比进一步扩大,为 92.7%,比上一年提升了 0.7 个百分点。较短的授权周期有助于合作双方把握市场变化,及时调整 IP 授权形式,最大化授权收益。图表图表19:IP 授权期限占比授权期限占比 资料来源:2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书、华泰研究 层出不穷的层出不穷的品牌协同,促进流量共享品牌协同,促进流量共享 我们我们对于大消费行业的品牌协同对于大消费行业的品牌协同案例进行了梳理,案例进行了梳理,从多个从多个维度对于品牌之间维度对于品牌之间协同协同进行了划进行了划分。一是品牌分。一是品牌协同协同的价格定位跨度,二是品牌的价格定位跨度,二是品牌协同协同的行业跨度。的行业跨度。1.按照品牌定位来划分,协同按照品牌定位来划分,协同的类型可以分为四大类:的类型可以分为四大类:1)高端高端:品牌通常分属不同的行业,通过发行联名产品提升自身产品的性能与品质,例如苹果和 Nike 推出的联名款手表,增强了苹果手表在运动方面的功能;两个联名品牌处于同一细分赛道的案例比较少见,但也有取得较高关注度的案例,例如 Gucci 和 Balenciga推出的联名包袋、服饰等;2)大众高端:大众品牌借力高端品牌,有助于形成产品差异化的卖点,从而提升产品力和品牌调性,例如波司登和玛莎拉蒂推出联名款羽绒服;3)大众大众:联名品牌通常均具有较高国民度,品牌所属行业差异性较大,通过让人耳目一新的联名能够获得较高的营销热度,例如蕉内和 999 感冒灵推出的联名款内衣;4)高端大众:高端品牌和大众品牌推出的联名品牌仍定位高端的案例数量相对较少,从已有的案例来看,参与联名的大众品牌在其所在的细分领域处于头部地位并有较高品牌认知度,例如 Moschino 和百威推出的联名款服装。50.3B.4%5.6%1.7P.1A.9%5.8%2.2%0 0P%1年及以下2-3年4-5年6年及以上2021年2020年 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。13 可选消费可选消费 图表图表20:不同定位品牌跨界不同定位品牌跨界/品牌联名品牌联名 资料来源:各品牌公众号、糖酒快讯、IP 授权说、华泰研究 2.按照按照品牌品牌协同方协同方所属行业差异程度来划分,所属行业差异程度来划分,协同协同类型可以分为类型可以分为 3 大类:大类:1)同品类协同:即联名品牌的主要产品属于同一品类,产品相似程度高。此种类型的联名较少,因为相似程度高的品牌通常为竞争对手,合作意愿弱,典型案例有同属开云集团下的 Gucci 和 Balenciaga 的联名。同时,我们认为传统意义上的品牌代理也可以归类为广义范围内的同品类协同,例如国内小家电企业所代理的各个海外品牌,也是利用各自差异化的资源禀赋,实现共赢。2)跨赛道协同:即协同品牌分属不同的赛道,产品存在一定的差异,但是合作能够带来一定的差异化流量,创造新的消费需求点,例如哈根达斯好利来、SupremeRIMOWA、Gucci三叶草;3)跨行业协同:即联名品牌分属不同的行业,品牌的差异性最大。此种类型的联名创新空间大,能够达到较高的营销热度,实现品牌破圈,是品牌协同最主要的类型。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。14 可选消费可选消费 图表图表21:跨界品牌协同跨界品牌协同数量众多数量众多 资料来源:各品牌公众号、数英 Digitaling、未来迹、华泰研究 纵览纵览不同类型的不同类型的 IP,其所,其所适合适合协同的行业不同:协同的行业不同:1)游戏 IP:知名游戏受众广、热度高、用户粘性强,因此游戏 IP 与各消费子行业都有广泛而深入的联名合作。2)影视 IP:主要包括电视剧、电影、综艺、动漫等。经典影视受众广,热门影视有较高的话题度,因此,影视 IP 联名适用于各类大众消费,包括美妆、家电、黄金珠宝、餐饮、文具等领域。3)个人 IP:主要指明星、艺术家、博主等。品牌与明星联名,有望受益于粉丝经济实现短期销量的快速增长,通常适用于食品饮料、餐饮行业;品牌与艺术家联名,短期能够实现产品创新,长期能强化品牌调性且增强品牌的文化属性,常见于美妆、奢侈品、纺织服装、白酒等具有较高品牌溢价的行业。4)设计 IP:主要是指无内容属性的设计形象,例如 emoji、表情包、Line Friends。设计 IP通常在社交媒体被广泛使用,深受年轻人的喜爱,因此通常是新消费品牌以及以年轻人为主要客群的品牌与之联名,常见于美妆、小家电、餐饮等领域。5)文旅 IP:主要包括博物馆、文化刊物、知名景点,其中较为典型的文旅 IP 有故宫宫廷文化、敦煌、大英博物馆。文旅 IP 的知名度高,联名的行业广泛。6)虚拟 IP:主要指虚拟人物、虚拟场景、NFT 等。为近年来新兴的 IP 类型,奢侈品行业在该领域的尝试和探索较为领先,其他消费领域与虚拟 IP 联名主要集中在用虚拟人物进行品牌代言或直播带货。不同的行业进行不同的行业进行联名的特征不同。联名的特征不同。1)毛利高、营销预算充足的行业进行联名的类型更丰富、数量更多、合作更加深入,典型行业为美妆、白酒、奢侈品;2)相对于传统品牌,新消费品牌联名的频次更高、玩法更多样,典型代表为新式茶饮、国货美妆;3)相对于其他行业,奢侈品行业与艺术家等个人 IP 的联名最多,在与虚拟 IP 的联名方面较为领先。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。15 可选消费可选消费 图表图表22:广泛存在的品牌广泛存在的品牌协同协同 资料来源:各品牌公众号、华丽志、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。16 可选消费可选消费 (知名知名品牌代理)新宝品牌代理)新宝摩飞摩飞 2017 年,新宝获得了摩飞商标使用权,成为摩飞在中国的独家代理。摩飞是英国老牌小家电企业,产品定位中高端。摩飞于 2013 年进入中国市场,由于缺乏中国市场运营经验,销售表现平淡。2017 年,新宝成为独家代理后,负责摩飞产品在中国市场的本土化设计制造及运营,在新宝的助力下,摩飞产品销售收入不断增长,根据公司年报,2021 年收入约为16.6 亿元。(知名知名品牌代理)德尔玛品牌代理)德尔玛飞利浦飞利浦 2018 年,德尔玛获得飞利浦净水器、饮水机、滤芯、热水器等品类的商标许可权,后续获授权的品类逐渐增加至坐便器、水龙头、淋浴器、电子干手器和毛巾器、便携按摩器。飞利浦品牌代理许可期限为 20 年。在各个代理品牌的带动下,德尔玛各个品牌授权产品的营收从 2019 年的 4.85 亿元上涨至 2021 年的 12.01 亿元。图表图表23:摩飞国内产品进行了本土化创新摩飞国内产品进行了本土化创新 图表图表2424:德尔玛代理飞利浦的典型产品德尔玛代理飞利浦的典型产品 资料来源:摩飞官网、摩飞京东自营旗舰店、华泰研究 资料来源:德尔玛招股书、华泰研究 (游戏类)原神(游戏类)原神必胜客必胜客 原神是一款制作精良的开放世界游戏,2022 年 8 月 29 日和 2023 年 2 月 27 日原神与必胜客分别开展了两次“必胜邀约 寻珍之旅”联动活动。活动期间,主题店的店面、店员服饰都会以原神风格换装,原神系列的限定餐品会赠送游戏兑换码、礼包等限定产品,与店员对暗号之后还可以获赠海报。根据必胜客公众号信息,首次联动时仅以预购的套餐计算,必胜客门店总营业额达 4000 万元。(游戏类)王者荣耀(游戏类)王者荣耀WECOUTURE 2021 年年底王者荣耀联名高定婚纱品牌 WECOUTURE 推出“花开”系列婚纱,该系列共包括四款婚纱,设计灵感分别来自游戏中的女英雄:瑶、貂蝉、小乔、王昭君。设计师将游戏中的英雄特色与婚纱工艺结合,突破了游戏世界与现实生活的边界。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。17 可选消费可选消费 图表图表25:原神原神必胜客联名必胜客联名 图表图表26:王者荣耀王者荣耀W WECOUTUREECOUTURE 联名联名 资料来源:必胜客公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:WECOUTURE 官网、华泰研究(影视(影视类类)武林外传武林外传奈雪的茶奈雪的茶 作为已经播出 17 年的古装情景喜剧,武林外传 的生命力在剧粉二创的滋养下经久不衰。2023 年 3 月武林外传与奈雪的茶联名,推出联名茶饮,并上线包括人形立牌、贴纸等创意周边,开放线下“同福客栈”主题门店等联名活动。此次联名中奈雪的茶也定制了现时回归联名产品“霸气榴莲”,也是奈雪霸气榴莲系列产品的第五年回归。(影视类)(影视类)梦华录梦华录喜茶喜茶 梦华录是 2022 年的大爆古装剧,兼具艺术价值和商业价值,其剧集本身浸染的茶文化与喜茶的文化理念高度适配,喜茶在 2022 年夏天推出梦华录联名款茶饮,包括紫苏粉桃饮、梦华茶喜点茶两款茶饮以及联名瓶装茶,联名款茶饮销量表现积极。除了联名茶饮以外,喜茶还推出了赠送周边手信、线下打卡点等联名活动。图表图表27:奈雪的茶奈雪的茶武林外传联名武林外传联名 图表图表28:梦华录梦华录喜茶联名喜茶联名 资料来源:奈雪的茶公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:喜茶公众号、华泰研究 (影视类)哈利波特(影视类)哈利波特好利来好利来 2022 年 7 月,好利来和哈利波特发售联名月饼,月饼礼盒中杂揉了大量哈利波特世界中的魔法元素,包括金色飞贼、海德薇、站台车票等等;2022 年 9 月,好利来与哈利波特再度联名,发售一系列新品:预言家日报蛋糕、霍格沃茨城堡蛋糕、死亡圣器面包等,一经上线便被抢售一空。(设计类)线条小狗(设计类)线条小狗瑞幸瑞幸 2023 年 2 月,瑞幸和线条小狗在情人节推出了联名新款,推出“带刺玫瑰拿铁”和“相思红豆拿铁”两款情人节新品,杯套与杯袋都以此主题换新,同时推出联名主题店、联名贴纸、礼品卡等等。线条小狗是插画设计师所制作的系列表情包,近期在网络十分火热,IP影响力也随之增强。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。18 可选消费可选消费 图表图表2929:哈利波特哈利波特好利来好利来 图表图表3030:线条小狗线条小狗瑞幸瑞幸 资料来源:好利来公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:瑞幸公众号、华泰研究 (品牌类)(品牌类)茅台茅台蒙牛蒙牛 由茅台集团和蒙牛集团打造的茅台冰淇凌在 2022 年 5 月上线,推出青梅煮酒、经典原味、香草口味三个口味,每份价格为 59、66、66 元,试图将茅台酒酱香风味与鲜奶乳香风味巧妙结合,是公司对于白酒发展年轻化的一次尝试。根据茅台市场工作会数据,新款冰淇淋自 2022 年 5 月 29 日上市以来,到 12 月底营收达 2.62 亿元。(品牌类)(品牌类)欧米茄欧米茄Swatch 2022 年 3 月,两大手表品牌欧米茄和 Swatch 发布联名款手表。欧米茄与 Swatch 同属于腕表品牌,但其产品定位、价格区间差异较大。欧米茄主打高收入人群,表款价格最低在万元以上,Swatch 是主打石英表的品牌,均价在数百元,走大众路线。此次联名属于手表领域高端品牌与平价品牌之间的联名,对于欧米茄来说,扩大了市场对欧米茄品牌关注度,培育了潜在受众人群;对 Swatch 来说有助于其品牌升级,销量提升。图表图表31:茅台茅台蒙牛蒙牛联名联名 图表图表32:欧米茄欧米茄SwatchSwatch 联名联名 资料来源:贵州茅台公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:Swatch 公众号、华泰研究 (卡通动漫类)宝可梦(卡通动漫类)宝可梦肯德基肯德基 2022 年 5 月 21 日,肯德基推出了当年的儿童节套餐搭配玩具,只需要购买 69 元至 109元指定套餐就可以随机获得一款宝可梦玩具。其中可达鸭音乐盒玩具以呆萌的动作配上魔性的音乐,以“强互动性”在各大视频平台掀起了二创风潮。在二手交易平台上甚至出现了炒作价格的现象。(卡通动漫类)(卡通动漫类)LOEWE吉卜力工作室吉卜力工作室 LOEWE 作为奢侈品牌,近年来与吉卜力工作室开发了多款衣服包袋的联名产品,深挖 IP内核的前提下与品牌结合做出产品创新,打入年轻人市场。2021 年开始第一次合作,以龙猫为创意主题;2022 年春季,以千与千寻为主题打造合作新款;2023 年以哈尔的移动城堡为主题,将电影中的细节与风格拆解重构为包袋的配件元素,变成一只“城堡包包”。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。19 可选消费可选消费 图表图表33:宝可梦宝可梦肯德基联名肯德基联名 图表图表34:LOEWELOEWE吉卜力工作室吉卜力工作室联名联名 资料来源:肯德基公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:LOEWE 官网、华泰研究 (潮流服饰类)(潮流服饰类)Champion泡泡玛特泡泡玛特 Champion 是现代版连帽卫衣的发明者,是个有百年历史的运动服饰品牌。2023 年 1 月,Champion 与 POP MART 旗下的大热 IPDIMOO WORLD 展开联名活动,推出首个限量联名系列服饰及虚拟公仔,Champion 此番以 DIMOO【时光漫游】系列为灵感,对应“过去现在未来”打造出全新 ChampionDIMOO 联名虚拟角色 秦将、电玩小子、D01。图表图表35:Champion泡泡玛特泡泡玛特联名联名 图表图表36:QQ 浏览器浏览器上美影上美影联名联名 资料来源:泡泡玛特公众号、华泰研究 资料来源:QQ 浏览器视频号、华泰研究 (文化类)(文化类)QQ 浏览器浏览器上美影上美影 2022 年儿童节,恰逢中国动画诞生一百周年,QQ 浏览器将两个节日巧妙地连接起来,携手上海美术电影制片厂,运用现代的 VR 技术,将经典的动画故事与人物搬运到浏览器上。不仅让用户感受到浏览器地持续更新与升级,也加强了观众的体验与参与感。(文化类)(文化类)王者荣耀王者荣耀敦煌研究院敦煌研究院 王者荣耀与敦煌研究院在设计皮肤时开展了多次合作,从 2018 年到 2022 年,先后推出了以敦煌文化为主题的“遇见飞天”“遇见神鹿”“遇见胡旋”三款英雄皮肤,将敦煌壁画的文化元素融合至二次元的人物形象中。此外,在去年的赛季中,王者荣耀以数字化的场景还原了“敦煌故事”,在游戏中以英雄视角开启了一场敦煌壁画修复之旅。(文(文化化类)剑南春类)剑南春三星堆博物馆三星堆博物馆 2021 年底剑南春与三星堆博物馆文创开展联名活动,以古蜀人酿酒的文化底蕴设计出三星堆主题的“剑南春-青铜纪”联名收藏纪念酒,在瓶体采用三星堆青铜面具造型,独有的青铜釉色渲染,同时包括两个渐变色酒杯,于当年双十二在天猫旗舰店限量发售。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。20 可选消费可选消费 图表图表37:王者荣耀王者荣耀敦煌研究敦煌研究院联名院联名 图表图表3838:剑南春剑南春三星堆博物馆三星堆博物馆联名联名 资料来源:王者荣耀官网、华泰研究 资料来源:三星堆博物馆文创公众号、华泰研究 (虚拟类)(虚拟类)LVNFT 2021 年 8 月,为纪念品牌创始人诞辰 200 周年,奢侈品牌 LV 推出“LOUIS:The Game”NFT(数字藏品)游戏,参与的玩家有机会获得以 NFT 形式发行的品牌历史明信片。之后LV 还推出了 10 个围绕游戏主角 Vivienne(路易威登 logo 的拟人化虚拟人像)设计的全新NFT 产品,游戏玩家达到一定等级后有机会获得抽奖资格。(虚拟类)(虚拟类)阿里拍卖阿里拍卖十二兽首十二兽首 NFT 自 2022 年 3 月起,圆明园十二兽首的虚拟数字藏品陆续开始在阿里拍卖官网上亮相。根据阿里拍卖官网显示,每款兽首作品库存限量 10000 份,其中 9882 份直购价为 29.9 元,90天后版权可以二次转让,1 份增价拍卖。而拍卖的 8 款兽首中羊首价格最高为 8141 元,狗首价格最低为 3151 元。图表图表39:LVLV NFTNFT 图表图表4040:阿里拍卖阿里拍卖十二兽首十二兽首 NFTNFT 资料来源:LV 官网、华泰研究 资料来源:阿里拍卖官网、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。21 可选消费可选消费 品牌跨界品牌跨界协同协同打破打破产品产品界限界限 品牌品牌跨界跨界联名助力联名助力多维度多维度营销。营销。当前授权商授权模式主要分为五类,包括商品授权、品牌联名、主题空间授权、内容改编授权以及促销授权。商品授权是最为普遍的授权模式,通过商标、角色、形象等 IP 应用于商品设计的方式,拓宽消费人群从而提升商品销量,2021年商品授权的占比为 49.4%,比上一年提升 5.4 个百分点;而品牌联名是新近兴起的授权模式,近年来已经发展成第二大的授权模式,占比达 26.3%,通过两个品牌联名,使得品牌之间相互借力,扩充双方自带的影响力与关注度,从而实现互利共赢,其实质为跨界营销。商品授权是最为广泛的授权方式,授权金比例波动较大,根据 2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书数据,通常在 3%到 17%之间波动,视 IP 授权的具体情况上下浮动;品牌联名合作各方一般不涉及或只涉及少量授权金。图表图表41:授权业务的主要合作模式授权业务的主要合作模式 资料来源:2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书、华泰研究 除了以上授权业务模式之外,广义上 IP 授权还包括:品牌跨界、促销授权、通路授权、营销推广授权、商标授权等合作方式。随着“新世代”群体崛起,并开始主导市场风向,个性化、时尚化、定制化的消费需求不断增长,潮流风向变化较快,新消费者的注意力也在泛滥的信息中不断分散,但从品牌角度而言,品牌调性或产品维度并不会随着潮流快速调整,由于越来越多的品牌寻求强强联合的品牌协同效应,在“万物皆可联名”的潮流下,跨界营销/品牌联名保持高热度。不同调性品牌合作让合作本身更具话题性与吸引力,或更能够在多赛道、多场景、新营销的市场脱颖而出。图表图表42:潮流新趋势不断变化潮流新趋势不断变化 资料来源:亿欧智库、华泰研究 49.4&.3.4%8.5%3.4D.0&.6.5.6%6.3%0 0P%商品授权品牌联名主题空间促销授权内容改编2021年2020年 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。22 可选消费可选消费 品牌品牌协同协同“唤醒唤醒”产品产品 两个具备不同使用场景的产品之间合作,一定程度上会唤醒消费者对于另一个产品所代表两个具备不同使用场景的产品之间合作,一定程度上会唤醒消费者对于另一个产品所代表能力的认知。能力的认知。品牌跨界/品牌联名业务更是一种营销策略,将其他品牌的调性赋予到商品或服务上,该品牌所具备的时尚/艺术特性很多时候都具有创造品牌知名度和销售的作用,同时能让差异化的消费者体验到更为丰富的品牌文化。2016 年,华为与徕卡首次推出了名为华为 P9 的智能手机,成功的提升了消费者对于华为相机能力的认知,而与保时捷合作推出的 Mate9(保时捷版),在当年重新定义了商务旗舰手机,提升了消费者对于华为年度旗舰手机的认知。图表图表43:华为和徕卡、保时捷合作提升产品力华为和徕卡、保时捷合作提升产品力 资料来源:华为官网、华泰研究 品牌品牌协同协同“唤醒唤醒”情感情感 潮流变化背后折射的是年轻消费者内在精神需求的多变,品牌调性短期难以改变,需要引入新的差异品牌才能重新把品牌的文化内涵进行再创造,不但可以提升自身品牌的渗透,也能够扩大联名品牌的影响力。H&M从2004年至今与众多奢侈设计师品牌合作,Karl Lagerfeld 是第一个开始与 H&M 合作的品牌,通过与设计师品牌合作,H&M 能够有效捕捉当下的流行趋势,提升 H&M 在创意方面的影响力,也间接带动了设计师品牌进一步扩张了影响力。优衣库品牌也通过推出许多系列来扩大消费者范围,包括与 KAWS、Keith Haring、Jil Sander、Alexander Wang 等知名设计师合作。通过推出许多不同风格的设计师系列,既可以吸引消费者的注意力,又可以针对多种多样的目标群体进行销售。大白兔从 2015 年起推出一系列的跨界活动和产品,让大白兔这个超过 60 岁的品牌重焕活力,越来越受到年轻人的喜爱和追捧。大白兔的合作对象包括太平鸟、美加净、太平洋咖啡、气味图书馆等不同风格的品牌,整体沿着味觉、嗅觉、视觉方向不断延伸品牌合作矩阵,形成一张以大白兔 IP 为中心的情感联结网络。作为国内新兴茶饮消费品牌的两大代表,喜茶和奈雪不断联名经典 IP 展开品牌活动,引起了消费者的热烈反馈和广泛参与,联名产品、品牌活动一次次为消费者带来了新的惊喜。其中喜茶自 2017 年以来,联动了超过 100 个不同品类的品牌,联名 IP 包括藤原浩、梦华录、原神、只此青绿、甄嬛传等,奈雪联名 IP 包括故宫博物院、独行月球、苍兰诀、葫芦娃、中国奇谭等。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。23 可选消费可选消费 图表图表44:情感唤醒联名案例情感唤醒联名案例 资料来源:大白兔公众号、奈雪公众号、喜茶公众号、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。24 可选消费可选消费 品牌品牌授权授权财务财务细细看细细看 品牌协同能够带动产品均价提升,并带动更优的毛利率水平。品牌协同能够带动产品均价提升,并带动更优的毛利率水平。直观的来看,消费者也更愿意为其精神、情感属性支付更高的价格,也为知识产权商品化后实现更高溢价提供支撑。品牌授权对产品销售带动效果显著。开展品牌授权业务的直接收益是提升产品的销售额,根据中国玩具与婴童协会统计,有授权的产品销售额普遍高于无授权的同类产品;2021 年89.1%的品牌授权业务为产品销售带来了正向收益,同时近年来,对产品销售有大幅拉动作用的业务占比不断提升,从 2017 年至 2021 年,品牌授权带动产品销额提升 50%及以上的公司占比趋势上行。图表图表45:2021 年年 IP 授权产品与同类产品的销额差别授权产品与同类产品的销额差别 图表图表46:带动产品销额带动产品销额增长增长 50%以上的公司占比走势以上的公司占比走势 资料来源:中国玩具与婴童协会、华泰研究 资料来源:中国玩具与婴童协会、华泰研究 授授权模式多样权模式多样 被授权商与授权商双方主要通过收取授权金的方式来完成授权交易。收取授权金的模式主要包括以下四种:1)有保底金,并收取溢缴授权金;2)无保底无分成无定额,资源互换,联合推广;3)无保底金,按实际销售额的一定比例收取授权金;4)年度一次性定额收取授权金。其中保底授权金 溢缴授权金是最主要的授权金收取方式,2021 年占比达 48.3%,同比提升 3.2pct。这种授权金收取模式有助于推动合作双方的共赢,一方面给授权商保证了最低版权金,另一方面激励授权商与被授权商为扩大销售而努力,有效促进合作质量的提升,扩大授权收益。图表图表47:品牌授权商授权金收取模式构成品牌授权商授权金收取模式构成 资料来源:2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书、华泰研究 销售额没有提升11%销售额提升1-19$%销售额提升20-49&%销售额提升50-99%销售额提升一倍以上23%0%5 %05EP 172018201920202021销售额提升50-99%销售额提升一倍以上48.3&.6.4.7E.1%.1.4.4%0 0P%保底授权金 溢缴授权金无保底金,按销售额一定比例收取年度一次性定额授权金收取资源互换,联合推广2021年2020年 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。25 可选消费可选消费 授权金比例差异较大,多因素决定授权金水平。品牌授权商收取的版权金比例,即版税税率,在不同被授权行业和产品之间存在差异。根据中国玩具与婴童协会编写的2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书所统计的 14 大品类中,2021 年有 6 个品类的平均税率相比上一年有所上涨,4 个品类下降,4 个品类持平,整体上比例在 3%-17%之间波动。授权金比例会受到多方面因素的影响,从授权方本身的 IP 价值到被授权方的知名度,从授权产品竞争力到IP 与产品的契合度,版税税率的变化与市场中的种种因素相关。图表图表48:2021 年中国按被授权行业收取授权金的平均税率与波动幅度(以批发营业额为基准)年中国按被授权行业收取授权金的平均税率与波动幅度(以批发营业额为基准)被授权品类被授权品类 平均税率平均税率 与上年相比与上年相比 税率区间税率区间 玩具游艺 10%-6-16%服装饰品 10%6-15%婴童用品 10%7-13%家居家纺 7%5-13%图书出版 9%6-13%电子数码 8%6-13%礼品赠品 9%7-12%运动户外 9%7-13%健康美容 7%-4-12%食品饮料 4%3-9%文具办公 8%6-12%音乐音像 11%-7-14%软件/app/游戏 11%-6-17%主题空间 5%3-15%资料来源:2022 年中国品牌授权白皮书、华泰研究 品牌协同品牌协同有利于提升产品毛利率有利于提升产品毛利率 TOP TOY 是名创优品旗下的全球潮玩集合店品牌,涵盖盲盒、积木、手办、拼装模型等 8大品类,根据弗罗斯特沙利文报告,TOP TOY 于 2022 财年的 GMV 达到 5.19 亿元。TOP TOY 与名创优品品牌高度互补,大多采用内部孵化或者独立设计艺术家共同开发的 IP,以更广泛的产品价格范围和更高的客单价迎合了更广泛的消费者群体。TOP TOY 积极开展 IP 联名与 IP 自创,溢价能力显著提升。TOP TOY 自成立以来广泛开展与 IP 授权商的合作关系,利用大众媒体中的文化趋势,提升产品设计的多样性,根据公司公告,截止 2022 年 6 月,公司已经与 14 家 IP 授权商合作开发了 190 款 IP 联名产品,与 75 家 IP 授权商建立了品牌联名关系,包括漫威、迪士尼、Hello Kitty 及 Universal 等。图表图表49:TOP toy 合作合作 IP 产品产品 资料来源:公司官网、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。26 可选消费可选消费 IP 产品通常具有较高的毛利率,主要是由于品牌联名 IP 产品通常具有较强的定价能力。提升产品的溢价能力,改善毛利率水平,根据名创优品 2022 年年报,TOP TOY 平均客单价达 126.2 元,平均售价为 68.6 元,同年名创优品门店的平均客单价为 36.5 元,平均售价12.1 元,产品溢价能力显著提升。名创优品的毛利由 2021 财年的 24.3 亿元增长至 2022财年的 30.7 亿元,同期毛利率由 26.8%增长至 30.4%,部分由于毛利较高的 IP 产品销售增加。泡泡玛特是一个全球化的潮玩品牌,IP 运营与创作设计是泡泡玛特产品的核心,近年来泡泡玛特从发掘艺术家到 IP 运营再到 IP 商业化,已经建立起成熟的 IP 孵化体系,形成了自有 IP、独家 IP、非独家 IP 三大种类的 IP 产品,近年来制造了诸如 Molly、Dimoo、SkullPanda等著名 IP 形象,公司本身营收结构以品牌产品为主,根据公司公告,2022 年品牌营收占比达 90.8%,从 2020 年的 21.36 亿元增长至 2022 年的 41.9 亿元,增长 96.1%。自成立以来,泡泡玛特不断强化 IP 开发,由于自主开发 IP 产品的销售占比增加,泡泡玛特整体毛利率也随之改善。从 2017 至 2019 年毛利率水平由 47.6%上升至 64.8%,近 3 年维持在高位。图表图表50:泡泡玛特泡泡玛特 2022 年年 IP 产品资源产品资源占比占比 资料来源:公司年报、华泰研究 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。27 可选消费可选消费 新消费新消费如何顺应时代的潮流?如何顺应时代的潮流?大浪淘沙的市场环境下,我们认为中国消费层级逐步演进升级的内在趋势不会改变,同时全球化的产品与品牌充盈着中国消费者的可选列表,中国品牌商如何借助 IP 的力量提升消费者对于品牌的信任并拓展成长天花板?我们认为:1)潮流消费趋势下,智能、悦己、国风、颜值等兴趣圈层细分领域催化出不同赛道,潮流潮流表象下,反映表象下,反映的是的是新新世代消费者世代消费者对于个性化产品的追求,是内在精神追求的具象化。个性对于个性化产品的追求,是内在精神追求的具象化。个性化的需求让化的需求让品牌具备突围的可能性。品牌具备突围的可能性。2)不论线上或线下,消费都是生活方式的表达,产品所传达的理念强调一致性,不断跟随主要消费客群需求演进,增强与自身圈层消费者粘性,品牌品牌联名联名/跨界跨界提供了打提供了打破破固有固有圈层,圈层,能够更有效应对能够更有效应对潮流的潮流的快速变化,更积极的融合共生或能形成新的圈层。快速变化,更积极的融合共生或能形成新的圈层。拓展固有品牌思拓展固有品牌思维,打开单一品价值天花板。维,打开单一品价值天花板。3)品牌协同再次激活原有品牌协同再次激活原有“休眠休眠”消费群体。消费群体。找出“休眠”消费者中最有可能被激活的细分群,依托 IP 协同传递出合适的唤醒内容,切中消费者需求。4)短视频/直播大行其道的市场中,将消费者时间价值转化为品牌价值,利用口碑影响力强化品牌识别,与联名共同创造价值,与联名共同创造价值,进入消费者的视野,进入消费者的视野,让品牌在消费者心中留下更为深让品牌在消费者心中留下更为深刻的影响,刻的影响,与消费者建立更强的联系,让品牌成为那个“不可放弃”,与消费者建立更强的联系,让品牌成为那个“不可放弃”的唯一。的唯一。5)具备话题属性的创意联名,激发社交媒体自发式传播,让独立圈层的品牌接触到更多潜创意联名,激发社交媒体自发式传播,让独立圈层的品牌接触到更多潜在客群。在客群。新新时代背景时代背景下的消费变迁下的消费变迁 当前社会兼具信息化、社交化、圈层化的时代特征。当前社会兼具信息化、社交化、圈层化的时代特征。在“不流动”的社会中,消费群体受限于固定的交际范围无法拓展具备相似价值观、兴趣点的社交圈。得益于大数据的精准推送与传播技术的变革,使得消费群体能够在互联网中以选择自由、身份独立、内容小众为特征,形成以社交服务类媒体、购物类社交媒体、娱乐资讯类社交媒体为媒介的社交圈层。新新世代成长为互联网用户主力,对情感维度的追求显著提高。世代成长为互联网用户主力,对情感维度的追求显著提高。根据 QuestMobile 的 2022年 Z 世代洞察报告,新世代线上活跃用户规模达到 3.42 亿,月人均单日使用时长达 7.2 小时,高于全网用户,移动视频、移动社交与手机游戏占据了 Z 世代线上时间的 37.4%、28.5%及 7.9%。Z 世代基础生活殷实,深度涉足网络世界,因此线上生活更看重情感需求的实现,追求对社交、尊重及自我实现的需求满足。生活方式变化,生活方式变化,释放释放精神压力精神压力缓解精神内耗的需求强烈缓解精神内耗的需求强烈。随着社会与工作的快节奏化,消费者面临着各种的心理压力,消费者不再局限于物质上的满足,减少精神内耗,选择和自己精神契合度最高的产品是解压的重要手段。个性化消费主张,消费被赋予更多意义。个性化消费主张,消费被赋予更多意义。随着时代演进,消费者需求不再跟风、不再墨守成规,消费主张着重在确认自我、表现自我,呈现出更加个性化的效果。品牌需要根据目标用户的圈层爱好,打造更加垂直细分的产品领域,结合品牌自身特点制定策略。文化自信崛起,传统文化走进日常消费。文化自信崛起,传统文化走进日常消费。新世代成长于中国崛起的环境中,见证了民族复兴的多次跨越,对民族文化有着更强的认同感与接纳度,消费市场中“哈韩”、“哈日”等文化走弱,而国风国潮文化受到新一代年轻人追捧,包括汉服文化的盛行、文化类综艺的热播。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。28 可选消费可选消费 新新世代版权意识更强,更愿意为优质世代版权意识更强,更愿意为优质内容付费。内容付费。新世代成长于消费升级的时代,经济水平和消费意识更高,相比于其他年龄阶段对知识产权的保护意识更强,近年来盗版影视、音乐等市场大幅缩水,而影视、音乐等内容付费市场的火热也体现出了新世代更愿意为优质内容买单。经济的稳步发展推动了人们消费升级的浪潮,一方面消费品牌观念更强,另一方面更多消费者从物质层面追求,上升到追求精神、文化领域的自信和满足感。我们认为乘时代机遇而发展的本土 IP 有望不断涌现,为国潮蓬勃发展注入不竭动力。但国内缺乏实现全产业链运营的 IP,仍需向海外借鉴 IP 产业链的运营及商业化经验,随着资产资源汇聚未来头部 IP或更为集中。契合度是关键切入点契合度是关键切入点 根据中国玩具和婴童用品协会发布的2022 中国品牌授权行业发展白皮书,截止 2021 年底,在中国开展品牌授权业务的企业总数为 632 家,同比增长 7.8%,已经开展的授权业务的 IP 为 2354 项,同比增长 7.9%。不断增长的 IP 数量让企业可选范围不断扩大,但也并不是所有 IP 都适合合作,要达到预期的目标我们认为不但需要重视 IP 是否有好内容、好素材及好服务,同时在 IP 的用户群、内涵上与企业和产品的契合度至关重要。其中,产品锚定的用户群是否契合,包括受教育程度、年龄段、收入等。同时 IP 作为一个载体,是否让用户对其三观(世界观、文化观、价值观)有了更深的认同,更好地展示了消费者的深层次观点。图表图表51:国内从事国内从事 IP 授权企业不断增长授权企业不断增长 图表图表52:国内国内 IP 授权数量也不断提升授权数量也不断提升 资料来源:中国玩具和婴童用品协会、华泰研究 资料来源:中国玩具和婴童用品协会、华泰研究 但 IP 授权仍应该是品牌营销上锦上添花的手段,在有好的产品和服务基础上,才能让 IP赋能后的营销活动更有效,释放更大的能量。因此,我们看好具备较强 IP 商业化能力且能积极应对潮流变化的零售类企业,一方面,中国本土化能力突出,有望分享中国 IP 成长而来的红利,另一方面,或能够更为有效的利用全球头部 IP 资源,迎合消费者趋势变化,实现更快的销售增长及盈利提升。632 7.8%0%5 %05002003004005006007002018201920202021(家)品牌授权企业同比2,354 7.9%0%5 %05001,0001,5002,0002,5002018201920202021(个)授权IP数同比 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。29 可选消费可选消费 报告提及公司报告提及公司 图表图表53:报告提及公司上市信息概览报告提及公司上市信息概览 公司公司 上市信息上市信息 新宝股份 002705 CH 德尔玛 301332 CH 泡泡玛特 9992 HK 名创优品 9896 HK/MNSO US 奈雪的茶 2150 HK 开运集团 KER FP 飞利浦 Philips NV H&M HMb SS 瑞幸咖啡 LKNCY US 贵州茅台 600519 CH 蒙牛乳业 2139 HK 米哈游 未上市 喜茶 未上市 华为 未上市 资料来源:Bloomberg、Wind、华泰研究 风险提示风险提示 消费者偏好变化。消费者偏好受到潮流转向影响,IP 的迭代加快,竞争加剧,原来的 IP 影响力大幅弱化。消费者可支配收入下滑。如果宏观经济表现偏弱,导致消费者可支配收入下滑,整体消费能力和消费欲望下降,可能导致零售市场弱化,各类 IP 产品销售弱化。所涉及公司信息均来自客观信息,不代表研究覆盖或投资推荐。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分,请务必一起阅读。30 可选消费可选消费 免责免责声明声明 分析师声明分析师声明 本人,林寰宇、王森泉、张诗宇,兹证明本报告所表达的观点准确地反映了分析师对标的证券或发行人的个人意见;彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的具体建议或所表迖的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。一般声明及披露一般声明及披露 本报告由华泰证券股份有限公司(已具备中国证监会批准的证券投资咨询业务资格,以下简称“本公司”)制作。本报告所载资料是仅供接收人的严格保密资料。本报告仅供本公司及其客户和其关联机构使用。本公司不因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司及其关联机构(以下统称为“华泰”)对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、评估及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期,华泰可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。同时,本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入可能会波动。以往表现并不能指引未来,未来回报并不能得到保证,并存在损失本金的可能。华泰不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。华泰对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改,投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司不是 FINRA 的注册会员,其研究分析师亦没有注册为 FINRA 的研究分析师/不具有 FINRA 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行业研究LVMH誓言干掉代购渠道 对国内免税业务的影响Impact of Eliminating Daigou by LVMH on Domestic Duty-Free Market2埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH01何为奢侈品代购?Definition of the Luxury Goods Purchasing Agent(Daigou)奢侈品代购定义奢侈品代购通俗的来讲是居住在境外的人为居住在中国境内的人购买商品的行为。代购行为产生的原因是由于奢侈品进口关税过高而导致中国境内奢侈品标准定价高于海外,部分消费者为了“图便宜”而选择通过代购渠道在境外市场进行购买。代购通常是由境外个人或出口集团负责在中国以外的地区购买所需商品,然后将商品邮寄到中国,或在返回中国时将其放在行李中,随后再出售以获取利润。简而言之,奢侈品代购是通过代购渠道以免税价格、汇率差价或比境内市场低的价格购买奢侈品的行为。2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.3何为奢侈品代购?01奢侈品代购影响了哪些市场?从销售渠道来讲,奢侈品销售分为有税和免税两个渠道。奢侈品代购无疑将对其有税和免税渠道的销售同时带来影响。免税渠道本来仅服务于特定人群,但是代购为本应该从正规销售渠道购买的消费者提供了“以更低价格购买到心仪产品”的可能。这必将导致奢侈品原本正规渠道的销售额被剥夺(有税),从境内正规的购物中心店铺购买的消费者数量下降,然而境外有税免税渠道将会产生额外的、与不符的消费者数量的销售额增加。有税渠道奢侈品品牌通过在特定国家、城市、购物中心中开设店铺通过正规渠道、交付税费后以直接售卖的形式将商品交付给消费者的形式。该形式是奢侈品品牌和集团最为广泛、销售额来源最高的销售形式。免税渠道仅服务有出境游、国际游等出行需求的人群,再结合奢侈品品牌所采取的选择性零售方式(Selective Retailing)如市内免税店,从而将商品以免税价格售卖给消费者的形式。奢侈品代购为从正规渠道购买的消费者提供了更低的价格4埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH何为奢侈品代购?01奢侈品代购对于奢侈品品牌带来的影响代购行为无疑将会对奢侈品品牌的价值造成消极影响,拉低品牌本身的价值。奢侈品在国际上通常被指作“一种超出人们生存与发展需要范围的、具有独特、稀缺、珍奇等特点的消费品”,是人们在平时生活中的非生活必需品;从经济学角度来讲是价值与品质关系比值最高的商品。奢侈品本身给消费者带来的无形价值是远远超过有形价值的,也就是说消费者在购买奢侈品是所寻求的并不是商品本身的功能需求,而是奢侈品本身对于消费者地位、社会关系、心理满足、自我及社会价值等维度带来的无形意义。最初人们购买奢侈品的原因是昂贵的售价和少数限量所带了心理优越感,或者少数能和品牌想要传达的企业文化与精神所契合的高端客户,但是通过代购可以以较低的机会成本来达到当初的同样的优越感,但是却理解不到企业想要传达的内层含义。如果奢侈品变成“占有即可”,最初奢侈品中的奢侈一词的意义也就不复存在。那么奢侈品代购行为影响的是什么?代购渠道所购买的奢侈品通常会低于专柜定价,也就意味着通过代购渠道购买到特定商品的消费者以低于当地专柜市场价的手段获取到本身定价高昂的奢侈品,这对从专柜以常规定价购买的消费者来讲是不公平的,无疑将拉低奢侈品以及奢侈品品牌来原本在特定市场中的价值。奢侈品品牌价值的维护与建立是基于消费者通过购买其产品所得到的无形价值,如果不同消费者(正规渠道vs.代购渠道)为这种价值所支付的成本存在差异,那么奢侈品品牌就无法保证其商品所传递给客户的价值是同等的。因此,长久看来,代购必定会拉低奢侈品品牌原有的价值、损害未来的销售和品牌形象,以及流失最忠实的客户,最终影响的将是奢侈品品牌的存活能力。2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.502奢侈品代购产业将会没落?The Imminent Downfall of the Luxury Goods Daigou Industry6埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH奢侈品代购产业将会没落?02LVMH奢侈品品集团CEO宣布大力打压代购渠道2023年开年1月,LVMH奢侈品集团公布了其2022年的财务报表和全年业绩表现。近年来,通过代购渠道,尤其是通过海外免税渠道购入的奢侈品商品大量涌入中国国内消费者市场。在过去三年,疫情导致国内消费者国际旅行受限,但是在韩国奢侈品免税市场却出现了一个神奇的现象,即在机场客流稀少的情况下,免税店也不像疫情前那样火爆,但是免税业务却取得高额销售额及收入。造成这一现象的原因是免税奢侈品商品从未抵达过柜台,而是直接从仓库运到职业代购手中,代购再以低于国内市场价的折扣价销售给消费者。Bernard Arnault表示,代购现象对于集团整体形象、品牌以及消费者形象均带来了无法忍受的消极影响。对于这一极具挑战性的现象,LVMH集团决定将遏制或清除其在世界各地旅游零售业的所有平行渠道,以维护品牌资本。Bernard Arnault在财报后的电话会议中表示由于代购对于集团业务的消极影响,集团将在2023年加大力度整治并打压其商品通过代购渠道导向消费者的可能,杜绝在国外市场购买产品再以折扣价出售的行为。Bernard ArnaultLVMH集团主席兼首席执行官赴韩外国游客的免税销售额(单位:亿元人民币)韩国机场总国际旅客数量(单位:万人次)韩国免税店外国游客人数(单位:万人次)2019202020212022201920202021202270581196319178220192020202120222023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.7奢侈品代购产业将会没落?022022年LVMH表现如何?按地区划分,欧洲、美国和日本市场收入分别增长35%、15%和31%。日本以外的亚洲市场收入表现和2021年持平,但在整体收入中仍然占比最大,为30%。截至2022年12月,LVMH集团收入增长至792亿欧元(约合人民币5849亿元)营业利润增长至211亿欧元(约合人民币1558亿元)净利润增长至141亿欧元(约合人民币1030亿元)北京时间1月26日,LVMH集团发布2022年财务报告23%8埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH奢侈品代购产业将会没落?02虽然关于全球奢侈品市场的有税和免税渠道的销售额和市场规模没有官方统计的可信数据,但从2022年LVMH的财报中我们可以略知一二,免税业务为LVMH所带来的收入贡献不超过20%。LVMH的免税零售业务由DFS旅行免税集团负责运营及管理,DFS因此也属于LVMH集团选择性零售分销渠道中的一个贡献主体。DFS在全球各地都设有分点,占据超过13家机场和54家免税店。在LVMH集团2022年的792亿欧元收入中,选择性零售占比不超过2成,为18.8%,收入为148.5亿欧元。可以看出,有税零售渠道是LVMH这类奢侈品集团及品牌的主要收入来源。时装和皮具部门实现创纪录的收入。该部门收入同比上升46%至308.96亿欧元,其中路易威登年收入首次突破200亿欧元占集团总收入的近一半。特别是Louis Vuitton、Christian Dior、Fendi、Celine和Loewe,均实现了创纪录的收入和盈利水平。其中,Christian Dior高级定制的所有产品类别都实现了强劲增长。香水及化妆品部门维持现有选择的分销政策,香水和化妆品部门以及手表和珠宝部门在年内收入分别增长17%和18%。得益于2022年全球旅游业的逐步恢复,包括DFS连锁免税店在内的精品零售部门收入增幅达到26%,但是由于去年疫情中国内地国内和国际出行收到限制,香港和澳门地区DFS变现不佳。香水出现了强烈回升,护肤品发展迅速,销售额比去年同期上升了26%到66.08亿欧元。在一些销售点不定时倒闭的情况下,LVMH的选择是维持选择性分销政策,约束促销活动,并且加强官网在线销售。钟表珠宝部门的自有门店走强回升,得益于Tiffany去年首次合并业绩,该部门的营收同比飙升167%到89.64亿欧元,Tiffany的收入中、利润、现金流等指标均创历史新高。New DFS Wines and Spirits Store at Changi Airport Terminal 4 2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.9奢侈品代购产业将会没落?02奢侈品代购的灰色市场到底有多大?在全球范围内,中国是最大的奢侈品市场之一,对于奢侈品消费的热情同样也造就了导致我国成为代奢侈品购市场的主要来源地之一。从全球来看,2019年全球奢侈品代购市场规模约为1110亿美元,中国消费者通过代购渠道购买的奢侈品销售额约为520亿美元左右,占全球奢侈品代购市场近五成,是全球最大的奢侈品代购市场。奢侈品代购产业作为一个“灰色”市场一直保持着持续增长,但自2019年以后,随着奢侈品品牌对于代购的管控力度的加强(限购、实名制、个人额度等)以及政府监管(征税等)的助力,全球奢侈品代购市场规模开始逐渐减小。截止2022年,全球奢侈品代购市场的市场规模已经下降至680亿美元左右,相较于最高值降幅约为38.1%,可以看出对于奢侈品代购市场的整治力度在近几年有了明显成效。2019-2022全球奢饰品代购市场规模变化(单位:亿美元)12001000800600400200050 001920202021202210埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH奢侈品代购产业将会没落?02除了奢侈品品牌方和监管部门对于代购行为的打压,为了满足消费者需求,从更深层次解决代购问题,越来越多的奢侈品品牌,如LVMH旗下品牌(LV、Celine、Dior等)开始在中国内地市场推广并扩张线上销售渠道,通过提供数字平台来满足消费者购物需求。总体来看奢侈品代购市场的下降趋势于奢侈品品牌的官方销售渠道的完善相关联,国内奢侈品消费线上渠道占比从2017年的12%增长至了2022年的40%,线上销售额也从270亿元增长至2200亿元。2017-2022年中国奢饰品线上消费额(单位:亿美元)700060005000400030002000100004550 %5%0172018201920202021202212!& 23 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.11奢侈品代购产业将会没落?02奢侈品集团对于代购的打击对海外免税业务带来了不可避免的冲击韩国作为中国奢侈品代购的重要市场之一,成为了奢侈品集团打压代购产业的第一线。从2022年整体的数据可以看出,韩国免税市场的销售额同比下降了11.5%,全年仅实现了138亿美元的销售额,相比2019年实现的最高全年免税销售额的213亿美元,骤降了35.4%。这一现象的产生与品牌方对于代购的抑制脱不开联系,具体来讲是奢侈品牌方因为担心韩国免税店对于其产品过度折扣而损害整个地区的品牌价值和价格结构,通过减少产品的供应量,尤其是美容美妆类商品的供应减少,来尽量减少代购行为的产生。在2023年1月,韩国免税店的销售额同比下降了30%,仅为6.036亿美元,原因是向中国内地转售免税品的相关旅行声佣金率急剧下降,这是今年开年来韩国海关总署(KCS)对于韩国免税代购产业的15向打压措施之一,具体要求是取消于在中国大量转售货物有关的旅行社的过度佣金金额。从韩国免税品协会公布的最新数据也可以看出,韩国免税市场2023年1月月度销售额同比下降了41%,受影响较为严重的品类为化妆品,因为该品类在2022年占全韩国免税市场总销售额的7成以上。打击代购业务对于奢侈品集团利润率和销售额也同样会带来不少的打击,但是就像如LVMH首席 财务官Jean-Jacques Guiony所说:“彻底整治奢侈品代购市场是一个代价高昂的决定,通过减少供货和限制购买数量,必将会导致盈利能力和利润率下降,这需要通过欧洲和美国当地市场的活力来帮助抵消。即使有代价,但从长远来看,是对我们维护品牌价值和吸引力必须采取的措施。”2022年LVMH由于终止代购业务其香水和美妆部门年度利润减少了3%。Jean-Jacques GuionyLVMH首席财务官12埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH03全球以及中国奢侈品消费市场近年来表现如何?Recent Trends in Global and Chinese Luxury Goods Consumption Markets全球奢侈品市场依旧坚韧,中国境内奢侈品销售额反超境外从全球奢侈品市场规模的变化看来,2022年全球奢侈品销售额达到了3126亿美元,其中占比最大的是时尚类奢侈品,紧随其后的是珠宝&手表类以及皮具类奢侈品。全球奢侈品市场也在过去三年疫情中受到影响,2020年全球奢侈品销售额同比下降了15.1%,但在2021年就已经恢复至疫情前水平96.4%,并且在去年(2022年)超越疫情前水平。在市场份额划分中,LVMH一家独大,占据全球奢侈品市场份额近15%,LOral(欧莱雅集团)、Kering(开云集团)、Este Lauder(雅诗兰黛)占据相似市场份额,分别约5%左右。2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.13全球以及中国奢侈品消费市场近年来表现如何?0335030025020015010050020182019202020212022286.11305.46259.14294.18312.632018-2022年全球奢侈品市场规模(按品类划分;单位:10亿美元)2022年全球奢侈品市场份额划分LVHMLOralKeringEste LauderLOralLVHMKeringEste Lauder国内而言,在刚刚过去的2022年,中国奢侈品市场最终销售额为9560亿元,虽然同比2021年略微下滑约4%,但在全球奢侈品市场占比仍高达38%。从近10年国内奢侈品消费市场的演变趋势可以看出,中国人境外奢侈品消费额在2019年以后明显下滑,反而境内奢侈品消费额大幅增长,并在2021年甚至实现翻倍。其中的原因可能为:1、疫情导致国内消费者出境旅游受限;2、近两年来中国境内奢侈品免税业务的兴起(以海南离岛免税为例);3、境内有税电商平台为消费者提供“足不出户”的购物渠道(以中免cdf线上商城为例)。14埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH全球以及中国奢侈品消费市场近年来表现如何?03中国消费者向来是全球奢侈品市场的主要玩家之一。自2018年以来,中国个人奢侈品市场占全球个人奢侈品市场的比例持续走高。相较于2019年,2022年个人中国奢侈品市场规模近乎翻倍。在2019-2020年年复合增长率(CAGR)甚至到达了近45%,2020-2021年由于全球疫情影响年复合增长有所减缓但也维持在36%左右。预计,在2021-2025年中国奢侈品市场复合增长率13%的基础下,2025年中国个人奢侈品市场规模将达到8160亿元人民币,占据全球市场份额的25%,成为全球个人奢侈品体量最大的玩家。10000800060004000200001.510.5-0.50-1201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022154%3%3%7$.7E7%-15%-11 11-2022年中国奢侈品销售额及增长率中国占全球奢侈品市场比重100 %0 1820192020202120222025E2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.1504疫情三年,国内离岛 免税狂飙突进Three-Year Pandemic:A Surge in Domestic Offshore Duty-Free Market16埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH疫情三年,国内离岛免税狂飙突进04疫情间国内免税市场重新洗牌,离岛免税扛起大旗我国免税市场在2019年疫情前达到了超越500亿的市场份额,其中口岸免税店占据了7成左右的份额,离岛免税店占据了2-3成,RHS保持在30%左右。2019年年底疫情的发生影响了国内免税市场的市场份额,2020年同比2019年骤降34.3%,从501亿元降至329亿元。疫情不仅导致免税市场规模减少,我国免税市场中各个板块占比也产生了变化,这极大程度归咎于疫情期间旅客国际出行受到限制,我们在2020年和2021年国内免税市场各渠道的占比中看到,离岛免税店的占比极速增加,2019到2021的年复合增长率达到了83%左右。2019年口岸免税店是我国免税市场的最主要消费场景,但到了2022年,由于疫情导致国际出行受限,离岛免税业务成为了主要玩家,在2021和2022年离岛免税业务占据国内免税市场规模90%以上。600500400300200100060 %0%-20%-40 1720182019202020212993815013294612017-2021年中国免税市场份额(单位:亿元)2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.17疫情三年,国内离岛免税狂飙突进04免税市场占比在疫情期间得到洗牌,离岛免税扛起国内免税业务大旗。海南离岛免税市场近三年的发展历程中同样可以看出这一现象,海南离岛免税市场规模从2018年的101亿元飙升至2021年的495亿元,净增幅达到了近4倍,海南离岛免税的购物人数也从2018年的288万人,增长至2021年的672万人,增幅达到了133%。在2022年,受疫情影响,海南免税销售额约为350亿元人民币,同比下降30%左右,客流量减少是销售额下降的主要原因,在2022年海南免税购物人数减少了35%,但购物者人均消费额增长了8%,略微抵消了下滑产生的影响。2018-2022年海南离岛免税销售额及同比变化2018-2022年海南离岛免税购物人数及同比变化600400500300200100020182019202020212022120%0%-40&53.7.1%-30060040020002018201920202021202260P%0%-100 %-20%-30%-50%-40 3P%-36埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH疫情三年,国内离岛免税狂飙突进04从我国境内个人奢侈品销售额及海南免税店占比关系可以看出,海南免税个人奢侈品销售额对于国内整体销售额的占比越来越高,从2018年的6%增长至2021年的11%,从102亿元增长至518亿元,可以看出海南免税业务在过去三年不仅在国内整体免税销售额中的占比与体量在不断增长,个人奢侈品销售额方面也在不断增加。50004500400035003000250020001500500100002018201920202021202212%8%6%4%2%0 18-2022年中国境内个人奢侈品销售额及海南免税店占比(单位:亿元)2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.19疫情三年,国内离岛免税狂飙突进04由于疫情的到来,国际出入境客流受限,中免集团从2020年也开始通过大力推广境内电商业务来抵消航空旅行限制造成的影响。2019年中免集团国内有税业务收入仅占全集团收入的2%,到2022年这一比例已经上升至40%,境内有税业务收入从2019年的9.6亿元上涨至2021年峰值的244亿元,涨幅达到了惊人的24.4倍。得益于中免境内电商平台的存在以及有税业务的兴起(“日上”和“CDF会员购”),不仅帮助集团成功度过了三年疫情的寒冬,并且还创造了新收入来源。2022年中免有税业务收入占比约为40%,虽然由于疫情原因全年业务营收较去年有所下降,但境内电商业务实现了5%的同比增长。2019-2022中免集团免税及有税业务收入(单位:亿元)800700600500400300100200020192020202120224550% %0%286 埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH05彻底清除奢侈品代购对国内有何影响?Impact of Eliminating Luxury Goods Daigou on the Domestic Market2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.21彻底清除奢侈品代购对国内有何影响?05打压奢侈品代购将会对三种市场带来利好从LVMH和Chanel等全球奢侈品集团和品牌对代购的遏制决心和打压力度看来,未来全球奢侈品代购市场将无不避免的收缩。从韩国奢侈品免税市场2022年以及刚刚过去的2023年1月的销售额数据可以看出,代购的收入在大幅下降,这也证明了对奢侈品代购行为打击小有成效。对于代购的彻底清除同样我国奢侈品市场具有深远的意义。首先,由于今年年初出境游海外游的完全放开,出境游海外游热度居高不下,国内奢侈品免税市场必将在今年再度迎来春天,国内大型国际机场的免税商业收入或将在今年实现反弹。由于出行的不受限制,曾经选择代购渠道的消费者,有可能因为自由出行而选择自己亲自去海外游玩顺带购买自己青睐的奢侈品商品。第二,海南离岛免税在疫情期间成为了消费者购买奢侈品、以较为优惠的价格购买免税品的不二之选。虽然在2022年由于全国疫情零星爆发,海南离岛免税销售额有所下降,但从产业占比上来看离岛免税已经占据了中国免税市场的超过8成的销售额贡献(详见上文)。在奢侈品集团对代购行为的打压下,海南离岛免税或再度迎来新增长契机,来弥补原本选择代购渠道购买商品的需求。当然,是否能完全捕获海外代购的市场份额,还需要关注商品价格相比代购是否具有优势、货源是否充足、品类是否新颖等。最后,国内正规奢侈品有税销售渠道也将会迎来更多来自消费者的需求。国内奢侈品专柜、购物中心店铺、以及中免线上平台将会是主要迎来收入新增长的消费场景。代购渠道的阻断势必会导致一部分消费者不得不采取国内的正规渠道买到心仪的奢侈品。然而,对于奢侈品有税销售渠道来说,尽可能占据更多的消费场景,进一步部署或加强线上线下运营会是关键。疫情期间人们盯着手机屏幕的时间占比大幅增加,这从一定程度上推动了中国消费市场数字化程度,越来越多的消费者开始采取线上消费模式,足不出户即可满足消费需求。奢侈品市场也不例外,2022年中国奢侈品线上销售额达到了2200亿元,占总消费比例的40%。在出行不再受限的2023年,线下购物体验将迎来反弹,线下门店将依旧是奢侈品品牌建设和购买转化的首要渠道,并且相较于疫情期间会有更大销售增速。与此同时,许多奢侈品营销和消费者运营活动已逐步转移至线上,并且线上消费的普及度不断增加。因此线上线下融合,齐头并进,将会是奢侈品品牌在2023年实现营收增长的重点。22埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH彻底清除奢侈品代购对国内有何影响?05奢侈品集团逐渐将机场零售业务的主动权握在自己手中在遏制代购对于奢侈品和免税市场带来的消极影响方面,韩国免税市场是受代购影响的重灾区,近两年来LVMH正在逐渐关闭开设于韩国市中心的免税店铺,并将重心放在机场内的免税业务,并将加大在机场内部开设品牌自营店铺的投入。在2022年年初Louis Vuitton(LV)宣布,计划在2023年三月之前关闭所有在韩国城市市中心所开设的免税店铺。目前,已关闭的市中心免税店铺包括,济州岛乐天免税店、济州岛新罗免税店、釜山乐天免税店和首尔乐天世界大厦店。韩国剩余的三家市内免税店(乐天免税店、新罗免税店和首尔新世界免税店)的关店计划也在进行中。LVMH的这一决定一方面是为了应对代购对于品牌形象的影响,并且对于旅行零售行业更加重要的是LV决定将发展重心放置于机场的免税店铺中,并且对中国国内机场免税市场抱有极大信心,将大力发展其在中国国内航班机场的免税业务。以韩国机场为例,LV取消其在韩国市中心免税店业务的决定并未波及其在韩国仁川国际机场的业务,仁川机场1号航站楼的LV店铺维持运营,并且LV表示将于2023年年底在仁川机场开设另外一家LV直营店。不仅是LVMH奢侈品集团,香奈儿(Chanel)也在逐渐扩张其在机场的零售业务。在2022年,Chanel在巴黎戴高乐机场开设了两家新店,分别发售美妆和成衣、手袋、手表和珠宝等精品,毗邻LV、Di-or、Celine和Saint Laurent等奢侈品牌机场店。根据巴黎戴高乐机场的数据显示,2022年机场整体客流恢复至疫情前水平的80.2%,下半年的恢复情况略好于2022年上半年,在去年12月,巴黎戴高乐机场的旅客人数已恢复到2019年水平的93%。疫情过后机场客流的回暖为奢侈品加大机场零售业务的投入提供了充足的信心。2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.23彻底清除奢侈品代购对国内有何影响?05离岛免税或再度迎来发展契机?以LVMH奢侈品集团为首的全球奢侈品集团对于代购行为的打压,最终的结果将是海外免税销售额不可避免的下降。由于中国国内奢侈品代购市场占据全球代购市场的近5成,对于代购行为的抑制,只能减少我国居民境外奢侈品的消费体量,但是消费需求还是客观存在的。从上文对中国奢侈品境外与境内消费趋势以及全球奢奢侈品代购市场变化的观察中可以发现,我国奢侈品代购市场规模的减少与境内奢侈品消费规模的增长完全对应。这意味着中国消费者在疫情这三年原本通过代购实现的消费需求被转移至了在国内进行奢侈品消费,且线上渠道越来越受消费者青睐。根据相关资料显示,在2022年,前2%的富裕消费者负责全球40%的奢侈品销售,在2022年我国拥有净资产1000万元的高端消费者仅占人口的千分之三,但是却贡献了奢侈品消费市场82%的销售额,可见中国人仍然是全球奢侈品消费的最重要力量。中国中高收入消费者数量201420222030F24埃尔坡研究 AIRPO RESEARCH彻底清除奢侈品代购对国内有何影响?05为了根治代购问题,LVMH等奢侈品集团都将继续加大市场投资,通过扩大免税店业务、加强品牌营销和提升产品品质等方式,减少代购渠道对品牌的影响。扩大免税店业务可以让中国消费者更加方便地购买奢侈品,从而减少代购者的存在。同时,提升品牌营销和产品品质可以提高消费者的忠诚度,减少他们选择代购的可能性。在未来,随着奢侈品品牌对于代购的持续打压,中国内地奢侈品消费者的消费需求则需要另寻渠道来得到满足。从今年境内免税市场的发展变化可以看出,离岛免税几乎已经霸占了全部的境内免税市场,那么奢侈品代购的市场需求能否转移至离岛免税市场中?根据相关资料显示,海南离岛免税奢侈品美妆的单位标价一般相较于官方标价低30-55%左右,占中国奢侈品美妆销售总额的25%。消费者寻找代购的原因是价格“诱人”,海南离岛免税标价相较于品牌官方标价也是低了不少,未来海外奢侈品代购市场份额被不断纳入国内离岛免税中也不是不可能。25 23 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.25Reference参考资料1.LVMH,2022 Annual 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Post-Pandemic?,(2021/04/08).2023/03/13.https:/AIRPO RESEARCH12.The Moodie Davitt Report,LVMH posts record year for revenue and profits;DFS spurred by Macau re-bound,(2023/01/26).2023/03/13.https:/Moodie Davitt Report,Bernard Arnault slams duty free daigou trade and expresses optimism in Chinese travelling shopper rebound,(2023/01/27).2023/03/13.https:/Moodie Davitt Report,COVID impact hits China Tourism Group Duty Free 2022 results but out-look looks promising,(2023/02/06).2023/03/13.https:/Future of Luxury:Bouncing Back from Covid-19,(2021/01/14).2023/03/13.https:/Korea Herald,Louis Vuitton to shut downtown duty-free shops in Korea,(2022/01/17).2023/03/13.http:/17.The Moodie Davitt Report,COVID impact hits China Tourism Group Duty Free 2022 results but out-look looks promising,(2022/02/06).2023/03/13.https:/consumers spent$73.6 billion on luxury goods at home last year,up 36%from 2020,(2022/01/24).2023/03/13.https:/19.JING DAILY,Bain Report:China To Make Up 40%Of Luxury Consumers By 2030,(2023/11/23).2023/03/13.https:/Potential Luxury Market In Chinese Mainland,(2022/04/04).2023/03/13.https:/21.China Macro Economy,Explainer|Chinas luxury goods market:how big is it,and what impact has the coronavirus pandemic had?,(2021/11/06).2023/03/13.https:/22.中国国际进口博览会,2025年中国或成全球最大奢侈品市场,(2022/01/26).2023/03/13.https:/www.ciie.org/zbh/bqxwbd/20220126/31532.html#:text=贝恩公司的研究,进一步上升至90%以上。2023 AIRPO.All Rights Researved.2723.Sina新浪时尚,要客研究院发布2022中国奢侈品报告中国奢侈品牌市场首次出现负增长,(2023/02/16).2023/03/13.https:/24.巴黎奢管,聚焦:新冠疫情下的全球奢侈品行业,(2020/04/01).2023/03/13.https:/25.BoF时装商业评论,中欧奢侈品代购的生意要凉透了吗?没那么简单,(2020/10/13).2023/03/13.https:/26.BoF时装商业评论,一文读懂奢侈品代购经济,(2020/10/15).2023/03/13.https:/27.贝壳财经,中国九成奢侈品消费需求仍在国内,路威酩轩:不考虑涉足二奢市场,(2023/03/06).2023/03/13.https:/28.精奢商业观察,打击中国代购,品牌注定是输家吗?,(2023/03/03).2023/03/13.https:/29.门道Fashion,消失”的代购,对奢侈品市场影响有多大?,(2023/03/03).2023/03/13.https:/30.腾讯网,奢侈品集团2022年度业绩观察:涨价潮之后,收效几何?,(2023/02/28).2023/03/13.https:/31.2021年全球奢侈品力量,https:/INDICATORS,https:/STATEMENT,https:/r.lvmh-OF THE FRENCH,https:/r.lvmh-2022 revenue,https:/r.lvmh-half 2022 results,https:/r.lvmh-AIRPO RESEARCH37.LVMH,TRANSLATION OF THE FRENCH,https:/r.lvmh-ANNUAL REPORT,https:/r.lvmh-STATEMENT,https:/r.lvmh-RESULTS 2020,https:/r.lvmh-ANNAUL REPORT,https:/r.lvmh-OF THE FRENCH,https:/r.lvmh-RESULTS 2019,https:/r.lvmh-2023年3月22日 本报告由上海埃尔坡商业管理有限公司(简称埃尔坡商业,英文名:AIRPO Commerce Management Co.,Ltd,Shanghai)与上海埃尔坡数字科技有限公司(简称埃尔坡科技,英文名:AIRPO Digital Technology Co.,Ltd,Shanghai)共同完成。本报告仅为提供一般性信息之目的,不应用于代替专业咨询者提供的咨询意见。本公司研究报告以合法获得的我们相信为可靠、准确、完整的信息为基础,报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次发布时本公司的判断,可能需随时进行调整且不予通知。本公司提供给被授权机构研究报告与统一外发的研究报告一致,被授权机构可根据相关协议授权,以约定方式进行刊载或者转发,但不得修改研究报告任何内容(包含:图表、配图、数据和作者等),不得断章取义或歪曲原意,不得将研究报告向许可范围之外扩散,被授权机构应承担相关刊载或者转发责任。本册著作权归埃尔坡公司和埃尔坡研究中心联合所有,未经埃尔坡公司允许不得分发与转载。COMPANY PROFILEAIRPO is an international airport-focused professional organization,with the concept of“Global perspective.Airport practice.”,focusing on two areas of digital transformation and capitalization strategy,we are committed to providing integrated solutions for the airport industry from strategy to execution.AIRPO Digital Technology(AIRPO D)leverages AIRPOs deep industry experience and expertise in the airport sector to provide innovative,cutting-edge technology and flexible models to build and operate digital platforms for service and consumption for Chinese passengers at airports around the world,helping clients achieve sustainable,predictable and quantifiable real performance Growth.埃尔坡AIRPO是一个专注于机场的国际化专业机构,秉持“全局视角机场实践”的理念,聚焦数字化转型和资本化战略两大领域,我们致力于为行业提供从战略到执行的一体化解决方案。埃尔坡数字科技(AIRPO Digital Technology,简称AIRPO D)借助埃尔坡AIRPO在机场领域深厚的行业经验与专业知识,以创新精神、前沿技术与灵活模式为全球机场提供面向中国旅客的服务及消费数字化平台建设和运营服务,帮助客户实现可持续、可预测、可量化的真实业绩增长。关于埃尔坡18917702113infoairpo.co埃尔坡、机场商业评论上海市黄浦区茂名南路205号瑞金大厦1702室2023 The Reports AIRPO Research
2022 年度中国营商环境研究报告中国贸促会贸易投资促进部中国贸促会研究院编辑委员会会世贝委进促回刃臼川A位际单国办国主中编篡部门中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部中国国际贸易促进委员会研究院总编辑李庆霜中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部部长史冬立中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部二级巡视员刘英奎中国国际贸易促进委员会研究院副院长执行编辑谢睿哲 中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部投资促进处处长马磊 中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部投资促进处副处长袁芳 中国国际贸易促进委员会贸易投资促进部投资促进处副处长项目统筹刘英奎谢睿哲马磊袁芳王建军刘彦辰张红阳撰稿刘英奎敦志刚李暖秦邦旋蔡孟玉校对李竣秦邦援黄玲妹1前言一、研究背景和意义优化营商环境是中国政府根据新形势新发展新要求作出的重大决策部署。习近平总书记在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会报告中强调,要完善产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、社会信用等市场经济基础制度,优化营商环境。2022 年政府工作报告继续提出,要围绕打造市场化法治化国际化营商环境,持续推进“放管服”改革。近年来,尽管面对疫情冲击、经济下行压力增大等不利因素,中国优化营商环境工作仍取得了一定成效。国家税务总局数据显示,2022 年前 5个月,全国新办涉税市场主体 554.7 万户,同比增长 6.2%。国家统计局最新数据显示,2022 年前三季度国内生产总值约 87 万亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长 3.0%,比上半年加快 0.5 个百分点;分产业看,第一、二、三产业分别同比增长 4.2%、3.9%、2.3%。目前,全球疫情仍在持续,世界经济复苏动力不足,大宗商品价格高位波动,外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定。中国经济发展则面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力,消费和投资恢复迟缓,稳出口难度增大,中小微企业、个体工商户生产经营困难等问题。因此,进一步优化营商环境、激发市场活力,仍是当前需要持续关注的重大问题,营造一流营商环境任务艰巨、意义重大。为充分发挥贸促系统资源优势,协助有关部门优化营商环境,中国贸促会贸易投资促进部(以下简称“促进部”)、贸促会研究院(以下简称“研究院”)自 2016 年起连续六年开展中国投资(营商)环境调查、发布年度报告。在此基础上,2022 年课题组继续开展营商环境调研及报告编制工作,旨在密切跟踪、分析中国营商环境变化,全面客观反映营商环境建设成就及存在的问题,并研提意见建议,进一步激发企业创造力和市场活力,促进经济社会稳定健康发展。2二、研究方法本课题研究综合运用问卷调查、实地调研、企业座谈、对比分析及文献分析等方法。(一)问卷调查(一)问卷调查2022 年 5-9 月,中国贸促会促进部与研究院联合地方贸促会、行业分会及中国贸促会自贸试验区服务中心,组织开展 2022 年度中国营商环境企业问卷(详见附件)调查工作,共回收问卷 7657 份,其中线上收集 5372 份,线下收集 2285 份,江西、湖北、广西、甘肃、山西、福建、湖南收集问卷均超过 300 份。通过企业问卷调查,课题组获取了不同地区、行业及所有制企业的相关数据,为开展全国性营商环境分析与评价提供了客观数据支撑。(二)实地调研(二)实地调研2022 年 4-9 月,课题组分赴云南、江西、江苏等地调研,实地走访了江西南昌高新技术产业园、江苏自贸区南京片区等超 20 个园区,与 700 余家企业开展座谈,得到了各地政府、协会、园区管委会和企业的大力支持。课题组与园区管委会成员以及企业代表面对面深入交流,从不同角度了解到各地营商环境现状、成就及问题,与企业调查问卷信息相互印证、相互补充,为全面、客观评价中国营商环境提供了支持。(三)线上座谈(三)线上座谈2022 年 4-9 月,为在做好疫情防控的同时稳步推进中国营商环境调研工作,课题组联合广西、湖北贸促会举行线上营商环境调研,与超 200 家企业进行座谈,掌握了丰富的一手资料。(四)对比分析(四)对比分析课题组选取 2022 年中国营商环境相关数据与 2021 年进行横向、纵向比较研究,从而获得不同地区、不同行业(传统制造业、高技术产业、资源行业、建筑业、服务业等)及不同性质企业(国有及国有3控股企业、私营企业、中外合资合作企业、外商独资企业等)间的动态变化状况,深入了解不同地区、行业和企业间营商环境差异、特点与趋势,推广各地优化营商环境经验模式,促进各地互学互鉴、共同提高。(五)文献分析(五)文献分析课题组对国内外文献资料进行搜集梳理,查阅世界银行、联合国贸发大会等国际组织、国家发展改革委、商务部、国家市场监管总局及国家统计局等部委在优化营商环境方面的资料。此外,江西、广西、湖北、甘肃、天津等地贸促会及地方贸促支会也提供了营商环境相关资料,进一步丰富了报告内容。三、评价指标在参照 2021 年中国贸促会营商环境评价指标体系、借鉴吸收世界银行营商环境评价指标的基础上,课题组结合本年度实际情况,完善了 2022 年度中国营商环境评价指标体系及相应企业调查问卷。经过反复论证分析,2022 年度中国营商环境评价指标体系由 12个一级指标和 48 个二级指标组成。各一级指标由二级指标加权平均得出(表 0-1),综合评价由企业一级指标取算数平均得出。12 个一级指标包括基础设施环境、生活服务环境、政策政务环境、社会信用环境、公平竞争环境、社会法治环境、科技创新环境、人力资源环境、金融服务环境、财税服务环境、海关服务环境以及企业设立和退出环境。表表 0-10-12022022 2 年度中国营商环境普遍调查评价指标及其权重设置年度中国营商环境普遍调查评价指标及其权重设置一级指标(一级指标(1212 个)个)二级指标(二级指标(4848 个)和企业自主填写指标(个)和企业自主填写指标(1111 个)个)基础设施环境交通运输(1/5)网络通信(1/5)环保设施(1/5)水电气供应(1/5)城市规划和建设(1/5)生活服务环境居住条件(1/6)医疗卫生(1/6)文体设施(1/6)教育水平(1/6)环境保护(1/6)社会治安(1/6)政策政务环境政策公平性(1/5)政府服务效率(1/5)政策执行力度(1/5)官员廉洁程度(1/5)可预见性(1/5)4社会信用环境失信惩戒、守信奖励机制建设(1/3)政府信用度(1/3)征信体系建设(1/3)公平竞争环境市场监管(1/5)行政垄断治理(2/5)政府采购(1/5)市场准入(1/5)社会法治环境人大立法与法律监督(1/6)政府依法行政(1/6)法院按期审结案件(1/6)仲裁院按期审结案件(1/6)法院判决与仲裁裁决执行(1/6)知识产权保护(1/6)科技创新环境研发抵扣政策实施(1/5)知识产权抵押(1/5)产学研结合(1/5)创业孵化服务(1/5)公共服务平台建设(1/5)企业自主填写指标(企业自主填写指标(2 2 个):个):企业科技研发投入、知识产权办理周期人力资源环境熟练劳动力的可获得性(1/4)中高层管理人员的可获得性(1/4)社会专业化人才的可获得性(1/4)创新创业人才的可得性(1/4)企业自主填写指标企业自主填写指标(2 2 个个):人工成本占总成本比重;人工成本年均上涨幅度金融服务环境融资便利性(1/2)融资渠道多元化(1/2)企业自主填写指标企业自主填写指标(2 2 个个):融资成本占总成本比重;融资成本年均上涨幅度财税服务环境财税执法规范性(1/2)申退税办理时间(1/2)企业自主填写指标企业自主填写指标(5 5 个个):税费缴纳次数、税费缴纳耗时、总费率、总税率、出口退税到账时间海关服务环境货物通关(1/3)检验检疫(1/3)人员出入境(1/3)企业设立和退出环境土地获取(1/3)环保手续(1/3)破产手续办理(1/3)5四、受访企业构成(一)七成以上受访企业为私营企业(一)七成以上受访企业为私营企业本次调研中,76.3%的受访企业是私营企业;国有及国有控股企业(以下简称国有企业)及其他所有制企业占比均约为 7.2%;外商独资企业占 5.4%;中外合资合作企业占 4.0%。(二(二)传统制造业企业占三分之一传统制造业企业占三分之一33.2%的受访企业来自传统制造业;21.2%来自服务行业;11.3%来自高新技术产业;3.3%来自建筑业;2.6%来自资源行业;29.6%来自其他行业。(三)小微企业占比近七成(三)小微企业占比近七成68.4%的受访企业规模在 100 人及以下,属小微企业;22.4%规模在 100500人;6.8%规模在 5002000 人;2.5%规模在 2000 人及以上,属超大型企业。(四)近七成受访企业持续经营超(四)近七成受访企业持续经营超五年五年5.6%的受访企业为开办不足一年的新企业;14.1%连续经营 13 年;12%连续经营 35 年;68.3%经营时间在 5年以上。6五、主要结论(一)(一)2022 年企业对中国营商环境整体评价良好年企业对中国营商环境整体评价良好当前,世界形势更趋复杂严峻和不确定,中国发展面临的风险挑战明显增多。2022 年,党中央和国务院统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展,统筹发展和安全,继续做好“六稳”“六保”工作,持续改善民生,着力稳定宏观经济大盘,保持经济运行在合理区间。2022 年中国营商环境评价为 4.38 分,与 2021 年持平。在 12 个一级指标中,6 个指标评价较 2021 年有所提高,1 个持平,5 个下降。其中,社会信用环境评价最高,其次是财税服务环境、社会法治环境、海关服务环境和公平竞争环境;金融服务环境、人力资源环境评价相对较低。中部地区、中外合资合作企业及资源行业评价较高。双循环新格局和”一带一路“高质量发展为西部地区带来了巨大发展机遇,在政府、有关服务机构以及广大企业的共同努力下,2022 年中国西部地区营商环境评价提升显著。2022 年,新冠疫情影响持续扩大,近九成企业受到疫情不同程度消极影响,收入同比增长的企业较 2021 年降低 13.2 个百分点。47%的企业反映供应链受影响,半数已采取或可能采取缩减开支、调整经营策略的措施应对疫情冲击。尽管生产经营面临诸多困难,但仅有7%的企业对未来发展持“悲观”态度。为尽可能减少疫情影响,超六成企业希政府能提供疫情补贴和加大税收减免力度,帮助企业度过难关。与此同时,2022 年有超七成企业实现收入增长。“利用本地资源”和“开拓市场”是企业本年度开展投资的主因。“成本提高”和“市场竞争激烈”是企业生产经营中遇到的主要问题。企业盼政府进一步优化政策政务环境,引进上下游配套和商贸物流企业,助力企业恢复生产经营秩序。(二)中国营商环境持续优化(二)中国营商环境持续优化7一是营商环境创新改革“从点到面”。一是营商环境创新改革“从点到面”。2022 年 10 月,党中央国务院决定在全国范围内复制推广一批营商环境创新试点改革举措,“从点到面”扩大改革效果,推动全国营商环境整体改善。二是法治化营商环境日趋完善。二是法治化营商环境日趋完善。2022 年,各立法、司法、执法机关多措并举,从完善法律体系、提高知识产权保护水平,维护市场公平与健康发展等方面推进法治化营商环境建设。三是全国统一大市场逐渐形成。三是全国统一大市场逐渐形成。2022 年 4 月,党中央国务院提出加快建设全国统一大市场。各地各部门出台了相关规范措施,跨区跨部门的制度性交易成本逐渐降低,市场壁垒逐步打破。四是外资企业在华投资信心不断增强。四是外资企业在华投资信心不断增强。稳外资是扩大对外开放的重要抓手,党中央国务院先后出台多项文件政策帮助外资企业纾难解困。此外,贸促会设立服务外资企业工作专班,进一步坚定外企扎根中国信心底气。五是全方位助力科技创新。五是全方位助力科技创新。习近平总书记指出,科技是第一生产力,创新是第一动力。2022 年,中国加强顶层制度创新引领,健全科技成果转化机,提高财税扶持力度,不断激活企业创新活力。9第一章中国营商环境总体评价调查问卷显示,受访企业对2022年中国营商环境整体评分为4.38分,与 2021 年持平。四成以上受访企业对中国营商环境“非常满意”,超六成认为近三年营商环境有所改善。一、营商环境评价总体良好(一(一)四四成以上受访企业对营商环成以上受访企业对营商环境境“非常非常满意满意”受访企业对中国营商环境总体满意度较高,评价“非常满意”的占42.89%;“比较满意”的占 53.57%;“一般”的占 3.49%;仅 0.05%认为中国营商环境“较差”。(二(二)六六成受访成受访企业认为企业认为近三年近三年营商环境有所改善营商环境有所改善认为近三年中国营商环境“有很大改善”的受访企业占 30.81%;认为“有一些改善”的占 33.19%;9.59%认为“没有改善”;26.4%认为“恶化”(包括“严重恶化”和“有所恶化”),该比例高于 2021 年(6.2%)。(三)(三)受访企业对中国营商环境整体评价受访企业对中国营商环境整体评价“良好良好”,社会信用指社会信用指标标评价评价最最高高受访企业对 2022 年中国营商环境评价为 4.38 分,与 2021 年持平,达到良好水平。其中,社会信用指标评价最高,为 4.53 分;财注:本报告第一章、第二章、第三章中涉及的数据,主要来源于 2022 年度中国贸促会组织的营商环境企业问卷调查。10税服务(4.52 分)和社会法治(4.50 分)指标评价达到优秀水平。人力资源指标评价最低,为 4.06 分,其次是金融服务指标,为 4.11 分。受访企业对 2022 年中国营商环境整体评价与 2021 年持平。12个一级指标中,6 个指标评价有所提高,其中企业设立和退出指标评价提高幅度最大,为 0.07 分;其次是基础设施(提高 0.05 分)和社会信用(提高 0.02 分)指标;科技创新、人力资源指标评价均提高0.02 分;财税服务指标评价与 2021 年持平。二、中部地区评价最高,西部地区评价提升多分地区来看,中部地区受访企业营商环境评价最高(4.47 分);西部地区评价居中(4.32 分);东部地区评价最低(4.31 分)。与 2021 年相比,2022 年西部地区营商环境评价提高 0.14 分;东部、中部地区受到新冠疫情等客观因素影响较大,营商环境评价负增长,分别下降 0.25 分、0.02分。三、中外合资合作企业评价最高,私营企业评价最低分所有制看,中外合资合作企业对中国营商环境评价最高,为114.51 分;私营企业评价最低,为 4.32 分。外商独资企业、其他所有制企业和国有企业评价居中,分别为 4.47分、4.41 分和 4.36 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年其他所有制企业评价提高 0.21 分;其次是外商独资企业(提高 0.01 分);国有企业、私营企业和中外合资合作企业评价有所下降,分别降低 0.09 分、0.04 分和 0.01 分。四、资源行业评价最高,高新技术产业评价最低分行业看,资源行业对中国营商环境评价最高,为4.53 分;其次是建筑行业,为 4.46 分;高新技术行业和其他行业评价最低,均为4.32 分;传统制造业和服务行业评价居中,均为 4.36分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑行业对中国营商环境评价提高最多(提高 0.23 分);其次是资源行业和服务行业,分别提高 0.14 分和0.11 分;其他行业对中国营商环境评价下降较多(降低 0.09 分);传统制造业和高新技术产业对营商环境评价分别降低 0.07 分和 0.05分。12第二章营商环境细分指标评价中国营商环境指标评价体系主要包括基础设施、政策政务、社会信用、海关服务环境等 12 个一级指标和 48 个二级指标。企业问卷调查显示,2022 年受访企业对中国营商环境总体评价良好,6 个一级指标评价较 2021 年有所提升。一、基础设施:环保设施评价高,中部地区评价提升基础设施环境指标细分为交通运输、网络通信、水电气供应、环保设施及城市规划和建设 5 个二级指标。2022 年受访企业对基础设施环境评价为 4.40 分,较 2021 年提高 0.05 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 8。(一)(一)环保设施环保设施评价高,交通运输指标评价低评价高,交通运输指标评价低从二级指标看,环保设施指标评价最高(4.45 分),其次是水电气供应(4.42 分);交通运输指标评价最低,为4.35 分;网络通信、城市规划和建设评价居中,分别为4.41 分和 4.38 分。与 2021 年相比,交通运输指标评价提升最多(0.12 分),其次是城市规划、建设与环保设施指标,评价均提高 0.05 分;网络通信指标评价增长 0.03 分;水电气供应评价下降 0.01 分,是基础设施环境指标中唯一出现负增长的二级指标。13(二)中部地区评价高(二)中部地区评价高,东,东部地区评价负增长部地区评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对基础设施指标评价最高,为 4.52 分,较 2021 年提高 0.08 分;西部地区为 4.46 分,较 2021 年提高 0.31分;东部地区评价为 4.43 分,较2021 年下降 0.1 分。(三)(三)中外合资合作中外合资合作企业评价较高,企业评价较高,私营私营企业评价较低企业评价较低不同所有制企业对基础设施环境评价有一定差异。其中,中外合资合作企业(4.51 分)评价最高;国有企业、外商独资企业、其他企业评价居中,均为 4.50 分;私营企业评价最低(4.46 分)。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业评价提升最多(提高 0.36 分),其次是私营企业和国有企业,均提高 0.12 分。外商独资企业和中外合资合作企业评价有所提升,分别提高 0.02 分和 0.04 分。(四(四)资源行业资源行业评价评价较高较高,高新技术产业高新技术产业评价评价较低较低分行业看,资源行业对基础设施环境评价最高,为 4.63 分;其次是建筑行业,评价为 4.57 分;14高新技术产业评价最低,为 4.41 分;服务行业、传统制造业和其他行业评价居中,分别为 4.54 分、4.46 分和 4.44 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑行业和资源行业评价提升明显,分别提高 0.37 分和 0.30 分;其次是服务行业(提高 0.27 分);高新技术产业、其他行业和传统制造业评价略有提升,分别提高 0.09 分、0.08 分、0.06 分。二、生活服务:环境保护获好评,文体设施评价较低生活服务环境指标细分为居住条件、医疗卫生、文体设施、教育水平、环境保护和社会治安 6 个二级指标。2022 年受访企业对生活服务环境总体评价为 4.30 分,较 2021 年提高 0.05 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 10。(一)(一)环境保护环境保护指标评价指标评价最高最高,文体设施指标评价较低,文体设施指标评价较低从二级指标来看,环境保护评分最高,为 4.40 分;文体设施指标评分最低,为4.23 分;居住条件、教育水平、社会治安、医疗卫生评价分别为4.32 分、4.30 分、4.27分、4.25 分。与 2021 年相比,教育水平评价提升最多(提高 0.09 分);环境保护评价提升 0.04 分;文体设施评价持平;社会治安、居住条件和医疗卫生评价均出现负增长,分别降低 0.26 分、0.04 分和 0.03 分。15(二)中部地区评价高,(二)中部地区评价高,东东部地区评价部地区评价较较低低分地区看,中部地区对生活服务环境评价较高(4.35分),但较 2021 年下降 0.08分;西部地区评价为 4.31 分,较 2021 年提高 0.17 分;东部地区评价负增长,较 2021 年下降 0.26 分,仅 4.21 分。(三)(三)其他制其他制企业评价较高,企业评价较高,国有及国有控股国有及国有控股制企业评价较低制企业评价较低从所有制角度看,其他所有制企业对生活服务环境评价最高(4.44分);外商独资企业评价较高(4.33 分)、中外合资合作企业(4.30 分)和私营企业(4.29 分)评价居中;国有企业评价最低(4.28 分)。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业对生活服务环境评价提升最多(提高 0.27 分)。中外合资合作企业、外商独资企业、国有企业和私营企业评价均负增长,分别降低 0.14 分、0.10 分、0.08 分和 0.03分。(四)(四)建筑建筑业评价较高,业评价较高,高新技术行业高新技术行业评价较低评价较低分行业看,建筑业对生活服务环境评价价最高,为 4.47 分;其次是资源行业,评价为 4.41 分;高新技术产业评价最低,为 4.24 分;服务行业、传统制造业和其他行业评价居中,分别为 4.37 分、4.28分和 4.25 分。16与 2021 年相比,建筑行业和服务行业评价提升较多,分别为 0.33 分和 0.12分;资源行业评价略有上升(提高 0.08分);传统制造业、其他行业和高新技术行业评价有所下降,分别降低 0.09 分、0.09 分和 0.05 分。三、政策政务:官员廉洁程度评价最高,西部评价提升多政策政务环境指标可细分为政策执行力度、政策公平性、政府服务效率及官员廉洁程度 4 个二级指标。2022 年受访企业对政策政务环境评价为 4.37 分,较 2021 年降低 0.08 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 9。(一(一)官员廉洁程度指标评价最高官员廉洁程度指标评价最高,政策执行力度指标评价较低政策执行力度指标评价较低从二级指标看,官员廉洁程度得分最高,为4.40 分,达到优秀水平;其次是政府服务效率指标,(4.38 分);政策执行力度和政策公平性评价也较好,分别为 4.36 分、4.37分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年四个二级指标评价均有下降,政策公平性指标下降最少(降低 0.07 分);其次是政府服务效率指标,降低0.08 分;官员廉洁程度和政策执行力度分别降低 0.12 分和 0.09 分。(二)中部地区评价最高,东部地区评价负增长(二)中部地区评价最高,东部地区评价负增长17分地区看,中部地区对政策政务环境评价最高,为4.43分,较上年降低0.12分;西部地区评价为 4.38 分,较上年提高最多(提高 0.13分);东部地区评价仅 4.28分,较上年下降 0.33 分。(三(三)外商独资外商独资、其他所有制企业评价较高其他所有制企业评价较高,国有企业评价较低国有企业评价较低从所有制角度看,外商独资企业和其他所有制企业评价最高,均为4.40 分。私营企业(4.37分)和中外合资合作企业(4.34 分)评价较高,国有企业评分最低仅 4.30分。与 2021 年相比,其它所有制企业评价提高 0.19 分,私营企业评价降低 0.07 分,外商独资企业、国有企业评价分别降低 0.12 分、0.20分,中外合资合作企业评价下降较多,较 2021 年降低 0.26 分。(四)资源行业评价较(四)资源行业评价较高,多行业评价负增长高,多行业评价负增长分行业看,资源行业对政策政务环境评价分值最高,为 4.51 分;其次是建筑业,为 4.48 分;高新技术产业评价最低,为 4.33 分;服务行业、其他行业和传统制造业18三个行业评价居中,分别为 4.40 分、4.36 分和 4.34 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑业对政策政务环境评价提升较多,提高 0.28 分;资源行业、服务行业评价略有提升,均比上年提高 0.08分;传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他行业评价负增长,分别降低0.17 分、0.14 分和 0.09 分。四、社会信用:指标评价第一,社会信用度指标评价高社会信用环境细分为社会信用度、征信体系建设及失信惩戒、守信奖励机制 3 个二级指标。2022 年受访企业对社会信用环境评价总体较好(4.53 分),在 12 个一级指标中排名第 1 位。(一(一)社会信用度指标评分高社会信用度指标评分高,失信惩戒失信惩戒、守信奖励机制建设指守信奖励机制建设指标需加强标需加强从二级指标看,社会信用度指标(4.53 分)得分最高,其次是征信体系建设(4.52 分)指标,二者均达到优秀水平;失信惩戒、守信奖励机制建设评价为 4.47分,相对较低。与 2021 年相比,2022 年征信体系建设指标评价提升最多(提高0.14 分);其次是失信惩戒、守信奖励机制建设指标(提高 0.11 分);社会信用度评价提高 0.07 分。(二)西部地区提升多,东(二)西部地区提升多,东部地区评价负增长部地区评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对社会信用环境评价最高,为 4.59 分,较上年提高 0.01 分;西部地区较19上年提高最多,评价为 4.52 分,提高 0.20 分;东部地区评价负增长,较上年下降 0.17 分,仅 4.50 分。(三)(三)中外合资合作中外合资合作企业评价最高,私营企业评价居中企业评价最高,私营企业评价居中从所有制角度看,中外合资合作企业(4.60 分)评价最高;其次是其他所有制企业(4.58 分)和外商独资企业(4.57 分);私营企业评分最低(4.52分),国有企业评价居中(4.55 分)。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业评价提升最多(提高 0.27 分),私营企业、国有企业和外商独资企业评价亦有所提高,分别提升 0.02分、0.01 分和 0.01 分。中外合资合作企业评价负增长,降低 0.05 分。(四)建筑业评价明显提高,三行业评价负增长(四)建筑业评价明显提高,三行业评价负增长分行业看,建筑业对社会信用环境评价最高,为 4.65 分;其次是资源行业和服务行业,评价分别为4.62 分和 4.57 分;高新技术产业评价最低,为 4.49 分;传统制造业和其他行业评分居中,分别为 4.53 分和 4.51 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑业和服务行业评价提升明显,分别提高 0.39 分和 0.22 分;资源行业评价略有提升,比上年提高 0.15 分;20传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他行业评价出现下降,分别降低 0.02分、0.03 分和 0.04 分。五、公平竞争:市场监管评价高,二级指标评价均提升公平竞争环境细分为市场监管、行政垄断、政府采购及市场准入4 个二级指标。受访企业对公平竞争环境总体评价良好,总体得分为4.46 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 5 位。(一(一)市场监管指标评价较高市场监管指标评价较高,政府采购政府采购、行政垄断指标评价较行政垄断指标评价较低低从二级指标看,市场监管得分最高,为 4.50 分;市场准入得分居中,为 4.48 分;政府采购和行政垄断得分较低,分别为 4.45 分、4.44 分。与 2021 年相比,政府采购和市场准入指标评价提升最多(0.03 分);其次是市场监管,提高 0.02 分;行政垄断评价提高 0.01 分。(二)中部地区评价高,(二)中部地区评价高,西部地区评价提升多西部地区评价提升多中部地区对公平竞争环境评价最高,为 4.53 分,较上年降低 0.01 分;西部地区评价较上年提高最多(提高 0.19 分),评价为 4.43 分;东部地区评价负增长,较上年下降 0.20 分,仅 4.42 分。(三(三)其他所有制企业评价提升多其他所有制企业评价提升多,国有国有、中外合资合作中外合资合作企业评企业评21价负增长价负增长从所有制角度看,中外合资合作企业,外商独资企业(4.54 分)评价较高;其次是其他所有制企业(4.50分);国有企业和私营企业评价较低,分别为 4.46 分和 4.44 分。与 2021 年相比,2022年不同所有制企业对公平竞争环境均有提高。其中,其他所有制企业评价上升最多(提高 0.33 分);其次是中外合资合作企业,评价提高 0.13 分;国有企业、外商独资和私营企业评价分别提高 0.06 分、0.02 分和 0.01 分。(四(四)建筑行业评价提升多建筑行业评价提升多,传统制造业传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他高新技术产业和其他行业评价负增长行业评价负增长分行业看,资源行业对公平竞争环境评价分值最高,为 4.60 分;其次是建筑业和服务行业,分别为 4.56 分和4.48 分;高新技术产业评分最低,为 4.42 分;传统制造业和其他行业评分居中,分别为 4.45 分和 4.43 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑业、服务行业和资源行业评价提升明显,分别提高 0.16 分、0.20 分和 0.34 分;传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他行业评价出现下降,分别降低 0.05 分、0.04 分和 0.03分。22六、社会法治:法律监督和依法行政评价高,外资企业评价高社会法治环境可细分为法律监督、政府依法行政、法院与仲裁按期审结案件、法院判决与仲裁裁决执行和知识产权保护 5 个二级指标。2022 年,社会法治环境整体评价较好,总得分为 4.50 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 3 位。(一)法律监督得分最高,(一)法律监督得分最高,二级指标多二级指标多呈负增长呈负增长从二级指标看,法律监督得分最高,为 4.52 分;政府依法行政和知识产权保护得分居中,分别为 4.52 分和4.50 分;法院、仲裁按期审结案件和法院判决与仲裁裁决执行得分较低,分别为4.48 分、4.47 分。与 2021 年相比,法院判决与仲裁指标评价下降最多(降低 0.02分);其次是政府依法行政和法院、仲裁按期审结案件,均降低 0.01分。法律监督和知识产权保护评价与 2021 年持平。(二)中部地区评价得分高(二)中部地区评价得分高,东部地区评价负增长,东部地区评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对社会法治环境评价最高,为4.54 分;西部地区评价居中,为 4.49 分;东部地区较低,仅 4.47 分。与 2021 年相比,西部地区评价提高 0.16 分,中部地区评价降低 0.04 分,东部地区评价降低 0.21 分。23(三)外商独资企业评价较高,私营企业评价较低(三)外商独资企业评价较高,私营企业评价较低从所有制角度看,外商独资企业(4.56分)评价最高,中外合资合作企业(4.54 分)、其他所有制企业(4.54分)评价居中,私营企业(4.49 分)、国有企业企业(4.50 分)评价较低。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业评价提升最多(提高 0.29 分)。中外合资合作企业、国有企业、私营企业和外商独资企业评价均负增长,分别降低 0.13 分、0.06 分、0.02 分和 0.01 分。(四)建筑业评价高,高新技术产业评价低(四)建筑业评价高,高新技术产业评价低分行业看,建筑业对社会法治环境评价最高,为 4.62 分;其次是资源行业和服务行业,分别为4.59 分和 4.53 分;高新技术产业评分最低,为4.44 分;传统制造业和其他行业评分居中,为 4.51分和 4.45 分。与 2021 年相比,建筑业对社会法治环境评价提升最多(提高 0.30分),其次是服务行业和资源行业,分别提高 0.17 分和 0.09 分。其他行业、高新技术产业和传统制造业企业评价负增长,分别较低 0.08分、0.07 分和 0.04 分。24七、科技创新:二级指标评价相近,国有企业评价提升多科技创新环境细分为研发抵扣政策实施、知识产权抵押、产学研结合、创业孵化服务和公共服务平台建设 5 个二级指标。科技创新环境指标评分为 4.45 分,在 12 个一级指标中排名第 6 位。(一)二级指标评价相近,(一)二级指标评价相近,研发抵扣政策实施获较高评价研发抵扣政策实施获较高评价科技创新环境 5 个二级指标得分相近。其中,研发抵扣政策实施得分最高,为 4.47 分;其次是公共服务平台建设,为 4.46 分;知识产权抵押和产学研结合评价稍低,分别为 4.45 分和 4.44 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年产学研结合和公共服务平台建设指标评价提升较多,均提高 0.03 分;其次是创业孵化服务(提高 0.02 分)和知识产权抵押(提高 0.01 分);研发抵扣政策实施指标评价与 2021年持平。(二)(二)西部地区评价提升较大,东中部地区评价负增长西部地区评价提升较大,东中部地区评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对科技创新环境评价最高,为 4.50 分,西部地区评价(4.44 分)居中,东部地区评价负增长,仅 4.42 分。与 2021 年相比,西部地区评价提高 0.20 分,中部地区评价降低 0.03 分,东部地区评价降低 0.19 分。(三)(三)中外合资合作中外合资合作企业评价最高,其他所企业评价最高,其他所有有制企业评价低制企业评价低25从所有制角度看,中外合资合作企业对科技创新环境评价最高,为 4.58 分;外商独资企业(4.52 分)、其他所有制企业(4.49 分)和国有企业(4.47 分)评价居中;私营企业(4.44 分)评分最低。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业对科技创新环境评价提升最多(提高 0.30 分),其次是外商独资企业(提高 0.05 分),国有企业及中外合资合作企业评价负增长,分别降低 0.02 分和 0.01 分。私营企业评价与 2021 年持平。(四)(四)资源行业资源行业评价较高,三行业评价降低评价较高,三行业评价降低分行业看,资源行业对科技创新环境评价最高,为4.58分;其次是建筑业、服务行业和传统制造业,分别为 4.56 分、4.48 分和4.46 分;高新技术产业、其他行业评分较低,分别为 4.44 分、4.40 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑业、服务行业和资源行业评价提升明显,分别提高 0.33 分、0.20 分和 0.16 分;传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他行业评价负增长,分别降低 0.03 分、0.02 分和 0.06 分。八、人力资源:评价排名末位,社会专业化人才可获得性评价低人力资源环境细分为熟练劳动力的可获得性、中高层管理人员的可获得性、创新创业人才资源可得性、社会专业化人才的可获得性 4个二级指标。2022 年,人力资源环境评价在 12 个一级指标中排名末26位,仅 4.06 分。(一(一)熟练劳动力评价较高熟练劳动力评价较高,创新创业人才资源可得性评价较低创新创业人才资源可得性评价较低从二级指标看,熟练劳动力的可获得性评价相对较高,为 4.12 分;中高层管理人员的可获得性和社会化专业人才的可获得性评价较低,为 4.08 分和4.06 分;创新创业人才资源可得性评价最低,仅 4.01 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年创新创业人才资源可得性指标(0.04 分)提升最多;中高层管理人员的可获得性(0.03 分)和社会化专业人才的可获得性(0.02 分)有所提升;熟练劳动力的可获得性评价较上年提高 0.01 分。2022年,受访企业反映人工成本占总成本比重为26.75%,较2021年提高 0.48 个百分点,人工成本年均上涨 9.46%,较 2021 年提高 1.46个百分点。(二)西部地区评价显著提高,东部地区评价最低(二)西部地区评价显著提高,东部地区评价最低分地区看,西部地区对人力资源环境评价最高,为4.09分,较上年提高0.18分;中部地区得分为 4.08分,降低 0.03 分;东部地区评价负增长,为 4.00 分,较 2021 年下降 0.15 分。(三)其他所有制企业评价较高,(三)其他所有制企业评价较高,中外合资合作中外合资合作企业评价较低企业评价较低27从所有制角度看,其他所有制企业(4.18 分)评价最高,其次是外商独资企业(4.12 分);中外合资合作企业评价最低,仅 4.03 分;国有企业和私营企业评价居中,分别为4.09 分和 4.05 分。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业评价提升最多(提高 0.16 分),其次是中外合资合作企业和私营企业,分别提高 0.06 分和 0.02 分。国有企业评价负增长,降低 0.08 分。外商独资企业评价与 2021 年持平。(四)建筑业评价最高,高新技术产业评价较低(四)建筑业评价最高,高新技术产业评价较低分行业看,建筑业对人力资源环境评价分值最高,为 4.24 分;其次是资源行业,为 4.22分;高新技术产业评价最低,为 3.90 分;服务行业、传统制造业和其他行业评分居中,分别为 4.15 分、4.03 分和 4.07 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年建筑业评价提升较多,提高 0.33 分;传统制造业和服务行业评价有所提升,分别提高 0.06 分和 0.11 分;高新技术产业行业、其他行业和资源行业评价负增长,分别降低 0.04分、0.04 分和 0.09 分。九、金融服务:指标排名倒数第二,融资成本年度涨幅降低金融服务环境细分为融资便利性、融资渠道多元化 2 个二级指标。282022 年,受访企业对金融服务环境总体评价较低,为 4.11 分,在 12个一级指标中排名第 11 位。(一)二级指标评分较低,指标间差异不大(一)二级指标评分较低,指标间差异不大从二级指标看,融资便利性评分为 4.13 分,融资渠道多元化为 4.10 分。与 2021年相比,2022 年两指标评价均负增长,其中融资便利性降低 0.05 分,融资渠道多元化降低 0.06 分。2022 年受访企业融资成本率(融资成本占总成本百分比)为13.84%,较 2021 年下降 0.11 个百分点。(二)(二)西部地区评价显著提高,东中部地区评价负增长西部地区评价显著提高,东中部地区评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对金融服务环境评价最高,为 4.16 分,西部地区评价为 4.11 分,东部地区评价仅 4.08 分。与 2021 年相比,西部地区对金融服务环境评价提升最多(提高 0.19 分),中部和东部地区评价负增长,分别降低 0.30 分和 0.16 分。(三)外商独资企业评价较高,私营企业评价较低(三)外商独资企业评价较高,私营企业评价较低从所有制角度看,外商独资企业(4.18 分)评价最高;国有企业(4.14 分)、其他所有制企业(4.14 分)和中外合作、合资企业(4.1 229分)评价居中,私营企业评分最低(4.11 分)。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业评价提升最多(提高 0.23 分)。中外合资合作企业、外商独资企业、国有企业和私营企业评价均负增长,分别降低 0.20 分、0.19 分、0.17 分和 0.04 分。(四)建筑业、服务(四)建筑业、服务行行业业评价评价高,建筑业高,建筑业评价评价提升提升多多分行业看,建筑业、服务行业对金融服务环境评价最高,均为 4.18分;其次是传统制造业和资源行业,分别为 4.12分和 4.11 分;高新技术产业评分最低,为 4.04 分;资源行业和其他行业评分居中,分别为 4.11 分和 4.09 分。与 2021 年相比,建筑业、服务行业对金融服务环境评价提升明显,分别提高 0.24 分和 0.13 分;资源行业、其他行业、高新技术产业和传统制造业评价负增长,分别降低 0.13 分、0.12 分、0.11 分和0.09 分。十、财税服务:总体评价位列第二,二级指标评价优秀财税服务环境细分为财税执法规范性、申退税办理时间两个二级指标。2022 年企业对财税服务环境(4.52 分)总体评分较高,在 12个一级指标中位列第二。(一)(一)二级指标二级指标评价均为优秀,评价均为优秀,但但较较 2021 年年均有均有降低降低从二级指标看,财税执法规范性得分为 4.53 分,申退税办理时30间得分为 4.52 分。与2021年相比,2022年财税执法规范性评价降低 0.01 分,申退税办理时间上升 0.01 分。具体来看,2022 年受访企业反映平均税费缴纳次数从 12.55 次降低至 10.34 次;税费缴纳耗时从 7.25 小时上升至9.37 小时。(二)西部地区评价显著提高,东部地区评价(二)西部地区评价显著提高,东部地区评价负增长负增长分地区看,中部地区对财税服务环境评价最高,为4.55 分;西部地区评价居中,为 4.52 分;东部地区评价较低,为 4.50 分。与 2021 年相比,西部地区对财税服务环境评价提高0.19 分。中部和东部地区评价有所下降,分别降低 0.05 分和 0.20 分。(三)其他企业评价提升多,大部分类型企业评价负增长(三)其他企业评价提升多,大部分类型企业评价负增长从所有制角度看,中 外 合 资 合 作 企 业(4.62 分)评价最高;外商独资企业(4.61 分)、私营企业(4.52 分)评价居中。国有企业和其他所有制企业评分较低(4.47 分)。31与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业对财税服务环境年度评价提高0.24 分,中外合资合作企业、国有企业、外商独资企业评价负增长,分别降低 0.07 分、0.05 分和 0.02 分。私营企业对财税服务环境评价与 2021 年持平。(四)资源行业评价较高,其他行业评价较低(四)资源行业评价较高,其他行业评价较低分行业看,资源行业对财税服务环境评价最高,为 4.64 分;其次是建筑业、服务行业和传统制造业,分别为 4.58 分、4.55 分和4.55 分;其他行业和高新技术产业评分较低,分别为 4.47 分和 4.49 分。与 2021 年相比,建筑业和服务行业对财税服务环境评价提升明显,分别提高 0.27 分和 0.23 分;其次是资源行业,提高 0.20 分;其他行业、传统制造业和高新技术产业评价负增长,分别降低 0.10 分、0.05 分和 0.02 分。十一、海关服务:检验检疫评价高,二级指标评价负增长海关服务环境细分为货物通关、检验检疫和人员出入境 3 个二级指标。2022 年,受访企业对海关服务环境评价较高(4.48 分),在12 个一级指标中排名第 4。(一)二级指标均在优秀范(一)二级指标均在优秀范畴,指标评价均有所降低畴,指标评价均有所降低从二级指标看,货物通关和检验检疫评价较高,分别为 4.48分和 4.49 分;人员出入境评价略低,为 4.47 分。与 2021 年相比,322022 年各细分评价均有所降低,其中人员出入境和检验检疫情降低0.03 分;货物通关降低 0.04 分。(二)中部地区评价最高,西部地区评价显著提高(二)中部地区评价最高,西部地区评价显著提高分地区看,中部地区对海关服务环境评价最高,为 4.55分,东部地区评价为 4.48 分,西部地区评价为 4.43 分。与 2021 年相比,西部地区对海关服务环境评价提高0.15 分,中部和东部地区评价负增长,分别降低 0.07 分和 0.23 分。(三)其他所有制企业评价(三)其他所有制企业评价提升多提升多,部分企业评价负增长,部分企业评价负增长从所有制角度看,中外合资合作企业(4.60分)评价最高;外商独资企业(4.56 分)和私营企业(4.47 分)评价居中;其他所有制企业(4.45分)和国有企业评分较低(4.45 分)。与 2021 年相比,其他所有制企业对海关服务环境评价提升最多(提高 0.20 分),中外合资合作企业、国有企业、外商独资企业和私营企业评价负增长,分别降低 0.10 分、0.08 分、0.05 分和 0.04 分。(四)资源行业评价高,(四)资源行业评价高,三三行业评价负增长行业评价负增长分行业看,资源行业和建筑行业对海关服务环境评价较高,分别为 4.56 分和 4.55 分;其次是传统制造业,为 4.53 分;其他行业评分较低,为 4.42 分;服务行业和高新技术产业评分居中,分别为 4.4633分和 4.44 分。与2021年相比,2022年建筑业评价提升明显,提高 0.33 分;资源行业和服务行业评价分别提高0.07 分和 0.15 分;其他行业、传统制造业、高新技术产业评价负增长,分别降低 0.10 分、0.09 分、0.06 分。十二、企业设立和退出:环保手续评价高,土地获取评价提升多企业设立和退出环境细分为土地获取、环保手续和破产手续办理3 个二级指标。2021 年受访企业对企业设立于退出环境评价为 4.43分,在 13 个指标中排名第 8。(一)环保手续评价较高,(一)环保手续评价较高,土地获取评价较低土地获取评价较低从二级指标看,环保手续评价最高,为 4.44 分;破产手续办理评价最低,为 4.42 分;土地获取评价居中,为 4.43 分。与 2021 年相比,2022 年各细分评价均有所提升,其中土地获取评价提高 0.09 分,破产手续办理评价和环保手续评价均提高 0.06 分。(二(二)中中、西部地区评价提西部地区评价提升,东部评价负增长升,东部评价负增长分地区看,中部地区对企业设立和退出环境评价最高,为4.54分,西部地区评价为4.40分,东部地区评价为 4.39 分。34与 2021 年相比,西部地区对企业设立和退出环境评价提高 0.24分,中部地区评价提高 0.07 分,东部地区评价负增长,降低 0.16 分。(三)其他所有制企业评价迅速提升,私营企业评价较低(三)其他所有制企业评价迅速提升,私营企业评价较低从所有制角度看,中外合资合作企业(4.55分)评价最高,其次是外商独资企业(4.50 分)和其他企业(4.50 分);私营企业(4.41 分)评分最低;国有企业评价居中,为 4.42 分。与 2021 年相比,其他企业对企业设立和退出环境评价提升最多(提高 0.31 分),其次是私营股企业(提高 0.07 分)和外商独资企业(提高 0.03 分)。中外合资合作企业和国有企业评价与 2021 年持平。(四)建筑业评价较高,其他行业评价较低(四)建筑业评价较高,其他行业评价较低分行业看,建筑业对企业设立和退出环境评价最高,为 4.60 分;其次是资源行业、服务行业、传统制造业和高新技术产业,分别为4.58 分、4.44 分、4.44分和 4.41 分;其他行业评分较低,为 4.38 分。与 2021 年相比,建筑业对企业设立和退出评价提升明显,提高0.36 分;其次是服务行业和资源行业评价,分别提高 0.20 分和 0.2335分;传统制造业和高新技术产业评价均提升 0.04 分。其他行业对企业设立和退出环境评价与 2021 年持平。36第三章企业经营与投资状况2022 年,近九成受访企业受到疫情不同程度消极影响,东部地区受影响企业占比达 92.1%,76.2%的受访企业收入在一般及以上水平,这一比例较 2021 年降低 13.2 个百分点。利用本地资源和开拓市场是企业投资的主因。受访企业盼政府进一步优化政策政务环境,引进上下游配套企业,对疫情受影响较大的企业进一步提供资金补贴和税费减免。一、近九成企业受疫情不同程度影响(一)九成受访企业受疫情消极影响(一)九成受访企业受疫情消极影响九成企业受到新冠疫情不同程度的消极影响,其中受“影响较大”的企业占比最高,为 42.7%;受“影响较小”和“影响严重”的企业分别占 31.4%和 14.7%。此外,6.0%的企业反映疫情具有积极影响;5.3%的企业反映未受到影响。从不同地区看,东部、中部和西部地区受疫情影响的企业占比均超八成,东部地区受影响企业占比最高,为92.1%。从受影响程度上看,西部地区受“严重影响”和“较大影响”的企业占比最高,为61.5%;中部地区受“积极影响”和“没有影响”的企业占比最高,为 13.2%。从不同所有制类型看,其他所有制企业受疫情消极情影响占比较注:“影响严重”指 2022 年上半年销售收入下降 50%以上,“影响较大”指下降 20%-50%,“影响较小”指下降 0-20%,“有积极影响”指收入不降反升。37高(89.2%),外商独资企业未受影响或受积极影响占比较高(18.3%)。从不同行业看,服务行业(88.9%)和其他行业(90.3%)受疫情消极影响较大;资源行业未受影响或受积极影响占比较高(14.3%)。(二)受访(二)受访企业企业供应链、生产经营、出口等供应链、生产经营、出口等受影响明显受影响明显47.0%的企业反映疫情对供应链的影响最大;40.4%和36.8%的企业表示生产经营、出口受影响明显;34.9%、31.7%和 27.3%的企业表示资金链、国内销售和复工受到影响;6.1%的企业反馈售后服务受影响。从行业角度看,资源行业(48.1%)、传统制造业(55.8%)、高38新技术产业(63.7%)受访企业反映供应链受疫情影响较大;其他行业(41.0%)、服务行业(49.2%)、建筑业(50.8%)受访企业反映生产经营受疫情影响较大。表表 3-2-13-2-1 不同行业受疫情影响的主要表现不同行业受疫情影响的主要表现传统制造业传统制造业高新技术产业高新技术产业资源行业资源行业建筑业建筑业服务行业服务行业其他其他供应链 55.8%供应链 63.7%供应链48.1%生产经营50.8%生产经营 49.2%生产经营 41.0%出口 48.4%出口 46.6%生产经营42.3%资金链43.8%资金链 37.7%供应链 40.4%国内销售35.8%国内销售 41.1%资金链37.5%复工 43.8%供应链 35.4%出口 36.7%生产经营35.5%资金链 34.7%复工 36.5%供应链30.8%复工 27.5%资金链 33.5%资金链 33.3%生产经营 33.6%国内销售28.8%国内销售20.0%国内销售 26.0%国内销售 28.7%复工 28.1%复工 27.7%出口 19.2%其他 16.2%出口 19.6%复工 23.1%售后服务 4.3%售后服务 7.5%其他 8.7%出口 8.5%其他 11.8%其他 11.7%其他 1.4%其他 4.6%售后服务5.8%售后服务4.6%售后服务 9.2%售后服务 5.2%(三)受访企业对后疫情时期发展前景乐观态度(三)受访企业对后疫情时期发展前景乐观态度有所下降有所下降调查显示,超五成(56.3%)企业对后疫情时期发展前景持“一般”态度,36.6%持“乐观”态度,仅 7.1%持“悲观”态度。与 2021 年相比,企业持“乐观”态度的占比减少 4.7 个百分点,持“悲观”态度的占比增加 2.1 个百分点。从所有制角度看,各类企业对后疫情时期发展前景持“一般”态度的占比较为接近,其中私营企业占比最高(57.5%);国有企业持“乐观”态度的占比较大,为 50.5%;中外合资、合作企业持“悲观”39态度的占比较大,为 8.0%。与 2021 年相比,中外合资合作企业、外商独资企业、其他所有制企业、私营企业和国有企业持“悲观”态度占比均有上升,分别提高 5.2、3.7、2.2、1.7 和 1.4 个百分点。从不同行业看,各行业企业对后疫情时期发展前景持“乐观”态度的差异明显,其中高新技术产业企业占比最高(43.1%);各行业企业持“一般”态度的占比接近或超半数,其中其他所有制企业占比最高(59.7%);除服务行业外,各行业企业持“悲观”态度的占比均不足一成。与 2021 年相比,建筑业企业对后疫情时期持“悲观”态度的占比降低 3.9 个百分点,资源行业、服务行业、传统制造业、高新技术产业和其他行业持“悲观”态度的企业占比均有提高,分别增加 5.8、3.4、2.4、1.4 和 1.4 个百分点。(四)近七成受访企业希望政府提供疫情补贴(四)近七成受访企业希望政府提供疫情补贴为尽可能减少疫情影响,超六成企业希望政府能提供疫情补贴(66.5%)和加大税收减免力度(63.8%);44.0%的企业希望政府40提供金融支持;超三成企业希望政府在提供物流支持(30.1%)和搭建企业间网络对接平台(19.7%)方面给予帮助;约一成企业希望政府能提供定期疫情防控指导(11.9%)和提供防疫装备(8.3%)。(五(五)过半数受访企业已采取或可能采取缩减过半数受访企业已采取或可能采取缩减不必要开支不必要开支的措施的措施受疫情影响,过半数受访企业已采取或可能采取缩减不必要开支的措施(50.7%);有49.2%的受访企业调整了经营策略,38.1%的受访企业缩减了生产规模。此外,采取其他、裁员、降薪和暂停经营措施的受访企业分别占 12.8%、14.8%、10.7%和 9.4%。二、收入增长的受访企业占比同比降低2022 年,76.2%的受访企业收入在一般及以上水平,较2021年降低 13.2 个百分点。35.7%的受访企业收入状况维持在较好及以上,较 2021 年下降 3.8 个百分点。(一(一)中中部地区近五成部地区近五成受受访访企业企业收入收入在较好及以上在较好及以上,东东部地区部地区不足不足三成三成分 地 区 看。中 部 地 区(42.0%)收入很好和较好的注:营业收入增长幅度在 10%以上,为“很好”;增长幅度在 5-10%以上为“较好”;增长幅度在 0-5%,为“一般”;下降幅度在 10%以内为“较差”;下降幅度在 10%以上为“很差”。41企业均超过全国水平(35.7%);东部地区收入较好及以上的企业占比较低,仅 29.2%;西部地区收入很好和较好的企业与全国水平持平。东部、中部和西部收入在一般及以上水平企业占比均超过七成,分别为 74.5%、85.2%和 74.6%。(二)(二)资源行业资源行业投资投资收入收入在较好及以上企业占比超五成在较好及以上企业占比超五成分行业看,资源行业投资收入较好及以上企业占比高达 55.4%,高新技术产业次之(46.8%),服务行业最低(29.5%)。资源行业收入很好和较好企业占比均为最高,分别是 27.2%、28.2%,且收入增长企业(一般及以上)占比最多,为 83.5%。超四成建筑业企业投资收入一般(44.2%),占比最高。服务行业收入较差和很差企业占比最高,为 30.4%。(三)(三)收入收入增长企业占比较增长企业占比较 2021 年有所下降年有所下降2022 年收入增长(收入一般及以上)企业占比为 76.2%,较 2021年的 83.0%下降 6.8 个百分点。收入较好企业占比下降 5.6 个百分点,收入一般企业占比下降 3 个百分点。收入很好、较差、很差企业占比均有所提高,分别上升 1.9、2.2 和 4.5 个百分点。42从不同地区看,2022 年中部地区收入增长企业占 80.6%,较 2021年降低 4.5 个百分点;西部地区收入增长企业占 74.6%,较 2021 年降低 0.6 个百分点;东部地区收入增长企业占 74.5%,较 2021 年降低16.1 个百分点。分行业看,2022 年传统制造业收入增长企业占 44.4%,较 2021年降低 8.4 个百分点;高新技术产业收入增长企业占 82.2%,较 2021年降低 4 个百分点;资源行业收入增长企业占 83.6%,较 2021 年提高 4.1 个百分点;建筑业收入增长企业占 79.9%,较 2021 年降低 1.5个百分点;服务行业收入增长企业占 69.6%,较 2021 年降低 5.8 个百分点;其他行业收入增长企业占 76.3%,较 2021 年降低 6.3 个百分点。4344三、成本提高和市场竞争激烈问题突出企业反映生产经营过程中,成本提高问题和市场竞争激烈最为显著,分 别 占 80.7%和66.3%。此外,金融支持不够(24.6%)、税费负担过重(14.9%)、政策不稳定(12.8%)等问题也较突出。各行业均有超七成企业认为成本提高是生产经营中遇到的最主要问题,其次是市场竞争激烈和金融支持不足。18.4%的传统制造业企业和 18.3%的高新技术产业企业反映税费负担过重;14.1%的资源行业企业和 20.3%的建筑业企业反映政策不稳定;服务行业和其他行业各有 16.0%和 17.9%的企业反映存在其他问题。表表 3-3-3 3-1-1 不同行业生产经营过程中遇到的主要问题不同行业生产经营过程中遇到的主要问题传统制造业传统制造业高新技术产业高新技术产业资源行业资源行业建筑业建筑业服务行业服务行业其他其他成本提高 87.2%成本提高85.3%成本提高76.9%成本提高77.2%成本提高71.9%成本提高78.5%市场竞争激烈68.2%市场竞争激烈67.3%市场竞争激烈57.7%市场竞争激烈68.4%市场竞争激烈67.0%市场竞争激烈63.8%金融支持不够20.4%金融支持不够28.5%金融支持不够29.5%金融支持不够34.2%金融支持不够24.9%金融支持不够26.2%税费负担过重18.4%税费负担过重18.3%政策不稳定14.1%政策不稳定20.3%其他 16.0%其他 17.9%政策不稳定10.4%政策不稳定11.3%税费负担过重10.3%税费负担过重16.5%政策不稳定15.9%税费负担过重13.6%其他 9.6%其他 9.9%其他 9.0%其他 12.7%税费负担过重12.5%政策不稳定13.0%四、利用本地资源和开拓市场为企业投资主因(一)近五成受访企业将利用本地资源视作投资首要原因(一)近五成受访企业将利用本地资源视作投资首要原因4544.1%的企业将利用本地资源视作投资的主要原因,其次是开拓市场(41.8%)和建立生产基地(38.8%)。降低生产成本和享受优惠政策的占比在三成以上,分别为 34.4%和 30.4%。产业配套和寻求战略合作等因素也是企业投资时考虑的重要原因。从行业角度看,传统制造业、高新技术产业投资首要原因为建立生产基地,分别占 52.9%和 56.9%;资源行业、建筑行业、服务行业、其他行业投资首要原因为开拓市场,分别占 52.9%、54.5%、58.9%、43.6%。(二(二)受访企业投资主要依靠自身考察和当地政府招商引资落地受访企业投资主要依靠自身考察和当地政府招商引资落地超半数(56.1%)企业赴当地投资是通过自身考察落地,近四成(36.2%)企业由当地政府招商引资落地;在已有项目基础上投资新46项目、受同行或关联行业带动而投资的占比分别为 27.0%、24.6%;第三方推荐和其他方式占比较低,分别为 13.5%和 10.0%。五、受访企业希望政府进一步优化营商环境(一)政策政务环境是受访企业关注重点(一)政策政务环境是受访企业关注重点在本次调研中,希望政府持续改善政策政务环境的企业占比最高(49.3%),其次是基础设施环境(41.6%)、人力资源环境(22.5%)和金融服务环境(23.9%)。(二)受访企业对地区产业链建设要求较高(二)受访企业对地区产业链建设要求较高调研结果显示,企业希望当地政府在招商引资中着重引进上下游配套企业(70.8%);其次是引进商贸物流企业(51.4%);有引进租赁、担保等金融服务企业和法律咨询服务企业需求的受访企业占比分别为 17.2%和 15.5%。47(三)受访企业希望贸促会着重完善信息平台建设(三)受访企业希望贸促会着重完善信息平台建设59.1%的受访企业希望贸促会搭建更完善信息平台,占比最高;其次是投资项目对接(49.0%)。此外,分别有 37.6%、32.4%、28.9%和 18.5%的企业需要贸促会提供业务培训、国内外考察、展会论坛和商事法律服务。48第四章营商环境建设成就一、营商环境创新改革“由点到面”(一一)开展营商环境创新试点工作)开展营商环境创新试点工作为鼓励有条件的地方进一步瞄准最高标准、最高水平开展先行先试,加快构建与国际通行规则相衔接的营商环境制度体系,持续优化市场化法治化国际化营商环境,2021 年 11 月国务院印发关于开展营商环境创新试点工作的意见(以下简称意见)。意见从十个方面明确了开展营商环境创新试点的重点任务:一是进一步破除区域分割和地方保护等不合理限制;二是健全更加开放透明、规范高效的市场主体准入和退出机制;三是持续提升投资和建设便利度;四是更好支持市场主体创新发展;五是持续提升跨境贸易便利化水平;六是优化外商投资和国际人才服务管理;七是维护公平竞争秩序;八是进一步加强和创新监管;九是依法保护各类市场主体产权和合法权益,十是优化经常性涉企服务。意见提出的主要目标是:经过三至五年的创新试点,试点城市营商环境国际竞争力跃居全球前列,政府治理效能全面提升,在全球范围内集聚和配置各类资源要素能力明显增强,市场主体活跃度和发展质量显著提高,率先建成市场化法治化国际化的一流营商环境,形成一系列可复制可推广的制度创新成果,为全国营商环境建设作出重要示范。综合考虑经济体量、市场主体数量、改革基础条件等,选择北京、上海、重庆、杭州、广州、深圳作为试点城市,各试点城市的实施及完成情况如下:北京北京 2022 年印发培育和激发市场主体活力持续优化营商环境实施方案 和 关于开展北京市营商环境创新试点工作的实施方案。这是北京市连续第 5 次集中出台的一批优化营商环境改革举措,被称中国政府网 http:/版改革,也即“创新 活力=北京营商环境 5.0 版改革”。截至 8 月 17 日,北京市 2022 年国家营商环境创新试点城市建设任务已基本完成,营商环境 5.0 版改革 299 项任务完成 83%。上海上海 2021 年 12 月印发营商环境创新试点实施方案,力争用3-5 年时间,推动上海营商环境国际竞争力跃居世界前列。2022 年上海各区以创新试点方案为抓手,制定了一系列政策措施,如杨浦区为助力市场主体纾困解难,升级优化营商环境 5.0 版行动方案,制定 对标最高标准、最好水平,持续推进杨浦营商环境改革创新的行动计划,推出 150 项改革创新任务和 10 大特色服务品牌。重庆重庆 2022 年 1 月以来先后印发营商环境创新试点实施方案等政策文件,持续深化营商环境创新试点和成渝地区双城经济圈营商环境建设,进一步助力市场主体纾困解难,更大激发市场活力和发展内生动力,提升群众办事创业的便利度、满意度和获得感。杭州杭州 2022 年印发国家营商环境创新试点实施方案,形成“1个总体方案 153 个专项方案”改革体系架构,用一系列实打实的举措释放惠企利民红利。在落实 101 项国家改革事项基础上新增 52 项特色改革事项,蓄力打造国内最优、国际一流营商环境,在电子证照、“互联网 监管”、综合执法、政务服务等领域,打造多项“硬核”成果。广州广州 2022 年实施建设国家营商环境创新试点城市实施方案,启动营商环境 5.0 改革,以“激发活力”为主线,将制度创新和制度供给作为关键,更大力度利企便民。注重面向全体市场主体,着力构建更有效率的企业全生命周期服务体系,通过“一企一策、一项一策”帮助企业解决困难问题。深圳深圳 2022 年印发建设营商环境创新试点城市实施方案,正式开启优化营商环境 5.0 版改革。从营造竞争有序的市场环境、打造北京市经济和信息化局 http:/上海市发展和改革委员会 https:/重庆市政府 http:/杭州市政府 http:/50公正透明的法治环境、构建国际接轨的开放环境、打造高效便利的政务环境等 4 方面提出 12 个领域的任务内容,并明确了要在今年落地实施的首批 200 项具体改革事项。此外,深圳还聚焦强化要素新供给、对接国际新规则、培育优质新主体三大主攻方向,提出 99 项“自选动作”改革任务,确保把深圳“敢为人先”的首创精神落实到位。(二二)复制推广营商环境创新改革举措复制推广营商环境创新改革举措2022 年 10 月 31 日,国务院办公厅发布关于复制推广营商环境创新试点改革举措的通知,决定在全国范围内复制推广一批营商环境创新试点改革举措,以进一步扩大改革效果,推动全国营商环境整体改善。复制推广的改革举措包括 9 个方面内容:一是进一步破除区域分割和地方保护等不合理限制(4 项);二是健全更加开放透明、规范高效的市场主体准入和退出机制(9 项);三是持续提升投资和建设便利度(7 项);四是更好支持市场主体创新发展(2 项);五是持续提升跨境贸易便利化水平(5 项);六是维护公平竞争秩序(3项);七是进一步加强和创新监管(5 项);八是依法保护各类市场主体产权和合法权益(2 项);九是优化经常性涉企服务(13 项)。二、法治化营商环境日趋完善(一)多方位建设法治化营商环境(一)多方位建设法治化营商环境1.多位一体健全营商环境配套法规多位一体健全营商环境配套法规。各地方政府陆续颁布和实施优化营商环境条例(以下简称条例),并在地方行政立法工作中,对涉及优化营商环境的法规规章优先安排、加力推进、强化审修、突出实效,高质量完成优化营商环境相关立法工作。北京市北京市政府为切实保障条例中的各项改革措施落地见效,市发改委提前组织各单位研究条例实施需配套的各项政策,共梳理出需要出台的配套政策措施 82 项,其中固化现有经验或已出台政策措施 24 项,如建深圳市发展和改革委员会 http:/深圳市商务局 http:/51立行政检查单制度、政务服务“好差评”制度、12345 服务热线、公平竞争审查制度等。黑龙江省黑龙江省政府为保证条例的有效贯彻实施,在全国率先开展营商环境监督专项地方立法工作,相继出台营商环境监督办法社会信用条例促进中小企业发展条例等法律法规,筑牢优化营商环境法治之基。2.数字经济法律法规持续完善数字经济法律法规持续完善。中国高度重视数字经济发展,持续改善营商环境,出台了一系列法规,包括网络安全法电子商务法数据安全法个人信息保护法,先后两次修订反不正当竞争法,公布了反垄断法修订草案,制定发布关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南。同时加大执法力度,成立反垄断局。去年以来,有关部门加强对数字经济平台领域监管执法,查处了强制实行“二选一”,强制性扼杀式收购等违法违规行为,在监管部门指导下,平台企业进行全面整改,数字经济正向规范有序的新发展阶段转变。3.知识产权保护体系和政策建立健全知识产权保护体系和政策建立健全。为推进知识产权强国建设,全面提升知识产权创造、运用、保护、管理和服务水平,充分发挥知识产权制度在社会主义现代化建设中的重要作用,2021 年 4 月人民法院印发人民法院知识产权司法保护规划(20212025 年)。9月中共中央、国务院发布 知识产权强国建设纲要(20212035 年)。10 月国务院印发“十四五”国家知识产权保护和运用规划,12月第十三届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第三十二次会议修订通过科学技术进步法,自 2022 年 1 月 1 日起施行。其中,科学技术进步法旨在营造尊重知识产权的社会环境,保护知识产权,激励自主创新。此外,通过推进修正反垄断法电子商务法专利法实施细则,以细化反垄断和反不正当竞争规则,预防和制止平台经济领域垄断、不正当竞争等行为,引导平台经营者依法合规经营。(二)知识产权保护成效显著(二)知识产权保护成效显著1.受理受理、审结实现审结实现“双突破双突破”。2021 年,人民法院受理、审结知52识产权案件数量双双突破 60 万件,再创历史新高。2021 年新收一审、二审、申请再审约 64.3 万件,审结各类知识产权案件约 60.2 万件(含旧存),比 2020 年分别上升 22.33%和 14.71%。2.高压严打知识产权侵权行为高压严打知识产权侵权行为。2021 年,中国查处专利、商标等领域违法案件 5.01 万件,查办侵权盗版案件 2957 件,删除侵权盗版链接 119.7 万条,批准逮捕涉及侵犯知识产权犯罪案件 4500 余件、7800 余人。开展“昆仑 2021”专项行动,依法严厉打击侵犯知识产权犯罪。全国公安机关侦破侵犯知识产权和制售假冒伪劣商品犯罪案件 2.1 万余起。坚持对各类市场主体依法平等保护,先后侦破一批侵犯知识产权的大要案件,以严明法治保障优良营商环境。3.强化海关行政保护强化海关行政保护。开展“龙腾行动 2021”知识产权保护专项行动。2021 年全国海关共查扣进出口侵权嫌疑货物 7.92 万批次,货物数量 7180.3 万件。查扣的侵权嫌疑货物涉及商标专用权、专利权、著作权、奥林匹克标志和世界博览会标志等。其中,涉嫌侵犯商标权货物 7.9 万批次 6804.6 万件,涉嫌侵犯专利权货物 85 批次 293.3 万件,涉嫌侵犯著作权货物 233 批次 81.5 万件,涉嫌侵犯奥林匹克标志和世界博览会标志货物 8 批次 8381 件。(三)司法维护市场公平与健康发展(三)司法维护市场公平与健康发展1.以司法维护市场公平竞争以司法维护市场公平竞争。2021 年,人民法院不断加强反垄断和反不正当竞争司法,审结垄断案件 49 件、不正当竞争案件 7478 件。探索数据权利保护规则,服务数字经济,促进电子商务发展。审理平台“二选一”、刷单炒信等垄断和不正当竞争案件,严惩妨碍公平竞争、损害群众利益行为。2.以司法助力市场主体有序退出和有效救治以司法助力市场主体有序退出和有效救治。2021 年,人民法院共审结破产案件 1.3 万件,涉及债权 2.3 万亿元,促进企业优胜劣汰和要素资源高效配置。充分发挥破产审判“积极拯救”和“及时出清”国家知识产权局 2021 年中国知识产权保护状况白皮书53功能,同时坚决防止借破产之名逃废债。配合全国人大常委会开展企业破产法执法检查,促进完善破产法律制度。例如,深圳个人破产条例首案裁定生效,让依法经营、诚实守信的债务人可以从头再来,个人破产制度实践迈出重要一步。审结破产重整案件 732 件,盘活资产1.5 万亿元,让 745 家困境企业再获新生,35 万余名员工稳住就业。三、全国统一大市场逐渐形成(一一)市场分割进一步破除市场分割进一步破除2021 年 11 月国务院印发关于开展营商环境创新试点工作的意见,提出进一步破除区域分割和地方保护等不合理限制的重点任务,以加快破除妨碍生产要素市场化配置和商品服务流通的体制机制障碍,并提出在试点城市推进六项具体改革事项,包括:“一照多址”、“一证多址”改革,便利企业分支机构、连锁门店信息变更,清除招投标和政府采购领域对外地企业设置的隐性门槛和壁垒,推动招投标领域数字证书兼容互认,推进客货运输电子证照跨区域互认与核验,优化常用低风险植物和植物产品跨区域流通检疫申请流程。2022 年 3 月关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见发布,提出加快建立全国统一的市场制度规则,打破地方保护和市场分割,打通制约经济循环的关键堵点,促进商品要素资源在更大范围内畅通流动,加快建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场;并从六个方面明确了加快建设全国统一大市场的重点任务,一是强化市场基础制度规则统一,二是推进市场设施高标准联通,三是打造统一的要素和资源市场,四是推进商品和服务市场高水平统一,五是推进市场监管公平统一,六是要进一步规范不当市场竞争和市场干预行为。10 月国务院办公厅发布关于复制推广营商环境创新试点改革举措的通知,再次提出进一步破除区域分割和地方保护等不合理限制,包括“开展一照多址改革”、“便利企业分支机构、连锁中国政府网 http:/同上同上54门店信息变更”、“清除招投标和政府采购领域对外地企业设置的隐性门槛和壁垒”、“推进客货运输电子证照跨区域互认与核验”等。(二)制度性交易成本降低(二)制度性交易成本降低优化营商环境、降低制度性交易成本是减轻市场主体负担、激发市场活力的重要举措。当前经济运行面临一些突出矛盾和问题,市场主体特别是中小微企业、个体工商户生产经营困难依然较多。为深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署,打造市场化法治化国际化营商环境,降低制度性交易成本,提振市场主体信心,助力市场主体发展,为稳定宏观经济大盘提供有力支撑,2022 年 9 国务院办公厅印发关于进一步优化营商环境降低市场主体制度性交易成本的意见。该意见从五个方面为中小微个体解难题:一是进一步破除隐性门槛,推动降低市场主体准入成本;二是进一步规范涉企收费,推动减轻市场主体经营负担;三是进一步优化涉企服务,推动降低市场主体办事成本;四是进一步加强公正监管,切实保护市场主体合法权益;五是进一步规范行政权力,切实稳定市场主体政策预期。为推动个体工商户实现长远健康发展,解决个体工商户“急难愁盼”问题,国务院 2022 年 10 月公布促进个体工商户发展条例,自 2022 年 11 月 1 日起施行。个体工商户是百姓生活最直接的服务者,截至 2022 年 9 月底,全国登记在册的个体工商户 1.11 亿户,占中国市场主体总量的三分之二,带动就业近 3 亿人,在稳增长、促就业、惠民生等方面发挥着重要作用。新条例是在原 个体工商户条例基础上制定出台的,结合个体工商户发展的总体形势、问题困难和利益诉求,有利于更好地促进个体工商户长远健康发展。新条例进一步降低了制度性交易成本。个体工商户经营主要集中在批发零售、餐饮和居民服务行业,新条例分别从线下和线上两方面作出了规定。首先是支持个体工商户在社区从事与居民日常生活密切中国政府网 http:/同上55相关的经营活动,满足居民生活消费需求;其次是引导和支持个体工商户加快数字化发展,提升线上经营能力。同时,回应了个体工商户提出的入驻网络平台经营遇到的种种问题,专门规定了平台经营者的义务。按照原条例和相关登记管理法规的规定,个体工商户变更经营者,也就是通常所说的“出兑”店铺、转让经营权的,除家庭成员之间的变更外,都要重新申请登记,即注销原个体工商户,申请设立新的个体工商户。为解决这一问题,新条例调整了个体工商户变更经营者的方式,由原来的“先注销、后成立”改为“直接向市场主体登记机关申请办理变更登记”。这一规定便利了个体工商户经营权的转让,实现了个体工商户变更经营者在成立时间、字号和相关行政许可方面的延续,大大简化了手续、降低了制度性交易成本,有利于个体工商户持续经营、打造“百年老店”。四、外资企业投资信心不断增强(一)吸引外资实现稳中有增、稳中提质的明显成效(一)吸引外资实现稳中有增、稳中提质的明显成效今年以来,面对日趋复杂严峻的国际形势以及跨国投资疲软等新情况新问题,我国吸引外资克服了多重困难,实现了稳中有增、稳中提质的明显成效。商务部数据显示,2022 年 1-10 月,全国实际使用外资金额 10898.6 亿元人民币,接近 2021 年全年水平,按可比口径同比增长 14.4%,折合 1683.4 亿美元,增长 17.4%。从产业结构看,全国高技术产业利用外资同比增速高于总体水平,其中高技术制造业增长 57.2%,高技术服务业增长 25%。从来源结构看,外资来源地更趋多元平衡,韩国、德国、英国、日本实际对华投资同比分别增长106.2%、95.8%、40.1%和 36.8%。从区域结构看,中西部地区利用外资增速高于东部地区,东、中、西部地区实际使用外资分别增长 12.4%、33.6%和 26.9%。(二)出台多项政策措施(二)出台多项政策措施“引外资引外资”“”“稳外资稳外资”新华社 推动个体工商户实现长远健康发展聚焦促进个体工商户发展条例562022 年政府工作报告及国务院关于印发扎实稳住经济的一揽子政策措施的通知中,明确要求扩大鼓励外商投资范围,支持外资加大中高端制造、研发、现代服务等领域和中西部、东北地区投资。为进一步扩大外资流入,稳定外商投资规模,提高利用外资质量,更好发挥利用外资在促进中国制造业高质量发展、更深融入全球产业链供应链的积极作用,2022 年 10 月,国家发展改革委等部门印发 关于以制造业为重点促进外资扩增量稳存量提质量的若干政策措施。该措施主要包括以下三方面内容:一是优化投资环境,扩大外商投资流入;二是加强投资服务,支持外商投资企业发展;三是引导投资方向,提升外商投资质量。具体包括深入实施外资准入负面清单、高标准落实外资准入后国民待遇、鼓励外商投资企业利润再投资、支持制造业外商投资企业进出口、优化外商投资结构、支持外商投资创新发展等 15 项举措。随后,国家发展改革委、商务部又公开发布了鼓励外商投资产业目录(2022 年版),该目录作为中国重要的外商投资促进政策,对于支持外资发展、引导外资产业投向、优化外资区域布局发挥了重要作用。本次修订主要有以下三方面变化:一是持续鼓励外资投向先进制造业,二是持续引导外资投向现代服务业,三是持续引导外资投向中西部和东北地区优势产业。该目录内的行业领域主要可享受三项优惠政策:一是在投资总额内进口自用设备,除国家规定不予免税的产品,免征关税;二是对于集约用地的鼓励类工业项目优先供应土地,并且可以按不低于所在地等别相对应全国工业用地出让最低价标准的 70%确定出让底价;三是在西部地区和海南省投资,还可进一步减按 15%税率缴纳企业所得税。(三)贸促会设立服务外资专班坚定外企扎根中国信心底气(三)贸促会设立服务外资专班坚定外企扎根中国信心底气2022 年 6 月召开的国务院常务会议指出,对外开放是我国的基本国策,稳外贸稳外资事关经济全局、就业大局,要进一步扩大对外中国商务部 http:/同上同上57开放。在落实已出台稳外贸稳外资政策同时,进一步加大支持。会议提出,保障外贸外资企业生产流通稳定是当前稳外贸稳外资工作重中之重,要充分发挥各级稳外贸稳外资、物流保通保畅等机制作用,及时协调解决外贸外资企业复工达产、项目建设等方面困难。指导地方创新稳外贸稳外资措施。经国务院批准,中国贸促会设立服务外资企业工作专班,建立起外资企业诉求自下而上、便捷快速的直通车,进一步夯实上下贯通、横向协作的外资企业服务体系。这项工作覆盖全国贸促系统、面向广大外资企业,是做好稳外资工作、服务稳住经济大盘的重要抓手和平台。外资专班成立以来,贸促会坚持全国贸促系统一盘棋,加强与有关部门的协作配合,通过召开座谈会、建立直报平台、密切与企业联系、深入企业调研等方式,广泛收集数百项外资企业诉求,经过梳理甄别、分门别类、归纳提炼,及时向有关部门进行反映,推动一大批外资企业急难愁盼问题得到有效解决,产业链供应链运转更加顺畅,受到外资企业高度赞扬。五、科技创新全方位发力(一)顶层政策不断引领(一)顶层政策不断引领在关于促进中小企业健康发展的指导意见基础上,2021 年6 月,财政部、商务部、国务院国有资产监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会等六部门联合印发 关于加快培育发展制造业优质企业的指导意见。11 月,国务院促进中小企业发展工作领导小组办公室印发为“专精特新”中小企业办实事清单和提升中小企业竞争力若干措施。这些政策和措施立足新发展阶段,以推动企业高质量发展为主题,不断健全体系、完善政策、优化服务,着力增强自主创新能力。中国将会以金融财政和人才政策措施等抓手,加快培育和发展一批专业化、精细化、特色化、新颖化的专精特新“小巨人”中国科技部 http:/中国政府网 http:/同58企业,并且在重点行业和领域引导“小巨人”等各类企业成长为国际市场领先的单项冠军企业,引导大企业集团发展成为具有生态主导力、国际竞争力的领航企业。(二)科技成果转化机制愈发健全(二)科技成果转化机制愈发健全1.完善科技成果转移转化制度规范完善科技成果转移转化制度规范。科学技术进步法修订版将科技成果转化摆在突出位置。无论篇幅还是内容都有较大扩展,从科技创新基本法角度将促进科技成果转化法自 2015 年施行以来的重要决策和政策举措,以及行之有效的经验做法上升为法律规范。2.完善科技成果评价机制完善科技成果评价机制。科技成果评价是科技成果转移转化中的关键一环。完善的科技成果评价机制,有助于大幅提高科技成果转移转化成效。2021 年 7 月国务院办公厅印发的关于完善科技成果评价机制的指导意见提出“充分发挥科技成果评价的指挥棒作用,全面准确反映成果创新水平、转化应用绩效和对经济社会发展的实际贡献,着力强化成果高质量供给与转化应用”。3.落实科技成果转化激励政策落实科技成果转化激励政策。激励科技人员实施科技成果转化,是激发第一动力、激活第一资源的重要举措,关键是落实科技成果转化奖酬金政策。国家多个文件强调要对科技人员实施激励分配。针对科技成果转化奖酬金政策落实中如何把握政策执行尺度问题,2021年 2 月,人力资源社会保障部、财政部、科技部印发关于事业单位科研人员职务科技成果转化现金奖励纳入绩效工资管理有关问题的通知,明确了科研成果转化奖励不受绩效工资总额限制,不作为下一年度绩效工资核定基数,不作为社会保险缴费基数。(三)财税扶持力度加大(三)财税扶持力度加大为了优化创新企业的营商环境,增加创新动能,激发企业创新活力,服务国家创新驱动发展战略,2021 年,财政部、海关总署、税务总局针对科技创新的主要环节和关键领域,陆续推出了多个税费优中国政府网 http:/同59惠政策,如关于支持集成电路产业和软件产业发展进口税收政策的通知(财关税20214 号)、关于延长部分税收优惠政策执行期限的公告(财政部税务总局公告 2021 年第 6 号)、关于进一步完善研发费用税前加计扣除政策的公告(财政部税务总局公告2021 年第 13 号)、关于“十四五”期间支持科技创新进口税收政策的通知(财关税202123 号)等政策,这些政策从研发费用扣税、免征用于科研资料等进口环节增值税、房产税和城镇土地使用税等方面对科技创新企业进行了大力度扶持。Chinas Business Environment Annual Report(2022)Trade and Investment Promotion Department of CCPIT Academy of CCPIT Editorial Board Sponsor China Council for the Promotion of International Trade(CCPIT)Edited by Trade and Investment Promotion Department,CCPIT Academy of CCPIT Editors-in-chief LI Qingshuang Director General of Trade and Investment Promotion Dept.,CCPIT SHI Dongli Secondary Counsel of Trade and Investment Promotion Dept.,CCPIT LIU Yingkui Vice Chairman of the Academy of CCPIT Executive Editorial Board XIE Ruizhe Director of Investment Promotion Div.,Trade and Investment Promotion Dept.,CCPIT MA Lei Deputy Director of Investment Promotion Div.,Trade and Investment Promotion Dept.,CCPIT YUAN Fang Deputy Director of Investment Promotion Div.,Trade and Investment Promotion Dept.,CCPIT Coordinators LIU Yingkui XIE Ruizhe MA Lei YUAN Fang WANG Jianjun LIU Yanchen ZHANG Hongyang Copywriters LIU Yingkui DUN Zhigang LI Yuan QIN Bangyuan CAI Meng-yu Proofreaders LI Yuan QIN Bangyuan HUANG Lingmei Translation Global Tone Communication Technology Co.,Ltd Website for download http:/www.ccpit-academy.org/Contents Preface.1 I.Background And Significance Of The Research.1 II.Research Methods.2 III.Evaluation Indexes.4 IV.Respondent Composition.7 V.Main Conclusions.8 Chapter I Overall Evaluation Of Chinas Business Environment.12 I.Business Environment Has Generally Been Rated As Good.12 II.Chinas Central Region Gave The Highest Rating.14 III.Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures Gave Higher Evaluation.15 IV.Resource Industry Gave Higher Evaluation.15 Chapter II Evaluation on the Secondary Indexes of Business Environment.17 I.Infrastructure:Higher Evaluation on Environmental Protection Facilities,Improved Evaluation in The Central Region.17 II.Life-Support Service:Higher Evaluation on Environmental Protection,Lower in Sports Facilities.20 III.Policy and Government Administration:Higher Evaluation on Official Integrity,Improved in Western Region.23 IV.Social Credit:Evaluation Ranked First,with High Evaluation on Social Credit Index.27 V.Fair Competition:High Evaluation on Market Supervision,Evaluations on Secondary Indexes Generally Improved.30 VI.Rule of Law:High Evaluation on Legal Supervision and Administration by Law,High Ratings Given by Foreign-capital Enterprises.33 VII.Technological Innovation:Similar Evaluation on secondary Indexes,Evaluation on State-Owned Enterprises Increased Most.36 VIII.Human Resources:Evaluation Ranked Last,Low Evaluation on Availability of Specialized Talents.39 IX.Financial Service:Second-To-Last Index,Annual Increase of Financing Costs Decreased.43 X.Fiscal and Tax Service:Evaluation Ranked Second,With High,Evaluation on secondary Indexes.46 XI.Customs Service:High Evaluation on Inspection and Quarantine,Declined Evaluation on secondary Indexes.49 XII.Enterprise Establishment and Withdrawal:High Evaluation on Environmental Protection Procedure,Land Acquisition Improved the Most.52 Chapter III Operation and Investment Status of Enterprises.56 I.Nearly 90%Of Enterprises Were Affected by Covid-19 To Varying Degrees.56 II.The Proportion of Enterprises with Revenue Growth Has Decreased Year on Year.63 III.Rising Costs and Fierce Market Competition Have Become Prominent Problems.68 IV.Utilization of Local Resources and Market Expansion Are Major Purposes for Investment.69 V.Enterprises Expect Governments to Optimize Policy and Government Administration Index.71 Chapter IV Achievements in Business Environment Construction.73 I.Rolling Out Before Promoting Innovative Pilot Programs of Business Environment.73 II.Continuously Improved Law-Based Business Environment.77 III.A Unified Nationwide Market Gradually Formed.82 IV.The Investment Confidence of Foreign-capital Enterprises Continues to Enhance.86 V.Technological Innovation Advanced in All Aspects.90 1 Preface I.Background And Significance Of The Research Optimizing business environment is a major decision and deployment made by the Chinese government in response to the new situation,new development trend and new requirements.In the report to the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China,Xi Jinping,the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party,emphasized the need to improve the basic systems of the market economy regarding property rights protection,market access,fair competition,and social credit,and to optimize the business environment.The Report on the Work of the Government(2022)also proposed to promote the reform of streamlining administration and delegate power,improving regulation,and upgrading services around the creation of a market-oriented,rule-of-law,internationalized business environment.In recent years,despite the impact of the epidemic,the increasing downward pressure on the economy and other unfavorable factors,China has achieved certain results in optimizing the business environment.Data from the State Taxation Administration shows that in the first five months of 2022,5.547 million new tax-related market entities were established nationwide,up 6.2%year-on-year.According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics,the GDP in the first three quarters of 2022 was about CNY 87 trillion,up 3.0%year-on-year at constant prices,seeing a 0.5ster rise from the first half of the year;by industry,the primary,secondary and tertiary industries grew 4.2%,3.9%and 2.3%year-on-year,respectively.At present,as the pandemic is still spreading around the world,there is not enough momentum for the recovery of the world economy.Commodity prices fluctuate at high levels,and the international environment is becoming more complex,severe and uncertain.The 2 recovery of consumption and investment is sluggish,the difficulty of stabilizing exports is increasing,and the production and operation of small,medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are also in a pickle.Therefore,how to further optimize the business environment and stimulate market vitality is still a major issue that requires continuous attention,and creating a first-class business environment is an arduous task and of great significance.In order to give full play to the resource advantages of our trade promotion system and assist relevant departments of the state to optimize the business environment,the Department of Trade and Investment Promotion,China Council for the Promotion of International Trade(the“Promotion Department,CCPIT”)and the Academy of CCPIT have carried out survey of Chinas business environment and released annual reports for six consecutive years since 2016.On this basis,the research team continued to fulfill the mission in 2022,with the aim of closely tracking and analyzing changes in Chinas business environment,comprehensively and objectively reflecting the achievements and problems of the business environment,and making suggestions and recommendations,so as to further stimulate the creativity of enterprises and the vitality of the market and promote the stable and healthy development of the economy and society.II.Research Methods Various methods including questionnaire survey,field investigation,enterprise symposium,comparative analysis and literature analysis were adopted for this research.(I)Questionnaire survey From May to September 2022,CCPIT organized and carried out the survey of Chinas business environment in 2022 by distributing 3 questionnaires to enterprises.The research team collected 7,657 questionnaires,including 5,372 online and 2,285 offline,and more than 300 questionnaires were submitted from each of Jiangxi,Hubei,Guangxi,Gansu,Shanxi,Fujian,and Hunan.Through the enterprise questionnaire survey,the research team obtained relevant data of different regions,industries and enterprises of different ownerships,which provided objective data support for the analysis and evaluation of the national business environment.(II)Field investigation From April to September 2022,the research team went to Yunnan,Jiangxi,Jiangsu and other places,visited more than 20 special zone such as Nanchang National High-tech Industrial Development Zone and Jiangsu Free Trade Zone Nanjing Area,and held discussions with more than 700 enterprises,receiving strong support from local governments,associations,zone management committees and enterprises.The research team had face-to-face and in-depth exchanges with the members of management committees of industrial parks and representatives of enterprises to learn about the current situation,achievements and problems of the business environment in different regions from different perspectives and to verify and supplement the information on the questionnaires of enterprises,which provided support for a comprehensive and objective assessment of the business environment in China.(III)Enterprise symposium From April to September 2022,in order to steadily promote the research on Chinas business environment while implementing epidemic prevention and control measures,the research team cooperated with Guangxi and Hubei branches of CCPIT to organize an online business environment symposium with more than 200 companies,and acquired 4 abundant first-hand information.(IV)Comparative analysis The research team selected the data related to Chinas business environment in 2022 and 2021 for horizontal and vertical comparison,so as to learn about the dynamic changes among different regions,different industries(traditional manufacturing,high-tech,resource,construction and service industries)and enterprises of different nature(state-owned,state-controlled,private,Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises),have an in-depth understanding of the differences,characteristics and trends of the business environment among different regions,industries and enterprises,promote experience models for improving the business environment in different regions,and encourage them to learn from each other and make common progress.(V)Literature analysis The research team collected and sorted out domestic and foreign literature,and consulted the data of the World Bank,the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and other international organizations,the National Development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Commerce,the State Administration for Market Regulation,the National Bureau of Statistics and other ministries and commissions on optimizing the business environment.In addition,local trade promotion associations in Jiangxi,Guangxi,Hubei,Gansu,and Tianjin and local sub-councils of CCPIT also provided relevant information on the business environment,which further enriched the content of the report.III.Evaluation Indexes Referring to CCPITs Business Environment Evaluation Index System issued in 2021 and drawing lessons from and absorbing WBs 5 Doing Business Index System,the research team considered the actual situation of this year to improve improved the 2022 China Business Environment Evaluation Index System and the corresponding enterprise questionnaire.After repeated demonstration and analysis,we designed an evaluation index system for Chinas business environment in 2022 consisting of 12 primary indexes and 48 secondary indexes.Each primary index is the weighted average of the corresponding secondary indexes(Table 0-1),and the comprehensive evaluation score is obtained by taking the arithmetic average of the primary indexes.The 12 primary indexes include infrastructure environment,life-support service environment,policy and government administration environment,social credit environment,fair competition environment,rule by law environment,technology innovation environment,human resources environment,financial service environment,fiscal and tax service environment,customs service environment and enterprise establishment and withdrawal environment.Table 0-1 2022 Chinas Business Environment Evaluation Indexes Primary l indexes Secondary indexes Infrastructure Transportation(1/5)Network communication(1/5)Environmental protection facilities(1/5)Water,electricity and gas supply(1/5)Urban planning and construction(1/5)Life-Support Service Living conditions(1/6)Health care(1/6)Sports facilities(1/6)Education level(1/6)Environmental protection(1/6)Public security(1/6)Policy And Government Administration Policy equity(1/5)Efficiency of government services(1/5)Intensity of policy implementation(1/5)Official integrity(1/5)Predictability(1/5)Social Credit Construction of punishment and reward mechanism(1/3)Government credit(1/3)Construction of credit system(1/3)Fair Competition Market supervision(1/5)Administrative monopoly governance(2/5)Government procurement(1/5)Market access(1/5)6 Rule by law National Peoples Congress legislation and legal supervision(1/6)Law-based administration of government(1/6)Courts conclusion of cases on schedule(1/6)Arbitration courts conclusion of cases on schedule(1/6)Enforcement of court judgments and arbitral awards(1/6)Intellectual property rights protection(1/6)Technological Innovation Implementation of R&D tax credit policy(1/5)Intellectual property collateralization(1/5)Industry-university-research combination(1/5)Business incubation service(1/5)Public service platform construction(1/5)Enterprise-optional indexes(2):Enterprise R&D investment in science and technology,intellectual property rights application cycle Human Resources Availability of skilled labor(1/4)Availability of middle and senior managers(1/4)Availability of specialized talents(1/4)Availability of innovative and entrepreneurial talents(1/4)Enterprise-optional indexes(2):Proportion of labor cost in total cost;average annual increase rate of labor cost Financial Service Financing convenience(1/2)Diversity of financing channels(1/2)Enterprise-optional indexes(2):Proportion of financing cost in total cost;average annual increase rate of financing cost Fiscal And Tax Standardization of fiscal and tax law enforcement(1/2)Processing time for tax refund(1/2)Enterprise-optional indexes(5):Number of tax payments,tax payment processing time,total fee rate,total tax rate,export tax refund processing time Customs Service Goods clearance(1/3)Inspection and quarantine(1/3)Personnel entry and exit(1/3)Enterprise Establishment And Withdrawal Land acquisition(1/3)Environmental protection procedure(1/3)Bankruptcy procedure(1/3)7 IV.Respondent Composition(I)Over 70%of the surveyed enterprises are private businesses In this survey,76.3%of the surveyed enterprises are private enterprises;state-owned and state-controlled enterprises(hereinafter referred to as“state-owned enterprises”)and enterprises of other types both account for about 7.2%;wholly foreign-owned enterprises account for 5.4%;and Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises account for 4.0%.(II)Traditional manufacturing enterprises account for one-third Among the enterprises involved in the survey,33.2%are engaged in traditional manufacturing,21.2%in service industry,11.3%in high-tech industry,3.3%in construction industry,2.6%in resource industry,and 29.6%in other industries.7.2v.3%4.0%5.4%7.2%figure0-1 Distribution of Surveyed Enterprises by OwnershipState-owned and state-controlledPrivateSino-foreign joint ventures andcooperative enterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthers33.2.3%2.6%3.3!.2(.5%figure0-2 Distribution of Surveyed Enterprises by IndustryTraditional manufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthers 8(III)Small and micro enterprises account for nearly 70%Among the enterprises involved in the survey,68.4%are small and micro businesses with 100 or less employees;22.4%have 100-500 employees;6.8%have 500-2000 employees;and 2.5%are super large enterprises with 2000 or more employees.(IV)Nearly 70%of the surveyed enterprises have been continuously operating for more than five years Among the enterprises involved in the survey,5.6%are new enterprises with a history of less than one year,14.1%with 1-3 years,12%with 3-5 years,and 68.3%with more than 5 years.V.Main Conclusions(I)Enterprises generally gave good ratings for Chinas business environment in 2022 68.4.4%6.8%2.5%figure0-3 Distribution of Surveyed Enterprises by Size100 employees and below100-500 employees500-2000 employees2000 employees and above5.6.1.0h.3%figure0-4 Duration of Continuous Operation of Surveyed EnterprisesLess than 1 year1-3 years3-5 yearsMore than 5 years 9 At present,the world is becoming more complicated,severe and uncertain,and the risks and challenges facing Chinas development have increased significantly.In 2022,the Party Central Committee and the State Council coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development,considered development and security in an overall perspective,continued to ensure stability on six key fronts and maintain security in six key areas,improved peoples livelihood,focused on stabilizing the macroeconomic market,and maintained the economic operation within a reasonable range.The rating for Chinas business environment in 2022 is 4.38 points,the same as that in 2021.Of the scores of the 12 primary indexes,6 have increased,1 has kept level with the previous years rating,and 5 have declined,compared with 2021.Among them,social credit environment received the highest rating,followed by fiscal and tax service environment,social legal environment,customs service environment and fair competition environment;the scores of financial service environment and human resources environment are relatively low.The central region,Sino-foreign joint ventures and the resource industry contributed higher ratings.The new dual-cycle pattern and the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative have brought vast opportunities to the western region of China.With the joint efforts of the government,relevant service agencies,and enterprises,the rating on the business environment in the western region of China improved significantly in 2022.As the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic continued to expand in 2022,nearly 90%of the enterprises were negatively affected to varying degrees,and the number of companies with year-on-year revenue growth decreased by 13.2%compared with 2021.Forty-seven percent of 10 companies reflected that their supply chains were affected,and half of them have taken or may take measures to reduce expenditures and adjust business strategies to cope with the impact of the epidemic.Despite many difficulties in production and operation,only 7%of the enterprises are pessimistic about future development.To minimize the impact of the epidemic,more than 60%of the enterprises expect subsidies and tax breaks from the government to help them tide over the difficulties.In the meantime,over 70%of them achieved revenue growth in 2022.“Utilization of local resources”and“market expansion”are major drivers for enterprisesinvestment in 2022.Rising costs and fierce market competition are the main problems encountered by the enterprises in the production and operation.The enterprises hope that the government can further optimize the policy and government administration environment,introduce upstream and downstream supporting enterprises and trading and logistics enterprises,and help them restore production and operation order.(II)Chinas business environment has been continuously improved 1.Pilot reform measures have been promoted across the country to advance the innovation and reform of business environment.In October 2022,the Party Central Committee and the State Council decided to replicate and promote a number of pilot business environment innovation and reform measures across the country to expand the effect of the reform and promote the overall improvement of business environment nationwide.2.The law-based bu siness environment has been continuously improved.In 2022,various legislative,judicial,and law enforcement agencies took multiple measures to promote the construction of a law-based business environment by improving the legal system,raising the 11 level of protection of intellectual property rights,and maintaining the fairness and healthy development of the market.3.A unified nationwide market has been gradually formed.In April 2022,the Party Central Committee and the State Council proposed to accelerate the construction of a unified national market.As all local departments introduced relevant regulatory measures,the costs of institutional transactions across regions and departments have gradually decreased,and market barriers have been removed.4.The confidence of foreign-capital enterprises in investing in China has been continuously enhanced.Stabilizing foreign investment is a key basis to expand opening to the outside world.The Party Central Committee and the State Council have successively issued a series of documents and policies to help foreign-capital enterprises tide over their difficulties.In addition,the CCPIT has set up a task force to serve foreign-capital enterprises to further strengthen their confidence in taking root in China.5.China has intensified support for scientific and technological innovation in an all-round way.General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that we must regard science and technology as our primary productive force,and innovation as our primary driver of growth.In 2022,China strengthened the top-level institutional innovation,improved the transformation mechanism of scientific and technological achievements,enhanced fiscal and taxation support,and continuously activated the innovation vitality of enterprises.12 Chapter I Overall Evaluation Of Chinas Business Environment According to the survey questionnaire,the overall rating of surveyed enterprises on Chinas business environment in 2022 is 4.38,the same as that in 2021.More than 40%of the surveyed enterprises are very satisfied with Chinas business environment,and more than 60lieve that the business environment has improved in the past three years.I.Business Environment Has Generally Been Rated As Good(I)More than 40%of the surveyed enterprises are very satisfied with the business environment The surveyed enterprises are generally satisfied with Chinas business environment,with 42.89ing very satisfied and 53.57ing basically satisfied;those who rated“merely fair”account for 3.49%;and only 0.05%think that Chinas business environment is bad.(II)About 60%of the enterprises surveyed believe that the business environment has improved in the past three years 30.81%of the enterprises surveyed believe that Chinas business Note:The data involved in Chapters I,II,and III of this report are mainly derived from the questionnaire survey of enterprises on business environment organized by CCPIT in 2022.0.05%3.49S.57B.89%figure1-1 Satisfaction with Chinas Business Environment,2022PoorAverageBasically satisfiedVery satisfied 13 environment has improved significantly in the past three years;33.19lieve that it has somewhat improved;9.59%see no change;26.4el that it has worsened(including seriously worsened and somewhat worsened),and this proportion is higher than that in 2021(6.2%).(III)The enterprises surveyed generally rate Chinas business environment as good,with the highest score appearing on social credit Chinas business environment scores 4.38 in 2022,the same as in 2021,reaching a good level.Among the indexes,social credit gains the highest score of 4.53,while fiscal and tax service environment(4.52)and rule by law environment(4.50)are also at an excellent level.Human resources environment is rated the worst with 4.06 points,followed by financial service environment with 4.11 points.The surveyed enterprises overall rating on Chinas business environment in 2022 is the same as that in 2021.Among the 12 primary indexes,the ratings on 6 indexes have improved,with enterprise establishment and withdrawal environment seeing the largest increase of 0.07 points,followed by infrastructure environment(0.05 points)and social credit(0.02 points);the scores of technology innovation environment and human resources environment have increased by 0.02 points,and those on fiscal and tax service environment has remained the 30.813.19%9.59.52%9.88%figure1-2 Improvement of Chinas Business Environment in the Past Three YearsImproved significantlySomewhat improvedNot improvedWorsenedSeriously worsened 14 same as in 2021.II.Chinas Central Region Gave The Highest Rating By region,the central region has gained the highest rating of the business environment(4.47 points),the western region is in the middle(4.32 points),and the eastern region is at the bottom(4.31 points).Compared with 2021,the rating on the business environment in the western region in 2022 has increased by 0.14 points;as the eastern and central regions were significantly affected by objective factors such as the BusinessEnvironmentInfrastructureLife-supportServicePolicyMaking&GovernmentAdministrationSocialCreditFairCompetitionRule byLawTechnologicalInnovationHumanResourcesFinancialServiceFiscalandTaxServiceCustomsServiceEnterpriseEstablishmentandWithdrawal20214.384.354.334.454.514.444.514.434.044.174.524.514.3620224.384.404.304.374.534.464.504.454.064.114.524.484.43Difference0.000.05-0.03-0.080.020.02-0.010.020.02-0.060.00-0.030.07-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.020.000.020.040.060.083.703.803.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.60figure1-3 Comparison of Business Environment Rating by Year4.564.494.184.314.474.32-0.25-0.020.14-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.203.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.60Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure1-4 Comparison of Business Environment Rating by Region20212022Difference 15 COVID-19 epidemic,and the ratings have decreased by 0.25 and 0.02 points respectively.III.Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures Gave Higher Evaluation In terms of ownership,Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest score of 4.51 on Chinas business environment,while private enterprises have given the lowest score of 4.32.The ratings of wholly foreign-owned enterprises,enterprises of other ownership and state-owned enterprises are in the middle,being 4.47,4.41 and 4.36 points respectively.Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships in 2022 have increased their ratings by 0.21 points,followed by wholly foreign-owned enterprises(whose ratings have increased by 0.01 points);the ratings of state-owned enterprises,private enterprises and Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have decreased by 0.09,0.04 and 0.01 points respectively.IV.Resource Industry Gave Higher Evaluation Among the industries,the resource industry has the highest rating on Chinas business environment,with a score of 4.53,followed by the 4.454.364.524.464.204.364.324.514.474.41-0.09-0.04-0.010.010.21-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.254.004.104.204.304.404.504.60State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateSino-foreignjoint venturesandcooperativeenterprisesWhollyforeign-ownedOthersfigure1-5 Comparison of Business Environment Ratings of Enterprises of Different Ownerships by Year20212022Difference 16 construction industry,with a score of 4.46;the high-tech industry and other industries both have the lowest,4.32 points;the ratings of traditional manufacturing and service industries are 4.36 points,which is in the middle level.Compared with 2021,the construction industrys rating on Chinas business environment has increased the most in 2022(by 0.23 points),followed by the resource industry and service industry with an increase of 0.14 and 0.11 points respectively;other industries rating has declined significantly(by 0.09 points);the ratings of the traditional manufacturing and high-tech industries have decreased by 0.07 and 0.05 points,respectively.4.434.374.384.234.254.414.364.324.534.464.364.32-0.07-0.050.140.230.11-0.09-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.254.054.104.154.204.254.304.354.404.454.504.55TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure1-6 Comparison of Business Environment Ratings of Enterprises of Different Industries by Year 20212022Difference 17 Chapter II Evaluation on the Secondary Indexes of Business Environment The evaluation system for Chinas business environment consists of 12 primary indexes such as infrastructure,policy&government administration,social credit and customs service environment and 48 sencondary indexes.The questionnaire survey shows that the enterprises generally rate Chinas business environment as good in 2022,as the scores of six primary indexes have improved compared with 2021.I.Infrastructure:Higher Evaluation on Environmental Protection Facilities,Improved Evaluation in The Central Region The infrastructure environment index is sub-divided into five secondary indexes,i.e.,transportation,network communications,water,electricity and gas supply,environmental protection facilities,and urban planning and construction.In 2022,infrastructure environment is given a score of 4.40 points,increasing by 0.05 points from 2021 to rank 8th among the 12 primary indexes.(I)High evaluation on environmental protection facilities and low evaluation on transportation Among the secondary indexes,environmental protection facilities has the highest score(4.45 points),followed by water,electricity and gas supply(4.42 points);transportation receives the lowest evaluation with 4.35 points;network communications and urban planning and construction are in the middle with 4.41 and 4.38 points respectively.18 Compared with 2021,the score of transportation has achieved the greatest increase(0.12 points),followed by urban planning and construction and environmental protection facilities both with an increase of 0.05 points;the score of network communications has increased by 0.03 points;water,electricity and gas supply are the only secondary index under infrastructure environment with negative growth(decreased by 0.01 points).(II)High evaluation in central region,declined evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on infrastructure is received in the central region,at 4.52 points,up 0.08 points from 2021;the rating of the western region is 4.46 points,up 0.31 points from 2021;the eastern region has only given 4.43 points on infrastructure,down 0.1 points from 2021.4.534.444.154.434.524.46-0.10 0.09 0.31-0.200.000.200.403.804.004.204.404.60Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure2-1-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Infrastructure Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference4.234.384.434.404.334.354.414.424.454.380.12 0.03-0.01 0.05 0.05-0.020.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.144.104.154.204.254.304.354.404.454.50TransportationNetworkcommunicationsWater,electricityand gas supplyEnvironmentalprotectionfacilitiesUrban planningand constructionfigure2-1-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Infrastructure Environment20212022Difference 19(III)Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given higher ratings,while those of private enterprises are lower Enterprises of different ownerships have certain differences in the evaluation of the infrastructure environment.Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest ratings(4.51 points),followed by state-owned enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises,and other enterprises(4.50 points),while private enterprises have given the lowest(4.46 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships have increased their ratings the most,by 0.36 points,followed by state-owned enterprises and private enterprises(whose ratings both have increased by 0.12 points).The ratings of wholly foreign-owned enterprises and Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have increased by 0.02 and 0.04 points respectively.(IV)The rating of the resource industry is high,and that of the high-tech industry is low Among the industries,the resource industry has the highest rating on the infrastructure environment,with 4.63 points,followed by the construction industry,with 4.57 points;the high-tech industry has the 4.384.344.474.484.144.504.464.514.504.500.120.120.040.020.350.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.403.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.60State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesandcooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure2-1-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Infrastructure Environment20212022Difference 20 lowest,with 4.41 points;the ratings of the service industry,traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle with 4.54 points,4.46 points and 4.44 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction and resource industries have increased their ratings significantly by 0.37 and 0.30 points respectively in 2022,followed by the service industry(whose rating has increased by 0.27 points);the ratings of the high-tech industry,other industries and traditional manufacturing industry have slightly increased by 0.09,0.08 and 0.06 points respectively.II.Life-Support Service:Higher Evaluation on Environmental Protection,Lower in Sports Facilities The life-support service environment index is sub-divided into six secondary indexes,i.e.,living conditions,health care,sports facilities,education level,environmental protection and public security.In 2022,life-support service environment is given a score of 4.30 points,increasing by 0.05 points from 2021 to rank 10th among the 12 primaryl indexes.(I)Highest evaluation on environmental protection,low evaluation on sports facilities Among the secondary indexes,environmental protection has the 4.404.324.324.194.274.364.464.414.634.574.544.440.060.090.300.370.270.080.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.403.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure2-1-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Infrastructure Environment 20212022Difference 21 highest score(4.40 points),while sports facilities have the lowest(4.23 points);the scores of living conditions,education level,public security,and health care are 4.32 points,4.30 points,4.27 points,and 4.25 points,respectively.Compared with 2021,the score of education level has increased most(by 0.09 points),and that of environmental protection has increased by 0.04 points;the rating on sports facilities has remained the same;the evaluations on public security,living conditions and health care have all shown negative growth,decreasing by 0.26,0.04 and 0.03 points respectively.(II)High evaluation in central region and low evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on life-support service environment is received in the central region,at 4.35 points,down 0.08 points from 2021;the rating of the western region is 4.31 points,up 0.17 points from 2021;the evaluation of the eastern region has dropped by 0.26 points from 2021 to 4.21 points only.4.364.274.234.224.364.534.324.254.234.304.404.27-0.04-0.03 0.01 0.09 0.04-0.26-0.30-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.154.004.104.204.304.404.504.60Living conditionsHealth careSports facilitiesEducation levelEnvironmentalProtectionPublic securityfigure2-2-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Life-support Service Environment20212022Difference 22(III)Enterprises of other ownerships have given higher ratings,while those of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises are lower Among different types of enterprises,enterprises of other ownerships have given the highest ratings on life-support service environment(4.44 points),followed by wholly foreign-owned enterprises(4.33 points),Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises(4.30 points)and private enterprises(4.29 points),while state-owned enterprises have given the lowest(4.28 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships have increased their ratings the most,by 0.27 points.The ratings of Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises,state-owned enterprises and private enterprises have all fallen down by 0.14,0.10,0.08 and 0.03 points,respectively.4.484.434.144.214.354.31-0.26-0.08 0.17-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.203.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.60Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure2-2-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Life-support Service Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference4.364.324.444.434.064.284.294.304.334.34-0.08-0.03-0.14-0.100.27-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.303.804.004.204.404.60State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure2-2-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Life-support Service Environment20212022Difference 23(IV)The rating of the construction industry is high,and that of the high-tech industry is low Among the industries,the construction industry has the highest rating on the life-support service environment,with 4.47 points,followed by the resource industry,with 4.41 points;the high-tech industry has the lowest,with 4.24 points;the ratings of the service industry,traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle with 4.37 points,4.28 points and 4.25 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction and service industries have increased their ratings significantly by 0.33 and 0.12 points respectively,followed by the resource industry(whose rating has increased by 0.08 points);the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry,other industries and high-tech industry have slightly decreased by 0.09,0.09 and 0.05 points respectively.III.Policy and Government Administration:Higher Evaluation on Official Integrity,Improved in Western Region The policy and government administration environment index is sub-divided into four secondary indexes,i.e.,intensity of policy implementation,policy equity,efficiency of government services,and 4.404.324.324.194.274.364.464.414.634.574.544.440.060.090.300.370.270.080.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.403.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure2-2-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Infrastructure Environment20212022Difference 24 official integrity.In 2022,policy and government administration environment are given a score of 4.37 points,decreasing by 0.08 points from 2021 to rank 9th among the 12 primary indexes.(I)Highest evaluation on official integrity,low evaluation on intensity of policy implementation Among the secondary indexes,the score of official integrity is the highest,at 4.40 points,reaching the excellent level,followed by that of efficiency of government services(4.38);the ratings on intensity of policy implementation and policy equity are also good,at 4.36 and 4.37 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the scores of all four secondary indexes have decreased in 2022,with that of policy equity having the least downfall(0.07 points),followed by that of efficiency of government services(0.08 points);the scores of official integrity and intensity of policy implementation have decreased by 0.12 and 0.09 points respectively.(II)Highest evaluation in central region,declined evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on policy and government administration environment is received in the central region,at 4.43 points,4.454.444.464.524.384.364.374.384.404.32-0.09-0.07-0.08-0.12-0.05-0.14-0.12-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.020.004.204.254.304.354.404.454.504.55Intensity ofpolicyimplementationPolicy equityEfficiency ofgovernmentservicesOfficial integrity Predictabilityfigure2-3-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Policy and Government Administration Environment20212022Difference 25 down 0.12 points from 2021;the rating of the western region is 4.38 points,up 0.13 points from 2021;the eastern region has only given 4.28 points,down 0.33 points from 2021.(III)Wholly foreign-owned enterprises and enterprises of other ownerships have given higher ratings,while that of state-owned enterprises is lower Among different types of enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises and enterprises of other ownerships have given the highest ratings on policy and government administration environment(4.40 points),followed by private enterprises(4.37 points)and Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises(4.34 points),while state-owned enterprises have given the lowest(4.30 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships in 2022 have increased their ratings by 0.19 points,while private enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises have decreased their ratings by 0.07,0.12 and 0.20 points respectively.The greatest fall is seen in the rating of Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises,4.614.554.254.284.434.38-0.33-0.12 0.13-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.204.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure2-3-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Policy and Government Administration Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference 26 down 0.26 points.(IV)The rating of the resource industry is high,while negative ratings are given by multiple industries Among the industries,the resource industry has the highest rating on the policy and government administration environment,with 4.51 points,followed by the construction industry,with 4.48 points;the high-tech industry has the lowest,with 4.33 points;the ratings of the service industry,other industries and traditional manufacturing industry are in the middle with 4.40,4.36 and 4.34 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction industry has increased their ratings significantly by 0.28 points in 2022,followed by the resource and service industries(whose ratings both have increased by 0.08 points);the 4.504.444.604.524.214.304.374.344.404.40-0.20-0.07-0.26-0.120.19-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.304.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure2-3-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Policy and Government Administration Environment20212022Difference4.504.474.434.204.334.454.344.334.514.484.404.36-0.17-0.140.080.280.08-0.09-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.304.004.104.204.304.404.504.60TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure2-3-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Policy and Government Administration Environment20212022Difference 27 ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry,high-tech industry,and other industries have dropped by 0.17,0.14 and 0.09 points respectively.IV.Social Credit:Evaluation Ranked First,with High Evaluation on Social Credit Index The social credit environment index is sub-divided into three secondary indexes,i.e.,social credit,construction of credit system,and construction of punishment and reward mechanism.In 2022,the surveyed enterprises rate the social credit environment as generally good(4.53 points),which ranks 1st among the 12 primary indexes.(I)High evaluation on social credit,construction of punishment and reward mechanism to be strengthened Among the secondary indexes,the score of social credit is the highest,at 4.53 points,followed by that of construction of credit system(4.52 points),both reaching the excellent level.Construction of punishment and reward mechanism is lowly rated at 4.47 points.Compared with 2021,the construction of credit system has realized the greatest improvement(0.14 points)in 2022,followed by the construction of punishment and reward mechanism(0.11 points).The score of social credit has increased by 0.07 points.4.534.524.474.554.554.510.02 0.03 0.04 0.000.010.020.030.040.054.424.444.464.484.504.524.544.56 Social(government)creditConstruction of creditsystemConstruction ofpunishment andreward mechanismfigure2-4-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Social Credit Environment20212022Difference 28(II)Much increased rating in western region,declined evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on social credit environment is received in the central region,at 4.59 points,up 0.01 points from 2021;the rating of the western region is 4.52 points,up 0.20 points from 2021;the rating of the eastern region is 4.50 points only,down 0.17 points from 2021.(III)Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given highest ratings,while those of private enterprises are in the middle Among different types of enterprises,Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest ratings on social credit environment(4.60 points),followed by enterprises of other ownerships(4.58 points),wholly foreign-owned enterprises(4.57 points),and state-owned enterprises(4.55 points),while private enterprises have given the lowest(4.52 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships have increased their ratings the most,by 0.27 points,followed by private enterprises,state-owned enterprises and wholly foreign-owned enterprises(whose ratings have increased by 0.02,0.01 and 0.01 points respectively).The ratings of Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have gone down by 4.674.584.324.504.594.52-0.17 0.01 0.20-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.304.104.204.304.404.504.604.704.80Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure 2-4-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Social Credit Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference 29 0.05 points.(IV)The rating of the construction industry has improved significantly,while three industries have decreased theirs Among the industries,the construction industry has the highest rating on the social credit environment,with 4.65 points,followed by the resource and service industries with 4.62 and 4.57 points respectively;the high-tech industry has the lowest,with 4.49 points;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle,with 4.53 points and 4.51 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction and service industries have increased their ratings significantly by 0.39 and 0.22 points in 2022,followed by the resource industry(whose rating has increased by 0.15 4.554.504.654.564.314.554.524.604.574.580.010.02-0.050.010.27-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.250.304.104.204.304.404.504.604.70State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure 2-4-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Social Credit Environment20212022Difference4.554.524.464.264.354.544.534.494.624.654.574.51-0.02-0.030.150.390.22-0.04-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.504.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure 2-4-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Social Credit Environment20212022Difference 30 points);the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry,high-tech industry,and other industries have dropped by 0.02,0.03 and 0.04 points respectively.V.Fair Competition:High Evaluation on Market Supervision,Evaluations on Secondary Indexes Generally Improved The fair competition environment index is sub-divided into four secondary indexes,i.e.,market supervision,administrative monopoly governance,government procurement and market access.The surveyed enterprises have generally rated the fair competition environment as satisfactory,and with the score of 4.46 points,it ranks 5th among the 12 primary indexes.(I)High evaluation on market supervision,low evaluation on government procurement and administrative monopoly governance Among the secondary indexes,market supervision has scored the highest,at 4.50 points,followed by market access at 4.48 points;the scores of government procurement and administrative monopoly governance are low,at 4.45 and 4.44 points respectively.Compared with 2021,government procurement and market access has realized the greatest improvement(0.03 points)in 2022,followed by market supervision(0.02 points).The score of administrative monopoly 4.484.434.434.454.504.444.454.480.02 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.000.010.020.030.044.384.404.424.444.464.484.504.52 Market supervision AdministrativemonopolygovernanceGovernmentprocurementStrategic support formarket accessfigure 2-5-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Fair Competition Environment20212022Difference 31 governance has increased slightly by 0.01 points.(II)High evaluation in central region,greatly improved evaluation in western region Among the regions,the highest rating on fair competition environment is received in the central region,at 4.53 points,down 0.01 points from 2021;the rating of the western region has improved the most by 0.19 points to 4.43 points;the rating of the eastern region is 4.42 points only,down 0.20 points from 2021.(III)Ratings of enterprises of other ownerships have increased the most,while those of state-owned and Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have decreased Among different types of enterprises,Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest ratings on fair competition environment(4.54 points),followed by enterprises of other ownerships(4.50 points),while state-owned enterprises and private enterprises have given the lowest(4.46 and 4.44 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of different ownerships have increased their ratings on fair competition environment in 2022.Enterprises of other ownerships in 2022 have increased their ratings the most by 0.33 points,followed by Sino-foreign joint ventures and 4.674.584.324.504.594.52-0.17 0.01 0.20-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.304.104.204.304.404.504.604.704.80Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure 2-5-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Social Credit Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference 32 cooperative enterprises(whose ratings have increased by 0.13 points);the ratings of state-owned enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises and private enterprises have increased by 0.06,0.02 and 0.01 points respectively.(IV)The ratings of the construction industry have increased significantly,while those of the traditional manufacturing industry,high-tech industry and other industries have declined Among the industries,the resource industry has the highest rating on the fair competition environment,with 4.60 points,followed by the construction and service industries with 4.56 and 4.48 points respectively;the high-tech industry has the lowest,with 4.42 points;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle,with 4.45 and 4.43 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction,service and resource industries have increased their ratings significantly by 0.16,0.20 and 0.34 points in 2022;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry,high-tech industry,and other industries have dropped by 0.05,0.04 and 0.03 points respectively.4.554.504.654.564.314.554.524.604.574.580.010.02-0.050.010.27-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.250.304.104.204.304.404.504.604.70State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure 2-5-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Social Credit Environment20212022Difference 33 VI.Rule of Law:High Evaluation on Legal Supervision and Administration by Law,High Ratings Given by Foreign-capital Enterprises The rule by law environment index is sub-divided into five secondary indexes,i.e.,legal supervision,law-based administration of government,courts and arbitration courts conclusion of cases on schedule,enforcement of court judgments and arbitral awards,and intellectual property rights protection.In 2022,the surveyed enterprises rate rule by law environment as generally good(4.50 points),which ranks 3rd among the 12 primary indexes.(I)Highest evaluation on legal supervision,declined ratings on most secondary indexes Among the secondary indexes,legal supervision has the highest score of 4.52 points,followed by law-based administration of government and intellectual property rights protection with 4.52 and 4.50 points;the scores of courts and arbitration courts conclusion of cases on schedule and enforcement of court judgments and arbitral awards are low,at 4.48 and 4.47 points respectively.4.554.524.464.264.354.544.534.494.624.654.574.51-0.02-0.030.150.390.22-0.04-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.504.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure2-5-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Social Credit Environment20212022Difference 34 Compared with 2021,the score of enforcement of court judgments and arbitral awards has decreased the most(by 0.02 points),followed by those of law-based administration of government and courts and arbitration courts conclusion of cases on schedule(both by 0.01 points).The ratings on legal supervision and intellectual property rights protection remain the same as in 2021.(II)High evaluation in central region,declined evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on rule by law environment is received in the central region,at 4.54 points;the rating of the western region is 4.49 points,in the middle;and the rating of the eastern region is 4.47 points only.Compared with 2021,the rating of the western region has increased by 0.16 points,that of the central region has decreased by 0.04 points,and 4.53 4.53 4.49 4.49 4.50 4.524.524.484.474.500.00-0.01-0.01-0.02 0.00-0.02-0.02-0.01-0.010.000.014.424.444.464.484.504.524.54Legal supervisionLaw-basedadministration ofgovernmentCourts and arbitration courts conclusion of cases on scheduleEnforcement ofcourt judgmentsand arbitralawardsIntellectualproperty rightsprotectionfigure2-6-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Rule by Law Environment20212022Difference4.674.584.334.474.544.49-0.21-0.04 0.16-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.204.004.204.404.604.80Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure2-6-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Rule by Law Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference 35 that of the eastern region has decreased by 0.21 points.(III)Wholly foreign-owned enterprises have given higher ratings,while those of private enterprises are lower Among different types of enterprises,wholly foreign-owned enterprises have given the highest ratings on rule by law environment(4.56 points),followed by Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises(4.54 points)and enterprises of other ownerships(4.54 points),while private enterprises(4.49 points)state-owned enterprises(4.50 points)have given the lowest.Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships have increased their ratings the most,by 0.29 points.The ratings of Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises,state-owned enterprises,private enterprises and wholly foreign-owned enterprises are have all fallen down by 0.13,0.06,0.02 and 0.01 points,respectively.(IV)The rating of the construction industry is high,and that of the high-tech industry is low Among the industries,the construction industry has the highest rating on the rule by law environment,with 4.62 points,followed by the resource and service industries with 4.59 and 4.53 points respectively;the high-tech 4.564.504.664.574.254.504.494.544.564.54-0.06-0.02-0.13-0.010.29-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.404.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure2-6-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Rule by Law Environment20212022Difference 36 industry has the lowest,with 4.44 points;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle,with 4.51 and 4.45 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction industry has increased their ratings the most by 0.30 points respectively in 2022,followed by the service and resource industries(whose ratings have increased by 0.17 and 0.09 points respectively).The ratings of other industries,the high-tech industry and traditional manufacturing industry have all declined by 0.08,0.07 and 0.04 points,respectively.VII.Technological Innovation:Similar Evaluation on secondary Indexes,Evaluation on State-Owned Enterprises Increased Most The technological innovation environment index is sub-divided into five secondary indexes,i.e.,implementation of R&D tax credit policy,intellectual property collateralization,industry-university-research combination,business incubation service,and public service platform construction.In 2022,technological innovation environment is given a score of 4.45 points,ranking 6th among the 12 primary indexes.(I)Close evaluations on secondary indexes,implementation of R&D tax credit policy highly rated The scores of the five secondary indexes of technological innovation environment are close.Among them,the score of implementations of R&D tax credit policy is the highest,at 4.47 points,followed by that of public 4.554.524.514.324.374.544.514.444.594.624.534.45-0.04-0.070.090.300.17-0.08-0.200.000.200.404.004.204.404.604.80TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure 2-6-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Rule by Law Environment20212022Difference 37 service platform construction(4.46 points);the scores of intellectual property collateralization and industry-university-research combination are slightly lower,at 4.45 and 4.44 points,respectively.Compared with 2021,the ratings on industry-university-research combination and public service platform construction in 2022 has increased the most,both by 0.03 points,followed by those of business incubation service(by 0.02 points)and intellectual property collateralization(by 0.01 points).The score of implementations of R&D tax credit policy remains the same as that in 2021.(II)Evaluation in western region improved greatly,declined evaluation in eastern and central regions Among the regions,the highest rating on technological innovation is received in the central region,at 4.50 points;the rating of the western region is lower at 4.44 points;and the rating of the eastern region has declined,at 4.42 points only.Compared with 2021,the rating of the western region has increased by 0.20 points,that of the central region has decreased by 0.03 points,and 4.474.444.414.414.444.474.454.444.434.460.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.000.010.010.020.020.030.030.044.384.404.424.444.464.48Implementationsof R&D tax creditpolicyIntellectualpropertycollateralizationIndustry-university-researchcombinationBusinessincubationservicePublic serviceplatformconstructionfigure 2-7-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Technological Innovation Environment20212022Difference 38 that of the eastern region has decreased by 0.19 points.(III)Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest ratings,while those of other ownerships are low Among different types of enterprises,Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the highest ratings on technological innovation environment(4.58 points),followed by wholly foreign-owned enterprises(4.52 points),enterprises of other ownerships(4.49 points),and state-owned enterprises(4.47 points),while private enterprises have given the lowest(4.44 points).Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships in 2022 have increased their ratings the most by 0.30 points,followed by wholly foreign-owned enterprises(whose ratings have increased by 0.05 points);the ratings of state-owned enterprises and Sino-foreign joint ventures and 4.614.534.234.424.504.44-0.19-0.03 0.20-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.304.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure 2-7-2 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Technological Innovation Environment20212022Difference4.484.434.594.464.194.474.444.584.524.49-0.020.00-0.010.050.30-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.353.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.70State-owned andstate-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure 2-7-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Technological Innovation Environment20212022Difference 39 cooperative enterprises have decreased by 0.02 and 0.01 points respectively.The ratings of private enterprises are the same as those in 2021.(IV)The rating of the resource industry is high,while ratings of three industries have declined Among the industries,the resource industry has the highest rating on the technological innovation environment,with 4.58 points,followed by the construction,service,and traditional manufacturing industries with 4.56,4.48 and 4.46 points respectively;the high-tech industry and other industries have given lower ratings,with 4.44 and 4.40 points respectively.Compared with 2021,the construction,service and resource industries have increased their ratings significantly by 0.33,0.20 and 0.16 points in 2022;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing industry,high-tech industry,and other industries have declined by 0.03,0.02 and 0.06 points respectively.VIII.Human Resources:Evaluation Ranked Last,Low Evaluation on Availability of Specialized Talents The human resources environment index is sub-divided into four secondary indexes,i.e.,availability of skilled labor,availability of middle and senior managers,availability of innovative and entrepreneurial talents,and availability of specialized talents.In 2022,human resource 4.484.464.424.224.284.464.464.444.584.564.484.40-0.03-0.020.160.330.20-0.06-0.200.000.200.404.004.204.404.604.80TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure 2-7-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Technological Innovation Environment20212022Difference 40 environment ranks the last among the 12 primary indexes,with only 4.06 points.(I)High evaluation on availability of skilled labor,low evaluation on availability of innovative and entrepreneurial talents Among the secondary indexes,availability of skilled labor has the highest score of 4.12 points,followed by availability of middle and senior managers and availability of specialized talents,with 4.08 and 4.06 points,while the rating on availability of innovative and entrepreneurial talents is the lowest,at 4.01 points only.Compared with 2021,the availability of innovative and entrepreneurial talents has improved the most(by 0.04 points)in 2022;the availability of middle and senior managers and specialized talents have improved to some extent(by 0.03 and 0.02 points);and the availability of skilled labor has improved slightly(by 0.01 points).According to the surveyed enterprises,in 2022,labor costs account for 26.75%of the total costs,up 0.48%from 2021,and the average annual increase in labor costs is 9.46%,up 1.46%from 2021.(II)Evaluation improved significantly in western region,lowest evaluation in eastern region Among the regions,the highest rating on human resources 4.114.044.043.974.124.084.064.010.01 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.000.010.010.020.020.030.030.040.043.903.954.004.054.104.15Availability of skilledlaborAvailability ofmiddle and seniormanagersAvailability ofspecialized talentsAvailability ofinnovative andentrepreneurialtalentsfigure 2-8-1 Evaluation on Sub-divided Indexes of Human Resources Environment20212022Difference 41 environment is received in the western region,at 4.09 points,up 0.18 points from 2021;the rating of the central region is 4.08 points,down 0.03 points from 2021;and enterprises in the eastern region have only given 4.00 points,down 0.15 points from 2021.(III)Enterprises of other ownerships have given higher ratings,while those of Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises are lower Among different types of enterprises,enterprises of other ownerships have given the highest ratings on fair competition environment(4.18 points),followed by wholly foreign-owned enterprises(4.12 points),while Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises have given the lowest(4.03 points only).The ratings of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are in the middle level,at 4.09 and 4.05 points respectively.Compared with 2021,enterprises of other ownerships have increased their ratings the most,by 0.16 points,followed by Sino-foreign joint ventures and cooperative enterprises and private enterprises(whose ratings both have increased by 0.06 and 0.02 points).The ratings of state-owned enterprises have gone down by 0.08 points.The ratings of wholly foreign-4.154.123.924.004.084.09-0.15-0.03 0.18-0.20-0.100.000.100.203.803.904.004.104.20Eastern regionCentral regionWestern regionfigure 2-8-2 Evaluation of Enterprises on Human Resources Environment in Different Regions20212022Difference 42 owned enterprises remain the same as in 2021.(IV)The rating of the construction industry is highest,and that of the high-tech industry is lowest Among the industries,the construction industry has the highest rating on the human resources environment,with 4.24 points,followed by the resource industry,with 4.22 points;the high-tech industry has the lowest,with 3.90 points;the ratings of the service industry,traditional manufacturing industry and other industries are in the middle with 4.15,4.03 and 4.07 points respectively.4.174.023.974.124.024.094.054.034.124.18-0.080.020.060.000.16-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.203.853.903.954.004.054.104.154.20State-ownedand state-controlledPrivateenterprisesSino-foreignjoint venturesand cooperativeenterprisesWholly foreign-ownedOthersfigure 2-8-3 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Ownerships on Human Resources Environment20212022Difference3.973.944.263.914.044.164.033.904.224.244.154.070.06-0.04-0.040.330.11-0.09-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.403.703.803.904.004.104.204.30TraditionalmanufacturingHigh-techResourceConstructionServiceOthersfigure 2-8-4 Evaluation of Enterprises of Different Industries on Human Resources Environment20212022Difference 43 Compared with 2021,the construction industry has increased their ratings the most,by 0.33 points in 2022;the ratings of the traditional manufacturing and service industries have improved slightly,by 0.06 and 0.11 points respectively;and the ratings of the high-tech industry,other industries and resource industry have declined by 0.04,0.04 and 0.09 points respectively.IX.Financial Service:Second-To-Last Index,Annual Increase of Financing Costs Decreased The financial service environment index is sub-divided into two secondary indexes,i.e.,financing convenience and diversity of financing channels.In 2022,the overall evaluation on the financial service environment by the survey
市内免税店深度全解:政策,规模,市场要素多维度剖析市内免税店深度全解:政策,规模,市场要素多维度剖析2023 年 3 月 13 日吴劲草东吴商社首席证券分析师S石旖瑄东吴商社证券分析师S证券研究报告行业研究商业贸易增持(维持)2目录1.市内免税店政策扩充潜力大2.市内免税店市场规模测算3.市内店免税商竞争力拆解4.投资建议 8XbUbZeU9WeZfVcW7NcM9PmOpPnPoNiNnNnOfQpOsO6MnMqQxNrQyRMYtOoM3市内免税规模测算:基于潜在客流*渗透率*客单价的销售拆分框架,预期市内免税市场总规模短期/中期/长期分别可达64/632/1499亿元级别。对长期市内免税规模进行敏感性分析,长期来看市内免税市场合理预期区间为1010-1524亿元。市内免税商竞争一览表:推荐中国中免、王府井中国中免:免税龙头运营商,品牌品类齐全,渠道形态多样,具有成熟运营体系,多点布局市内免税店,有望建立先发优势享受政策红利。预测2022-2024年中国中免归母净利润分别为50.25/132.31/154.44亿元,对应PE估值为74/28/24倍,维持“买入”评级。王府井:标杆百货零售集团,零售业态多元化,管理经验丰富,万宁特色离岛免税项目投运形成实质性免税业务,坐拥北京顶级商圈流量有望进一步受益于市内免税政策红利。预测2022-2024年王府井归母净利润分别为1.79/9.78/14.42亿元,对应PE估值为159/29/20倍,维持“增持”评级。中国中免、王府井估值由东吴证券研究所基于最新股价及盈利预测得出,数据截至2023年3月12日。风险提示:市内免税政策落地不达预期的风险、行业竞争加剧的风险、居民消费意愿恢复不及预期的风险总体观点免税商潜在客流体量到店率转化率件均价连带率中免中服王府井数据来源:东吴证券研究所绘制 41.市内免税店政策扩充潜力大市内免税店政策扩充潜力大 51.1 市内免税政策为贯穿“十四五”的“促消费”举措现有政策引导方向下市内免税店有望提额扩容。当前市内免税店主要以服务出境境外人士及归国出境居民为主,出境本国居民市内免税消费场景暂未开放。2020年2月28日,关于促进消费扩容提质加快形成强大国内市场的实施意见提出,要健全免税业政策体系,将服务出境居民提升至服务境外人士同等位置,有利于实现出境本国居民市内免税消费新场景。同时,适时研究调整免税限额和免税品种类,均指引了未来市内免税店扩容的政策路径。其后,完善市内免税店政策的提法陆续在十四五规划中作为“促消费”举措持续体现,十四五时期内落地可期。数据来源:发改委、商务部等政府官网、东吴证券研究所表1:2019年以来中央对市内免税店政策提法日期日期政策文件政策文件有关市内免税店表述有关市内免税店表述2020.2.28关于促进消费扩容提质加快形成强大国内市场的实施意见进一步完善免税业政策。以建设中国特色免税体系为目标,加强顶层设计,破除行业发展障碍,提高行业发展质量和水平。科学确定免税业功能定位,坚持服务境外人士和我出境居民并重坚持服务境外人士和我出境居民并重,加强对免税业发展的统筹规划,健全免税业政策体系。完善市内免税店政策,建设一批中国特完善市内免税店政策,建设一批中国特色市内免税店。鼓励有条件的城市对市内免税店的建设经营提供土地、融资等支持,在机场口色市内免税店。鼓励有条件的城市对市内免税店的建设经营提供土地、融资等支持,在机场口岸免税店为市内免税店设立离境提货点。岸免税店为市内免税店设立离境提货点。扩大口岸免税业务,增设口岸免税店。根据居民收入水平提高和消费升级情况,适时研究调整免税限额和免税品种类。在免税店设立一定面积的国产商品销售区,引导相关企业开发专供免税渠道的优质特色国产商品,将免税店打造成为扶持国货精品、展示自主品牌、传播民族传统文化的重要平台。2021.3.12中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要完善市内免税店政策,规划建设一批中国特色市内免税店。2021.12.20“十四五”国内贸易发展规划完善市内 免税店政策,规划建设一批中国特色免税店。2022.1.13“十四五”现代流通体系建设规划完善市内免税店政策,规划建设一批中国特色市内免税店。2022.4.20关于进一步释放消费潜力促进消费持续恢复的意见完善市内免税店政策,规划建设一批中国特色市内免税店。61.2 市内免税店政策扩充方向当前市内免税店以服务出境境外人士及归国居民为主。其中,出境境外人士的市内免税消费不限额,设置机场离境提货点;归国居民免税政策规定选购额度(5000元)和时间限制(入境180天以内),市内免税店现场可提货。市内免税店政策扩充方向可能有:调整离境回国人员限额、种类,扩充出境居民离境前场景。数据来源:东吴证券研究所绘制图1:市内免税店当前服务情景及潜在扩充方向 71.3 当前市内店布局及规模数据来源:公司官网、东吴证券研究所受制于当前政策允许场景有限,市内店布局散而不强。市内免税店销售收入低,未形成规模效应。根据弗若斯特沙利文,2017年-2021年中国市内免税店销售规模增长幅度大,但总体基数小、规模有限。市内免税店规模由2017年的人民币1亿元增至2021年的6亿元,4年CAGR为57%。但高增速系由于低基数,实际规模占中国免税销售市场比仍较小。市内免税店当前市场规模仍小系受限于当前政策下消费场景及地域分布。从消费场景看,主要有外国人离境前消费和国人入境后小额消费两种。以中免、中侨、中服三家持牌免税运营商为例,中免共开设市内免税店5家,主要适用于外国人离境前免税品消费;中侨在哈尔滨开设免税店1家,主要适用于国人入境后小额消费;中服开设市内免税店12家,主要适用于国人入境后持护照免税消费。从门店分布看,目前只在北京、上海、青岛、厦门等十多个城市设有门店,门店数量有限。数据来源:弗若斯特沙利文、东吴证券研究所表2:中免、中服当前已开市内店汇总图2:2017-2021年市内免税店销售规模(亿元)免税商免税商已开门店所在城市已开门店所在城市适用消费者及场景适用消费者及场景中免青岛、厦门、大连、北京、上海外国人离境前消费中侨哈尔滨国人入境后小额消费中服上海、北京、青岛、郑州、大连、哈尔滨、重庆、南京、杭州、昆明、合肥、南昌国人入境后小额消费13366012345672017年2018年2019年2020年2021年 830(122&!%8%8%7%7%4%5%4%4%0 0Pp0 19年2020年2021年2022年世界其他地区其他亚洲地区日本中国大陆欧洲美国1.4 市内免税店政策有望伴随出境游复苏加速落地出境游爬坡可能带动消费外流现象复苏。2019年,中国居民全球个人奢侈品消费规模(包括奢侈品皮具、服饰鞋履、手表珠宝、香化等)为927亿欧元,占全球消费总量的33%,但其中仅有11%在中国大陆成交,三分之二的中国居民奢侈品消费外流。2020-2022年,疫情影响下,一方面,中国居民奢侈品消费出现整体缩水31%至2022年的635亿欧元;另一方面,大部分销售成交于大陆地区,2022年中国大陆地区奢侈品成交额占全球的17%,占中国居民奢侈品消费的95%。即在疫情影响及大陆奢侈品供给提升的双重作用下,消费回流成效凸显。但随着2023年国际航班逐步恢复、出境游人群爬坡,消费外流现象将一定程度复苏。市内免税店政策有望加强及丰富进口商品国内供给,作为离岛及口岸免税店的区位、场景补充,引导消费回流。市内免税店政策将进一步丰富进口商品国内供给,作为离岛、口岸免税店的区位、场景补充,有望截留一部分本国居民出境游时奢侈品消费,对消费外流复苏形成一定缓冲效应,并进一步引导消费回流。数据来源:贝恩咨询全球奢侈品市场研究、东吴证券研究所图3:2019-2022全球奢侈品消费结构(按地域)数据来源:贝恩咨询全球奢侈品市场研究、东吴证券研究所图4:2019-2022全球奢侈品消费结构(按国籍)22%13#3(%8%7%7%6%6%5%5%0 0Pp0 19年2020年2021年2022年其他其他亚洲人日本人中国人欧洲人美国人 92.市内免税店市场规模测算市内免税店市场规模测算 102.1 中国市内免税店规模测算要素潜在客群人群疫情前内地居民出入境人次3.5亿次,估算潜在客群人数为1.8亿体量。疫前内地居民出入境人次在出入境人员中占比持续提升位居首位,2019年内地居民出入境人次达3.5亿,形成了市内免税销售主要潜在客群。2017-2019我国出入境人员人次分别为6.0/6.7/6.7亿人次,其中内地居民占比分别为48%/51%/52%,2019年内地居民出入境人员总数达3.5亿人次,为市内免税销售主要潜在客群。随着出行管控放开和国际航线供给恢复,内地居民出入境和旅游消费意愿有望阶段性修复提升,估算潜在客群人数为1.8亿体量。数据来源:国家移民管理局、东吴证券研究所表3:2017-2019年我国出入境情况出入境情况(单位:亿人)201720182019出入境人员6.06.76.7其中:内地居民2.93.43.5港澳台居民2.52.42.2外国人0.60.91.0 11韩国免税店销售情况201720182019潜在客群数量(韩国居民出境人次:万人)769685939039实际客户数量(免税购物人次:万人)308829942843渗透率(免税购物人次/出境人次)4051%客单价(万韩元)12.413.214.2换算为人民币(元)650696749年化市场规模(亿韩元)38156 39597 40456换算为人民币(亿元)201208213海南离岛免税销售情况202020212022潜在客群数量(赴岛游国内居民人次:万人)221723771653实际客户数量(免税购物人次:万人)448671422渗透率(免税购物人次/赴岛游居民人次)20(&%客单价(元)613473738270年化市场规模(亿元)2754953492.2 中国市内免税店规模测算要素渗透率及客单价数据来源:韩国免税业协会、东吴证券研究所注:韩国出境公民免税购物限额为5000元(2022年3月取消),换算人民币使用汇率为1人民币=190韩元渗透率及客单价要素可参照疫情前韩国及近几年海南市场。韩国免税店渗透率维持30-40%高位,客单价逐年缓升。2017-2019年韩国免税购物渗透率分别为40%/35%/31%,客单价分别为650/696/749元,年化市场规模分别为201/208/213亿元。离岛免税政策红利推动渗透率、客单价快速提升。2020-2022年海南离岛免税渗透率分别为20%/28&%,客单价分别为6134/7373/8270元,年化市场规模分别为275/495/349亿元。数据来源:海口海关、海南省交通厅、东吴证券研究所表4:2017-2019年韩国居民免税购物情况表5:2020-2022年海南离岛免税购物情况 12国人出境市内免税短期:放开首年(假设2023年)中期:出入境及消费意向均恢复正常时(假设2025年)长期:成熟阶段年化(假设2030年)潜在客群人数(内地居民出境人次:亿人)0.91.82.3渗透率(免税购物人次/出境人次)5!%客单价(元)80014001800预期市场规模(亿元)35368860国人归国市内免税潜在客群人数(内地居民出境人次:亿人)0.91.82.3渗透率(免税购物人次/入境人次)7&%客单价(元)4808401080预期市场规模(亿元)29265639总计市场规模(亿元)6463214992.3 市内免税店整体市场规模测算数据来源:国家移民管理局、海口海关、海南省交通厅、韩国免税业协会、东吴证券研究所表6:测算短/中/长期国人市内免税店销售规模基于以下假设综合测算市内免税店短/中/长期规模预期分别在64/632/1499亿元人民币级别。潜在客群人数:随着出行放开,国际旅游出行阶段性修复,预期国人出入境人次短/中/长期分别为0.9/1.8/2.3亿人次,恢复至2019年同期出入境人次的50%/100%/130%。渗透率及客单价:市内免税作为旅行购物场景延申,未来政策完善叠加内地居民消费意愿及能力的恢复,渗透率及客单价将持续提升,此处拆分国人出境及国人归国两场景分别进行要素预测。预期国人出境市内免税渗透率短/中/长期分别为5%/15%/21%,客单价短/中/长期分别为800/1400/1800元(约束条件为渗透率不超过海南离岛免税,客单价受限额影响较离岛免税显著低)。考虑到场景后置但可消费时间范围更大,我们认为国人归国市内免税相比出境而言,会呈现高渗透率、低客单价的特征,预期渗透率短/中/长期分别为7%/18%/26%,客单价短/中/长期分别为480/840/1080元。132.4 市内免税店长期市场规模敏感性分析数据来源:国家移民管理局、海口海关、海南省交通厅、韩国免税业协会、东吴证券研究所注:表中所示渗透率和客单价为国人出境市内免税长期中渗透率和客单价假设,市场总规模为国人出境和归国市内免税规模合计。表7:长期中市内免税市场规模敏感性分析核心假设:国人出境市内免税渗透率15%-30%,步长为3%;客单价区间800-2000元,步长200。国人归国市内免税方面,渗透率比出境场景高5个百分点,客单价为出境场景的60%。我们认为国人出境市内免税渗透率在21-24%,客单价在1200-1600元是中性预期,因而合理预期区间为1010-1524亿元。80010001200140016001800200015I76217458699941118124218X5731878102411701317146321g38421010117913471515168424v295211431333152417141904270106312751488170019132125308117314081642187721112346渗透率(%)客单价(元)市场总规模(亿元)143.市内店免税商竞争力拆解市内店免税商竞争力拆解 153.1 旅游零售竞争力分析框架旅游零售企业销售额可拆分为潜在客流体量、到店率、转化率、件均价、连带率的乘积(对于居民单次出境购买市内免税品几乎没有复购概念在此不讨论复购率)。公式中每一个因子都值得企业反复测试、持续优化、不断迭代,以获得更好的规模和经济效益。我们将每一项对应到免税企业运营中的口岸免税、离岛免税、线上平台业务中去,再进行总结归纳,会发现所有这些因子能够归结为三个核心要素:流量、体量和运营。以此构成我们对旅游零售企业竞争力的分析框架。以下我们针对目前有望成为未来市内免税玩家的中免、中服、王府井的各项要素分别进行定性评估。资料来源:东吴证券研究所绘制图5:旅游零售企业竞争力分析框架 163.2 潜在客流体量中免、中服全国多地布点,王府井扎根北京为全国第二大出入境航空口岸所在地。从布局来看,中免与中服在国内一二线城市(中免:北京、上海、青岛、厦门、大连、哈尔滨;中服:上海、北京、青岛、郑州、大连、哈尔滨、重庆、南京、杭州、昆明、合肥、南昌)已发展诸多市内免税门店。中免通过收购中侨切入国人入境免税,但主要门店仍为外国人离境场景,中服门店则均为国人入境场景。王府井目前持牌扎根北京,北京首都机场在2019年时占到全国出入境客流吞吐量的17%,未来有望依托全国第二大航空出入境口岸客流发展免税项目。数据来源:中国民航局、各机场上市公司公告、东吴证券研究所表8:北上广三地及全国机场出入境旅客吞吐量2019年2020年2021年机场出入境旅客吞吐量(万人次)比重出入境旅客吞吐量(万人次)比重出入境旅客吞吐量(万人次)比重首都机场2,81517)8155%上海机场3,85123H625740%广州白云机场1,87111%813i17%北上广总计8,537514253%461%全国16,72010070100A41003.3 到店率数据来源:百度图片、东吴证券研究所王府井背靠首旅集团有望揽下北京重要商圈点位,中免、中服市内免税店当前布点均为热门商圈。王府井作为首旅集团旗下商业板块核心平台,在北京及多地核心商圈均有商业布局,首旅集团旗下王府井大街与环球影城等都是游客的旅游热门目的地,有望在北京顶流商圈开出市内免税店项目,以低成本拉动游客到店率。中免与中服市内免税店项目布局以市内热门商圈为主,依托自身市场营销及会员体系吸引客户到店。数据来源:百度图片、东吴证券研究所图6:中免上海市内免税店图7:王府井大街 183.4 转化率数据来源:百度图片、东吴证券研究所门店转化率需综合考虑免税店供给商品的品牌、商品矩阵、价格、购物体验。中免体量、运营双强,中服市内免税店运营经验丰富,王府井有望实现有税、免税联动。中免占据绝对优势的采购体量带来了品牌的丰富和价格的优势,同时庞大会员体系及完善的市场、运营有望实现更高的转化率。中服多年的国人归国市内免税运营经验是政策红利初期的主要优势。王府井目前有税零售经验丰富,有望实现有税 免税互相引流,提升转化率。数据来源:百度图片、东吴证券研究所图8:中免三亚海棠湾图9:中服北京市内免税店 193.5 件均价数据来源:中免小程序和官网、东吴证券研究所单件均价主要考虑免税店供给商品结构。中免、王府井均有全品类运营经验,中服强香化弱精品。中免横向对比所有免税商来看,整体品类供给更齐全,各品类的品牌矩阵相对更为高端,更高的精品占比有望带动更高的件均价。王府井在现有有税零售框架下,已经建立起了与奢侈品品牌的初步联系,已对精品自营百货有丰富经营,有望将有税业务供应链能力拓展至免税业务。中服受限于当前市内免税5000限额,当前的运营重点更偏向于香化产品,相比较于中免和王府井,整体商品结构有望进一步完善。数据来源:王府井小程序和官网、东吴证券研究所图10:中免海棠湾品牌矩阵图11:王府井东安市场(自营百货)品牌矩阵 203.6 连带率数据来源:中免小程序和官网、东吴证券研究所连带率的决定因素主要为品牌及SKU丰富度,采购体量绝对领先的中免相对优势较大。据弗若斯特沙利文统计,中免2021年营收413亿人民币,在中国免税市场份额中占比86.0%,其综合采购价应已经具绝对优势,品牌SKU丰富度也已经领跑于其他免税商,连带率有望显著领先。王府井有望凭借完善的品类分布及品牌矩阵实现相对高的连带率。数据来源:王府井小程序和官网、东吴证券研究所图12:中免海口国际免税城品牌矩阵图13:北京市百货大楼品牌矩阵 213.7 市内店免税商竞争力一览表:中免、中服、王府井综合考虑三家未来市内免税玩家:中免优势仍大,王府井雄踞北京,中服运营经验深厚。综合考虑潜在客流量、到店率、转化率、件均价、连带率这5个核心的运营要素,我们认为:中免在各个要素上都有显著优势,在未来市内免税市场综合优势仍然较大。王府井整体依托自身有税零售的丰富经验和资源,及首旅集团在北京本土文旅项目布局,有望在北京的市内免税市场成为最重要玩家。中服在市内免税店项目上深耕多年,对于国人入境客群也更为熟悉,市内免税运营经验丰富。数据来源:东吴证券研究所绘制表9:中免、王府井、中服三家免税商各要素比较优势一览免税商潜在客流体量到店率转化率件均价连带率中免中服王府井 224.投资建议投资建议 234.1 投资建议推荐中国中免、王府井。政策引导市内免税有望提额扩容,加强品类完善和场景打造,引导消费回流;出行消费快速复苏将助力市内免税持续放量,中长期市场规模增长潜力大。中国中免是全球最大体量旅游零售运营商,深耕免税领域多年,具有成熟运营体系,品牌品类齐全,渠道形态多样,免税龙头地位稳固;多点布局市内免税店,有望建立市内免税先发优势。我们预测2022-2024年中国中免归母净利润分别为50.25/132.31/154.44亿元,对应PE估值为74/28/24倍,维持“买入”评级。王府井作为全国连锁老牌标杆百货零售集团,具有丰富零售业态与管理经验,万宁特色离岛免税项目投运形成实质性免税业务,坐拥北京顶级商圈流量有望进一步受益于市内免税政策红利。我们预测2022-2024年王府井归母净利润分别为1.79/9.78/14.42亿元,对应PE估值为159/29/20倍,维持“增持”评级。风险提示:市内免税政策落地不达预期的风险、行业竞争加剧的风险、居民消费意愿恢复不及预期的风险数据来源:Wind、东吴证券研究所注:中国中免、王府井估值由东吴证券研究所基于最新股价及盈利预测得出,数据截至2023年3月12日。表10:中国中免、王府井盈利预测股票代码/简称总市值(亿元)归母净利润(亿元)P/E投资评级2021A2022E2023E2024E2021A2022E2023E2024E601888.SH中国中免374496.5450.25132.31154.4439742824买入600859.SH王府井28413.401.799.7814.42211592920增持 免责声明免责声明东吴证券股份有限公司经中国证券监督管理委员会批准,已具备证券投资咨询业务资格。本研究报告仅供东吴证券股份有限公司(以下简称“本公司”)的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。在任何情况下,本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议,本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的内容所导致的损失负任何责任。在法律许可的情况下,东吴证券及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券并进行交易,还可能为这些公司提供投资银行服务或其他服务。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本报告是基于本公司分析师认为可靠且已公开的信息,本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性和完整性,也不保证文中观点或陈述不会发生任何变更,在不同时期,本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本报告的版权归本公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发、转载,需征得东吴证券研究所同意,并注明出处为东吴证券研究所,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。东吴证券投资评级标准:公司投资评级:买入:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对大盘在15%以上;增持:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对大盘介于5%与15%之间;中性:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对大盘介于-5%与5%之间;减持:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对大盘介于-15%与-5%之间;卖出:预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对大盘在-15%以下。行业投资评级:增持:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对强于大盘5%以上;中性:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对大盘-5%与5%;减持:预期未来6个月内,行业指数相对弱于大盘5%以上。东吴证券研究所苏州工业园区星阳街5号邮政编码:215021传真:(0512)62938527公司网址:http:/25东吴证券 财富家园
中国投资者海外投资合规经营和权益保护实用指南2022 2023/中国投资者海外投资合规经营和权益保护实用指南序一科技革命和产业变革的发展,助推经济全球化进程深入推进,各国相互依存程度不断加深。尽管近几年逆全球化思潮上升,单边主义和贸易保护主义有所抬头,但大势之所趋,非人力所能移,全球化发展终将不断累积势能,平抑逆流,迎来新的高潮。中国积极倡导人类命运共同体理念,统筹“两个大局”下的国内国际双循环,实行积极主动的开放政策,越来越多的中国企业在全球范围内加快资源布局。有效运用法律手段防范风险、加强海外权益保护,是中国企业国际化发展面临的重要课题。为帮助中国企业积极应对海外投资风险、维护合法权益,金杜律师事务所和境外中资企业商(协)会联席会议(以下简称联席会议)合作,共同完成了这本中国投资者海外投资合规经营和权益保护实用指南。本书集聚金杜多年跨境法律服务经验,就中国企业及个人投资者面临的海外投资现状和法律风险,以及相关的国际法律制度、国别法律制度与救济等做了全面介绍,内容涵盖国家安全、税务、出口管制、知识产权保护、海关、外汇、反垄断、反商业贿赂、反洗钱、国家管制的应对、跨境争议解决等各方面法律问题。在此,感谢所有参与撰写的金杜律师付出的辛苦和努力,他们以专业和匠心精神提升了本书的厚度。同时,特别感谢联席会议为本书的完成所提供的支持。作为境外中资企业商(协)会自发形成、自愿参与、非盈利性、非政府性的联合组织,联席会议的权威资料和卓有成效的研究成果赋予本书坚实的事实基础。期待本书的发布,能对中国企业更好地了解和防范相关法律风险、促进海外合规经营、实现更加稳健安全的全球发展有所帮助。2022 年 7 月 7 日王俊峰金杜律师事务所全球主席序二近年来,中国投资者“走出去”步伐不断加快,对外投资合作规模不断扩大,领域不断扩展,层次不断提升。党的二十大报告中指出,“我国已成为一百四十多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴,货物贸易总额居世界第一,吸引外资和对外投资居世界前列,形成更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次对外开放格局。”中国投资者在对外开放格局构建中发挥着重要的作用。当前,世界之变、时代之变、历史之变正以前所未有的方式展开,中国企业开展对外投资合作,面临着世纪疫情、地缘政治、发展鸿沟、气候变化、数字治理等方面的现实挑战,在驻在国开展生产经营也面临安全、合规等各类风险,亟待进一步建立健全科学管理制度,加强境外业务合规培训,增强风险管理的意识与能力。在“走出去”形势日益复杂多变的背景下,为更好服务中国投资者了解和防范海外投资风险,提升合规经营意识与能力,实现对外投资合作高质量发展,境外中资企业商(协)会联席会议与金杜律师事务所联手编制了中国投资者海外投资合规经营和权益保护实用指南。本指南从中国投资者在海外投资现状、面临的主要法律问题及风险、海外投资风险应对法律实践等角度阐明中国投资者如何做好海外投资风险防范并采取应对措施,同时佐以各类司法实践案例,内容丰富、信息准确、指导性强,可作为中国投资者“走出去”的案头参考。例如,仅就境外投资国家安全审查一项问题,本书梳理了美国、加拿大、欧盟、德国、意大利、英国、澳大利亚、印度等八个国家法律法规最新动态,就单边制裁、出口管制、海外用工、知识产权保护、跨境电子商务、跨境争议解决等企业关注的重点难点堵点问题给予详细说明,兼顾法律原理与普法实践,深入浅出、语言生动、可读性强。作为境外中资企业商(协)会联席会议轮值主席单位俄罗斯中国总商会会长,我谨代表境外商会联席会议由衷感谢金杜律师事务所的辛勤付出和专业贡献。我们希望也相信,这本实用指南的成功发布,一定会为中国企业开展全球化经营、实现国际化发展、参与高质量共建“一带一路”提供有益的智力支持。联席会议将继续发挥信息交流平台、协调服务平台和联动互助平台作用,携手各方一道,为广大境外商会和中国投资者提供更多务实服务,助力中资企业海外投资经营行稳致远。2022 年 10 月 周立群境外中资企业商(协)会联席会议轮值主席单位俄罗斯中国总商会会长目录序一序二第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状一、中国对外投资合作发展概览 012二、中国对外投资的风险与挑战概览 023第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险 一、国家安全审查 028二、海外用工风险 036三、单边制裁 045四、出口管制 056五、出口管制“黑名单”制度 069六、知识产权侵权 074七、间谍、洗钱及其他刑事指控 090八、政府机构的调查 099九、多边开发银行调查与制裁 104十、自愿退市与强制退市 111十一、引渡 116第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践一、国际投资并购及贸易 122二、国际基础设施、工程建设合同 134三、国家安全审查 143四、化解多边开发银行调查及制裁风险 148五、投资海外应关注的相关税务问题 154六、海关、外汇相关法律问题 176七、美国及欧盟数据保护法律 193八、海外用工风险的应对 210九、自愿退市与强制退市后私有化路径 214十、海外上市公司私有化的融资安排 230十一、完善企业的海外合规管理体系 238十二、知识产权防侵权检索与分析及纠纷应对 249十三、美国无效专利的程序 259十四、知识产权海关保护 263十五、国际投资保护协定/投资仲裁 268十六、国际基础设施、工程建设合同纠纷解决 288十七、国际民商事仲裁与诉讼 301十八、美国政府的调查 322十九、美国337、反倾销、反补贴调查 331二十、中国反对外国单边制裁及长臂管辖的立法 359第四部分 后记 中国投资者在海外投资现状第一部分012第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状一、中国对外投资合作发展概览2020 年,世界经济在世纪疫情叠加百年变局中遭受重创,出现 3.1%的负增长,全球商品贸易萎缩 5.3%,跨国直接投资下降近四成。面对各种不确定、不稳定因素,中国积极参与全球经济治理,坚持经济全球化和维护多边贸易体制,持续推进高质量共建“一带一路”,对外投资合作克服重重困难,实现逆势增长,对外投资合作的规模和质量水平再上新台阶,对促进互利共赢和共同发展作出积极贡献。1.对外投资流量逆势增长世界投资报告 2021统计显示,2020 年全球对外直接投资流量 7398.7 亿美元,同比大幅萎缩 39.4%。2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报显示,2020 年中国对外直接投资流量逆势上扬达到 1537.1 亿美元,同比增长 12.3%,占当年全球对外直接投资流量的份额大幅提升,达到 20.2%,同比提高 9.8 个百分点,接近翻番。2020 年全球对外直接投资流量最高的 5 个国家和地区分别是中国、卢森堡、日本、中国香港和美国,分别为 1537.1 亿美元、1270.9 亿美元、1157 亿美元、1022.2 亿美元和 928.1 亿美元,其中日本对外直接投资流量同比下降 49%,美国小幅萎缩 0.8%。“十三五”时期,中国对外直接投资累计 7881 亿美元,比“十二五”时期增长了 46.2%,对外直接投资迈上新台阶。013第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状图 1-1:中国对外直接投资流量 2010 2020 年变化比较05002010年(亿美元)(%)688.121.78.517.622.814.218.334.7746.58781078.41231.21456.71582.91430.41369.11537.12011年 2012年2013年 2014年2015年2016年 2017年2018年2019年2020年流量同比1000150020002500-20-30-100102030401961.5-19.3-9.6-4.312.3数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报表 1-1:2010 2020 年中国对外直接投资流量全球占比和位次年份流量(亿美元)全球占比(%)全球位次2010 年688.14.952011 年746.54.862012 年8786.432013 年1078.47.832014 年1231.29.032015 年1456.78.522016 年1961.512.722017 年1582.99.93014第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状年份流量(亿美元)全球占比(%)全球位次2018 年1430.414.522019 年1369.110.422020 年1537.120.21数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报;联合国贸发会议 2016 2021 年世界投资报告2.对外投资存量全球占比持续提升2020 年,中国对外直接投资存量稳居全球前三,占全球比重进一步扩大。截至 2020 年末,全球对外直接投资存量 39.2 万亿美元,投资存量前三强依然为美国、荷兰和中国,分别为 81285 亿美元、37976 亿美元和 25807 亿美元,占全球比重分别为 20.7%,9.7%和 6.6%,中国对外直接投资存量在全球占比较上年提高 0.2个百分点。表 1-2:2016 2020 年中国对外直接投资存量的全球占比年份全球对外直接投资存量(万亿美元)中国对外直接投资存量(亿美元)中国占全球比重(%)2016 年26.213573.95.22017 年30.818090.45.92018 年31.019822.76.42019 年34.621988.86.42020 年39.225806.66.6数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报;联合国贸发组织世界投资报告 2021015第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状3.流向二、三产业的对外投资较快增长2020 年,中国对外直接投资逆势增长,流向制造业、服务业的对外直接投资实现较快增长。2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报显示,当年中国流向制造业的对外直接投资 258.4 亿美元,同比增长 27.7%,增速较上年大幅提高 21.6个百分点;流向服务业的对外直接投资 1267.9 亿美元,同比增长 11%,增速较上年快速提高 16.9 个百分点。2020 年制造业和服务业领域的对外直接投资流量分别占当年整体对外直接投资流量的 16.8%和 82.5%,制造业占比增加 2 个百分点,服务业与上年基本持平。2020 年流向第一产业(农/林/牧、渔)10.8 亿美元,大幅减少 55.7%,整体占比 0.7%,较上年减少 1.1 个百分点。图 1-2:2020 中国对外直接投资三大产业分布第二产业258.4亿美元16.8%第一产业10.8亿美元0.7%第三产业1267.9亿美元82.5%同比上升11%同比上升27.7%同比下降55.7%数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局 2020年度中国对外直接投资统计公报图1-2:2020中国对外直接投资三大产业分布数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报注:此处第一产业为农林牧渔数据,第二产业为制造业数据,第三产业数据为2020 年中国对外直接投资总额扣除第一、第二产业对外直接投资额,包括 2020 年中国对外直接投资涉及的租赁和商务服务业、金融业、批发和零售业、信息传输/软件和信息技术服务业、交通运输/仓储和邮政业、电力/热力/燃气及水的生产和供应业、房地产业、住宿和餐饮业、文化/体育和娱乐业、科学研究和技术服务业、016第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状卫生和社会工作、教育、水利/环境和公共设施管理业、居民服务/修理和其他服务业、建筑业等行业。4.公有和非公有经济对外投资并驾齐驱2020 年,非公经济和公有经济两类企业主体的对外投资规模和发展速度旗鼓相当,非公经济控股主体对外直接投资实现较快增长,扭转上年大幅下滑态势,增速和所占比重与公有经济控股主体大体同步。2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报显示,2020 年中国对外非金融类直接投资合计 1340.5 亿美元,其中非公经济控股的境内投资者对外投资 671.6 亿美元,同比增长 14.1%,增速较上年提高36.3 个百分点,占比 50.1%;公有经济控股的境内投资者对外直接投资 668.9 亿美元,同比增长 15.1%,占比 49.9%,较上年微弱增长 0.2 个百分点,其中,中央企业和单位对外非金融类直接投资 492 亿美元,同比大幅增长 80.8%,增速较上年提高 62.8 个百分点。图 1-3:2020 年不同所有制企业对外非金融类直接投资比较同比上升14.1%同比上升15.1%数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局 2020年度中国对外直接投资统计公报图1-3:2020年不同所有制企业对外非金融类直接投资比较公有经济控股668.9亿美元非公有经济控股671.6亿美元49.9P.1%数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报5.收益再投资规模和占比均创历史最高2020 年,超过七成的中国境外企业实现盈利或持平,良好的经营状况产生更017第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状大规模的新增留存收益,收益再投资规模和整体占比均创历史最高。2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报显示,2020 年中国收益再投资 716.4 亿美元,同比增长 18.2%,占对外投资流量总额的 46.6%,较上年提高 2.3 个百分点;当年新增股权投资增长三成,达到 630.3 亿美元,占流量总额的 41%,较上年提高 5.7 个百分点;债务工具投资 190.4 亿美元,同比下降 31.9%,占比 12.4%,较上年减少 8个百分点。截至 2020 年末,中国共在 189 个国家(地区)设立 4.5 万家对外直接投资企业,年末境外企业资产总额 7.9 万亿美元,直接投资存量 25806.6 亿美元中股权投资 14777.3 亿美元,占比近六成,收益再投资 7860.4 亿美元,占比三成,债务工具投资 3168.9 亿美元,占比 12.3%。表 1-3:2020 年中国对外直接投资流量构成指标金额(亿美元)同比(%)比重(%)比重较上年新增股权630.330.441提高 5.7 个百分点收益再投资716.418.246.6提高 2.3 个百分点债务工具投资190.4-31.912.4减少 8 个百分点数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报6.对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)投资再创新高2020 年,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)投资规模创 2013 年以来最高值和最高占比。当年对沿线国家(地区)直接投资 225.4 亿美元,较上年扩大38.5 亿美元,同比增长 20.6%,占同期中国对全球直接投资流量的 14.7%,较上年提高 1 个百分点。制造业依然是中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)投资规模最大的行业,流向沿线国家(地区)制造业的直接投资 76.8 亿美元,较上年增加 8.9 亿美元,同比提高 13.1%,占全部投资的比重为 34.1%,较上年减少 2.2个百分点。018第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状中国当年对“一带一路”沿线直接投资流量最大的 10 个国家是新加坡、印尼、泰国、越南、阿联酋、老挝、马来西亚、柬埔寨、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯,合计投资187.4 亿美元,较上年提高 27.8 亿美元,占当年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)投资总额的 83.1%,较上年减少 2.3 个百分点。截至 2020 年末,中国在“一带一路”沿线的 63 个国家(地区)设立超过 1.1万家境外企业,2013 2020 年,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)累计直接投资 1398.5 亿美元,“十三五”期间累计直接投资 946.3 亿美元。图 1-4:2016 2020 年中国在“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)直接投资占比比较数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局20162020年度 中国对外直接投资统计公报对“一带一路”直接投资流量占当年对外直接投资流量比重0100(亿美元)(%)2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年20030040050030691215153.49.512.512.513.714.7201.7178.9186.9225.4数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局中国对外直接投资统计公报表 1-4:2020 年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)直接投资流量前 10 位国家(地区)2020 年流量(亿美元)新加坡59.2印度尼西亚22.0019第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状国家(地区)2020 年流量(亿美元)泰国18.8越南18.8阿拉伯联合酋长国15.5老挝14.5马来西亚13.7柬埔寨9.6巴基斯坦9.5俄罗斯联邦5.7合计187.4数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报7.对美洲和非洲投资实现大幅增长2020 年,中国对美洲和非洲直接投资扭转上年萎缩态势,实现大幅增长。拉丁美洲、非洲和北美洲是当年中国对外直接投资实现最快增长的三个地区,其中拉丁美洲取代欧洲成为当年中国对外直接投资第二大目的地。2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报显示,2020 年,中国对拉丁美洲直接投资 166.6 亿美元,同比增长 160.7%,增速较上年提高 217 个百分点,对非洲直接投资 42.3 亿美元,同比增长 56.1%,增速提高 106 个百分点,对北美洲直接投资 63.4 亿美元,同比增长 45.1%,增速提高 95 个百分点。当年中国对美国直接投资 60.2 亿美元,同比增长 58.1%,占对外直接投资流量的 3.9%,对拉丁美洲、非洲、北美洲的直接投资分别占对外直接投资流量的 10.8%、2.8%和 4.1%。020第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状亚洲依然是 2020 年中国对外直接投资最主要的目的地。当年流向亚洲的直接投资 1123.4 亿美元,同比增长 1.4%,占当年对外直接投资流量的 73.1%,较上年减少 7.8 个百分点,其中对东盟 10 国的投资实现较快增长,当年直接投资 160.6亿美元,同比增长 23.3%,超过中国当年对外直接投资增速 11 个百分点,占当年对外直接投资流量的 10.4%。2020 年中国对欧洲直接投资 126.9 亿美元,同比增长 20.6%,占当年对外直接投资流量的 8.3%,较上年扩大 0.6 个百分点,其中对欧盟直接投资 101 亿美元,同比增长 5.2%,占当年对外直接投资流量的 6.6%。2020 年中国对大洋洲的投资继续呈现下滑,当年直接投资 14.5 亿美元,同比下降30.3%,占当年对外直接投资流量总额的 0.9%,比重较上年减少 0.6 个百分点,大洋洲是当年中国对外直接投资唯一呈现负增长的地区。图 1-5:2020 年中国对外直接投资流量全球地区分布数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报亚洲欧洲北美洲拉丁美洲非洲大洋洲73.1%8.3%4.1.8%2.8%0.9%1.4V.1 .6E.10.70.31第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状表 1-5:2020 年中国对外直接投资流量全球地区分布地区投资流量(亿美元)同比(%)比重(%)亚洲1123.41.473.1拉丁美洲166.6160.710.8欧洲126.920.68.3北美洲63.445.14.1非洲42.356.12.8大洋洲14.5-30.30.9合计1537.112.3100.0数据来源:中国商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局2020 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报8.对外承包工程业务整体平稳发展2020 年,在国际承包工程发包额大幅减少的形势下,中国对外承包工程业务整体平稳发展。商务部数据显示,2020 年中国新签大额对外承包工程项目合同增多,新签合同额过 1 亿美元大项目 514 个,较上年增加 8 个,数量创历史新高。对外承包工程项目行业分布广泛,在交通运输建设、一般建筑、电力工程、石油化工等 4 个领域继续保持优势,上述 4 个行业的新签项目合同额占当年合同总额的 77.2%,完成营业额占当年完成营业总额的 74.4%。2020 年中国对外承包工程超过八成业务集中在亚洲和非洲。完成营业额排名前十的国家和地区是阿联酋、中国香港、巴基斯坦、印尼、马来西亚、沙特、孟加拉国、阿尔及利亚、俄罗斯和澳大利亚。2020 年中国与全球 184 个国家和地区新签了 9933 份对外承包工程项目合同,新签合同额和完成营业额分别为 2555.4 亿美022第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状元和 1559.4 亿美元,同比分别下降 1.8%和 9.8%。“十三五”期间,中国合计新签对外承包工程项目合同额 12668.8 亿美元,2016 2020 年分别为 2440.1 亿美元、2652.8 亿美元、2418 亿美元、2602.5亿美元和 2555.4 亿美元;对外承包工程业务完成营业额合计 8258.9 亿美元,2016 2020 年分别为 1594.2 亿美元、1685.9 亿美元、1690.4 亿美元、1729 亿美元和 1559.4 亿美元。“十三五”期间,中国合计新签对外承包工程合同额上亿美元项目 2405 个,2016 2020 年分别为 482 个、436 个、467 个、506 个和514 个;2016 2020 年入选美国工程新闻纪录(ENR)“全球最大 250 家国际承包商”的中国企业数量分别为 65 家、65 家、69 家、75 家和 74 家,占比分别为 26%、26%、27.6%、30%和 29.6%。表 1-6:2020 年中国对外承包工程主要行业分布行业新签合同额占比(%)完成营业额占比(%)交通运输建设24.825.8一般建筑2519.1电力工程建设19.919.6石油化工领域7.59.9合计77.274.4数据来源:中国对外承包工程、劳务合作业务统计年报9.对外劳务合作下降近四成新冠肺炎疫情下各国对跨境人员流动的限制给中国对外劳务合作开展形成一定的挑战,2020 年中国外派劳务人员下降近四成。商务部数据显示,2020 年,中国对外劳务合作派出各类劳务人员 30.1 万人,同比下降 38.2%,较上年同期减少 18.6 万人,其中承包工程项下派出 13.9 万人,同比下降 34.1%,较上年减023第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状少 7.2 万人,劳务合作项下派出 16.2 万人,同比下降 41.3%,较上年减少 11.4万人。2020 年末在外各类劳务人员 62.3 万人,同比下降 37.2%,较上年减少36.9 万人。“十三五”期间,我国对外劳务合作派出各类劳务人员合计 229.6 万人,2016 2020 年分别为 49.4 万人、52.2 万人、49.2 万人、48.7 万人和 30.1 万人;承包工程项下合计派出 102.9 万人,2016 2020 年分别为 23 万人、22.2 万人、22.7 万人、21.1 万人和 13.9 万人;劳务合作项下合计派出 126.7 万人,2016 2020 年分别为 26.4 万人、30 万人、26.5 万人、27.6 万人和 16.2 万人。表 1-7:“十三五”各年度我国对外劳务合作派出劳务人员比较年度承包工程项下派出人员(万人)劳务合作项下派出人员(万人)对外劳务合作派出各类劳务人员(万人)2016 年2326.449.42017 年22.23052.22018 年22.726.549.22019 年21.127.648.72020 年13.916.230.1合计102.9126.7229.6数据来源:中国对外承包工程、劳务合作业务统计年报二、中国对外投资的风险与挑战概览当今世界,百年未有之大变局叠加全球疫情,进入动荡变革期。外部环境更趋复杂、严峻和不确定,中国投资者海外投资经营面临着复杂严峻的国内外形势和诸多风险挑战。024第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状1.全球跨境投资增长动力不足当前世界经济总体保持复苏态势,但动能有所减弱,不稳定、不确定因素增多,实现常态化增长仍需时日。2020 年,全球跨境投资降至 2005 年以来的最低点。尽管 2021 年全球外国直接投资强劲反弹,比 2020 年增长 77%,从 9290 亿美元增至 1.65 万亿美元,超过新冠疫情前水平,但发展中国家卫生危机的持续时间和疫苗接种速度,实施基础设施投资等激励措施的成效仍是重要的不确定性因素。贸发会议预测,2022年全球FDI增长前景仍然乐观,但不太可能继续保持2021年的增速。劳动力和供应链瓶颈、能源价格和通胀压力也将影响全球跨境投资实际增长。2022年,世界百年未有之大变局正加速演变,新一轮科技革命和产业变革带来的激烈竞争前所未有,气候变化、疫情防控等全球性问题对人类社会带来的影响前所未有,跨境投资的国际环境日趋复杂。虽然我国对外直接投资流量规模在 2020 年位列世界第一位,但面对全球跨境投资恢复性增长动力不足的局面,未来我国对外直接投资流量规模恐面临下行压力。2.全球投资保护主义抬头2020 年,全球限制或监管性投资政策措施占投资政策措施总数的比例达到41%,创历史新高。限制或监管性措施在发达国家更为普遍,在 43 项出台措施中占 35 项。2021 年 9 月,美欧贸易和技术委员会(TTC)正式成立,并在联合声明中强调投资审查。美国商务部、财政部通过“实体清单”对外国企业进行制裁。欧盟于 2021 年 11 月发布首份外资安全审查报告,指出自欧盟新的外资审查法案生效一年来,欧委会已审查 400 项外国投资。英国国家安全与投资法于 2022年 1 月生效。特定国家滥用国家力量、泛化国家安全打压外国企业的错误做法有所增加,限制范围从原先的国防工业扩展到战略性行业、关键性基础设施及国内核心技术。部分国家甚至出台针对性政策,压缩中资企业海外的发展空间,例如,美国政府以“应对中国军工企业威胁”为由,签署行政命令,将 59 家中国企业列入投资“黑名单”;英国政府禁止中企参与该国核电项目;印度税务部门对中资企业开展大规模调查等。2022 年以来,美国发起多起针对中国企业的制裁,中国企业海外利益面临风险。025第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状3.中国企业参与全球供应链难度加大西方跨国公司的垄断优势已从最初资本、技术等所有权优势,向无工厂制造商主导的价值链优势演进。2021 年全球价值链发展报告指出,无工厂制造商主导的全球价值链,以及利用国际直接投资和全球价值链向全球客户出口无形资产服务的新商业模式,正超越传统生产方式,对国际贸易、工业化和经济发展模式带来革命性变化。中国企业联合会、中国企业家协会评选的 2021 年中国 100 家最大跨国公司的平均跨国指数仅为 15.07%。中国跨国公司亟需补齐专利技术、品牌、全球批发和零售网络等短板。产业链和供应链面临的人为割裂风险有所增加,国际投资中围绕关键原材料和高新技术的竞争可能进一步加剧。特定国家以维护产业链安全、供应链稳定、提升经济发展韧性和危机应对能力为名,构建一系列排他性的小集团,甚至试图以意识形态划线,打造供应链“小圈子”,对华科技“脱钩”力度加大。4.中国企业海外投资利益保护更加艰难部分国家面临企业倒闭、失业率上升、粮食短缺等问题,放大了既有矛盾,社会动荡和冲突事件明显增多,“走出去”企业的生产经营及员工的人身和财产安全面临更大威胁。美欧在重拾“价值观外交”基础上,加大对发展中国家的基础设施投资力度,或对“一带一路”建设造成更多干扰。美国推动七国集团(G7)推出的“重建更美好世界”倡议(B3W)于 2022 年初推出首批投资项目,并计划启动“印太经济框架”;欧盟将在“全球门户战略”下加大对基建领域的投资。“一带一路”沿线的部分发展中国家受世界经济衰退、国际金融机构避险等因素影响,债务违约风险加大。纵观政治、经济、安全等方面的风险,跨国投资经营的不确定性大幅上升,中国企业维护海外利益难度加大。5.中国企业合规经营面临更高要求美日欧等经济体在世贸组织改革和多双边经贸谈判中倾向于片面强调所谓“高标准”规则,提高中资企业投资经营门槛。在反补贴方面,欧美在世贸组织改革中推动竞争中立和反补贴,弱化中国国有企业对外投资优势。在国际税收方面,经合026第一部分 中国投资者在海外投资现状组织(OECD)发表关于应对经济数字化税收挑战“双支柱”方案的声明部分规则或影响双向投资、挑战数据安全、增大税改难度。在数据跨境流动方面,各国出台不同管理标准的数据流动法律和规则体系,形成若干数据流动圈。在绿色发展方面,越来越多的经济体推出碳达峰、碳中和时间表和新要求,欧盟率先提出碳边境调节机制。在可持续发展方面,欧美等发达经济体在疫情后更加强调欢迎符合可持续发展标准的投资。在社会责任方面,不少国家在技术质量、社会责任等方面提出更高要求。中国企业的合规能力面临新挑战,合规风险和成本不断上升。中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险第二部分028第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险一、国家安全审查2021 年 3 月 26 日,韩国某半导体公司公告同意被中国某私募股权投资公司以每股 29 美元的价格收购,总价约 14 亿美元。2021 年 5 月底,美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)介入该交易,要求当事各方向 CFIUS 提交审查。2021 年 12 月 14 日,因无法获得 CFIUS 的批准,交易双方联合声明终止交易。根据合并协议,该中国私募股权投资公司需支付 7,020 万美元的终止费。2017 年,中国某企业下属的一家法国公司宣布拟收购一家生产特殊机床的德国公司,其研发的高强度部件主要运用于汽车生产、航天航空乃至核工业领域。中国企业向德国经济能源部申报了该交易。历经 2017 年年中至 2018 年 7 月的国家安全审查程序,基于德国经济能源部将禁止该交易的传闻,中国企业撤回了其收购申请,但德国政府随后仍以交易会危及德国的公共秩序与安全否决了该收购,该否决为德国首次否决外商对德投资。2020 年 12 月 21 日,中国某投资公司与意大利某半导体设备公司的股东达成股权收购协议,由中国公司收购意大利公司的 70%股权。意大利公司生产碳化硅外延炉等半导体设备,其碳化硅外延炉设备在全球市场占有率保持前三。2021 年3 月 31 日,时任意大利总理利用“黄金权力”对这笔交易进行了否决,其认为半导体是具有战略重要性的产业。自 2012 年以来,该“黄金权力”共被使用 3 次,2 次用于中资企业交易。2021 年 1 月,澳大利亚国库部长弗莱登伯格以国家安全为由否决了中国某建筑企业对澳某建筑承包巨头 88%股份的拟议收购,该笔交易价值约3 亿澳元,该等股份由南非某公司持有。中国企业的竞标在正式否决前已撤回。以上案例凸显了近年来国际政治经济形势的变化,欧美等发达国家对中国投资的国家安全审查愈加严格,并给中国买家带来了较大损失。美国是最早建立国家安全审查的国家之一,其国家安全审查制度始于 1988 年的埃克森-佛洛里奥修正案,并在 2018 年通过了外国投资风险审查现代化法029第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险案(FIRRMA),对国家安全审查制度进行了重大修改。在过去三年左右的时间里,欧洲很多国家都推出了自己的国家安全审查制度,很多国家的国家安全审查制度都效仿美国的制度,对中国企业的海外投资施加了诸多限制。中国企业走出去投资之前,需要首先了解目标公司所在国家的国家安全审查制度,并予以谨慎的评估。1.美国美国国家安全审查由美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)负责,其是一个由美国财政部牵头、多个联邦政府部门共同组成的联席办公机构,审查范围包括可能影响美国国家安全的外商投资和并购交易,即所谓的“受管辖的交易”(covered trans-action)。受 CFIUS 管辖的交易主要可以分为三类,即:控制权交易、特定的非控制性投资交易和特定的房地产交易。具体而言:(1)控制权交易是指外国人士取得对美国业务的控制的交易。需要注意,CFIUS对于“控制”的定义比我们通常理解的概念宽泛,是指拥有决定或指导重要事项的直接或间接的权力。除了掌握目标企业的多数股权或投票权,通过合同安排、一致行动安排、董事任命等其他方式取得对目标企业的重要事项的决定权也同样会被视为“控制”了该目标企业。(2)特定的非控制性投资交易主要指外国人士对涉及关键技术、关键基础设施和敏感个人数据的美国业务(合称“TID业务”)的投资,且该等投资会使外国人士(i)获取TID业务的重大非公开技术信息;(ii)成为TID业务公司的董事或观察员,或有权指派董事或观察员;或(iii)有权参与关于TID业务经营事项的重大决策。如果一项投资落入了这个范围,则不论是否取得了对目标企业的控制权都需要受到CFIUS的审查。(3)特定的房地产交易主要涉及位于或者接近敏感地理位置(例如军事设施、港口、机场或者其他可能影响美国国家安全的位置)的美国房地产030第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险被外国人士购买、租赁或被许可给外国人士使用的情况。注意,任何通过对交易形式的设计而使交易表面上不属于前述类别,意在规避 CFIUS 管辖权,但实质上应该落入 CFIUS 管辖权的交易,CFIUS 仍然有管辖权。以下两类受管辖的交易需要向 CFIUS 进行强制申报:(1)外国政府交易:即,交易完成后将导致美国 TID 业务公司的 25%或以上表决权权益被外国政府在其持有实质权益的外国买方收购,实质权益是指外国政府在该买方中直接或间接持有 49%或以上表决权权益;或者(2)关键技术交易:即,如果一项交易涉及(i)生产、设计、测试、制造、装配或开发关键技术的业务,且(ii)该等关键技术的输出、再输出、转移(国内)或再转移给外国投资者需要取得相关监管批准,那么这样的关键技术交易就需要进行申报。注意,此处关于出口管制的分析只是假定技术如果被出口、再出口和在国内的转移,而非交易本身实际会涉及到出口、再出口和在国内的转移。除以上两种情形外,CFIUS 审查是一个自愿申报程序,由交易各方根据对交易所涉及的国家安全风险的判断自行决定是否向 CFIUS 做申报。但是,如果交易方不申报,CFIUS 在获悉了交易后(无论交易是否已经完成,也无论完成了多久),依然可以依职权主动发起审查或是要求交易双方进行申报。CFIUS 的申报有两种形式:一是简要申报(Declaration),二是全面申报(Notice)。对于较为简单且国家安全敏感度低的交易,简要申报是一种可能的选择,CFIUS 会在接受简要申报后 30 天内对交易进行审查并做出决定,决定可能是通过交易,要求交易方提交正式申报或通知交易方未能完成审查。从统计数据看,使用简要申报的案例大部分是来自与美国关系良好的国家的投资者。全面申报的审查流程与简要申报相比则更为复杂。交易方需要先向 CFIUS 提交初步书面通知,在收到初步通知的 10 个工作日内,CFIUS 会反馈对初步通知的意见或者决定接受通知。在 CFIUS 正式接受申报后,CFIUS 会在其接受申报通知后的45 天内对交易进行初步审查;若发现该等交易可能涉及美国国家安全,则 CFIUS可以进一步对交易开展期限为 45 天的调查(在特殊情况下可以延长 15 天)。在031第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险实践中,交易双方通常会在这个阶段与 CFIUS 谈判,看是否具有就某些涉及国家安全的事项进行缓冲安排(mitigation)的可行性,并就此签署国家安全协议(National Security Agreement)或是保证函(Letter of Assurance),采取某些措施以降低 CFIUS 在国家安全方面的顾虑,从而换取 CFIUS 对交易的附条件同意。在调查期经过后,如果 CFIUS 依旧认为国家安全的顾虑无法解决,那么交易方一般会自行退出交易或者由 CFIUS 非正式的“劝退”;如果交易方对将交易进行下去比较坚持,CFIUS 有权将其调查结论提交美国总统,总统将在 15 天内做出最终裁决。虽然以上流程的期限明确,但实践中出现过在调查期临近结束时,CFIUS 提示交易方撤回申报和重新提交的情形,在这种情形下,整个期限要重新起计。而且,法律没有限制撤回和重新申报的次数,理论上可以发生多次撤回和重新申报。2.加拿大加拿大的外商投资审批法案是加拿大投资法案(ICA)。ICA 建立了两套审查制度,一是净效益(Net Benefit)审查,一是国家安全审查,两个审查是独立但又关连的程序。对于超过 ICA 中适用的财务标准的外国人士直接获得加拿大企业控制权的交易,必须提交强制的交割前审查(Review)申请,且必须在投资实施前获得创新、科学和工业部部长批准。对于超过财务标准的间接收购文化类业务的交易,必须提交强制审查申请,并获得加拿大文化遗产部部长的批准,这一程序在交割前或交割后完成均可。对于未超过适用财务标准的非文化类业务的直接收购,以及间接收购非文化类业务和设立新的加拿大业务的交易,均需要履行报告义务(Notification)(无需相关批准),报告可在交割前提交,也可以在交割后 30 日内提交。2022 年适用于 WTO 投资者(包括中国)的财务标准如下:032第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险表 2-1非国企直接投资(非文化类)11.41 亿加元企业价值直接投资(文化类)500 万加元资产价值国企直接投资(非文化)4.54 亿加元资产价值间接投资(文化类)5,000 万 加 元 资产价值强制审查使用“净效益”(Net Benefit)审查标准。投资者必须证明交易“可能对加拿大有净效益”方可获得必要批准,例如证明投资对经济、生产力及效率的影响。为获取该等批准,投资者通常被期许向创新、科学和工业部部长作出有约束力的承诺。根据 ICA 中的另行规定,政府有权以可能“危害加拿大国家安全”为由审查外国投资。审查范围包括对加拿大业务的全部或部分收购,无论是否构成对控制权变更。涉及国防、重要基础设施、重要货物和服务、战略物资等敏感行业的投资、临近或触及敏感政府设施业务的投资以及国有企业的投资,往往会受到更为严格的国家安全审查。就净效益审查而言,法定审查期为自收到完整申请后的 45 天,该时长可被相关部长单方延长30天,且可在投资者同意的情况下再行延长。就国家安全审查而言,创新、科学和工业部部长需要在收到完整净效益审查申请或交割完成(如无需提交申请)后的45天内进行初步审查并决定是否发出国家安全审查通知,经通知后创新、科学和工业部部长可有 45 天决定是否发起正式审查。其后,政府有 45 天时间完成审查并交由内阁作出决定,该时限可由政府延长 45 天或经投资者同意再行延长。如果创新、科学和工业部部长建议阻止交易,内阁有 20 天时间考虑创新、科学和工业部部长的建议。不考虑投资者同意延期的情况下,国家安全审查整个流程可达200 天。3.欧盟2020 年 10 月 11 日正式生效的欧盟外商直接投资条例(条例)确立033第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险了欧盟对外商直接投资审查框架,是欧盟层面首个基于国家安全和公共秩序理由的外商直接投资审查工具。该条例旨在补充,而非取代成员国的国家审查体系。根据该制度性框架,欧盟委员会可与各成员国交换各成员国政府在外商投资申报中收悉的有关信息。条例并未在欧盟层面建立独立的审查机制。具体地说,条例并未授权欧盟委员会对发生在欧盟内部的拟议外国投资进行审查、阻止或采取缓解措施。条例明确指出,有关阻止或对外国投资实施缓解措施的决定属于成员国的专属领域。但条例创建了一个信息共享机制,成员国须将在本国层面需要进行审查的外国投资通知欧盟委员会和其他成员国,共享以下信息:(1)外国投资者的所有权结构;(2)外国投资的价值;(3)外国投资者的产品、服务和经营活动;(4)交易日期。条例允许欧盟委员会审查“涉及欧盟利益”的特定投资(如涉及关键基础设施、关键技术、军民两用品、敏感信息及非欧盟国家政府的控制等的交易),并可向投资所在地的成员国出具无约束力意见。成员国必须认真考虑欧盟委员会的意见,但欧盟委员会无权否决交易或对交易附加条件。最终决定将始终由进行外商投资审查的成员国作出。欧盟委员会和其他成员国可在收到完整信息后的 35 日内向进行审查的成员国提供意见和评议。如欧盟委员会和/或其他成员国要求提供进一步信息,则该期限可以延长。4.德国2021 年 5 月 1 日起,德国施行新的外资审查法规德国对外贸易和支付条例,大幅度扩大了须向政府进行强制申报的外国直接投资交易的适用范围。非欧盟外国人士直接或间接对特定如军火、国防物资及政府信息安全等行业的超过 10%表决权的投资,需要事先获得政府批准。非上述特定行业的部分跨行业投资,也需要获得事前批准,该等跨行业投资可分为关键基建、关键产业、其他投资。关键基建包含能源、运输、电信等,强制申报的触发标准为 10%表决权。关034第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险键产业包含人工智能、半导体及网络安全等,强制申报的触发标准为 20%表决权。就非欧盟外国人士获取 25%或以上表决权的其他投资而言,如果政府认为该投资可能影响公共秩序或安全/利益,则该等投资需要获取事前批准。就表决权而言,由同一外国政府控制或资助的不同实体所持有股权或表决权要合并计算。就位于前述行业的公司的现有非欧盟外国股东的股权增持而言,其也需要在达到特定股权比例时进行强制申报。如果在交割前需要强制申报的交易未获得政府批准,即发生了抢跑行为,交易相关方可能会面临罚款甚至刑事处罚(包括监禁)。而政府可在签约后的 5 年内依职权主动发起相关交易的审查。审查分为两个阶段:第一阶段为两个月,由政府决定是否发起正式审查流程,如不发起,则交易被视为批准;第二阶段为四个月,该时限可因交易方提供信息或与政府商讨解决方案而被延长。5.意大利意大利的外国投资制度,即所谓的“黄金权力”制度,允许意大利政府对涉及外国人士投资法律规定的“战略性”行业的交易进行审查,并允许其对该等交易施加条件,甚至在国家经济或安全受到威胁时予以否决。该制度于 2012 年通过黄金权力法令引入,并通过其后的法令进行修订。对于任意外国人士而言,对国防及国家安全具有战略重要性的目标公司,如收购超过其股权的 3%(上市公司)或 5%(未上市公司),则必须提交申报。对于其他战略性行业,如能源、运输、水、卫生、通信、数据处理、人工智能、机器人、半导体、网络安全等,非欧盟外国人士收购具有战略重要性的公司不少于 10%股权或表决权且收购金额超过 100 万欧元的交易,或在收购后持有该等公司 15%、20%、25%及 50%股权的交易,需要进行强制申报。值得一提的是,特殊规定适用于 5G 和云科技行业。审查时限为45天,如需额外信息或涉及其他欧盟国家,可能导致审查周期延长。035第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险如为不复杂的交易,审查过程可以简化。违反申报规定可能导致民事和刑事制裁,包括要求 1 年内处置股权及处以不超过交易金额 2 倍但不低于交易相关方合并年营业额 1%的罚款等。政府可在事后依职权主动发起相关交易的审查。6.英国2021 年 4 月 29 日,英国议会通过了国家安全和投资法(National Secu-rity and Investment Act),确立了英国首个国家安全与外商投资的独立审查制度,建立了包括强制申报、自愿申报、主动审查(call in)等较为全面的机制。政府可基于国家安全对交易进行审查,可审查交易是指外国人士对涉英主体或资产进行投资,获得其权利或利益并达到一定控制程度的交易。满足股权标准或决策权标准即达成可审查交易要求的控制程度。(1)股权标准涵盖投资后获得超过 25%股权的、自低于 50%上升到 50%或自低于 75%上升到 75%以上的交易;而(2)决策权标准涵盖投资后的投票权可对公司事项拥有重大决策权的交易。就涉及基础设施、高科技、军事和军民两用技术、应急服务等17 个行业领域的可审查交易,交易方必须在交割前完成强制申报并获得批准。对于提交的申报,英国政府将有 30 个工作日的初步审查期,如果英国政府决定开展详细审查,将有额外 30 至 75 个工作日对交易进行详细审查(如果英国政府要求提供进一步资料,时限将停止计算)。对可能涉及国家安全但不属于强制申报领域的交易,政府在交割后五年内或知悉该等交易后 6 个月内,有主动审查权。但若相关交易本应受限于强制申报,则上述 5 年的审查期限限制不适用。7.澳大利亚2021 年澳大利亚进一步修改了其外国收购和接管法。根据该法,超过相关审查门槛的外商投资(包括开办企业)需提交国家安全审查的申报,由外国投资审查委员会(FIRB)负责审查。036第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险适用于不同行业和不同投资者的股权百分比及投资金额审查门槛各不相同。对与澳大利亚签有自由贸易协定的合作伙伴(包括中国)而言,一般非敏感(非土地类)交易金额门槛为 12.5 亿澳元;涉及国家安全业务、传媒业务或国家安全类/住宅类/空白商业类土地的交易的门槛为 0;如果任何投资为外国政府投资,门槛则为 0。就股权百分比而言,超过 20%股份的直接或间接收购即达成门槛要求,但涉及外国政府投资或敏感行业的话,比例可进一步降低。国库部长在交易方缴纳申报费用后的 30 天内需作出决定,该期限可在交易方同意的情况下延长,也可由 FIRB 书面通知交易方以延长 90 天审查期。该 90 天过后,FIRB 可通过签发临时命令(interim order)在上至 90 天内禁止交割的方式再延长 90 天的审查期限。通常来说,审查需用时 2-3 个月。在交易方未申报交易时,FIRB 有权在交割后 10 年内主动发起审查。8.印度印度于 2020 年 4 月公布了 Press Note 3(PN3),声明在与印度有陆地边界的国家(巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、缅甸和中国)成立的实体需在对印度直接或间接投资前预先获得政府批准。PN3 未规定适用投资限制的最低门槛,而市场惯例为就投后实益所有权达到或超过 10%的交易进行申报。印度政府并未公布 PN3 审查的时间线,但市场认为该审查可持续数月。以上是对我们代表客户执行交易的过程中经常遇到的一些国家的国家安全审查制度的简介。以上列举并非是穷尽式的,很多国家都有自己的外商投资/国家安全审查制度,大概的制度可能与上述列举的制度类似,中国企业需要提前了解东道主国家的国家安全审查制度,并做好如何解决这些国家通常主要关注的问题的预案。二、海外用工风险劳动法律规范植根于各国独特的政治经济文化传统及社会背景,存在较强的本土化特色,各国在工时薪酬、反歧视及性骚扰、解雇等方面的劳动法律规范存在较037第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险大差异。中国企业及个人海外投资过程中如未充分了解投资国当地劳动法律规范,按照本国定式处理海外用工关系,可能会引发劳动争议甚至海外群体性事件并面临相应法律风险。本章节中,我们结合实践中主要投资国的劳动法规范及典型案例,对海外投资面临的用工主要风险进行简述。1.用工类型及相关风险中国出海企业的用工模式主要包括外派员工模式和属地化用工模式两种:(1)外派员工模式外派员工模式即将中国员工派往境外企业工作。作为我国现行劳动法框架下常见的外派员工形式,对外投资外派指对外投资企业向其在境外设立的企业(子公司、分支机构、办事处等)派出中国员工。根据商务部关于加强对外投资合作在外人员分类管理工作的通知(通知),对外投资外派企业可以通过三种方式外派员工:一是向其境外企业派出已经与其签订劳动合同的自有员工,并为外派员工办理符合派驻地法律规定的工作手续;二是直接为其境外投资项目招收和外派人员,采用这一方式的企业必须取得对外承包工程或对外劳务合作经营资格;三是由对外投资企业的境外企业作为国外项目业主,与对外承包工程企业合作,由对外承包工程企业承揽其工程项目,并外派项目所需人员。根据通知,对外投资企业需要承担相应的义务,如按驻在国政府有关规定取得用工指标、组织外派人员培训和行前教育、及时向商务部有关驻外经商机构书面报备在外人员情况等。(2)属地化用工模式属地化用工模式即出海企业在投资国当地雇佣员工,具有降低签证等用工成本的优势,也是中国企业在境外平稳落地后进一步实现本土化的必然选择。基于各国劳动法律差异,出海企业在属地化用工过程中应注意符合投资国当地法律关于工时薪酬、反歧视与性骚扰、工会管理、解雇管理等各方面的规定,防范相应用工风险。038第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险2.移民签证及相关风险签证问题通常是外派员工赴境外工作需解决的首要问题。实践中,由于工作签证申请条件严格、办理手续复杂、过程耗时较长,部分企业选择为外派员工办理其他类型签证(如旅游签),此等行为一经当地机关查处,外派员工可能被遣返,企业也可能面临罚金甚至刑事责任。例如,美国移民改革和控制法规定,雇主有义务核实雇员的身份和工作许可,不得在知情的情况下招聘、雇佣或有偿介绍未经就业许可的移民。1 依据新西兰移民法案,明知外国公民未获许可而允许或持续雇佣其工作的,雇主将被处以最高 5 万新西兰元罚款。2 在菲律宾,如果外籍雇员未持有或伪造工作许可,该雇员及其雇主五年内不得申请工作许可,并将被处以每年 1 万比索罚款。3 可见,多数国家对于工作签证的审查态度较为严格,且大都规定了相应的雇主责任。除签证外,为对本国进行就业保护,部分国家还会设置各类限制措施,相关示例如下:(1)外国员工比例限制保加利亚要求公司的外国雇员和本国雇员比例不能超过 10%;4 俄罗斯联邦政府于每年 11 至 12 月份公布下一年度特定行业雇佣外国劳动力的比例限制,用工单位属于规定行业的,其雇佣的外国员工与本地员工比例不得高于规定比例。5(2)就业市场评估部分国家要求雇主在雇佣外国员工前向主管部门证明有必要雇佣外籍员工,1 U.S.Citizenship and Immigration Services,Legal Requirements and Enforcement,(May.11,2022),https:/www.uscis.gov/i-9-central/legal-requirements-and-enforcement/penalties2 New Zealand Immigration,Penalties for employing a person without the appropriate visa,New Zealand Immigration(May 12,2022),https:/www.immigration.govt.nz/knowledgebase/kb-question/kb-question-13193 Department of Labor and Employment(DOLE),Philippines:Department Order 221-21 Revised Rules and Regulations for the Issuance of Employment Permits to Foreign Nationals,DOLE(May 31,2022),https:/www.dole.gov.ph/news/department-order-221-20-revised-rules-and-regulations-for-the-issuance-of-employment-permits-to-foreign-nationals/4 欧盟成员国以及挪威、冰岛和列支敦士登居民除外,因为这些国家的居民及其亲属在保工作不需要工作许可。保劳工法律的核心内容和在保工作风险,载中华人民共和国商务部官网,http:/俄罗斯投资法律|企业雇佣外国员工的人数比例限制,载中俄法律网,http:/中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险且经多方招聘本国人无合适人选。例如,加拿大雇主在雇佣外国人之前,需要向加拿大劳动和社会保障部申请劳工市场影响评估,证明雇佣外籍员工具有必要性,且无加拿大国籍或持有加拿大永居权的人员适合这一岗位;6 菲律宾雇主为外籍员工申请就业许可时,需说明没有收到菲律宾人的申请或无菲律宾申请者符合岗位要求。7(3)聘用外籍员工补偿金部分国家还要求企业在雇佣外籍员工时向当地政府支付补偿金,用以弥补本地就业机会的损失。以印度尼西亚为例,企业需根据外籍员工的人数缴纳聘用外国劳动力补偿金,每个职位每月 100 美元,否则将无法为外籍员工办理工作许可。8(4)其他此外,部分国家为吸引高质量劳动力,对外派员工的资质提出了较高的要求,客观上增加了外派难度。例如,中国某建工集团在承揽澳大利亚某铁矿项目时,曾因不熟悉当地劳工政策导致施工进度受阻。因该集团未提前了解到澳大利亚要求赴澳工人必须通过雅思考试,电工、焊工等专业人员必须通过澳方相应考试,导致调遣中国工人几乎不具有可操作性,最终因项目施工需要该集团大量使用外籍工人,带来了高昂的人工成本。93.工时薪酬及相关风险各国对于员工权益保障的要求有所不同,作为员工权益保障的重点,出海企业应当充分关注投资国当地对于工时薪酬、休息休假方面的规定,了解可能面临的法律风险。具体包括:6 Government of Canada,What is a Labour Market Impact Assessment?Government of Canada(May 11,2022),https:/www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=163&top=177 同前注 3。8 See PNB Immigration Law Firm,PROCEDURE FOR REFUND FOREIGNER MANPOWER COMPENSATION FUND(DKPTKA/DPKK),(May 11,2022),https:/从中信泰富西澳铁矿项目看海外项目的法律风险,载广东省商务厅“走出去”公共服务平台,http:/中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(1)最低工资大部分国家就最低工资的规定较为清晰,但可能就不同地区、行业设置不同的最低工资标准,用人单位应根据所处地区及所属行业明确其应适用的最低工资标准,必要时可以咨询当地相关机构进行核实。(2)同工同酬各国对于同工同酬的要求侧重有所不同,部分国家为落实男女同工同酬设置了薪酬报告制度。以德国为例,2017 年通过的薪酬透明法规定,雇佣员工超过200 人的公司中,女性有权要求告知确定薪酬的标准和程序,以及同样岗位上男性同事工资的中位数。10 薪酬报告制度下,企业虽然不会直接受到处罚,但会影响企业的声誉和形象,从而对企业施加了无形的压力。(3)工时休假各国在员工工时及带薪年休假天数方面的规定也存在较大差异,欧美国家的休假天数一般高于中国大陆地区水平,例如,法国雇员工作满 12 个月后可享受 35 天带薪年休假;澳大利亚雇员自入职起享有法定 4 周带薪年休假;11 英国的法定带薪年假为 5.6 周,具体天数用 5.6 周乘以每周工作天数,但不能超过 28 天。12就延长工作时间而言,部分国家严禁雇主随意要求员工超时加班。在前述中国某建工集团在承揽西澳大利亚铁矿项目中,原计划工期延误时,该集团曾计划像在国内一样要求项目员工加班赶工。但在澳大利亚,雇主不能随意要求工人加班,且实行工作 9 天,休息 5 天的“9 5”模式,工人在下班时间后即不再工作。该集团因不熟悉当地劳工政策导致策划失误,工期多次延误,项目损失巨大。134.反歧视与性骚扰及相关风险10 Bundesminsterium der Justiz,Gesetz zur Frderung der Entgelttransparenz zwischen Frauen und Mnnern(Entgelttransparenzgesetz-EntgTranspG),Bundesminsterium der Justiz(Mai 12,2022),https:/www.gesetze-im-internet.de/entgtranspg/BJNR215210017.html11 参见陆敬波、王天怡、黄雅暄:企业“走出去”海外用工合规风险识别与防范,载中国人事科学2019 年第 10 期,第 41 页。12 UK Government,Holiday entitlement,GOV.UK(May 12,2022),https:/www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights13 同前注 9。041第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(1)禁止歧视理由禁止就业歧视旨在维护劳动者的平等就业权。从国际劳工组织(ELO)到各个国家及地区均有涉及禁止就业歧视的相关法律、公约。以美国为例,其已构建起一套包含宪法修正案、联邦法律、州法律、总统行政指令在内的禁止就业歧视法律体系,14 明确规定了禁止雇主因雇员的性别、种族、肤色、国籍、性取向、年龄、怀孕、残疾、基因和宗教而歧视雇员,其中性骚扰即为一种基于性别的歧视。美国还设置了平等就业机会委员会专门负责执行就业歧视相关的联邦立法,并为受到歧视的雇员或者求职者提供控诉的渠道。需要注意的是,虽然 ELO 于 1958 年出台的消除就业和职业歧视公约 列举了三种不构成歧视的例外,15 美国也存在“真实职业资格”(“Bona Fide Occupational Qualification”)的就业歧视免责事由,但是否构成该例外或免责事由尚无立法明文标准,且个案的审判情况各异,企业若期待借此免责存在较大的风险。(2)性骚扰构成标准2017年“Me too”运动席卷全球,再次引起人们对职场性骚扰问题的强烈关注。各国和地区对职场性骚扰的分类大同小异,以美国为例,其将职场性骚扰分为两种类型:交换(quid pro quo)和敌意工作环境(hostile work environment),其中前者主要是以工作上的利益或者免除工作上的损害来交换雇员的同意性行为,后者是在工作环境中作出包含性意味、有敌意并令人产生恐惧或者有辱人格的行为。关于性骚扰的构成标准,美国联邦法例明确规定在以下情况下不受欢迎的性挑逗、性要求以及其他具有性性质的口头或肢体行为构成性骚扰:(1)服从这种行为是明示或暗示的雇佣条件;(2)服从或拒绝这种行为被用作对该个人有影响的雇佣决定的依据;或(3)这种行为的目的或效果是不合理地干扰该个人的工作表现,或创造一种恐吓、敌意或冒犯性的工作环境。16 此外,ELO 于 2019 年通14 包括但不限于美国1964 年民权法案第七章1967 年反劳动者年龄歧视法1973 年康复法1978 年反怀孕歧视法家庭与医疗休假法同酬法案1990 年美国残疾人法案2008 年基因信息反歧视法案等。15 三种不构成歧视的例外包括:(1)基于特殊工作本身的要求的区别对待;(2)在有正当理由怀疑某人从事损害国家安全的活动或某人正在从事损害国家安全的活动的情况下,对其采取任何措施,不应视为歧视,但该人应有权向按照本国习惯设立的主管机构申诉;(3)对特殊群体(尤其是弱势群体)的特殊保护。16 CFR 1604.11 Sexual Harassment042第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险过的 关于消除劳动世界中的暴力和骚扰的公约 将发生在与工作有关的通讯、出行、旅行、培训及活动或社交活动期间以及上下班通勤时的性骚扰均视为职场性骚扰。17(3)雇主责任关于发生职场性骚扰后用人单位应承担的雇主责任,各个国家和地区的规定存在明显不同。美国法项下根据骚扰者是否具有管理者身份以及是否令受害者的工作条件受到实质影响规定了三种类型的雇主责任:严格替代责任、推定替代责任和过失责任。18 在劳务派遣情形下,若用工单位与派遣单位构成共同雇主,劳务派遣单位也要承担相应雇主责任。19 英国受美国的启发和影响,在 1975 年通过的性别歧视法中明确规定了性骚扰案件中的雇主代理责任,并规定了雇主的免责事由(即已贯彻落实有效措施处理性骚扰问题的雇主免责情形),但雇主也因此承担了较大的证明责任;另外,只要雇员处于工作环境中,雇主还需保护雇员免受第三方的性骚扰。除了民事责任,如果自然人雇主本人或者机构代理人是骚扰人,雇主还可能构成法国刑法典规定的“性骚扰罪”,被处以监禁和罚金等处罚。因此,中国企业在海外用工的过程中若缺乏对雇主责任的理解,将可能面临承担民事乃至刑事责任的风险。5.工会管理及相关风险(1)工会特征工会作为代表劳动者利益的群众组织,一方面可以成为劳动者维权的“利器”,另一方面也可能成为企业经营管理的“拦路虎”。各个国家和地区都有其独特的工会制度,比如美国崇尚结社自由,其工会主要包含三个层次:地方性工会、全国性工会和全国联合会,其中地方性工会虽从属于全国性工会,但可以自主进行集体谈判、罢工等活动;全国性工会主要负责制定行业内集体谈判的标准,以及与地方性工会一起参与集体谈判;全国联合会的代表即为劳联-产联(AFL-CIO),其主要17 法国劳动法典第 1153-2 条规定,“任何雇员、参加培训或在实习的人、招聘候选人在企业工作、培训、实习或招聘、实习期间均不得因接受或拒绝接受第 1153-1 条规定的性骚扰或视作性骚扰的情况而直接或间接地受到惩罚、辞退或者任何形式的歧视。”18 参见卢杰锋:美国职场性骚扰雇主责任的判例法分析,载妇女研究论丛2016 年第 3 期,第 77 页。严格替代责任:骚扰者具有管理者身份且令受害者的工作条件受到实质影响;推定替代责任:骚扰者具有管理者身份但未令受害者的工作条件受到实质影响;过失责任:骚扰者不具有管理者身份且未令受害者的工作条件受到实质影响。19 参见谢增毅:美国劳务派遣的法律规制及对我国立法的启示兼评我国的相关规定,载 比较法研究2007 年第 6 期,第 110 页。043第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险负责组织和协调全国性工会和地方性工会的工作,不参与集体谈判,但可以通过院外活动、选举等参与政治活动。俄罗斯的工会本质是一种特殊的公共协会和非营利组织,其建立的唯一目标是代表和保护其成员的劳工权利与利益,劳动者加入工会完全出于自愿,且工会的活动不受行政当局、地方自治机构、雇主、政党和其他公共协会的控制。(2)工会罢工罢工作为表达劳动者集体诉求的方式之一,在部分国家和地区获得了立法上的肯定,但在有些国家,工会罢工也必须符合非常严苛的条件。例如,美国和俄罗斯均通过立法的方式赋予工会罢工的权利。美国早在 1935 年国会通过的全国劳工关系法中承认了工人罢工的权利。然而,鉴于在工会组织罢工期间,企业将面临巨额税收、租金、水电等成本,工人亦没有收入,对于劳资双方都会产生严重的经济损失;因而美国罢工的启动必须满足一定的条件;20 俄罗斯俄联邦宪法俄联邦工会法以及俄联邦劳动法典均确立了罢工为解决集体劳动争议、保护职工劳动权益的合法手段。作为对比,马来西亚虽然也通过立法赋予了工会发起罢工的权利,但同时通过1967 年劳资关系法以及1959 年工会法对工会发起罢工的程序、允许罢工的行业领域等方面规定了诸多的限制条件,还为非法罢工行为设置了较为严重的惩罚。216.解雇管理及相关风险(1)解雇理由与中国劳动法规定的法定解除情形不同,域外企业典型的解雇理由主要包括自由解雇、合理解雇和合法解雇。自由解雇即不需要解雇理由、补偿金、通知期就可以解雇员工。受契约自由理论的影响,美国自独立之后一直实行自由解雇制度,但也规定了解雇自由的一些例20 U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.Union Member 2019-2020.21 马来西亚1967 年劳资关系法规定,参与非法罢工以及教唆他人罢工的将被处以 1000 令吉以下的罚款或 1 年以下有期徒刑或是两者并罚。而对于资助非法罢工的人将被处以 500 令吉以下的罚款或是 6 个月以下的有期徒刑或两者并罚。044第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险外情况,主要涉及到公共政策的例外22、雇佣合同中所包含的一些原则性例外23和经济因素所导致的例外性规定。另外,因为雇员的怀孕、病假、残疾等因素终止劳动关系也是违法的。合理解雇属于相对自由的解雇模式,但需要雇主提供解雇理由。英国将不当解雇划分为普通法或习惯法上的不正当解雇与成文法或制定法上的不公平解雇。雇主虽然不需要解雇理由即可随意解雇劳动者,但雇主不履行解雇通知或没有充分履行会导致普通法上的不正当解雇;而雇主缺乏合理或正当解雇理由会构成成文法上的不公平解雇。24英国 1996 年雇佣权利法规定,除某些特别情况外,每一名雇员享有不得被不公平解雇的权利。要符合正当解雇的要件,雇主必须首先证明解雇理由符合雇佣权利法和工会和劳工关系法等法律规范。25合法解雇即解雇必须符合法定条件、法定程序、法定解雇补偿。西班牙法律规定,雇主单方解雇员工应当符合法定解除情形(例如,存在雇员不胜任、雇员连续两个月间歇性缺勤时间达工作时间的 20%等“客观理由”,雇员触发旷工、性骚扰或歧视等纪律处分事由)。在雇佣后雇主发现员工不称职或事先没有预料到员工会不称职的,在提供培训或新岗位之后,如果员工仍不胜任,雇主可以解除合同,但应给予 15 天通知或支付 15 日工资的代通知金。(2)违法解雇的法律责任若雇主的解雇行为被认定为违法、不当或者不公平,其将承担何种法律责任亦为出海企业劳动管理所要面临的重要风险之一。英国成文法为不公平解雇设计了恢复劳动关系、重新雇佣26和经济性赔偿或补偿三种救济方式。对于前两种救济方式,实践中法院通常会多方考量雇员本身的诉求和雇主对判决的执行是否真实可行等要素自由裁量决定采取哪一种方式;而经济性赔偿或补偿则包括基本赔偿金、补偿性22 例如:雇主不可在雇员申请工伤赔偿、或举报雇主违法行为、或拒绝帮雇主进行违法行为后解除劳动关系。23 例如:明示合同原则、默示合同原则、承诺禁反言原则以及诚实信用原则。24 合理的解雇理由包括雇员自身能力或资格不胜任,或者雇员自身行为不规范,或者在法定情形下无法继续胜任职责等实质性理由;不合理的理由主要指法律规定的禁止性解雇事由,包括雇员参加或拒绝参加工会及其活动、怀孕或分娩、向雇主要求法定权利等。25 董保华、刘海燕:解雇保护制度研究,载劳动法评论2005 年第 1 期,第 217-219 页。26 根据英国 1996 年雇佣权利法,重新雇佣是指遭受不公平解雇的雇员重新与雇主建立新的劳动关系,原来的劳动关系随之终止,其可以恢复到原来的职位或者相较而言比原职位待遇更好的新职位。045第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险赔偿金和额外赔偿金三种。27 美国虽然针对不当解雇也规定了恢复劳动关系和经济性赔偿的救济方式,但在适用经济赔偿金时需要综合考虑多种要素并以被解雇雇员的实际损失为限,相较于英国对被解雇雇员的救济力度较小。此外,西班牙同样规定如果雇主单方解雇被判定为无效或违法,则雇员通常有权要求恢复职位,并主张工资损失。三、单边制裁1.美国制裁的基本规则介绍(1)概述自 2001 年 9.11 事件以来,经济制裁已经日益成为美国应对国家安全、外交政策和经济利益威胁的首选工具之一。根据 2021 年 10 月 18 日美国财政部所发布的2021 年度制裁评估报告,在过去 20 年中,制裁清单中的列明实体从 2000 年至今增加了 9 倍,从 2000 年的 912 个飞增至 2021 年的 9,421 个。由于美国越来越多地将制裁作为地缘政治角力工具,基于其在国际金融、贸易体系中的重要地位,美国的经济制裁日益成为中国企业海外业务拓展过程中不可忽视的问题。(2)美国制裁的法律体系目前,美国的经济制裁由一系列相对独立的制裁法律和相应的行政法规所构成。依据适用基本法律不同,美国主要的经济制裁项目大体上可以分为以下三类:依据1917年与敌国贸易法(1917 Trading with the Enemy Act 28,下称TWEA)设置的制裁,目前TWEA制裁的主要适用领域为针对古巴的制裁;依据紧急国际经济状态授权法(International Emergency Eco-27 参见谢增毅:雇主不当解雇雇员的赔偿责任,载西北政法大学学报2010 年第 3 期,第 130-131 页。28 50 U.S.C.app.1-44046第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险nomics Powers Act 29,下称IEEPA)设置的制裁。这也是目前美国运用最为普遍的制裁法律渊源;联合国参与法(the United Nations Participation Act 30,下称UNPA)下的制裁,主要适用于美国参与的联合国制裁项目。以上三类制裁主要由美国财政部外国资产控制办公室(Office of Foreign As-sets Control,下称 OFAC)具体实施,美国国务院的经济制裁政策与实施办公室(Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation,下称 SPI)也会负责对外经济制裁的政策制定和实施问题。此外,美国财政部金融犯罪执法网络局(The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network,下称 FinCEN)对美国金融体系中通过洗钱、非法利用美国金融系统等行为违反制裁的行为具有一定的执法权。(3)被制裁国/地区和被制裁实体(制裁项目)不同于出口管制法,美国制裁法是以被制裁国/地区和被制裁实体为核心,以单独制裁项目的形式,规制与被制裁对象进行的交易以及对该等交易所提供的协助行为。目前,根据被制裁国/地区以及被制裁实体的类型不同,美国现有的主要制裁项目可分为以下几种:针对特定国家和实体的制裁;反恐怖主义制裁;反大规模杀伤性武器制裁;反毒品和麻醉品交易制裁;钻石贸易制裁;跨国犯罪组织制裁。29 50 U.S.C.1701-170630 22 U.S.C.287c047第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险根据 OFAC 目前公布的制裁项目清单,美国现行各种类别的制裁项目合计共有以下 37 个:表 2-2序号经济制裁项目所涉国家/地区最新制裁政策更新时点1阿富汗相关制裁02/25/20222巴尔干半岛相关制裁06/06/20223白俄罗斯相关制裁03/15/20224缅甸相关制裁03/25/20225中非共和国相关制裁12/17/20216中国军工复合体清单06/01/20227以制裁反制美国对手法下制裁03/31/20228反毒品交易制裁06/02/20229国际反恐怖主义制裁06/15/202210古巴制裁06/08/202211网络相关制裁05/06/202212刚果民主共和国制裁03/17/202213埃塞俄比亚相关制裁02/08/202214外国干预美国选举制裁03/03/202215全球马格尼茨基制裁03/21/2022048第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险序号经济制裁项目所涉国家/地区最新制裁政策更新时点16香港相关制裁12/20/202117伊朗制裁06/10/202218伊拉克相关制裁04/30/202119黎巴嫩相关制裁10/28/202120利比亚制裁04/11/202221马格尼茨基制裁03/24/202222马里相关制裁02/06/202023尼加拉瓜相关制裁01/10/202224防不扩散制裁05/27/202225朝鲜制裁05/27/202226血钻制裁06/18/201827俄罗斯有害外国活动制裁06/14/202228索马里制裁09/22/202129苏丹和达尔富尔制裁05/23/202230南苏丹相关制裁02/26/202031叙利亚制裁06/10/202232叙利亚相关制裁07/28/202133跨国犯罪组织制裁04/11/2022049第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险序号经济制裁项目所涉国家/地区最新制裁政策更新时点34乌克兰/俄罗斯相关制裁06/02/202235委内瑞拉相关制裁06/10/202236也门相关制裁11/18/202137津巴布韦制裁08/05/2020针对制裁实体,美国一般会将相关实体列入专门的制裁清单。其中,最主要的制裁清单是特别指定国民清单(Special Designated Nationals and Blocked Per-sons List,下称 SDNs 清单)。对于列入 SDNs 清单的实体,美国一般会冻结其在美国境内或由美国人控制的资产。除此以外,美国针对特别的制裁项目,另设专门的制裁清单,这些制裁清单下冻结美国境内资产并非必要要件。如针对违反美国制裁的境外实体的境外制裁违反者清单(Foreign Sanction Evaders List,下称 FSE List)、针对特定违反美国制裁项目的境外金融机构的受通汇账户或过渡账户制裁的境外金融机构清单(List of Foreign Financial Institutions Subject to Corre-spondent Account or Payable-Through Account Sanctions,下称CAPTA List)等,对其相关交易进行限制。此外,根据 OFAC 于 2014 年 8 月 13 日公布的关于资产和资产利益被冻结人员所持有实体的调整指南31,美国在制裁执法中引入了 50%规则,即:即使相关实体并未被列入制裁清单内,但只要该相关实体超过 50%以上的股权或控制权(包括直接或间接控制)为制裁清单内实体所持有,那么与该交易对象的交易将被视同于由制裁清单内实体进行,并受到相关制裁法的规制。目前而言,50%规则对SDNs 清单内实体完全适用,但对于其他制裁清单而言,则需根据情况而定。例如,在针对中国军工复合体公司(Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies,下称 CMIC)的制裁中,OFAC 在问答中便明确说明其不适用 50%规则。而针对俄罗斯的行业识别制裁清单(Sectoral Sanctions Identifications List,下称SSI清单),31 Revised Guidance on Entities Owned by Persons Whose Property and Interest in Property are Blocked,https:/www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/licensing_guidance.pdf050第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险根据 OFAC 的说明,50%规则对其适用。(4)禁止行为如前所述,美国的制裁法下,其主要规制的行为包括与被制裁对象进行的交易以及对该等交易所提供的协助行为。对于禁止交易,根据具体制裁项目的不同,涵盖的类别包括多种经贸活动,譬如:进出口;航运;证券投资;个人旅行;投资;各种类型的金融服务等。而对于对禁止交易的协助行为,目前 OFAC 也采取了一个扩张解释的态度。针对前述受规制的交易行为,为其提供的一系列协助和服务,均可能会被定义为对禁止行为的协助。譬如,原苏丹制裁条例(Sudanese Sanctions Regula-tions32,下称 SSR)列明的协助行为包括:使得苏丹受益的商业和法律咨询服务;制定在苏丹的投资和交易计划;与苏丹交易相关的交易架构设计;运输苏丹货物;32 31.C.F.R.Part 538051第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险 为苏丹提供融资;为苏丹提供保险。目前在其他制裁项目中,一般也会参照适用类似的协助行为认定标准来判断相关行为是否构成对受禁止交易提供协助。(5)制裁形式与后果目前美国制裁法可分为一级制裁和次级制裁两种形式。长期以来,美国在制裁法下受规制的主体和行为一般需要具有美国司法法域下的连接点。在此类情况下,OFAC 可直接援引 IEEPA 和其他制裁法律渊源的相关规定予以处罚,即所谓的一级制裁常见的美国连接点包括:当事人是美国实体(在很多制裁项目中,美国实体包括美国实体直接或间接控制的非美国实体);使用美元作为交易币种;利用美国银行作为通知行;利用美国的分支机构参与交易,包括分摊费用;雇佣美国公民参与特定交易;货物的物流经过美国。在此情况下,美国可以对于违反制裁规定的主体施以相应的刑事和行政处罚,具体处罚幅度如下:表 2-3052第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险序号处罚描述1民事罚款以 IEEPA 制裁为例,民事罚款金额为:(1)单笔最高 330,947 美元33的罚款;或者(2)该违法行为基础的交易金额的两倍罚款。二者之中高者作为民事罚款。2扣押货物以伊朗交易制裁条例为例,美国可以依据制裁规定,扣押发往伊朗的货物。3禁止交易和限制入境根据总统行政令 13608 号,任何违反美国制裁法律规定的外国个人和实体,将被禁止进行任何与美国有关的商业活动,包括:从美国进口货物,通过美元系统进行交易结算。相关人等还将被施以旅行禁令,禁止进入美国。4刑事罚款以 IEEPA 制裁为例,单笔最高 1,000,000 美元的罚款。5有期徒刑以 IEEPA 制裁为例,对于单位犯罪的主要负责人员(包括所有明知或应知该犯罪行为并参与的董事、高管、职员)及自然人犯罪的罪犯,最高可处以 20 年有期徒刑。但是,在 2011 年,为了全面加紧对伊朗的制裁,美国在2012 财年国防 授 权 法(The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012,下称 2012 NDAA)中引入了所谓“次级制裁”的概念。根据 2012 NDAA 第 1245(d)(4)(c)条的规定,任何外国金融机构如果为伊朗的石油交易提供重大协助,那么即使该交易没有任何美国的连接点,美国同样可以对外国金融机构予以制裁,将其列入制裁清单内。这一新的制裁形式被称为次级制裁。在 2012 年之后,美国对次级制裁的适用越来越广泛,除在伊朗制裁领域外,对朝鲜、委内瑞拉等国的制裁项目上,OFAC 也广泛运用次级制裁对与受制裁实体开展禁止交易或为禁止交易提供协助的外国实体进行制裁。例如,在 2012 年,OFAC 以中国某银行和超过 6 家伊朗银行开展结算交易等为由对该中国银行进行制33 最新金额调整见财政部2022年2月9日的公告:https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/09/2022-02736/inflation-adjustment-of-civil-monetary-penalties。053第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险裁,并将其列入制裁清单内34。不过目前,对于引起次级制裁的“重大协助”的标准,OFAC 并没有给出任何量化指标。参照 OFAC 关于乌克兰自由支持法(Ukraine Freedom Support Act,下称 UFSA)及以制裁打击美国对手法(Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,下称 CAATSA)中关于次级制裁的问答,OFAC 会基于个案,从以下几个角度对不存在美国连接点的交易判断其是否构成“重大交易”35:交易的规模、金额和频次;交易的性质;对交易性质的认识和管理情况;被制裁对象与交易的关系;交易的影响;交易是否存在欺诈或规避的情形。而对于次级制裁的对象,OFAC 并不会直接予以罚款等行政处罚,一般会将其列入相应的制裁清单内【包括 SDNs 清单、受通汇账户或过渡账户制裁的境外金融机构清单(List of Foreign Financial Institutions Subject to Correspondent Ac-count or Payable-Through Account Sanctions,下称 CAPTA 清单)等】,将其视同制裁对象施加以全方位交易限制,包括冻结和没收在美国的资产、全面切断美元服务、颁布旅行禁令等。(6)制裁风险的主要关注点如上所述,目前美国设有多份制裁清单,但是不同的制裁清单中的实体可能因不同的制裁项目而被列入,而同一制裁项目下被制裁的不同实体也可能被列入不同34 https:/www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1661.aspx35 https:/www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Sanctions/Pages/faq_other.aspx#542054第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险的清单。根据 OFAC 的说明36,虽然 SDN 清单是目前最主要的制裁清单,但是,列入 SDN 清单中的实体,除将面临冻结和没收在美国资产的共有制裁之外,其所受的其他具体制裁内容,则必须根据制裁项目所依据的法规具体来判断,在此基础上,再根据被列入实体的具体原因和事由确定最终的制裁内容。以大规模杀伤性武器扩散者制裁条例(Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators Sanctions Regulations37,下称 WMDPSR)中被视为大规模杀伤性武器支持者和扩散者(WMD Proliferators and Supporters)的制裁为例,此类被制裁者根据 WMDPSR,将被列入 SDN 清单,且在清单中被标识为 NPWMD。根据 WMDPSR 的规定,NPWMD 类制裁实体的一般制裁内容包括:冻结在美资产、禁止交易、查封银行账户和计息账户、禁止对其进行投资等。但此外,美国还会根据特定的总统行政令、财政部指导意见等对具体实体加列特定的制裁要求。如在 2017 年 5 月 17 日,OFAC 以帮助伊朗发展弹道导弹,违反 WMDPSR 为由,将三家中国贸易公司加入SDN清单,并声明适用总统行政令E.O.13382的制裁内容,即:除冻结资产之外,禁止任何对其提供资金、货物、服务等领域的帮助或协助,并禁止任何美国实体从相关公司获取任何资金、货物、服务等领域的帮助或协助;禁止任何美国人参与的或有任何美国连接点的交易;禁止任何试图规避此类制裁的行为。这也意味着与相关实体的交易除需确认 WMDPSR 的制裁内容外,还需再进一步确认相关总统行政令的具体制裁内容。对于非 SDN 清单内的制裁实体,其具体制裁措施的确认方式也是类似的做法。以 CAPTA 清单为例,根据 OFAC 于 2018 年 3 月 5 日关于修改朝鲜制裁36 https:/www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/SDN-List/Pages/program_tags.aspx37 31 C.F.R.part 544 055第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险条例(North Korea Sanctions Regulation38,下称 NKSR)的公告39,美国就为朝鲜提供过渡账户和通汇银行账户的境外金融机构专门设置了 CAPTA 清单,列入其中的境外金融机构将按 NKSR 所列的制裁规定接受制裁。随后,2019 年3 月 15 日,OFAC 又发布新的公告将原在 561 清单下受伊朗金融制裁条例(Iranian Financial Sanctions Regulation,下称IFSR)和 真主党金融制裁条例(Hizballah Financial Sanctions Regulations,下称 HFSR)制裁的境外金融机构以及受 UFSA 制裁的境外金融机构一并归入 CAPTA 清单进行统一管理。至此,CAPTA 清单也成为一个涵盖多种制裁项目的制裁清单。但 CAPTA 清单内的境外金融机构具体所受的制裁内容,同样除了共有的封锁通汇银行账户和过渡账户外,还需根据其直接适用的制裁项目来进一步确认。以境内某银行(K 银行)为例,K 银行在 2012 年 7 月 31 日被 OFAC 以违反 伊朗综合制裁、问责和撤资法(Comprehensive Iran Sanctions,Accountability,and Divestment Act40,下称 CISADA)的相关规定而遭到 OFAC 制裁41,目前被列入 CAPTA 清单内。但根据 OFAC 关于 K 银行的制裁问答,除美国银行和其他境外金融机构不得帮助、协助 K 银行在美国开立通汇银行账户和过渡账户外,对于任何金融机构与 K 银行的任何交易,都属于高风险交易,所有金融机构,无论位于美国境内或境外,均需在完善的尽职调查基础上才能与其进行交易。但是,针对 K 银行的制裁不涉及对K 银行美国境内资产的冻结和没收,在尽职调查结果认为涉及 K 银行的交易不存在 CISADA 下违规风险的情况下,相关金融机构仍然可以与 K 银行之间开展业务往来42。顺便提及的是,在 2019 年 5 月 2 日,美国财政部发布了OFAC 合规承诺框架43,从 OFAC 的角度提供制裁合规体系(Sanctions Compliance Program,SCP)的核心要素,以供所有美国公司与受制裁法管辖的外国公司进行内部合规体系建设参考之用。OFAC在 承诺框架 中特别强调,如果因违反制裁规定导致处罚,一个充分、完善的 SCP 可以成为 OFAC 减轻处罚的重要考量因素。38 31 C.F.R.part 51039 https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/03/05/2018-04113/north-korea-sanctions-regulations40 22 U.S.C.8501.855141 https:/www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1661.aspx42 https:/www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Sanctions/Pages/faq_iran.aspx#212,Treasury CISADA Findings Against Bank of Kunlun43 https:/home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/framework_ofac_cc.pdf 056第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险四、出口管制1.美国出口管制规则基本综述(a)美国出口管制的法律体系美国出口管制可以从广义和狭义两个层面来理解。广义上而言,是指美国政府对特定敏感商品、软件和技术的出口、再出口和(国内)转移行为,施加特定限制措施的管理行为,其体系主要由监管两用物项的美国出口管理条例(EAR)、监管国防物品和国防服务的国际武器贸易条例(ITAR)、美国其他行政部门管理并执行的出口管制法规构成。就狭义层面而言,美国出口管制是指以 EAR 为核心、以两用物项管制为目的而形成的法律法规体系。2018 年 8 月 13 日,美国总统特朗普签署通过了2018 年出口管制改革法案(Export Control Reform Act of 2018,下称 ECRA),该法案的通过为 EAR 提供了永久性的上位法律依据。(b)受控物项和受控行为EAR 管理大多数商业物品和一些军事物品的出口、再出口和(国内)转移行为。美国出口管制主管机构美国商务部工业与安全局(Bureau of Industry and Securi-ty,下称BIS)管辖的许多物品被称为“两用物项”(“两用”通常指既具有民用用途,又具有军事用途),但某些军事物品以及无明显军事用途的纯商业物品也属于 EAR的管辖。i)两用物项(Dual-use Item)在EAR的语境下,“物项”是指商品、软件或技术。两用物项是指既有民用用途,又同时具备恐怖主义、军事,或大规模杀伤性武器用途的物项。ii)国内转移(Transfer in Country)国内转移是指一个物项在美国以外的一个国家内,改变最终用途或最终用户的行为。057第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险iii)出口(Export)出口指任何从美国向美国以外的国家和地区进行的运输和传输物项的行为,不限于将有形商品运出国境,还包括软件和技术通过各种形式(如传真、电子邮件、网络、交谈等)传输至境外;此外,物项暂时离开美国、经美国转运、由美国退回原产国(非美国原产)都被认为是出口。iv)视同出口(Deemed Export)视同出口是指将把受控技术或源代码披露(Release)或传输(Transfer)给在美国的外国人的行为也视为对该外国人所属国的出口。视同出口这一概念有别于一般意义上的出口,我们通常认为实物离开一国国境时构成出口,但根据EAR 规定的视同出口的概念,非美国人在美国境内看到或被口头告知一项技术,也构成 EAR 项下的出口,即为视同出口。v)再出口(Re-export)再出口是指受 EAR 管辖的物项从一个美国以外的国家运抵或传输至另一个美国以外的第三国。(c)禁止性行为i)一般禁止一(General Prohibition One):向清单国家出口和再出口受管制物项针对于 ECCN 中所载明的管控物项基于其相应的管控原因,以及针对于不同的最终目的地,任何需要申请许可证的物项在未经许可或没有适用许可例外情形时,不得将任何受 EAR 管辖的物项出口或再出口任何原产于美国的物项到其他国家。ii)一般禁止二(General Prohibition Two):从美国以外的国家再出口和出口含有超过最低减让标准受控成分的外国制造物项058第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险根据 EAR 的规定,如果外国产物项并入或混有美国组分的比例超过最低减让标准的比例规定,则该物项的出口或再出口即有相应的许可要求,那么未经许可或无适用许可例外时,不得将并入、捆绑或是混有美国原产受控商品的外国产商品、软件和技术,从美国以外的国家出口或再出口。iii)一般禁止三(General Prohibition Three):外国直接产品(FDP)规则 未经许可,不得从国外出口、再出口或境内转移734.9节规定的受EAR管辖的外国直接产品,如果该等物项受EAR第736、742、744、746或764部分许可证要求的管制。如果符合特定许可例外的所有条款和条件,且不适用EAR第740.2条或第744.11(a)条的限制,则EAR第740部分所述的每项许可例外均可取代一般禁止三而被适用。iv)一般禁止四(General Prohibition Four):从事拒绝令禁止的活动不得采取根据 EAR 第 766 部分行政强制程序发布的拒绝令所禁止的任何活动,该等拒绝令禁止被剥夺出口特权的人的许多行为,除了禁止开展直接出口以外还包括禁止通过他人【在同一个国家内(不论美国或国外)】的转移。任何交易参与方均有责任确保任何涉及被剥夺出口特权人员参与的交易不会违反拒绝令的条款。v)一般禁止五(General Prohibition Five):向被禁止的最终用途或最终用户出口或再出口未经许可,不得故意向 EAR 第 744 部分所禁止的最终用户或最终用途出口或再出口任何受 EAR 管辖的物品。vi)一般禁止六(General Prohibition Six):向禁运目的地出口或再出口未经许可,不得将受 EAR 管辖的任何物项出口或再出口至 EAR 第 746059第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险部分所述的美国禁运或受其他管制的国家。vii)一般禁止七(General Prohibition Seven):禁止支持扩散活动和某些军事情报最终用途和最终用户(“美国人”活动)viii)一般禁止八(General Prohibition Eight):从船舶和飞机上卸下的过境货物和物项未经许可或有适用的许可例外,不得向亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、白俄罗斯、柬埔寨、古巴、格鲁吉亚、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、老挝、蒙古、朝鲜、俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌克兰、乌兹别克斯坦、越南,出口、再出口或在其境内转口任何物项。ix)一般禁止九(General Prohibition Nine):违反任何命令、条款或条件不得违反根据 EAR 颁发的许可、许可例外或命令中的任何条款或条件。x)一般禁止十(General Prohibition Ten):在明知违规行为已经发生或即将发生的情况下继续进行交易不得在明知已经发生或将要发生违反EAR、出口管理法 或任何命令、许可证、许可例外或其他授权的行为的情况下,继续销售、转让、出口、再出口、资助、订购、购买、转移、隐藏、存储、使用、贷款、处置、运输或转运任何受 EAR 管辖的物项。(1)管制措施为明确具体物项出口、再出口或国内转移是否可能触发出口许可的管控要求,BIS 从最终目的地、最终用户&最终用途两个层面制定了相应的出口管制措施。在判断特定物项出口、再出口或国内转移时是否需要申请出口许可证时,从最终用户&最终用途的角度而言,应当先判断交易是否涉及禁止或限制的最终用途和最终用户。060第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险从最终目的地的角度而言,则需判断特定物项是否触及 EAR 项下所列特定国家或地区的特定许可要求。具体如下:(a)基于目的地的管制i)全面禁运(Comprehensive Sanctions or Embargoes)如出口目的地被列为 EAR 全面禁运国,则向该等国家出口物项,需要提前获得 BIS 的许可。目前,BIS 认定的全面禁运国包括古巴、伊朗、叙利亚。ii)特定类别物项发运到特定目的地的制裁(Sanctions on Selected Catego-ries of Items to Specific Destinations)除上述全面禁运国之外,EAR 还对一些国家实行特定类型物项的禁运。比如,依据联合国安理会武器禁运规定,管控某些特定类别物项的出口、再出口到中非、刚果、厄立特里亚、伊朗、伊拉克、黎巴嫩、利比亚、朝鲜、索马里和苏丹。(b)基于最终用户和最终用途的管制i)基于最终用户的管控政策概述最终用户是指接受并最终使用出口或转出口物项的进口商明确指定的买方或收货人。美国政府为限制某些出口、再出口或将物项转移给特定的受限制实体,制定了一系列的管控清单,包括:限制向第13224号行政命令(特别指定的全球恐怖分子)(SDGT)中指定或根据其指定的人员出口和再出口;限制向第13315号行政命令或根据行政命令指定的人员出口、再出口和转让;限制向指定的外国恐怖主义组织(FTO)出口和再出口;061第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险 限制向未经验证名单所列人员出口、转口和国内转移;当BIS认定某一实体涉嫌参与违反美国国家安全和/或外交政策利益的活动时,有权将其列入EAR项下的实体清单,要求向清单实体出口属于EAR管辖的物项必须获得BIS的出口许可证,并且绝大多数许可证审批要求为“推定拒绝”(Presumption of Denial)。推定拒绝指在没有充分理由的情况下,BIS会默认拒绝来自美国出口商或其他供应商的出口许可证申请;限制将某些特定微处理器及相关“软件”和“技术”的出口、再出口和国内转移并用于“军事最终用途”和“军事最终用户”;对白俄罗斯、缅甸、柬埔寨、中华人民共和国、俄罗斯联邦或委内瑞拉的某些“军事最终用途”或“军事最终用户”的限制;对出口、再出口和国内转移到某些军事情报最终用途或最终用户的限制。ii)基于最终用途的管控政策概述EAR 规定了某些受限制或禁止的最终用途,在未经 BIS 授权的情况下,禁止将EAR管辖的物项出口、再出口、或转移(同一国内)以应用于大规模杀伤性武器(核、导弹、以及化学和生物等)及其运载工具等扩散的最终用途。出口商知道或者有理由知道任何受 EAR 管辖的物项在某些情况下将被用于军事最终用途或被军事最终用户使用,则需相应申请出口许可证。(2)许可证政策(a)管制要求与许可证颁发条件当判断某一个涉及出口、再出口、或国内转移交易是否需要申请许可证时,通062第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险常出口方或转移方需要综合考虑以下四个维度:物项、最终用户、最终用途、最终目的地。并且,以上四个维度中任何一个维度都可能触发许可证要求,但在满足了EAR 中规定的一些前提条件的情况下,存在因符合许可例外制度的规定而无需申请出口许可证即可直接出口的情形。此外,还存在完全不需要出口许可证就可以自由出口的情形。(b)许可例外许可证例外(License Exception)是指对于出口或再出口某些受 EAR 管辖的物项到特定目的地时,原本需要申请出口许可证才能出口,但在符合某些特定条件的情况下,BIS 授权该物项无需许可证即可出口或再出口的制度。具体许可例外的适用条件或要求,可参见 EAR 第 740 部分。(3)违反出口管制的处罚违反 EAR 的规定会受到相应的处罚。EAR 对处罚的规定分为行政处罚(Ad-ministrative Sanctions)、刑事处罚(Criminal Sanctions)和其他处罚(Other Sanctions)。(a)行政处罚i)民事罚金(Civil Monetary Penalties)因 EAR 违规引发的民事罚金是指违规行为可以被处以不超过 ECRA 规定金额的民事罚款。违规者有可能被要求缴纳一定数量的罚款,且该罚款的缴纳可以被认定为其恢复出口资格的前提条件。每次违规的行政罚款可高达300,000 美元,或为交易价值的两倍,以较高者为准。一般而言,行政罚款的最高限额每年都会根据通货膨胀进行调整。ii)拒绝出口特权(Denial of export privileges)BIS 有权通过临时拒绝令或行政处罚的方式剥夺违规主体的出口特权,限制063第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险该主体参与涉及属于 EAR 管辖物项的交易并驳回之前授予的,与该主体相关的许可。iii)吊销参与资格(Exclusion from practice)任何以律师、会计、顾问、货运代理商或其他代理身份参与许可证申请或其他和 BIS 有关事项的个人/实体都有可能被剥夺参与和 BIS 相关事项的资格。(b)刑事责任因违反 ECRA 规定需要追究刑事责任时,最高可判处 20 年监禁,或者为每次违法行为支付最高 100 万美元的罚款,或两者并罚。(4)合规应对建议(a)出口合规体系(ECP)和基本要求建立 ECP 的目的是制定一系列合规程序,旨在帮助各组织按照 EAR 的规定开展出口活动。建立一个有效的 ECP 有助于各主体将出口管制的要求与其业务运营相结合,将违反 EAR 的风险降至最低,并简化出口操作。ECP 可以为企业供应链提供全面的合规保障,还可通过培训和宣传计划,保护企业员工不在无意中违反EAR。建立 ECP 需满足 8 大基本要素:合规承诺、风险评估、出口授权、记录保存、培训、审计、处理出口违规行为并采取纠正措施、建立和维护 ECP。(b)主动披露如果认为可能已经违反了 EAR,或者违反了根据 EAR 发布的任何命令、许可证或授权,BIS 强烈鼓励相关实体向出口执法办公室(OEE)披露。主动披露是决定 OEE 办公室将寻求何种行政处罚(如有)的一个减轻处罚的因素。064第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险2.日本出口管制基本规则综述日本出口管制体系介绍:日本现行的出口管制44体系由一系列法律法规组成。其中,最重要的法律是1949年制定的 外汇及外国贸易法(外国為替及外国貿易法,简称“外汇法”),成为日本出口管制的基本法。此外,出口贸易管理令(輸出貿易管理令,简称“出口令”)和外汇令(外国為替令)等以及相应的各省令规定了具体的出口管制实施细则。根据外汇法第 25 条及 48 条规定,列在出口令或外汇令相关附表的货物或技术被认为可能破坏日本国家安全、国际和平,在满足一定条件下,应在出口该等货物或者转移该等技术之前,向经济产业省申请许可证。日本出口管制是清单管制与全面管制相结合的体系。目前日本出口管制的对象为两类:管制货物及管制技术。(1)清单管制清单管制是指,所有列在出口令附表 1 第 1 类至第 15 类货物、外汇令附表第1类至第15类技术中,符合各省令规定的详细规格的货物或技术在出口之前,均需要向经济产业省申请许可证。(a)货物出口清单管制根据外汇法第 48 条规定,当出口方向特定地区出口特定货物时,需要申请出口许可证。其中,受清单管制的货物为出口令的附表 1 第 1 类至第 15 类货物。主要管控的货物如下:44 本文中的“出口管制”仅指“出口许可制度(即安全保障贸易制度)”。除“出口许可制度”外,还存在“出口认可(承認)制度”,针对的是出口出口贸易管理令附表二的货物、向朝鲜出口特定货物、委托加工等情况,本文中不做说明。065第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险表 2-4项别产品1武器2核能:核燃料材料,核反应堆,人造石墨等3化学武器:军用化学制剂的原材料,与军用化学制剂具有同等毒性的有毒物质及原材料,耐腐蚀的热交换器,阀门,泵,反应堆,储存容器等3-2生物武器:制造军用细菌制剂的原材料,交叉流过滤器,冷冻干燥机,密闭发酵室等4导弹:火箭,可用于火箭或无人机的集成电路,加速度计,振动测试仪等5高科技材料:超导材料,纤维,陶瓷复合材料等6材料加工:数控机床,机器人,测量设备等7电子器件:高压电容器,集成电路,半导体基板,频率分析仪等8电脑:高性能电脑9通讯设备:加密设备,专用通信设备等10感应器和激光相关设备:用于传感器的光纤,光学设备,特殊功能照相机等11航空、航海设备:惯性导航系统,接收卫星导航系统无线电波的设备等12海事相关设备:潜水船、水下机器人等13推进器设备:燃气轮机、人造卫星、无人机等14杂项:粉末状态的金属燃料等15敏感物项:电波或红外线吸收器、水下声学设备等066第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(b)技术出口清单管制根据外汇法第 25 条规定,当出口方向特定地区出口特定技术时,需要申请出口许可证。其中,受清单管制的技术为外汇令的附表第 1 类至第 15 类技术。一般而言,与清单管制货物有关的技术为管制技术,包括受清单管制的货物的设计、制造、使用相关技术或为设计、制造、使用受清单管制的货物而必要的技术(但是,与受清单管制的货物无关的技术也可能受出口管制)。技术出口/转移的形式包括:通过书面、邮件或其他媒介(光盘、USB)等形式转移技术信息,包括设计图纸、参数、手册、样品、样机、使用说明书等;通过技术指导或培训的方式提供工作知识,学术研讨会上的技术支持等形式;外国公司订购的研究设备所呈现的受控技术参数。技术出口包括以下几种情况:从日本向境外国家传输技术。无论日本居民或非日本居民,如果从日本境内向境外传输管制技术,则需要申请许可证。日本境内传输。日本居民在日本境内向特定国家的非日本居民或者向受非日本居民较大影响的特定日本居民(自然人)传输管制技术时,需要申请许可证。将记载或记录有管制技术的特定媒介从日本携带至特定国家(供自己使用的除外),或者通过日本境内的通信系统向特定国家发送含有管制技术的信息。日本境外传输。日本居民在日本境外传输管制技术需要申请许可证。如果该067第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险技术来源于境外,并且技术转让交易在境外完成,原则上无需申请许可证。值得注意的是,日本居民不仅指居住于日本的日本人或者在日本成立的公司,也包括在日本工作的外国人,或者在日本居住超过 6 个月以上的外国人。(2)全面管制日本出口管制下的全面管制是指,对于列入 出口令 附表一第16类的货物和 外汇令附表第 16 类的技术(除受清单管制的货物或技术外,一般都属于受全面管制的货物或技术),如果该等货物和技术的出口基于最终用户或最终用途存在被用于大规模杀伤性武器或常规武器的开发等风险的,未经经济产业省许可不得出口。(a)决定是否适用全面管制的两个要素:最终用户或最终用途 最终用途:如果相关物项或技术可能被用于大规模杀伤性武器或者常规武器的开发等目的,则出口该等物项之前需要申请许可证;最终用户:相关物项或技术的进口方或最终用户拟参与或曾参与了大规模杀伤性武器的开发(可通过查询进口方或最终用户是否被列于“外国实体清单”进行判断),则在出口之前需要申请许可证。除了上述情形外,如果经济产业省单独通知出口方需要申请许可证的,则出口人需要申请许可。(b)全面管制的例外全面管制的对象是指上文所述的清单管制物项或技术之外的绝大多数物项或技术,但是不包括食品、木材等货物。同时,出口方向白名单国家(即,日本就全面管制制度对其实施出口管理优惠措施的 26 个国家)45出口全面管制物项或技术时,不需要申请出口许可证。其中,中国不在白名单国家之列。4526 个国家分别为阿根廷、奥地利、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、澳大利亚、比利时、保加利亚、加拿大、捷克共和国、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、匈牙利、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、新西兰、英国、美国。其中,韩国已于 2019 年 8 月被宣布从白名单国家中删除068第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(3)许可证申请出口商有责任判断其出口的物项或技术是否落入清单管制或全面管制的体系。如果其出口物项或技术受管制,则出口商必须要向经济产业省申请出口许可证后方可出口。一般来说,经济产业省会审查出口物项或技术的最终用途和最终用户的适当性等因素,并最终确定是否批准或否决许可申请。审查期限原则上为经济产业省受理许可申请后的 90 天内。日本出口管制的出口许可证分为两种:个别许可与概括许可。个别许可是指根据每次交易核发的出口许可。概括许可是指 3 年期内,针对多次交易有效的出口许可。其中,概括许可根据不同的出口国或地区、出口货物的性质及其他要素又可分为多种形式。(4)违规罚则如果未申请许可证出口管制物项或转移管制技术,则构成违反外汇法的行为,并会受到相应的处罚。表 2-5处罚类型处罚内容刑事处罚如果违法行为构成刑事处罚,则对于单位犯罪,最高可能被处罚 10 亿日元(当违法行为的标的物价值的 5 倍金额超过 10 亿日元时,处以该价值 5 倍以下的罚金);对于个人犯罪,最高可能被处罚 3000 万日元(当违法行为的标的物价值的 5 倍金额超过 3000 万日元时,处以该价值 5 倍以下的罚金)。个人可能被处以最高 10 年的有期徒刑。行政处罚如果违法行为构成行政处罚,企业可能在最长 3 年内被禁止出口货物或转移技术等,个人可能被禁止就任其他公司的董事等。其他后果除刑事处罚、行政处罚之外,企业信用缺失以及其他的社会制裁。069第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险五、出口管制“黑名单”制度1.出口管制清单类别(1)未经验证清单未经验证清单(Unverified List,UVL)是当 BIS 在做最终用途审核(End-use check)时,因超出美国政府控制的原因无法验证 EAR 管控物项最终用户和最终用途合法性和可靠性时【即无法确认该实体是否“善意”(bona fides)】,BIS便会将该实体列入 UVL(具体规定见 EAR 第 744 节第 15 条)。具体的 UVL 位于EAR 第 744 节第 6 补充附件中。最终用途检查主要包括许可前检查(pre-license check,PLC)和装运后核查(post-shipment verification,PSV)两种,例如,当 BIS 在做许可前核查或装运后验证时,因为无法验证外国实体的真实性,则该外国实体将有可能被列入UVL中。外国实体被列入该清单后,往往会面临如下两种被加强管控的情形,影响原本的正常交易:UVL中的外国实体不再适用EAR项下的许可证例外,即在接收美国出口、再出口或者国内转移的EAR物项时,不再享受通过EAR的许可例外而免于许可证申请的便利措施;出口方在与UVL上的外国实体进行交易时,美国人必须建立电子信息档案(记录保存义务),并且对于不需要出口许可证的物项的交易,须事先向出口方提供一份UVL声明(UVL Statement),增加了程序性要求。(2)实体清单依据EAR相关规定,若某一实体被认为威胁了美国国家安全或外交政策利益等,则 BIS 有权将其列入实体清单(Entity List)。实体清单是美国为维护其国家安全、070第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险外交政策利益等的一个重要手段,也是 BIS 使用最频繁、对国内企业影响较大的出口管制法律工具。若美国人向实体清单所列实体出口(此处出口包括出口、再出口、国内转移)EAR 管辖物项,基本都需要向 BIS 申请出口许可证,即美国人不得在未获得许可证的情况下帮助清单实体获取受 EAR 管辖的物项。若 BIS 将某一主体列入实体清单,则该决定将会通过美国联邦公告(Federal Register)发布,公告中会明确 BIS 会对其设定特定的许可证要求,并且绝大多数许可证审批要求为“推定拒绝”(Presumption of Denial)。推定拒绝指在没有充分理由的情况下,BIS 会默认拒绝相关出口许可证申请。若企业想查询实体清单所列企业,可以直接查询 EAR 第 744 节第 4 补充附件。实体清单内所列实体为外国实体,包括外国政府、企业、研究机构、高校和个人等。其内容一般包括:被列入实体清单的实体的名称、地址、别称、曾用名等相关信息,与该实体对应的出口许可要求、许可审查政策及与该实体相关的联邦公告序号。(3)被拒绝人员清单依据 EAR 的相关规定,拒绝交易清单(Denied Persons List,DPL)所列实体,是被 BIS 剥夺了出口特权(export privilege)的实体。DPL 主要由 BIS 进行管理,BIS 通常会在如下三种情况下向特定主体发布剥夺出口特权的拒绝令(denial order):(1)违反EAR等出口管制法律法规或相关许可、授权或者其他行政命令时,向其发布基于民事违规的行政制裁拒绝令(a denial order used as an“administrative sanction”for a civil violation);(2)在情况紧急时,若不立即阻止违反EAR等出口管制违规行为,将会导致公共利益受损时,向其发布临时拒绝令(a temporary denial order);(3)涉及出口管制法律法规的刑事违规,例如针对 ECRA、IEEPA、军事出口管控时,向其发布基于刑事违规的拒绝令(a denial order based on a criminal conviction)。与这份清单上的实体进行违反拒绝令条款的任何交易都是被禁止的。如果交易071第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险方有理由相信交易相对方是 DPL 上所列实体,则不应该与其进行交易,并可向 BIS的出口执法办公室举报。(4)MEU清单2020 年 12 月 23 日,BIS 通过对 EAR 规则修订,新增设了 MEU 清单,即军事最终用户名单,是美国政府逐步加强对涉军实体的监管,对存在物项转移风险的涉军企业,美国政府通过将涉事企业加入 MEU 清单的方式,进一步加强对所谓军事最终用户和军事最终用途的监管力度。对于 MEU 清单而言,在进行出口(包括出口、再出口或国内转移)活动时,若知晓(knowledge)物项的全部或部分将用于“军事最终用途”或“军事最终用户”,则需要向 BIS 申请相应许可,且许可审批政策为“推定拒绝”,而 MEU 清单所列实体可以更清楚地向企业提示,该交易对象是否为“军事最终用户”或可能涉及“军事最终用途”。相比实体清单企业受限于属于 EAR 物项的获取、MEU 清单企业受限于 EAR 744 部分附件 2 物项的获取等,而重实质则体现在例如军事最终用户和军事用途的认定,法规强调物项的提供主体/用途符合 EAR 744.21 中关于军事最终用户和军事最终用途的定义才会触发申请相应出口许可的要求。另外需指出,MEU 清单是“非穷尽式”清单,最新的 EAR 规则将军事最终用户分为两类:第一类是传统军事组织;第二类是其他军事最终用户,包括其他任何试图支持军事最终用途的个人或实体(如涉及军事活动的政府组织或国有企业)。2.出口管制清单的管理机构(1)ERCERC 全称为 The End-User Review Committee,即最终用户审查委员会,由美国商务部(首席)、国务院、国防部、能源部代表组成,在适当时财政部代表也072第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险是委员会成员之一。ERC 负责就实体清单和 MEU 清单的添加、移出或其他修改作出决定。ERC 的任何成员机构可向委员会主席提交建议,以添加、移出或修改实体清单。ERC 以多数票表决的方式添加实体清单实体,以全票赞同的方式移出实体清单实体或修改实体清单内容。(2)ACEPACEP 全称为 Advisory Committee on Export Policy,即出口政策咨询委员会。ACEP 组成成员中,有投票权的成员包括商务部负责出口事项的副部长,以及来自国务院、国防部、司法部(负责密码出口)、能源部和军控与裁军署的副部长委派代表,没有投票权的成员包括参谋长联席会议的代表和中央情报局防扩散中心的主任。ACEP 的主席职位由商务部负责出口事项的副部长担任。ACEP 也可以邀请其他政府机构或部门的副部长级代表(上述机构或部门除外)参与相关事项的决定,决定结果由多数票作出。(3)EARBEARB全称为Export Administration Review Board,即出口管制审查委员会。EARB 于 1970 年由第 12002 号总统行政令授权设立(后经第 12755 和 13268 号总统行政令修订)。EARB 在出口许可证申请审查中的作用具体见第 12981 号总统行政令内容(后经第 13020、13026 和 13117 号总统行政令修订),以解决关于美国出口许可事宜的不同意见。例如,如果存在两个或多个部门在是否授予一家公司出口许可证问题上存在分歧时,EARB 拥有最终决定权。3.出口管制清单移除的基本程序(1)未经验证清单的移除由于美国并没有掌握UVL实体违反EAR规定的确凿证据,无法验证最终用途,因此 UVL 区别于实体清单和被拒绝人员清单。通常而言,如 UVL 实体能够向 BIS证明其作为 EAR 受控物项的最终用户、收货方或交易中的其他身份的合法性及可073第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险靠性,则被列入清单后可申请移除的概率也较大。清单移出申请中需向 BIS 解释移出的理由,以及提供能够验证最终用途所需的信息,向 BIS 证明其真实性和可靠性。BIS 执 法 机 构 负 责 官 员(Deputy Assistant Secretary for Export Enforce-ment)将对移出申请进行审查,评估申请主体的“善意”情况,并将评估结果书面告知申请人,同时也会在美国联邦公告(Federal Register)上公布。该决定将是 BIS 的最终决定,即不再有行政复议程序。(2)实体清单和MEU清单的移除1)被列入实体申请清单移除实体清单与 MEU 清单的移除程序基本一致,需要最终用户审查委员会(ERC)成员全体一致同意才能做出清单实体的移除或修改的决定。具体程序上,须经 ERC代表提案及投票表决决定,如果代表对第一次投票有异议,则提案需上升到出口政策建议委员会(Advisory Committee on Export Policy,ACEP)进行表决,如果代表仍有异议,则继续上升至出口管制审核委员会(Export Administration Re-view Board,EARB),如果代表还有异议,可以上升至总统。具体而言,ERC的主席在收到请求后会将移除请求转发给ERC的所有其他成员,指示成员审查此类请求并对其进行表决。所有移除或修改实体清单和 MEU 清单的决定都必须经过 ERC 全体成员的一致同意。通常而言,ERC 在考虑移除请求时将考虑以下两方面因素:与美国政府的合作以及将来遵循 EAR 的保证。移除请求应以书面形式详细阐明该企业或个人应从实体清单中移除的详细原因,而不能仅仅简单地提出申请。此类原因应包括与上述两个标准有关的信息。例如,要求移除的企业应积极制定和实施出口合规计划,并向 BIS 提供其将遵循美国出口管制相关法律的保证。另外,要求移除的企业或个人可以考虑主动与美国政府合作,以换取移除。最后,如果某企业或个人认为美国政府将其放在实体清单中是一个错误,其应提出详实的证据证明美国政府将其列入所存在的错误。074第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险4.案例分享(1)未经验证清单的移除从 BIS 公布的公开文件看,近年来确实存在为数不少的中国大陆实体成功被移除 UVL 的实例,包括境内企业、科研机构、高校等实体。例如,2020 年 10 月 9 日,BIS 发布了对 UVL 的修订。此次修订新增 26 个实体,移除 40 个实体,其中包括中国人民大学在内的 16 个中国大陆的实体被移除。由于目前 UVL 新增实体的原因,主要分为最终用途检查无法进行,或者虽然进行了最终用途检查,但是仍然无法确认受检查的实体是否“善意”两类。基于成功移除的案例经验,申请方可以针对实体被列入的原因,向 BIS 进行书面解释说明,并提供有证明效力的证据资料。例如若 BIS 无法通过出口文件上载明的地址找到拟检查的实体,通过电话和邮件无法联系到该实体,申请方可以向其提供更新版的营业执照、审计报告等资料予以解释说明。另外,在证明受控物项的处置情况时,可以通过设备照片、运行记录等资料予以辅助证明。六、知识产权侵权在海外开展投资与经营活动中知识产权风险主要分为两大类,分别是知识产权侵权风险和知识产权实施和交易风险。其中知识产权侵权风险根据知识产权类型可以分为专利与外观设计侵权风险、商标侵权风险、版权侵权风险、商业秘密侵权风险、软件侵权风险、域名侵权风险等,以及综合侵权风险。特别需要说明的是,虽然保护知识产权是世界通行的规则,但知识产权毕竟是有地域属性的,各国/地区的法律法规还是有差异的,因此在讨论海外知识产权风险时,一定要以国际视野来研究各国的具体法律规定和司法实践,避免本国思维的局限。众所周知,知识产权是国内法范畴的权利,其构成要求和取得保护的内容,都可能根据各国的法律法规而有所差异,往往同时又受到各法域的合同法的规制,因为大多数国家都允许约定知识产权权利归属与使用限制,有约定则约定有限,因此在研究知识产权风险的事后,首要的问题就是构建适用法律下的特定法言法语思维模式。075第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险为便于交流,下文中的知识产权类型及定义采用的是世界知识产权组织(WIPO)官网上的内容,基本上可以作为了解各国知识产权法规的指引,在此给大家推荐WIPO Lex 数据库(网址:https:/www.wipo.int/wipolex),这是一个综合性检索工具,可供检索与知识产权有关的国家法律和国际条约。在分析具体问题时,建议进一步咨询当地专业人士的意见。1.知识产权类型综述(1)什么是专利?专利是对创新成果授予的一种专有权利;该创新成果是指提供新的做事方式或对某一问题提出新的技术解决方案的产品或方法。要取得专利,必须向公众公开发明的技术信息。专利是一种地域性权利。一般而言,专有权仅在已按有关国家或地区的法律申请专利并得到授权的国家或地区适用。需要注意的是,在跨境业务角度看,专利法律和条约应该是一个国际法架构,而不是某个国家的专利法而已。WIPO 管理的条约和国家与地区性法律共同构成专利国际法框架。专利相关条约包括:巴黎公约 专利合作条约(PCT)斯特拉斯堡协定 专利法条约布达佩斯条约。WIPO 官网上还公布有面向国家/地区专利局的指南和手册(Guidelines and Manuals of National/Regional Patent Offices),可供了解各国/地区的专利申请和授权形式审查和实质性审查的相关要求。在数据、软件和人工智能相关的领域,以及生物技术和基因相关的领域,认定数据和基因归谁所有是复杂而有争议的问题,因此更是需要了解各国专利保护的立法与司法动态及发展。(2)什么是商标?商标是能够将一种商品或服务与其他商品或服务区别开的标志。商标可以是文字或者文字、字母和数字的组合,也可以由以下构成:图形,符号,商品的形状和076第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险包装等立体特征,声音或香味等不可视标志,或者作为区别特征使用的颜色等。商标注册期限可能不同,但通常为十年。商标保护可以通过支付额外费用无限续展。在国家/地区层面,商标保护可以通过注册取得,在有些国家,商标保护可以实际使用而获得。商标国际注册途径有两种:单独向拟申请保护的每个国家的商标局提出商标申请,也可以利用 WIPO 的马德里体系。世界知识产权组织管理的条约和国家与地区性法律共同构成商标国际法框架。WIPO 管理的商标相关条约包括:巴黎公约马德里协定(商标)马德里议定书尼斯协定维也纳协定商标法新加坡条约商标法条约保护奥林匹克会徽内罗毕条约。同时,下列联合建议反映了国际商标法的趋势和发展:保护驰名商标商标使用许可在互联网上保护商标及标志的其他工业产权,值得企业在开展海外业务时关注。(3)什么是工业品外观设计?在中国,外观设计专利是专利法保护的一种知识产权,中国专利法规定:“外观设计,是指对产品的整体或者局部的形状、图案或者其结合以及色彩与形状、图案的结合所做出的富有美感并适于工业应用的新设计。”外观设计可以是立体特征,如物品的形状或外表,也可以是平面特征,如图案、线条或颜色。在国际上,工业品外观设计既有依据专利法受保护的,也有独立于专利的保护,总之从法律意义上讲,工业品外观设计是指物品的装饰性特征。工业品外观设计权仅保护产品的外观或美观性特征,而专利保护的是为技术问题提供新技术方案的发明。原则上,工业品外观设计权不保护产品的技术或功能性特征。但是,这些特征有可能通过专利来保护。工业品外观设计广泛应用于工业和手工艺产品:从技术和医疗仪器到手表、珠宝等奢侈品;从家庭用具和电器到交通工具和建筑结构;从纺织品到休闲品等等。077第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险工业品外观设计也可用于图形符号、图形用户界面(GUI)和徽记。原则上,注册工业品外观设计或外观设计专利的所有人拥有制止第三方为商业目的制造、销售或进口带有或体现受保护外观设计的复制品,或实质性复制品的权利。工业品外观设计权属于在有限时间内授予的权利。各国的工业品外观设计的保护期并不相同,但总期限至少为 10 年以上。在许多国家,整体保护期被分割为多个连续的可续展期。而外观设计专利权的保护期最长为十年,如果不缴纳年费,则会提前终止。(4)什么是版权?版权(也叫作者权)是用来表述创作者对其文学和艺术作品所享有权利的法律用语。涉及版权的作品有:图书、音乐、绘画、雕塑、电影、计算机程序、数据库、广告、地图和技术制图等。在绝大多数国家,根据 伯尔尼公约,版权保护自动获得,无需登记或其他手续。但很多国家仍然设有对作品进行自愿登记的制度。这种自愿登记制度有助于解决涉及所有权或创作方的争议,并为权利的经济交易、销售、让与和/或转让等提供便利。通常在立法中不会列出受版权保护的完整作品列表,世界各国/地区受版权保护的作品一般包括:小说、诗歌、戏剧、工具书、报纸文章等文学作品;计算机程序、数据库;电影、音乐作品和舞谱;绘画、素描、摄影和雕塑等艺术作品;建筑作品;广告、地图和技术制图。需要注意的是,版权保护只延及表达,而不延及思想、过程、操作方法或数学概念本身。关于“标题”、“标语”或“标志”等是否受版权保护,各国可能保护、也可能不保护,取决于对其是否具有原创性的认定。不同于专利权和商标权可以通过 WIPO 或者各国的专利商标局官网进行检索,WIPO 不提供版权登记体系,也没有可检索的版权数据库。涉及版权的法律和国际条约众多,详细可查阅 WIPO 官网。其中最为重要的是078第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险保护文学和艺术作品的伯尔尼公约 世界知识产权组织版权条约(WCT)世界知识产权组织表演和录音制品条约(WPPT)。其中 WPPT(1996 年)涉及两种受益人的知识产权,特别是在数字环境中的知识产权:(i)表演者(演员、歌唱家、音乐家等);(ii)录音制品制作者(最先将声音录制下来并负有责任的自然人或法人)。各国国内法按照伯尔尼公约建立的限制和例外,可以扩大适用于数字环境下。各国可以设计新的适于数字环境的例外和限制。对于大部分中国企业而言,需要注意到该条约中规定了的表演者享有的精神权利,即要求承认其系表演者的权利,以及反对任何将有损表演者名声的歪曲、篡改或其他修改的权利。避免因为只重视涉及复制权等商业利益相关而忽视精神权益带来的知识产权风险。另外,需要注意到保护期并非以 50 年为限,而是“保护期必须至少为 50 年”。享有和行使本条约所规定的权利无需履行任何手续。(5)什么是商业秘密?商业秘密是关于可以被出售或许可的机密信息的知识产权。一般而言,信息必须具备以下条件才能成为商业秘密:(i)因其秘密性而具有商业价值;(ii)仅为范围有限的人所知悉;以及(iii)信息的合法持有人已采取合理措施予以保密,包括与商业合作伙伴和员工签署保密协议等。他人以违背诚实商业做法的方式,未经授权获取、使用或披露此类秘密信息会被视为不正当的行为并且违反商业秘密保护。需要注意的是,各国关于受保护的商业秘密或受保护的有价值的商业信息的法律机制差异较大且不时有新的司法动向和变化,需要不时跟进。通常情况下,任何为企业提供竞争优势且不被他人知悉的机密商业信息都可以作为商业秘密进行保护。商业秘密既包括如制造工艺、实验研究数据、软件算法等技术信息,也包括如分销方法、供应商及客户名单、广告战略等商业信息。其他可能受商业秘密保护的信息还包括财务信息、配方和食谱以及源代码等。079第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险与专利相反,商业秘密无需注册即可受到保护,也就是说,对商业秘密的保护没有程序上的形式要求。除非他人发现或合法获得了商业秘密并将其向公众披露,否则商业秘密可以无限期地受保护。(6)其他常见的知识产权类型除前述列举的知识产权外,其他常见的知识产权类型还包括地理标志、集成电路布图设计、植物新品种、商号、数据库权、域名等。不同的国际条约对知识产权有不同的分类,如 与贸易有关的知识产权协议(TRIPS协议)中将知识产权的分为:版权及相关权利、商标、地理标志、工业设计、专利、集成电路布图设计、未披露过的信息等;而保护工业产权巴黎公约中列举的工业产权则包括专利、商标、工业品外观设计、实用新型、服务商标、厂商名称、地理标志以及制止不正当竞争。除此之外,各国/地区知识产权制度不同,能够获得保护的知识产权类型也有所不同,如美国的知识产权分类包括专利、版权、商标、集成电路布图设计、商业秘密、工业品外观设计,德国的知识产权分类包括专利、工业品外观设计、商标、版权、地理标志、商业秘密等,日本则包括专利、商标、版权、植物新品种、集成电路布图设计、商业秘密、工业品外观设计。随着科学技术的迅速发展,新型智力成果不断涌现,知识产权保护对象的范围也正不断扩大,数据库权、域名等新知识产权类型正逐步成为当今一些国家所认可的知识产权保护对象。2.知识产权侵权风险知识产权侵权风险是企业在海外开展经营活动较常面临的风险之一。一方面,并非所有知识产权需注册登记才能取得,部分如版权等无需登记即可取得的知识产权较难通过公开途径查询,在出海的过程中,中国企业对目标国家相关知识产权及知识产权权利人的情况并不能非常清楚地掌握,知识产权侵权风险防不胜防;另一方面,知识产权是一项具有地域性的排他权利,地域性意味着除非有国际条约、双边或多边协定的特别规定,否则,知识产权的效力只及于授予或确认其权利的国家,换句话说中国的知识产权仅在中国有效,其在其他国家不一定能受保护。对出海的080第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险中国企业而言,即便企业在中国已经取得了知识产权,该知识产权的效力并不及于目标国家,对相同的知识产权,目标国家可能已经有相应的知识产权权利人,因此如果中国企业在目标国家开展经营活动,中国企业将面临知识产权侵权的风险。知识产权侵权风险根据知识产权类型可以分为专利与外观设计侵权风险、商标侵权风险、版权侵权风险、商业秘密侵权风险、软件侵权风险、域名侵权风险等,以及综合侵权风险。除版权各国均采用自然取得方式之外,大部分的知识产权权利取得是通过各法域的行政审批取得的,例如各国的专利申请、审查与授权,商标申请与注册。也有依据各法域的法律法规的产生的权利,例如商业秘密、有价值的商业信息、数据相关权利等。尊重知识产权是全球化分工与合作的基础,因此在这里对于已经成为常识的内容就不再赘述,本章节内容主要用于描述不常见的侵权行为或者特殊的侵权情形,以便帮助中国企业减少或避免在国外的知识产权侵权风险。(1)一种特殊的专利侵权情形一般而言,专利分为产品专利和方法专利,且专利权是有地域限制的,因为专利法本质上是国内法,具有地域性。在中国,“发明和实用新型专利权被授予后,除专利法有特别规定的以外,任何单位或个人未经专利权人许可,都不得实施其专利,即不得为生产经营目的制造、使用、许诺销售、销售、进口其专利产品,或者使用其专利方法以及使用、许诺销售、销售、进口依照该专利方法直接获得的产品。”特殊侵权行为仅针对“专利新产品”,且是依照专利方法直接获得的产品,即指依照专利方法最初获得的原始产品,即应用该方法的第一步到最后一步所得到的产品,对得到的该产品进一步加工、使之发生变化而获得的产品就不是直接得到的产品。假设 A 公司在中国有一项制造 X 产品的方法专利,但其在中国没有 X 产品的产品专利,那么在中国制造 X 产品的行为可能会侵犯 A 公司的中国专利权,但在中国仅销售 X 产品是不会有侵犯 A公司的专利风险的。081第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险由于中国专利法中并无“治外法权”的相关规定,所以中国企业往往容易忽略其他国家涉及知识产权法领域的“国内法国际化”问题。原则上,一项专利不具有治外法权。但有一些特殊的专利侵权情形,例如美国为了禁止侵权人将未组装的专利产品运往国外组装,美国专利法于 1984 年在第 271 条中增加了(f)款,规定了当专利发明部件由美国实体提供且用于国外组装时构成专利侵权的诉讼理由。又例如美国为了禁止侵权人在国外实施美国方法专利所保护的方法,然后将由该方法所制造的产品进口到美国的行为,美国专利法于 1988 年在第 271 条中增加了(g)款,规定了此种行为仍然可能构成方法专利侵权行为。这些条款实质上将美国专利的保护领域扩大到了其他国家和地区。2018 年 6 月 22 日,美国最高法院对WesternGeco LLC v.ION Geophysical Corp.一案进行了裁定,针对被告 ION 向海外出口关键零部件让其他公司在海外组装成竞品的侵权行为,支持原告 WesternGeco 作为专利权人的海外利润损失 9340万美元的补偿请求。此案历经近 10 年之久,关于涉及的境外利润损失,地区法院一审判赔、联邦巡回上诉法院裁定免责,到最高法院重审认定赔偿境外利润损失。WesterGeco 案主要涉及专利侵权领域两个方面的问题,一是境外的行为是否构成专利侵权,二是境外的利润损失是否属于侵权求偿的范围。随着经济和贸易的全球化发展,工业产品的系统化、集成化程度越来越高,越来越多的最终产品的零部件中都不可避免地会包含外国人拥有的知识产权,从而使得知识产权的国内法效力国际化。最近二十年,欧美国家在专利保护司法实践中突破“国内法”追求域外治权的案例时有发生,企业在跨境业务时需要注意到该等特殊的专利侵权情形的潜在风险。(2)专利产品平行进口的潜在专利侵权风险专利产品是指受专利权保护的产品,也就是说是具有授权专利的某项权利要求所记载的全部技术特征的产品。平行进口是指同一专利权人就同一项发明创造在两个国家获得了专利权,专利权人或专利权被许可人在其中一个国家制造的专利产品082第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险售出后,购买者将其购买的专利产品进口到另一国家。一般而言,会认为平行进口应属于专利权用尽的范畴,即不属于专利侵权行为。但由于各国的贸易保护及其他本国利益考量,关于平行进口是否构成侵权行为,各国的司法实践一直在动态变化,因此过去的案例不一定能作为当下的参考,建议中国企业在海外开展业务时,必须谨慎地研究最新的司法动态,避免踩雷。(3)专利申请尚未授权的侵权风险大部分的国家都设有“发明专利的临时保护”制度,指因发明专利申请初步审查合格自申请日起满十八个月即行公布,为了防止第三人在发明申请公布后至授权前任意实施该发明,因此需要在这段期间内给予发明专利申请一定程度的保护,申请人可以要求那些在发明公布后授权前实施其发明的单位或者个人支付适当的费用。由于发明专利申请公布后,没有进行实质审查,还不能确定将来是否可以获得发明专利权,因此专利法规定的临时保护只允许专利申请人“可以”但不是“有权”要求支付费用,申请人获得的临时保护并不是一项权利,也不具有强制执行的效力。同时只能要求适当的费用用于赔偿,一般以该发明专利申请授权后实施该发明专利的许可费为标准计算使用费。很多人认为既然没有强制执行的效力就可以置之不理,这个观念是不对的。构成故意侵权、或者适用惩罚性赔偿,其后果将是十分严重的。因此,需要特别重视此类看起来只是潜在的风险所带来的问题。(4)许诺销售行为相关的专利侵权“许诺销售专利产品”是指明确表示愿意出售具有权利要求所述技术特征的产品的行为。“许诺销售”是从英文“offering for sale”翻译过来的,其行为包括发布广告、开产品推荐会、参加商业展览活动等,随着电子商务和线上销售的发展,许诺销售行为的认定各国司法实践也在不断发展与变化,083第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险需要特别关注业务所涉及的各个国家和地区的最新动态,特别是很多企业自认为只是“试探性”的一些动作而非商业活动行为,还是有可能会构成侵权行为的。(5)网络上特殊的商标侵权风险通常的商标侵权风险大部分企业是了解并且有足够的防范意识的,因此本节特别说明一下互联网相关的商标使用中要注意避免几种可能的侵权类型:1)电子商务经营商标侵权在电子商务平台销售假冒他人商标的产品的电子商务经营者将构成商标的直接侵权行为。而商务平台的经营者在明知或应知侵权行为存在的情况下,未及时采取必要措施来制止侵权行为,客观上放任、纵容侵权行为发生的,可能构成帮助侵权。2)搜索引擎技术商标侵权 元标签侵权元标签是设置在网站源代码中无形的网页标签,电脑通过读取元标签中的信息,对信息进行识别。网页设计时应避免将他人的商标设置成自己的标签。关键词推广(竞价排名)过程中的侵权关键词推广是行为人通过人工设置,并向搜索引擎服务商购买关键词服务后进行的。在该过程中应避免将他人商标或者商标中的主要字样作为关键词购买,将他人商标或者商标主要字样放在网站链接字样里,甚至是自己的网站页面上,从而构成侵权。App应用程序商标侵权第一种情形是开发商在其开发的App中用和他人商标相同或近似的图标、084第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险文字等;第二种是开发商所开发的App和别人的相似。没有参加相关应用程序的开发,只是提供下载的服务商,为直接侵权人提供帮助的,可能构成间接侵权。域名商标侵权由于域名都是唯一的,因此部分人会将有一定知名度的商标通过域名进行恶意抢注。中国企业在开展海外业务时要注意同时核查域名与商标,避免踩雷。链接商标侵权链接分为内链和外链。外链是普通链接,这种链接是直接链接到其他网站的首页,使用人可以直接、清楚地看到网页间的转换。内链也叫深层链接,当用户点击这个链接时,是绕过该网站的首页直接到达网站具体分页,如果网站分页没有被转网页的显著标识,用户会认为他们仍然停留在原来的网页上,从而造成混淆。在链接商标侵权中,最常见的是内链。3.知识产权实施和交易风险知识产权实施和交易风险往往在出海时,具体而言,知识产权实施风险主要为企业超出协议/许可范围的实施或者对外授予实施许可而导致的知识产权侵权、不正当竞争行为和违反合同约定的风险;知识产权交易风险主要指在跨国并购交易过程中,可能因知识产权问题造成并购目的无法实现或者知识产权交割无法完成;或者由于未能对有关权利义务作出明确约定,导致在并购完成后无法避免的知识产权侵权风险或者履约风险,以及跨国知识产权交易(如知识产权许可等)过程中的协议风险等。(1)协议陷阱中国企业开展海外业务遭遇“协议陷阱”是常见的知识产权风险,例如交易本身的陷阱和不同法域国家的法律法规特殊规定导致的协议陷阱。具体而言,海外项085第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险目标的公司与第三人签订的知识产权协议或技术协议中存在知识产权约定限制或者其他许可终止风险,往往在交易架构设计的时候没有预见到这些潜在问题而使得交易对方并没有事先披露的义务,导致对中国企业而言原来关注的知识产权或技术不能“为我所用”。更糟糕的一种情形是,海外标的公司的技术在实施过程需要依赖于第三方专利且无继受的许可/使用权,这样就必然存在专利侵权风险。不仅使得海外项目难以达成预期的商业目标,而且可能因此使母公司的经营受到影响。此外,对同一事项,不同法域的法律法规规定可能不同,从而导致适用不同国家法律的同一份协议,其后果或效力可能不同。如商业协议中较常出现的与知识产权相关的“禁止反向工程”条款,目前大部分国家已在立法层面肯定了反向工程的合法性,对合同中禁止反向工程条款的效力以及合同一方违反约定进行反向工程是否构成违约或侵权等问题各国的立法和司法实践的认定并不一致,在部分国家,禁止反向工程条款可能被认定为无效,合同一方违反约定进行反向工程可能不会构成违约或侵权。又如商业协议中较常出现的知识产权相关的“陈述与保证”条款,在中国,违反“陈述与保证”条款一般而言意味着违约方将承担违约责任,但是相同的条款如适用英美法,将产生不同的法律效果。在英美法系下陈述与保证是完全不同的概念,两者有不同的救济途径和赔偿方式。在英美法系下,违反“保证”条款的后果包括损害赔偿,而违反“陈述”条款的后果除了损害赔偿之外,还包括解除合同。对出海的中国企业而言,应对相应国家的法律规定进行了解,以防范因法律法规规定的不同导致的协议陷阱。(2)专利许可相关风险根据不同的分类标准,专利许可可以分为不同的类型。按照被许可人取得的实施权的范围,专利许可一般可分为排他许可和普通许可,排他许可是指在一定时间和地域范围内,专利权人只许可一个被许可人实施其专利,专利权人自己能否实施专利,双方可以在协议中进一步约定。普通许可是指在一定时间内,专利权人许可他人实施其专利,同时保留许可第三人实施该专利的权利。根据许可合同的对价是否为被许可人自己专利的实施权,专利许可分为交叉许可和非交叉许可。交叉许可是指两个专利权人互相许可对方实施自己的专利,即许可合同的对价是被许可人自己专利的实施权。非交叉许可的对价不以被许可人自己专利的实施权为限。根据发放专利086第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险许可的人是否为专利权人,专利许可还可分为主许可和分许可。主许可是专利权人与被许可人之间的许可,分许可则是针对主许可而言的,即被许可人依照与专利权人的协议,再许可第三人实施同一专利,一般而言被许可人签订这种分许可合同须得到专利权人的同意,当然是同意的方式可以是单个许可审批或者有权分许可。正常而言,各国都采用专利许可协议有约定从约定,即“约定优先”的原则,所以只要协议写得足够清晰,往往不会有潜在侵权风险。在这里特别指出基于 TRIPS 协议明确各成员有权在其立法中具体规定哪些许可条件或活动可能构成知识产权滥用,并可按照成员国的法律法规,采取适当的措施防止或控制此类活动。知识产权滥用包括以下几种情形,如果许可协议中有相关条款,相关条款的效力可能受到影响。中国企业在海外交易时应当对这些情形予以注意:1)独占性反授条件“独占性反授条件”是指:许可方要求被许可方将其针对被许可技术作出的任何改进所产生的知识产权,以独占的方式,在许可方不作弥补考虑或不附加对等义务的情况下,反授给许可方。2)禁止对知识产权的有效性提出质疑“禁止对知识产权的有效性提出质疑”是指:许可方明知许可合同所涉及的知识产权的有效性受到质疑时,有关双方权利和义务的争议需要根据适用的法律来确定,而且许可合同的条件需要符合该法律的规定,却要求被许可方承诺不对所涉及知识产权的有效性提出质疑。3)强迫一揽子许可“强迫一揽子许可”是指:许可方要求被许可方接受他所不需要的附加技术、将来作出的发明、货物、或者服务,或者限制被许可方采用的技术、货物或服务的来源,以此作为订立许可合同的条件。087第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(3)专利实施的强制许可风险专利保护与反技术垄断一直是此消彼长的两个方面,所以各国的专利法立法宗旨都是既要保护专利权人的利益,同时又要平衡社会公众的利益,也就是说,专利的保护不应该阻碍社会科学技术的进步与发展,因此,各国都有专利实施强制许可的规定。各国规定不尽相同,主要有以下三种类型,虽然属于不常见的情形,但在分析海外权益保护风险时,特别是涉及医药、数据和其他公共利益相关的业务的企业,应该关注到可能遭遇专利实施强制许可所带来的风险。1)公共利益的强制许可在国家出现紧急状态或非常情况时,或为了公共利益的目的,专利局可以给予实施专利的强制许可。2)商业性强制许可自专利权被授予之日起满 3 年后,具备实施条件的单位(即,在资金和技术方面确有实施发明或实用新型的实力和能力)以合理的条件请求发明或者实用新型专利权人许可实施其专利,而未能在合理长的时间内获得这种许可时,专利局根据该单位的申请,可以给予实施该专利的强制许可。3)从属专利的强制许可一项取得专利权的发明创造比在先专利权具有显著经济意义的重大技术进步,其实施又有赖于前一发明的实施时,专利局根据后一专利权人的申请,可以给予实施前一发明的强制许可;同样地,也可以根据前一专利权人的申请,给予后一发明强制许可。(4)因法律法规政策差异导致的知识产权交易风险对于有关智力成果的进出口、交易、销售、知识产权权利获得程序和标准等问题,各个国家和地区的法律、法规和政策层面,往往存在一定差异而且各国的政策变化088第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险即时性很强,一般企业难以及时准确跟进。在跨境并购交易中,各国知识产权法律和政策的差异性可能会在交易架构设计、交易进程和交易交割三个环节中出现足以影响交易实现以及后续对知识产权使用的重大变化。这些重大变化主要表现为:1)授权专利的有效性及权利稳定性风险即使是经某个国家特定主管机关授权的知识产权,其有效性也存在着不确定性。其权利的存在与保护范围,会随权利人、利害关系人的权利主张、主管机关的决定、仲裁或司法机关的裁判行为而出现变化。2)时间和地域性风险知识产权属于国家授权,其存在依赖于一国或一地区的法律规定,且均有保护的年限。某国的知识产权资产在贸易目的国不一定受到法律保护、专利组合中失效专利较多或者有效期限较短、商标权在某些国家和其他国家受保护的类别不一致等都会导致知识产权风险。3)知识产权的权属瑕疵在某些情况下,即使被收购方具有相关知识产权的权利证明和证书,但是由于其实际来源存在瑕疵,该知识产权的权利归属仍然存在争议。而且这样的问题往往是难以事先查证的,例如海外标的项目公司所使用的知识产权,特别是其非法定登记形式的部分,其权利归属于被收购方的雇员或者权利归属于被收购方母公司、关联公司等。还有一种情况就是知识产权为共同所有的。这种共同所有可能是企业之间的共同所有,或其他约定形式存在的共同所有,也可能是根据当地法律属于法定的共同所有的情形,由于其不具有完全处分权,往往会有潜在风险。再次是被收购的知识产权存在权利限制的情形。许可限制是最普遍、最典型的知识产权风险。很多知识产权属于保密信息,并无有效的登记公示制度。加之合同089第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险的相对性,难以全面知悉目标知识产权是否存在权利限制情形。(5)知识产权的市场价值不确定风险尽管会计准则和无形资产评估办法在大多数国家和地区采用的是统一的国际标准,但由于知识产权权利的特殊性,知识产权的价值判断是很难的。专利权本质上是一种排他权,而不是如专有技术或者商业秘密那样直接可以体现在经营活动中的商业应用;而商标权是一种专用权,可以确保任何人都不能在相同近似商品上使用相同近似的商标,除了排他权同时也是一种专用权;版权虽然禁止他人复制你的照片,却不能禁止其他人拍和你的照片非常近似的照片,所以去排他性是有限的。可见不同类型的知识产权,其权益体现差别较大。即使都是专利技术,要辨别哪些知识产权可以激励业绩增长,哪些是毫无价值的,亦非易事。知识产权的市场价值的确定需要围绕并购交易的目的而定,同样是专利,其价值在不同情况下是不一样的,例如在技术引进中,技术的市场价值是最重要的,专利的作用主要在于保护该技术的市场优势地位;而在专利组合收购中,专利的价值可能大大超过技术的市场价值。中国企业的海外经营活动很多时候是通过收购或投资当地企业的方式进行的,对无形资产价值的评估毫无疑问是非常重要的,但如果不能识别出核心知识产权并区分技术价值、市场价值、专利价值之间的差异性,往往导致基于一个看起来合理的知识产权评估报告的价值(IP valuation)和实际的知识产权商业价值判断(IP evaluation)差异很大,最终的结果很可能是花了冤枉钱甚至导致最终在经营上的失败。4.总结以上详细列举了知识产权侵权和知识产权交易和实施中多个方面的风险,需要特别注意到知识产权类型及各自定义和内涵并非局限于一国,要重视国家法架构下的含义,同时要重视国内法国际化的趋势,以及多种类型的知识产权风险问题。进一步地,还需要关注与技术进出口管制、信息安全、数据和隐私保护、商业秘密保090第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险护、反不正当竞争行为等风险叠加的问题。例如对“商业外观”的保护,就综合了商标、产品外观和特性、反不正当竞争等多方面的特征,商业外观包括产品的外形或者形状、产品的包装、在产品或其包装上使用的颜色或者设计、所使用的颜色与其他因素的组合,甚至营销技巧等。如果仅从外观设计专利、商标权、版权等单一维度去分析,可能侵权风险都较低,但综合起来看,侵权风险就较高。因此建议企业在海外经营活动中,以国际化视野看待知识产权法律问题,且以动态关注各国司法实践的方式审视知识产权风险,避免机械僵化的逻辑思维方式。七、间谍、洗钱及其他刑事指控 在美国,间谍和洗钱等刑事指控适用联邦法律,并经常根据美国法典来起诉犯下这类罪行的本国人和外国人。1.经济间谍(1)经济间谍法 1996 年经济间谍法(EEA 或经济间谍法)是第一部明确将窃取商业秘密确定为犯罪的联邦法律。经济间谍法的颁布是为了应对外国政府、机构和代理人盗用美国公司商业秘密的行为。经济间谍法由两项关键条款组成,该两项条款详细规定了有关窃取商业秘密的可起诉罪行。第 1831 条针对的是第一项罪名,即经济间谍罪,它包括为使外国政府、外国机构或外国代理人受益而对商业秘密进行的盗窃或其他盗用行为。值得注意的是,违反第 1831 条的处罚比第二项罪名要重。第 1832 条针对的行为更为宽泛,涉及为用于州际或对外贸易 且 使除所有者以外的任何人获得经济利益的商业秘密盗窃。与第 1831 条相比,违反第 1832 条的处罚要轻得多,其最高刑期为 10 年,个人最高罚金为 50 万美元,组织最高罚金 500 万美元。根据经济间谍法的规定,商业秘密的所有人有采取一切合理的措施以使商091第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险业秘密信息处于秘密状态的法定义务。此外,第 1832 条要求被诉行为具有管辖权关联,即所涉商业秘密和/或产品应被生产用于或存在于州际或对外贸易之中。1)违反经济间谍法的构成要件认定违反经济间谍法需要满足以下要件:被告盗窃,或者未经权利人许可取得、毁灭或者传递信息;被告明知该信息是专有的;该信息事实上为商业秘密;被告意图将该商业秘密转化为权利人之外的他人的经济利益;被告明知会使或者意图使该商业秘密权利人受到损害;以及 该商业秘密和产品有关或被包含于该等产品内,该产品是通过洲际贸易生产或者存放。2)经济间谍的域外管辖权对于发生在美国境外的行为,如果(1)行为人是美国公民或永久居民,或(2)在美国境内实施了促进该犯罪的行为,则经济间谍法明确适用。3)对经济间谍罪的检控首先,根据 经济间谍法 进行检控必须得到美国司法部(DOJ)高级官员的批准。根据第 1832 条对经济间谍罪提起的诉讼既可以针对个人也可以针对组织。对个人而言,违反第 1832 条规定可能会被判处最高 10 年的监禁,单处或并处最高 50 万美元的罚金。对于组织机构,罚金数额可以是不超过 500 万美元或窃取的商业秘密价值的三倍(两者择其金额较大者)包括研究和设计支出以及复制商业秘密的其他费用。092第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险此外,经济间谍法还有一些重要的特点,使其区别于其他联邦法规,其中包括:该法规定对任何因违反经济间谍法而产生的财产或收益进行刑事没收,也规定了民事执行之诉和禁令救济。另,鉴于在诉讼过程中很难针对商业秘密进行保密,经济间谍法要求法院采取必要的行动对商业秘密进行保密。4)刑事责任、诉讼时效及其他注意事项根据经济间谍法提起刑事指控的诉讼时效为 5 年。但是,只要政府能够证明被告是出于法律要求的意图而获取商业秘密,那么即使距离其最初盗用商业秘密已经过多年,仍可以对被告获得商业秘密的行为提起公诉。(2)2016年保护商业秘密法案2016 年,美国国会通过了保护商业秘密法案(DTSA),对经济间谍法进行了补充,其增加了盗用商业秘密的民事案由,而此前公司在商业秘密被盗用时需依赖于州的民事法律或其他独立的联邦案由,以寻求对其商业秘密被盗用的救济和补偿。迄今为止,美国有 49 个州以及哥伦比亚特区、波多黎各和美属维尔京群岛已经参照统一商业秘密法(UTSA)颁布了各自版本的立法,以回应保护商业秘密法案对经济间谍法的修订。重要的是,保护商业秘密法案并未取代现有的有关商业秘密的州法,而是为公司提供了一种额外的选择,使其得以向联邦法院提起盗用商业秘密的诉讼。2.洗钱根据美国法典第 18 编第 1956 条和第 1957 条的规定,洗钱在美国是一种联邦犯罪。究其本质,洗钱涉及在资金具有非法来源时采取一定措施以使其看起来合法。(1)第1956条根据第 1956 条,争议交易可以是:(1)意图促进特定非法活动的进行;(2)093第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险意图脱逃美国的税款或提交虚假纳税申报表;(3)明知交易的全部或者部分目的是隐瞒特定违法活动收益的性质、位置、来源、所有权或者控制权;或(4)有意规避联邦或州法规定的交易报告要求的交易。类似的,第 1956 条将运输或转移资金或货币工具(现金或流通票据或无记名证券)的行为定为犯罪,如其:(1)意图促进实施特定非法活动;或者(2)明知该资金或货币工具代表某一特定非法活动的收益,其传输或运输的全部或部分目的是隐瞒或掩饰该特定非法活动收益的性质、位置、来源、所有权或控制权。(2)第1957条根据第 1957 条,通过美国的银行或其他“金融机构”或外国银行,在明知的情况下参与从特定非法活动中获得财产的金融交易且金额超过 1 万美元的,属于犯罪。第1957条采用了 银行保密法(BSA)赋予“金融机构”的法定定义,即将“金融机构”广义地定义为不仅包括银行,还包括其他广泛的金融从业机构,包括有证券支持的证券经纪公司、保险公司、非银行金融公司和赌场。美国最高法院(“最高法院”)已经明确,联邦反洗钱法适用范围非常广泛,包括运输或藏匿资金的行为,尽管这些行为不一定会产生使资金看起来合法的效果。更具体地说,当行为人知道金融交易中涉及的财产代表着某种形式的非法活动的收益,进行或试图进行该等实际上涉及特定非法活动的收益的金融交易时,其行为已经构成洗钱罪。该法的其他条款则将资金运输和其他形式的洗钱活动定为刑事犯罪。(3)美国法典第1956和1957条规定的洗钱的主观要件洗钱的主观要件在以下两种方式中择一满足即可。其一,被告行为的意图可以是为了促进特定非法活动的进行,也可以是为了从事违反国内税收法典的行为。其二,被告在明知交易旨在隐瞒或掩饰特定非法活动收益的性质、位置、来源、所有权或控制权,或旨在逃避州法或联邦法律规定的交易报告要求的情况下行事。被告也可能因通过参与共谋实施洗钱而违反反洗钱法,前提是要满足共谋的特094第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险定主观要件。换言之,被告必须加入两名或两名以上主体就进行洗钱活动达成共识,并且被告必须具有完成洗钱活动的特定意图。只要行为人朝着完成洗钱的目标做出实质性的行动,该行为人就可能成立洗钱未遂罪。(4)洗钱罪的域外管辖美国有关洗钱的法规包含广泛的域外管辖权。根据第1956条法律规定,对于(1)美国公民在世界任何地方进行的,或(2)非美国公民进行的至少“部分”发生在美国的,金额超过 1 万美元的洗钱行为,美国具有域外管辖权。根据第 1957 条法律规定,只要该交易全部或部分发生在美国境内,则美国对于美国主体(包括美国公民、居民和法人)以及非美国公民在美国境外发生的犯罪行为就具有管辖权。(5)对洗钱罪的检控负责起诉洗钱罪的政府部门是美国司法部和美国检察官办公室。美国司法部有一个名为“洗钱和资产追讨科(MLARS)”的特别部门,专门负责对洗钱罪的检控和相关的没收行动。此外,94个联邦检察官办公室中的任何一个在起诉金融机构前,都应获得洗钱和资产追讨科的批准。此外,根据第 1956(e)条,美国财政部长、国土安全部长、司法部长和邮政署之间有一份内部的、非公开的谅解备忘录,对于对第 1956 条和第 1957 条有调查管辖权的各联邦执法机构的调查责任作出了规定。管辖权一般包括对根本的、特定非法活动进行调查的责任。第 1956(d)条明确规定,其不能取代任何规定了额外的刑事、民事或行政处罚的联邦法律、州法或地方法律。美国许多司法管辖区(包括纽约州和加州)的州法中都有类似的反洗钱规定。(6)刑事责任、诉讼时效和其他注意事项根据第 1956 条和第 1957 条发起的检控只能追究自然人和法人的刑事责任。此外,对于根据第 1956 条和第 1957 条的规定发起检控的每项犯罪行为,最高可095第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险被处罚金 50 万美元,或涉案财物数额的两倍(两者择其金额较大者),同时对于个人,每项犯罪行为最高可被处以 20 年监禁。第 1956 条和第 1957 条项下洗钱罪的诉讼时效为五年。在被判犯有洗钱罪后,政府当局可对涉及或源于洗钱犯罪行为的资产进行刑事和/或民事没收。根据美国法典第 18 编第 982 条,如果一个人被判犯有洗钱罪,与犯罪有关的任何财产(无论是不动产还是个人财产)或源于该犯罪的任何财产,都可能被政府当局没收。类似的,根据美国法典第 18 编第 981 条,即使在无人被判犯有洗钱罪的情形下,也可以对涉及洗钱行为或源于洗钱行为的财产提起民事没收诉讼。由于是民事没收诉讼,政府的举证责任低于其在针对洗钱行为进行的刑事没收诉讼中的举证责任,且政府无需证明被指控实施洗钱行为的人除此资产外没有其他支付能力。(7)银行保密法另一项主要的、现行有效的反洗钱法律是银行保密法(BSA)。反洗钱法最初颁布于 1970 年并经过多次修订,其中最大的一次修订是 2001 年的美国爱国者法案(PATRIOT Act),最近的一次修订是2020 年反洗钱法案(AMLA)。银行保密法由财政部长管理和执行,该法授权财政部长通过法规对法律规定的金融机构以及其他实体提出报告、记录保存和反洗钱的要求。与规定了域外管辖权的第 1956 条和第 1957 条相反,银行保密法并没有规定域外管辖权。然而,该法规定了对货币服务企业(Money Services Busi-ness)的要求,且即使对于在美国并无实体存在的货币服务企业,该等要求仍然适用。银行保密法 规定,如果货币服务企业开展的全部或大部分业务在美国境内,即在美国境内有大量美国客户或资金转移收受方,则其对该货币服务企业有管辖权。(8)2020年反洗钱法案2021 年 1 月 1 日,美国国会颁布了反洗钱法案(AMLA),以禁止洗钱和096第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险恐怖主义融资。反洗钱法案第 6308 条授予美国司法部和美国财政部对在美国有代理账户的外国银行的管辖权。根据反洗钱法案,司法部和财政部可以调取与外国银行的代理账户或其他任何账户有关的任何记录。在该反洗钱法案出台之前,其所享有的传唤权仅限于调取与代理账户相关的记录,但现在扩展到了美国境外的记录。另外,根据第 6308 条,收到请求的外国银行可以向联邦法院寻求救济;但是,获得救济的理由受到法律的限制。例如,如果没有其他理由,任何与外国银行秘密或保密法律的冲突都不足以撤销或修改传票。反洗钱法案还带来了严厉的处罚,如不遵守传票可能会导致无法获得美国银行服务,以及受到罚款、处罚,并且对于不遵守传票的每一天,外国银行都可能受到至高一日 5 万美元的罚款。如果超过 60 天未遵守传票,可能还会有额外的处罚。此外,反洗钱法案还要求美国金融机构终止与未遵守传票的外国银行的关系。如果美国金融机构未能做到这一点,它可能会被处以至高一日 2.5 万美元的罚款。3.欺诈及美国的其他刑事指控为强调并对几种类型的欺诈做出规定,美国国会已经制定了许多具体的法律,这些欺诈的类型包括电信欺诈、邮件欺诈和银行欺诈。重要的是,要触发这些联邦法律并起诉这些行为,欺诈行为或陈述必须与联邦政府有关。为了对欺诈提起诉讼,政府必须证明被告有欺诈的特定意图。多年来,电信欺诈以及邮件欺诈,一直是刑事起诉中引用最频繁、最广泛的法律,涉及的行为包括国际贿赂计划、盗用监管信息以及向投资者隐瞒准确信息等。此外,联邦欺诈法律也经常被援引为盗窃包括商业秘密在内的无形物的适用法律,并为知识产权所有权人根据其他联邦法律(如 反诈骗腐败组织集团犯罪法,RICO)提出民事索赔提供了依据。下文将详细讨论上述欺诈行为中的几种。(1)邮件欺诈和电信欺诈在美国经常被起诉的另外一种刑事犯罪是邮件欺诈,美国法典第 18 编第1341 条和第 1343 条对其作出了规定。097第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险1)邮件欺诈和电信欺诈的构成要件根据第 1341 条规定,邮件欺诈有两个构成要件:(1)已经制定或意图制定欺诈计划(或实施特定的欺诈行为)以及(2)为实施或意图实施该计划(或特定欺诈行为)的目的使用邮件。该邮件欺诈法律适用于为了执行计划或手段放在任一邮局或促成邮寄任何物品的任何人。根据第 1341 条,邮寄必须是为了促进诈骗计划;但是,邮寄不一定是计划的基本要件,只要它与该计划的基本要件有关即可。旨在使受害者产生虚假的安全感,推迟询问或投诉,或使交易不那么可疑的邮寄,或用以获得作为欺诈标的的财产的邮寄,可以满足这一要件。此外,被告并不需要亲自邮寄信件,“促成”信件的邮寄就足够了,因为邮寄信件是被告预期计划的合理的、可预见的后果。另外,第 1341 条禁止在相关部分,通过任何计划或手段进行欺诈,或通过虚假或欺诈的借口、陈述或承诺获取金钱或财产,或以此类方式剥夺他人获得真诚服务的权利。另一种在美国经常被起诉的刑事犯罪是电信欺诈,规定于美国法典第 18编第1343条。电信欺诈法律适用于在州际或对外贸易中为了执行某项计划或诡计,通过有线通信、广播或电视传播或促成他人传播任何文稿的任何人。第 1343 条下电信欺诈的要件与美国法典第 18 编第 1341 条下邮件欺诈的要件几乎一样,但前者要求为促进欺诈计划使用州际电话或电子通信。并且,第1343 条要求在州际或对外贸易中传输,因为州内传输不构成本条的违法行为。州际或对外贸易被定义为与外国的贸易。与邮件欺诈的要件类似,电信通信必须促进欺诈计划;但是,其不必是该计划的基本要件,只要它与该计划的基本要件有关即可。旨在使受害者产生虚假的安全感,推迟询问或投诉,或使交易不那么可疑的有线通信,或用于获取作为欺诈标的的财产的有线通信,可以满足这一要件。此外,被告无需亲自进行通信,促成电信098第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险通信即足够,因为电信通信是被告预期计划的合理的、可预见的结果。与邮件欺诈法规类似,第 1343 条禁止在相关部分,通过任何计划或手段欺诈或通过虚假或欺诈的借口、陈述或承诺获取金钱或财产,或以此类方式剥夺他人获得真诚服务的权利。2)邮件欺诈和电信欺诈的域外管辖权目前,美国巡回法院在邮件欺诈和电信欺诈是否适用域外管辖问题上存在分歧。然而,第二巡回区上诉法院最近在United States v.Napout案,963 F.3d 163,168(第二巡回区上诉法院,2020 年)中对电信欺诈法律的域外管辖权进行了讨论并进行了限制。在 Napout 案中,检察官指控 30 名个人涉嫌与国际足球联合会(FIFA)内长达数十年的国际腐败计划有关,该计划几乎完全发生在美国境外。该案的两名被告因涉及“南美人且几乎完全发生在南美洲”的行为而被判诚信服务电信欺诈罪(honest services wire fraud)。尽管第二巡回区上诉法院认为电信欺诈法律通常不适用于域外,但如果涉嫌欺诈的所有要件都于美国或跨越美国边境时发生,则该法律可能适用。因此,第二巡回区上诉法院认为,使用电信来推进诈骗计划是起诉的重点,因此即使该行为的其余部分发生在域外,政府仍可以依此支撑对被告的定罪。尽管如此,第二巡回区上诉法院认为使用美国电信对于涉嫌犯罪的行为必须是必不可少的,而不仅仅是附带的,以确保不会喧宾夺主。因此,第二巡回区上诉法院维持了被告的定罪,理由是他们使用了美国电信和金融机构,并且其对被指控的贿赂计划至关重要。尽管被告从未涉足美国,但在该修订后的标准下,该等电信手段已经促成了足够必要的关联。3)诉讼时效和其他注意事项对邮件欺诈和电信欺诈计划的诉讼时效一般为五年。但是,如果该计划影响到金融机构,则其诉讼时效将增加至十年。诉讼时效从促进欺诈计划的最后一次明显行为开始起算。099第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险八、政府机构的调查1.政府机构的调查无论是在外国投资还是从事其他业务,都要受到所在国法律的约束。因为发生潜在违法行为而受到有管辖权的政府主管部门的调查是经常发生的事情。这些调查经常会涉及到反腐败、税收、金融等领域。因处理不慎或者不当,都会给投资企业甚至个人带来非常大的法律风险。本节主要介绍有调查权的美国监管机构。2.美国主要的监管机构在美国,许多政府机构都能够启动对国内外主体的金融活动的调查,因此尽管投资者通常只会接触到个别特定的政府机构,但熟悉其他政府机构及其工作仍然是十分重要的。美国监管体系最大的特点之一是,虽然存在许多拥有监管职能的政府机构,仍有一些金融活动难以被归入一个特定的监管体系。但即使有些东西未能被明确地纳入美国的监管,这也并不意味着就能逃避政府监管机构的调查。此外,还有一点值得注意的是,美国监管机构经常与其他国内外的监管机构合作。当有可能违反多个司法管辖区的法律或多个金融监管体系时,相关政府机构可以并且会结合资源以进行更彻底的调查。在美国境内,金融监管机构还将与具有更广泛刑事调查权力的机构合作,例如司法部(DOJ)或联邦调查局(FBI)。在金融和投资领域,调查某事的管辖权通常并不完全属于一个政府机构的管辖范围。在许多情况下,美国的政府机构必须就在特定情况下由哪个政府机构行使管辖权做出复杂而艰难的决定。再者,直到调查顺利进行之前,都有可能无法确定一个最为合适的政府机构。由此导致的麻烦有多种表现方式。第一种情况是,可能很难确定拥有职权的政府机构,因为多个政府机构都会主张其拥有管辖权。而在其他情况下,可能没有一个机构能够明确主张其职权,因为所需要调查的相关行为并不能被归入某一个具体的法定监管体系。对于后者,往往是由与被监管行为最为适合的政府机构接手案件,以期他们能够通过调查找出最适合监管该活动的领域。100第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险至此,向投资者介绍其在投资活动中的某个时间点可能需要与之互动的每一个政府机构或其他监管机构,显得尤为重要。首先是银行监管机构。尽管这些机构通常不会明确管理投资,但由于它们拥有有关公司和个人财务记录的资源,这些机构经常会参与对市场操纵或内幕交易等事件的调查。在诸多美国监管机构中,中国投资者最经常接触到的是美国证券交易委员会、司法部、联邦调查局等机构。证券交易委员会证券交易委员会(SEC)是美国负责金融监管的关键机构之一,也可能是最为知名的金融监管机构。他们主要侧重于防止市场操纵和保护投资者。为了实现这一目标,证券交易委员会制定了广泛的法规,这些法规源于新政时代为防止1929年市场崩盘的类似事件再度发生而通过的法律。作为该工作重点的一部分,美国证券交易委员会拥有广泛调查权和提起民事诉讼以执行其法定制度的能力,以及如前所述的将案件移交至司法部以进行刑事制裁的能力。司法部美国司法部是美国联邦法律的主要执行者。其主要任务是:执行法律并依法维护美国利益;确保公共安全免受国内外威胁;在预防和控制犯罪方面提供联邦领导;为犯有违法行为的人寻求公正的惩罚;为所有美国人提供公平公正的司法行政。为此,司法部在选择将追究哪些案件方面拥有广泛的自由裁量权,并且由于其所面临的案件数量之大,司法部经常必须决定追究哪些案件才能按照他们的意愿塑造法律。虽然如此,司法部和其他执法机构通常会接受证券交易委员会的刑事调查请求。通常在请求援助之前,证券交易委员会已经提供了一些确凿的非法活动证据,以增加司法部成功追究此案的可能性。此外,刑事调查开辟了新的调查途径,从而提高了调查人员实施调查的能101第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险力。美国检察官办公室是美国司法部部长领导的一个机构,是美国的联邦检察官机关。联邦检察官有多种职责和工作重点,他们工作的一部分是当证券交易委员会选择将调查提交给司法部进行刑事指控时作为检察官参与刑事程序。尽管美国检察官办公室最常承担检察官的职责,但他们也可能在美国作为民事诉讼中的当事人时出任其他角色。美国检察官办公室是证券交易委员会调查中最常被引用的合作伙伴。我们可以预期在发起投资调查时,美国检察官办公室可能会监控和/或参与其中。联邦调查局联邦调查局(FBI)是另一个经常与执法机构合作的机构。联邦调查局既是美国政府的执法部门又是情报部门。金融犯罪被美国认为是一个极具破坏性的问题,因为它会侵蚀对金融系统的信任,并有可能损害市场安全。这些问题可能导致市场下跌,最终对一般公共福利产生负面影响。出于这个原因,联邦调查局经常与金融监管机构合作,以威慑未来的市场违规者。除了以上三个机构外,美国还有很多具有调查权的政府以及非政府机构。这些机构主要包括:货币监理署:“根据国家银行法的特许所开设的银行”以及“根据1933年房主信贷法的特许而成立的联邦储蓄协会”的主要监管机构,这使其成为美国最大的金融监管机构之一。对投资者至关重要的是,货币监理署的其中一项执法职责是根据联邦证券和银行法律就违法行为(含违反联邦证券法的行为)启动执法程序的能力,包括民事罚款、停止令、禁令、谴责、中止、禁止、移除、限制和其他补救措施。联邦储备系统:联邦储备系统(“美联储”或“联邦储备银行”)是最著名的金融监管机构之一,它是美国的中央银行。美联储于1913年根据联邦储备法成立,像货币监理署一样,多年来其权力和职责均得到了扩张。美联储将其活动描述为促进美国经济有效运行以及,更普遍而言,促102第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险进公共利益的五项一般职能。虽然美联储对证券和投资者的影响不如货币监理署或与投资相关的特定机构那么直接,但它们对金融系统的广泛影响经常使它们成为调查投资违规行为的参与者。如果银行系统被用于违反投资法规,可以预期银行监管机构将全力配合其他机构进行调查。联邦存款保险公司和国家信用合作社管理局:联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)和国家信用合作社管理局(NCUA)的职责非常相似,只是联邦存款保险公司从事与银行相关的工作,而国家信用合作社管理局则从事与信用合作社相关的工作。这两个机构的主要目的是确保美国银行体系的稳定性和信心,并预防未来发生银行倒闭以及诸如银行挤兑等事情。他们这样做的主要方法之一是为存款提供保险。与美联储一样,虽然联邦存款保险公司和国家信用合作社管理局的权力不像许多其他机构那样与证券直接相关,但金融监管的广泛性使它们参与了许多证券和投资调查,尤其是那些包含金融机构潜在不当行为的调查。商品期货交易委员会:商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)是美国衍生品的主要监管机构。该等衍生品包括期货、掉期和期权。商品期货交易委员会表示,他们的使命是通过健全的监管促进美国衍生品市场的完整性、弹性和活力。商品期货交易委员会内设的执法部会针对以下对象采取执法行动:在商品期货交易委员会注册的个人和公司;在指定境内交易所买卖商品期货和期权时违反相关法律规定的主体;向散户投资者不当推销期货和期权合约或实施庞氏骗局的主体;就商品、期货或掉期使用操纵性或欺骗性计划的主体;以及参与破坏性交易行为的主体。商品期货交易委员会的调查来源众多,这与证券交易委员会非常相似。商品期货交易委员会的执法依据的主要是商品交易法和商品期货交易委员会的法规。正如许多政府机构一样,商品期货交易委员会有权对违反相关法律的个人或公司提起民事和行政诉讼,也可将可能导致刑事诉讼的案件提交给司法部处理。国税局:美国的国税局(IRS)隶属于财政部,主要负责征税。国税局103第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险是与投资监管没有直接关联的美国监管机构之一。但是,它仍然可以对调查过程产生重大影响,重要的是要意识到它可能会在调查过程中被涉及,从而可能导致额外的风险。美国国税局审计个人和公司财务的巨大权力可能是推翻违反市场监管的证据的关键。因此,美国国税局也经常参与调查投资违规行为。美国国税局甚至与美国证券交易委员会设立了一个常设委员会,以便共同对双方均有管辖权的事宜(例如免税债券)进行监管。美国邮政署:美国邮政署可以在调查市场操纵方面发挥关键作用。美国邮政署主要负责递送邮件,但其实际上也是一个执法机构,其任务是保护邮件系统免受违反邮件相关法律的行为的干扰,同时也调查使用邮件系统的违法行为。州际活动是美国大多数联邦商业监管的关键方面之一。简单地说,为了让联邦政府对一项活动采取行动,该活动必须在多个州进行或对多个州产生影响(此处“state”是指美国的州而非国家,尽管外国活动也符合商业监管的条件)。当涉及美国邮政署时,州际活动的风险变得更大。因此,虽然美国邮政署并非证券监管机构,但经常参与调查并拥有强大的执法权力。美国邮政署甚至被美国证券交易委员会列为1998年至2018年与其合作最多的十家机构之一,因此不要忽视作为监管机构的美国邮政署。金融业监管局:金融业监管局(FINRA)是拥有一定监管权力的非政府组织中最重要的一个。金融业监管局是一个自律组织,但它们仍然受到美国证券交易委员会的监督和管理。金融业监管局表示,在他们的行动中,他们制定并执行管理美国所有注册证券经纪公司和注册经纪人的商业道德行为的规则;检查公司是否遵守该等规则;促进市场透明度;以及教育投资者。虽然金融业监管局并非政府机构,但其仍然拥有强大的调查权。金融业监管局可以调查潜在的证券违规行为,并在适当时对公司及其相关人员采取正式纪律处分。金融业监管局的调查可能从各种来源展开,包括自动监控报告、检查结果、向金融业监管局提交的文件、客户投诉、提示、其他监管机构或其他金融业监管局部门的移送材料以及新闻报道。根据相关104第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险政策,金融业监管局的调查是保密的。对投资者而言,金融业监管局尽管不是政府机构,但其显然具有作为监管机构的所有特征,因此也应当被视为一个监管机构。州及地方当局:对于监管机构的调查,州及地方当局也会参与。州及地方当局的范围可以从执法机构(如州调查局)到更具一般性的机构(如芝加哥市或诸如纽约州司法部长下属的金融犯罪局等州证券监管机构)。联邦机构经常与地方当局合作进行调查。此外,州级机构也可以独立调查潜在的证券违规行为,尤其是在纽约等证券制度更为强大的州。美国在留给州和地方当局的权力方面相对独特,中国投资者可能会在尝试处理不同级别政府的不同优先事项时发现一些熟悉的情况。其他国家的监管者:现代调查通常会在调查过程中发现发生在外国司法管辖区的活动。这可能是投资者的本国,也可能只是他们进行商业交易的另一个国家。因此,在考虑美国当局的调查时,调查范围将可能不仅限于美国。美国证券交易委员会在调查中最为常见的合作伙伴包括加拿大和英国的证券监管机构,如安大略证券委员会和英国金融行为监管局。九、多边开发银行调查与制裁46中国企业“走出去”,参与“一带一路”国家项目,很多都是使用多边开发银行资金的。参与这类项目,意味着企业要接受多边开发银行合规标准的考验、授权其对项目中的不当行为采取调查以及制裁。然而,很多中国企业对于多边开发银行的制裁程序并不了解,收到了其调查函也没有重视,甚至由前线业务人员自行处理答复。这样的处理方式,轻则延误了解释说明的黄金时机,重则主动暴露了企业更多合规问题,导致企业在后续应对过程中陷入极为被动的境地。我们将借助最常与中国企业打交道的多边开发银行世行、亚行、非行这三大46 声明:世行、非行、亚行的年报均不提供中文版,且没有专门对中国企业的数据统计,本文中的图表均为金杜律师团队根据原始数据提炼、分析、制作并翻译而成的,享有版权。任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布/发表。105第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险行发布的近三年制裁系统年报47中的数据和图表,分析多边开发银行的执法特点,并结合执法特点,为中国企业妥善化解其制裁风险提供应对建议。多边开发银行的执法特点包括:1.近年来接受投诉及启动调查的数量明显增加,执法活跃通过近三年的年报数据可以看出,多边开发银行受理投诉及启动调查的案件数量增长明显。以世行为例,世行廉政局(Integrity Vice Presidency,INT)2018 财年收到投诉 1426 份,2019 财年收到投诉 2461 份,2020 财年收到投诉 2958 份,2021财年收到投诉数量则激增至 4311 份。对投诉材料进行评估后,INT 启动初步调查的案件数量于近三年来一直稳定在 300400 件。表 2-6:世行 INT 近五年受理的投诉与调查案件统计情况项目20172018201920202021收到的投诉-1426246129584311启动的初步调查179379384429347启动的全面调查5168494640完成的全面调查5270474328认定存在可制裁行为的案件3448363319类似的,亚行反腐和廉政办公室(Office of Anticorruption and Integrity,OAI)于 20192021 年受理的投诉数量也稳定在每年 200 份以上,与 2017 和2018 年的投诉数量相比有较大增长。47 世行的制裁系统年报,包括了廉政局(INT)、暂停和禁止办公室(OSD)和制裁委员会的数据更新。而亚行的制裁系统年报指的是 OAI 发布的年报;非行指的是 PIAC 以及制裁办公室(Sanction Office)发布的年报。106第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险图 2-1:亚行近 5 年受理的投诉及完成的调查案件数量统计0502017年2018年2019年2020年2021年100150200250300350图2:亚行近5年受理的投诉及完成的调查案件数量统计结案的投诉结案的调查13818921926322090571107671新冠疫情爆发后,多边开发银行已经迅速适应了远程办公的方式,利用技术开发出大数据调查、远程审计等远程调查方式,并借助案件所在国的常驻代表及外聘专家开展实地调查,提升调查效率。随着调查效率和技巧的改善,可以预计未来几年多边开发银行的案件数量和执法力度会进一步提升。2.只要项目上使用了多边开发银行的资金,其都具有调查执法的管辖权不少企业误以为仅需要在开展境外业务时关注多边开发银行的合规监管要求,而忽视了多边开发银行对中国境内项目的管辖权。事实上,只要项目上使用了多边开发银行的资金,不论该项目位于中国境内还是境外,多边开发银行都能行使管辖权。这是因为根据其采购规则或指南,多边开发银行会要求其资金支持项目的业主在招标文件和所有项目合同中设置相关条款,以保障其可以对该项目中的投标人、供应商、承包商及其分包商、代理、顾问、服务提供商行使审计权,以检查项目所涉及的所有账户、提交的投标文件和履行合同有关的记录和其他文件48。这就是多48 参见世行的 投资项目贷款的借款人采购规则(Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers)的第3.33条及附录 IV。该规则(英文)的链接:https:/thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/178331533065871195-0290022020/original/ProcurementRegulations.pdf。参见亚行的 采购指南(ADB Procurement Policy Goods,Works,No Consulting and Consulting Services)的第1.14条。该指南(中文)的链接:https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/32811/procurement-guidelines-april-2015-zh.pdf。参见非行的货物和工程采购规则和程序(Rules and Procedures for Procurement of Goods and Works)第 1.14 条、第 1.15 条。该规则(英文)的链接:https:/www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Procurement/Project-related-Procurement/Rules and Procedures for Procurement of Goods and Works (May 2008 Edition Revised July 2012).pdf。107第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险边开发银行对在项目中涉嫌实施不当行为的主体进行调查执法的管辖权基础。从世行公布的 2021 财年制裁系统年报来看,共有 8 个中国企业被世行制裁,其中有 4 个中国企业都是因为参与位于中国境内的世行资助项目时实施了不当行为,因而受到制裁,占比为 50%。这一特点在亚行披露的数据中得到了更为明显的反映。近 5 年来,被亚行制裁的中国企业大多数都是因为参与亚行资助的中国境内项目时实施了不当行为(如图2-2 所示)。例如,在一个由亚行提供了 1 亿美元用于改善白洋淀流域综合生态系统的贷款项目(白洋淀项目)之中,在收到了某中国企业竞标该项目时提交虚假财务报表的信息后,亚行 OAI 经调查认定该企业在其投标过程中伪造证明文件、谎报财务能力,构成欺诈,最终对该企业施加了 3 年的制裁。图 2-2:因违规而被制裁的中国企业(不包括子公司)的亚行项目所在国分布(2017-2019 年)010203040506070中华人民共和国阿富汗美国柬埔寨尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、蒙古国亚美尼亚巴基斯坦孟加拉国尼泊尔蒙古国乌兹别克斯坦3.不仅追究企业责任,还追究个人责任根据多边开发银行的制裁规则,除了对实施不当行为的企业主体进行制裁外,108第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险多边开发银行还注重追究负有责任的企业高管或员工(如投标代表)的个人责任,并对责任人员作出制裁49。世行、非行、亚行的年报中对于个人受到制裁的数据包括:公司的个人代表因为参与到公司所实施的不当行为之中、以及个人因为其个人不当行为单独受到制裁(主要指的是负责选聘或在采购过程中作决策的公职人员50)的两种情况。尽管其并未公开进一步区分性的统计数据,但是,在实践中企业高管或员工被多边开发银行追究个人责任的案例比比皆是。例如,某企业在一个位于尼日利亚的世行项目投标过程中提交了虚假的投标保函,最终该企业因其欺诈行为受到世行的调查和制裁。该企业的执行董事(managing director)也因为在投标文件上签字而受到了为期 4 年的对其个人的制裁51。对于被制裁的企业高管或员工而言,多边开发银行的制裁可能对其个人职业发展造成重大而深远的影响。多边开发银行往往要求被制裁企业惩处对违规行为负有责任的高管或员工,并以此作为判断企业是否开展了有效合规整改,是否可以解除制裁的评价因素之一。所以,被制裁企业很可能对责任高管或员工作出开除、撤职、降级、警告等处分决定。另一方面,被制裁的企业高管或员工将在制裁期限内不得继续参与多边开发银行资助的项目。因此,被制裁企业往往会将责任高管或员工调离其原有的岗位或职务(例如项目经理、标书经理等)。即使该高管或员工离开了被制裁的企业,转而其他未被制裁的企业任职,制裁期限内仍然不能参与多边开发银行资助的项目,职位选择受到很大限制。4.欺诈是多边开发银行执法案例中最常见的指控多边开发银行打击和制裁的不当行为主要包括腐败、欺诈、共谋、胁迫、妨碍49 参见世行的制裁程序第 1 条第 1.01 款(a),“the World Bank has established a regime for the sanctioning of firms and individuals that are found to have engaged in specified forms of fraud and corruption in connection with Bank-Financed Projects”。50 参见世行制裁委员会公布的第 132 号、133 号案例(Sanctions Board Decision No.132 and No.133)。51 参见世行制裁委员会公布的第 122 号案例(Sanctions Board Decision No.122)。109第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险这五种行为。其中,欺诈是多边开发银行执法案例中最常见的指控。图 2-3:多边开发银行打击和制裁的不当行为包括在项目中行贿、受贿,洗钱,非法输送利益,滥用职权谋取不当利益,在项目实施中偷工减料,逃避监管等。腐败行为即故意或试图误导一方从而获得财务上的或其他的利益的作为或不作为,包括通过歪曲事实的手段。欺诈行为即两方或两方以上,为了达成不正当目的或为了不正当地影响他方活动而达成的约定。共谋行为即通过损害或威胁损害任何他方或他方财务的手段从而不正当地影响他方的活动。胁迫行为即为了实质性地阻碍相关调查而故意毁坏、伪造、篡改或掩盖与调查相关的重要证据,或对调查人员作出虚假陈述;和/或通过威胁、骚扰或恐吓他方从而阻止他方提起调查程序或提供与调查相关的信息等。妨碍行为根据世行披露的近五年的执法数据,被指控欺诈的案件占总案件数量的70%,占绝对多数。其次才是腐败和共谋,被指控腐败的案件占总案件数量的 190%,被指控共谋的案件占总案件数量的 20%。图 2-4:世界银行近五年所处理的案件(制裁 和解)所涉及可受制裁行为的种类图5:世行近五年的案件中违规行为类型统计欺诈腐败共谋妨碍胁迫700%9%4 %6!$%8%2w#%4%2%0 17年2018年2019年2020年2021年400000%*包括 OSD 审查的所有案件(制裁案件和 INT 移交的和解案件)(共计 237 个)。同一个案件中可能包括几种可受制裁的行为,每一种行为都分别计算。110第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险亚行和非行公布的执法数据也显示出同样的规律和趋势。2021 年,被指控欺诈的案件占亚行总案件数量的比例高达 82%,占非行总案件数量的 61%。图 2-5:非行、亚行近三年的违规行为类型统计图6:非行、亚行近三年的违规行为类型统计亚洲开发银行近三年案件所涉违规行为的种类对比非洲开发银行近三年案件所涉违规行为的种类对比腐败欺诈共谋利益冲突其他腐败欺诈胁迫共谋妨碍及其他0 19年2020年2021年2019年2020年2021年400%0 0e%9%9%8%6%4%4%4%3rq$#5a%2%3%2%滥用胁迫中国企业尤其应当关注被指控欺诈的风险。2022 年 1 月数据显示,当时共有136 家中国企业在世行的制裁名单中,制裁原因均涉及欺诈。其中,111 个中国企业被指控欺诈,占比约 82%;18 个中国企业被同时指控欺诈和腐败;其余 7 个中国企业被指控同时实施了欺诈和其他不当行为。5.附解除条件的取消资格是最常见采用的制裁措施,且伴随着对企业的合规整改要求在完成调查之后,如果多边开发银行认定对受调查方(Respondent)有足够的证据证明存在可受制裁的不当行为(如欺诈),将给出适当的制裁措施。多边开发银行普遍采用的五种制裁措施包括:(1)申斥函(Reprimand);(2)附条件的免于取消资格(conditional non-debarment);(3)取消资格(Debarment);(4)附解除条件的取消资格(debarment with conditional release);以及(5)赔偿(restitution)。其中,附解除条件的取消资格是多边开发银行最常见采用的制裁措施。而且,111第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险多边开发银行采取上述的第 2 至第 4 种制裁措施都代表着,被制裁主体在一定期限内被取消投标和参与多边开发银行融资项目的资格,且在此期间必须建立有效的合规体系、实施合规整改措施并满足世行合规要求,方可解除制裁。前述的被取消资格的期限即制裁期限。以世行为例。根据世行 2017-2021 财政年制裁数据统计,在共计 300 个制裁案件之中,对于 116 个由世行暂停与取消资格办公室(Office of Suspension and Debarment,OSD,世行的第一级裁判机构)作出制裁裁决的案件,97%的案件的被调查方都被施加了“附解除条件的取消资格”;对于 57 个由制裁委员会(Sanction Board,世行的第二级、也是终级裁判机构52)作出决定的案件,65%的案件中的被调查方都被施加了“附解除条件的取消资格”;对于 127 个经由 INT与企业达成和解的案件,被施加该制裁措施的比例为 58%。十、自愿退市与强制退市1.自愿退市上市公司的维持成本很高,以美国的上市公司为例,年度成本可能需要二三百万美元,并且上市公司的定期披露也会分散管理层的管理精力并将承担随之而来的法律责任。因此,考虑到成本和行政负担或其他可能的因素,有些上市公司会选择自愿退市。退市和私有化是两个近似但又不同的概念,两者的核心都是要终止公司的上市地位并终止信息披露义务,两者的区别在于是否将公众股东的股份收回来(cash out public shareholders)。此外,摘牌和退市是两个概念,摘牌只是其证券不再在交易所挂牌交易,摘牌后仍然是一个公众公司,仍然要继续履行作为公众公司的信息披露义务。公司想要完成退市,必须完成取消注册(deregistration),只有52 世界银行对违规行为的制裁采取两级裁判机制,即在 INT 给出调查结果后,由第一级裁判机构 OSD 进行审核,决定是否采取制裁措施。如对 OSD 拟采取的制裁措施不服,当事人(Respondent)还可以向世界银行的第二级裁判机构制裁委员会(Sanctions Board)申请复核。112第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险取消注册后,其信息披露义务才能终止(或中止)53。2.强制摘牌各证券交易所都要求挂牌的上市公司要满足持续挂牌的条件。如果一家上市公司不能满足持续挂牌条件(在某些情形下存在补正的机会),则该上市公司可能被强制摘牌。(1)纽约证券交易所持续挂牌财务性标准当发生下列情形时,公司股份可能由于不满足纽约证券交易所的持续挂牌标准而被强制摘牌:股东总人数少于400人;除去公司董事、高管及其家属等持有的股份后,其他公众持有的股份总数少于60万股;股东总数少于1200人且近12个月以来该股平均月交易量少于10万股/月;该股连续30个交易日全球总市值及股东总权益低于5000万美元;该股连续30个交易日平均收盘价格低于1美元,且自收到相应通知后未能及时补正。(2)NASDAQ持续挂牌财务性标准纳斯达克是一个多层级证券交易市场,纳斯达克规则(NASDAQ Stock Market LLC Rules)针对三个不同层级的市场分别规定了持续挂牌标准。对于挂牌在纳斯53 要取消注册,需要逐次满足美国证券交易法(Securities Exchange Act of 1934)第 12(b)、12(g)和 15(d)下的条件。当一家公司从交易所摘牌,则满足了第 12(b)的条件;要满足第 12(g)款的条件,需要公司的总资产低于 1000 万美元或在册股东少于 500 人;要满足第 15(d)款的条件,需要公司的在册股东少于 300 人或者股东少于 500 人并且最近三年的总资产均少于 1000 万美元。需要注意的是,第 15(d)款的信息披露义务只能被中止(suspended),不能终止(terminated)。公司退市后仍然需要关注在册的股东人数,如果股东人数超过以上标准,则其信息披露义务将恢复。113第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险达克全球市场(Nasdaq Global Market)及全球精选市场(Nasdaq Global Select Market)的公司而言,需要满足下列三组持续挂牌标准之一:表 2-7标准类别股权标准(Equity Standard)市值标准(Market Value Standard)总资产/总收入标准(Total Assets/Total Revenue Standard)股东及股价要求(1)股东总数不低于 400 人;以及(2)连续 30 个交易日收盘价格不低于 1 美元,或能在特定期间内将该股收盘价格提升至 1 美元以上。最低股东权益1000 万美元/最低总市值/5000 万美元/过去 3 个财年中任意 2 年内年度最低总资产/总收入/都不低于 5000 万美元公众持股最低总数75 万股110 万股110 万股公众持股最低总市值500 万美元1500 万美元1500 万美元做市商最低数量244其次,对于挂牌在纳斯达克资本市场(Nasdaq Capital Market)的公司而言,需要满足下列三组持续挂牌要求之一:114第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险表 2-8标准类别股权标准(Equity Standard)市值标准(Market Value Standard)净利润标准(Net Income Standard)股东、股价、做市商及公众持股要求(1)股东总数不低于 300 人;(2)连续 30 个交易日收盘价格不低于 1 美元,或能在特定期间内将该股收盘价格提升至 1 美元以上;(3)做市商不低于 2 个;以及(4)公众持股最低总数不低于 50 万股且公众持股市值不低于100 万美元。最低股东权益250 万美元/最低总市值/3500 万美元/过去 3 个财年中任意 2 年内年度最低净利润/50 万美元(3)其他持续挂牌标准除以上财务性指标外,当交易所认定公司运营存在下列情形时,公司也可能被交易所强制摘牌:经营存在显著困难时:如发生资产或经营范围显著缩减,破产清算,公司盈利不佳,缺乏持续性运营能力等情形;缺乏流通性:如公司规模小且股权集中,公司股票的SEC登记失效,纽交所认为该股已失去交易价值或是公司对挂牌的所有流通股进行回购(re-demption)、退股(retirement);以及 公司与美国资本市场缺乏足够的联系。115第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险此外,当公司存在特定违规行为时,也可能被交易所强制摘牌,主要包括:违反上市协议;经营有违公共利益;高管董事等特定人士曾经或正在进行违法违规行为;未征集股东代理表决权(proxy solicitation);根据美国证券法,征集代理表决权要求上市公司在股东会召开前,公开向股东提供载有待表决事项的表决权征集声明(proxy statement)以及股东委托书(proxy card);未及时缴纳交易所的应缴纳费用;违反交易所公司治理要求,如未能维持合规的审计委员会(Audit Com-mittee);以及 违反交易所信息披露要求,如未能如实提供法定披露或交易所征询事项,以及未能有效披露财报,或披露不真实、不可靠。(4)外国公司问责法案引入的额外披露要求另外,近来多家中概股公司被美国证监会依据外国公司问责法案列入待退市名单引发了极大的市场关注,并造成了对中概股股价的较大冲击。截至 2022年 5 月 30 日,已有 148 家中概股公司先后被列入了预摘牌名单(其中 128 家已进入确定摘除名单)。外国公司问责法案规定,如果一家证券发行人的年度审计报告是由一家在外国的会计师事务所出具,并且美国上市公司会计监管委员会(PCAOB)因为该外国政府的立场导致其无法对该会计师事务所进行或者无法完全地进行检查或调查,则美国证监会将识别该证券发行人,并列入识别发行人名单(identified issuer list)。被列入识别发行人名单将带来两个后果:额外的披露要求,发行人将被要求披露其不被该外国政府拥有或者控制,并披露审计师的安排和该外国政府在发行人中所持的股份和影响(包括发116第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险行人或者其中国运营实体董事会成员的中国共产党党员身份和公司章程是否提及中国共产党);如果连续三年被列入识别发行人名单,则美国证监会将禁止该发行人的股票在美国证券市场进行交易。以上披露要求是自被列入清单开始的,而被责令退市则有三年的等待期。如果发行人的股票被禁止交易后,可以将审计师更换为可被 PCAOB 检查的审计师,则该发行人的股票可恢复交易;但如果在恢复交易后,再次出现 PCAOB 不能检查的年度,则第二次禁止交易将维持至少 5 年的时间。被纳入识别发行人名单的公司将有 15 个工作日向美国证监会提出抗辩,并提供相关证据。但是,因为中国法律不允许审计师事务所向 PCAOB 提供审计底稿,这一问题在不少公司层面暂时很难解决。在此情况下,存在两个可能的解决路径:一是依赖于双方政府层面的谈判去解决目前的政策冲突;二是更换审计师。我们注意到,百济神州于 2022 年 3 月 25 日发布公告称,已经将审计师从安永中国更换为安永波士顿,因此将符合美国证监会的要求。但不是所有中概股公司都能做到这一点。将主要审计师更换成美国的审计师通常要求公司将管理重心转移到美国才可以。2022 年 4 月 2 日,中国证监会协同相关部门发布了关于加强境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定(征求意见稿),明确了跨境监管合作的方式,不再要求“现场检查应以我国监管机构为主进行,或者依赖我国监管机构的检查结果”。该征求意见稿为解决中美监管法律和政策的冲突并避免中概股在三年后被责令退市提供了可能的解决路径。近期,我们关注到中美之间正在就该问题进行接触和磋商,期待在不久的将来双方可以找到一条解决之路。十一、引渡1.引渡简介美国最高法院将引渡(extradition)程序定义为“一国将在本国领土外、117第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险另一国属地管辖范围内被指控或定罪的个人移交给另一国的行为,该国有权对此人进行审判和处罚并提出引渡的要求。”在国际上,引渡受到国家之间签署的条约的约束。没有批准引渡条约的国家之间不太可能发生引渡。例如,美国只会根据条约批准引渡请求。但是,在某些情况下,也可以在没有引渡条约的情况下移交逃犯。在针对美国境内人员的引渡程序中,被引渡人将享有正当程序权利和宪法保护。其可以提出抗议,并将在美国的法院接受审理。在本章中,我们将重点关注与中国和美国有关的国际引渡。2.引渡条约引渡条约是缔约国政府之间签署的正式的外交文件。该等条约中的条款规定了引渡的程序和要求。美国现已与 100 多个国家签署了引渡条约,中国则与 57 个国家保有引渡条约,其中有 39 个获得了批准。目前,中美之间并无引渡条约。值得注意的是,美国于 2020 年 8 月中止了其与中国香港之间的引渡条约。在于 1997 年回归中华人民共和国之前,香港受美英之间引渡条约的管辖。1996 年 12 月 20 日,美国与中国香港签署了移交逃犯协定(Agreement for the Surrender of Fugitive Offenders),该协定后来得到了中华人民共和国政府的批准。美国在 2020 年 8 月中止了与中国香港的一系列双边条约,其中包括该引渡条约。美国签署的大多数引渡条约都有着类似的条款,其中有四项重要且常见的条款普遍存在于美国签署的引渡条约中。(1)双重犯罪条款引渡条约中的双重犯罪(Dual Criminality)条款规定了可引渡的罪行。这意味着被引渡人必须犯有或被指控犯有根据两国刑法均应受到惩罚的罪行。对于美方而言,该等条款中的刑法包括州法和联邦法律。当请求国未能在引渡请求中确立双重犯罪时,美国可以拒绝该请求。对于极少数没有双重犯罪条款的条约(例如美国和以色列之间的引渡条约),其内容包含了可引渡罪行的清单。118第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(2)政治犯罪例外条款将政治犯罪例外条款(Political Offense Exception Provisions)纳入引渡条约是美国一项由来已久的传统。政治犯罪例外条款禁止出于政治原因的引渡。然而,对于该条款,美国政府通常用语宽泛且对政治犯罪不予定义。这导致了二十世纪七十年代后期和八十年代美英之间的外交危机,当时美国根据政治犯罪例外条款四次拒绝英国的引渡请求。因此,出现了从未经定义的政治犯罪例外条款转变为不可接受的犯罪清单的趋势。最终,法院将成为根据条约决定什么构成政治犯罪的仲裁者。(3)罪名特定原则如果被引渡人被无罪释放或未因其被引渡的罪行而受审,则根据罪名特定原则(Specialty Principle),该被引渡人可以返回其被引渡的国家。简单来说,请求国不得先引渡个人,后在不给予其离开该国的公平机会的情况下,对其就另一项犯罪进行审判。美国签署的所有引渡条约都含有体现罪名特定原则的条款。如指控违反了罪名特定原则,则可能会被驳回,因为该指控未必能通过前置的必要的听证程序,而在该程序中法官会根据适当的条约条款审查指控是否有足够的证据。(4)不深究规则不深究规则(Non-Inquiry Rule)意味着美国法院在考虑引渡请求时不会深究请求国司法系统的情况。美国法院已经一再拒绝评估和监督他国司法系统的完整性。这意味着被引渡人不能以其在请求国可能受到不公正待遇为由提出异议。3.在旅途过程中被引渡引渡可能发生于旅行期间。虽然如前文所述,中美之间没有引渡条约,但这并不意味着在他国的中国公民就不会被引渡。无论何时只要中国公民踏入与美国签有双边引渡条约的国家时,其理论上就将受到引渡请求的约束。当然,若要真正对其进行引渡,逮捕国必须根据前文讨论的引渡原则满足一系列要求。前不久发生的我119第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险国企业高管在加拿大被捕并最终获释就是一个很好的例子。(1)美国签发的逮捕令可能会成为在另一个国家受到逮捕的理由2018 年 12 月 1 日,我国某企业高管在加拿大温哥华国际机场转机至墨西哥途中被捕。加拿大表示,根据加拿大的引渡法,由于该高管被美国起诉,加拿大代表美国逮捕了该高管。最初逮捕的依据是 2018 年 8 月 22 日美国纽约东区联邦地区法院对该高管签发的逮捕令。(2)逮捕之后,逮捕国和请求国面临多个期限要求与任何审判程序一样,引渡程序有着一系列的期限要求。各个国家因其引渡条约的不同,期限要求可能不同。对于加拿大而言,从逮捕之日起,美国或与加拿大有引渡条约的任何其他国家将有 60 天的时间提出引渡要求。加拿大司法部将有另外的 30 天时间来决定是否签发授权书(Authority to Proceed)以启动引渡程序。一旦开始,该程序将移至举行引渡听证会的法院。如果任何一方未能满足该等期限要求,被捕者将被释放。在该高管的案件中,因所有期限要求都已得到满足,引渡程序得以开始。(3)对双重犯罪原则的重新审视美国就规避美国的伊朗制裁法案(Iran Sanctions Act)并实施欺诈行为对该高管提起了诉讼。在 2020 年的引渡听证会上,该高管的律师提出了许多论点和反对意见,其中一些涉及到了双重犯罪(dual criminality)原则。在加拿大,它更常被表述为“double criminality”。律师们辩称,在本案中,引渡请求不符合双重犯罪原则的要求,因为该高管被指控的行为在加拿大并不构成犯罪。美国针对伊朗的制裁法律不属于加拿大法律。律师进一步辩称,所谓的欺诈行为不会在加拿大境内造成任何损失,因此忽略有关与伊朗关系的信息在法律上是不相关的。如果这一原则无法得到满足,则加拿大不应对其进行引渡。然而,不列颠哥伦比亚省最高法院的法官裁定已满足双重犯罪要求,因为法庭认为无论是否存在实际损失,向银行提供虚假陈述即可能构成欺诈。法庭命令继续引渡程序。120第二部分 中国投资者在海外投资经营面临的主要法律问题及具体风险(4)该案的结局经过多年的外交谈判和紧张拉锯,该高管与美国司法部签订了暂缓起诉协议(Deferred Prosecution Agreement,DPA)。美国司法部随后撤销了相关指控并撤回了引渡请求。虽然引渡程序仍然是移交犯罪嫌疑人的首选方式,但它并不是可以达到同样目的的唯一方式。作为引渡的替代方式包括司法互助协定、驱逐出境等法律手段。海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践第三部分122第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践一、国际投资并购及贸易在中国加快构建新发展格局的大背景下,尽管受到了新冠疫情以及国际竞争形势加剧的影响,中国企业仍然在近期保持了较高的对外投资热度。根据中国商务部对外投资和经济合作司的统计,在 2021 年,中国全行业对外直接投资金额达到 9366.9 亿元人民币,同比增长 2.2%(折合 1451.9 亿美元,同比增长 9.2%)54。知己知彼方能百战不殆,对于计划或正在带领企业进行对外投资的决策者而言,了解和学习国际投资并购的方式、交易架构、交易流程以及潜在的风险是非常有必要的。1.国际投资并购的主要方式和跨境并购的交易架构(1)对外直接投资的主要方式中国企业进行对外直接投资(FDI)采取的方式通常包括跨境并购、绿地投资、对外工程承包等。自改革开放以来的很长一段时间,绿地投资一直是中国企业进行对外直接投资的最主要方式。近年来,随着中国企业综合实力提升和对外投资经验的丰富,越来越多的中国企业也选择直接收购外国既有的业务和资产,使跨境并购的对外投资方式逐渐成为主流。1)跨境并购跨境并购是企业对外直接投资最主要方式之一,是指一国企业通过取得另一国企业的全部或部分资产或股份,从而对另一国企业的产权及其经营管理实施部分或完全控制的行为。跨境并购可以通过股权并购、资产并购或者合并等方式进行。通过跨境并购,投资者可以快速取得现成的生产要素(厂房、设备、知识产权、雇员等),并在最短的周期内实现其商业目标,且在并购完成后,投资主体可以直接接管目标企业在当地现成的管理模式和管理人员,降低了陌生商业环境带来的磨合成本。另外,与新建投资的方式相比,通过并购现有的生产要素,投资者可以取代被收购企业市场份额而不扩大整体的市场供给,避免加剧市场竞争。与此同时,跨境54 http:/2022 年 5 月 22 日。123第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践并购也有一些固有的缺点,包括:(i)由于国际会计准则差异、信息不对称等问题,在并购交易中评估目标企业价值的难度较大;(ii)并购行为会导致东道国的业务或者品牌的控制权变更,容易引起东道国政府的监管和限制;及(iii)目标企业的现状是固定的,不一定能够完美契合投资方的需求,且目标企业现有的商业、劳动合同等也会约束和限制投资方的经营管理计划。2)绿地投资绿地投资,又称绿地新建投资或创建投资,是指跨国公司等投资主体在东道国境内依照东道国法律设立部分或全部资产所有权属于外国投资者所有的企业的行为。绿地投资可以采取两种形式:一是建立境外独资企业,如境外分公司,境外子公司和境外避税地公司等;二是建立境外合资企业,其形式有股权式合资企业和契约式合资企业等。近期较为典型的中国企业海外绿地投资案例有 2018 年宁德时代在德国图灵根州投资 2.4 亿欧元建立锂电池生产工厂和智能制造技术研发中心。绿地投资的主要优势为:(i)在创建当地业务的过程中,投资者可以独立进行项目策划,在最大程度上掌握经营的自主权;(ii)由于绿地投资并不涉及对东道国的业务或品牌的收购,且能为东道国增加就业机会和税收,面临的政治风险和监管审批风险相对较小。在世界各国愈加收紧外国投资审查力度的大背景下,绿地投资的这一优势值得重视;及(iii)在建立当地业务的过程中,投资者可以树立品牌形象,提升自身的国际知名度以及影响力。绿地投资的缺点主要表现为:前期准备工作复杂且建设周期较长,从头开始建立管理团队和业务模型以适应东道国的商业和法律环境可能会面临较大的阻碍和未知风险。3)对外工程承包对外工程承包是指境内企业承包境外建设工程项目的活动,通常表现为以参加招标、议标等方式承揽境外建设工程。对于中国企业而言,最为常见的工程承包领域有交通运输、石油化工、电力工程、通信工程等。例如在 2021 年,中国企业参与的重点项目就包括:110 亿澳元的澳大利亚墨尔本东北干线项目(约合 78 亿美124第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践元),50 亿美元的塞尔维亚首都贝尔格莱德地铁项目,30.2 亿美元的尼日利亚东线铁路修复改造项目等。工程承包项目的主要优点是:对前期资本投入的要求较低,且工程承包按照项目进度收到对价,风险较为可控。工程承包项目的缺点主要包括:境外工程承包多采用招标的形式,容易陷入价格战而导致最终的利润有限。此外,境外业主可能会对工程项目设置复杂的条件和要求,如未能达标将导致严苛的处罚措施。参与对外投资并购的主体应综合考虑自身的企业性质、投资需求、东道国的投资环境等因素,选择符合自身商业环境的对外投资方式。下文将仅对跨境并购这一最为常见的对外投资方式展开进一步的介绍。(2)跨境并购的交易架构跨境并购的交易架构可以大致分为股权收购、资产收购和合并三种模式。具体而言,不同交易架构的特点如下:1)股权收购股权收购是指买方通过购买目标公司的股权完成对目标公司控制权的收购。收购完成后,买方替代卖方成为目标公司的股东。由于不涉及资产所有权的变更以及员工的迁移,如果目标公司的股权结构较为简单,股权收购的方式通常会更为直接和简便。此外,股权收购并不会导致权益主体的变更,买方可以更为容易地通过控股间接获得目标公司在相关商业合同、许可证和执照项下的权益,而无需取得相关方的同意。需要注意的是,由于在股权收购后买方会成为目标公司的股东,需要在其持股比例范围内对目标公司的所有债务承担责任,可能面临未知或未披露负债的风险较高。此外,如果目标公司的股权结构较为复杂,交易可能会受到目标公司小股东的阻挠,从而导致交易无法顺利完成,或是投资方无法取得预期的持股比例。125第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践2)资产收购在资产收购中,买方仅收购目标公司的特定资产,交易完成后买方获得标的资产的所有权,而卖方依然是目标企业的所有者。与股权收购相比,买方在资产收购中享有较大的灵活性,可以自由限定其希望购买的资产和承担的债务范围以更好地契合买方的商业需求,还能节省不必要的尽职调查成本。同时,买方在资产收购后无需接手整个公司,可以规避承担目标公司潜在的或是未披露债务的风险。资产收购的主要缺点是资产的识别和区分存在较大难度,容易遗漏重要的资产,且资产的分拆可能导致价值的减损。由于资产的转让需要履行相应的登记手续和对第三人义务,还会带来额外的时间和费用成本。另外,资产转让会涉及流转税、契税等额外税项,总体的税务成本通常会比股权收购更高。3)合并合并是指买方和目标公司在交易完成后成为一家公司(可以是并入现有公司或是新设一家公司)、并由该公司继承买方和目标公司的所有资产、负债和权利义务的交易模式。根据被吸收合并的主体不同,合并可以进一步被区分为正向合并、反向合并、正向子公司合并以及反向子公司合并四种不同的模式。在采用合并架构的交易中,买方通常可以在满足法律规定的一定持股比例后“挤出”其余股东,达成对目标公司股权的 100%收购。因此,合并多用于目标公司股东人数较多的交易,尤其是私有化交易中。以开曼公司法为例,只要获得目标公司出席股东大会股东所代表的股份 2/3 以上支持,合并即可通过,非买方股东会以现金收购方式被“挤出”;如果买方团体在合并进行前,拥有了目标公司 90%以上的投票权股份,交易甚至不需要经过股东大会的批准即可完成简式合并。2.跨境并购的交易流程跨境并购的交易流程可以被分类两大类,即,双边谈判流程以及竞标流程。126第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践(1)双边谈判的交易流程1)初步磋商阶段在项目初期,买卖双方通常需要一段时间的磋商来拟定交易标的范围、交易价格、项目时间表等商业安排。在磋商期间,如果涉及到保密信息的披露和提供,卖方应在提供该等保密信息前与买方签署一份保密协议(Non-Disclosure Agree-ment,简称 NDA),以防止保密信息的泄露。在部分买方较为强势的交易中,买方还会可能促使卖方与其签署一份排他协议(Exclusivity Agreement)。排他协议的目的是限制卖方在一定期限内与买方进行独家谈判,防止卖方向多方询价,利用买方之间的信息不对称抬高价格。在双方就项目的商业安排达成初步共识后,通过一份意向书(Letter of In-tent)或者条款清单(Term Sheet)将双方同意的条款以书面的形式固定下来有利于避免后续争议的发生。需要注意的是,对于重大交易或者涉及到上市公司的交易,双方聘请的律师需要提前入场,帮助交易双方确定签署意向书(Letter of Intent)或者条款清单(Term Sheet)的影响和内容。2)尽职调查阶段在双方就交易基本框架达成合意之后,双方聘请的外部顾问团队便会正式启动尽职调查以及交易文件的起草和谈判工作。因为尽职调查的过程耗时较长,且会一直持续进行直至签约甚至交割,所以尽职调查经常会与交易文件的准备和谈判同时开展。在双边谈判的交易流程中,尽职调查通常是由买方主导的(与之相对的是在竞标交易流程中,卖方对尽职调查主导力会更大)。根据并购目标的复杂程度以及买方对并购目标的了解程度不同,买方可能会从法律、财务、技术和业务等多个方面对交易标的开展尽职调查。在这些不同的尽职调查类型中,法律尽职调查通常是必不可少的。法律尽职调查可以帮助买方了解并购目标的基本情况和向买方提示并购目标存在的法律风险,为买方分析并购目标的价值、谈判交易文件条款和研究法律127第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践风险的解决方案提供依据和基础。除了依赖于卖方提供的资料和确认以外,在一个全面的尽职调查中,买方及其顾问还需要通过其他手段核实和交叉验证资料中内容的真实性。取决于项目的时间安排以及卖方的配合程度,买方可以采取的尽职调查方式还包括对目标公司进行实地考察、访谈目标公司管理层和员工、通过公开渠道核验相关登记信息等。3)交易文件的谈判和签署在尽职调查的同时,交易双方会起草交易文件并对其进行修改和谈判。对于一项跨境并购交易而言,最核心的交易文件有且仅有一份并购协议(及其附表和附件)。交易各方会在并购协议中对交易价格、支付方式、陈述与保证、承诺事项等核心商业条款进行详细的约定,而交易中涉及的其他商业安排会体现在并购协议的附属协议中。在交易方对并购协议和附属协议的条款达成一致并定稿后,各方代表就会对并购协议和相关附属协议进行签署。并购协议的签署是整个并购流程中的标志性事件,意味着相关协议中的所有交易条款正式对各方产生法律约束力。在签约后,各方后续需要采取的行动、承担的义务和享有的权利都应严格按照相关协议的约定履行。4)交割前的过渡期因为跨境并购交易涉及的政府审批、第三方同意、融资安排、交易方内部审批等问题需要在签约后一定时间内才能陆续得到解决,所以交易文件的签署与交易的交割通常不会在同一天发生。在交易文件签署后到交易真正交割之间的过渡期内,卖方依然是目标资产的所有人,而各方应努力达成协议约定的各项交割前提条件,共同推动交易的顺利交割。由于在过渡期内目标资产的情况在时刻发生变化,且各方能否最终取得交易完成所需的政府审批和第三方同意存在不确定性,交易方应在交易文件谈判时就留意在并购协议中约定的与退出交易相关的条款,例如分手费条款、重大不利影响条款、违约条款等,以确保自身能在交易进程偏离预定轨道时能够及时止损。128第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践5)交割在并购协议约定的各项交割前提条件得到满足后,交割就会正式发生。在通常情况下,买方应在交割时向卖方支付交易对价,同时卖方将交易标的所有权转移给买方。随着交易标的权属的转移,交割意味着交易标的风险正式由卖方转移给了买方,相关的会计账务处理也应以交割日为界限在买卖双方之间进行分割。以上为通常交易中的情况,需要注意的是,由于一些交易标的(如不动产或股权)在法律意义上的所有权转移时间是相关政府部门登记或者批准之日,交割日在时间上不一定会严格与法律意义上的所有权转移日期完全一致。此外,出于特定商业考量,部分交易中各方也可能约定全部或部分交易对价在交割前先行支付,或者是在交割后的一定期限内支付。在交割时,各方应向对方交付一系列的交割交付物(Closing Deliverables),以实现和证明交割价款的支付以及所有权的转移。对于卖方而言,这些交割文件通常包括卖方对各个附属交易文件的签字页、与交易标的相关的财产和权利凭证、卖方管理人员的辞职信、关于交割前提条件得到满足的声明等。对于买方而言,交割文件通常包括买方对附属交易文件的签字页以及付款相关的证明文件等。6)交割后交割之后,买方会正式接管交易标的并着手整合目标公司或资产的业务运营和管理。尽管在交割时交易标的的控制权以及运营风险已经转移给了买方,但交割并不代表着交易进程的完全结束。如果交易文件中约定有相关交割后承诺事项,则卖方需要按照约定配合和帮助买方运营和整合资产,例如协助买方申请必要的运营牌照、完成未能在交割前完成的登记事项等。另外,许多跨境交易中会设计如交割后账目调整(Closing Accounts)、或有对价(Earn-out)等价格调整机制。在交割经过一段期间后,买卖双方需要根据并购标的的实际运营情况以及会计账目的变动情况对原先已支付的交易价款进行调整。此外,如果在交易过程中一方有违约或是虚假陈述的行为,根据并购协议中的赔偿条款,受损失的一方可以在交割后的一定期间内按照并购协议的约定要求违约129第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践方赔偿损失。(2)竞标的交易流程与双边谈判流程相比,竞标流程通常是由卖方主导的。在竞标流程中,卖方会在前期做好初步准备后再邀请潜在买方进行报价。采用竞标流程的卖方大多会在经过至少两轮竞标后选定一家至两家买方开展进一步的双边谈判。1)卖方的前期准备和材料分发在前期准备的过程中,卖方需要聘请财务顾问负责准备项目竞标的相关材料以及协助搜寻、接洽和评估潜在的买方。项目竞标的材料通常包括:(i)介绍拟出售公司最基本的行业、业务及财务信息的项目简介(Teaser),但项目简介中不会有拟出售公司的真实身份信息;(ii)拟出售公司的信息备忘录(Con-fidential Information Memorandum),该文件是对拟出售公司信息和业务的更为深入的介绍;以及(iii)规制竞标流程的方式、内容和时间安排等事项的竞标流程函(Bid Process Letter)等。在部分竞标项目中,除了竞标材料的准备以外,卖方还需要聘请法律顾问和财务顾问针对拟出售公司分别开展法律尽职调查和财务尽职调查,并相应准备卖方尽职调查报告、财务模型等信息供潜在的买方参考。在正式竞标流程开始前,卖方顾问会向数个其认为合适的潜在买家发出项目简介(Teaser)。在潜在买家表示了初步兴趣后,卖方顾问会要求该等买家与其签署保密协议,以确保后续交易信息不被随意泄露。在签署了保密协议后,卖方顾问会披露目标公司和卖方的真实身份信息,并向买家发送竞标流程函和信息备忘录,并要求买家在一定时间内提供非约束力的报价。2)第一阶段非约束力报价第一阶段的非约束力报价有可能是一轮或几轮。流程函通常会要求买家在一定时间节点前提交第一轮非约束性报价函,并且要求投标人在报价函中包含投标人身130第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践份、估值和估值的方法与依据、对价支付方式、资金来源等内容。在卖方接收到第一轮的非约束性报价后,卖方与财务顾问通常需要花费 1-2 周的时间来评估收到的报价。卖家会通过这些非约束性报价来评估拟出售资产的受追捧程度和大概的估值范围,并决定后续流程。3)第二阶段约束力报价在卖方评估完第一阶段收集的非约束性报价函之后,会邀请少数的投标者进入第二阶段。在这个阶段,卖方通常会提供关于目标资产的更多信息,包括管理层演示或访谈的安排、开放尽职调查的数据库、安排现场考察和尽调、交易文件的草稿等,部分交易中还会在此时提供卖方准备的尽职调查报告和卖方财务顾问准备的财务模型,以帮助投标者缩短其尽调时间和提供更优的报价。第二阶段的竞标流程函会要求买家在数个星期内完成其尽调流程(尽调期间的长短与项目的复杂程度和交易的情境相关,无一定之规)。在这一阶段结束时,买方将需要提供有约束力的报价函,并附带对交易文件的修改意见(或重要问题清单)。报价函会针对性地回复第二阶段的竞标流程函的问题并提供相关信息及文件。约束性报价函的内容与第一轮非约束性报价函的大体内容类似,但更为具体和确定,比如要求投标者确认已完成主要尽调工作或不需要继续进行尽调、已取得所有内部所需的审批、交易资金的安排已经落实等。虽然投标者提交的是有约束力的报价函,但并不意味着已经到了马上签约的程度。通常而言,从提交约束性报价函到签署正式的交易文件还有一段路要走,很多谈判都发生在这个阶段。卖家一般在评估收到的约束性报价函后会选择一家或少数的几家进行最后的谈判,尤其是对价格和交易文件的谈判。另外,在这一阶段,在某些交易中,卖方也有可能会撮合两家或数家投标者结成联合体进行投标。发生这种情形的原因是多样的,可能是资产缺乏市场吸引力,或者是目标资产有多元化的业务,对不同的买家有不同的吸引力,或者是目标资产体量太大,单一投标者很难独自吃下等。131第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践4)双边谈判以及签署和交割经过评估和挑选,卖方会从最后一轮的报价中选定 1-2 家买方继续进行谈判,后续的流程与上文介绍的双边谈判交易流程并无实质性的差别。3.国际投资并购的主要风险及应对建议影响一项国际投资并购交易能否最终顺利完成的因素有非常多,除了交易各方要在商业安排上达成一致以外,国际投资并购交易中的一些固有的风险点也是交易各方需要提前考虑的:(1)监管审批风险近年来,新冠疫情以及国际政治经济形势复杂化的大背景下,世界各主要经济体都收紧了对外来投资和并购交易的监管,使得监管审批在交易中的重要性愈加突出。一项跨境并购交易通常需要完成的监管审批类型有:1)国家安全审查这是一个国家或地区为了防止其国家安全受到危害,针对外国资本(尤其是受到外国政府直接或者间接控制的资本)的投资或并购行为设置的一项监督和管理制度。如果并购标的涉及敏感行业(如军工、高科技、能源、电信、其他基础设施等产业)或涉及数据安全,或外资将在并购完成后掌握标的企业的控制权,则很有可能会受到东道国的国家安全审查限制。世界各主要经济体都设置有专门机构负责国家安全审查,常见的国家安全审查机构有美国的外国投资委员会(CFIUS)、澳大利亚的外国投资审查委员会(FIRB)等。2)反垄断审查为了维护市场秩序、防止不正当竞争和保护消费者的利益,各国基本都制定有成体系的反垄断法律来约束和管制市场主体的不正当竞争行为。并购交易完成后,由于买方可以整合标的企业的资源优势加强其市场支配地位,这样的行为达到一定132第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践的规模后便会降低市场整体的竞争水平,并最终损害消费者的利益。因此,针对并购行为的反垄断审查是各国反垄断法律体系中的重要门类之一。各国的反垄断法通常会对交易的标的金额以及交易参与方的体量划定一定的金额门槛,如果超过了该门槛,那么并购交易就需要向特定的反垄断部门进行申报。3)行业审批若目标公司所在行业属于有特殊准入条件的行业,在并购交易完成后,股东的变更可能会引起运营牌照的更换、外资持股比例的审查等问题。这些有特殊准入条件的行业通常由特定的政府机构专门管理,往往对经济和民生的有重大影响,包括但不限于银行、保险、通信、能源、重大基础设施等。在任何一项跨境并购交易的开始,除了商业方面的安排外,中国投资者需要审慎考虑交易可能涉及的监管审批事项。企业应尽早聘请具有丰富经验的顾问团队协助公司进行监管审批方面的分析和评估,为交易的顺利推进保驾护航。(2)交易融资风险在买方并不掌握充足现金的情况下,交易各方需要保证买方最晚应在交割前通过融资或其他手段获得足以支付交易对价的资金。当中国投资者作为买方时,需要尽早规划可靠的融资渠道,同时应关注交易文件中关于融资风险分配的条款,尤其注意在融资失败时是否需要向卖方支付分手费,如需要,其金额是否符合市场惯例;当中国投资者作为交易的卖方时,应尽量促使买方在签约前就已经给出有关资金来源的保证,而不建议先行签约,仅将融资的成功作为交割的前提条件。因为融资的成功与否通常具有较大的不确定性,将该事项的解决时间点提前有助于提高交易成功的概率,在最大程度上避免交易机会的流失。(3)第三方权利一项跨境交易的完成可能会影响第三方的利益,这些第三方既包括特定国家或地区的政府监管机构(相关风险已在前文介绍),也包括目标公司的小股东、商业133第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践伙伴、债权人等。具体而言:目标公司的小股东可能根据股东之间达成的股东协议或是公司章程享有优先购买权或是交易的同意权,如果小股东对交易条件不满意,可能会行使相关权利阻碍交易的完成;同时,就算交易通过“挤出”等法律规定的特殊渠道绕开了小股东的同意,某些国家或地区的公司法也可能赋予了小股东对交易价格公允性的评估权,增加投资方完成交易的成本;目标公司的商业伙伴可以在其与目标公司签署的合同中约定其在目标公司被收购或是控制权发生变更的情况下有权解除合同或是享有对目标公司股权的优先购买权。投资方及其顾问在进行尽职调查时应重点关注目标公司的重大商业合同,包括但不限于销售合同、供应合同、租赁合同、知识产权许可协议等;如果目标公司曾经有过借贷行为,投资人需要重点审阅目标公司与债权人签署的贷款相关文件,通常该等协议中都会有关于公司所有权变更的限制性条款,包括但不限于发生并购交易时需要通知债权人、债权人有权加速贷款期限或是债权人享有对并购交易的同意权等。(4)其他风险及总结除了上述风险以外,跨境并购投资交易会牵涉资本的国际流动以及不同的商业和政治环境,还可能面临种种其他的风险,例如汇率波动风险、政治风险、诉讼风险、其他买方竞价风险等。诚然,这些风险有时候很难被交易方提前预知,但并不代表交易方是完全被动的。一方面,交易方应提前做好准备,在谈判时就充分考虑和设计应对各种风险的方案,并在交易文件条款中将相关风险在买卖双方之间作出合理的分配;另一方面,在交易风险真正发生时,交易方不应惊慌失措,而是应该立刻与聘请的外部顾问分析商讨对策,同时积极与交易对手保持沟通,共同寻找问题的解决办法。此外,必要时投资方还可以考虑购买交易保险,例如政治保险、陈述与保证保险等,进一步将项目的潜在风险分摊出去。134第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践二、国际基础设施、工程建设合同1.中国企业参与海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目面临的常见风险通常而言,海外基础设施投资项目分为前期开发、投融资、建设、运营等不同阶段,国际工程项目则涉及海外基础设施投资项目“投建营”全生命周期中的建设期。面对不同东道国迥异的投资环境、宏观经济环境、法律、行业监管政策与市场开放程度等,海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目面临的主要风险包括法律合规风险、建设运营风险、政治与不可抗力风险、商业风险、金融风险。(1)法律合规风险法律合规风险贯穿整个项目生命周期。中国企业需要了解海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目所在地(东道国)的相关法律制度,依法合规地在当地实施项目。为此,中国企业需要关注基础设施项目的合法开发和授予、外商投资准入、审批许可、项目用地、项目公司设立及公司治理、外汇汇兑、环境保护、劳动用工、税收、进出口、当地成分等影响项目整体合法性及后续顺利实施的合规问题。此外,中国企业还需要结合项目实际情况,关注相关国际公约、双边/多边条约、其他相关司法管辖区的法律以及多边开发银行的适用规则等。(2)建设运营风险项目完工风险是海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目的核心风险。项目完工风险通常表现为工期延误、建设成本超支和工程质量缺陷三种情形,导致该等情形的原因往往包括未能及时取得项目建设相关许可证照、项目用土地获取受阻、设计图纸瑕疵、交付延误或设计变更、原材料、关键设备等项目必需品无法提供或供应不及时、现场存在不良地质条件、工程未达到合同规定的性能标准,或无法达到预期产能等。项目运营风险主要包括运营绩效不达标、运营成本超支、运营维护不符合要求导致项目发生事故等情况。对于海外基础设施投资者而言,顺利完工和成功实135第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践现商运仅是“万里长征走完了第一步”,此后则是十多年甚至数十年运营期的机遇和挑战。(3)政治与不可抗力风险海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目的合同履行期长、生命周期长,除了可能受自然灾害(如地震、海啸等)、流行疾病、罢工运动等常规不可抗力事件影响以外,也可能遭受东道国政权不稳、政府更替、汇兑限制、征收与国有化影响,甚至在项目实施期间面临禁运、暴动、内战、外敌入侵等政治风险事件的影响。(4)商业风险商业风险一般指因项目市场经济条件出现变化或因投资者/项目公司经营决策失误而导致项目不能获得正常收益的风险,主要包括由于项目产出的服务或产品的收费或收益不足、项目产出的服务或产品的市场价格波动、市场需求变动及原材料供应不足、设备费用上涨、人工费用上涨及通货膨胀而产生的风险等。(5)金融风险海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目的金融风险主要表现为东道国获取的收入不能按预期汇率兑换成外汇、外汇汇出受到限制以及汇率变化、项目相关国家的金融市场利率发生波动(特别是发生与预测情况相反的变化)时造成的投资者/项目公司需要增加融资成本等风险。2.海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目风险防范面对前述海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目不同阶段和不同类型的风险,中国企业应在识别风险的基础上,利用适用法律和合同机制,有预见性地采取事前风险防范措施,维护企业合法权益。得益于金杜覆盖工程与基建、投融资、税务、劳动、知识产权和争议解决等领域的专业团队配置及遍布全球的法律服务网络,根据我们针对不同法域、不同性质的海外基础设施与国际工程项目,向中国企业提供覆盖境外项目开发、投融资、建设、运营全生命周期、一站式法律服务的实践,我们和大136第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践家分享如下经验,以减少风险的发生。(1)法律尽调结合每一个海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目的具体情况,通过法律尽调识别并评估上述五类风险,是防范和管控项目法律风险的第一步。法律尽调通常包括以下三方面:1)法律环境尽调法律环境尽调是指对于东道国与项目相关的法律环境进行尽职调查。通常,海外基础设施投资项目的法律环境尽职调查主要围绕项目的投融资、建设和/或运营了解东道国法律针对基础设施项目所属行业的外商准入条件与投资限制、公司设立与治理、主要监管机构和监管规则、项目开发路径、授予程序、土地权属与土地优惠政策、设计、采购与施工涉及的招投标要求、进出口管制、项目资产权属、担保机制、项目产品或服务的价格机制与政府补贴、外汇、税收、劳动、保险、东道国参加有关投资保护条约的情况、合同适用法律及争议解决机制等方面的具体规定,以便投资者对于项目投融资、建设与运营项目的法律与商业风险进行识别预判、评估与应对。国际工程的法律环境尽调则主要围绕外国承包商在东道国开展工程建设的相关问题展开法律尽职调查,相当于聚焦海外基础设施投资项目的建设期法律问题。2)项目公司法律尽调项目公司法律尽调针对的是为项目开发实施专门设立特殊目的公司。取决于项目所处阶段的不同,对项目公司的法律尽调的关注重点会有较大不同。例如,对于处于项目早期开发阶段、尚未实现融资关闭的项目公司,项目公司尽调聚焦前期项目开发成果、项目开发权合法性与有效性;对于实现商业运营不久的项目公司,则多关注项目是否有工程承包商索赔的潜在风险,是否可能因项目超期或超支影响项目公司股权估值。137第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践3)合作方/交易相对方尽调合作方/交易相对方尽调主要是针对合作方/交易相对方如股东、业主等实施的尽职调查。与项目公司法律尽调不同,该尽调主要关注合作方/交易相对方的合法存续、资产与信用、重大债务风险、合规经营等履约能力相关的风险。尽管存在以上三方面尽调,实践中,往往结合项目具体情况选择其中一种或多种尽调方式的组合。例如,就海外基础设施的绿地投资项目,法律尽调通常选择法律环境尽调和合作方/交易相对方的尽调,而棕地投资项目,除了法律环境尽调和合作方/交易相对方的尽调外,还会涉及项目公司尽调,甚至可能因交易结构的设计,增加项目公司的股东尽调。对于参与国际工程的中国企业,其核心商业意图主要是为顺利实施工程、实现承揽工程的经济效益,规避承揽工程的风险负担,故法律尽调主要涉及法律环境尽调和合作伙伴/交易相对方尽调。(2)交易结构设计海外基础设施投资项目多具有投资规模大、投融资结构复杂、项目建设周期长、效益回收慢的特点,项目整体交易结构的设计既是隔离风险的需要,也是优化投资的需要。一般来说,投资者在设计项目交易结构时应重点考虑投资路径的选择、项目实施形式、融资模式、保险安排等方面的因素。1)投资路径的选择为隔离风险,投资者一般会通过境外平台公司参与海外基础设施投资项目,平台公司设立地成为投资者首先需要确定的事项。通常来说,除了需要考虑公司设立程序、中国境外投资审批、跨境文书认证等与平台公司设立所需时间相关的因素,平台公司设立还应考虑税收筹划与节税、风险隔离与退出自由、境外资金池与融资渠道、争议解决连接点(如投资保护协定)等多个因素。其中,就争议解决连接点的选择,实践中,不仅仅是最终投资者可以作为提起仲裁申请的一方,最终投资者在第三国设置的平台公司通常也可以成为适格的投资者申请仲裁,因而通过规划投138第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践资路径,选择与所投资的东道国之间签署更优多边或双边条约的第三国设立平台公司的“条约选择(Treaty Shopping)”也是管控海外基础设施投资风险的重要手段之一。2)项目的实施形式投资者一般需要在东道国设立当地项目公司以开发、投资、建设及运营海外基础设施投资项目。投资人一般会关注项目公司的公司形式、公司设立程序、股东权利、治理结构、议事表决机制、股份转让、小股东权利保护、退出机制等事项。针对棕地投资项目,虽然通常不会涉及项目公司设立,但收购完成后可能需要在项目公司层面进行一定的变更登记程序。就国际工程项目而言,按照我们以往经验,在大部分国家可以中国企业的名义直接承建工程,在少部分国家则需要中国企业(作为外国承包商)设立当地商业存在(如子公司、分公司、代表处、项目办公室等),或需要与当地有相关资质的工程承包企业组成联合体共同实施项目。3)融资模式除私人投资者自有资金或政府在特定项目中给予的一定支持作为项目的资金来源以外,通常情况下,项目建设所需的绝大部分资金需要通过债务融资获得,既包括银行贷款(商业银行、政策性银行或多边开发银行等),也包括通过发行项目债券获得的资金等。债务融资依据借贷主体的不同,可分为企业融资和项目融资。在企业融资模式下,融资银行将向投资者(而非项目公司)提供贷款,相应地,其关注的核心则是投资者(作为项目公司的母公司)本身的信用评级和资产负债表;而在项目融资模式下,融资银行将向项目公司提供贷款,融资银行是否放贷主要取决于项目公司本身的资产和收入情况。在交易结构设计阶段,投资者需要结合自有资金和政府所提供的资金、项目公司资产(包括预期收益)等整体情况,设计项目的融资模式。就债务融资而言,实践中海外基础设施投资项目一般采用有限追索的项目融资模式。融资机构往往要求项目公司主要股东(发起人)提供一定的融资担保,包括股权质押和完工担保。各股东方是否为项目融资目的按比例提供股权质押的融139第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践资担保,是实务中的谈判要点之一。4)保险安排如前所述,海外基础设施投资项目周期长,投资者可能会面临建设运营、政治与不可抗力、交易对手违约等商业和政治风险,购买商业保险(如工程一切险、雇主责任险、机具设备险、海运险)和政治保险是转嫁和缓释海外商业、政治风险的重要手段。中国出口信用保险公司(中信保)是我国唯一承办政策性出口信用保险业务的金融机构,为海外基础设施投资与国际工程项目提供短期出口信用保险特定合同保险、中长期出口信用保险、海外投资(股权)保险和海外投资(债权)保险等多种保单,为中国企业投资或参与东道国建设发生的国有化征收、汇兑限制、战争及政治暴乱、违约等商业、政治风险造成的经济损失提供风险保障。此外,项目相关的政治保险、商业保险等保单也是融资方的核心关注所在。投资者在项目交易结构设计阶段,应结合对相关合同机制的分析,以及项目的可融资性,综合考虑需要购买的保险,并在商业报价时充分考虑保险相关费用。(3)项目文件项目文件是分配风险的重要工具。投资者需要综合考虑项目授予、股权投资、项目融资、担保、建设施工、运营维护、燃料供应、出售公共产品和服务等一系列问题,并相应签署一系列具有不同侧重的合同文件。总体而言,海外基础设施投资项目中可能涉及的合同文件,可以分为项目投资文件包、特许文件包、融资文件包及项目实施文件包。如何按照一定原则合理地将法律合规风险、建设运营风险、政治与不可抗力风险、商业风险、金融风险等通过交易文件在各当事方之间进行分配,是每个项目参与方都需要重点考虑的问题。1)项目投资文件包投资文件一般包括合作框架协议、股东协议、公司章程、股权购买协议等文件。就投资者而言,其提供的股权出资往往最早投入到项目中,但直至项目周期完结最后退出项目,体现了发起人/投资人与融资方之间的核心风险利益分配逻辑。视项140第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践目所处开发阶段不同,就投资者各方之间,往往从签署初步的合作框架协议开始,确定初步意向,并最终形成有约束力的股权交易文件(包括股东协议、公司章程、股权并购协议),根据交易类型不同围绕出资、估值、定价、支付、交割、决策、退出等事项设计具体的合同机制,规定各方权利义务。2)特许权文件包特许权文件一般包括特许权协议(PPP 协议)和承购协议。除此之外,在特定国别和特定行业,政府或其他担保方可能还会就特许权协议和/或承购协议出具担保,保证特许权协议和/或承购协议下相对方的支付和其他义务。特许权协议是海外基础设施投资项目的核心项目交易文件,特许期一般覆盖项目商业运营后 15 至30 年,涵盖项目授予与实施、政府支持、政治风险分配、建设、运营及维护、公共服务购买、税收优惠、进出口便利、外汇汇兑与汇出、交叉和终止赔偿等机制,是项目实施的基石和构建项目可融资性的核心。以发电项目的特许权文件为例,一般包括特许权协议和购电协议,在自由电力市场国家可能只有购电协议。无论如何,采用项目融资模式的电力项目特许权文件需充分考虑如下要素:电价水平合理且允许调整:能够保证收回投资和预期利润并形成稳定的现金流;合理的“照付不议”:照付不议的电量或容量并非越高越好,照付不议的电量或容量越高,相应地,购电方要求项目公司承担的此类违约责任越严格;核心项目风险分配:审批许可、土地取得、法律变更、不可抗力等风险是否得到合理分配,相关风险情形发生时,赔偿金额能否覆盖银行贷款本息;协议终止事项:终止情形是否有限、可控、符合惯例,且终止时赔偿金额是否足够覆盖银行贷款本息;以及141第三部分 海外投资贸易以及风险应对相关的法律实践 融资方的权利:融资
Acknowledgements06A message from Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala07Introduction 4Chapter I5AcknowledgementsThis publication has been prepared under the direction of Robert Koopman,former Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division,and the International Trade Statistics Section.The coordination of the report was undertaken by Christophe Degain and Florian Eberth.Statistical research,data compilation and the preparation of estimates were conducted by Barbara dAndrea-Adrian,Shradha Bhatia,Lori Chang,Christophe Degain,Florian Eberth,Zineb Haj Nassar,Coleman Nee and Ying Yan.Contributions to this publication were also provided by the Research Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division.The International Trade Statistics Section also wishes to thank colleagues from the Information and External Relations Division(IERD)and the Language and Documentation Services Division(LDSD)whose collaboration is vital in the production of this report.In particular,recognition is due to Anthony Martin,Serge Marin-Pache and Steve Cooper in IERD and to the French and Spanish translators in LDSD.Finally,we wish to thank the users of WTO statistics for their constructive suggestions on how to improve our statistical output.This regular feedback allows us to constantly refine the data we provide.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 6A message from Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-IwealaNgozi Okonjo-Iweala Director-GeneralAfter rebounding strongly,if unevenly,from the slump caused by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,global trade in merchandise and services faces renewed headwinds,amid a slowing global economy,persistent inflation,monetary tightening,and the ongoing impacts of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.In October,the WTO downgraded its forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2023 to 1.0 per cent,in volume terms well below the 3.4 per cent growth projected as recently as April.The war,which started in February 2022,has weighed heavily on world trade,with sharp rises in commodity prices and disruptions in access to essential goods such as grain,gas,and fertilizers.The Black Sea Grain Initiative,a deal brokered by the United Nations and Trkiye to get trapped Ukrainian grain,as well as Russian food and fertilizer,to international markets,has delivered critical supplies to people in developing and other countries,and put downward pressure on world market prices.But prices remain high by historical standards in many countries,particularly in local currency terms.The data in this report,which cover trade in 2021 and the first half of 2022,shed light on recent trends in world trade,providing insights into the repercussions of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine on the global economy,commodity prices,inflation,goods shortages,and supply chain congestion.Global merchandise trade grew by 26 per cent in value terms in 2021 with estimated average price increases of 15 per cent accounting for the difference with the 9.8 per cent increase in global merchandise trade volumes.Particularly strong year-on-year growth was observed for major manufacturing inputs such as iron and steel( 60 per cent)and chemicals( 26 per cent).The value of world trade in pharmaceuticals and office and telecom equipment was as much as 1.3 times higher in 2021 than in 2019,before the pandemic,mostly due to high demand for COVID-19 vaccines and an increase in remote working.World trade in commercial services was up 16 per cent year-on-year in 2021,boosted by the recovery in demand for transport services( 35 per cent)and the resilience of other services( 12 per cent),including financial and business services,fostered by digital technologies.Digitally delivered services which are critical for remote work,learning,and entertainment were estimated at US$3.71 trillion in 2021,30 per cent above 2019 levels.This continues the growth recorded in 2020.However,despite positive year-on year growth,travel-related expenditures remained 57 per cent below 2019 levels,as travel restrictions were only partially eased during the year.As a result,total services trade remained 5 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.Exports of goods from least-developed countries(LDCs)in 2021 performed marginally better than the world average( 26.9 per cent versus 26.6 per cent),but LDC exports of commercial services lagged behind( 9 per cent versus 17 per cent).Given the relatively small share of services in the LDC export basket,LDCs share in world goods and services exports remained at 0.93 per cent in 2020 and 2021.Improving the integration of LDCs into the world trading system remains a priority,with important roles for Aid for Trade and capacity-building initiatives regarding digital infrastructure and governance.Trade in intermediate goods recorded a 28 per cent year-on-year increase in value terms in 2021,followed by estimated 10 per cent growth in Q1 2022.Despite difficulties in global supply chains such as port congestion,component and labour shortages,and rising operating costs,the share of intermediate goods in world exports(excluding fuels)remained at its long-term trend level of just over 50 per cent,suggesting that supply chains did not see wide-scale retrenchment.We hope the statistics and insights in this report will be useful for WTO members,trade analysts and all policymakers seeking to respond to current challenges and lay the foundations for strong,sustainable and inclusive future growth.It is also a reminder of the importance of accurate trade data for monitoring the pursuit of sustainability targets as well as the implementation and impact of agreements reached at the WTOs 12th Ministerial Conference in June 2022.I would like to thank the team who worked on this report.7Chapter I:IntroductionWorld trade overview10Merchandise trade12Commercial services15Leading traders18Least-developed countries(LDCs)19Highlights of world trade in 2021 8Chapter II9Year-on-year percentage changeQuarter1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 234 1 23 4-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0P%ServicesGoodsYear20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021World trade overviewTrade in goods made a strong recovery in 2021,exceeding pre-pandemic levels,while services trade remained well below its 2019 value.Chart 2.1World trade in goods and commercial services,2008-2021,quarterly(Year-on-year percentage change)Note:Trade as average of exports and imports.Source:WTO-UNCTAD-ITC. 27%Trade in goods has recovered faster than services trade due to strong consumer demand for products,especially in advanced economies,sustained by governments fiscal stimulus measures.In 2021,trade in goods rose by 27 per cent year-on-year,and by 17 per cent in comparison with 2019. 16%By contrast,unequal distribution of vaccines,the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and border restrictions continued to weigh on the recovery of tourism and passenger transport in the services sector.Trade in commercial services expanded by 16 per cent in 2021.However,it remained 5 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 10 10010020030040050060020172018201920202021416470420365586US$billion US$170 billion682%Manufactured goodsOther goods02004006008001,0001,200201720182019202020219441,0361,0418561,1581,1151,2461,2371,0251,374ExportsImportsUS$billion05101520252017201820192020202117.319.018.517.021.65.45.96.15.05.8GoodsCommercial servicesUS$trillion%share in world merchandise exports81012146162017201820192020202112.812.713.114.715.18.78.58.68.17.88.28.07.87.87.3ChinaUnited StatesGermany Trade in goods and servicesWorld trade in goods and services amounted to US$27.3 trillion in 2021,a 24 per cent increase compared with 2020.Note:Average of exports and imports.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Leading merchandise tradersChina,the United States and Germany were the top three merchandise exporters in 2021,representing 15 per cent(China),8 per cent(United States)and 7 per cent(Germany)of world exports.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Manufactured goodsTrade in manufactured goods represented 68 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2021,with a value of US$14.8 trillion.Source:WTO estimates.Transport servicesTrade in transport services rose by 35 per cent in 2021,fuelled by a surge in freight shipping rates.The total value exceeds pre-pandemic levels.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Iron and steelWorld exports of iron and steel grew the most among manufactured goods in 2021.Since 2017,they have increased by US$170 billion.Source:WTO estimates.Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 11Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 11010203040WorldSouth&CentralAmericaAsiaNorth AmericaEuropeAfricaMiddleEastCommonwealthof IndependentStates(CIS),includingassociate andformer memberstates26.137.728.723.222.531.531.234.29.715.612.39.58.26.44.94.8Merchandise trade in valueMerchandise trade in volumeUS$billion05,00010,00015,00020,00020172018201920202021*17,20918,99318,49517,13521,6781,7251,8041,7801,8032,1402,6153,2703,0882,3263,65812,00613,01012,75012,13114,823TotalAgricultureFuels and miningManufactured goodsMerchandise tradeAll regions recorded growth in merchandise trade in 2021.Trade in US dollar terms rose more sharply than trade in terms of volume.The strength of recovery of merchandise trade differed markedly across regions.Merchandise exportsWorld exports of fuels and mining products contributed more than any other product group to the 26 per cent growth in world merchandise exports in 2021.Chart 2.2World merchandise trade by regions,2021(Annual percentage change) 37.7%South and Central America registered 37.7 per cent growth in the value of merchandise trade in 2021,the strongest among all regions.This was due to the rising prices of primary commodities,such as fuel,grains and base metal,which the region mostly imports from the Commonwealth of Independent States,Africa and the Middle East.*Estimate for product break-down.Data include trade within the European Union and exclude re-exports of Hong Kong,China.Source:WTO estimates.Chart 2.3Merchandise exports by major product group,2017-21(US$billion)Source:WTO estimates. 57%Fuels and mining products rose by 57 per cent in 2021,due to a hike in energy prices and a rebound in demand. 22%Exports of manufactured goods grew by 22 per cent in 2021,after a decline of 5 per cent in 2020. 19%Exports of agricultural products increased the least in 2021,rising by 19 per cent.The lower growth is because agricultural exports remained resilient in 2020 despite the pandemic.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 12 12Annual percentage change20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-60-40-200204060364-3-7-41-173030-7-3364351-3-7-44-172729-8-2973Fuel exportsFuel prices010203040506070Manufactured goods(total)Iron and steelChemicalsOffice andtelecomequipmentClothingAutomotiveproductsTextiles22.260.325.620.519.615.27.3Annual percentage changeWorld exports of manufactured goodsWorld exports of manufactured goods exceeded their pre-pandemic levels in 2021,increasing by 22 per cent with exports of iron and steel growing the most.Fuel prices and world fuel exportsWorld fuel exports bounced back in 2021 after the COVID-19-related collapse in demand in 2020.Fuel prices saw a sharp rise in 2021 due to the increased demand. 60%World exports of iron and steel increased the most in 2021,rising by 60 per cent driven by increased demand and high prices for raw materials. 7%Exports of textiles grew the least,rising by 7 per cent in 2021.This lower growth is because textiles maintained high values in 2020 despite the pandemic. 64%In 2021,world fuel exports reached a new peak in value terms,rising by 64 per cent and climbing to US$2,573billion. 73%Fuel prices jumped by 73 per cent in 2021,due to increased demand and limited production.Chart 2.4World exports of manufactured goods,2021(Annual percentage change)Chart 2.5World exports of fuels and fuel prices,2011-21(Annual percentage change)Note:Data include trade within the European Union and exclude re-exports of Hong Kong,China.Source:WTO estimates.Source:WTO Secretariat(export values)/IMF(fuel prices).Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 13Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 130102030405060701234204727212230282321332118668824448131019523831Total intermediate goods(IG)IG food&beveragesIG parts&accessories(excl.transport equipment)IG parts&accessories(transport equipment)IG ores;precious stones;rare earthsIG other industrial suppliesAnnual percentage changeQuarterUS$billion201920202021123412341234QuarterYear20040060080010001200AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth and Central AmericaAfrica43%and 35%Asia and Europe were the main providers of inputs for supply chains in 2021,representing 43 per cent and 35 per cent respectively of world exports of intermediate goods.67%Almost 67 per cent of Asian exports of industrial inputs were shipped within Asian supply chains,especially high-tech components such as processors.Exports of intermediate goods within Asia reached US$2.9 trillion in 2021.Chart 2.6 World exports of intermediate goods,total and by main category,2021Q1-Q4Source:WTO estimates.Source:Trade Data Monitor(110 reporting economies,including estimates for Africa).Regional breakdown of world exports of intermediate goodsAsia and Europe represented close to 80 per cent of world exports of intermediate goods in 2021. 46%and-12%The fluctuation in exports of ores and precious stones reflects the rise in prices of iron ores during the first half of 2021(46 per cent)and decline in the second half(-12 per cent). 68%Q2 of 2021 saw a recovery(68 per cent)in automotive supply chains,from a low base,following the strong decline recorded by the automotive industry in terms of supply and demand during the peak of the pandemic.World exports of intermediate goodsWorld exports of intermediate goods used in supply chains grew by 28 per cent in 2021.Sustained growth of“other industrial supplies”,representing nearly half of world exports and covering a wide range of manufacturing inputs from metal structures to electronic components and pharma products reflects increased activity in manufacturing production chains in 2021.Chart 2.7World exports of intermediate goods,by region,2019Q1-2021Q4World Trade Statistical Review 2022 14Year-on-year percentage changeQuarter-80%-60%-40%-20%0 %-100%TransportTravelOther commercial servicesYear20211 2 3 420201 2 3 420191 2 3 420181 2 3 420171 2 3 420161 2 3 420151 2 3 420141 2 3 420131 2 3 420121 2 3 420111 2 3 420101 2 3 420091 2 3 420081 2 3 4Note:Trade as average of exports and imports.Source:WTO-UNCTAD-ITC estimates.Commercial servicesChart 2.8World trade in commercial services by sectors,quarterly,2008-21(Year-on-year percentage change)A surge in consumer demand for goods along with pandemic-related restrictions resulted in port bottlenecks,a misallocation of containers”instead of shortage of containers worldwide and shipping delays,leading to a large increase in shipping rates in 2021 and strong growth in the value of sea transport services.However,by the end of 2021,travel-related expenditure was still 57 per cent below its value in 2019. 45%Following a 28 per cent plunge in Q2 of 2020,global transport services rebounded strongly in 2021,rising by 45 per cent on average in Q2 to Q4 of 2021.Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 1502040608010020192020202141.849.849.935.323.224.521.324.723.51.72.32.2Sea transportAir transportOther transport servicesPostal and courier servicesPercentage changeNote:Trade as average of exports and imports.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Annual percentage change0 0%-10%ComputerservicesAudio-visual andrelated servicesCharges for theuse of intellectual property,n.i.e.Insurance andpension servicesFinancial servicesOther businessservicesConstruction211514141212113422301812-820212021 vs.2019Chart 2.9Other commercial services by selected subsector,2021(Annual percentage change)Other commercial servicesExports of other commercial services ranging from computer services to construction were up 14 per cent globally in 2021.However,recovery was uneven across sectors.Supply chain disruptions boosted growth in insurance services but hindered recovery in construction,with exports 8 per cent below 2019 levels.This was due to shortages of essential building materials,such as steel,and high prices.As in 2020,computer services recorded the strongest growth. 14%Insurance services rose 14 per cent in 2021,up 30 per cent compared with 2019,as insurance premiums on freight transport soared. 21%Computer services continued to rise,increasing by 21 per cent in 2021,34 per cent above pre-pandemic levels.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Trade in transport servicesChart 2.10Breakdown of trade in transport services 2019-21(Percentage share)24.5%The value of air transport services,covering largely passenger transport,fell sharply in 2021 due to travel restrictions worldwide relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.As a result,the share of air transport in transport services overall contracted from 35.3 per cent in 2019 to 24.5 per cent in 2021.49.9%Boosted by high consumer demand for goods and surging shipping rates,sea transport services accounted for half(49.9 per cent)of trade in transport services in 2021.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 16Index 2005=10005010015020025030035040020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Digitally-delivered services exports(mode 1)Goods exportsNote:In the chart,digitally delivered services cover cross-border supply(mode 1 of the General Agreement on Trade in Services)of insurance and pension services,financial services,charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.,telecommunications,computer and information services,other business services,and personal,cultural and recreational services.Sources:For services,WTO estimates in the Trade in Services by Mode of Supply revised dataset(TiSMoS).For goods exports on balance-of-payment basis,WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Chart 2.11Global exports of digitally delivered services,2005-21(Index 2005=100)Global exports of digitally delivered services 7.3%Global exports of digitally delivered services have almost tripled since 2005,rising by 7.3 per cent on average per year from 2005 to 2019,outpacing goods exports( 4.7 per cent on a balance-of-payments basis). 14%While goods trade fell in 2020,exports of digitally delivered services rose by 14 per cent,boosted by an increase in remote working,distance learning and home entertainment due to COVID-19.3.71 trillionIn 2021,world exports of digitally delivered services reached an estimated value of US$3.71 trillion.Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 17Chart 2.12Changes in rankings for merchandise traders in the worlds top 100,2020-21(Rank)Chart 2.13Changes in rankings for commercial services traders among the worlds top 100,2020-21(Rank)Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.NorwaySloveniaPakistanNew ZealandLibyaAngolaDemocraticRepublic ofthe CongoMyanmarGhanaMacao,ChinaBruneiDarussalamNepalTanzaniaNicaraguaGuinea383549536157556089707772908373878189103951099911610398104112105105110BahamasLithuaniaEl SalvadorMacao,ChinaChileSaudi Arabia,Kingdom ofTrkiyeBangladeshAustraliaArgentinaUgandaKazakhstanQatarSri LankaNigeria11010057491009362565954373232287470252953589399677434418492506213Nepal jumped 13 places in its world ranking among merchandise traders,moving up to 103rd position in 2021.While China remained the leading merchandise trader in 2021,Macao(China)and Brunei Darussalam entered the top 100 merchandise traders in the world for the first time in over 15 years.This was prompted by strong imports of consumer goods for Macao(China)and strong exports and imports of mineral fuels for Brunei Darussalam.Economies such as Bangladesh and El Salvador that witnessed a boost in exports of other commercial services like computer services jumped up in rankings in 2021.70Bangladesh climbed four places among the leading traders of commercial services to 70th position in 2021.Leading tradersWorld Trade Statistical Review 2022 18Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.US$billion050100150200250201820192020202120019618122940432729GoodsCommercial services 27% 9% 27%LDCs goods exports rose by 27 per cent in 2021,in line with the rest of the world.Exports of goods from least-developed countries(LDCs)amounted to US$229 billion in 2021,a 27 per cent increase,while LDC exports of commercial services totalled US$29 billion,expanding by 9 per cent.Compared with pre-pandemic levels,goods exports were up 17 per cent while services exports remain 32 per cent below the value for 2019.This is because travel receipts continued to be affected by the pandemic and mobility restrictions. 9%The value of LDCs exports of commercial services expanded by 9 per cent in 2021,compared with 17 per cent for the rest of the world.Least-developed countries(LDCs)Chart 2.14Exports of least-developed countries,2018-21(US$billion)Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2021 19Trade and GDP growth in 2021 and first half of 202222Merchandise trade volume23Commodity prices25Exchange rates26Merchandise and commercial services trade values27Other trade-related indicators32World trade and economic growth,2021-22 20Chapter IIIWorld merchandise trade volume and real GDP rebounded strongly in 2021 after slumping in 2020 following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.Merchandise trade volume rose 9.7 per cent in 2021 while GDP at market exchange rates increased by 5.9 per cent.However,weaker trade growth was recorded in the first half of 2022.Merchandise trade made a strong recovery in 2021,as demand for imported goods continued to rebound from the pandemic-induced slump of 2020.However,disruptions to supply chains increasingly weighed on growth over the course of the year.Both merchandise and commercial services trade grew at double-digit rates in the first half of 2022 when measured in nominal US dollar terms.These increases were driven by higher food and energy prices as well as increased spending on travel and transport services.Merchandise exports were up 17 per cent year-on-year in value terms in the second quarter while commercial services exports were up 18 per cent in the first quarter.Merchandise trade slowed in the first half of 2022 as the global economy struggled under the influence of several related factors,including the war in Ukraine,high inflation and lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.Merchandise trade growth fell to 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022,with slower growth expected in the second half of the year.21-6-4-202468-81020152016201720182019202020212.21.44.93.20.5-5.29.73.02.73.33.22.6-3.45.8TradeGDPAverage trade growth 2010-2019Average GDP growth 2010-2019Annual percentage changeTrade and GDP growth in 2021 and first half of 2022World trade and GDP rebounded in 2021 after falling sharply in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic but weaker growth is expected in 2022 and 2023 as the global economy slows.Chart 3.1 World merchandise trade volume and real GDP growth,2015-21(Annual percentage change)Sources:WTO for trade,consensus estimates for GDP.Note:GDP growth is weighted at market exchange rates.The volume of world merchandise trade grew 9.7 per cent in 2021.Growth was up sharply from 2020,when merchandise trade fell 5.2 per cent during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.Trade growth in 2021 was well above the 2.7 per cent average rate for 2010-19,the period between the global financial crisis and the onset of the pandemic.Merchandise trade registered an even larger increase in US dollar terms in 2021,rising 26 per cent to US$22.46 billion after having fallen 7 per cent to US$17.76 billion in 2020.Stronger growth in value terms than in volume terms implies rising export and import prices.These were up 15.4 per cent on average in 2021.Growth in merchandise trade in 2021 was accompanied by a 5.8 per cent increase in world GDP at market exchange rates,well above the 3.0 per cent average rate for 2010-19.World trade grew around 1.7 times faster than world GDP in 2021.Supply chain disruptions increasingly weighed on trade over the course of 2021 and in the first half of 2022.Economic forecasts have pointed to further weakening of trade and GDP in the second half of 2022 and in 2023.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 22-20-15-10-505101520253.01.51.31.4-0.32.11.91.74.25.15.65.64.93.63.81.61.30.6-0.2-0.8-3.8-15.4-5.01.06.122.17.86.14.84.4Year-on-year%change9095100105110115120125Volume index,2015=100Volume index,2015=100Year-on-year%changeQuarter123412341234123412341234123412Year20152016201720182019202020212022Merchandise trade volumeMerchandise trade growth slowed in the first half of 2022 and was expected to diminish further in the second half of the year due to the Ukraine crisis,high inflation and lingering effects from the global pandemic.Chart 3.2 World merchandise trade volume,2015Q1-2022Q2(Volume index 2015=100 and year-on-year percentage change)Source:WTO and UNCTAD.Year-on-year growth in the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade peaked at 22.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2021,one year after the low point of the 2020 recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.Merchandise trade slowed in the first half of 2022 as the global economy struggled under several related factors,including the conflict in Ukraine,high inflation and lingering effects from the pandemic.Merchandise trade growth fell to 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022,with slower growth expected in the second half of the year.Despite the slowdown,global merchandise trade volume remained at an all-time high in 2022Q2,up 7.4 per cent from its pre-pandemic peak in the third quarter of 2019.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 2360708090100110120130North AmericaSouth AmericaaEuropeCISbAfricaMiddle EastAsiaQuarter 12341234121234Year2019202020212022Volume index,2019=100Volume index,2019=10060708090100110120130North AmericaSouth AmericaaEuropeCISbAfricaMiddle EastAsiaQuarter 12341234121234Year2019202020212022Merchandise trade growth has varied strongly across regions since the start of the Ukraine crisis in the first quarter of 2022.Chart 3.3 Merchandise export and import volume by region,2019Q1-2022Q2(Volume index,2019=100)a Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.b Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States,including certain associate and former member states.Sources:WTO and UNCTAD.ExportsImports The Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS),including certain associate and former member states,recorded a sharp 10.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in the volume of its merchandise exports in the second quarter of 2022,partly as a result of reduced shipments of energy to European trading partners.Meanwhile,the volume of CIS imports plunged 21.7 per cent as sanctions against the Russian Federation took effect.Quarter-on-quarter export growth in Q2 of 2022 was 6.5 per cent in the Middle East,2.5 per cent in Africa and 1.3 per cent in South America.Increased shipments from other petroleum-exporting regions partly made up for reduced supplies from the CIS.Import volumes were up 6.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Africa,5.5 per cent in the Middle East and 1.6 per cent in South America,as surging export revenues allowed countries in these regions to import more.Merchandise export and import volumes were up in North America and Europe in Q2 of 2022 compared to Q1 but trade in Asia declined,falling 0.5 per cent on the export side and 0.3 per cent on the import side.The trade slowdown in Asia is partly attributable to impacts of the pandemic on supply chains,which interrupted production and disrupted shipments of goods in China.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 24Index,2019=10012345620190200400600800EnergyCrude oilNatural gasFoodGrainsFertilizersMonthYear789 10 11 12 1234562020789 10 11 121234562021781234562022789 10 11 12US$/MMBtu020406080Natural gas,USNatural gas,EuropeNatural gas,Japan1234562019MonthYear78910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678910 11 12 12345678202020212022Prices of primary commodities,such as energy(coal,natural gas,spot crude and propane)and food,rose steeply in 2022,led by sharply higher European natural gas prices in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.Chart 3.4 Monthly average prices for primary commodities,January 2019-September 2022(Index 2019=100 and US$per million Btu)Btu=British thermal unit.Source:World Bank.Prices for energy and food products increased sharply following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.Energy prices in September 2022 were up 47 per cent year-on-year and 125 per cent compared to January 2021.Food prices also rose 12 per cent year-on-year in September and 19 per cent since January 2021.The rise in energy prices was driven by natural gas,which jumped 118 per cent year-on-year in September 2022 and 433 per cent since January 2021.Crude oil prices moderated between June and September but remained high,up 64 per cent compared to January 2021 Global grain prices were up 21 per cent year-on-year in September 2022,including a 24 per cent rise in the price of wheat.Particularly worrying for food security was the price of fertilizers,which were up 75 per cent year-on-year in September.High fertilizer prices could cause farmers in poor countries to use less or do without,with negative consequences for crop yields.Natural gas prices have varied strongly across regions since the start of 2021.In September 2022,European gas prices were more than eight times higher than in January 2021.Prices in the United States nearly tripled over the same period but remained low compared to Europe,US$7.76 per million Btu compared to US$59.10.Commodity pricesChapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 25859095100105110115ChinaEuro areaJapanUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndex,January 2014=1001 246357 8 9 101112201820192020202120221 246357 8 9 101112 1 246357 8 9 101112 1 246357 8 9 101112 1 246357MonthYearExchange ratesExchange rates fluctuated strongly in 2021 and 2022,with safe haven currencies appreciating and those of energy importers depreciating.Chart 3.5 Exchange rate indices for selected economies,January 2018 August 2022a(Index,January 2014=100)a Real effective exchange rates against a broad basket of currencies.Source:Bank for International Settlements(BIS).The real effective exchange rate of the US dollar rose steadily in 2021 and increased more sharply in 2022,reflecting both the expected tightening of US monetary policy and the dollars status as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.The dollar appreciated 3.9 per cent against a broad basket of currencies between January and December 2021 and a further 6.8 per cent between January and August 2022.Dollar appreciation also contributed to food insecurity by making many countries imports more expensive in national currency terms.The Chinese yuan gained 7.0 per cent in value against other currencies over the course of 2021 but only rose 0.3 per cent in the first eight months of 2022.In contrast,the euro fell 2.5 per cent between January and December 2021 before losing another 3.5 per cent between January and August 2022.The British pound appreciated by 3.5 per cent over the course of 2021 before falling 3.6 per cent in the first eight months of 2022.The value of the Japanese yen has declined steadily,dropping 6.8 per cent against currencies of Japans trading partners between January and December 2021 and another 9.8 per cent between January and August 2022.The depreciation of the yen partly reflects Japans status as a net importer of energy during a period of high oil and gas prices.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 26Year-on-year percentage change in US$values020406080Total merchandiseAgricultural productsFuels and mining productsManufactured goods221882152016591517136010323569262021Q42022Q12022Q2First half 2022/2019Higher prices for fuels and agricultural products boosted trade values in 2021 and the first half of 2022,contributing to double-digit growth in merchandise trade values.Merchandise and commercial services trade valuesChart 3.6 World merchandise exports by sector,2021Q4-2022Q2(Year-on-year percentage change in US$values)Sources:WTO estimates.Total merchandise trade in nominal US dollar terms was up 17 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022,mostly due to rising export and import prices.The US dollar value of trade in agricultural products was up 13 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022 while trade in fuels and mining products rose 60 per cent.Meanwhile,trade in manufactured goods only increased 10 per cent in Q2.The value of merchandise trade in the first half of 2022 was up 32 per cent compared to the first half of 2019,before the pandemic.The value of trade in fuels and mining products increased 69 per cent over the same period while the value of agricultural products trade rose 34 per cent.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 27Year-on-year percentage change in US$values0204060802221301562415323201926145846711617232092435781432254323414555392021Q42022Q12022Q2First half 2022/2019WorldNorth AmericaSouth AmericaaEuropeCISbAfricaMiddle EastAsiaOil-producing regions recorded the strongest growth in export values but exports from Asia were also up substantially compared to the pre-pandemic period.Chart 3.7 Merchandise exports by region,2021Q4-2022Q2(Year-on-year percentage change in US$values)a Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.b Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States,including certain associate and former member states.Sources:WTO and UNCTAD.In the second quarter of 2022,the highest year-on-year growth in the value of merchandise exports was recorded in the Middle East(78 per cent)and in Africa(35 per cent),well above the world average of 17 per cent.Growth was slightly above average in the CIS region(24 per cent),North America(23 per cent)and South America(20 per cent).It was below average in Asia(14 per cent)and Europe(9 per cent).Exports from Asia in the first half of 2022 were up 39 per cent compared to the first half of 2019,reflecting the strong trade performance of the region during the COVID-19 pandemic.However,the regions exports are expected to grow more slowly from the second half of 2022 as external demand weakens.Export growth in value terms remained positive in the CIS region as higher prices masked a decline in volume terms.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 28Year-on-year percentage change in US$values-40-200204060242046202325222921223424319211818223418-2823231533324633-12824362021Q42022Q12022Q2First half 2022/2019WorldNorth AmericaSouth AmericaaEuropeCISbAfricaMiddle EastAsiaMerchandise imports in value terms grew at double-digit rates in all regions except the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS),where imports fell sharply in the second quarter of 2022.Chart 3.8 Merchandise imports by region,2021Q4-2022Q2(Year-on-year percentage change in US$values)a Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.b Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States,including certain associate and former member states.Sources:WTO and UNCTAD.The highest year-on-year growth in the value of merchandise imports in the second quarter of 2022 was recorded by South America(34 per cent),well above the world average of 18 per cent.Growth was slightly above the world average in Africa(23 per cent),the Middle East(23 per cent)and North America(22 per cent).It was in line with the global average in Europe(18 per cent)and slightly below average in Asia(15 per cent).Meanwhile,imports plunged by 28 per cent in the CIS region,mostly as a result of sanctions against the Russian Federation.Figures for the CIS should be interpreted with caution since economic data for the Russian Federation has become scarce.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 29Year-on-year percentage change in US$values-40-20020406080-60100Commercial servicesGoods-related servicesTransport servicesTravelOther commercial services26175059162111477410189378977037-48202021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q1/2019Q1Commercial services trade continued to recover in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022,with moderate growth in goods-related services and“other commercial services”balanced by strong recoveries in travel and transport services.Chart 3.9 Commercial services exports by category,2021Q3-2022Q1(Year-on-year percentage change in US$values)Sources:WTO and UNCTAD.Year-on-year growth in the US dollar value of world commercial services trade slowed from 26 per cent in the third quarter of 2021 to 21 per cent in the fourth quarter,and then to 18 per cent in the first quarter of 2022.These growth rates are slightly lower than those for merchandise trade in the same period due to the fact that services trade declined less than merchandise trade during the pandemic.The category of“other commercial services”,which includes financial and other business services,was up 7 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 while goods-related services registered a 9 per cent increase.In the same period,transport services were up 37 per cent while travel rose 89 per cent after a prolonged pandemic-related slump.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 30Year-on-year percentage change in US$valuesUnited StatesaEuropean UnionUnited KingdomChinaaIndiaCommercial servicesTransportTravelOtherCommercial servicesTransportTravelOtherCommercial servicesTransportTravelOtherCommercial servicesTransportTravelOtherCommercial servicesTransportTravelOther-500501001502001639104517321612114813422253-221030509125Most large economies recorded strong growth in travel and transport services in the first half of 2022,which is likely to be sustained in the third quarter before slowing in the fourth.Chart 3.10 Commercial services exports of selected economies,January-June 2022a(Year-on-year percentage change in US$values)aUnited States and China refer to January-July.Note:Other includes goods-related services.Source:WTO and national statistics.Data for the five largest services exporting economies in the first half of 2022 illustrate more recent developments in commercial services trade.Travel exports were up strongly in most cases(161 per cent in the European Union,134 per cent in the United Kingdom and 104 per cent in the United States)as pandemic-related restrictions eased and pent-up demand for travel was released.China was the main exception,where spending on travel fell 22 per cent year-on-year due to extended restrictions following new outbreaks of COVID-19.Other services(including goods-related services)grew at a modest pace since they did not decline as much as travel and transport services during the pandemic.India was an exception,with strong growth of 25 per cent,linked to computer and IT services being in high demand since early in the pandemic.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 312530354045505560Headline Global PMINew export ordersDiffusion index,base=50Diffusion index,base=50201820192020202120221 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112MonthYear201820192020202120221 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112MonthYear304050607080Input pricesOutput pricesStocks of finished goodsSupplier delivery timesOther trade-related indicatorsPurchasing managers indices(PMIs)for September 2022 showed global manufacturing activity and trade slowing,partly relieving earlier pressures on supply chains.Chart 3.11 Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices(PMIs),January 2018-September 2022(Diffusion index,base=50)Source:J.P.Morgan and S&P Global.Note:Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.The global purchasing managers index(PMI)is a leading economic indicator based on surveys of businesses in more than 40 countries.Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.The manufacturing PMIs headline index fell to 49.8 in September 2022,marking the first contraction since June 2020.The new export orders sub-index also fell to 45.9 in the same month.Together,these suggest that global manufacturing activity stalled by the end of the third quarter and that goods trade would continue to slow in the fourth quarter.Other sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI cast light on the state of global supply chains.An index representing input prices fell from 71.6 in April 2022 to 61.2 in September.Another showing final goods prices dropped from 63.8 to 56.6 over the same period.Delivery times also shortened in August and stocks of finished goods rose.These suggest that inflationary pressures and supply chain issues were easing in September,possibly due to weakening demand.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 32Index 2015=100859095100105110115120125130135Original series(Index 2015=100)Seasonally and working day adjusted2468 10 1220152468 10 1220162468 10 1220172468 10 1220182468 10 1220192468 10 1220202468 10 1220212462022MonthYearShipping indices showed global container throughput at an all-time high in September 2022 but not much higher than in 2021,suggesting weak trade growth in 2022.Chart 3.12 Global container throughput index,January 2015-August 2022(Index 2015=100)Source:Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics.Note:The index is based on data gathered from 94 ports accounting for 64 per cent of global container traffic.The volume of world container shipping reached an all-time high in August 2022,although it has been mostly flat since October 2020.Throughput dipped in April 2022 due to pandemic-related lockdowns in China but traffic rebounded after restrictions were relaxed.The decline in China was partly made up for by increased container handling at US ports,which previously experienced severe congestion.New outbreaks of COVID-19 could again interrupt shipping and hamper trade in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 33International commercial flights made a partial recovery in 2021 and grew steadily in 2022,reflecting stronger growth of travel and transport services.Chart 3.13 International commercial flights,January 2020-August 2022(Index,week of 1 January=100,7-day moving average)Source:OpenSky Network and WTO Secretariat Calculations.International commercial flights are classified as transport services and are closely associated with travel expenditure by international tourists.Both cargo and passenger flights also carry significant quantities of goods,so they are linked to both merchandise and commercial services trade.Daily commercial flights,including flights within the European Union,finally exceeded their level at the start of 2020 during the summer of 2022.However,flights excluding those within the EU remained below their pre-pandemic level in August 2022.Rising fuel costs and increased economic uncertainty are expected to weigh on commercial flights in the remaining months of 2022 and in 2023.Index,week of 1 January=100,7-day moving average020406080100120International flightsInternational flights excl.Intra-EU01-01-202029-01-202026-02-202025-03-202022-04-202020-05-202017-06-202015-07-202012-08-202009-09-202007-10-202004-1 1-202002-12-202030-12-202027-01-202124-02-202125-03-202122-04-202120-05-202118-06-202116-07-202113-08-20211 1-09-202110-10-202107-1 1-202106-12-202103-01-202231-01-202201-03-202230-03-202227-04-202225-05-202223-06-202221-07-202019-08-2022World Trade Statistical Review 2022 34Index,January 2020=100 050100150200250Value in US$VolumeMonthYear1246357891011122020124635789101112202112463572022The volume of world wheat trade declined slightly after the start of the Ukraine conflict but prices rose substantially,increasing the cost of imported food for consumers and undermining global food security.Chart 3.14 Estimated value and volume of world wheat exports,January 2020-July 2022(Index,January 2020=100)Source:WTO estimates based on partner statistics.The estimated volume of world trade in wheat fell nearly 20 per cent between March and July 2022 following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but it was only down 4 per cent compared to July 2021.The decline in wheat trade in quantity terms was not as severe as it might have been but consumers could still have difficulty obtaining necessities due to higher prices.The cumulative value of world wheat trade between March and July 2022 was 64 per cent higher than during the same period in the previous year.Underlying data suggest that some countries have responded to higher wheat prices by reducing consumption and imports.Since March 2022,quantities of imported wheat were down year-on-year in Bolivia(-69 per cent),Jordan(-41 per cent),Zambia(-38 per cent),Nigeria(-37 per cent)and Ecuador(-30 per cent),among others.Chapter III:World trade and economic growth,2021-22 35Composition of geographical and economic groupings42Definitions and methodology42Specific notes for selected economies49Statistical sources50Abbreviations and symbols51Composition,definitions&methodology 40Chapter IV4141 North America South and Central America and the Caribbean Europe Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS),including certain associate and former member States Africa Middle East AsiaComposition of geographical and economic groupings Definitions and methodology Refer to the WTO Stats Portals Technical Notes for country group definitions at stats.wto.org.Exports and importsTwo systems of recording merchandise exports and imports are in common use.They are referred to as general trade and special trade and differ mainly in the way warehoused and re-exported goods are treated.General trade figures are larger than the corresponding special trade figures because the latter exclude certain trade flows,such as goods shipped through bonded warehouses.To the extent possible,total merchandise trade is defined in this report according to the general trade definition.It covers all types of inward and outward movement of goods through a country or territory including movements through customs warehouses and free zones.Goods include all merchandise that either add to or subtract from the stock of material resources of a country or territory by entering(imports)or leaving(exports)the countrys economic territory.For further explanations,see United Nations International Trade Statistics,Concepts and Definitions,Series M,N 52,Revision 3.Unless otherwise indicated,exports are valued at transaction value,including the cost of transportation and insurance to bring the merchandise to the frontier of the exporting country or territory(“free on board”valuation).Imports are valued at transaction value plus the cost of transportation and insurance to the frontier of the importing country or territory(“cost,insurance and freight”valuation).Merchandise tradeWorld Trade Statistical Review 2022 42A.Primary products(i)Agricultural products(SITC sections 0,1,2 and 4 minus divisions 27 and 28)of which,-Food(SITC sections 0,1,4 and division 22)of which,0-Food and live animals1-Beverages and tobacco4-Animal and vegetable oils,fats and waxes22-Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits-Fish(SITC division 03)-Other food products and live animals(SITC sections 0,1,4 and division 22 minus division 03)-Raw materials(SITC divisions 21,23,24,25,26,29)of which,21-Hides,skins and fur skins,raw23-Crude rubber(including synthetic and reclaimed)24-Cork and wood25-Pulp and waste paper26-Textile fibres(other than wool tops and other combed wool)and their wastes(not manufactured into yarn or fabric)29-Crude animal and vegetable materials,not elsewhere specified(ii)Fuels and mining products(SITC section 3 and divisions 27,28,68)of which,-Ores and other minerals(SITC divisions 27,28)of which,27-Crude fertilizers,other than those of division 56,and crude minerals(excluding coal,petroleum and precious stones)28-Metalliferous ores and metal scrap-Fuels(SITC section 3)-Non-ferrous metals(SITC division 68)Product group definitionsProductsAll product groups are defined according to Revision 3 of the Standard International Trade Classification(SITC)and to Revision 4 of the Classification by Broad Economic Categories(BEC).Throughout this report,other food products and live animals;beverages and tobacco;animal and vegetable oils,fats and waxes;oilseeds and oleaginous fruit are referred to as other food products;electronic data processing and office equipment is referred to as EDP and office equipment;and integrated circuits and electronic components is referred to as integrated circuits.Agricultural products according to the AoA(WTO Agreement on Agriculture)definition refer to HS chapters 1 to 24(excluding fish and fish products)and a number of manufactured agricultural products(for further information see“The Legal Texts,The Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Negotiations”,WTO).This definition does not correspond to the definition of agricultural products presented in the breakdown of merchandise trade by main product group,as indicated below.B.Manufactures(SITC sections 5,6,7,8 minus division 68 and group 891)(i)Iron and steel(SITC division 67)(ii)Chemicals(SITC section 5)of which,-Pharmaceuticals(SITC division 54)-Other chemicals(SITC divisions 51,52,53,55,56,57,58,59)of which,51-Organic chemicals52-Inorganic chemicals53-Dyeing,tanning and coloring materials55-Essential oils and resinoids and perfume materials;toilet,polishing and cleaning preparations56-Fertilizers(other than those of Group 272,i.e.Fertilizers,crude)57-Plastics in primary forms58-Plastics in non-primary forms59-Chemical materials and products,not elsewhere specifiedChapter IV:Composition,definitions&methodology43(iii)Other semi-manufactures(SITC divisions 61,62,63,64,66,69)of which,61-Leather,leather manufactures,not elsewhere specified and dressed fur skins62-Rubber manufactures,not elsewhere specified63-Cork and wood manufactures(excluding furniture)64-Paper,paperboard and articles of paper pulp,of paper or of paperboard66-Non-metallic mineral manufactures,not elsewhere specified69-Manufactures of metals,not elsewhere specified(iv)Machinery and transport equipment(SITC section 7)-Office and telecommunication equipment(SITC divisions 75,76 and group 776)of which,-Electronic data processing and office equipment(SITC division 75)-Telecommunications equipment(SITC division 76)-Integrated circuits,and electronic components(SITC group 776)-Transport equipment(SITC group 713,sub-group 7783 and divisions 78,79)of which,78-Road vehicles(including air-cushion vehicles)79-Other transport equipment-Automotive products(SITC groups 781,782,783,784 and subgroups 7132,7783)of which,781-Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons(other than public-transport type vehicles),including station wagons and racing cars782-Motor vehicles for the transport of goods and special purpose motor vehicles783-Road motor vehicles,not elsewhere specified784-Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles and tractors7132-Internal combustion piston engines for propelling vehicles listed above-Other transport equipment(SITC division 79,groups 713,785,786 minus sub-group 7132)of which,79-Other transport equipment713-Internal combustion piston engines,and parts thereof,not elsewhere specified785-Motorcycles and cycles,motorized and non-motorized786-Trailers and semi-trailers,other vehicles(not mechanically propelled),and specially designed and equipped transport containers-Other machinery(SITC divisions 71,72,73,74,77 minus groups 713,776 minus sub-group 7783)of which,-Power generating machinery(SITC division 71 minus group 713)of which,71-Power generating machinery and equipment minus713-Internal combustion piston engines,and parts thereof,not elsewhere specified-Non-electrical machinery(SITC divisions 72,73,74)of which,72-Machinery specialized for particular industries73-Metal working machinery74-General industrial machinery and equipment,not elsewhere specified and machine parts,not elsewhere specified-Electrical machinery(SITC division 77 minus group 776 and subgroup 7783)of which,77-Electrical machinery,apparatus and appliances,not elsewhere specified and electrical parts thereof minus776-Thermionic,cold cathode or photo-cathode valves and tubes7783-Electrical equipment,not elsewhere specified,for internal combustion engines and vehicles;and parts thereof(v)Textiles(SITC division 65)(vi)Clothing(SITC division 84)(vii)Other manufactures(SITC divisions 81,82,83,85,87,88,89 excluding group 891)of which,-Personal and household goods(SITC divisions 82,83 and 85)of which,82-Furniture and parts thereof,bedding,mattresses,mattress supports,cushions and similar stuffed furnishings83-Travel goods,handbags and similar containers85-Footwear-Scientific and controlling instruments(SITC division 87)-Miscellaneous manufactures(SITC divisions 81,88 and 89 minus group 891)of which,81-Prefabricated buildings,sanitary plumbing,heating and lighting fixtures and fittings,not elsewhere specified88-Photographic apparatus,equipment and supplies and optical goods,not elsewhere specified;watches and clocks89-Miscellaneous manufactured articles,not elsewhere specifiedWorld Trade Statistical Review 2022 44recorded in the balance of payments statistics compiled according to BPM6;further,if the goods are sold to a third economy after processing,then the value of the goods(including the value of processing)is recorded as an export of the economy of the owner and an import of the third economy;the value of the processing is recorded as an export of services of the processing economy and an import of services of the economy of the owner.Differences between BOP(BPM6)and national accounts statistics and IMTS can be found in the International Merchandise Trade Statistics:Compilers Manual,Revision 1(IMTS 2010-CM),Chapter XXIV Section B Goods to be recorded differently in IMTS and BPM6/national accounts(p250).(http:/unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/publications/seriesf_87Rev1_e_cover.pdf)Refer to Table 11.1(p177)in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Compilation Guide(BPM6 Compilation Guide(imf.org)Merchandise trade statistics serve as an input for the compilation of the goods account in the balance of payments(BOP)and the rest of the world account in the System of National Accounts(SNA).The compilation of international merchandise trade statistics(IMTS)relies principally on customs records complemented,as appropriate,by additional sources to enhance their coverage(for instance,to include electricity,or trade in vessels and aircrafts).These statistics essentially reflect the physical movement of goods across borders,while National Accounts and BOP statistics record transactions that involve change in ownership.Goods for processing with or without change of ownership are recorded in merchandise statistics when they enter or leave the economic territory,irrespective of whether a change in ownership takes place.However,goods supplied to another economy for processing without a change of ownership and returned to the economy of the owner after processing are not C.Other products:commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere(including gold);arms and ammunition(SITC section 9 and group 891)9-Commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere in SITC891-Arms and AmmunitionD.Intermediate products include all parts and accessories as well as industrial primary and processed intermediate products.The“fuels and lubricants”category(BEC chapter 3)was excluded.BEC headings 42,53,111,121,21,22Merchandise trade and the goods account in balance of payments statistics Trade in commercial services between residents and non-residents of an economy(BPM6)Depending on the location of the supplier and the consumer,the General Agreement on Trade in Services(GATS)defines four modes of supply.In addition to the cross-border supply(mode 1),where both the supplier and the consumer remain in their respective home territories,GATS also covers cases where consumers are outside their home territory to consume services(mode 2 consumption abroad),or where service suppliers are in the territory of the consumers to provide their services,whether by establishing affiliates through direct investment abroad(mode 3 commercial presence),or through the presence of natural persons(mode 4).An economys Balance of Payments,namely the services account,can be used to derive estimates covering trade in commercial services for modes 1,2 and 4.The Balance of Payments does however not include most of the information on services supplied through foreign affiliates that is required to estimate the size of mode 3.A framework for collecting these data,the“Foreign Affiliates Statistics(FATS)”was adopted by the international statistical community for the first time in 2002,and then further developed in 2010.Exports(credits or receipts)and imports(debits or payments)of commercial services are included in balance of payments statistics,in conformity with the concepts,definitions and classification of the sixth(2009)edition of the IMF Balance of Trade in commercial services between residents and non-residents of an economy(BPM6),exports and importsPayments and International Investment Position Manual(BPM6)as well as the 2010 edition of the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services(MSITS 2010).Chapter IV:Composition,definitions&methodology45In the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual,the current account is subdivided into goods,services(including government goods and services,n.i.e.),primary income,and secondary income.Commercial services comprise all servicescategories except government goods and services,n.i.e.Commercial services are sub-divided into goods-related services,transport,travel,and other commercial services.The BPM6 contains the following 12 standard services components:(1)Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(2)Maintenance and repair services,n.i.e.(3)Transport(4)Travel(5)Construction(6)Insurance and pension services(7)Financial services(8)Charges for the use of intellectual property,n.i.e.(9)Telecommunications,computer and information services(10)Other business services(11)Personal,cultural and recreational services(12)Government goods and services,n.i.e.Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others cover processing,assembly,labelling,packing,and similar activities undertaken by enterprises that do not own the goods concerned and are paid a fee by the owner.Only the fee charged by the processor,which may cover the cost of materials purchased,is included under this item.Examples include oil refining,liquefaction of natural gas,assembly of clothing and electronics,assembly,labelling,and packing.Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.cover maintenance and repair work by residents on goods that are owned by non-residents(and vice versa).The repairs may be performed at the site of the repairer or elsewhere.The value recorded for maintenance and repairs is the value of the work done not the gross value of the goods before and after repairs.Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others and Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.form a new WTO aggregate named“Goods-related services”.Transport is the process of carriage of people and objects from one location to another as well as related supporting and auxiliary services.Transport can be classified according to:(i)mode of transport,namely,sea,air,or other(“other”may be further broken down into rail,road,internal waterway,pipeline,and space transport as well as electricity transmission);and(ii)what is carried passengers or freight.Also included are postal and courier services.Travel credits cover goods and services for own use or to give away acquired by non-residents from an economy during visits to that economy.Travel debits cover goods and services for own use or to give away acquired from other economies by residents of the reporting economy during visits to these other economies.The most common goods and services covered are lodging,food and beverages,entertainment and Definition of commercial services in the Balance of Paymentstransportation(within the economy visited),gifts and souvenirs.Travel is further subdivided into:(i)personal travel and(ii)business travel.The aggregate category Other commercial services corresponds to the following components defined in BPM6:Construction covers the creation,renovation,repair,or extension of fixed assets in the form of buildings,land improvements of an engineering nature,and other similar engineering constructions such as roads,bridges,dams,and so forth.It also includes related installation and assembly work,site preparation,specialized services such as painting,plumbing,and demolition,and management of construction projects.Construction also covers the acquisition of goods and services by the enterprises undertaking construction work from the economy of location of the construction work.Construction can be divided into(i)construction abroad and(ii)construction in the compiling economy.Insurance and pension services include services of providing life insurance and annuities,nonlife insurance,reinsurance,freight insurance,pensions,standardized guarantees,and auxiliary services to insurance,pension schemes,and standardized guarantee schemes.Financial services cover financial intermediary and auxiliary services,except insurance and pension fund services,provided by banks and other financial corporations.They include deposit taking and lending,letters of credit,credit card services,commissions and charges related to financial leasing,factoring,underwriting,and clearing of payments.Also included are financial advisory services,custody of financial assets or bullion,financial asset management,monitoring services,liquidity provision services,risk assumption services other than insurance,merger and acquisition services,credit rating services,stock exchange services,and trust services.Financial services may be charged for by:(i)explicit charges;(ii)margins on buying and selling transactions;(iii)asset management costs deducted from property income receivable in the case of asset-holding entities;or(iv)margins between interest payable and the reference rate on loans and deposits(called financial intermediation service charges indirectly measured FISIM).World Trade Statistical Review 2022 46Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.include:(i)Charges for the use of proprietary rights(such as patents,trademarks,copyrights,industrial processes and designs including trade secrets,franchises);these rights can arise from research and development,as well as from marketing;and(ii)Charges for licenses to reproduce or distribute(or both)intellectual property embodied in produced originals or prototypes(such as copyrights on books and manuscripts,computer software,cinematographic works,and sound recordings)and related rights(such as for live performances and television,cable,or satellite broadcast).For the purpose of this report,all references to intellectual property(IP)services or intellectual property related services refer only to“Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.”.Telecommunications,computer and information services cover(i)Telecommunications services,which encompass the broadcast or transmission of sound,images,data,or other information by telephone,telex,telegram,radio and television cable transmission,radio and television satellite,electronic mail,facsimile,and so forth,including business network services,teleconferencing,and support services;(ii)Computer services consisting of hardware-and software-related services and data processing services;(iii)Information services including news agency services,such as the provision of news,photographs,and feature articles to the media as well as database services.Other business services include(i)Research and development services,(ii)Professional and management consulting services and(iii)Technical,trade-related and other business services.(i)Research and development services consist of services that are associated with basic and applied research,and experimental development of new products and processes.(ii)Professional and management consulting services include(a)legal services,accounting,management consulting,managerial services,and public relations services;and(b)advertising,market research,and public opinion polling services.(iii)Technical,trade-related,and other business services include:(a)architectural,engineering,and other technical services;(b)waste treatment and depollution,agricultural,and mining services;(c)operating leasing services;(d)trade-related services;and(e)other business services n.i.e.Personal,cultural,and recreational services consist of(i)Audio-visual and related services and(ii)other personal,cultural,and recreational services.(i)Audio-visual and related services cover services and fees related to the production of motion pictures(on film,videotape,disk,or transmitted electronically,etc.),radio and television programs(live or on tape),and musical recordings.(ii)Other personal,cultural,and recreational services include(a)health services,(b)education services,(c)heritage and recreational services,and(d)other personal services.Health services as well as education services are provided remotely or on-site.Data on exports and imports of total services(including government goods and services n.i.e),other services(including government goods and services n.i.e)as well as government goods and services n.i.e.are available as memorandum items in the WTO DATA Portal.Memo items:Total services(Commercial services plus Government goods and services n.i.e)Other services(Other commercial services plus Government goods and services n.i.e)Government goods and services n.i.eGovernment goods and services n.i.e.cover:(a)goods and services supplied by and to enclaves,such as embassies,military bases,and international organizations;(b)goods and services acquired from the host economy by diplomats,consular staff,and military personnel located abroad and their dependents;(c)services supplied by and to governments and not included in other categories of services.Chapter IV:Composition,definitions&methodology47The new statistical framework on Foreign Affiliates Statistics(FATS)is developed in the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services 2010,the OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment and the OECD Handbook on Economic Globalisation Indicators.The statistical framework covers both goods and services producing enterprises.It analyses the universe of affiliates for which foreign investors own more than 50 per cent of the voting power or equity interest.Depending on the compilers view,one can distinguish inward FATS,that is,activities of foreign-owned affiliates in the compiling economy,or,outward FATS,that is,foreign affiliates of the compiling economy active abroad.Variables such as sales,value added,number of employees,etc.are used to describe the affiliates activities.These variables are broken down by country of origin or destination of investments and also by type of primary activity of the affiliates.The United States also provide a breakdown into total supply of goods and total supply of services products.In the case of services industries the concept of supply(or output)is based on measures that better capture service output(i.e.the margin).This mainly has an impact on the measurement of activities of wholesalers and retailers,insurers and financial intermediaries.From a GATS perspective,the size of mode 3 in a given country can be approximated through the value of the output(or supply)of services by foreign-owned affiliates.In the absence of data on output,sales of services are used.FATS are currently available mainly for OECD and a small number of non-OECD economies.Given the recent development of these statistics,comparability and coverage of individual economy data may not always be complete.Availability of detailed data and long-time series varies considerably between economies.Annual changesThroughout this report,average annual percentage changes are analogous to compound interest rates.In calculating the average annual rate of change between 2010 and 2020,for example,data for calendar year 2010 were taken as the starting point,and data for calendar year 2020 as the end point.World merchandise trade indicesThe volume indices and the deflators(i.e.price indices or unit values)are taken from a range of different international and national sources.The reported deflators and volume indices may not always be available for the most recent years or may differ in product coverage from the corresponding value indices.Aggregation of the indices to obtain a world total is a two-tier process.First,export and import deflators from national and international sources are complemented with WTO and UNCTAD estimates for missing data.They are then aggregated to obtain regional totals.The volume index for each region is obtained by dividing the respective trade value index for each region by the corresponding regional deflator.Second,the total world merchandise volume index is obtained by deflating the world trade value with the aggregate of regional deflators.Throughout the aggregation process trade values of the previous year are used as weights.World gross domestic productWorld GDP growth is estimated as a weighted average of individual economies real GDP growth.The weights used are shares of the economies previous year GDP at 2005 constant prices converted to dollars at market exchange rates.Foreign Affiliates StatisticsOther definitions and methodsWhile many economies worldwide have fully implemented the BPM6 for the recording of their Balance of Payments services transactions,some are still compiling their statistics according to the BPM5 methodology.Consequently,comparability and coverage of data may not always be complete.It should be noted in particular that world and regional estimates of trade in new services items such as Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others and Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.may be underestimated,as some economies do not report these items yet.While the coverage and comparability of trade in services statistics have improved significantly over the years,the data remain subject to recognized limitations,such as i)certain countries do not collect figures for all items,ii)statistically capturing some services items remains difficult(more notably on the imports side),iii)data can be reported on a net rather than gross basis,iv)certain transactions may prove complex to classify appropriately,v)different sources,data collection and estimation methods lead to diverse results,etc.These distortions are more significant on detailed items levels and may lead to considerable asymmetries among countries reported trade flows by origin and destination.In June 2020,the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA)has revised and expanded its statistics on trade in services for 1999 onwards.As a result,the classification of certain services transactions,such as audiovisual services,was amended to align them with international statistical guidelines.Thus,statistics contained in the 2020 and later editions are not comparable with earlier reports.For more information,consult https:/apps.bea.gov/scb/2020/04-april/0420-international-annual-revision-preview.htm#trade-services.Statistics on trade in services for the aggregate“European Union”reflect the sum of trade of individual member countries.Coverage and comparabilityWorld Trade Statistical Review 2022 48Merchandise trade statistics of the European UnionBeginning with the 2002 report,EU data compiled according to national statistical practices have been replaced,starting 1993,with data compiled by Eurostat in accordance with EU legislation.The concepts and definitions adopted by the EU are in line with the United Nations International Trade Statistics,Concepts and Definitions,Series M,N 52,Revision 3.As a result,the conceptual differences between EU member states data have been substantially reduced.Moreover,for the EU as a whole,Eurostat data are more timely than the previous source,thus reducing substantially the amount of estimation included in the EU aggregate.Since January 1993,statistics on the trade between the member states of the EU have been collected through the“Intrastat”system(see GATT 1994,International Trade Trends and Statistics).The coverage of this system,which relies on reports submitted by firms for transactions above a minimum value,is not as wide as the previous one,which was based on customs declarations.This is particularly noticeable on the import side.For example,prior to the adoption of the Intrastat system,reported intra-EU imports(c.i.f.)closely matched reported intra-EU exports(f.o.b.).As of 2012,data on merchandise trade values for Switzerland includes trade in non-monetary gold.Merchandise trade flows between the European Union member States include trade associated with fraudulent VAT declaration,which concerns mainly office and telecommunications equipment.Specific notes for selected economiesMajor breaks in data continuity of merchandise tradeThe use of official exchange rates which are not market-based for some major economies,together with the fluctuations of the United States dollar vis-vis major currencies,can have a significant impact on the weighting pattern.The increasing use of weights based on purchasing power parities(PPP)by other international organizations is meant to attenuate“anomalies”linked to these factors.In a period of widely diverging growth rates among countries and regions,the choice of the weighting pattern can have a marked influence on the global growth estimate.For the 2000-2011 period,global growth estimates based on PPP-weights indicate a significantly faster growth than estimates using weights based on GDP data measured at market exchange rates.This is because of differences in the two weighting patterns.Re-exports and re-importsUnder the system of general trade adopted in this report,re-exports are included in total merchandise trade.However,in the case of Hong Kong,China,the magnitude of its reexports,if included in regional or world aggregates,would adversely affect the analytical value of the statistics by introducing a significant element of double counting.Therefore,Hong Kong,Chinas re-exports are excluded from the world and Asia(unless otherwise indicated);only Hong Kong,Chinas domestic exports and retained imports are included in the totals.Chapter IV:Composition,definitions&methodology49Statistical sourcesMost frequently used international data sources are:EIU,The Economist Intelligence UnitEUROSTAT,Comext and on-line databasesFAO,FAOSTAT Agriculture databaseFAO,Production YearbookIMF,Balance of Payments StatisticsIMF,International Financial StatisticsIMF,World Economic Outlook databaseOECD,Main Economic IndicatorsOECD,Measuring Globalisation:The Role of Multinationals in OECD EconomiesOECD,Monthly Statistics of International TradeOECD,National AccountsOECD,Statistics on International Trade in ServicesOECD/IEA,Energy Prices&TaxesTDM,Trade Data MonitorUNECE,Economic Survey of EuropeUNECLAC,Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the CaribbeanUNIDO,National Accounts Statistics DatabaseUNSD,Comtrade database UNSD,International Trade Statistics YearbookUNSD,Monthly Bulletin of StatisticsWorld Bank,World Development IndicatorsFigures for total merchandise trade are largely derived from national sources,supplemented by international databases and Secretariat estimates.Data on merchandise trade by product are mainly obtained from Eurostats Comext database,the Trade Data Monitor and UNSDs Comtrade database.Some inconsistencies in the aggregate export and import data for the same country or territory between sources are inevitable.These can be attributed to the use of different systems of recording trade,to the way in which data sources have converted data expressed in national currencies into dollars,and different implementation of historical revisions.Statistics on trade in commercial services are mainly drawn from the IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and the Trade in Services by Partner Country dataset of the OECD.Data for European Union members are drawn from Eurostats on-line database.European Union figures for partner World are the aggregates of its 27 members(per 2020 membership)country data.European Union intra-trade and extra-trade are the aggregated statistics,based on the quarterly BOP data set,published by Eurostat,and may not correspond to total EU aggregates,which are based on annual statistics of the individual countries.For other economies that do not report to the IMF(e.g.,Chinese Taipei)data are drawn from national sources.Estimations for missing data are mainly based on national statistics.Acknowledgements are due to the Food and Agriculture Organization,the International Monetary Fund,the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,the Statistical Office of the European Communities,the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe,the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,the United Nations Statistics Division,the United Nations Industrial Development Organization,the World Intellectual Property Organization and the World Bank whose assistance in supplying advance information has greatly facilitated the work of the Secretariat.Acknowledgements are also due to national institutions for providing advance statistics.World Trade Statistical Review 2022 50ACPAfrican,Caribbean and Pacific Group of StatesAfCFTAAfrican Continental Free Trade AreaASEANAssociation of South-East Asian NationsAFTA ASEANFree Trade AreaBOPBalance of PaymentsBPM6Balance of Payments Manual,sixth editionCACMCentral American Common MarketCARICOMCaribbean Common MarketCEMACEconomic and Monetary Community of Central AfricaCISCommonwealth of Independent States,including associate and former member statesCOMESACommon Market for Eastern and Southern AfricaECOWASEconomic Community of West African StatesEFTAEuropean Free Trade AssociationEUEuropean UnionEUROSTATStatistical Office of the European CommunitiesFAOFood and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsFATSForeign Affiliates StatisticsFDIForeign Direct InvestmentGCCGulf Co-operation CouncilGDPGross Domestic ProductGNPGross National ProductHSHarmonized Commodity Description and Coding SystemIEAInternational Energy AgencyIMFInternational Monetary FundITCInternational Trade CentreISICInternational Standard Industrial ClassificationLDCsLeast-developed countriesMERCOSURSouthern Common MarketNAFTANorth American Free Trade AgreementOECDOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPAPacific AllianceSAARCSouth Asian Association for Regional Co-operationSADCSouth African Development CommunitySAFTASouth Asian Free Trade AreaSITCStandard International Trade ClassificationTDMTrade Data MonitorWAEMUWest African Economic and Monetary UnionUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECLACUnited Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the CaribbeanUNCTADUnited Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNIDOUnited Nations Industrial Development OrganizationUNSDUnited Nations Statistics DivisionThe following symbols are used in this publication:.not available or growth rates exceeding 500%0 figure is zero or became zero due to rounding-not applicableUS$United States dollarsQ1,Q2,Q3,Q4 1st quarter,2nd quarter,3rd quarter,4th quarterI break in comparability of data series.Data after the symbol do not form a consistent series with those from earlier years.Billion means one thousand million.Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.Unless otherwise indicated,(i)all value figures are expressed in U.S.dollars;(ii)trade figures include the intra-trade of free trade areas,customs unions,geographical and other groups;(iii)merchandise trade figures are on a customs basis and(iv)merchandise exports are f.o.b.and merchandise imports are c.i.f.Data for the latest year are provisional.The statistical data in this publication are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant statistical authorities.In line with the practice of the WTO Secretariat,this publication uses the names of members as listed in the latest revision to document WT/INF/43.References to other geographical territories and groupings are based solely on terms provided to the WTO Secretariat by WTO members and observers or terms used by relevant international organizations.The use of such data and terms does not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status of any country or territory,or the delimitation of its frontiers,or sovereignty.The colours,boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps in this publication do not imply any judgment,official endorsement or acceptance by the WTO Secretariat as to the legal status or frontier of any territory,or the rights and obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements.References and data relating to territories that are not WTO members or observers in their own right do not amount to an endorsement as to the WTO status,if any,of such territories.Closing date 31 August 2022c.i.f.cost,insurance and freightf.o.b.free on boardn.e.s.not elsewhere specifiedn.i.e.not included elsewhereAbbreviations and symbolsChapter IV:Composition,definitions&methodology51
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service FreshApples,Grapes,andPears:WorldMarketsandTradeApproved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription,click here to register:https:/December 2022 FRESHAPPLESWorldproductionfor2022/23isforecastdown3.9millionmetrictons(tons)to78.8millionasaweatheraffectedcropinChinamorethanoffsetsgainsintheEuropeanUnionandTurkey.Exportsareprojecteddown300,000tonsto6.3milliononlowersuppliesinChinaandSouthAfrica.Chinaproductionisforecastdown5.0milliontonsto41.0millionashightemperaturesduringbloomreducedfruitsetinthetopproducingprovincesofShaanxiandShandong.Acreageisalsocontractingaslowmarketreturnsandgovernmentencouragementofgrainproductionpromptssomefarmerstocutdowntrees.Somegrowersarereplacingoldertreeswithnewvarieties,butoutputfromthesenewplantingsisnotyetsufficienttooffsetdeclinesstemmingfromtreeremovals.Exportsareexpectedtodrop20percentto800,000tonsasreducedsuppliesshrinkshipmentstoseveralkeymarkets,especiallyIndonesiaandBangladesh.Importsareprojectedup25,000tonsto100,000ongreatershipmentsfromNewZealand.EUproductionisforecastup500,000tonsto12.8millionasFranceandItalyreboundfromlastyearsfrostdamageandleadingproducerPolandcontinuestoboostoutput.Greatersuppliesareanticipatedtoliftexports100,000tonsto1.3millionandraiseconsumptionnearly400,000tonsto11.8million.Risingcoldstoragecostsareexpectedtodivertalargeramountoflowervaluefruittoprocessingratherthanholdingforexports.Importsareprojecteddown11,000tonsto320,000asgreaterdomesticsuppliesdampenimportdemand.U.S.productionisexpectedtorise158,000tonsto4.5million,aslightreversalafterbacktobackannualdeclines,asabumpercropinMichiganmorethanoffsetslossesinWashingtonfromawet,windy,andcoldspring.USDAsNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)surveyedindustryandpublishedaU.S.forecastforappleproductionintheAugust2022CropProductionreport.Despitehighersupplies,exportsareforecastdown53,000tonsto670,000forathirdstraightyearofdeclinesonreducedWashingtonoutput.Importsareexpectedup10,000tonsto115,000onhighershipmentsfromNewZealand.SummerHeatWiltsChinaAppleProduction0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.02017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23MillionMetricTonsProductionForecast Chileproductionisforecastflatat1.0milliontonsashigheryieldsfromincreasedrainandgreaterchillhoursisexpectedtooffsetlossesfromreducedplantedarea.Inlinewithproduction,exportsareexpectedtoremainnearlyunchangedat605,000tonsonsteadyshipmentstotopmarketsEuropeanUnion,Colombia,andUnitedStates.Mexicoproductionisexpectedtoreach640,000tons,aslightrisefollowing2yearsofdeclineastreescontinuetorecoverfromlimitedchillhoursandlastyearsdrought.PlantedareacontinuestocontractpressuredbysuburbandevelopmentwhilesomegrowersinthetopproducingstatesofChihuahuaandCoahuilaaretrialingalternativecropsthataremoreprofitableandrequirelesswater,includinggrapesandfigs.Importsareforecastunchangedat265,000tonsasdemandstagnatesamidstrisinginflationandreducedconsumerpurchasingpower.NewZealandproductionisforecastup60,000tons573,000asthereturnofoverseasworkersundertheRecognizedSeasonalEmployersschemesignificantlyreducesthevolumeofunpickedapples,includingapplesforprocessing,aidingarecoverytopreCOVID19levels.Thoughexpansionofplantedareaslowedthepast2yearsduringCOVID19,improvementstoorchardscontinued.Replantingoldertreeswithnewandmoreprofitablevarietiesisongoing,withtheindustryincorporatingmoderntrellisingsystemsandallowancesforintegrationoffutureadvancementssuchasroboticpickers.Higheroutputisexpectedtoboostexports45,000tonsto385,000andliftconsumptionto188,000.SouthAfricaproductionisexpectedtocontract70,000tonsto1.1milliononloweryieldfollowing2consecutiveyearsofrecordharvests.Inaddition,plantedareaisexpectedtostagnateonlimitedinvestmentsasgrowerprofitsshrinkonrisinginputcostsandreducedreturns.Shippingdelaysatdomesticportsarecompromisingfruitqualityandthusfruitvalue.Exportsareforecastdown65,000tonsto560,000onreducedsuppliesanddampeningdemandfromtopmarketUnitedKingdomduetoinflation.Turkeyproductionisprojectedup277,000tonsto4.8millionongoodgrowingconditionsandasnewhighyieldtreescomeintoproduction.Greatersuppliesincombinationwithimprovingqualityareexpectedtoboostexports22,000tonstoarecord420,000,makingTurkeyoneofonlythreetop10exportersexpectedtoshowpositiveexportgrowthin2022/23.Indiaproductionisforecastupslightlyto2.4milliontonsassufficientmonsoonrainduringfloweringandfruitsetimprovedyield.Highersuppliesareexpectedtoeaseimportslowerto430,000tons,onlyaslightreductionbelowlastyearsrecordasdomesticsuppliescontinuetocompetewithimports.Thedomesticindustrycontinuestobedisadvantagedbyaninsufficientcoldchainnetworkandlimiteddistributionoutsidethenorthernregion.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 December 2022Global Market Analysis KeyRevisionsto2021/22:Worldproductionisraised1.1milliontonsto82.6million.Belarusisraised196,000tonsto532,700onrevisedFAOdata.Brazilislowered239,700tonsto983,300onrevisedFAOdata.Chinaisraised973,400tonsto46.0milliononrevisedofficialdata.EuropeanUnionisraised400,300tonsto12.3milliononrevisedofficialdata.Mexicoisreduced146,000tonsto633,800duetogrowingconditionsaffectingoutput.Moldovaisreduced130,500tonsto480,400onrevisedFAOdata.Turkeyisraised207,000tonsto4.5milliononrevisedofficialdata.Worldimportsareraised160,900tonsto6.5million.Brazilisraised60,000tonsto120,000onsurgingshipmentsfromChile.Russiaisraised100,700tonsto580,700onhigherthanexpectedshipmentsfromMoldovaandTurkey.Worldexportsareraised35,000tonsto6.6million.Chinaislowered32,900tonsto997,100onadropinshipmentstoBurma.EuropeanUnionisraised79,300tonsto1.1millionongreatershipmentstoIndia.Moldovaisraised33,300tonsto253,300ongreatershipmentstoRussia.NewZealandisreduced35,000tonsto340,000onlowerthanexpectedyieldandlaborshortageslimitingharvestedfruit.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 December 2022Global Market Analysis PeruForecasttoBecomeWorldsTopExporterChilespositionastheworldstoptablegrapeexporterisexpectedtobechallengedbyPeruin2022/23.Chilehasbeentheleadingexporterfordecades,butin2022/23,PeruisforecasttoexceedChileinproductionforthesecondtimein3years,andinexportsforthefirsttime.Chileproductionisforecastdownto737,000metrictons,decliningfortheeighthtimein10yearsincontrasttoPeruproductionwhichhasnotdeclinedsinceatleast2001/02andisprojectedupagainin2022/23at766,000tons.Chileexportsareprojecteddownto555,000tonsonreducedsupplieswhilePerusrisingoutputisexpectedtoboostexportsto585,000,edgingoutChiletobecometheworldstopexporter.ChileandPeruareexportdependent,withbothcountriesexpectedtoexportatleast75percentofproductionin2022/23.Fromashippingperiodperspective,theirexportsaremostlycomplementary.PeruentersthemarketfirstwiththebulkofshipmentstraditionallyoccurringNovemberthroughFebruary,whilethemajorityofChilesexportsoccurFebruarythroughMay.However,Perusincreasingproductioncontinuestoexpand,includingintomonthswhereitsshipmentsoverlapwithChile.SevenofPerustop10marketsarealsotop10marketsforChile,andbothhavetheUnitedStatesastheirtopdestinationthoughChilesmarketshareiseroding.Since2017/18,ChilesmarketshareintheUnitedStateshasdroppedfrom57to41percentwhilePerushasgrownfrom19to31percent.Chilesgrowershavefacedmultiplehurdlesduringthelast10years,includingdamagingfloods,freezes,anddrought.Thishasnotonlyreducedoutputbutresultedinlostacreageasgrowersswitchsomeacreagetomoreprofitablecrops,includinginthetopgrowingregions.InPeruTableGrapeExportsForecasttoSurpassChile1002003004005006007008009002012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23ThousandMetricTonsChilePeruForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 December 2022Global Market Analysis Valparaiso,Chilesleadingtablegrapeproducer,walnutsandcitrushavereplacedsometablegrapeacreage,whilewalnutsandcherrieshavereplacedsomeacreageinthesecondlargestproducerregionofOHiggins.Incontrast,Perusproductionislocatedalongdrycoastlinewithplentifulwatersuppliedthroughprecisionirrigation,andtablegrapeacreagecontinuestorise.Toboostoutputandsatisfymarketdemand,Chileangrowersaretransitioningvineyardstonewervarieties,andoutputfromthosevinesisincreasinglycomingintoproductionandmakingupagreatershareofexportedproduct.ItremainstobeseenifChilestransitionwillliftproductionandexportstopreviousheightstomakethemtheleadingworldexporteronceagain.FRESHTABLEGRAPESWorldproductionfor2022/23isforecastup1.2milliontonsto27.4millionasgoodgrowingconditionsboostoutputinChinaandTurkey,offsettinglossesinChileandIndia.Despitehighersupplies,importsareexpectedtoeaseslightlyto3.5milliontonsonreduceddemandfromtheEuropeanUnionandChina.Chinaproductionisprojectedup620,000tonsto12.6millionasgoodgrowingconditionsimproveyieldandquality.PlantedareaisexpectedtoremainstablewhilesomeproductionisshiftingfromtraditionalgrapeareastosouthernprovincessuchasYunnan.Exportsareexpectedtoreboundongreatersupplies,rising24,000tonsto375,000,withhighershipmentsespeciallytoVietnamandThailand.Importsareforecasttocontinuetheirdecline,slipping11,000tonsto170,000asimprovedproductionpractices,newervarieties,andadoptionofcultivationtechnologiesandgreenhouseproductionraiseoutputandimprovesquality,reducingimportdemand.Turkeyproductionisforecasttorecoverfromlastyearsfrostdamage,surging20percenttoarecord2.2milliontonsonfavorablegrowingconditions.Exportsareprojectedupforafourthstraightyearasgreatersuppliesandcontinuedoverseasdemandareexpectedtoliftexportstoanearrecord270,000tons.EUproductionisprojectedtoriseforasecondstraightyear,up161,000tonsto1.6millionmostlyduetogoodfruitsetinItaly,aswellasnewseedlessvarietiescomingintoproductioninItaly,Spain,andPortugal.Despitehighersupplies,exportsareforecastdown13,000tonsto501001502002503003504000.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0ThousandMetrictonsMillionMetricTonsProductionConsumptionImportsChinasTableGrapeImportsContinueDeclineasRisingProductionFeedsConsumptionForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 December 2022Global Market Analysis 160,000andconsumptionupto1.9millionashighfreightandtransportationcostsencouragemoreintraEUtrade.Importsareprojecteddown77,000tonsto520,000onlowerdemandandreducedoutputinsomeSouthernHemispheresuppliers.U.S.productionisforecastup24,000tonsto850,000following3yearsofreducedoutput,aslightincreaseasdroughtandfrosthinderedastrongerrecoveryandgrowerscontinuetostrugglewithlaborandwateravailability.USDAsNASSsurveyedindustryandpublishedaU.S.forecastfortablegrapesproductionintheAugust2022CropProductionreport.Exportsareexpectedtobenearlyflatat255,000tonsonsustainedshipmentstotopmarkets.Importsareprojectedup32,000tonsto745,000ongreatersuppliesfromPeruandsurgingshipmentsfromChileatthebeginningoftheMayAprilmarketingyear.Peruproductionisforecastup53,000tonsto766,000oncontinuedgoodgrowingconditionsandexpandingarea.Higheroutputisexpectedtoboostexportsforafifthstraightyear,surgingnearly50,000tonsto585,000.Ifrealized,PeruwouldsurpassChiletobecometheworldstopexporter.Peruiscontinuingeffortstoexpandtheirexportmarkets,includingtoJapan,whichisthethirdlargestmarketfortheUnitedStates.PerusexportgainshavebeendrivenbyexpandingmarketpresenceintheUnitedStates,EuropeanUnion,andMexico.Chileproductionissettocontinueitslongtermdeclineafterlastyearsrebound,falling56,000tonsto737,000.Abundantrainfallisexpectedtoonlypartiallymitigatelossesfromcontinuedreducedacreageacrossallregionsasgrowerscontinuetoswitchtomoreprofitablecropssuchascherriesandwalnuts.Reducedoutputisexpectedtoslashexports53,000tonsto555,000.Indiaproductionisforecastnearlyflatat2.9milliontonsonasecondstraightyearofexcessiverainfallinSeptemberandOctober,resultingindelayedpruningandashorterharvestperiod.Combinedwithabovenormaltemperatures,highervolumesoflowerqualityfruitareexpected.Insufficientcoldchaininfrastructureanddomesticandforeigndemandisalsopromptinggrowerstoincreasinglydivertgrapestoraisinproduction,furtherreducingfreshsupplies.Exportsareexpectedtoeaseslightlyto270,000tonsonthereducedavailabilityoffreshgrapes.Australiaproductionisprojectedtorebound30,000tonstoanearrecord210,000ongoodbudburstandbunchformation,newvinescomingintoproduction,andimprovedlaboravailability.Ifrealized,thiswouldhalta2yeardeclineinwhichharvestpotentialwassignificantlyimpactedbylaborshortagesanddamagingweather.Laborisstillanticipatedtoaffecttheharvestbuttoalesserdegreethantheprior2years.Recoveringsuppliesareexpectedtospurexportsnearly30,000tonshigherto135,000.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 December 2022Global Market Analysis KeyRevisionsto2021/22:Worldproductionisraised749,000tonsto26.3million.Chinaisrevisedup780,000tonsto12.0milliononupdateddata.Namibiaproductionof45,000tonshasbeenaddedtothedatabaseasanewseriesbeginningwith2014/15.Turkeyislowered83,000tonsto1.9milliononrevisedofficialdata.Worldimportsareraised76,800tonsto3.6million.EuropeanUnionisraised37,400tonsto597,400onhigherthanexpectedshipmentsfromChile.UnitedArabEmiratesexportsof47,100tonshasbeenaddedtothedatabaseasanewseriesbeginningwith2012/13.Worldexportsarerevisedup149,000tonsto3.8million.Chileisraised28,200tonsto608,200onhigherthanexpectedexportsupplies.Indiaisraised20,100tonsto275,100ongreatershipmentstoBangladesh.Namibiaexportsof39,600tonshasbeenaddedtothedatabaseasanewseriesbeginningwith2014/15.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 December 2022Global Market Analysis FRESHPEARSWorldproductionfor2022/23isforecastdown647,000tonsto23.9millionasChinalossesfromweatherdamagemorethanoffsetrecoveringArgentinaandEUsupplies.Exportsareexpectedtoremainflatat1.8milliontonsashigherexportsuppliesinArgentinaandEuropeanUnionoffsetreducedChinashipments.Chinaproductionisprojectedtofallover1.0milliontonsto17.9millionduetoreducedfruitsetintopproducerHebeiprovinceaswellasXinjiang.FarmersinseveralHebeicountiesarealsoremovingtreestriggeredbylowprofitmarginsandanaginglaborforce,whilethelocalgovernmentisencouragingfarmerstogrowgrains.Withitsrelativelyflatland,Hebeiisalsoakeyproducerofgrain.Pearexportsareforecastdown62,000tonsto420,000onlowersupplies,whileimportsareexpectedtoedgeupto12,000tonsonnewtomarketsuppliesfromSouthAfrica,whichgainedmarketaccessinDecember2021.EUproductionisforecastup240,000tonsto2.1millionongoodgrowingconditionsintheNetherlandsandapartialrecoveryinItalyfromlastyearsdamagingfrost.WhilethehighnumberofsunnydaysintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtoresultinexcellenttastequality,droughtiscausingsmallersizing,andcombinedwithhightemperatures,couldalsoimpactstorability.However,greatersuppliesareprojectedtoliftexportsjust13,000tonsto360,000.OutputinPortugalwassignificantlyreduced,temperingEUexportstoBrazil,thethirdlargestmarket.BrazilspreferenceforPortuguesepearvarietiesmakeitunlikelythatotherEUcountrieswillreplacetheseshipments.Importsareforecast21,000tonslowerto165,000ashighersuppliesreducedemand.Argentinaproductionisexpectedtosurgeover25percentto700,000tons,reboundingtotheirhighestlevelsince2012/13ongoodgrowingconditions.However,theindustrycontinuestofacechallengesinmaintainingandimprovingorchardsasitisincreasinglydifficulttoimportneededinputs,resultinginpostponedinvestmentsincludingequipmentandreplantingorchardswithnewconsumerpreferredvarieties.Inlinewithproduction,exportsareprojectedup20percentto325,000tonsonhigheroutputandincreaseddemandfromNorthernHemispheremarkets.U.S.productionisexpectedtoslip20,000tonsto613,000asOregonoutputcontractsfollowinglastyearsrecordproductionduetoanAprilcoldsnapandrainyspring.USDAsNASSsurveyedArgentinaPearProductionReboundsFromLastYearsFrost100200300400500600700800900ThousandMetricTonsProductionForecastForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 December 2022Global Market Analysis industryandpublishedaU.S.forecastforpearproductionintheAugust2022CropProductionreport.Reducedoutputisprojectedtolowerexports11,000tonsto100,000,whileimportsareforecasttoreboundtotheirhighestlevelsince2014/15,rising11,000tonsto80,000asdiminishedsuppliesstrengthensimportdemand,particularlyforsuppliesfromArgentina.Chileproductionisprojectedtoeaseslightlyto217,000tons.Abundantrainfallandgoodgrowingconditionsinthespringareexpectedtoraiseyieldsbutnotenoughtooffsetlossesfromcontinueddecliningacreage.Exportsareexpectedtoslipto110,000tonsonloweroutput.SouthAfricaproductionisforecastdown45,000tonsto450,000onreducedyieldfollowinglastyearsrecordcrop.Acreageisexpectedtoremainflatafteradecadeofgrowthasavarietyofissues,includingrisinginputcosts,electricitydisruptions,andpoorportoperations,limitanddiscouragegrowerinvestments.Reducedsuppliesareanticipatedtolowerexports30,000tonsto250,000.KeyRevisionsto2021/22:Worldproductionisraised966,300tonsto24.5million.Chinaisraised876,000tonsto18.9milliononrevisedofficialdata.EuropeanUnionisraised116,000tonsto1.8milliononrevisedofficialdata.Worldimportsareraised41,000tonsto1.7million.Belarusisraised17,800tonsto77,800onhigherthanexpectedimportsfromtheEuropeanUnion.Russiaisraised25,800tonsto185,800ongreatershipmentsfromArgentinaandSouthAfrica.Worldexportsareraised54,800tonsto1.8million.EuropeanUnionisraised47,300tonsto347,300onhigherexportablesupplies.SouthAfricaisraised20,000tonsto280,000ongreatershipmentstotheEuropeanUnionandUnitedArabEmirates.ThenextreleaseofthispublicationwillbeonJune13,2023.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 December 2022Global Market Analysis Foradditionalinformation,pleasecontactElaineProtzmanat2027205588,orelaine.protzmanusda.govForemailsubscription,clickheretoregister:https:/Agricultural Service/USDA 10 December 2022Global Market Analysis TableGrapesTheUnitedStatesandMexicoareonaMayAprilmarketingyear.AllotherNorthernHemispherecountriesareonaJuneMaymarketingyear.SouthernHemisphereproducercountriesofArgentina,Australia,Chile,Peru,andSouthAfricaareonanOctoberSeptembermarketingyear;Brazilremainsonacalendaryearbasisindicatedasthesecondyearofthesplityear.PearsNorthernHemispherecountriesareonaJulyJunemarketingyear.SouthernHemispherecountriesareonacalendaryearindicatedasthesecondyearofthesplityear.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 December 2022Global Market AnalysisApples,Fresh:Production,Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries(1,000 Metric Tons)2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22Dec2022/23 Productionnone41,390 China33,00042,42544,06645,97341,0009,798 European Union14,81011,48011,93512,27712,7723,032 Turkey3,6003,6204,3004,4934,7705,085 United States4,4794,8524,5054,3364,4941,920 India2,3712,3702,3002,3002,3501,937 Iran2,2412,2072,2072,2072,2071,360 Russia1,6111,7791,5401,5401,5401,462 Ukraine1,1541,1151,1151,1151,115836 South Africa8949911,1641,1701,1001,330 Chile1,2101,1241,0991,0461,0407,041 Other6,4806,6196,4536,1866,37375,191 Total71,84978,58180,68382,64378,760Domestic Consumptionnone40,172 China32,27541,48743,03345,05140,3009,247 European Union13,83910,65911,17511,45911,8422,844 Turkey3,3243,4124,0134,0964,3514,212 United States3,8844,0983,8383,7183,9391,955 India2,3842,2502,4002,5772,6002,156 Russia2,3232,4552,2592,1102,0801,212 Iran1,9161,3891,2511,2991,4571,426 Ukraine1,1101,1141,1091,0661,0861,207 Brazil1,2461,0289361,0681,0431,001 Mexico7941,0179738999049,159 Other8,5289,1309,1239,0548,88074,591 Total71,62378,04080,11182,39878,482Importsnone859 Russia795763796581550249 India277194377448430307 Iraq329405406456375365 United Kingdom343320330328330394 European Union389378325331320160 Vietnam158232278300280287 Mexico24725726026626572 Egypt271253266306220245 Bangladesh188271266252215222 Canada2032051902062153,144 Other2,9033,1392,8803,0102,9456,304 Total6,1026,4176,3746,4836,145Exportsnone944 European Union1,3591,1991,0841,1491,2501,281 China8181,0421,102997800725 Iran3258189569077501,007 United States741861775723670779 Chile674660644610605449 South Africa469509589625560189 Turkey278209288398420369 New Zealand391401358340385264 Moldova251217150253220156 Serbia184206185165160492 Other5304765064214686,654 Total6,0206,5976,6356,5896,288Note:The United States and Mexico are on an August-July marketing year.All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year.Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 December 2022Global Market AnalysisGrapes,Fresh Table:Production,Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries(1,000 Metric Tons)2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22Dec2022/23 Productionnone10,500 China9,90010,80011,45011,98012,6002,800 India2,9002,2802,3002,9002,8502,109 Turkey1,9502,0502,2201,8572,2361,590 Uzbekistan1,6031,6071,6071,6071,6071,448 European Union1,5891,5481,3741,4201,5811,315 Egypt1,3501,3851,1701,4351,4801,592 Brazil1,4851,4361,4361,4361,436935 United States997905871826850623 Peru630645685713766915 Chile8357856657937371,264 Other1,1471,3161,3111,2861,27425,091 Total24,38624,75725,08926,25227,417Fresh Dom.Consumptionnone10,464 China9,87310,67711,21511,81012,3952,401 India2,3561,8031,8302,2852,2701,830 Turkey1,7711,8452,0061,5951,9661,792 European Union1,9161,8721,7651,8441,9411,572 Brazil1,4551,3941,3641,3991,4091,463 Uzbekistan1,4851,4871,4781,3831,4021,217 United States1,1991,2521,2271,2811,3401,210 Egypt1,2351,2481,0271,2731,307412 Russia307308369399362270 United Kingdom2682752692712802,217 Other2,0822,1682,2282,1962,21324,847 Total23,94824,32824,77925,73726,884Importsnone618 United States571672670713745523 European Union520501570597520387 Russia290288351380340270 United Kingdom268275269271280179 Canada179189191184190242 China262239194181170143 Thailand124131140103135101 Vietnam1001121469913551 Bangladesh486010613012081 Mexico1029198103115850 Other8938578358227413,445 Total3,3553,4143,5713,5843,491Exportsnone277 Peru388400468537585731 Chile655605526608555278 China289362428351375279 South Africa276284322336310210 India250185267275270280 Turkey179205215264270336 United States368325314258255127 Uzbekistan118120129224205196 Mexico147224207196200115 Egypt125150155170180660 Other6966806385324993,489 Total3,4903,5403,6683,7513,704Note:The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year.All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year.Southern Hemisphere producer countries of Argentina,Australia,Chile,Peru,and South Africa are on an October-September marketing year,and Brazil is on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.Some countries may include raisin-type and/or table-type grapes.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 December 2022Global Market AnalysisPears,Fresh:Production,Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries(1,000 Metric Tons)2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22Dec2022/23 Productionnone16,410 China14,00017,31417,81518,87617,8502,361 European Union2,5682,0592,3731,8432,083580 Argentina600640615557700663 United States726645593633613503 Turkey520530550530560408 South Africa413438461495450280 India300310308310312218 Russia242290247247247266 Korea,South203201133210244262 Chile252222233222217680 Other58557757958158122,631 Total20,41023,22623,90724,50423,857Domestic Consumptionnone15,875 China13,64516,70717,34518,40417,4422,096 European Union2,3051,8232,1731,6821,888621 United States654586560591593459 Turkey478479477436463470 Russia461436446432441260 Argentina291300301288375267 India288327330338342234 Korea,South176170113186214186 South Africa188212214215200257 Japan2371971971971971,725 Other1,5421,7991,6201,6661,64522,450 Total20,26523,03723,77624,43623,800Importsnone285 Russia261194241186195180 Indonesia145236196215180186 European Union157172175186165158 Brazil154138121128135133 Belarus11811911278115124 United Kingdom11810010510311087 Vietnam63133971019573 Hong Kong857681778079 United States737275698072 Mexico9284737270472 Other4264954544864841,851 Total1,6911,8181,7291,7001,709Exportsnone543 China366619480482420452 European Union420407375347360320 Argentina310340315270325222 South Africa226227247280250129 Chile132114127115110122 United States14413010911110044 Turkey425173949783 Belarus701654275532 Korea,South273119243012 Australia9997713 Other14151110121,971 Total1,7601,9591,8191,7671,766Note:Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year.Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 December 2022Global Market Analysis
A blueprint for UK Digital TradePreface 031.Executive Summary 06 2.The State of Digital Trade 14The Growth of Digital Trade 15 COVID-19 and its Impact on Digital Trade 17 Digital Protectionism 19 Trends in Digital Trade Policy 213.Digital Trade Principles 27 Data 30 Tariffs 37 Intellectual Property 40 Regulatory Cooperation 43 Trade Facilitation 484.Supporting Digital Trade 51Services 52Telecommunications 53Limitations to Liability 56Government Procurement 56Standards 59Rules of Origin 595.Digital Trade and the Environment 606.Summary of Recommendations 67Endnotes 77ContentsA blueprint for UK Digital Trade23PrefacePrefacePreface4A lot has changed in the world since the first version of this report came out.The COVID-19 pandemic has uprooted our economy and society.It has shown the essential role digital technologies play in keeping both functioning.They have kept people connected.They have also helped maintain complex international supply chains even under the greatest of strains.The pandemic though has also laid bare the stark digital divides that still exist both in the UK and across the world.Not everyone has had a stable internet connection to enable online learning.Not every business has been set up to trade online or enable their workers to work at home.It is more urgent than ever that we work to close this divide.The other major change,of course,has been the UKs exit from the European Union.After four and a half years of negotiations,the Trade and Cooperation Agreement(TCA)has now set the new terms of trade for businesses.This outcome was in doubt at many points and the successful conclusion of negotiations should be applauded.This is especially true given that the TCA includes many things that the tech sector wanted to see.While the UKs exit will see new checks and paperwork for traders,the TCA is high in its ambition for digital.Indeed,the inclusion of a digital trade chapter goes beyond the usual EU practice,marking the sectors importance to both sides.Many of the principles for the UKs digital trade policy set out below are met in the TCA.A positive obligation in favour of cross-border data flows,as well as a ban on data localisation,are welcome steps to maintain the UKs role as an important data hub.Ongoing cooperation on emerging technologies will be important to help ensure alignment and access to the UKs biggest market.A framework for cooperation on cybersecurity and the high level of access secured for telecoms are among the other important provisions to facilitate digital trade.What is Digital Trade?“Digital trade is the cross-border transfer of data,products,or services by electronic means,usually the Internet”Nigel Cory,“Explainer:Understanding Digital Trade”,Real Clear Policy,March 2019,https:/TCA may mark the end of trade negotiations but it is also the beginning of the UKs future relationship with the EU.The digital sector will continue to evolve and new technologies and business models will come to the fore.The UK and EU are going to need to continue to work together to their mutual benefit.Further afield,other countries are pushing forward with ambitious digital trade agreements.The UK needs to set its sights on joining that club of the most forward-thinking digital nations.61.Executive SummaryThe UK has been a major beneficiary of the rise of digital trade with over 67%of service exports worth 190.3 billion being digitally delivered.1 Early UK trade deals since leaving the European Union,in particular the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(CEPA),have recognised this importance and established that the UK is serious about an ambitious digital trade policy.But much as technology moves fast,so does trade policy.Already countries such as New Zealand,Australia,Singapore and Chile are moving ahead of the UK in what they are attempting to do in the digital realm.As the UK seeks to recover from COVID-19,it should continue to strive to lead the world in digital trade.The Rise of Digital Protectionism and the Global ContextWhile some countries have bold visions of a digital trading world,others have taken a protectionist turn.This stance threatens the economic growth that digital trade has brought and will increase costs for consumers and businesses.An open trading system is in dire need of champions,and the UK should be a strong defender of the importance of reducing barriers to trade,rather than splintering the digital ecosystem.This needs to be modelled both in the UKs engagement in international fora and the tone and direction of the domestic policy agenda on digital.We live in a digital world.The COVID-19 pandemic starkly demonstrated the centrality of digital technologies to our social lives and our businesses.It also showed the continuing existence of a deep digital divide both in the UK and internationally.With the pandemics substantial economic and social fallout,it is going to be ever more essential to have a policy agenda that is fit for our digital world and that includes everyone in it.A digital trade policy should be a central part of that agenda.1.Executive SummaryExecutive summary78To do this,it is going to be essential that digital trade is at the heart of the UKs trade policy in all arenas as a champion of multi-and pluri-lateralism.At the World Trade Organization(WTO),ongoing e-commerce negotiations offer the only opportunity to bring in the USA,China and the EU under the same set of rules for the digital economy.The UK should be a leader in these talks to ensure it is as inclusive and ambitious a deal as is possible.Such an agreement would help stem the tide of protectionist measures and set new standards for the digital economy.The impacts of digital trade will be felt across the world,but its opportunities are not open to all at the moment.COVID-19 has made that especially clear.It is important that the UK recognises the links between digital technologies and their potential in helping solve the UNs Sustainable Development Goals.To achieve global rules,it is essential that digital trade is inclusive to all across the world.The UK should not lose sight of the important role its development policy can play in closing the global digital divide and helping developing nations in their transition into digital economies participating in Global Value Chains.Much as digital trade will have a substantial impact on development,it will also increasingly affect other policy areas.To ensure that the UK is a leader in Digital Trade,the UK should seek to proactively engage in the wide range of international forums that deal with digital issues,including through its Presidency of the G7,and its membership of the G20 and the OECD.When negotiating trade agreements,it is essential that the UK continues to include an ambitious digital trade chapter including rules on telecommunications,that build on and go beyond newly established principles of digital trade including those established in the digital chapters of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP),the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA),and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement(DEPA).The UK should go forward with its ambition to join the CPTPP and seek to join DEPA to enter the group of ambitious countries breaking the newest ground in digital trade.Digital PrinciplesWhatever form a trade agreement takes for the UK in the future,it should be based on 14 key digital trade principles in five areas:I.Data1.Enable the cross-border flow of data without compromising data protection standards2.Prevent the forced localisation of data3.Facilitate regulatory access to data4.Prevent separate treatment for cross-border flows of financial dataData is an essential foundation to the entire global economy.Enabling the cross-border flow of data must be a part of future UK trade agreements,as should preventing the forced localisation of data.The definitions of data should include financial data,which should not be treated differently to other categories of data.Concerns around regulatory and law enforcement access can be mitigated both in domestic UK law and through international agreements which the UK should seek to join or replicate.9II.Tariffs5.Secure the expansion of the Information Technology Agreement in both geographic and product coverage6.Make the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions permanentThe re-emergence of tariffs as an offensive weapon in economic disputes is a troubling development.The UKs Digital Trade policy should seek to extend the protections offered by the WTOs Information Technology Agreement and entrench those in bilateral UK deals and in the WTO e-commerce work track.It should also discuss the next steps for the ITA,including the role that digital technologies can play for protecting the environment and mitigating climate change.It should also do all it can to protect the moratorium on digital tariffs both at the WTO level and in its agreements.To allow the imposition of customs duties on electronic transmissions would undermine a key enabler of the digital economy.III.Intellectual Property7.Prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms,or encryption keys as a condition of market access8.Support the development of AI through enabling open government data and text and data mining while respecting intellectual property rightsIntellectual property rights are an enabler of innovation.Yet some states have sought to demand intellectual property as a condition of market access.The UK should work through its trade agreements to prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms,and encryption keys.In other areas,new technology is transforming traditional notions of intellectual property.The UKs trade policy can enable the development of innovative AI by supporting the use of open government data and text and data mining.IV.Regulatory Cooperation9.Establish cooperation on the regulation of AI,fintech and other emerging technologies10.Establish cooperation on cybersecurity issues with an emphasis on a risk-based approach11.Work towards internationally interoperable digital identities 12.Use trade policy to further measures to protect online safetyWhile tariffs are an important issue for digital trade,the reality is that the primary barriers are those behind the border.Non-tariff barriers,like differing approaches to regulation,will be the main block to digital trade and the export of innovative UK technologies such as AI or fintech products.The UKs digital trade policy should look to establish cooperation between regulatory bodies,expand promising new approaches such as fintech bridges,and look to make digital identities interoperable between countries.Executive summary1011V.Trade Facilitation13.Standardise minimum de minimis thresholds to facilitate e-commerce14.Secure recognition of e-signatures and expansion of paperless tradingDigital trade policy can also play a role in facilitating the flow of other goods and services.E-commerce platforms have opened global markets in goods for SMEs.The UK should seek to standardise de minimis thresholds to help the cross-border trade of small packages.Working with international bodies and other partners,the UK should secure the recognition of e-signatures and expand paperless trading,helping to bring all aspects of trade into the 21st Century.Executive summary12Supporting Digital TradeUK free trade agreements that are built on these principles would set a new gold standard in Digital Trade.They would firmly establish data flows as an essential foundation to all trade and would break new ground in supporting innovative technologies like AI in trade agreements.But the digital trade chapter alone is not enough to support the international growth and expansion of the UK tech sector.Reducing barriers to the export of services and the movement of talent across borders are important areas,as is increasing access to telecommunications markets.The principle of limited liability has been an important part of the growth of the online economy,helping safeguard important principles of expression and protect supply chains.Governments are important buyers of technology and expanding procurement opportunities will do a lot to support the UKs thriving GovTech sector.Protecting the UKs approach to standards-setting processes will be important to maintain the UKs lead in their development.Finally,given the complexity of modern tech products and the supply chains that go into producing them,it should be an aim to include reasonable local content requirements in rules of origin.13Digital Trade and the EnvironmentIt should not be forgotten that the ability to trade digitally is dependent on billions of electronic devices and the energy required to power them.These devices are not without their environmental costs.However,digital technologies also have great potential in our actions to combat climate change.Trade policy has an important role to play in these efforts.It can help smooth the path to adoption of carbon mitigating technologies through ensuring they are tariff free and that there is regulatory cooperation in place to enable their use.As UK companies increase their efforts to disclose corporate climate impacts and emissions,provisions in trade agreements can hold our trading partners to similarly high standards.The data centre sector is an essential one to the functioning of the digital economy,as well as a highly competitive UK export,and an important factor in a climate orientated trade policy.Recent years have seen an explosion in internet traffic and data centre workloads.However,this has not been accompanied with a rise in data centre energy use thanks to much greater efficiencies in process technology and other new approaches.In addition,data centres have become key purchasers of renewable power and are ideally positioned to become anchor customers of technologies such as green hydrogen and battery storage.Digital trade policies such as enabling cross-border data flows and preventing data localisation requirements support the growth and success of the sector by allowing customers to store their data with the most energy and efficient providers compared to keeping IT functions in inefficient on-premises infrastructure.Finally,trade policy can support the transition to a circular economy and help reduce electronic waste.This is a global problem,requiring global cooperation.By encouraging regulatory cooperation and harmonisation relating to electronic waste,as well as removing barriers to the import and export of waste and scrap where there are regulatory protections in place,UK trade policy can help reduce the environmental impacts of our end-of-life technologies.The UK has a unique opportunity to set a new course in its trade policy and design its approach from the ground up.In all arenas,the UK should seek to place digital issues at the heart of its trade policies.This will be a digital century and the UK needs to have a clear vision in the digital trade policy sphere.142.The State of Digital Trade The mass adoption of personal computers,mobile phones and broadband internet,as well as the software that underpins them,defined the ICT Revolution.Now Industry 4.0 brings automation into the mix,with the industrial IoT,machine learning,additive manufacturing and autonomous robots along with other technologies already taking on a major role in innovative economies.2 If the pace of change was already quick,the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated it even further.With large parts of the economy forced to shutter and individuals told to stay home,business operations and social lives moved online.Digital connectivity proved itself to be essential to the continuing functioning of society far beyond any narrow definition of the tech sector.This much was clear even before the pandemic.Across the economy,industries are benefiting from emerging technologies and digital trade.Mining companies now expect to employ more data scientists than mining engineers3 and already use autonomous machinery extensively in their operations.4 Retail stores are deploying IoT technology to help with predictive equipment maintenance in refrigeration units and automating warehouses to fulfil orders.5 Digital transformation is present in all parts of the economy.Indeed,75%of the value created by the internet has been captured by companies in traditional industries.6The impact on the global economy by digital technologies has been huge.The UN Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD)has estimated that the value of e-commerce sales reached almost US$26 trillion in 2018,up 8%on the previous year.Of this,the vast majority(US$21 trillion)was in business-to-business(B2B)e-commerce comprising both sales over online market platforms and electronic data interchange transactions.Business-to-consumer(B2C)value increased by 16%compared to 2017,and cross-border B2C sales amounted to$404 billion.1.4 billion people made purchases The Growth of Digital Trade Digital technologies have transformed international trade.In the space of three decades,an analogue world has been wiped away by information communication technologies(ICTs).These have upended traditional goods supply chains and created entirely new industries and services through the internet which can be traded across borders with ease.2.The State of Digital Trade The State of Digital Trade1516online in 2018,a number that has likely grown significantly thanks to pandemic lockdowns.7Other elements of digital trade have also established themselves as major engines of the economy.Since 1996 the trade in the physical IT goods that the digital economy depends on has tripled to reach$1.6 trillion in 2016.8 Though hard to measure their economic impact accurately,9 data flows themselves have been estimated to have increased global GDP by$2.8 trillion in 2014.10These changes are underpinned by the globalisation of goods,services,people and ideas.When intangible goods and services,such as online banking,predictive analytics,or the designs for a 3D printed item,can flow across borders at ease,then it is important to approach digital technologies with a global mindset.11 Global Value Chains(GVCs)are now an essential component of modern trade and have seen the diffusion of intermediate services(such as design,marketing,or logistics),as well as component manufacturing,across borders.12The UK has been a pioneer and a beneficiary of this growth in digital trade.The UK is the third largest B2C market with sales worth US$266 billion,ranking only behind China and the US.13 Beyond e-commerce,recent experimental statistics from the Office for National Statistics have better measured for the first-time the trade in services actually delivered digitally.According to this new methodology,in 2018 the UK exported 190.3 billion in digitally delivered services,amounting to 67.1%of total UK services exports.In turn it imported 91.1 billion(51.7%of total UK services imports)with a trade surplus of 99.2 billion.14 While this doesnt capture all of the UKs digital trade,or digitals role in enabling other non-digital trade,these statistics nonetheless demonstrate the potential economic importance of the UKs digital trade policies.Going forward it is clear that this trade policy must be digital by default.The technologies of Industry 4.0 are essential to all sectors of the economy,are enablers of the goods trade and now a primary means of delivering services.A failure to get digital right would mean that the UK would not reap the full advantages from trade across a huge range of sectors.The State of Digital Trade17COVID-19 and its Impact on Digital TradeSince the first version of this report was published in January 2020,the COVID-19 pandemic has caused immense health,social and economic damage across the globe.The urgent need to reduce the spread of the virus led to an unprecedented shutting down of the UK.Whole sectors of the economy ceased to operate with the result that the UKs GDP shrank by a record 19.8%in the second quarter of 2020.15Without digital technologies,this drop in would have been even more.While streaming,remote working,and video conferencing have all been around for years,the pandemic saw them become the only way to conduct many types of social and business interactions.The early weeks of the pandemic saw total internet hits surge between 50%to 70%.16 Companies that had already been preparing themselves for Industry 4.0 were better able to pivot into the new reality.Those who hadnt been preparing found that they quickly had to catch up.One survey found that COVID-19 caused companies to accelerate their digital communications strategy by over 5 years in the UK,with 1 in 3 organizations dramatically increasing their budgets for digital transformation to enable that.17E-commerce has similarly seen massive growth during the pandemic as peoples shopping has been forced online.In the UK,e-commerces share of total retail sales grew from 19%in February 2020 to a peak of 32.8%in May 2020 almost a decade of market share growth in three months.18 Despite the disruption,cross-border e-commerce supply chains have held up well on the whole.Many logistics firms have maintained their services,and while there have been delays for some carriers due to lack of commercial flights,others have seen their commercial flights converted for cargo.19 This resiliency has underpinned a 63%year on year growth in cross-border e-commerce across the festive season as fresh lockdowns forced Christmas shoppers online again.20However,the move to digital services during the pandemic has also highlighted the continuing existence of a deep digital divide.As of 2018 there were still 5.3 million adults(10%of all adults)in the UK defined as internet non-users.4.3 million people in 2018 were estimated to have zero basic digital skills with a further 6.4 million adults estimated to have only limited abilities.21 The rapid shift of life online thanks to COVID-19 has left many of these people stranded,with the Lancet reporting on how“the lockdown strategies in the UK are actually increasing digital inequality”.22 Researchers from the University of Cambridge describe digital exclusion as“yet another manifestation of the profound inequality which casts in shadow over the UK”with many of the countrys most disadvantaged people set to suffer the most in the fallout from the pandemic.23The pandemic has also brought the global digital divide into stark relief.As of 2019,3.6 billion people globally still did not have access to the internet and in 40 of the 84 countries where data is available,less than half of the population has basic digital skills.24 The existence of this digital chasm has not only exacerbated inequalities during the pandemic but will weaken the ability of countries to recover from it.In many countries across the world,local economies are based on traditional SMEs restaurants,bars,corner stores and mom-and-pop shops.With business conducted face-to-face,and without the physical infrastructure needed to switch to digital,the digital divide in these countries could imperil the livelihoods of millions of people.25COVID-19 has demonstrated the power and importance of digital technologies as essential infrastructure of modern life.Digital trade has enabled business to continue,and people to still connect with others around the globe,even when much of the world has been under some form of lockdown.But COVID-19 has also laid bare the continuing existence of deep digital divides,both in the UK and across the world.We will not have as quick a recovery as is possible unless steps are taken to quickly close that.We will also not have the resiliency that digital technologies can bring unless those steps are taken.The UK should make closing the digital divide,both domestically and in developing nations,a central part of its COVID-19 recovery strategy.This strategy should include steps to provide access to digital technologies,economic development to support SMEs adopt digital technologies,and education to individuals of all ages,as well as business owners,in how to use digital technologies.The State of Digital Trade1819Digital ProtectionismA rise in digital protectionism puts the need for an effective UK digital trade policy in a starker light.Over recent years a growing number of countries have introduced measures that seek to either shelter their domestic markets from international competition or shelter their citizens from outside services by restricting trade or discriminating foreign firms.26 The OECDs Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index shows that seven G20 nations have more restrictiveness measures in place in 2018 compared to 2014,while only three countries have lowered their restrictiveness.27Digitally protectionist policies take different forms.These include measures such as,but not limited to:Web censorship Restriction of data flows(including data localisation)Tariffs on goods and intangible products Conditions for market access Forced transfer of intellectual property28The implications of these types of policies are stark.The Swedish Board of Trade has said that the rising restrictions on the movement of data“threatens to fragment the global digital economy and raise the costs of goods and services”.29 The European Centre for International Political Economy(ECIPE)has argued that a“restrictive regulatory environment for digital trade will weigh down many non-digital sectors”.30Economic analysis by ECIPE has quantified the losses that result from data localisation requirements and related data privacy and security measures that discriminate against foreign suppliers of data.It found that the impact of proposed or enacted legislation on GDP was to the tune of-1.1%in China and-1.7%in Vietnam.The impact on domestic investments by measures of data localisation was-4.2%in Brazil and-3.9%for the EU.Exports of China and Indonesia decrease by-1.7%due to loss of competitiveness.The welfare losses are substantial:up to US$63 billion for China and US$193 billion for the EU thanks to higher prices and displaced domestic demand that cannot be met by supply.31Protectionist policies can also have other effects,such as undermining internet stability and interoperability,with a growing risk that this will end in a balkanisation of isolated country specific webs.32 Reductions to internet openness can reduce technology diffusion,affect global value chains and weaken growth.33 The implications can be even more extreme when protectionism evolves in to forms of cyberwarfare,as in the case of China who has allegedly used distributed denial of service attacks and other methods to disrupt information flows and impede online access.34While China is at the forefront of implementing digitally protectionist measures,they are by no means the only country to do so.Notable recent provisions from 2018 include those by Indonesia that allow it to impose tariffs on digital products and steps by India to enact discriminatory local data storage requirements and target foreign e-commerce firms and user platforms.35 The UK itself has followed France and Italy in introducing its own digital services tax that specifically targets businesses that provide a social media service,search engine or online marketplace,and essentially acts as a non-tariff barrier to trade in these particular digital activities.36 Globalisation raises legitimate questions about the appropriate way to tax multinational corporations operating in multiple countries.As techUK has argued previously,digital services taxes directly cut across the OECD/G20 efforts to establish common approaches to taxation of multinationals and address the tax challenges arising from digitalisation.37 Indeed,the OECD has said that without a consensus-based solution there could be“a proliferation of unilateral digital services taxes and an increase in damaging tax and trade disputes,which would undermine tax certainty and investment”.Under their worst-case scenario of a global trade war triggered by these unilateral measures,“the failure to reach agreement could reduce global GDP by more than 1%annually”.38The trade war between the USA and China has further complicated the digital trade landscape.The disagreement is fuelled by a growing The State of Digital Trade2021competition between the two countries in the technologies of Industry 4.0.This has manifested in two main ways:US objections to protectionist measures implemented by the Chinese such as the forced transfer of technology,39 and from security concerns,for example around social media,an area long-dominated by US firms.40 The costs of this trade war are already immense.One September 2019 analysis estimates that it had cost the US economy nearly 300,000 jobs,another that the cost to US GDP is around 0.7%,while research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University has found that US companies lost at least US$1.7 trillion in the price of their stocks thanks to US tariffs.41 Post-Brexit,the UK has entered a world buffeted by protectionist currents and adverse trade winds.The UKs digital trade policy needs to grapple with a situation that is less open than it has been in a long time.In multilateral forums and through bilateral and regional trade agreements,it is important that the UK is a strong and consistent voice in favour of combatting protectionism which costs businesses and consumers and threatens economic growth.It should be a firm advocate of removing restrictions to trade and preventing the rise of new barriers as the global economy adapts to the digital world.Trends in Digital Trade PolicyThe UK is not charting a lone course in being an advocate of digital trade.Instead,it can build off the best practices established by other countries.Ever since Australia and Singapore concluded the first FTA to contain a dedicated e-commerce chapter in 2003,various countries have embarked on an iterative process to develop deeper commitments in the digital space.42 These initiatives in FTAs have happened in the absence of overarching rules on digital trade.Early post-Brexit agreements that the UK has negotiated,notably the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(CEPA),show an iterative approach building on these existing agreements.Other recent ground-breaking digital agreements show though that further ambition is needed to make new gold-standard agreements.Multilateral EffortsA lack of shared definitions and norms for digital trade have helped create the conditions where protectionism can spread,and FTA provisions are necessary.The rules governing international trade,as set out in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT)and the General Agreement on Trade in Services(GATS),which together are the foundational documents of the WTO,predate the commercialisation of the internet.Though GATS has provisions for telecommunication services,there are no agreed provisions for,or definitions of,digital trade.So far,efforts to update these rules to take account of the shape of the 21st century digital economy have failed.A work programme was started on e-commerce at the WTO in 1998,but aside from agreeing the renewal of the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions,it has been without notable successes.43More recent efforts have also failed to yield results.The Trade in Services Agreement(TiSA)set out to update the rules around services,with a focus on bringing in digital trade provisions.23 WTO members took part in negotiations,including the UK through the EU,but talks have been stalled since 2016.44 While it is unlikely TiSA will be revived any time soon,should talks restart then the UK should join the negotiations.A more promising avenue to update global rules is through the Joint Statement Initiative on e-commerce(JSI).Informal talks that staked out the key areas began following the 11th WTO Ministerial Conference in Buenos Aires in 2017.On the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2019,76 WTO members announced the formal start of negotiations to reach a plurilateral agreement on the“trade-related aspects of electronic commerce”.45 Notably,participating members include China as well as the USA,EU and a range of developing nations,though India is a notable omission.There are decades of multilateral inertia on digital trade and deep divides remain between China and the USA in particular.Despite this though,the JSI talks are progressing towards producing a consolidated text in time for the next WTO Ministerial Conference in 2021,a timeline slowed down by the COVID-19 pandemic.The JSI is the only forum where it is going to be possible to reach an agreement between the USA,China and the EU,even if only on parts of the digital economy.It is important the UK is an active participant in the JSI and works towards an ambitious and inclusive outcome.The State of Digital Trade22Digital Trade and DevelopmentBringing on board developing nations and ensuring it is an inclusive agreement will be key to the success of the JSI.For the agreement to have as much legitimacy as possible then it needs to be based on a wide range of WTO members.Furthermore,to be commercially significant then it will be important that it includes developing countries,who are experiencing rapid growth in internet and mobile penetration,and who are also often more protectionist in the digital realm.46As the negotiations progress,and as the UK embarks on its own trade policy,it is important that the UK recognises the links between its digital aspirations and international development.While Industry 4.0 poses challenges and opportunities to countries such as the UK,for example around the future of work,these can be magnified in the context of developing countries.There is a risk that the digital divide could increase,with developed countries adopting cutting edge technology,such as AI and robotics,while other countries lack the capital or the skill base to make use of them,thus widening global inequality.47 Worries over other pressing problems,such as food security or the effects of climate change,mean that digital issues can be seen as a distraction.2324Yet technology can play a crucial role in helping meet the UNs Sustainable Development Goals and addressing global challenges.48 The UK can play an important part in this process through its aid budget.The 2018“Digital Strategy 2018-2020:Doing Development in a Digital World”provided a foundation for the use of technology in improving digital outcomes,though is focused on internal processes.49 This work should not be lost in the transition to the combined Foreign,Commonwealth&Development Office.Building off the former Department for International Developments“Digital Strategy 2018-2020”,the UK should help support transitions into participation in GVCs and the digital economy.Furthermore,the UK should go beyond just incorporating digital into its own development practices.Instead it should be a leader in supporting developing countries enter the global digital economy.Steps to do this can include building the physical infrastructure requirements needed for participation in the digital economy,such as stable power supplies,providing data from UK sources,for example satellite imagery of soil erosion to help farmers,support the teaching of digital skills in schools,and facilitate capacity building in regulatory agencies such as secondments from the Information Commissioners.Doing this will not only support the development of recipient countries but also help enable more people to participate in value chains,eventually supporting UK digital exports.The UK should use its international development work to support developing countries entry into the global digital economy and help them establish themselves in global value chains.Digital Trade in Trade AgreementsIn the absence of global digital trade rules,many nations have worked towards establishing provisions on digital trade through bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements.As of 2017,69 FTAs included a standalone e-commerce chapter or articles dedicated to e-commerce issues,with a further 21 agreements including some kind of provision relating to issues such as paperless trading or digital rights management.Around half of the members of the WTO have signed at least one FTA including an e-commerce chapter,from a range of developed and developing countries.50 It is in these trade agreements that the UK will have the greatest opportunity to craft a leading digital trade strategy.The number of agreements that include digital provisions is growing rapidly.Recent years have seen an ambitious digital chapter included in the updated NAFTA,the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA).51 This in turn builds off the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP),an agreement between 11 developed and developing Pacific nations and which the USA participated in negotiating,but did not ultimately join.52 Up until 2020,the USMCA and CPTPP set the gold standard in digital trade provisions.53 They include clauses on crucial issues such as data flows,data localisation and the moratorium on digital tariffs,as well as being the first to include new areas such as cybersecurity and regulatory cooperation.In its first major post-Brexit trade deal,the UK-Japan Japan CEPA,54 the UK negotiated an admirably comprehensive e-commerce chapter by building on these existing agreements and the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.55 The structure closely follows the EU-Japan agreement but it goes beyond it in some areas.The new deal in particular leans heavily on clauses from CPTPP,that Japan is party to and that the UK has formally applied to join.56 These additions cover areas that techUK has identified as important for the UK tech sector in the first version of this report,including on cross-border data flows,commitment to high standards of data protection,and provisions protecting source codes.It also incorporates some language from USMCA relating to open government data.These additions will benefit the UK tech sector looking to serve the Japanese market,and compete with companies who already have similar access through CPTPP.The UK should build off the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and ensure that all future agreements also include robust digital trade chapters.While the UK-Japan CEPA represents a promising step in the evolution of the UKs digital trade policy,other recent agreements have been the ones to set new and higher bar on digital trade.The Digital Economy Partnership Agreement(DEPA)between Chile,New Zealand and Singapore,signed in June 2020,is the first digital only trade agreement.57 It has broken new ground in digital trade,complementing the multilateral efforts detailed above while going further for those countries willing to take that step.The agreement itself is open for new members to join wholesale,or for them to opt into various modules in the agreement.These modules include a number of areas that have never before formed a part of trade agreement,such as digital identities or digital inclusion.58Following shortly after DEPA,Singapore went on to sign a further Digital Economy Agreement(DEA)with Australia in August 2020.59 This agreement replaced the older e-commerce chapter in the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement.The DEA goes further than any comparable bilateral digital chapter,including provisions not only in areas covered by CPTPP but also breaks new ground in areas such asThe State of Digital Trade2526creating a safe online environment,cooperation on competition policy,and clauses on submarine telecommunication cable systems.The agreement is notably also accompanied by a number of MoUs on digital economy topics.These include on data innovation,AI,trade facilitation and cooperation on digital identity,among others.60 Given the fast-moving nature of technology and the regulatory challenges that can arise from it,these additional MoUs provide a flexible and adaptive framework to advance the interests of both countries in cooperation with each other.The UK should follow the example of the Digital Economy Agreement and utilise new gold standard digital trade provisions in future agreements,and accompany these with additional means of cooperation such as MoUs.Between them DEPA and DEA mark the cutting edge of what an ambitious digital trade policy can be.However,these agreements are not pure innovations.They instead reflect decades of commitment by the signatory countries to push the boundary of what trade agreements can do for the digital sector.Each step of that process has involved building on what has come before rather than revolutionary changes of approach.This is essential as trade policy still needs to be accessible to industry to enable them to take advantage of its provisions.As the UK establishes its own digital trade policy,it should take a similar iterative approach and seek to join other leading nations to build on and take advantage of existing best practice as well as push the envelope of an ambitious digital trade policy.The UK should go forward with its ambition to join the CPTPP and seek to accede to the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement to help establish its leadership on digital trade.Digital Trade in Other ForumsTrade agreements and the WTO are not the only forums relevant to digital trade.The growth of the digital economy has created vast new policy questions requiring international cooperation to deal with.Examples include the work of the OECD on“Going Digital”which seeks to help equip policy makers with the tools they need to deal with digital transformation,including through the development of AI principles.61 In 2019,the G20 under the presidency of Japan held the first joint Trade and Digital Economy ministerial meeting to reflect the important interlinkage between the two areas.62 In 2020,the Saudi Arabian G20 presidency continued this work by convening a G20 Digital Economy Task Force.63 Likewise,the 2019 G7 had a major focus on digital issues64 and digital technology featured heavily in the G7 Finance Ministers meeting,though in this case the momentum was not maintained into the US presidency,in part thanks to COVID-19 related postponements.65 Nevertheless,forums such as these can play a significant role in shaping the wider policy questions around digital trade.The UK should ensure it is a proactive leader in international forums such as the G20 and OECD in pushing for steps that facilitate and enable digital trade,and should utilise its Presidency of the G7 to advance these ends.The State of Digital Trade273.Digital Trade PrinciplesIt is imperative that the UK makes the most of its newly independent trade policy to chart a course as a leading digital nation,utilising it to advance its digital agenda.There are a number of areas where any international agreement can set a new bar for digital trade.This could be through a traditional FTA,i.e.a wide ranging multi-sectoral agreement that covers substantially all trade as required by the WTO.The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is an example of this.Alternatively,sector specific deals such as the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement could offer interesting new avenues to pursue digital trade with like-minded nations.Large plurilateral talks like the JSI on e-commerce are a further avenue where the UK seeks to raise the bar on digital trade and help set new global standards.Whatever form future UK agreements take,they should ensure they have strong commitments on digital trade across five key areas.In these areas,we are putting forward fourteen specific recommendations:Data1.Enable the cross-border flow of data without compromising data protection standards2.Prevent the forced localisation of data3.Facilitate regulatory access to data 4.Prevent separate treatment for cross-border flows of financial dataTariffs5.Secure the expansion of the Information Technology Agreement in both geographic and product coverage6.Make the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions permanentAs a leading digital economy,with high rates of internet penetration and use,a skilled workforce,and sophisticated academic and financial ecosystems well placed to leverage new ideas,the UK is already one of the best places in the world to establish and grow a tech company.Going forward,it is essential that the UK uses all of the tools at its disposal to cement its leadership in this space.3.Digital Trade PrinciplesDigital Trade Principles2829Intellectual Property7.Prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms,or encryption keys as a condition of market access8.Support the development of AI through enabling open government data and text and data mining while respecting intellectual property rightsRegulatory Cooperation9.Establish cooperation on the regulation of AI,fintech and other emerging technologies10.Establish cooperation on cybersecurity issues with an emphasis on a risk-based approach11.Work towards internationally interoperable digital identities 12.Use trade policy to further measures to protect online safetyTrade Facilitation13.Standardise minimum de minimis thresholds to facilitate e-commerce14.Secure recognition of e-signatures and expansion of paperless tradingDataThe global economy runs on data.Across sectors and borders,data is an essential component of innovation,productivity growth and economic expansion.The use of data in the global economy will only become more ubiquitous as technologies such as cloud computing and AI become more embedded in value chains.The extent to which the flow of data is the modern engine of global economic growth should not be underestimated.Global flows of data were estimated to have increased global GDP by US$2.8 trillion in 2014 alone-a larger contribution than was made by the trade in goods.66 Indeed,the proliferation of digital technologies has helped the growth in global services trade outstrip that in goods,67 with just the trade in services over the internet now representing more than 20%of total trade worldwide.68The global transformation of businesses and trade by the flow of data can be characterised in four ways:The use of the internet to export goods The purchase and consumption of services online The use of data collection and data analytics to allow new services,adding value to goods Data flows underpinning global value chains,opening up opportunities for participation.69 Despite the importance of data flows many countries have sought to restrict them.Recent research has shown that restrictive regulatory barriers have had“a negative and significant impact on trade in services”,both from sector-specific and economy-wide barriers.The result is that“policies restricting data flows across borders are likely to impede countries to reap the efficiency gains stemming from services imports”and that,in addition,“exports of data-intensive services would,in turn,decrease towards countries that impose strict data policies”.70 In terms of the impact on businesses,barriers to data flows can result in higher costs to store and process data-often between 30-60%more than if they were able to go outside their country.71 Restricting digital trade between countries with equivalent data protection standards can also prevent the transfer of day-to-day data needed for activities such as human resources leading to duplicative processes and incur higher compliance costs-a greater weight on smaller firms.Specific requirements that financial data should be localised adds greater costs and restricts digital banking options for one of the most data intensive sectors of all.72Digital Trade Principles301.Enable the cross-border flow of data without compromising data protection standards2.Prevent the forced localisation of data3.Facilitate regulatory access to data 4.Prevent separate treatment for cross-border flows of financial data31It is essential then to reach a sensible balance between measures that address legitimate public concerns,for example the protection of personal data or the need for regulators to access financial data,while not unduly erecting barriers to trade.In its trade negotiations the UK should seek to do this in four different ways to ensure it has a world leading digital trade policy.1.Enable the Cross-Border Flow of Data without compromising data protection standardsEnsuring that data can flow across borders is the essential bedrock of digital trade.The UK should ensure that it enables the cross-border flow of data in future trade agreements by taking five steps.Include a Data Protection FrameworkStrong and robust data protection frameworks are a crucial prerequisite to ensuring enduring public trust and support in the cross-border flow of data.Data protection is a fundamental right in UK law and the UKs trade policy should reflect this.Future UK trade agreements should ensure that all parties are encouraged to adopt or maintain a legal framework providing for the protection of personal information.These should take into account the principles set out by the General Data Protection Regulation(GDPR)and enshrined in the UK Data Protection Act 2018:Lawfulness,fairness and transparency Purpose limitation Data minimisation Accuracy Storage limitation Integrity and confidentiality(security)Accountability73Future agreements should also ensure that parties must publish clear and accessible information and guidance available online on how businesses can comply with the legal requirements of the data protection frameworks and how individuals can pursue remedies.Digital Trade Principles32Include an Onward Transfer MechanismWhere differences may arise between different data protection frameworks,it is important to ensure that there are mechanisms to allow businesses to continue to transfer personal data provided they meet the required level of protection.GDPR allows this through mechanisms such as standard contractual clauses and binding corporate rules.Future trade agreements should include provisions to oblige the existence of onward transfer mechanisms for personal data in full compliance with applicable data protection rules.Commitment to Allow the Cross-Border Flow of DataFuture UK trade agreements should include a strong commitment that parties shall not prohibit or restrict the cross-border flow of data and information.Measures that restrict it for legitimate public policy objectives would be allowed,in a manner that is consistent in all trade agreements,provided that measures are not a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on trade,and does not impose restrictions that are greater than are necessary to achieve the objective.Dispute ResolutionGiven the increasing centrality of data flows to the all sectors of the UK economy,the UK should ensure that provisions and commitments on the cross-border flow of data are subject to dispute resolution.These commitments can then be properly enforced and the UK and its businesses would have a means of redress if trade distorting measures are imposed or commitments on onward transfer not honoured.Protection of UK-EU Mutual AdequacyFinally,the UK should ensure that any commitment it makes in future trade agreements does not jeopardise a UK-EU Mutual Adequacy Agreement.75%of the UKs cross-border data flows are with EU countries and preventing any barriers to UK-EU data flows should be the UKs priority.74 The above steps should not risk a Mutual Adequacy Agreement.Japan,for example,has such an agreement with the EU and has signed up to similar commitments through its participation in CPTPP and APECs Cross-Border Privacy Rules and its key underlying concept of the Osaka Track“data free flow with trust”.3334342.Prevent the Forced Localisation of DataThe case is often made that keeping data within a countrys borders is more private and secure,both from risks of hacking and from government surveillance.However,in most cases the reverse is true and localisation requirements do not increase commercial privacy or data security.75 Data transferred overseas is not exempt from the home countrys laws and contracts between consumers and businesses are an effective and enforceable means of ensuring data is protected.Not only do localisation requirements fail to meet their own policy objectives but they then impose significant costs on a countrys economy.A 2016 study by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Chatham House demonstrated that data intensive sectors such as communications and financial services suffered relatively high productivity losses but the impacts were even felt in other sectors such as manufacturing.They concluded that data localisation regulations“tend to cause an economys production structure to shift(back)toward less innovative and relatively volatile sectors such as agriculture,raw materials and natural resources”.76As stated above,it is important that the UK requires its trade partners to ensure they have a strong and robust data protection framework,which is an essential enabler of trust in other parties treatment of data and facilitator of allowing data to be stored in other jurisdictions.The UK should ensure it includes a reciprocal commitment in future trade agreements that ensures that no party shall require the use of computing facilities or their location in a Partys territory as a condition of market access.3.Facilitate Regulatory Access to Data One of the accompanying arguments for the forced localisation data is centred on concerns over regulatory and law enforcement access to data which brought about changes to the USs approach to data localisation.This has its roots in the difficulty US regulators faced in accessing data from Lehman Brothers in the wake of the financial crisis and their bankruptcy in 2008.As the company unravelled and overseas subsidiaries were sold off,there were numerous hurdles and practical difficulties in the way as the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation tried to access Lehmans 26,000 servers scattered across various jurisdictions.77These are genuine concerns but ones that can be addressed both through domestic steps and in international agreements.In the former case,for“systemically important financial institutions”(SIFIs)oversight has been introduced in the US into how they manage their IT systems through the Dodd-Frank Act.This requires that SIFIs prepare“resolution plans”that ensure that there is an orderly winding down of the business in the case of bankruptcy to ensure regulators can access any information they need.78 A similar system is in place in the UK through the amended Banking Act 2009.79 While these measures are limited to large financial institutions and there may be a case to extend its requirements to other financial companies,they demonstrate that it is in the gift of domestic authorities to ensure that they have the ability to access important data regardless of the location it is stored in.Outside of the realm of finance,there are other examples of international cooperation to ensure that regulators can access data and investigations can be conducted.APEC has been a leader in this area.In 2010 it created the APEC Cross-border Privacy Enforcement Arrangement(CPEA)to aid in the enforcement of privacy laws.It is designed to help facilitate information sharing,providing mechanisms to promote effective cross-border cooperation and encourage information sharing and cooperation on investigations and enforcement with regulators outside of APEC.80 The APEC arrangement has been used effectively in aiding regulatory investigations.One notable example is the joint investigation by the Privacy Commissioner of Canada,the Australian Privacy Commissioner and Acting Australian Information Commissioner into the hack of Ashley Madison.This took place thanks to the APEC CPEA.81 For law enforcement,the growth of the digital realm has created new challenges in accessing evidence that may be stored on servers across the globe.Traditionally Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties have provided the means to access evidence in different jurisdictions but these have not proved capable of meeting the needs of law enforcement authorities when seeking the timely acquisition of e-evidence.82 International cooperation is needed to provide a coherent and consistent multinational approach to law enforcement access to data.The UK should ensure that it complements trade negotiations with talks on new mechanisms of cooperation between the Parties,or on the UKs accession to existing mechanisms.A trade agreement should include,where a separate agreement is not already in place,a clause that Parties will:endeavour to promote compatibility between regulatory regimes relating to access to data;exchange information on mechanisms within their jurisdictions;and explore ways to extend these or other suitable arrangements to promote compatibility between them.Digital Trade Principles35364.Prevent separate treatment for cross-border flows of financial dataFinancial data is an essential component of the functioning of the digital economy and the lifeblood of cross-border e-commerce.Yet,partly out of the experience of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy,it has been subject to separate carve outs in trade agreements.This is despite the provisions for regulatory access for data that have been discussed,and the existence of prudential exemptions for the banking and financial system.83 The imposition of additional data localisation requirements on financial institutions and their data specifically has impacted them in a number of ways.One study found it has limited their competitiveness;raised direct costs,for example by imposing the need to build dedicated data centres in each jurisdiction they operate in;and has potentially slowed the expansion of financial services in developing countries.84The UKs financial services sector was worth 119 billion in 2017 employing 1.1 million people.85 The fintech sector is an increasingly central part of the UKs financial and tech offering-already accounting for around 6.6 billion in revenue in 201586 and attracting$2.3 billion in investment in 2018.87 It should be a key UK priority to ensure that financial data is not subject to separate carve outs in future trade agreements to increase competitiveness and growth in this area.Digital Trade Principles37TariffsTariffs are a drag on a nations economy and raise costs for consumers.A study by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,Princeton University,and Colombia University found that the imposition of tariffs by the USA in 2018 resulted in a reduction of the countrys real income of$1.4 billion per month.88 With smartphones containing components from up to 2,200 suppliers and other tech products similarly dependent on complex supply chains,tariffs can hit the sector very hard.89 Indeed,analysis by the Consumer Technology Association found that the new US tariffs would cause the price for mobile phones in the US(imported from all countries)to rise by 14%,laptops and video game consoles by 19%and toy drones by 15%costs that will eventually be passed onto consumers.90 Fortunately,the trend over recent decades has been to exempt technology products from tariffs,and in the case of electronic transmissions,to prevent their imposition to begin with.The WTO has been central to this effort.The Information 5.Secure the expansion of the Information Technology Agreement in both geographic and product coverage6.Make the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions permanent Technology Agreement,which entered into force in July 1997 and was expanded in 2015,eliminated tariffs on a large number of technology products with an annual value of approximately$1.7 trillion.82 WTO members have signed up to the ITA,and the agreement covers 97%of world trade in IT products.91The other key achievement of the WTO in supporting the digital economy was the introduction of a moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions.Since 1998,the moratorium has been a key plank of the multilateral trading system,and a vital enabler of the growth of the internet as we know it today.By preventing the development and imposition of tariffs and customs duties on electronic transmissions,the moratorium has facilitated the development of the$27.7 trillion global e-commerce market.92Yet both the ITA and the moratorium are not be-all and end-all solutions to the questions of tariffs.Even setting aside the imposition of tariffs on ITA covered products by the USA in its trade dispute with China,which opens the USA to the possibility of dispute settlement for contravening WTO rules,the ITA has been relatively inflexible to the swift advance of technology.The 18 years it took to update the product coverage of the ITA,which itemizes specific products for inclusion meant that entire waves of innovation have been,and are continuing to be missed.Already,widely used products such as smart TVs are not covered under the ITAs positive list,nor are other emerging products such as 3D printers and alternate and virtual reality technologies.As for the moratorium,it has only ever been a temporary measure,subject to renewal at every WTO Ministerial Conference.Though it was renewed at the last meeting,in 2017,it has since come under renewed attack.India and South Africa have called for a“re-think”of the moratorium,citing the potential revenue lost due to the expansion of items electronically transmitted.93 In fact,goods that are readily digitizable of the kind that India and South Africa cite,such as books or DVDs,make up less than 1%of the total goods trade in both developed and developing countries,yielding only around 0.25%of all customs revenues in 2014.94Other countries have a different protectionist take on the moratorium,with Indonesia arguing that the moratorium“applies only to the electronic transmissions and not to products or contents which are submitted electronically”.95 It has consequently introduced tariff lines on intangible products such as software.96Ending the moratorium,or defining it in such a way as to open up the contents of electronic transmissions to the imposition of tariffs,would mark the single biggest reversal of trade liberalisation in living memory.With the global sales of the top 10 software companies coming to over$250 billion in 2019,new digital tariffs could threaten entire digital business models,and increase costs for other rapidly digitizing sectors.97 More importantly,recent research has shown that the imposition of tariffs on electronic transmissions in developing countries would fail to increase revenue and be“fiscally counter-productive”as it would result in“higher prices and reduced consumption,which would in turn slow GDP growth and shrink tax revenues”.98 Digital Trade Principles3839Indeed,in a scenario of reciprocal digital tariffs,India,for example,would lose 49 times more in GDP than it would generate in tariffs,while Indonesia would lose 160 times more,meaning their policies on the moratorium would yield incredibly negative consequences on their economy.995.Secure the expansion of the Information Technology Agreement in both geographic and product coverageAn ambitious UK digital trade policy should look to primarily focus on increasing product coverage for the ITA while also focusing on expanding the geography of the agreement.Though some large countries like Mexico and Brazil have not signed onto the agreement yet,it is worth noting that 97%of trade in IT products under the purview of the ITA is already covered.100 In the medium-term the UK should work to invoke the review mechanism for the ITA as part of the JSI on e-commerce at the WTO to ensure that it is not another 18 years before the ITA is again updated.In the short-term,the UK needs to complement this approach with efforts to diffuse the current tensions placed on the ITA by the current US-China trade dispute and ongoing dispute settlements at the WTOWithin future UK trade deals,it is important to ensure that widespread and emerging technologies is included as part of tariff liberalisation.Items such as,but not limited to,3D printers(HS Code 847780,1.7%3rd country duty),Smart TVs(HS Code 852859,14%3rd country duty)and lithium-ion batteries(HS Code 850760,2.7%3rd country duty)should be tariff free.To prevent the imposition of tariffs on future technologies,tariffs should be dealt with using a negative list in future UK trade agreements.This way,only the items that are specifically listed are subject to duties and everything else that is currently being created or imagined,will remain tariff free unless specifically added to that list.This approach will help protect future technologies and emerging industries from the imposition of tariffs by the UKs trading partners.In addition,the next steps for the ITA should include addressing non-tariffs barriers for the ICT sector and discussing the role of digital technologies for supporting the protection of the environment and mitigating climate change.A relaunch of the WTO plurilateral Environmental Goods Agreement negotiations with an extension to services should be explored in parallel.6.Make the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions permanent The UK should make it a central tenant of its digital trade policy to make the moratorium a permanent feature of the multilateral trading system.This should primarily be done through the WTO by working with likeminded countries to secure a consensus on making it permanent.The e-commerce negotiations offer an unprecedented opportunity to reach an agreement and finally secure a tariff free future for cross-border electronic transmissions.In this process,the UK should advocate for a broad definition of electronic transmissions and include the content of those transmissions(i.e.e-books,video,software,etc.).The UK should continue to resist attempts to characterize the moratorium as only covering the transmissions themselves.Furthermore,the UK should follow best practice in digital trade policy and include a strong commitment in future trade deals to ban the imposition of customs duties in connection with the import or export of digital products transmitted electronically.This commitment should extend to all digital products regardless of source rather than being limited to just the signatories of the agreement,thus helping embed the moratorium in international law.As Mark Wu has argued,This approach is highly practicable.In a world where the data necessary to create a digital product can be stored in and flow through various jurisdictions,determining the origin of a digital product can be complicated.101 In trying to establish a world-leading digital trade policy,extending an obligation to impose no tariffs on digital products to any country is an important marker of that ambition and commitment to free trade principles.Intellectual PropertyRecent years have seen a transformation in the use of intellectual property,bringing with it many challenges and opportunities.The protection of proprietary knowledge,to ensure creators of new products are duly rewarded needs to be an important ongoing element in the UKs trade policy.As the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation has argued,the protection of intellectual property rights(IPR)has a number of positive benefits by:creating powerful incentives for domestic innovation inducing knowledge spillovers that help others to innovate ensuring a countrys companies can focus on operating productively and innovating,instead of having to devote an undue amount of their time and resources to protecting their IP in an environment where its at riskDigital Trade Principles407.Prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms,or encryption keys as a condition of market access8.Support the development of AI through enabling open government data and text and data mining while respecting intellectual property rights promoting the international diffusion of technology,innovation,and knowhow boosting a countrys levels of research and development,inbound foreign direct investment(FDI),and exports of goods and services.102The UK already has a robust IP framework and it is important this is protected,including in relation to patents.Any future trade deal should seek to build on the UKs high standard of IP protection and should not threaten the UKs membership of the Unified Patent Court and the European Patent Convention.These are highly valued by the UK tech sector and continued membership should be a key priority.However,the impact of the digital economy has widened IPR issues far beyond patents.Issues such as the protection of source codes and the enabling of AI through the use of open data should also be central elements of a future UK digital trade policy.417.Prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms or encryption keys as a condition of market accessWhile innovations in working practices have led to much more intellectual property being co-created via open source software,the reality is that for many businesses their products are a mix between proprietary content and open source.103 It is therefore worrying that the forced transfer of technology is demanded in certain jurisdictions as a condition of market access.This is notably the case in China,who was subject to a Section 301 investigation by the Office of the United States Trade Representative into its“Acts,Policies,and Practices Related to Technology Transfer,Intellectual Property,and Innovation”.104 Indeed,as the Peterson Institute for International Economics summarises:“China has adopted policies deliberately designed to force foreign multinational to transfer strategically sensitive technologies to indigenous Chinese firms”.105It is important that the UKs digital trade policy is used to protect the IP of innovative UK firms.The UK should work with likeminded countries to ensure the JSI e-commerce negotiations include robust provisions to prevent the mandatory transfer of source codes,algorithms,or encryption keys as a condition of market access.Likewise,future trade agreements should include a clause stating that no party shall require the transfer of,or access to,source code of software,algorithms,or encryption keys owned by a person of another party,as a condition for the import,distribution,sale or use of such software,or products containing such software,in its territory.Such wording would not prevent the provision of source code in commercially negotiated contracts,nor would it prevent requiring the modification of software to comply with a partys laws and regulations.The clause should seek to include an agreement that such laws and regulations will not lead to arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination,or be a disguised restriction on trade,and do not impose restrictions that are greater than are necessary to achieve their objectives.8.Support the development of AI through enabling open government data and text and data mining while respecting intellectual property rightsThe development of AI has also had implications for intellectual property rights.Access to large data sources are crucial to train AI programs.With 27 MB of data set to be created every second for every human on the planet by 2020,and 90%of all data ever created in the last two years,the ability to analyse and harness that data relies on innovative AI.106 The results of doing this will be transformative one estimate is that AI could deliver a$13 trillion of additional economic output by 2030,boosting global GDP by about 1.2%a year.107 Unlike the major trading powers of the US,EU,and China,the UK does not have a domestic market of hundreds of millions of people as a foundation.To continue to scale the UKs AI sector and export its innovations then access to global data will be essential.If the UK aspires to have a world leading digital trade policy,then it needs to ensure that it calibrates it to helping the UKs most innovative emerging sectors.Digital Trade Principles4243One way that the UK government can facilitate the development of AI technology is to build on the gold standard set by the USMCA in future trade deals that commit parties to make government data available to the public in machine-readable and searchable open formats,and allow it to be searched,retrieved,used,reused,and redistributed.Facilitating the provision of accessible,organisable public data will help allow innovative UK AI companies to develop and train their products and deploy them readily in foreign markets.It is positive to see that the UK has set a precedent of including this provision in the UK-Japan CEPA.An additional step that the UK should take to break new ground on digital trade would be to include mutual commitments to facilitate the use of text and data mining in the training of AI programs and artificial neural networks by providing greater access to data,where that material is lawfully accessed.This would help drive the development of technologies that can find previously unknown patterns and possibilities in vast data sets,helping to develop predictive analytics.108 Copies of works and content that are made should only be retained as long as necessary for the text and data mining to train AI and artificial neural networks.Such a commitment should also only apply to works and content that has not been expressly reserved by IP holders in the appropriate manner,such as by machine-readable means in the case of content made publicly available online.Regulatory CooperationThe reality of technological change today means that it will not be tariffs that are the main barrier to digital trade,but regulatory divergence.Across a huge range of areas,Governments are scrambling to understand the implications of new technologies and business models.From what cryptocurrency and fintech mean 9.Establish cooperation on the regulation of AI,fintech and other emerging technologies10.Establish cooperation on cybersecurity issues with an emphasis on a risk-based approach11.Work towards internationally interoperable digital identities 12.Use trade policy to further measures to protect online safetyto banking systems,to the ethical and legal implications of AI and autonomous vehicles,to the impact of social media on elections,the regulatory landscape for emerging technologies is going to get more complex very soon.The UK has often been at the forefront of developing new innovation-friendly regulation that maintains public trust and safety.The development of Open Banking under the leadership of the Competition and Markets Authority has played a significant role in fostering the growth of UK fintech companies.109 As of November 2020,the Financial Conduct Authoritys Regulatory Sandbox has already helped 140 companies over six cohorts test innovative technologies and products actually in the market with real consumers.110 This kind of steps have clearly demonstrated the role that regulators can play in encouraging innovation.111 In the AI sphere,the creation of the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation as the worlds first body to be dedicated to fostering the UKs use of data and AI,will help cement the UKs leadership in this field.112But if these innovative regulatory approaches are not replicated elsewhere,then UK tech firms will find themselves unable to export their products abroad without significant modification.A trade agreement is not the appropriate avenue to attempt substantial alignment of regulation.However,it can provide a framework for constructive engagement and cooperation between governments.This can be valuable in enabling the effective and enforceable regulation of emerging areas in a way that both helps innovative businesses navigate international regulatory regimes while maintaining public trust and safety in all parties.9.Establish cooperation on the regulation of AI,fintech and other emerging technologiesIn future UK trade agreements,it should be an aim to support the growth of emerging technology companies by establishing frameworks for cooperation in the development of regulation.These should include specific provisions to maintain an ongoing regulatory dialogue including the sharing of information,experience,laws,regulations,implementation,compliance and best practices.There should be a commitment highlighting both the specific regulatory bodies that should be in dialogue,for example privacy commissioners,as well as across technologies where they may not be a specific regulator in place.The Singapore-Australia DEA provides a model for doing this with its accompanying MoUs.113 It is welcome that the UK-EU TCA includes positive obligations to cooperate on the development of emerging technologies,however,greater ambition is required on the scope of cooperation,regulators included within it,and the technologies included within it.Trade agreements should also include commitments to cooperate and maintain a dialogue on the promotion and development of mechanisms that facilitate the interoperability of regulatory regimes and on other multilateral regulatory efforts.Examples of this include OECD principles on AI114 and the development of the G20/OECD Policy Guidance on Financial Consumer Protection Approaches in the Digital Age.115The UK should also seek other means to expand the access for innovative UK firms.One example of this can be seen through the UK“Fintech Bridges”,agreed with Hong Kong,Digital Trade Principles44Digital Trade Principles45South Korea,Singapore,China and Australia.116 These agreements help secure access of UK fintech companies into the regulatory sandboxes of other countries,helping them establish an international footprint at an early stage.117 They also help facilitate common approaches to the regulatory challenges raised by emerging financial technologies,helping ensure that non-tariff barriers will not be erected at a later point.The UK should continue to negotiate“Fintech Bridges”with other important and emerging markets and explore ways this approach could be expanded into other sectors.10.Establish cooperation on cybersecurity issues with an emphasis on a risk-based approachIn a complex,interconnected world,good cybersecurity plays a central role and this importance is beginning to demonstrate itself in digital trade policy.The cost of cybercrime is significant over 60%of large businesses reported having cyber security breaches or attacks in 2018.118 The most recent National Crime Agency and National Cyber Security Centre report on cybercrime notes that between 2016 and the end of 2017 there were 34 significant cyber-attacks(i.e.those requiring a cross-government response)with a further 762 less serious incidents.They further note an expectation that“the race between hackers and defenders capabilities will increase in pace and intensity”.119Meanwhile,the UK has a leading cybersecurity sector,with annual revenues of 5.7 billion and a total GVA contribution of 2.3 billion in 2015-16.120 The Governments 2016 National Cyber Security Strategy committed 1.9 billion over five years to both help make the state more resilient to attacks and to promote the growth of the domestic sector through measures such as cyber innovation centres on allocated innovation procurement funds.121 The UK should seek to help support the development of the domestic cybersecurity sector and promote common approaches to cyber issues through its digital trade policy.To this end it was very welcome to see that the UK-EU TCA included ambitious and detailed cybersecurity provisions.122 UK digital trade policy should build on the standard set in the UK-EU TCA for cybersecurity cooperation and that in USMCA that recognises that risk-based approaches relying on consensus-based standards and risk management best practices are the most effective way to deal with cybersecurity threats and encouraging enterprises within the jurisdiction of the parties to take that approach.Furthermore,future trade agreements,including the WTO e-commerce work track,should include provisions to strengthen collaboration and cooperation in the identification and mitigation of cybersecurity threats and enable the sharing of information and best practices.11.Work towards internationally interoperable digital identities Without a verifiable identity,individuals can find themselves facing systemic barriers to accessing justice,opening bank accounts,registering to vote as well as more widely being locked out of the digital economy.Research from the World Bank has found that just under 1 billion people globally lack any official proof of identity in 2018.123 The residents of low-income countries,in particular women and those in the lowest 40%of income are the most impacted by lack of IDs.124 That one of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is to ensure that everyone has a legal identity by 2030 reflects the importance of identity in increasing inclusion.125 Well designed and governed digital identities can have a big impact on the economy.Analysis from McKinsey estimates that countries could unlock significant economic value from implementing digital identity programs.For the Digital Trade Principles4647UK specifically,if it were to adopt an advanced identity system,one designed with principles of data minimization,owner agency,and privacy protection,then gains could be in the range of 3%of GDP in 2030.126 As techUK have argued,identity is not something bound by borders.National identities must be recognised in other jurisdictions for the smooth functioning of business.127 The UK should use its trade policy to advance the interoperability of digital identities internationally,ensure the comparable protection of digital identities in other jurisdictions,and further support their development through regulatory dialogues.12.Use trade policy to further measures to protect online safetyFor all that the internet has opened up opportunities for individuals and businesses,the online world has also exposed many avenues for harm.Whether that is criminal and extremist content,grooming of children,cyberbullying,or misinformation,there is an array of threats and problems that threaten children,individuals,businesses,governments,and society in general the world over.The line between illegal content and legal but harmful content is not always clear cut,and how to respect freedom of speech while ensuring a safe online environment is not one amenable to easy solutions.As techUKs engagement with the UK Governments Online Harms White Paper shows,the complexity involved in regulating and enforcing this area requires deep thought and scrutiny to get right.128 Furthermore,the very nature of the internet means that online threats and harms are not constrained by international borders.International cooperation will be at the heart of addressing them.The Australia-Singapore DEA and Singapore-New Zealand-Chile DEPA have broken new ground by moving beyond online consumer protection and specifically addressing online harms in the context of a trade agreement.The UK should follow the best practice set in the DEA and DEPA,and include provisions in future trade agreements that commit parties to working together and within international fora to advance online safety.Trade FacilitationDigital trade policy has an important role in facilitating other forms of trade.For example,e-commerce platforms have opened access to international markets for UK SMEs,helping them export at far higher rates than brick and mortar small businesses.Indeed,91%of SMEs on eBay with sales of more than 6,400 were exporting in 2015 on average to 20 different countries annually,compared to an export rate of just 28%for traditional stores.129 Reducing trade costs for the delivery of small packages,and standardising these internationally,would make it significantly easier for small businesses to export using digital platforms.Likewise,simple digital technologies have increased the ease of doing business across borders.While previously,the conclusion of 4813.Standardise minimum de minimis thresholds to facilitate e-commerce14.Secure recognition of e-signatures and expansion of paperless tradingcontract negotiations often meant they had to be physically signed and sent to other parties,now it is possible to use e-signatures and digital signatures to massively cut the times required to seal a deal.One company reduced the turnaround time for sales contracts by five days,and another reduced it by 83%from 23.5 days to 4 days and 2 hours.130 Yet e-signatures are not universally recognised and they are often subject to divergent regulatory approaches.The lack of uniformity makes“cross-border digital activities more complex and raises the cost of doing business in multiple markets”.131Going beyond e-signatures and extending paperless trading across global value chains offers further savings in time and money.From purchasing orders,inventory reports,sanitary and phytosanitary certificates,the digitisation of trading documents has played a significant role in the development of“just-in-time”supply chains yet paperless trade measures are far from universally adopted.132DEPA broke new ground with its comprehensive module to business and trade facilitation and its interaction with the digital economy.The inclusion of new provisions to encourage cooperation and the sharing of best practices on logistics and electronic invoicing established a new standard on these topics that the DEA then replicated.The UK should ensure that its future trade agreements take a comprehensive approach to business and trade facilitation building on the DEPA example.13.Standardise minimum de minimis thresholds to facilitate e-commerceThe UK boasts the third largest B2C market with sales worth US$266 billion as of 2018.133 The cross-border flow of parcels is an ever more essential component of this market-total volumes reaching 284 million items in 2017-18,an increase of 30%year on year.134 Not only is the UK a major importer of small items via e-commerce platforms but it is also a significant exporter.Across the EU and EEA,a market that is experiencing significant e-commerce growth,the UK was either the first or second most common origin of the most recent online purchase of shoppers in 17 countries.135De minimis thresholds(DMT)remain one of the key costs for this trade in small items.The DMT is the valuation ceiling for imports,below which there is no duty or tax charged and other procedures are minimal.136 DMTs have two key objectives balancing the costs of assessing and collecting duties and taxes compared to the amounts raised,and promoting digital trade and the express delivery of low-value shipments,a major plus for businesses and consumers.137 Too low a threshold could end up costing a country more than it makes in revenue,increasing costs to importers in the process,as was the case in Canada,which had the lowest DMT of any industrialised nation until it committed to raising it as part of USMCA.138As part of its digital trade policy,the UK should seek to ensure that other countries DMT are at a comparable level to the UKs to ensure a level playing field for UK e-commerce exporters and that these thresholds are periodically reviewed to take into account relevant factors Digital Trade Principles4950including rates of inflation,effect on trade facilitation,administrative cost of collecting duties compared to the amount of duties,and the impact on SMEs.The UK currently charges no customs duty on any goods under 135 and no VAT for goods under 15(rules differ for gifts).139 Furthermore,the UK should work with international partners at the WCO and WTO to seek an alignment on DMTs and related customs declarations for small items to reduce trade costs for consumers and businesses.14.Secure recognition of e-signatures and expansion of paperless tradingThe UK should seek to use its digital trade policy to advance the recognition and adoption of paperless trading and e-signatures,helping reduce trade costs across global supply chains.This should include specific provisions in future trade agreements that ensure:Non-discrimination and functional and legal equivalency for trade administration documents submitted electronically;Non-discrimination and functional and legal equivalency for contracts concluded electronically and those using e-signatures and electronic authentication;Technological neutrality in legislation in the use of e-signatures and electronic authentication;A commitment to the use or introduction of electronic single windows for trade processes and that trade administration documents should be available to the public electronically;and A regulatory dialogue between trade administration bodies encouraging cooperation in the implantation of paperless trading.Additionally,the UK should build off the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement and seek to encourage countries to implement its provisions,especially relating to paperless trade.The UK should also work with international partners at the WTO and WCO,as well as through the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law(UNCITRAL)and UN Centre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic Business(UN/CEFACT)to continue to push for the development of new best practices in paperless trading and develop new innovation friendly model regulations.514.Supporting Digital Trade Services Telecommunications Limitations to Liability Government Procurement Standards Rules of OriginServicesThe technology sector in the UK is dominated by services.As Frontier Economics report for techUK,“The Digital Sectors After Brexit”found,96%of the sectors output and 81%of its exports are spread across services activities.140 Getting services right in trade agreements is going to be essential if the UK tech sector is going to benefit from the countrys trade policy.The most digital heavy exports,(telecommunication,computer and information services),were worth over 21 billion to the UK in 2019.141 However,the scale of digital dependent exports is far greater when digitally delivered services are included.In 2018 these amounted to exports worth 190.3 billion 67.1%of total UK services exports.142In addition to the many digitally specific barriers to trade in services,such as data localisation requirements or regulatory divergence that are dealt with above,there are a range of other non-sector specific barriers as well.These include requirements for local presence,a highly restrictive measure for online-only businesses.Similarly,local content requirements,most often used for manufactured goods such as cars,are in some jurisdictions applied to software,in particular as part of procurement processes.These local content requirements can also oblige firms to use local engineering and installation services.143Trade agreements include more than the digital trade chapter and,likewise,the UKs digital sector rely on a range of different provisions if they are to successfully trade.Whether it is the right to establish in a country without onerous conditions or the ability to move workers from the UK to be part of a local team,and many things in between,future UK trade agreements should include comprehensive provisions to support its businesses.These should include reference to:4.Supporting Digital TradeSupporting Digital Trade5253A UK digital trade policy should ensure that local presence and local content requirements are eliminated in future trade deals.It should ensure that UK services exporters are dealt with under the principles of National Treatment and Most Favoured Nation.MobilityMobility is a key barrier to the export of services.While many services can be delivered over the internet,these are often underpinned by the need for staff to be on the ground either short-term or long-term.For example,a cloud computing service provider may need to send engineers into a country to repair its servers.Restrictions and bureaucratic requirements directly lead to increased costs and delays for businesses.In a competitive and fast-moving sector,the ability to recruit talent easily and move them within a business is critical and,as techUK has previously argued,there is much space to improve the UKs immigration system.144Facilitating the movement of people(both short-term movement and long-term migration)should be an objective of future trade agreements.The UK should look to secure more generous visas as part of UK trade agreements,for example building on provisions that allow for short term mobility,such as those allowed under CETA,145 and carving out new pathways for long-term migration.Mutual recognition of qualifications is another barrier that is increasingly going to affect the tech sector in a variety of ways.The first is as tech roles receive greater professional recognition.For example,the Department for Digital,Culture,Media and Sport in 2018 ran a consultation into developing the UK cyber security profession,including on proposals to create a new chartered body for cyber professionals.146 As other countries pursue similar initiatives it will be important to ensure that these are mutually recognized and align with international standards otherwise it will not be possible for UK chartered cyber professionals to provide services in other jurisdictions.Tech is also impacted by the need for the mutual recognition of other professions.As new technology transforms established professions,through areas like medtech,fintech and legaltech,ensuring that the qualifications of the specified person behind the technology is recognized will be crucial to enable the product to be used in other countries,both for individuals coming into the UK and UK citizens going elsewhere.Provisions on the mutual recognition of qualifications should be a central objective of any future UK services chapter.Finally,it is important that any services chapter should be in the form of a negative list.This approach,as taken in the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement,ensures that liberalisation is universal to all service sectors,unless specifically exempted.147 For a fast-developing sector,where key UK digital exports,such as those in fintech,did not exist even a decade ago,the use of a negative list will enable innovative new companies to be able to benefit from liberalisation immediately,and will help ensure that the FTA supports the UK economy of the future.To not use a negative list,or to use one but with large carveouts reserving the right to impose trade-distorting regulations in emerging areas,will directly limit the value of future trade agreements to the tech sector.TelecommunicationsImproving access of UK companies to international telecommunication markets should be an aim of future trade agreements.Telecommunication services provide the backbone to the digital economy yet they are subject to some of the most protectionist requirements and anti-competitive policies.148 The UKs telecommunications sector is highly competitive,with exports of 6.4 billion in 2017 of which 58.6%was to non-EU countries.149 The intention of the EU to review and sharpen existing WTO telecommunications rules as part of the WTO e-commerce negotiations is to be welcomed.Future UK trade agreements should seek to liberalise telecommunications trade in a number of ways:ensure that the definitions of public telecommunications networks and/or services must include an explicit reference to business to business supplies;enhance non-discrimination clauses for wholesale access,including an obligation on domestic suppliers not to discriminate in favour of their own downstream business,to ensure consistent,pro-competitive regulation of business grade wholesale access;Supporting Digital Trade54Supporting Digital Trade55 ensure that UK providers enjoy the same rights to offer services and trade on equivalent terms as domestic providers,including not facing additional licensing or domestic ownership requirements;remove geo-blocking restrictions,allowing the transfer of content across borders;include direct,indirect and common costs,as well as a reasonable rate of return,where cost-oriented rates are applied.Such rates shall not include costs not related to the provision of public telecommunications services;and ensure that competent regulatory authorities should be fully independent and impartial,with appropriate enforcement powers and appeal mechanisms.Their powers and standing should be mutually recognised and there should be mechanisms in place for ongoing regulatory dialogue to exchange best practice with a view to ensuring consistency of approach.Future UK trade agreements should not jeopardise the light touch regulatory approach which has helped position the UK as an enabling regime for digital and which is particularly important for emerging services,such as IoT and 5G.This approach should apply to telecommunication services.Limitations to LiabilityThe principle of limited liability for online intermediary activities was established in the UK under the European Union e-Commerce Directive(Directive 200/31/EC(ECD)and implemented in the UK under the Electronic Commerce(EC Directive)Regulations 2002.150 This directive forms a long-standing,core component of the legal framework that underpins the internet and has been fundamental to the growth of the UKs digital economy.It has allowed a diversity of intermediaries to become established and grow,and has provided previously unimaginable opportunities for people and businesses to access new markets.Under these regulations,there is no blanket exemption from liability stemming from online services.Instead liability is limited and conditional.Crucially,the regime is activity based,not business-model specific,so where a limitation to liability exists,it applies to a specific activity,not the entity as a whole or economic sector.Future UK trade agreements must adopt provisions that commit parties to principles on intermediary limited liability equivalent to those set out in the USMCA.UK consumers and small businesses increasingly leverage a wide array of comparison websites,customer support tools,and marketing platforms to reach far beyond their local markets.For these trade-enabling online services to function,UK firms need some level of assurance that they will not be held liable for communications that arise between businesses and consumers using these tools,particularly where firms take appropriate action upon notice of illegal content.The UK should work through bilateral agreements and the WTO JSI proceedings to establish predictable non-IP safe harbours that allow online services to serve this trade-enabling function,while at the same time encouraging firms to work with public authorities to ensure a safe online environment.Domestically,the UK should continue to maintain a viable,clear liability framework for online services.Government Procurement Governments are key customers of digital technologies.From traditional areas such as communications equipment and database services,through cybersecurity products and CRM systems to emerging areas like the use of AI in decision making or diagnostic healthcare,Governments increasingly need a huge range of tech products.This is an area where the UK is a leading player.The UK Government has been a pioneer in the development of e-procurement,for example through its Digital Marketplace.This saw sales of 2.03 billion in 2018/19,with almost 40%through SMEs.151 Initiatives like NHSX,which seeks to drive the digitisation of healthcare in the UK,help to chart a course of public and private collaboration that can deliver improved services through the use of digital technologies.152There is a major opportunity for UK businesses in opening up foreign procurement m
MarketMonitorNo.104 December 2022ContentsFeature article:Is Speculation Driving CommodityPrice Volatility?2World supply-demand outlook3Crop monitor5Policy developments8International prices11Futures markets13Market indicators14Fertilizer outlook16Ocean freight markets17Explanatory notes18WHEATMAIZERICESOYBEANSMarkets at a glanceEasingNeutralTighteningFROMPREVIOUSFORECASTSFROMPREVIOUSSEASONWith northern hemisphere grain and oilseedcrops largely harvested,and the Black SeaGrain Initiative extended for another 120days,market attention is shifting to grow-ing conditions in the southern hemisphere.The third consecutive year of La Nia hasprolonged drought conditions in Argentina,resulting in sharply reduced wheat produc-tion prospects relative to last year.By con-trast,La Nia has resulted in abnormally wetconditionsinAustralia,whichexpectsabove-average wheat yields;however,concerns re-main over the quality of the crop,whichcould impact prices for milling wheat.Plant-ing progress for South American maize andsoybeans are on pace,but it is still too earlyto tell whether yields will return to more nor-mal levels after last years drought-reducedproduction.The Market Monitor is a product of the Agricultural Market Information System(AMIS).It covers international markets for wheat,maize,riceand soybeans,giving a synopsis of major market developments and the policy and other market drivers behind them.The analysis is a collectiveassessment of the market situation and outlook by the ten international organizations and entities that form the AMIS Secretariat.2AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Feature articleIs Speculation Driving Commodity Price Volatility?The debate whether speculation is driving food pricevolatility has come back to the forefront.Especially forlow-income countries,such volatility in prices can in-crease food security risks,thus calling for a thorough in-vestigation of the role of speculation on food markets.Tothis end,AMIS organized a public webinar with a groupofexpertsincommodityfuturesmarkets,coveringawiderange of perspectives.Speculation is most frequently associated with invest-ment operations in commodity futures markets,whichare used by agricultural producers and buyers for hedg-ing purposes.By agreeing on a future price of a com-modity,the price risk of these market participants(com-mercials)can be transferred to investors(financials),who buy and sell futures contracts in anticipation of mak-ingaprofit,addingliquiditytothemarket.Thisbuyingandselling of futures contracts with the objective of makinga profit rather than reducing risks related to the physicalexchange of the commodity can be referred to as spec-ulation.In order to determine whether speculation is indeed dis-torting food prices,it is important to consider that com-modity futures markets can play their function as a pricerisk management tool only if they reflect the underlyingvalue of the cash price,which is periodically guaranteedby the fact that futures contracts can be physically deliv-ered.Although used for only a very limited share of thetotal positions held in futures exchanges,this possibilityfor a physical delivery allows market participants to takeadvantage of any price discrepancy between cash andfutures price and ensures price convergence when con-tracts expire.The literature usually identifies three ways in which spec-ulation may destabilize markets:For one,speculative ac-tivities such as trend following(a market strategy basedon buying when the price of commodity futures goes upand selling when the prices go down)may cause futuresprices to regularly overshoot or undershoot the level ofthe underlying cash price.Although the literature is farfrom conclusive about the depth or frequency of this typeof phenomenon,there is broad agreement that any ef-fects would usually be short-lived.In a second category,speculation is suspected to causefutures prices to periodically diverge from fundamentalvalues in a more substantial way.In this context,activi-ties of commodity index funds are viewed as a potentialdriver as they hold large long(i.e.buying)positions thatcan move the entire market.While the hypothesis of theexistence of such a phenomenon raises legitimate con-cerns,the bulk of the evidence in the literature suggeststhat in practice these funds have little to no impact oncommodity futures prices.The last concern is about a potential manipulation dur-ing the delivery of a futures contract,usually coined as acorner.In these cases,a manipulator tries to gathera position to be delivered that is large enough to causea divergence between cash and futures prices.Deliv-ery manipulation is arguably the most concerning formin which speculation can impact markets as it breaks thevery core function of commodity futures as a risk man-agement tool.To avoid it,market regulators such as theCommodity Futures Trading Commission in the UnitedStates use instruments such as position limits,which seta maximum number of contracts that can be held fornon-hedging purposes.While opinions on the exact impact of speculation mightdiffer,it is usually regarded as indispensable to ensurethe smooth functioning of futures markets.Allowing anadequate level of speculation for liquidity purposes with-out destabilizing markets is a delicate affair.By providinginformation on supply,demand and prices,commodityexchanges,market regulators and even initiatives suchas AMIS all have a role to play to promote fair and or-derly markets.Yet,even with fully transparent food mar-kets,there might be instances when prices will be excep-tionally volatile,and these require the urgent attention ofpolicy makers in view of the detrimental impact that thesesituations might have on food security.Is Speculation Driving Commodity PriceVolatility?Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war,agricultural fu-tures market prices have been highly volatile,with lev-els not seen since the food price spikes in 2007/08and 2010/11.Some believe that market speculatorsand managed money funds are to blame,by dis-torting market prices and thus hampering means bywhich producers,merchants and other hedgers caneffectivelymanagepricerisks.Thisseminarexaminedthe role of speculation in markets and discussed theimpact of speculation in previous periods of high foodprices,and the role it plays in current markets.AMIS Webinar-Is Speculation Driving CommodityPrice Volatility?AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20223World supply-demand outlookWheatFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.778.2641.3783.8645.4781.1642.7779.4642.5782.7644.7781.6644.7791.9653.9Supply1070.2802.91077.5805.11074.2801.81070.1789.01059.0779.21059.8795.61071.1800.9Utiliz.773.2630.4775.0636.3774.7636.0793.8645.8791.2647.2780.6639.7785.5644.4Trade195.7186.0193.7185.7194.0186.0205.1195.5206.6197.1196.7186.8192.8184.4Stocks293.0159.1299.6158.3300.1158.8276.3134.6267.8123.5279.2145.9285.6148.1I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SMaizeFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.1212.3939.71167.5892.51163.6888.61217.5944.91168.4894.41218.8946.31167.9894.9Supply1498.51071.81473.01039.21470.41036.51510.31032.01476.1992.91497.51030.61452.6991.5Utiliz.1199.4907.51185.6889.21185.7889.31202.6911.61175.3880.31212.7911.61190.5885.3Trade181.9159.8180.2161.2182.3163.3193.0171.1183.5165.5179.2156.7172.3153.3Stocks306.8148.0288.6133.2286.0130.6307.798.5300.894.6284.796.5262.187.1I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SRiceFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.525.6379.8512.6367.4512.8367.7515.1366.1503.7356.7516.0366.9507.8361.5Supply719.4470.5709.5463.7709.9464.2703.0437.5686.8426.8698.1442.0688.0436.0Utiliz.521.9369.9518.3371.4519.0371.8519.9363.5517.8362.8518.0364.8514.7363.3Trade54.448.752.948.452.948.455.049.353.048.051.446.448.845.8Stocks197.196.5193.492.4194.093.0183.170.1169.061.2180.172.2173.269.7I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SSoybeanFAO-AMISUSDAIGC2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast2021/22est2022/23fcast3 Nov8 Dec9 Nov17 NovProd.355.4339.0392.4373.0394.6375.1355.6339.2390.5372.1352.2335.8386.7367.2Supply406.0366.1433.4394.9435.4397.0455.6408.1485.2435.0406.8359.4430.9381.6Utiliz.369.1256.7380.6264.7380.5264.6363.2255.9380.2263.6362.5254.2378.1263.9Trade154.462.8167.168.6167.168.6154.062.5169.171.1155.064.2165.469.1Stocks40.821.848.227.249.728.794.762.9102.270.744.314.452.921.5I NM I L L I O NT O N N E SWHEAT2022 production still forecast to reach a record level,up0.4 percent year-on-year,but lowered slightly this month on reducedproduction prospects in Argentina due to prolonged dry conditions.Utilization in 2022/23 headed for a marginal expansion from the2021/22 level with growth in food consumption offsetting a foreseendecline in feed use of wheat,mostly in China.Trade in 2022/23(July/June)forecast to slightly decline from the2021/22 level and virtually unchanged m/m with higher expectedshipments for Australia and the Russian Federation offsetting lowersales anticipated for Argentina and the EU.Stocks(ending in 2023)nearly stable m/m and forecast to rise by 2.4percent above opening levels,with most of the expected buildupconcentrated in China and the Russian Federation.MAIZE2022 production lowered slightly m/m,largely due to adownward revision in Ukraine reflecting war-related disruptions,bringingthe global forecast down to 4.0 percent below last years output.Utilization 2022/23 forecast unchanged m/m and still pointing to a 1.1percent decline compared to the 2021/22 level,underpinned by lowerfeed use and,to a lesser extent,industrial use.Trade in 2022/23(July/June)now forecast near the 2021/22 levelfollowing an upward revision this month mostly reflecting strong exportpace from Brazil and Paraguay,and robust purchases by the EU.Stocks(ending in 2023)lowered this month,mostly in Ukraine onaccount of lower production prospects,and now forecast to fall 6.8percent below opening levels.RICEproduction in 2022 still seen falling 2.4 percent below the 2021all-time high,despite some small upward revisions for a few countries.Utilization in 2022/23 raised somewhat,as slightly higher non-food useforecasts for China and upgrades to food intake namely in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo and Malaysia outweigh a smalldownward revision for India.Trade in 2023 unchanged m/m,but now forecast to fall 2.8 percentbelow a revised forecast for 2022.Stocks(2022/23 carry-out)raised slightly following upgrades namely forthe EU,Senegal and Venezuela.As a result,global reserves are nowpredicted to fall 1.6 percent below their record opening level to thesecond highest volume on record.SOYBEAN2022/23 production lifted marginally on higherforecasts for Brazil and the US,while the prolonged dryness in Argentinacontinues to be of concern.Utilization in 2022/23 broadly stable m/m,with a higher crush forecastfor the US offset by lower consumption projections mostly in India.Trade in 2022/23(Oct/Sep)virtually unchanged,confirming an 8 percentrecovery in global soybean shipments after contracting for twoconsecutive seasons.Stocks(2022/23 carry-out)raised slightly,mainly reflecting upwardrevisions for Brazil and the US thanks to their higher productionprospects. iWorld BalancesData shown in the second rows refer to world aggregates without China;world trade data refer to exports;and world trade without China excludes exports to China.To review and compare data,by country and commodity,across three main sources,go to https:/app.amis-outlook.org/#/market-database/compare-sourcesEstimates and forecasts may differ across sources for many reasons,including different methodologies.For more information see Explanatory notes on the lastpage of this report.4AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022World supply-demand outlookRevisions(FAO-AMIS)to 2022/23 forecasts since the previous reportProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocksProductionImportsUtilizationExportsStocks-2654298-362342473-38992139752102-2688273-13639-225222163-112-64-761505-2796225-585900-743-343229007171750-2903-127-5107-50871963-112-254-811545-5100-100-2000-100-1500-50-30-50-141-70041300-20027700271500-100-501186-14-700-2-100-46-38-18-20-249-500-200-200100-100-17500-1254-1000-275-6421500-142-1000-32-68-100-122100-22-100100-187200-89-3039200-50-50-500-426-5-5-10-10-1000500-500-100500-15-15-1500-1500-200100-100-21-61110-30-30-300-3001300-50300250-60-50-10-189-4000-4000-1336-375-20600254-136-136882-635-247-352532-15092890-340-550-123-117-10WHEATMAIZERICESOYBEANSWORLDTotal AMISArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCanadaChina MainlandEgyptEUIndiaIndonesiaJapanKazakhstanMexicoNigeriaPhilippinesRep.of KoreaRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaThailandTrkiyeUkraineUKUSViet NamIn thousand tonnes iNoteOnly significant changes(of more than 1 000 tonnes)are displayed in the table.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20225Crop monitorCrop conditions in AMIS countriesCrop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of 28 November.Crop conditions over the main growingareas for wheat,maize,rice,and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earthobservation data.Only crops that are in other-than-favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbolConditions at a glanceWheatIn the southern hemisphere,harvesting is picking up speedwith exceptional yields in Australia and poor yields in Ar-gentina.In the northern hemisphere,winter wheat is undermixed conditions going into winter dormancy.MaizeIn the northern hemisphere,harvesting is wrapping up withoverall mixed conditions,while in India,sowing of the Rabicrop is beginning.In the southern hemisphere,sowing con-tinues in Argentina,Brazil and South Africa.RiceIn China,harvesting of late rice is wrapping up while India istransitioning from Kharif rice to Rabi rice.In Southeast Asia,wet-season rice harvesting is at its peak in northern coun-tries while Indonesia wraps up dry-season rice harvesting.SoybeansIn the northern hemisphere,harvesting is wrapping up inCanada,India and Ukraine.In the southern hemisphere,sowing is beginning in Argentina under dryness,while pro-gressing in Brazil under favourable conditions.La Nia and Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ConditionsThe El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is currently in the LaNia phase.La Nia conditions will likely continue into early2023(76 percent chance for December to February and 59 per-cent chance for January to March),according to the IRI/CPC.Neutral ENSO conditions are likely after that.NegativeIndianOceanDipole(IOD)conditionsweakenedduringNovember,and neutral IOD conditions are forecast for Decem-ber,signifying the end of the negative IOD event.Persistent La Nia conditions since late 2020 have producedhigh-impact,multi-year droughts in eastern East Africa,south-ern South America,Central and Southern Asia,and southernNorth America.The forecast continuation of La Nia for sev-eral more months raises concerns about continued dry condi-tions in these areas.Recovery from severe drought can be alengthy process,in which several seasons of improved precipi-tation may be needed to replenish reservoirs and groundwater.Source:UCSB Climate Hazards Center6AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Crop monitorSummaries by cropWheatIn Australia,conditions are exceptional in most areas,despiteongoing flooding in parts of eastern Australia.Harvesting iswell underway in northern and western cropping regions.InArgentina,yields are poor in most areas due do drought asharvesting is wrapping up in the north and beginning in themain producing areas,many plots have been used as forage.Inthe EU,conditions are generally favourable,albeit with delayedsowing in the southern countries due to low soil moisture lev-els.In the UK,conditions are favourable.In Trkiye,sowing iswrapping up under dry conditions in the west.In Ukraine,con-ditions are generally favourable,albeit with persistent drynessin Odessa and disruptions/security concerns in the southernand eastern regions due to the ongoing war.In the RussianFederation,sowing is wrapping up under generally favourableconditions except for dryness in the southern Caucasus.InChina,winter wheat is under favourable conditions with amplesoil moisture.In India,sowing is beginning in the northern andcentral states.In the US,dry conditions across the Great Plainsfrom South Dakota to Texas continues to be a concern goinginto winter.In Canada,winter wheat sowing is complete andunder favourable conditions going into winter dormancy.MaizeIn the US,harvesting is wrapping up in the north under ex-ceptional conditions in Michigan and Wisconsin.In Canada,harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional conditions in On-tario.In Mexico,harvesting is ongoing for the spring-summerseason(larger season)under favourable conditions.In the EU,harvesting is wrapping up with below-average yields acrossmost of western and southern Europe due to droughts andheatwaves.In Ukraine,harvesting slowly continues with justover half the crop collected so far,so many crops will likely beharvested in during the winter or early spring.In India,sowingof the Rabi crop is beginning under favourable conditions.InBrazil,sowing of the spring-planted crop(smaller)is continuingunder favourable conditions with a slight reduction in the totalsown area expected compared to last year.In Argentina,sow-ing of the early-planted crop(typically larger season)continuesat a slow pace due to dryness.Recent rains have improvedconditions in some areas,but much of the intended sown areawill likely shift to the later-planted crop(typically smaller season)in hopes of better soil moisture conditions.In South Africa,ample rainfall since mid-October has supported sowing andearly development.ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonFavourablePoorNo DataWetDryExtreme EventConflictHotCoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-EconomicConditionsDrivers iPie chart descriptionEach slice represents a countrys share of total AMIS production(5-year average),with the main producing countries(95 percent of production)shown individuallyand the remaining 5 percent grouped into the Other AMIS Countries category.Sections within each country are weighted by the sub-national production statistics(5-year average)of the respective country and account for multiple cropping seasons(i.e.spring and winter wheat).The late vegetative to reproductive crop growthstages are generally the most sensitive periods for crop development.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20227Crop monitorRiceIn China,harvesting is wrapping up for late rice under mixedconditions due to persistent extreme heat and dry weatherduring the fertility period in the Yangtze River Basin.In India,harvesting of the Kharif crop is wrapping up in the southern andeastern states,while sowing is beginning for the Rabi crop.InIndonesia,harvesting of dry-season rice is wrapping up whilethe sowing of wet-season rice continues,albeit at a slower pacethan last year.In Viet Nam,harvesting of wet-season rice isongoing in the north.In the south,harvesting continues for theother wet-season rice(autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice),while sowing of dry-season rice begins in the Mekong Delta.In Thailand,harvesting of wet-season rice is ongoing undermixed conditions due to flooding in October that caused ex-tensive damage in the Northeastern region.In the Philippines,wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed conditions as thepassage of multiple tropical cyclones caused severe damageto crops in parts of Luzon and some parts of Visayas and Min-danao.In Brazil,sowing is wrapping up with a reduction in thetotal sown area.SoybeansIn Canada,harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional condi-tions in Ontario,Manitoba,and Quebec.In Ukraine,harvestingis wrapping up under generally favourable conditions outsideof the occupied territories.In India,harvesting is wrapping upin the major producing states under favourable conditions.InBrazil,sowing is progressing under favourable conditions de-spite earlier delays due to adverse weather.An increase in totalsown area is expected compared to last year.In Argentina,sowing is beginning in the main producing areas of BuenosAires,Entre Ros,Santa Fe and Crdoba,as recent rains im-proved soil moisture conditions.However,the lack of surfacesoil moisture might impact the sowing progress,with southernSanta Fe and northern Buenos Aires being the most affectedregions.Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countriescan be found in the GEOGLAM Early Warning Crop Mon-itor,published 28 November.ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonFavourablePoorNo DataWetDryExtreme EventConflictHotCoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-EconomicConditionsDrivers iSources and disclaimersThe Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners(in alphabetical order):Argentina(Buenos Aires Grains Exchange,INTA),Asia Rice Countries(AFSIS,ASEAN 3&Asia RiCE),Australia(ABARES&CSIRO),Brazil(CONAB&INPE),Canada(AAFC),China(CAS),EU(EC JRC MARS),Indonesia(LAPAN&MOA),International(CIMMYT,FAO,IFPRI&IRRI),Japan(JAXA),Mexico(SIAP),Russian Federation(IKI),South Africa(ARC&GeoTerraImage&SANSA),Thailand(GISTDA&OAE),Ukraine(NASU-NSAU&UHMC),USA(NASA,UMD,USGS-FEWS NET,USDA(FAS,NASS),Viet Nam(VAST&VIMHEMARD).The findings and conclusions in this joint multiagency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts,and do not necessarily reflect those of theindividual agencies represented by these experts.More detailed information on the GEOGLAM crop assessments is available at https:/cropmonitor.org.8AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Policy developmentsWheatIn the aftermath of a major drought,on 1 November Ar-gentina authorized delays in the exportation of wheat to sta-bilize domestic supplies,allowing companies to reschedulecontracted wheat exports without incurring the applicable 15percent fine.On 27 November,the Ministry of Supply and Internal Tradeof Egypt,in coordination with the Egyptian Commodity Ex-change(EGX)added wheat to the list of traded commodi-ties.In the wake of the war on Ukraine,the measure is ex-pected to spur market orientation in wheat markets,stabi-lize prices,and increase supply chain stakeholders abilityto make informed plans,investment and planting decisionsbased on real time trading operations,seasonality conditionsand current price data.With immediate effect,GASC startedcontributing wheat to mills through the EGX platform twice aweek.MaizeOn 8 November,the Ministry of Agriculture in Argentina is-sued Circular SSMA 05/2022 which increases the maize ex-port quota for the 2022/23 campaign to 20 million tonnescompared to 10 million tonnes previously.RiceOn 4 November,Australia and Vietnam initiated theMekong Delta Sustainable Rice Value Chain Project,a 4-yearpartnership that aims to connect Vietnamese smallholderrice-growing communities to high-value markets.New re-search will be launched by the University of Queensland todevelop disease-resistant rice varieties suitable for tropicalconditions.On 17 November,in view of persisting critical shortages inEgypt,rice was declared a strategic commodity with imme-diate effect for a three-month period(Prime Ministers Decreeno.4148 of 2022,published in Official Gazette no.46).Toprevent concealment,hoarding and speculation by produc-ers,suppliers,distributors,or sellers,domestic rice market-ing was brought under stricter competition and disclosure re-quirements,subject to the application of fines and penalties.By 27 November,all stakeholders were to notify the compe-tent directorates of supply and internal trade of the purposeof storage;quality(thin or broad grain)and quantity of ricekept in storage;packaging and shelf-life details;disclosure ofany company contracts/agreements.The deadline was sub-sequently extended twice to 4 December and 25 December2022.On 18 November,the Ministry of Supply and Internal Tradein Egypt capped the sale price of fine white rice(less than 3percent broken)in luxury packing at EGY 18(USD 0.74)perkilogram(Cabinet Resolution no.89 of 2022,published inOfficial Gazette no.46).To improve the availability of domes-tic supplies of paddy rice,Ministerial Resolution No.109 of2022 simultaneously required all farmers and owners of agri-cultural holdings to provide approximately 25 percent of allharvested rice to the competent supply and internaltrade au-thorities during the August-December 2022 supply season,which was recently extended until 15 January 2023.Failureto comply could mean farmers would not be eligible to re-ceive subsidized fertilizers and pesticides,and possibly notallowed to plant rice in the following year.On 29 November,the Department of Commerce in Indialifted the ban on exports of organic non-basmati rice includ-ing broken rice(Notification No.45/2015-2020.See also theOctober 2022 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor).On 15 November,Thailand approved a budget of THB 81billion(USD 2.2 billion)to implement its Rice Price GuaranteeScheme during fiscal year 2022-23,of which THB 18.7 billion(USD 515 million)will take the form of direct payments;THB7.5 billion(USD 207 million)will be used to stabilize prices;and THB 55 billion(USD 1.5 billion)to reduce farmers inputcosts and improve rice quality.SoybeansAfter implementing an initial preferential exchange rate atARS 200 per dollar measure in September,Argentina in-troduced a preferential exchange rate on the exportation ofsoybeans and soybean products at ARS 230 per dollar,ef-fective from 28 November until 31 December 2022(see alsothe October 2022 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor).BiofuelsOn 21 November,the Ministry of Mines and Energy in Brazilmaintained the mandatory blend ratio of biodiesel in dieselat 10 percent for the next 4 months.The blending mandatecould,however,increase to 15 percent in April 2023,follow-ing the National Energy Policy Council decision,subject tothe approval of the upcoming government in January 2023.On 15 November,Thailand authorized a 2-month extensionof the diesel tax break in order to lower energy costs.Policy developmentsAMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 20229Policy developmentsOn 11 November,the Department for International Trade inthe UK revoked import tariffs on renewable fuels from theUS and Canada.The Trade Remedies Authority indicatedthe removal of the levy on hydrotreated vegetable oil will beapplied retroactively from 30 January 2021.FertilizersOn 9 November,the EU unveiled plans to improve the avail-ability and affordability of fertilizers within the EU and abroad.Fertilizer businesses would be given priority for unhinderedaccess to natural gas in the case of rationing.In addition tofunds raised from measures like the cap on the market rev-enues of certain electricity generators,an amount of EUR450 million(USD 450 million)will be expedited from its agri-cultural reserve as part of the temporary crisis frameworkamendment to help farmers offset high input costs.The EUis championing fertilizer trade transparency and will launcha market observatory in 2023 to share data on production,use,prices and trade.On 11 November,the Ministry of Industry and Trade in theRussian Federation set the rate of export duty on all typesof fertilizers at 23.5 percent and the cut-off price at USD450 per tonne.On 28 November,the Russian Federation in-creased the export quota for nitrogen fertilizers by 750 000tonnes until the end of December 2022 to preserve pro-duction volumes and prevent overstocking of warehouses.In particular,the quota for urea exports was increased by400 000 tonnes;the export quota for ammonium nitrate-by200 000 tonnes;and that for urea-ammonium nitrate mixture-by 150 000 tonnes.On 2 November,the Department of Fertilizers in India ap-proved a proposal to introduce a Nutrient Based Subsidy forvarious nutrients such as nitrogen(INR 98.02-USD 1.2),phosphorus,(INR 98.02-USD 1.2),potash(INR 23.65-USD 0.3)and sulphur(INR 6.12-USD 0.1)for the Rabi sea-son starting 1 October 2022 to 31 March 2023.The totalamount of approved subsidies was INR 518.7 billion(USD6.4 billion),which includes support for indigenous fertilizersthrough freight subsidies.Across the boardExport restrictionsOn 1 November,the Minister of Economy in Indonesia ex-tended the waiver on the application of the export levy onpalm oil until the end of 2022 provided the reference pricedid not exceed USD 800 per tonne(see also the September2022 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor).On 15 November,the reference price reached USD 826.58 per tonne.Conse-quently,the export levy was reinstated at USD 85 per tonne.At the same time,the export tax was raised from USD 18 pertonne to USD 33 per tonne.Food securityOn 1 November,India exempted with immediate effect allwholesalers and large chain retailers from complying withthe Stock Limit Order that was enacted on 8 October 2021.Spiking domestic and international prices of edible oils andoilseeds had caused significant hoarding of soybean seeds.In view of recent price declines,wholesalers and large retail-ers in all states and territories have now entire discretion toset stocks of edible oil and oilseeds of all brands and varietiesat levels they deem appropriate.On 8 November,the National Food Agency(NFA)in Indone-sia began implementing Presidential Regulation No.125(24October 2022)to establish government food reserves andfulfil up to 5 percent of domestic consumption needs for 11staple commodities.The new rules also seek to ensure ad-equate food supplies to low-income communities in caseof shortages,price spikes,natural disasters,supply chaindisruptions,and other emergencies.Food reserves will beconstituted through the purchase of domestic production atspecific reference purchase prices(HAP)or government pur-chase prices(HPP)set by NFA.Several institutions are in-volved in preparing technical procedures,including the Min-istry of Finance;Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs);State-Owned Bank Association;and agricultural SOEs.Un-der the supervision of the State Logistics Agency(BULOG),a first phase will focus on laying out detailed technical regu-lations on the planning,procurement and distribution targetsfor national and regional stocks of rice,maize and soybeans.On 24 November,as part international humanitarian assis-tance,Ukraine issued a government decree allocating UAH900 million(USD 24.5 million)to the Ministry of Internal Af-fairs for the purchase of wheat and maize supplies to Sudan,Yemen,Kenya and Nigeria.Climate changeOn 11 November,the European Commission,Parliamentand Council provisionally agreed to increase the EUs targetfor net carbon removals by natural sinks to 310 million tonnesof CO2 equivalent by 2030.New regulations on the LandUse,Land Use Change and Forestry(LULUCF)are set toenhance the quality of monitoring,reporting and verificationof emissions and removals,using more accurate and pre-cise data monitoring,including remote sensing.Under the10AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Policy developmentsLIFE programme,financial support will also be made avail-able to allow EU member States to expand their carbon sinksthrough sustainable land management and upgraded strate-gic plans as part of the Common Agricultural Policy(CAP). iNoteOnly AMIS participants are marked in bold.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202211International pricesM/MY/YGOI311.1 0.5% 9.9%Wheat300.2-2.9%-1.1%Maize314.4-2.0% 12.8%Rice183.1 1.8% 10.3%Soybeans308.0 2.6% 18.2%International Grains Council(IGC)Grains andOilseeds Index(GOI)and GOI sub-IndicesNov 2022Average*Change*Jan 2000=100,derived from daily export quotationsWheatNovember saw mixed price trends across key origins,asconcerns about unfavourable weather in Argentina and theUS contrasted with worries about global demand amid poorworld economic conditions.The Russian Federations tempo-rary withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative initially pro-pelled prices higher but values declined thereafter,as the mid-November extension of the deal eased supply fears.Despitesub-optimal growing conditions for domestic winter crops,USprices fell on disappointing export demand.EU offers(France)also receded amid stiff competition from Black Sea origins,al-beit a steady pace of loadings and renewed buying by Chinaoffered support.In contrast,quotations in the Russian Feder-ation firmed against the backdrop of accelerating shipments,although with prices termed nominal at times.MaizeA softer tone prevailed in world maize markets during Novem-ber,with the IGC sub-Index dropping by an average of 2 per-cent.There was a pullback in spot US prices,which turnedlower on a seasonal increase in supplies and some improve-ment in Mississippi River logistics.With generally tepid overseasdemand,concerns about competitiveness also featured.Quo-tations in Argentina drifted lower,but with market activity rathersubdued.Deep sea prices in Ukraine were poorly defined.De-spite the confirmed extension of the shipping corridor agree-ment,fresh business was limited,partly on concerns aboutshipping delays.In Brazil,old crop values firmed on a strongpace of shipments,which included the loading of a first vesseldestined for China.RiceDespite harvesting pressure in several key exporters,averageinternational rice prices were higher m/m.Thai export offers ad-vanced on currency movements and ideas of stronger demandfrom Indonesia,where the state grain buyer received approval toimport up to 500 000 tonnes over the coming months to replen-ish reserves.Vietnamese quotes were supported by prospectsof sales to Indonesia,and as tight spot availabilities under-pinned.In Pakistan,values advanced on slow new crop arrivalsand ongoing uncertainty over the impact of heavy floods onproduction,while Indian prices ticked higher amid steady salesto regular buyers.SoybeansWith gains at all origins,average soybean values advancedby 3 percent m/m in November,tied to supportive fundamen-tals and external influences.Although worries about Chinesedemand persisted,US quotations were buoyed by firmer ex-port demand and solid local processing,while gains in soyaproduct prices and outside markets underpinned at times.Thisoutweighed pressure from improving logistics and outlooks forlarge South American supplies.Cautious farmer selling and ru-mours of a more stringent biodiesel blending mandate buoyedprices in Brazil despite an anticipated record harvest,while of-fers in Argentina were nominally firmer.At that origin,supportfrom building crop worries was countered by pressure from in-creased farmer sales,which followed the re-introduction of thesoy-dollar programme.GOIWheatMaizeRiceSoybeans2021 November283.2303.4278.7165.9260.5December285.6297.8283.1163.9269.22022 January294.5288.4294.2166.8288.9February315.4295.4310.4167.8323.0March353.4353.6369.7169.6344.0April349.6354.8358.9171.6336.0May352.6375.3347.9177.3334.3June343.3353.8335.7177.0334.1July308.2302.5299.7174.3306.3August309.4292.8306.7174.1313.0September306.4299.9307.4179.5303.3October309.6309.2320.7179.9300.2November311.1300.2314.4183.1308.0IGC commodity price indices(.January 2000=100.)Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22160204248292336380GOIWheatMaizeRiceSoybeansIGC commodity price indices12AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022International pricesSelected export prices,currencies and indicesJFM A MJJASO ND180227273600202220202021JFM A MJJASO ND180223267570202220202021JFM A MJJASO ND360387413600202220202021JFM A MJJASO ND300347393720202220202021Daily quotations of selected export prices(USD/tonnes,2020-2022)WHEAT(US No.2 H.R.W.)MAIZE(US No.2 Yellow)RICE(Thai 100%B)SOYBEANS(US No.2 Yellow)Wheat(US No.2,HRW)28-Nov406444376-8.6% 8.0%Maize(US No.2,Yellow)30-Nov321357323-10.0%-0.5%Rice(Thai 100%B)28-Nov437418390 4.5% 12.1%Soybeans(US No.2,Yellow)25-Nov598614485-2.6% 23.3ily quotations of selected export pricesEffective dateQuotationMonth agoYear ago%changeM/M%changeY/YUSD/tonneArgentinaARS162.1-6.1%-38.2%AustraliaAUD1.53.8%-9.5%BrazilBRL5.3-0.4%5.3nadaCAD1.31.9%-6.5%ChinaCNY7.20.3%-10.9%EgyptEGP24.4-17.1%-35.7%EUEUR1.03.7%-10.5%IndiaINR81.60.8%-8.7%IndonesiaIDR15661.2-1.5%-8.9%JapanJPY142.03.6%-19.7%KazakhstanKZT463.81.8%-6.9%Rep.of KoreaKRW1354.35.3%-12.6%MexicoMXN19.42.8%7.4%NigeriaNGN441.1-1.4%-7.0%PhilippinesPHP57.42.2%-12.4%Russian Fed.RUB60.21.5 .7%Saudi ArabiaSAR3.80.0%-0.2%South AfricaZAR17.53.7%-11.0%ThailandTHB36.34.4%-8.9%TrkiyeTRY18.6-0.1%-41.9%UKGBP0.93.9%-12.7%UkraineUAH36.80.1%-27.9%Viet NamVND24810.9-2.0%-8.6%AMIS countries currencies against US DollarAMISCountriesCurrencyNov 2022AverageMonthlyChangeAnnualChangeFAO Food Price IndexNov 2021-Nov 2022Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22130135140145150155160165Nominal Broad Dollar IndexNov 2021-Nov 2022Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22110115120125130AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202213Futures marketsMarkets were bearish in November for grains,but thedownward potential seems limited.Soybean futures arestill bullishContinuing concerns over the congested US waterwaysystem have kept US wheat forward curves in contangoDespite a consistent decline in November,volatilitymeasures remain in the upper historical rangeMovement in managed money suggest a declininginterest of financial investros in agricultural futuresMONTHLY PRICE TRENDOverall market sentimentFutures pricesOver the past month,a bearish undertone developed on grainfutures markets with the price of wheat and maize down be-tween 2 and 5 percent in both US and European markets com-pared to October.The renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiativehas taken away some uncertainty,especially in wheat,whereprices have reached their lowest level of the year.However,the potential to decline further seems floored by low carry-overstocks,which would not be able to cushion many adverse mar-ket developments.US wheat crop conditions for South Amer-ican maize are closely monitored in this regard as are signs ofany loosening of the lockdown restrictions in China,which mightincrease demand for grains.For its part,soybean futures displayed a much firmer tone inNovember,increasing by about 4 percent m/m in view of strongdemand and concerns about South American yields.Despiterecent spells of dryness,maize and soybean production in Brazilare still expected to reach a record,which should help rebuildsome carry-over stocks.Volumes&volatilityVolumes were up this month compared to October for wheaton CBOT and Euronext as well as for the CBOT maize con-tract,by 23,35 and 39 percent,respectively.This rebound involume supports the narrative of a seasonally high hedging de-mand at this time of the year for grain exporters.Interestingly,on two days in November,more wheat contracts were tradedon Euronext compared to the CBOT,illustrating the currentlyvivid wheat exporting activity in Europe and the rather tepidtrading activity in the US in view of the countrys still loggedbarge system.By contrast,volumes were down by 39 percenton the CBOT for soybean contracts in November,in a contextof steadily declining participation from managed money over themonth.Historical volatility and implied volatility for wheat showed asteady decline in November;both measures are now back tolevels last seen in January 2022,possibly because geopoliticalrisks are less of a driving force in grain markets as compared tothe February-May 2022 period.The situation nevertheless re-mains highly volatile with a level of implied volatility in wheat thatis higher than the average observed over the past ten years.Bycontrast,implied volatility for maize and soybean,while initiallyhigh after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,has fallen back torelatively normal levels.Forward curvesIn Chicago,wheat futures contracts showed a steepening con-tango in November,indicating that the concerns over logisticalbottlenecks are still far from resolved.The front month wheat fu-tures might decline further until US wheat becomes competitivefor exports,while prices far out on the curve entail higher carrycosts and storage needs.Both maize and soybean forward curves have flattened inNovember.Interestingly,new crop futures prices(with contractmonths dated after Q3 2023)display a lower level than old cropfutures prices in maize and soybean,suggesting that marketparticipants currently expect fewer tensions next year for thesecommodities.Euronext wheat still shows a steep backwarda-tion,i.e.a higher price on the front months of the curve reflectingthe still vivid level of activity of European exporters.Investment flowsOver the last month,managed money long positions in CBOTmaize and soybean were trimmed,showing that speculativemarket participants remain in risk-off mode.In the same vein,managed money participants were net sellers of wheat andreached their lowest net short position on CBOT wheat sinceMay 2019.Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat3 149.8 23.2%-17.8%Maize140.3-18.1%-24.8%Euronext futures volumes and price evolutionAverage daily volume(1000 tonnes)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat328.7-3.4%-2.2%Maize314.5-5.1% 13.3%Prices(USD/t)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat15 724.3 35.1%-15.1%Maize42 161.6 39.0%-10.5%Soybean21 781.4-38.8%-3.0%CME futures volumes and prices evolutionAverage daily volume(1000 tonnes)Nov 2022M/MY/YWheat302.7-5.2% 1.2%Maize263.3-2.3% 16.3%Soybean529.9 4.2% 16.0%Prices(USD/t)14AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Market indicatorsDaily quotations from leading exchanges-nearby futuresNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22250300350400450500550USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22200250300350400450500USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22250300350400450500USD per tonneNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 2230040050060070080090010001100USD per tonneWheatMaizeEU(France-NYSE Euronext)Milling WheatUSA(KCBT)Hard Red WheatSouth Africa(Safex)WheatEU(NYSE Liffe)USA(CBOT)South Africa(Safex)YellowChina(DCE)RiceSoybeanUSA(CBOT)Rough RiceChina(ZCE)Milled RiceUSA(CBOT)China(Dalian)Argentina(MATba)Brazil(BMF)CFTC commitments of tradersMajor categories net length as percentage of open interest*Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0%Long(bought)Short(sold)Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0%Long(bought)Short(sold)WheatMaizeCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged MoneyCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged MoneyNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0%Long(bought)Short(sold)Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0%Long(bought)Short(sold)RiceSoybeanCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged MoneyCommercialsSwap PositionsManaged Money*Disaggregated futures only.Though not all positions are reflected in the charts,total long positions always equal total short positions.AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202215Market indicatorsForward curves260280300320340360EUR per tonneDec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24200220240260280300320340360EUR per tonneNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-22700750800850900950USD cent per bushelDec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24520560600640680720USD cent per bushelDec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 24Jun 24Jul 24Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2214161820USD per hundredweightNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 2413001350140014501500USD cent per bushelNov 22Dec 22Jan 23Feb 23Mar 23Apr 23May 23Jun 23Jul 23Aug 23Sep 23Oct 23Nov 23Dec 23Jan 24Feb 24Mar 24Apr 24May 2429-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-2229-Sep-2227-Oct-2229-Nov-22Euronext wheat(EBM)Euronext maize(EMA)CBOT wheatCBOT maizeCBOT riceCBOT soybeanHistorical and implied volatilitiesNov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22020406080100120Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 220102030405060708090100Historical Volatility(30 days)Implied Volatility(Daily)WheatMaizeRough riceSoybeansWheatMaizeRough riceSoybeans iAMIS market indicatorsSeveral of the indicators covered in this report are updated regularly on the AMIS website.These,as well as other market indicators,can be found at:http:/www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring/indicators/.For more information about forward curves see the feature article in No.75 February AMIS MarketMonitor 2020.16AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Fertilizer outlook020040060080010001200140016001800USD per tonneNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Ammonia-US Gulf NOLAAmmonia-Western EuropeUrea-US Gulf NOLAUrea-Black Sea PrillAmmonia and urea(spot prices)02004006008001000120014001600USD per tonne2.23.34.45.56.67.78.89.911.0USD per MMBtuNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Ammonia averageUrea averageNatural gas(right axis)Ammonia average,urea average and natural gas(spot prices)1002003004005006007008009001000USD per tonneNov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22DAP-US Gulf NOLADAP-BalticPotash-US Gulf NOLAPotash-BalticPotash and phosphate(spot prices)Fertilizer prices continued their downward trend in November,but remain high relative to historical levels.The supply outlookimproved as nitrogen fertilizer production restarted in Europeand fertilizer exports from the Black Sea might see fewer re-strictions in the coming months after the extension of the BlackSea Grain Initiative.Natural gas prices decreased in November,with relativelylow demand for heating during most of the month in theNorthern Hemisphere.Inventories,particularly in Europe andAsia,remain well-stocked.Ammonia prices were down in November.Plants continuedto resume production as lower natural gas prices made pro-duction economically viable.Despite the continued disruptionof Russian ammonia exports due to the war in Ukraine,globalsupplies of ammonia seem sufficient.Countries who previ-ously relied on ammonia imports from the Black Sea havefound other suppliers,and exports from China have beensteadily increasing.Lower industrial demand due to the globaleconomic slowdown also put downward pressure on prices.Urea prices decreased in November,but in view of theirstill high levels there is concern that farmers might be forgo-ing purchases.Import demand began to slacken in Europe,which sent urea producers to search for other markets-par-ticularly from North Africa.A large Indian tender in Novemberdoes not seem to have had a significant impact on prices.DAP prices decreased in November in an overall calm mar-ket environment.The U.S.phosphate export market had aslow month,and Chinese exports were reported to be downsubstantially compared to a year ago.On the importer side,demand was down in India as DAP purchases concluded forthe season and in Brazil due in part to the devaluation of thecountrys currency.Potash prices decreased further in November as global sup-plies seem sufficient despite sanctions still reducing exportsfrom Belarus.Imports in China were about the same as lastyear with Canada being the largest supplier.Trading in Brazilwas limited in November due to lower demand and highstockpiles while inventories in India remain low.Ammonia-US Gulf NOLA1044.0-1.6 1.41402.2 907.0Ammonia-Western Europe1171.952.4-7.4 29.31611.0 1088.3Ammonia avg.across regions1081.822.0-3.9 20.41416.9 997.9Urea-US Gulf519.110.6-12.1-34.0823.1486.9Urea-Black Sea516.22.5-2.9-42.7890.0488.7Urea avg.across regions563.711.9-11.9-35.0888.8563.7DAP-US Gulf665.625.6-8.2-8.4954.0665.6DAP-Baltic678.81.4-5.6-1.2898.5678.8Potash-Baltic-215.0195.0Potash-US Gulf NOLA528.86.0-7.3-22.0799.5528.8Natural gas5.31.0-6.1 5.28.83.7Nov-22averageNov-22std.dev.%changelast month*%changelast year*12 monthhigh12-monthlowAll prices shown are in US dollarsSource:Own elaboration based on Bloomberg*Estimated using available weekly data to date. iChart and tables descriptionAmmonia and urea:Overview of nitrogen-based fertilizer weekly prices(averaged by month)in the US Gulf,Western Europe and Black Sea.Potash&phos-phate:Overview of phosphate and potassium-based fertilizer weekly prices(averaged by month)in the US Gulf,Baltic and Vancouver.Ammonia&urea aver-ages:Monthly average prices from ammonias US Gulf NOLA,Middle East,Black Sea and Western Europe were averaged to obtain ammonia average prices;monthly average prices from ureas US Gulf NOLA,US Gulf Prill,Middle East Prill,Black Sea Prill and Mediterranean were averaged to obtain Urea Average prices.Natural gas:Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price from ICE up to December 2017 and from Bloomberg(BGAP)from January 2018 onwards.Prices are intradayprices averaged by month.Natural gas is used as major input to produce nitrogen-based fertilizers.DAP:Diammonium PhosphatAMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 202217Ocean freight marketsDry bulk freight market developmentsBaltic Dry Index(BDI)1299.0-28.4%-53.3%sub-indices:Capesize1398.6-33.9%-62.2%Panamax1607.4-23.2%-43.4%Supramax1214.5-26.6%-48.9ltic Handysize Index(BHSI)784.8-20.3%-52.2%Nov-22averageChangeM/MY/YSource:Baltic Exchange,IGC.Base period for BDI:4 January 1985=1000;for BHSI:23 May 2006=1000;for GOFI:1 January 2013=100IGC Grains and Oilseeds FreightIndex(GOFI)153.9-11.6%-28.7%sub-Indices:Argentina200.5-10.7%-27.5%Australia99.3-17.7%-23.5%Brazil197.1-14.1%-28.5%Black Sea168.0-7.2%-31.3nada117.1-8.8%-32.0%Europe131.2-8.6%-33.2%US121.5-11.5%-26.9%Nov-22averageChangeM/MY/YNov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22-100-50050GOFIBDIBDI and IGC GOFINov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22-3003060ArgentinaAustraliaBrazilSelected IGC GOFI sub-indicesWith surplus vessel supply and limited charterer demand insome regions,freight rates across the dry bulk complex aver-aged sharply lower month-on-month in November.After themonthly drop,the benchmark Baltic Dry Index(BDI)wasjust one-half of its year ago level.While the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative wastermed positive for the freight market,broader uncertaintyabout global economic prospects and seaborne trade con-tinued to weigh on market sentiment.This was highlighted bydisappointing October trade data for China which showedthat soyabean imports were the smallest for that particularcalendar month in eight years.However,more recent pur-chasesandreportsfromtradersindicatedthatarrivalsshouldpick-up given the need to rebuild supplies.Participants also welcomed recent news of Chinas easing ofsome COVID-19-related restrictions,which prompted spec-ulationaboutapotentialupturnindemandforbulkcommodi-ties.Still,average Capesize earnings fell by one-third,withongoing demand seen as insufficient to absorb available ton-nage.Panamax rates declined by around one-quarter,with initiallosses tied to lacklustre minerals demand in the Atlantic.Ample vessel supplies in Asia pressured Supramax rates,asdid slow trading at the US Gulf,where cargo movement wasconstrained by complicated river logistics.Handysize ratesalso posted steep losses on reduced enquiry levels in theMediterranean and rising bulker availability in South Americaand Asia.With average bunker prices only slightly softer month-on-month,the 12 percent average monthly drop in the IGCGrains and Oilseeds Freight Index(GOFI)was chiefly at-tributed to reduced vessel hire prices,notably on routes outof Australia. iSource:International Grains CouncilBaltic Dry Index(BDI):A benchmark indicator issued daily by the Baltic Exchange,providing assessed costs of moving raw materials on ocean going vessels.Comprises sub-Indices for three segments:Capesize,Panamax and Supramax.The Baltic Handysize Index excluded from the BDI from 1 March 2018.IGCGrains and Oilseeds Freight Index(GOFI):A trade-weighted composite measure of ocean freight costs for grains and oilseeds,issued daily by the InternationalGrains Council.Includes sub-Indices for seven main origins(Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Black Sea,Canada,the EU and the USA).Constructed based on nominalHSS(heavy grains,soybeans,sorghum)voyage rates on selected major routes.Capesize:Vessels with deadweight tonnage(DWT)above 80,000 DWT,primarilytransportingcoal,ironoreandotherheavyrawmaterialsonlong-haulroutes.Panamax:Carrierswithcapacityof60,000-80,000DWT,mostlygearedtotransportingcoal,grains,oilseeds and other bulks,including sugar and cement.Supramax/Handysize:Ships with capacity below 60,000 DWT,accounting for the majority ofthe worlds ocean-going vessels and able to transport a wide variety of cargos,including grains and oilseeds.18AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Explanatory noteThe notions of tightening and easing used in the summary ta-ble of Markets at a glance reflect judgmental views that takeinto account market fundamentals,inter-alia price developmentsand short-term trends in demand and supply,especially changesin stocks.All totals(aggregates)are computed from unrounded data.Worldsupply and demand estimates/forecasts are based on the latestdata published by FAO,IGC and USDA.For the former,they alsotake into account information provided by AMIS focal points(hencethe notion FAO-AMIS).World estimates and forecasts producedby the three sources may vary due to several reasons,such as vary-ing release dates and different methodologies used in constructingcommodity balances.Specifically:PRODUCTION:Wheat production data from all three sources re-fer to production occurring in the first year of the marketing seasonshown(e.g.crops harvested in 2016 are allocated to the 2016/17marketing season).Maize and rice production data for FAO-AMISrefertocropsharvestedduringthefirstyearofthemarketingseason(e.g.2016 for the 2016/17 marketing season)in both the northernand southern hemisphere.Rice production data for FAO-AMIS alsoinclude northern hemisphere production from secondary crops har-vested in the second year of the marketing season(e.g.2017 forthe 2016/17 marketing season).By contrast,rice and maize datafor USDA and IGC encompass production in the northern hemi-sphere occurring during the first year of the season(e.g.2016 forthe 2016/17 marketing season),as well as crops harvested in thesouthern hemisphere during the second year of the season(e.g.2017 for the 2016/17 marketing season).For soybeans,the latterapproach is used by all three sources.SUPPLY:Defined as production plus opening stocks by all threesources.UTILIZATION:For all three sources,wheat,maize and rice utiliza-tion includes food,feed and other uses(namely,seeds,industrialuses and post-harvest losses).For soybeans,it comprises crush,food and other uses.However,for all AMIS commodities,the usecategories may be grouped differently across sources and may alsoinclude residual values.TRADE:Data refer to exports.For wheat and maize,trade is re-ported on a July/June basis,except for USDA maize trade esti-mates,which are reported on an October/September basis.Wheattrade data from all three sources includes wheat flour in wheat grainequivalent,while the USDA also considers wheat products.For rice,trade covers shipments from January to December of the secondyear of the respective marketing season.For soybeans,trade is re-ported on an October/September basis by FAO-AMIS and the IGC,while USDA data are based on local marketing years except for Ar-gentina and Brazil which are reported on an October/Septemberbasis.Trade between European Union member states is excluded.STOCKS:In general,world stocks of AMIS crops refer to the sum ofcarry-overs at the close of each countrys national marketing year.For soybeans,stock levels reported by the USDA are based on lo-cal marketing years,except for Argentina and Brazil,which are ad-justed to October/September.For maize and rice,global estimatesmay vary across sources because of differences in the allocation ofproduction in southern hemisphere countries.For more information on AMIS Supply and Demand,please viewAMIS Supply and Demand Balances Manual.AMIS-GEOGLAM Crop CalendarSelected leading producers*WHEATJFMAMJJASONDChina(18%)springPlantingcHarvestwintercccHarvestPlantingEU(17%)winterccHarvestPlantingIndia(14%)winterccHarvestPlantingRussian Fed.(12%)springPlantingccHarvestwintercccHarvestPlantingUS(6%)springccHarvestPlantingwinterccHarvestPlantingMAIZEJFMAMJJASONDUS(30%)PlantingcccHarvestChina(24%)northPlantingccHarvestsouthPlantingccHarvestBrazil(10%)1st cropccHarvestPlantingc2nd cropPlantingcccHarvestArgentina(5%)HarvestPlantingccEU(5%)PlantingcccHarvestRICEJFMAMJJASONDChina(28%)intermediary cropPlantingcccHarvestlate cropPlantingccHarvestearly cropPlantingccHarvestIndia(24%)kharifPlantingccHarvestrabicHarvestIndonesia(7%)main JavaccHarvestPlantingsecond JavaPlantingcccHarvestViet Nam(5%)winter-springccHarvestPlantingsummer/autumnPlantingccHarvestwinterPlantingccHarvestThailand(4%)main seasonPlantingcHarvestcsecond seasonPlantingcccHarvestSOYBEANSJFMAMJJASONDBrazil(39%)ccHarvestPlantingcUS(30%)PlantingcccHarvestArgentina(12%)cccHarvestPlantingChina(5%)PlantingccHarvestIndia(3%)PlantingccHarvest*Percentages refer to the global share of production accordingto the latest AMIS-FAO estimates available for the most recent seasonPlanting(peak)Harvest(peak)PlantingHarvestcWeather conditions in thisperiod are critical for yieldsGrowing periodFor more information on AMIS Supply andDemand,please view AMIS Supply and De-mand Balance ManualMain sourcesBloomberg,CFTC,CME Group,FAO,GEOGLAM,IFPRI,IGC,OECD,Reuters,USDA,US Federal Reserve,WTO2023 AMIS Market Monitor release datesFebruary 2,March 2,April 6,May