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1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 24 to 29.Analyst Certification on page 22.Valuation&Risk on page 21.12905941 Consumer&Retail Gobble vs.wobble for Consumer Industry Overview Value shines in Retail,issuance/AI overhang,jobs debated Themes last week included a refreshed lo

3、ok at the Consumer via bifurcated retailer 3Qs,sustained overhang of supply,reversal in AI-related tone given debate on overspend vs.TAM,and further uncertainty around economic data vs.rate policy.We characterize initial Retail results as mixed;consumers remain choiceful while also compelled by valu

4、e,newness,and seasonal events,but we heard incremental signs of moderation(particularly at low-end).Discretionary&home improvement lagged,specialty was mixed,and hardlines,toys,&essentials outperformed,though we think share shifts contributed as off-price and Walmart led with better home&apparel cat

5、egory performance.New issuance($48bn)beat est.,pushing Nov to record$137bn,led by$15bn from Amazon though this did not weigh on high-quality Retail spreads as much as we anticipated.In economics,Sept payrolls were strong(+119k vs.65k est.)led by service-sector hiring and improved participation,but t

6、his was held back by a tick higher in unemployment rate to 4.4%and negative revision to Jul-Aug periods.UofMich Nov sentiment also hit the lowest levels since mid-22(51.0 vs.50.6 est).This leaves the Fed with mixed labor&consumer signals relative to disinflation trends,but Dec rate cut probability r