《美银BofA：全球经济展望：2026年K型经济与K型风险并存的分化格局-251123（英文版）（78页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美银BofA：全球经济展望：2026年K型经济与K型风险并存的分化格局-251123（英文版）（78页）.pdf（78页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 76 to 77.12905057 Global Economics Year Ahead 2026:K-shaped economies with K-shaped risks 2025 themes are still very relevant to 2026 2025 themes Trump policies and the associated uncertainty,AI boom,China overcapacity,record fiscal defic

3、its and excess global liquidity are still relevant but morphing somewhat,changing the nature of the relevant risks for the global economy.Critical for our macroeconomic forecast is whether the imbalances and tensions created by 2025 themes are sustainable,how imbalances will narrow,and how public po

4、licies will react to these tensions,either cushioning or exacerbating them.Uncertainty levels will remain elevated,but we expect Trump to move to more market-friendly policies ahead of the midterm elections and focus on deregulation and de-escalation of trade tensions.Our out-of-consensus view on th

5、e US and China growth Despite 2025 being characterized by policy uncertainty,the global economy will likely grow 3.4%.For 2026 and 2027,we expect this trend to continue.We have revised up our global growth forecast by 0.3pp and 0.1pp to 3.3%and 3.4%,respectively.Our forecast changes are mostly expla

6、ined by our growth upgrades on the US and China to 2.4%and 4.7%,respectively.Euro Area growth will continue lagging at 1%.Despite risks to the outlook remaining two-sided,lower policy uncertainty and additional policy stimulus among the major economies explain our more constructive baseline scenario