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1、Black Friday:The icing on the cake for US retail?Allianz Research27 November 2025Allianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 12-19The true cost of tariffs for US consumers and firmsPage 20-23 Europe:Buying great again?Page 5-11 Winter has not yet come:Still waiting for ta

2、riff effectsPage 24-30 Future challenges and drivers Three trends to track 27 November 2025 Months of trade uncertainty and higher tariffs havent stopped US shoppers from adding to their carts throughout the year.Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are likely to hit a new record this year but the US

3、 consumption engine has been resilient throughout the tariff uncertainty.Advance Census Bureau data show that retail and food service sales in September were 4.3%higher year-to-date,putting the industry on track for its best performance since 2022,with turnover up by+4%this year(vs.+3%in Europe).Fro

4、ntloading before tariffs kicked in provided a strong head start,and the momentum did not falter as initially feared,supported by lower interest rates,solid jobs and contained inflation.More importantly,companies food&beverages,electronics and personal care chose to absorb tariff-related costs rather

5、 than passing them on to consumers,with margins deteriorating by 1-3%.Starting in Q3,prices have started rising gradually in toys,apparel and furniture,while they still remain limited in food and electronic goods.Meanwhile,rather than bring a flood of production back onshore,US companies are recalib

6、rating their global footprint,expanding into strategically located,lower-cost markets to preserve competitiveness and hedge future trade risk while also reducing their exposure to China(US imports down-36%since April).In the toy and apparel industries,for example,demand is shifting from China to Vie