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1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 19 to 20.12891496 U.S.Insurance Aprs-moi,le deluge:declining solvency at the NFIP and what happens next Industry Overview What is the NFIP?In the 1950s and 1960s,private market homeowners underwriters increasingly excluded flood insurance

3、 as a covered peril.Following 1965s Hurricane Betsy,the first“billion dollar”loss event in the U.S.,the government stepped into this void to help stabilize property markets in the face of what seemed like unpredictable flood risk and created a government insurance scheme called the National Flood In

4、surance Program(NFIP).Over the past 45 years,the NFIP has operated at a cumulative loss of about$25 billion and projects incurring an average of an additional$2-3 billion of underwriting losses over the next half-decade.These costs are ultimately absorbed by taxpayers and have been funded by increme

5、ntal issuance of U.S.government debt.Flood insurance a bargain for the riskiest properties While the NFIP runs at a loss,it does not incur losses every year.Four events combine to explain most of the losses:2005s Hurricane Katrina(the largest of all NFIP loss events),2012s Hurricane Sandy,2017s Hurr

6、icane Harvey and 2024s Hurricane Helene.Each of these events occurred in regions where flooding has been a persistent and well-established risk alongside North Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricane risk.The pricing of NFIP flood policies in the areas impacted by these events is widely regarded as being