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1、 Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to Other Important Disclosures for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securitie

2、s does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment d

3、ecision.Refer to important disclosures on page 22 to 25.Analyst Certification on page 20.Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 18.12890700 The Oil Gusher Vol at the front,value at the back Industry Overview Key takeaways Bounce from$60:In the last 3 years,Brent has spent c330 days outside of our$60-80

4、range in spot-and 0 days in futures As a result,the Brent strip has shifted shape from backwardation to contango two years out We show how this flattening of the oil curve-plus negative positioning-has contributed to Big Oils equity re-rating Whats new?Shifting the shape of oil The shape of the oil

5、forward curve has shifted from backwardation of as much as$15/bbl in 2-year time spreads 18 months ago to mild contango today.In the process,spot Brent oil prices have dropped by$30/bbl from$90/bbl at the front of the curve.However,Brent strip has consistently stayed within a much narrower$65-75/bbl

6、 price range 2-years out along the forward curve and coincidentally underwriting our long-term fundamental$60-80/bbl Brent forecast range(unchanged throughout).So what?Storage incentives from contango The re-emergence of contango in oils forward pricing also increases expected returns from storage i