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1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 27 to 30.Analyst Certification on page 26.Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 22.12891506 Restaurants Industry 3QC25 preview:Demand softens further;look for share gainers,insulated P&Ls Price Objective Change SSSG slows further through the

3、 quarter Black Box industry SSSG improved q/q(to+1.9%3Q25 from+1.5%in 2Q25)and through the quarter;according to Bloomberg Second Measure credit and debit card data(see Oct 7 report),observed sales growth at the median restaurant grew 1%in July and slowed to+0.3%in August,before turning negative in S

4、eptember(-1.6%).According to BAC aggregated credit and debit card data(see Oct 13 report)which track a wider sample of restaurants the slowdown was even more pronounced among independents(independent restaurants slowed from+5.3%in August to+0.8%in September while growth at restaurant chains decelera

5、ted from-0.9%in August to-1.9%in September).The September exit rate was negative across categories,with QSR ex-pizza posting the smallest decline(-0.6%y/y)and Pizza the greatest(-5.9%).Broader commodity trends to persist in 4Q25 3Q25 showed continued deflation in commodities like wheat(-8.0%),oil(-6

6、.6%),soybeans(-1.7%),sugar(-6.5%)and corn(-3.8%)but at a slower pace than in 2Q25 (see report:Restaurants Industry:Commodities update:signs of inflation uptick,though still mostly lower than July).Coffee prices inflated y/y but decelerated to+42.4%in 3Q25 from+50.5%in 2Q25.Beef inflation accelerated