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1、2025 年全球新能源年全球新能源展望展望-哪些哪些可行，哪些不可行可行，哪些不可行Scott Darling,Catherine Li,2025 年年 6 月月 23 日日Equity Asia ResearchThis research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Privat

2、e Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.Pleas

3、e refer to the appendixfor the Analyst Certification,Important Disclosures and Important Disclaimer.（本报告为本报告为2025 年年6 月月19 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准）2石油存在上行风险，但重申海通的布伦特观点石油存在上行风险，但重申海通的布伦特观点以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能会继续给油价带来上行风险，尤其是在伊朗能源基础设施最近遭到袭击之后。伊朗的Kharg油库处理着该国90%以上的石油出口（伊朗的石油出口占全球石油供应量的2%），该油库的任何

4、中断都会给油价带来进一步的上行空间（布伦特原油今年以来的平均价格为每桶70美元，而海通预测25财年布伦特原油价格为每桶70美元，26财年为每桶65美元)。这对高石油贝塔值的公司来说是利好因素。然而，我们认为任何降级都可能导致石油市场重回供过于求的局面，石油需求面临下行风险，石油供应面临上行风险，尤其是欧佩克+石油政策带来的风险。石油供应的盈亏平衡点各不相同，中东地区低于 20 美元/桶（例如，沙特阿美石油公司的提炼成本为 3 美元/桶），近海项目约为 35-40 美元/桶，深水项目约为 40-45 美元/桶，美国页岩油约为 45 美元/桶，有些项目随着规模的扩大而降低。加拿大油砂生产的盈亏平衡

5、点为 55 美元/桶以上。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows Global oil demand growth outlook and forward oil price based on consensus数据来源：Company

6、data,Bloomberg,HTI estimates.Chart shows the global oil supply cost curve35455565758595105115-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%US$/bbly/y growthGlobal oil demand growthOil price(RHS)zWiXhZcZhUnPtOrPsRaQbP9PmOnNtRnQiNqQtMiNqQnR6MpOqQwMoPzQMYrQmM3美国石油和天然气供应强劲增长美国石油和天然气供应强劲增长For full disclosure of risks,valuat

7、ion methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 大多数石油市场专家认为，预测2025年美国液化天然气供应年增长率约为30万桶/日（2024年为30万桶/日），但设备限制和油价下跌可能会给这些预测带来一些风险。自 2017 年以来，美国液化天然气出口增长了近 7 倍，我们预测到 2030 年，液化天然气出口年均复合增长率将达到约 20。2000-2024 年，美国天然气需求年均增长约 2.7%（

8、主要用于工业/电力），而同期石油需求年均增长约 0.5%，我们预计本十年的增长率与此类似。数据来源：Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024,EIA,HTI Research.Chart shows US LNG exports over time数据来源：Energy Information Administration,HTI Estimates.Chart shows US,Russia and Saudi liquids supply outlook4全球石油服务周期的潜在平稳期全球石油服务周期的潜在平稳期在石油和

9、天然气价格上涨、资本支出增加的时期，我们预测 25 财年全球石油资本支出将同比下降 11%，26 财年基本持平。我们认为，随着各公司对支出采取更加谨慎的态度，全球石油服务周期可能会进入平稳期。重点关注防御性较强的公司，如 ADNOC Drilling（优于大市）。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bl

10、oomberg,HTI Estimates.Chart shows Global Oils upstream capex.“Global Oils”contains the 15 largest integrated international oil firms,China capex includes CNOOC,Sinopec and PetroChina数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows global oil service sector and COSL P/B over time and Brent 0.51.52.53.54.55.56

11、.51030507090110130150Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24P/BUS$/bblOil PriceChina Oilfield Services(RHS)Global Oilfield Services(RHS)5关注防御属性股票关注防御属性股票数字和人工智能（AI）业务的贡献增加，可能只能部分抵消美国业务的下降。预计2025财年，全球石油服务的共识平均净利润率和 EBITDA 利润率分别为 9%和

12、 18%，预计2026财年一些全球石油服务公司的利润率可能与此类似。我们建议精挑细选，重点关注 ADNOC Drilling 和 Chart Industries 等防御性公司。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows consensus

13、EV/EBITDA and net profit margin for 2025E.ADNOC guides net profit margin at 28-30%for FY25 not shown exactly on the chart for graphical purposes数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows dividend yield FY25 for selected Global oil service companies based on consensus62025/26 年全球液化天然气市场供应紧张年全球液化天然气市场供应紧

14、张我们继续认为，25/26 财年全球液化天然气供应缺口将不断扩大。我们对全球液化天然气供应/需求的分析表明，根据我们的一系列需求假设，结构性供应短缺将对 Chart Industries（优于大市）和 JGC、1963 JP（中性）等承包商构成利好。海通预测，25 财年液化天然气现货价格为 20 美元/百万英热单位，26 财年以上的长期价格为 25 美元/百万英热单位。随着 30 财年液化天然气供应量的逐步增加，我们预计液化天然气期价将大幅提高，这将对液化天然气运输商起到支持作用，如 ADNOC L&S（优于大市）和 JGC 1963 JP（中性）。For full disclosure of

15、 risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows selected global energy companies consensus EV/EBITDA 2025E and%of natural gas in the total oil/gas upstream production ba

16、sed on FY2024 data数据来源：HTI estimates.Chart show our forecast for global LNG supply/demand in MTPA 0100200300400500600700800MTPAGlobal LNG SupplyLowBaseHigh7液化天然气价格有波动的可能性液化天然气价格有波动的可能性通常情况下，大多数生产商可能会签订约 60-80%的长期（即约 10-20 年）和石油指数基础（即基于石油价格的公式，但滞后约 6-9 个月）液化天然气合同，并以短期方式出售剩余的液化天然气量。For full disclosure

17、 of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2025 年全球液化天然气可能出现紧张，亚洲液化天然气进口可能保持强劲（2024 年同比增长约 10%）。2025 年，中国的液化天然气进口量年增长率大于 30%，我们预测 2026 年的进口增长水平与此类似。数据来源：Bloomberg,JOGMEC,HTI Research.Chart shows spot L

18、NG prices and theoretical oil-indexed contract LNG with slopes between 10-15%数据来源：Cheniere,HTI Research.Chart shows Asia LNG exports0102030405060US$/MMBtuContract LNG Price(10-15%slope range)Spot LNG8欧洲天然气供应有限欧洲天然气供应有限For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on

19、 all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Cheniere,HTI Research.Chart shows European natural gas storage in bcm今年到目前为止，欧洲的液化天然气进口量高于历史平均水平，这主要是由于冬季天气比预期的要冷，而且需求旺盛。最近俄罗斯与乌克兰达成的天然气过境协议可能会导致欧洲天然气供应紧张，从而更加依赖液化天然气。欧洲天然气储存量远低于历史平均水平，我们预计今年夏天将增加补给量。数据来源：Cheniere,HT

20、I Research.Chart shows European LNG imports9购买偏向于液化天然气建造周期的液化天然气承包商购买偏向于液化天然气建造周期的液化天然气承包商十年中期液化天然气FID 的上升表明液化天然气承包商积压了大量工作。我们认为 25/26 财年的液化天然气 FID 可能达到 1 亿吨/年，而 24 财年仅为 1700 万吨/年。我们看好的与液化天然气主题相关的公司有 Chart Industries（优于大市）和 JGC（中性）、Cheniere Energy 和 Baker Hughes（HTI 未覆盖）。For full disclosure of risks

21、,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Estimates.Chart shows Global LNG FIDs each year and forecasts from FY25+数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Research.Chart shows consensus earnings y/y growth for FY

22、25 for selected Global natural gas biased companies(LHS)and absolute share price performance YTD(RHS).All data based on consensus-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Samsung HeavyGAIL IndiaMAHGLCOOECGuanghuiBakerHughesIGLKBRChiyodaKunlun EnergyChina Res.GasFluorConocoPhillipsChina GasBPEN

23、N EnergyExxonChevronPetronet LNGSantos LtdShellENN NGTOTALINPEXWoodsideHanwha OceanJGCCheniere EnergyYTD PerformanceFY24E y/y earnings changeFY24E y/y Earnings ChangeYTD Performance(RHS)10液化天然气工厂的可靠性仍存在风险液化天然气工厂的可靠性仍存在风险由于俄乌冲突仍在继续，俄罗斯天然气管道的中期进口量可能仍然较低。2024 年液化天然气工厂的可靠性与 2023 年大致相似，但仍存在现有工厂进行计划外维护的风险

24、。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Cheniere,HTI Research.Chart shows Russian natural gas pipeline imports to Europe since 2021数据来源：Cheniere,HTI Research.Chart shows Glo

25、bal LNG utilization11对炼油企业持谨慎态度；炼油利润面临下行风险对炼油企业持谨慎态度；炼油利润面临下行风险随着全球石油需求和新炼油能力的放缓增长，我们认为炼油利润的上升空间有限，因此将减少对炼油企业的投资。我们预测 2025 年炼油利润率为 5.5美元/桶（去年同期为 8 美元/桶，同比增长 12%）。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full re

26、port on our website at 数据来源：Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024,HTI Estimates数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI research.Chart shows an Asian theoretical gross refining margin based on a regional demand split and feedstock cost.We appreciate each refiner has a company specific margin12注重化学品原料成本

27、优势；尿素市场紧张注重化学品原料成本优势；尿素市场紧张我们预计，随着中国需求的复苏和欧洲等地高成本产能的合理化，石化行业的利润率将从 25 财年开始逐步恢复。石化行业周期的逐步复苏可能会对该行业的盈利能力和利润率前景起到支撑作用。我们看好 Borouge、SABIC 和卡塔尔工业集团（均为优于大市）。其他亚洲化工公司包括荣盛石化（优于大市）、马来西亚国家石油公司（Petronas Chemicals）和 SK Innovation（HTI均未覆盖）。我们对全球尿素供需前景的分析表明，本十年全球尿素工厂产能利用率将处于高位。氮基生产商包括卡塔尔工业公司和 Fertiglobe、中海石油化学、中国

28、心连心化肥（均为优于大市），沙特基础工业公司农业营养品部门、雅苒、CF 工业（HTI均未覆盖）。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：Bloomberg,HTI Estimates.Chart shows global polyethylene(PE)supply/demand outlook and u

29、tilization rate(RHS)数据来源：Bloomberg,Greenmarkets,HTI Estimates.Chart shows global urea supply/demand outlook and utilization rate(RHS)13尿素供应端风险尿素供应端风险我们认为，欧洲许多资产在成本方面仍缺乏竞争力，今年及以后还需进一步进行资产整合。中国尿素出口有限，这在 2025 财年及以后对供应构成下行风险，但对尿素价格前景有利。今年迄今尿素均价约为每吨 404 美元，而海通国际对 2025 财年的预测为每吨 350 美元。For full disclosure

30、of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 数据来源：International Fertilizer Association,Company data,Bloomberg,HTI Estimates数据来源：Bloomberg,China Customs,HTI Estimates.Chart shows urea exports from China an

31、d the red part for 2025E+shows our estimates14全球能源行业反馈全球能源行业反馈石油市场失衡；资本支出同比降幅扩大：石油市场失衡；资本支出同比降幅扩大：斯伦贝谢（Schlumberger）指出，新增石油供应（尤其是OPEC+宣布增产）以及关税对需求的冲击，可能导致石油供需失衡，进而压制油价，并使客户在短期内对支出持谨慎态度。该公司预计全球石油资本支出同比降幅将超过此前预期，不过中东和亚洲市场表现更具韧性。哈里伯顿（Halliburton）预计其国际收入同比持平至小幅下降，并表示“许多客户正在评估2025年的业务场景和计划。业务量减少可能导致已承诺机队

32、的闲置率高于正常水平，部分情况下机队可能退役或出口至国际市场.北美运营商倾向于逐步解决问题”。贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）预计“2025年全球上游支出将按高个位数百分比下降，其中国际市场降幅为中高个位数，北美市场降幅为低两位数”。海通已修正全球资本支出预测，预计2025财年和2026财年同比分别下降11%和5%。这可能对亚洲油服企业构成压力，包括中海油服、烟台杰瑞集团、中国石油工程（均被海通评级为优于大市）以及中石化油服、海洋石油工程（均未被海通覆盖）。OPEC+OPEC+供应增加：供应增加：在讨论哈萨克斯坦石油产量时，雪佛龙（Chevron，未被海通覆盖）表示，该国产量已超过OPEC

33、+配额，“事实上，我们在TCO（哈萨克斯坦）生产的原油对（哈萨克斯坦）政府具有高价值，对其财政平衡至关重要，且历史上这些产量未因OPEC+减产而削减”。海通对2025年布伦特原油价格的预测为70美元/桶，并认为除非有特定项目增长，否则全球能源股的盈利动能有限。沙特天然气优先战略：沙特天然气优先战略：斯伦贝谢强调，沙特的短期优先任务是稳定石油产量以响应OPEC+政策，同时扩大天然气生产。该公司认为沙特仍将陆上和非常规天然气作为重点，并预计这些领域的业务活动将增加。哈里伯顿表示，“沙特是巨大的市场，我们预计2025年在沙特的业务组合将实现增长”，无论是在非常规领域还是其他市场。此前我们已强调天然气

34、在沙特的重要性及其在发电中的应用，预计该领域在本十年将以中单位数增速增长。天然气天然气/液化天然气前景乐观：液化天然气前景乐观：贝克休斯（未被海通覆盖）重申对天然气的积极看法，并表示“强劲的天然气基本面持续利好液化天然气签约趋势”（2025年一季度长期液化天然气合同量为1550万吨/年，而2024财年为8100万吨/年）。该公司持续认为，到2030年需要8亿吨/年的液化能力，并重申此前指引2025至2026年间将有1亿吨/年的最终投资决策。这对Chart Industries（优于大市）和JGC（中性）有利，前者受益于美国天然气市场，后者在液化天然气领域有业务布局。For full discl

35、osure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 15全球能源行业反馈全球能源行业反馈全球能源行业并购可能增多：全球能源行业并购可能增多：埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil，未被海通覆盖）认为“当前是（埃克森美孚）股票的绝佳买入机会”，但重申仍将投资优势项目并维持强劲资产负债表。该公司还表示，“当进入低价环境时，部分公司可能缺乏与我们相同的基础、优势和抵御

36、周期低点的能力，这可能带来机会”。中国聚乙烯仍处贸易逆差：中国聚乙烯仍处贸易逆差：利安德巴塞尔（LyondellBasell，未被海通覆盖）称“中国需求依然疲软未看到（刺激政策）的直接影响”，并强调“2025年聚乙烯贸易逆差仍达30%-35%，2026年很可能延续这一趋势，即便中国新增产能投产”。该公司还指出，由于中国产能未完全一体化且依赖石脑油，难以满负荷运行，因此中国更应关注经济产能而非技术铭牌产能。此外，中国对新增许可证的需求大幅下降，这将影响未来几年的产能建设。陶氏（Dow US，未被海通覆盖）表示，“中国化工品内需并未显著支撑新增产能，至多温和增长。中国消费者需求未出现大幅上扬”，且

37、进口乙烷的中国化工裂解装置“正处于负现金流边际”。欧洲化工产能合理化：欧洲化工产能合理化：陶氏还认为至于乙烯产能削减，欧洲“已进入两位数降幅，可能最终将削减约20%的乙烯产能”。道达尔能源（TotalEnergies，未被海通覆盖）的下游业务集中于欧洲，预计2025年二季度炼油和化工利润率将持续疲软。埃克森美孚指出，化工品供应过剩将导致部分资产退出市场，并认为“极具挑战性的市场”将“持续较长时间”。化肥前景积极；中国尿素出口：化肥前景积极；中国尿素出口：CF Industries（未被海通覆盖）认为，由于库存低位和需求高企，预计2025年下半年全球氮肥行业环境将维持向好，需求强劲且供应紧张。该

38、公司已为其蓝氨项目签订承购协议，并预计中国今年尿素出口量为120万-300万吨。我们认为，由于中国政府优先保障国内发电用天然气或煤炭供应，今年尿素出口可能有限（参见图1和图2）。今年以来尿素均价接近400美元/吨，同比上涨约20%，远高于我们对2025财年350美元/吨的预测。这对沙特基础工业公司（SABIC）、卡塔尔工业公司（优于大市）、Fertiglobe、Yara、CF Industries（未被海通覆盖）有利。For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HT

39、I rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at APPENDIX重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT

40、DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities C

41、ompany Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，Scott Darling，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人

42、观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,ScottDarling,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issue

43、rs referredto in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the sub

44、ject companies discussed.I and myhousehold,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the researchreport is published.16APPENDIX我，Catherine Li，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（

45、ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,Catherine Li,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers ref

46、erred to in thisresearch and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this researchreport;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject c

47、ompanies discussed.I and myhousehold,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the researchreport is published.利益利益冲突披露冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市

48、或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks orcompanies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,t

49、he following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the followingdisclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).1866.HK目前或过去12个月内是国泰海通的客户。国泰海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。1866.HK is/was a client of

50、Guotai Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-relatedservices.17APPENDIX评级定义评级定义（从从2020年年7月月1日开始执行日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都

51、不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美国美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念

52、股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Resear

53、ch.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more completeinformation concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the ratingalone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or rel

54、ied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of

55、its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls int

56、o a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;f

57、or all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.18APPENDIX截至截至2025年年3月月31日日截至截至2024年年12月月31日日海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市(持有)(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率92.2%7.5%0.3%91.9%7.6%0.4%投资银行客户*3.3%3.5%0.0%2.1%2.2%0.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大

58、市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义（直至直至2020年年9月月30日日）：买入买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 T

59、AIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.19APPENDIXHaitongInternational Equity Research Ratings Distribution,HaitongInternational Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of March 31,2025as of December 31,2024OutperformNeutralUnderperformOutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)(hold)HTI Equity Res

60、earch Coverage92.2%7.5%0.3%91.9%7.6%0.4%IB clients*3.3%3.5%0.0%2.1%2.2%0.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings

61、 distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of

62、its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls in

63、to a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other Chi

64、na-concept stocks MSCIChina.20APPENDIX海通国际非评级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks accordi

65、ng to valuation andother metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母

66、公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与国泰海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES(601211 CH),the ultimate paren

67、t company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research onthese same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by GTHS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be adifference in the HTI and GTHS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通

68、国际优质优质100 A股股（Q100）指数指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对国泰海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage atGTHS in Shanghai.T

69、hese stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the GTHS A-share teams bottom-upresearch.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.21APPENDIX盟浪义利盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：第一条 义利（FIN-

70、ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考，并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。第二条 盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户，收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断，盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据

71、。除非另行说明，本数据（如财务业绩数据等）仅代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数据进行修改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。第四条 如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如盟浪网站用户注册协议盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议盟浪网隐私政策等）有约定

72、的，则按其他协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer:Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these termsbefore using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1.FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital T

73、echnology Co.,Ltd.(In short,SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information.SusallWaveshall not be responsible for any accuracy and completeness of the information.The assessment result is for reference only.It is not for any investment advice for anyindividual or institution

74、and not for basis of purchasing,selling or holding any relative financial products.We will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss of anyindividual or institution as a result of using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data.2.SusallWave do not consider recipients as customers for receiving these data.When usi

75、ng the data,recipients shall make your own independent judgment accordingto your practical individual status.The contents of the data reflect the judgment of us only on the release day.We have right to update and amend the data andrelease other data that contains inconsistent contents or different c

76、onclusions without notification.Unless expressly stated,the data(e.g.,financial performance data)represents past performance only and the past performance cannot be viewed as the prediction of future return.3.The copyright of this data belongs to SusallWave,and we reserve all rights in accordance wi

77、th the law.Without the prior written permission of our company,noneof individual or institution can use these data for any profitable purpose.Besides,none of individual or institution can take actions such as amendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,exc

78、erpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,information networktransmission,shooting,adding icons and instructions.If any loss of SusallWave or any third-party is caused by those actions,users shall bear the correspondingcompensation liability.SusallWave shall not be responsible

79、for any loss.4.If any term is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website(e.g.User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website,User Service(including authentication)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed accordi

80、ng to other agreements.If there isany difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.22APPENDIX重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong

81、International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为印度交易所）的研

82、究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示

83、或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对

84、此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明

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