2020-2023年财政政策对经合组织国家通胀的影响.pdf

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1、Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries,2020-2023Robert BarroHarvard UniversityNBERFrancesco BianchiJohns Hopkins UniversityNBER&CEPRSummaryCOVID Inflation and Fiscal DominanceCOVID crisis 2020-2023:surge of inflation along with surge in fiscal deficits in manycountries made economists rece

2、ptive to idea that fiscal factors key to recent inflation.By inflating away real value of debt,inflationunanticipated as of 2019is asubstantial source of effective real government revenue:akin to partial debt default.Analyze conceptually in context of government intertemporal budget constraint.Focus

3、 on frictionless version of model,no nominal rigidities.Apply empirically to 37 OECD countries,2020-23.Barro and BianchiFiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries1/29Inflation and composite spendingBudget EquationMarket value of govt debt as present discounted value of future primary surpluses

4、BtPt=i=1(Tt+iGt+i)(1+r)iBt:Nominal market value of short-and long-term public debt at the start of period t.Pt:Price level at the start of period t.Tt,Gt:Real taxes and real primary spending in period t.r:Constant real interest rate.Assumes no-Ponzi condition for long-term financing.Stock of real go

5、vernment bonds equals the present value of real primary surpluses.Barro and BianchiFiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries2/29Inflation and composite spendingSpending SurgeA crisis(pandemic or war),leads to unexpected surge in Gt+i,i=0,.,M.Temporary surge:spending returns to pre-crisis leve

6、ls after M periodsAssume growth and real interest rates approximately equal and stable:Yt?GtYt?+?Gt+1Yt+1?+?Gt+MYt+M?(1)Barro and BianchiFiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries3/29Inflation and composite spendingGovernment BondsAssume total of coupon and principal payments rise over time wi