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1、TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 Tech Market Scenarios in the Face of a Renewed Trade War2TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WARTELCO CORE.35G,6G&OPEN RAN.45G,6G&OPEN RAN.5AI&MACHINE LEARNING.6CITIZEN DIGITAL IDENTITY.7DIGITAL PAYMENT TECHNOLOGIES.8EXTENDED R

2、EALITY(XR)MARKETS.9EXTENDED REALITY(XR)TECHNOLOGIES.10ENTERPRISE CONNECTIVITY.11INDUSTRIAL,COLLABORATIVE&COMMERCIAL ROBOTICS.12INDUSTRIAL&MANUFACTURING MARKETS.14INDUSTRIAL&MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES.15IoT MARKETS.16IoT NETWORKS&PLATFORMS.17CLOUD.18QUANTUM-SAFE TECHNOLOGIES.19RFID.20SMART BUILDINGS.

3、21SMART ENERGY.22SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE.23FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION.24WAREHOUSING&FULFILLMENT.25AUTOMOTIVE.26SOUTHEAST ASIA DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION.27SPACE TECHNOLOGIES&INNOVATION.28TELCO CYBERSECURITY.29TRUSTED DEVICE SOLUTIONS.30WI-FI&WLAN TECHNOLOGIES&MARKETS.31WI-FI,BLUETOOTH&WIRELESS CONN

4、ECTIVITY.32ContentsNearly two months after“Liberation Day,”markets and organizations around the world continue to grapple with the fallout of a rapidly shifting trade landscapeone now marked by escalating tariff measures and renewed global tensions.With new policy announcements emerging almost weekl

5、y,maintaining a clear strategic direction is increasingly difficult amid the uncertainty.In this whitepaper,ABI Researchs global team of analysts aims to bring clarity to the chaos.We present 30 market forecastseach showing how tariffs are reshaping expectations across key technology sectors.For eac

6、h,we compare our original projections with updated mid-and worst-case scenarios to reflect the current trajectory of trade policy.While tariffs may unlock growth opportunities in some areas,they will force recalibration in others.Either way,informed planning starts with understanding the full pictur

7、e.BRINGING CLARITY TO THE CHAOS3TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR1TELCO CORERising infrastructure costs from the tariffs will lead to a minor but noticeable slowdown of Cloud-native Network Function(CNF)revenue.1.Telco Core Global Cloud-Native Netwo

8、rk Function Revenue,World Markets(US$Millions)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)1,852 2,139 2,542 2,893 3,277 3,611 3,982 Series 2 1,778 2,054 2,440 2,777 3,146 3,466 3,823 (Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 1815 2096 2491 2835 3211 3539 3902(Mid-Case Forecast)Prediction Risin

9、g infrastructure costs from the tariffs will lead to a minor but noticeable slowdown of Cloud-native Network Function(CNF)revenue.(One Sentence):Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Despite being software-based,core network sales are not outside the scope of tariff impact and will still be indirectl

10、y affected by rising infrastructure costs.While cloud-native platform providers,including U.S.-based companies like Red Hat and Wind River,may not raise prices of their platforms due to tariffs,the cost of ownership for these platforms will scale with the costs of underlying hardware infrastructure.

11、Such additional expense for the cloud-native stack will slow adoption of cloud-native network functions in a minor but noticeable way.We anticipate a global 4%reduction in the worst-case scenario and a 2%reduction in the mid-case scenario.The primary regions impacted will be Europe and Latin America

12、.By contrast,Asia-Pacific will see minimal impact:the region already has a diverse market of non-U.S.cloud-native vendors and China,the main target of tariff impact,has already widely adopted CNF with domestic platform vendors.23420252026202720282029US$BillionsGLOBAL CLOUD-NATIVE NETWORK FUNCTION RE

13、VENUESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)Despite being software-based,core network sales are not outside the scope of tariff impact and will still be indirectly affected by rising infrastructure costs.While cloud-native platform providers,including U.S

14、.-based companies like Red Hat and Wind River,may not raise prices of their platforms due to tariffs,the cost of ownership for these platforms will scale with the costs of underlying hardware infrastructure.Such additional expense for the cloud-native stack will slow adoption of cloud-native network

15、 functions in a minor but noticeable way.We anticipate a global 4%reduction in the worst-case scenario and a 2%reduction in the mid-case scenario.The primary regions impacted will be Europe and Latin America.By contrast,Asia-Pacific will see minimal impact:the region already has a diverse market of

16、non-U.S.cloud-native vendors and China,the main target of tariff impact,has already widely adopted CNF with domestic platform vendors.4TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR5G,6G&OPEN RANPassive antenna revenue is expected to slow,both as a result of inc

17、reased tariffs on Chinese antenna components and as operators have reduced budgets to invest in non-essential infrastructure rollouts.The tariffs have led to a 20%minimum increase on many passive antenna components,as many of these items originate from the Asia-Pacific region in countries such as Vi

18、etnam,Japan,and China.This price increase will particularly affect antenna business in North America,which counts for about 12.5%of the total passive antenna market.Smaller suppliers,which often have limited cash flow and depend on just-in-time production,will find it difficult to handle these risin

19、g costs.As a result,they may miss out on important contracts.While larger vendors such as Nokia and Ericsson might have the money to adapt to changes and,hence,be more resilient in the market,they will still need to increase their prices.This hike could lead to a decrease in demand from operators th

20、at are already dealing with tight budgets from increased inflation over the last few years.Consequently,slower network expansions and decreased investment in infrastructure in North America may slow overall revenue growth in the 2 3,5003,6003,7003,80020252026202720282029US$GLOBAL PASSIVE ANTENNA REV

21、ENUE Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)5TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR5G,6G&OPEN RAN5G Radio Access Network(RAN)revenue in North America is expected to slow due to changes in manufacturing locatio

22、ns and sourcing strategies.Various components of the RAN,whether they be for the macro baseband or the radios,are expected to see increases between 10%and 30%,and continued uncertainty regarding the longevity of the heightened tariffs(particularly on China where many key components are sourced)mean

23、that the U.S.market is expected to experience a slowdown in announcements of major 5G RAN upgrades.This may include lower-scale refreshes of cell sites for the latest generation solutions,or even the shift toward Open RAN-compliant hardware as operators will likely take a conservative approach.Furth

24、ermore,as key infrastructure vendors move their manufacturing to the United States,and even Mexico and Canada,the price of their RAN solutions is expected to increase,which will end up reducing the purchasing power that U.S.operators have and further precipitating the slowdown in major contract wins

25、.3 3.5G,6G&Open RAN 5G RAN Revenue,North America(US$Millions)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)12.70 16.19 16.17 15.18 10.49 7.73 5.63 Series 2 (Worst-Case Forecast)12.70 14.11 14.54 13.69 9.90 7.30 5.32 Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)12.70 14.80 15.01 14.17 10.22 7.54 5.49

26、Prediction (One Sentence):5G Radio Access Network(RAN)revenue in North America is expected to slow due to changes in manufacturing locations and sourcing strategies.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Various components of the RAN,whether they be for the macro baseband or the radios,are expected to

27、 see increases between 10%and 30%,and continued uncertainty regarding the longevity of the heightened tariffs(particularly on China where many key components are sourced)mean that the U.S.market is expected to experience a slowdown in announcements of major 5G RAN upgrades.This may include lower-sca

28、le refreshes of cell sites for the latest generation solutions,or even the shift toward Open RAN-compliant hardware as operators will likely take a conservative approach.Furthermore,as key infrastructure vendors move their manufacturing to the United States,and even Mexico and Canada,the price of th

29、eir RAN solutions is expected to increase,which will end up reducing the purchasing power that U.S.operators have and further precipitating the slowdown in major contract wins.5811141720252026202720282029US$Millions NORTH AMERICAN 5G RAN REVENUE 5811141720252026202720282029US$Millions NORTH AMERICAN

30、 5G RAN REVENUESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)6TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WARAI&MACHINE LEARNINGChinese Artificial Intelligence(AI)software and service revenue may benefit from tariff impositio

31、n,as rising infrastructure costs force stakeholders to make supplier decisions.AI software and service regional power dynamics may go through long-term structural changes as a result of tariffs.Although certain exemptions exist,tariffs will put upward pressure on AI infrastructure costs,especially h

32、itting the cloud and data center providers.Assuming they do not eat the entire cost,this increased Capital Expenditure(CAPEX)bill will be passed onto U.S.-based Independent Software Vendors(ISVs).The result of this will be rising enterprise AI software and service costs.China will be the main benefa

33、ctor of enterprises looking to reduce software Operational Expenditure(OPEX)this will definitely be supported by other supply side trends,e.g.,the emergence of competitive Chinese AI open-source models and accelerators.AI SOFTWARE REVENUE,UNITED STATES&CHINA(US$MILLIONS)4Region20252026202720282029Se

34、ries 1(Original Forecast)United States103,429112,161121,880133,131151,208China25,42243,21064,76493,075113,755Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)United States92,28598,194102,379111,363124,696China36,56657,17784,264114,843140,267Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)United States94,026102,430111,407121,804138,596Chin

35、a34,82552,94175,236104,403126,3677TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WARCITIZEN DIGITAL IDENTITYAlthough tariffs will not directly affect the mobile Drivers License(mDL)market,with them being classed as a service,mass adoption will be harmed by the econo

36、mic uncertainty in the U.S.market.Mass adoption of mDLs will be indirectly harmed by the tariffs,driven by localized economic uncertainty,making it more difficult for technology innovators and implementers to plan in the long term.ABI Research forecasts that these effects will become prevalent in tw

37、o different ways.In a mid-case scenario,the tariffs will slow down mDL development,with reduced technological investment from dedicated vendors like Thales and IDEMIA,and third-party wallet vendors like Apple,Google,and Samsung shifting focus,reducing emphasis on wallet expansion,and instead concent

38、rating efforts on retaining their respective primary market presence in payments.In the worst-case scenario,an economic downturn will impact the consumer market.Reduction in consumer spending and,thus,handset churn may result in lower mDL adoption,or at the very least slow down mDL churn.55.Citizen

39、Digital Identity mDL Total Installed Base,United States(Millions)2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)21.73 30.74 48.92 77.67 116.25 143.98 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)13.04 18.44 29.35 46.60 69.75 86.39 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)19.36 27.66 44.03 69.91 104.63 129.59 Prediction

40、 (One Sentence):Although tariffs will not directly affect the mobile Drivers License(mDL)market,with them being classed as a service,mass adoption will be harmed by the economic uncertainty in the U.S.market.Supporting Information (One Paragraph)Mass adoption of mDLs will be indirectly harmed by the

41、 tariffs,driven by localized economic uncertainty,making it more difficult for technology innovators and implementers to plan in the long term.ABI Research forecasts that these effects will become prevalent in two different ways.In a mid-case scenario,the tariffs will slow down mDL development,with

42、reduced technological investment from dedicated vendors like Thales and IDEMIA,and third-party wallet vendors like Apple,Google,and Samsung shifting focus,reducing emphasis on wallet expansion,and instead concentrating efforts on retaining their respective primary market presence in payments.In the

43、worst-case scenario,an economic downturn will impact the consumer market.Reduction in consumer spending and,thus,handset churn may result in lower mDL adoption,or at the very least slow down mDL churn.02040608010012014020252026202720282029MillionsU.S.mDL TOTAL INSTALLED BASESeries 1(Original Forecas

44、t)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)8TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR6DIGITAL PAYMENT TECHNOLOGIESA two-fold tariff threat looms for the U.S.payment card market,linked to decreasing consumer confidence and spending,alongside

45、increasing payment card unit costs.Over the past 5 years,“turbulent”is probably the most appropriate word to describe the payment card market,impacted by COVID-19,the chipset shortage,and overstocking.With the new dynamic of tariffs looming,questions remain around the potential impacts and what this

46、 will mean for those active in the payment card manufacturing and personalization ecosystem.It remains to be seen whether tariffs will directly impact the issuance of payment cards as it relates to component and consumables pricing,but indirect tariff impacts will likely reverberate across the payme

47、nt card issuance market.With consumer products increasing in price across the mid-case forecast,consumer confidence and,thus,spending will likely decrease and,as a direct result,demand for credit cards could slow.The credit card market is tied closely to consumer confidence and should a downturn or

48、even recession come into force,an inevitable reduction in credit card issuance should be expected.On top of this is the potential tariff impact,increasing the cost of payment card components and consumables.Banks and financial institutions may look toward spreading increased payment card costs over

49、a longer period of time,thus increasing card expirations from 4 to 5 years for credit and debit,respectively,toward 6 and 7 years.This would be considered a worst-case scenario,although one that will not likely be felt until the back end of 2025/in 2026,once existing non-tariffed card stock and cons

50、umables have been depleted.6.Digital Payment Technologies Payment Card Shipments,United States(Millions)2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)653.7 656.0 657.6 660.5 663.4 662.5 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)602.4 612.1 636.0 627.5 633.2 632.1 Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)662.9 631.

51、5 640.3 647.8 653.8 653 Prediction (One Sentence):A two-fold tariff threat looms for the U.S.payment card market,linked to decreasing consumer confidence and spending,alongside increasing payment card unit costs.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Over the past 5 years,“turbulent”is probably the mo

52、st appropriate word to describe the payment card market,impacted by COVID-19,the chipset shortage,and overstocking.With the new dynamic of tariffs looming,questions remain around the potential impacts and what this will mean for those active in the payment card manufacturing and personalization ecos

53、ystem.It remains to be seen whether tariffs will directly impact the issuance of payment cards as it relates to component and consumables pricing,but indirect tariff impacts will likely reverberate across the payment card issuance market.With consumer products increasing in price across the mid-case

54、 forecast,consumer confidence and,thus,spending will likely decrease and,as a direct result,demand for credit cards could slow.The credit card market is tied closely to consumer confidence and should a downturn or even recession come into force,an inevitable reduction in credit card issuance should

55、be expected.On top of this is the potential tariff impact,increasing the cost of payment card components and consumables.Banks and financial institutions may look toward spreading increased payment card costs over a longer period of time,thus increasing card expirations from 4 to 5 years for credit

56、and debit,respectively,toward 6 and 7 years.This would be considered a worst-case scenario,although one that will not likely be felt until the back end of 2025/in 2026,once existing non-tariffed card stock and consumables have been depleted.56058060062064066068020252026202720282029MillionsU.S.PAYMEN

57、T CARD SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)6.Digital Payment Technologies Payment Card Shipments,United States(Millions)2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)653.7 656.0 657.6 660.5 663.4 662.5 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)6

58、02.4 612.1 636.0 627.5 633.2 632.1 Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)662.9 631.5 640.3 647.8 653.8 653 Prediction (One Sentence):A two-fold tariff threat looms for the U.S.payment card market,linked to decreasing consumer confidence and spending,alongside increasing payment card unit costs.Supporting Info

59、rmation(One Paragraph)Over the past 5 years,“turbulent”is probably the most appropriate word to describe the payment card market,impacted by COVID-19,the chipset shortage,and overstocking.With the new dynamic of tariffs looming,questions remain around the potential impacts and what this will mean fo

60、r those active in the payment card manufacturing and personalization ecosystem.It remains to be seen whether tariffs will directly impact the issuance of payment cards as it relates to component and consumables pricing,but indirect tariff impacts will likely reverberate across the payment card issua

61、nce market.With consumer products increasing in price across the mid-case forecast,consumer confidence and,thus,spending will likely decrease and,as a direct result,demand for credit cards could slow.The credit card market is tied closely to consumer confidence and should a downturn or even recessio

62、n come into force,an inevitable reduction in credit card issuance should be expected.On top of this is the potential tariff impact,increasing the cost of payment card components and consumables.Banks and financial institutions may look toward spreading increased payment card costs over a longer peri

63、od of time,thus increasing card expirations from 4 to 5 years for credit and debit,respectively,toward 6 and 7 years.This would be considered a worst-case scenario,although one that will not likely be felt until the back end of 2025/in 2026,once existing non-tariffed card stock and consumables have

64、been depleted.56058060062064066068020252026202720282029MillionsU.S.PAYMENT CARD SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)9TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR7EXTENDED REALITY(XR)MARKETSTariffs and gl

65、obal economic hesitation will have a significant impact on the Extended Reality(XR)software market,with enterprise customers pausing investment and consumer customers limiting spending on non-essential technology.XR solutions are at an interesting crossroads,with the value of the technology understo

66、od and proven,but scaling adoption on the horizon.That horizon is now hazy thanks to economic uncertainty and fluctuating global tariffs,so many companies that were planning to invest in XR may pause that investment.In the consumer space,momentum has been building around novel XR devices and form fa

67、ctors,especially no-display smart glasses focused on Artificial Intelligence(AI)applications.Both the companies making these devices and the potential customer base for those devices,will be more hesitant to invest in a mostly novel technology/experience.Even if tariffs settle to a predictable level

68、,the damage has still been done to roadmaps,supply chains,and relationships,which will take time to rebuild.At the same time,the value of XR for enterprises may actually increase in uncertain times as a workforce enabler and efficiency improver,so there is some countering positive momentum for XR in

69、 that area.7.Extended Reality(XR)Markets Total XR Software&Service Revenue(US$Millions)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)13,444 19,069 26,750 38,058 54,538 77,281 108,643 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)13,444 8,581 10,700 17,126 29,996 46,369 70,618 Series 3(Mid-Case Foreca

70、st)13,444 12,395 16,050 24,737 38,176 60,279 92,347 Prediction (One Sentence):Tariffs and global economic hesitation will have a significant impact on the Extended Reality(XR)software market,with enterprise customers pausing investment and consumer customers limiting spending on non-essential techno

71、logy.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)XR solutions are at an interesting crossroads,with the value of the technology understood and proven,but scaling adoption on the horizon.That horizon is now hazy thanks to economic uncertainty and fluctuating global tariffs,so many companies that were planni

72、ng to invest in XR may pause that investment.In the consumer space,momentum has been building around novel XR devices and form factors,especially no-display smart glasses focused on Artificial Intelligence(AI)applications.Both the companies making these devices and the potential customer base for th

73、ose devices,will be more hesitant to invest in a mostly novel technology/experience.Even if tariffs settle to a predictable level,the damage has still been done to roadmaps,supply chains,and relationships,which will take time to rebuild.At the same time,the value of XR for enterprises may actually i

74、ncrease in uncertain times as a workforce enabler and efficiency improver,so there is some countering positive momentum for XR in that area.015304560759020252026202720282029US$MillionsTOTAL XR SOFTWARE&SERVICE REVENUESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast

75、)10TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR8EXTENDED REALITY(XR)TECHNOLOGIESExtended Reality(XR)hardware is heavily impacted by tariffs,with required global supply chains in high-impact regions,high technology complexity,and already high device costs for b

76、oth producers and customers.XR devices,including both Virtual Reality(VR)headsets and Augmented Reality(AR)smart glasses,are highly susceptible to global economic trends and tariffs.Components are globally sourced,with China and Taiwan significant contributors across component types.Manufacturing is

77、 also spread globally,both at the individual component level and complete device Original Equipment Manufacturer(OEM)level,making country-by-country tariff adjustments impactful at every stage.Given XRs relative nascence compared to more established technologies like smartphones,as well as the share

78、d ecosystem and manufacturing of some components(including chipsets,sensors,and displays),there is a chance that horizontally active vendors spin down XR investment and/or production in favor of these other areas,which is compounded by a possible broad slowdown of technology spending overall.Positiv

79、e trends remain with XR being a differentiator for operators and a key partner of AIto maintain AI momentum and grow vision-based platforms,XR can be an option separate from established segments.8.Extended Reality(XR)Technologies Total XR Hardware Shipments(Actual)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

80、Series 1(Original Forecast)11,546,289 16,786,715 24,317,091 35,767,818 49,187,624 65,485,034 81,663,556 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)11,546,289 6,714,686 7,295,127 12,518,736 19,675,050 29,468,265 44,914,956 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)11,546,289 10,911,365 14,590,255 23,249,082 34,431,337 51,078,327

81、 69,414,023 Prediction (One Sentence):Extended Reality(XR)hardware is heavily impacted by tariffs,with required global supply chains in high-impact regions,high technology complexity,and already high device costs for both producers and customers.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)XR devices,includ

82、ing both Virtual Reality(VR)headsets and Augmented Reality(AR)smart glasses,are highly susceptible to global economic trends and tariffs.Components are globally sourced,with China and Taiwan significant contributors across component types.Manufacturing is also spread globally,both at the individual

83、component level and complete device Original Equipment Manufacturer(OEM)level,making country-by-country tariff adjustments impactful at every stage.Given XRs relative nascence compared to more established technologies like smartphones,as well as the shared ecosystem and manufacturing of some compone

84、nts(including chipsets,sensors,and displays),there is a chance that horizontally active vendors spin down XR investment and/or production in favor of these other areas,which is compounded by a possible broad slowdown of technology spending overall.Positive trends remain with XR being a differentiato

85、r for operators and a key partner of AIto maintain AI momentum and grow vision-based platforms,XR can be an option separate from established segments.020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,00020252026202720282029TOTAL XR HARDWARE SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Fore

86、cast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)8.Extended Reality(XR)Technologies Total XR Hardware Shipments(Actual)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)11,546,289 16,786,715 24,317,091 35,767,818 49,187,624 65,485,034 81,663,556 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)11,546,289 6,714,686 7,295,12

87、7 12,518,736 19,675,050 29,468,265 44,914,956 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)11,546,289 10,911,365 14,590,255 23,249,082 34,431,337 51,078,327 69,414,023 Prediction (One Sentence):Extended Reality(XR)hardware is heavily impacted by tariffs,with required global supply chains in high-impact regions,high t

88、echnology complexity,and already high device costs for both producers and customers.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)XR devices,including both Virtual Reality(VR)headsets and Augmented Reality(AR)smart glasses,are highly susceptible to global economic trends and tariffs.Components are globally s

89、ourced,with China and Taiwan significant contributors across component types.Manufacturing is also spread globally,both at the individual component level and complete device Original Equipment Manufacturer(OEM)level,making country-by-country tariff adjustments impactful at every stage.Given XRs rela

90、tive nascence compared to more established technologies like smartphones,as well as the shared ecosystem and manufacturing of some components(including chipsets,sensors,and displays),there is a chance that horizontally active vendors spin down XR investment and/or production in favor of these other

91、areas,which is compounded by a possible broad slowdown of technology spending overall.Positive trends remain with XR being a differentiator for operators and a key partner of AIto maintain AI momentum and grow vision-based platforms,XR can be an option separate from established segments.020,000,0004

92、0,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,00020252026202720282029TOTAL XR HARDWARE SHIPMENTS11TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR9ENTERPRISE CONNECTIVITYTariff exemptions may inflate prices,but direct tariffs threaten global adoption and could hit North Am

93、erican firms especially hard.If tariff exemptions on electronics and raw materials remain in place,the impact on private cellular adoption may be minimal.The market will take a hit regardless,as the indirect effects of tariffs on other verticals emerge,increasing inflationary pressures and reducing

94、enterprise spending on innovation and connectivity improvements,as they look to maintain,rather than deploy.This effect will manifest globally,although the United States will take a bigger hit than more mature regions,such as developed Asia-Pacific,as its ecosystem remains relatively insular.Convers

95、ely,if tariffs are directly imposed on private cellular components,supply chain issues will not only affect the profitability and spending habits of customers,but also the viability of deployments on the supply side.As raw materials and hardware stocks deplete over the next year,revenue will likely

96、dip in North America,which largely relies on Chinese manufacturers,and new contracts will fail to be secured as implementation prices skyrocket,making the connectivity option less viable and attractive.PRIVATE CELLULAR REVENUE(US$BILLIONS)Region20252026202720282029Series 1(Original Forecast)North Am

97、erica1.822.593.785.628.41Rest of the World10.5414.0820.2329.3742.89Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)North America0.871.251.732.433.47Rest of the World7.9110.7114.5920.4128.93Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)North America1.482.193.114.486.48Rest of the World8.7812.1116.8424.0134.6712TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:3

98、0 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR10INDUSTRIAL,COLLABORATIVE&COMMERCIAL ROBOTICSUncertainty will damage both the near-and long-term growth of the industrial robotics market as adopters scrutinize the viability of supply chains and grow skeptical of market stability.As the wor

99、lds largest consumer market,indecision in the United States concerning the future of the consumer goods market will have a ripple effect felt around the world.Uncertainty will lead manufacturers in the United States to pause,or abandon,plans for manufacturing plant growth as tariff threats create co

100、st uncertainty.Manufactures in China and the peripheral nations will reduce production as their primary export market threatens to slash order demand.A manufacturing renaissance in the United States must not be completely ruled out.Feasibly,the administration could devise a stimulus package for resh

101、oring manufacturing and incentivize manufacturers(via tax relief,deregulation,and removing tariffs on the import of robotics and other critical equipment)in a manner that eclipses the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and CHIPS Act targets of the previous administration.However,reshoring would be hampered

102、 by a national skills shortage,high wages,and the cost of hardware(consider that Chinese manufacturers are increasingly turning to cheap,homegrown industrial robot vendors).These factors will prevent the United States from conducting competitive manufacturing.0100200300400500600700202520262027202820

103、29000sGLOBAL INDUSTRIAL ROBOT SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)13TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR11INDUSTRIAL,COLLABORATIVE&COMMERCIAL ROBOTICSCollaborative Robot(cobot)shipments will suff

104、er as decision makers and venture capital turn away from innovation in search of safer bets.Cobots are a proxy for robotics innovation and flexible,intuitive automation.Currently,the cobot market is small due to the complexity of deploying and supporting Artificial Intelligence(AI)-augmented robots.

105、Regulatory shifts,notably new requirements that are to be brought in with the 2027 update to the International Organization for Standardization(ISO)10218 standard,will dampen the near-term growth potential of the form factor.As with all physical AI,the value proposition of collaborative robots has n

106、ot yet been sufficiently demonstrated to decision makers and many companies only survive due to investor backing.Feasibly,under the stress of economic uncertainty,manufacturers may wish to remain with the tried and tested automation of classic industrial robots or abandon the ambition of automation

107、altogether.Cobot deployments within the United States could be halved.Alternatively,U.S.-based cobot vendors,such as Standard Bots,Cobot,and Rethink Robotics,could enjoy mass adoption as the U.S.markets seek to accelerate automation with domestic robots.After an initial lull,the market may recover a

108、nd see growth beyond previous forecasts as U.S.-made cobots enjoy uptake within verticals that include healthcare,logistics,agriculture,and retail,alongside manufacturing.0102030405020252026202720282029000sU.S.COLLABORATIVE ROBOT SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Serie

109、s 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)14TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR12INDUSTRIAL&MANUFACTURING MARKETSQuality Management System(QMS)software adoption by manufacturers will slow somewhat;however,the value of the software to reduce scrap rates for what are now

110、more expensive in-puts will stop significant reductions in deployments.Increased costs of manufacturing through increasing input expenses due to tariffs will narrow manufacturers profit margins,reducing the overall investment in Industry 4.0 solutions,including QMS software.However,QMS software is u

111、nlikely to be hit too hard by this reduction in spending,as the solution remains a top adoption priority by many manufacturers,highlighted in ABI Researchs Industrial and Manufacturing Survey 2H 2024/1Q 2025:State of Play for Digital Transformation,which ranked the software as the number one investm

112、ent overall to improve quality levels by manufacturers,with 53%of respondents ranking it in the top 5.Reducing scrap rates from production processes is,in many ways,even more critical than it was prior to the tariffs,as components and raw material costs are now higher,leading to larger losses from s

113、crap.Overall,QMS software retains its strong value proposition,and will only see a small drop in investment due to weaker demand from a more conservative spending climate,primarily among U.S.manufacturers,until uncertainty around tariff policies reduces.12.Industrial&Manufacturing Markets QMS Softwa

114、re Revenue for Discrete Manufacturing,World Markets(US$000s)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)2,695,355 2,826,105 3,316,723 3,818,601 4,247,245 4,665,435 4,964,572 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)2,695,355 2,718,784 3,083,519 3,580,451 3,982,363 4,374,472 4,654,953 Series 3(

115、Mid-Case Forecast)2,695,355 2,790,331 3,247,220 3,738,581 4,158,243 4,567,670 4,860,538 Prediction (One Sentence):Quality Management System(QMS)software adoption by manufacturers will slow somewhat;however,the value of the software to reduce scrap rates for what are now more expensive inputs will st

116、op significant reductions in deployments.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Increased costs of manufacturing through increasing input expenses due to tariffs will narrow manufacturers profit margins,reducing the overall investment in Industry 4.0 solutions,including QMS software.However,QMS softwa

117、re is unlikely to be hit too hard by this reduction in spending,as the solution remains a top adoption priority by many manufacturers,highlighted in ABI Researchs Industrial and Manufacturing Survey 2H 2024/1Q 2025:State of Play for Digital Transformation,which ranked the software as the number one

118、investment overall to improve quality levels by manufacturers,with 53%of respondents ranking it in the top 5.Reducing scrap rates from production processes is,in many ways,even more critical than it was prior to the tariffs,as components and raw material costs are now higher,leading to larger losses

119、 from scrap.Overall,QMS software retains its strong value proposition,and will only see a small drop in investment due to weaker demand from a more conservative spending climate,primarily among U.S.manufacturers,until uncertainty around tariff policies reduces.2.02.53.03.54.04.55.0202520262027202820

120、29US$BillionsGLOBAL QMS SOFTWARE REVENUE FOR DISCRETE MANUFACTURINGSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)12.Industrial&Manufacturing Markets QMS Software Revenue for Discrete Manufacturing,World Markets(US$000s)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1

121、(Original Forecast)2,695,355 2,826,105 3,316,723 3,818,601 4,247,245 4,665,435 4,964,572 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)2,695,355 2,718,784 3,083,519 3,580,451 3,982,363 4,374,472 4,654,953 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)2,695,355 2,790,331 3,247,220 3,738,581 4,158,243 4,567,670 4,860,538 Prediction (One

122、 Sentence):Quality Management System(QMS)software adoption by manufacturers will slow somewhat;however,the value of the software to reduce scrap rates for what are now more expensive inputs will stop significant reductions in deployments.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Increased costs of manufa

123、cturing through increasing input expenses due to tariffs will narrow manufacturers profit margins,reducing the overall investment in Industry 4.0 solutions,including QMS software.However,QMS software is unlikely to be hit too hard by this reduction in spending,as the solution remains a top adoption

124、priority by many manufacturers,highlighted in ABI Researchs Industrial and Manufacturing Survey 2H 2024/1Q 2025:State of Play for Digital Transformation,which ranked the software as the number one investment overall to improve quality levels by manufacturers,with 53%of respondents ranking it in the

125、top 5.Reducing scrap rates from production processes is,in many ways,even more critical than it was prior to the tariffs,as components and raw material costs are now higher,leading to larger losses from scrap.Overall,QMS software retains its strong value proposition,and will only see a small drop in

126、 investment due to weaker demand from a more conservative spending climate,primarily among U.S.manufacturers,until uncertainty around tariff policies reduces.2.02.53.03.54.04.55.020252026202720282029US$BillionsGLOBAL QMS SOFTWARE REVENUE FOR DISCRETE MANUFACTURINGSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(

127、Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)15TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR13INDUSTRIAL&MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIESProduct simulation software adoption will see a slight uptick due to U.S.tariffs,as manufactures look to streamline operations

128、and reduce expenditure on costly physical prototyping.Product simulation software will be a rare winner within manufacturing software,given the new U.S.tariffs.With a global belt tightening,manufacturers are looking to maintain revenue figures,while spending less on both Capital Expenditure(CAPEX)an

129、d Operational Expenditure(OPEX).Although global manufacturing output will be met with headwinds,manufacturers will seek value from software such as product simulation that actively works to reduce production costs.Raw material and component prices are higher than last year and will likely increase b

130、efore returning to the status quo.Product simulation software eases this cost burden by allowing manufacturers to optimize product designs to minimize the total quantity of resources used without compromising on the integrity,manufacturability,and structure of the product.13.Industrial&Manufacturing

131、 Technologies Product Simulation Software Revenue Generation,World Markets(US$000s)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1(Original Forecast)3,224,885 3,466,578 3,729,481 4,015,850 4,328,235 4,669,525 5,043,003 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)3,224,885 3,499,001 3,901,386 4,447,580 4,925,694 5,295,

132、122 5,665,780 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)3,224,885 3,442,565 3,806,556 4,272,741 4,634,167 4,958,785 5,285,652 Prediction (One Sentence):Product simulation software adoption will see a slight uptick due to U.S.tariffs,as manufactures look to streamline operations and reduce expenditure on costly phy

133、sical prototyping.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Product simulation software will be a rare winner within manufacturing software,given the new U.S.tariffs.With a global belt tightening,manufacturers are looking to maintain revenue figures,while spending less on both Capital Expenditure(CAPEX)a

134、nd Operational Expenditure(OPEX).Although global manufacturing output will be met with headwinds,manufacturers will seek value from software such as product simulation that actively works to reduce production costs.Raw material and component prices are higher than last year and will likely increase

135、before returning to the status quo.Product simulation software eases this cost burden by allowing manufacturers to optimize product designs to minimize the total quantity of resources used without compromising on the integrity,manufacturability,and structure of the product.2345620252026202720282029U

136、S$BillionsGLOBAL PRODUCT SIMULATION SOFTWARE REVENUE GENERATIONSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)13.Industrial&Manufacturing Technologies Product Simulation Software Revenue Generation,World Markets(US$000s)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Series 1

137、(Original Forecast)3,224,885 3,466,578 3,729,481 4,015,850 4,328,235 4,669,525 5,043,003 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)3,224,885 3,499,001 3,901,386 4,447,580 4,925,694 5,295,122 5,665,780 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)3,224,885 3,442,565 3,806,556 4,272,741 4,634,167 4,958,785 5,285,652 Prediction (One

138、 Sentence):Product simulation software adoption will see a slight uptick due to U.S.tariffs,as manufactures look to streamline operations and reduce expenditure on costly physical prototyping.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Product simulation software will be a rare winner within manufacturing

139、software,given the new U.S.tariffs.With a global belt tightening,manufacturers are looking to maintain revenue figures,while spending less on both Capital Expenditure(CAPEX)and Operational Expenditure(OPEX).Although global manufacturing output will be met with headwinds,manufacturers will seek value

140、 from software such as product simulation that actively works to reduce production costs.Raw material and component prices are higher than last year and will likely increase before returning to the status quo.Product simulation software eases this cost burden by allowing manufacturers to optimize pr

141、oduct designs to minimize the total quantity of resources used without compromising on the integrity,manufacturability,and structure of the product.2345620252026202720282029US$BillionsGLOBAL PRODUCT SIMULATION SOFTWARE REVENUE GENERATIONSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series

142、3 (Mid-Case Forecast)16TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR14IoT MARKETSAsset tracking device shipments will likely take a hit if costs increase.Asset tracking is a notoriously price-sensitive Internet of Things(IoT)application.Most devices are made in

143、 China,or in Southeast Asiathe areas most impacted currently by the U.S.threat of tariffs.The simplistic picture is that any increase in price to asset tracker manufacturing,be it from sourcing materials(such as modules or board components)or from importing finished trackers,will reduce adoption giv

144、en carefully-constructed business cases.One immediate consequence of the tariff announcements was a small surge in demand to import manufacturers remaining asset tracking device inventories to the United States before tariffs hit.Over the course of the rest of 2025,and going into 2026,demand remains

145、 uncertain.One interesting potential consequence is an acceleration of the shift toward device subscription servicestracking solutions offered“as-a-Service”are not impacted by tariffs,given that the devices are rented and not sold.Another potential impact is the growing demand for the IoT in supply

146、chains to monitor new or changing lanes,with opportunities accruing for device suppliers,as well as platform,insights,and analytics suppliers.14.IoT Markets Asset Tracking Device Shipments(Millions)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)29.53 37.36 50.02 70.05 101.40 151.03 Series

147、2(Worst-Case Forecast)29.53 29.83 39.34 54.27 77.38 113.53 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)29.53 33.96 45.16 62.80 90.27 133.52 Prediction (One Sentence):Asset tracking device shipments will likely take a hit if costs increase.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Asset tracking is a notoriously price-sen

148、sitive Internet of Things(IoT)application.Most devices are made in China,or in Southeast Asiathe areas most impacted currently by the U.S.threat of tariffs.The simplistic picture is that any increase in price to asset tracker manufacturing,be it from sourcing materials(such as modules or board compo

149、nents)or from importing finished trackers,will reduce adoption given carefully-constructed business cases.One immediate consequence of the tariff announcements was a small surge in demand to import manufacturers remaining asset tracking device inventories to the United States before tariffs hit.Over

150、 the course of the rest of 2025,and going into 2026,demand remains uncertain.One interesting potential consequence is an acceleration of the shift toward device subscription servicestracking solutions offered“as-a-Service”are not impacted by tariffs,given that the devices are rented and not sold.Ano

151、ther potential impact is the growing demand for the IoT in supply chains to monitor new or changing lanes,with opportunities accruing for device suppliers,as well as platform,insights,and analytics suppliers.025507510012515017520252026202720282029MillionsSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Cas

152、e Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)GLOBAL ASSET TRACKING SHIPMENTS17TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR15IoT NETWORKS&PLATFORMSTariffs could adversely affect the penetration rate of intelligent video surveillance cameras,as video analytics custome

153、rs might swap edge analysis and expensive,intelligent camera hardware for cheaper,software-defined solutions.Current ABI Research forecasts show that 26%of installed video surveillance cameras in 2029 will be intelligent cameras used for video analytics.Customers will rely on these cameras for edge-

154、based workflows like motion and object detection,rather than using on-premises or cloud software to apply analytics to already-collected footage.Tariffs,however,could threaten intelligent camera adoption.The tariffs outlined by the Trump administration will increase camera component prices,disruptin

155、g the supply chain for video surveillance cameras and,ultimately,increasing overall camera prices.And while enterprises will likely withstand rising camera costs,given that video surveillance cameras are necessary security tools without clear substitutions,most customers will likely not buy the most

156、 expensive,intelligent cameras with the highest-quality video analytics.Customers will instead be inclined to use on-premises or cloud software for video analytics.These solutions can apply video analytics to footage collected by basic or legacy cameras,saving customers on increasing hardware costs.

157、Even if software suppliers cannot offer quick,at-the-edge analysis,customers will view these solutions as the more practical choice in an uncertain economic landscape.1600%1800%2000%2200%2400%2600%2800%3000%20252026202720282029Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Cas

158、e Forecast)PENETRATION RATE OF INTELLIGENT VIDEO SURVEILLANCE CAMERAS FOR VIDEO ANALYTICS 18TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR16CLOUDBy 2030,global data center site distribution is expected to shift toward Asia-Pacific,the Middle East&Africa,and Sout

159、h America,as increasing costs,policy uncertainty,and power constraints limit expansion in traditional hubs.While the growth of physical additions slows,power capacity additions and new Artificial Intelligence(AI)dedicated data centers continue to expand in the United States,whereas Europe sees mediu

160、m-term stabilization due to a renewed focus on digital sovereignty.Sustained geopolitical pressures and protectionist tariffs,as well as shifting power capacity envelopes for AI infrastructure,are accelerating the decentralization of data center infrastructure and prompting new regional demands and

161、dynamics where regulatory environments are more favorable and construction,operational,and component costs are lower.REGIONAL SHARE OF DATA CENTER SITES(PHYSICAL SITES)Region20262027202820292030Series 1(Original Forecast)North America26%25%25%24%24%Rest of the World74%75%75%76%76%Series 2(Worst-Case

162、 Forecast)North America25%23%21%21%21%Rest of the World75%77%79%79%79%Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)North America25%24%23%22%22%Rest of the World75%76%78%78%78%19TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR17QUANTUM-SAFE TECHNOLOGIESGrowth in sales of Hardware S

163、ecurity Modules(HSMs)are likely to slow,both in response to likely increased Average Selling Prices(ASPs)due to tariffs and as companies look to cut costs across the board and limit new Capital Expenditure(CAPEX).HSM use is typically driven by regulatory and standard compliance requirements.They are

164、 a key asset that cannot be replaced by other technologies for the specific industries and applications in which they are used(e.g.,payments,smart card issuance,etc.).However,in uncertain economic times,users will look to cut costs.In a mid-case scenario,usage of HSMs may be restricted to compliance

165、 requirements,and experimental trials for new use cases or novel applications(such as blockchain or other privacy-enhancing technologies)might be dropped.In a worst-case scenario,users will opt to extend the shelf life of their existing HSMs,driving out longer replacement cycles.As a result,the next

166、 few years will be largely flat for HSM shipments.It is highly unlikely that HSM shipments will drop.With the new FIPS 140-3 standard,FIPS-140-2 HSMs will not be valid after September 2026,so any delayed replacement cycles will have to happen by then.Further,the migration to Post-Quantum Cryptograph

167、y(PQC)will rely on HSM readiness,and users will have to ensure they procure Post-Quantum(PQ)-capable modules to meet the RSA/ECC deprecation deadlines of 2030.17.Quantum-Safe Technologies HSM Shipments,World Markets(Actual)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)59,149 60,220 6

168、1,822 63,660 65,681 69,263 74,655 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)59,149 60,220 60,521 62,317 64,297 66,667 70,648 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)59,149 60,220 61,424 63,182 65,252 67,586 71,479 Prediction (One Sentence):Growth in sales of Hardware Security Modules(HSMs)are likely to slow,both in response

169、to likely increased Average Selling Prices(ASPs)due to tariffs and as companies look to cut costs across the board and limit new Capital Expenditure(CAPEX).Supporting Information(One Paragraph)HSM use is typically driven by regulatory and standard compliance requirements.They are a key asset that ca

170、nnot be replaced by other technologies for the specific industries and applications in which they are used(e.g.,payments,smart card issuance,etc.).However,in uncertain economic times,users will look to cut costs.In a mid-case scenario,usage of HSMs may be restricted to compliance requirements,and ex

171、perimental trials for new use cases or novel applications(such as blockchain or other privacy-enhancing technologies)might be dropped.In a worst-case scenario,users will opt to extend the shelf life of their existing HSMs,driving out longer replacement cycles.As a result,the next few years will be l

172、argely flat for HSM shipments.It is highly unlikely that HSM shipments will drop.With the new FIPS 140-3 standard,FIPS-140-2 HSMs will not be valid after September 2026,so any delayed replacement cycles will have to happen by then.Further,the migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography(PQC)will rely on H

173、SM readiness,and users will have to ensure they procure Post-Quantum(PQ)-capable modules to meet the RSA/ECC deprecation deadlines of 2030.50,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,00020252026202720282029GLOBAL HSM SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)2

174、0TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR18RFIDRadio Frequency Identification(RFID)inlay revenue is likely to take a hit in 2025,with the recovery timeline dependent on consumer and business confidence.In addition to material price inflation for RFID inlay

175、s,the majority of the market remains dominated by apparelmaking the industry vulnerable to macroeconomic impacts.The majority of the RFID inlay market by revenue(67.5%in 2024)comes from the apparel market.While the National Retail Foundation(NRF)predicts growth between 2.7%and 3.7%in 2025,consumer b

176、elts are quick to tighten in periods of economic stressthe 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns are both examples.The main consumer confidence indices are significantly down since the start of the year(impacting the willingness to spend)and business confidence has taken a hit(impacting the w

177、illingness to invest,or at least requiring a faster Return on Investment(ROI)justification).Both of these have a knock-on effect on RFID sales.Additionally,apparel brands are thinking about changing sourcing and pricing strategies,with two main impacts.First,they have other priorities currently.Seco

178、nd,a change in sourcing(to diversify from Chinaresponsible today for 20.8%of apparel heading to the United States)does not simply mean finding new partners and facilities in countries with oversubscribed capacity,but also re-establishing RFID tagging processes.Chinas long-standing dominance in the a

179、pparel manufacturing industry means that it is well-regarded for its RFID tagging capabilities.By contrast,apparel brand owners have described the processes,experience,and investment in RFID by contract manufacturers in other countries(such as Bangladesh or Vietnam)as more of a Wild West.01234562025

180、2026202720282029US$BillionsGLOBAL UHF RFID INLAY REVENUESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)21TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR19SMART BUILDINGSTariffs will directly increase global Heating,Ventilation

181、,and Air Conditioning(HVAC)system costs due to shifts in raw material sourcing,sensor components,and manufacturing costs.The HVAC industry has been experiencing healthy growth over the past few years,driven by energy consumption regulation,open software ecosystems,advancements in connectivity,and de

182、carbonizing building portfolios.The HVAC hardware and sensor vertical has been heavily reliant on global supply chains from China,India,the European Union(EU),and Canada to thrive in a competitive marketplace.The tariffs ranging from 10%to 54%have dramatically increased component prices,material sou

183、rcing,and transportation costs,thus disrupting supply chains today and threatening U.S.global market share.Established market leaders like ABB,Johnson Control,Honeywell International,Siemens AG,and Schneider Electric(SE)are bracing for price increases from 5%to 15%,diversifying suppliers to lock lon

184、g-term partnerships and investing in multi-nodal domestic manufacturing with the ability to absorb costs to capture market share.For instance,SE is investing US$700 million in localized production in Ohio,Tennessee,Texas,North Carolina,Missouri,and Massachusetts.Alternate forecasts demonstrate two s

185、cenarios,one with a measured reduction in shipments and cost increases of up to 5%,while Scenario 3 represents up to a 15%reduction in Heating,Ventilation,and Air Conditioning(HVAC)system shipments due to price increases of up to 20%and customer restraint.Forward-looking companies are focusing on hi

186、gh-growth areas integrating Artificial Intelligence(AI),the Internet of Things(IoT),and wireless technology to streamline manufacturing costs,tapping into retrofit buildings and creating software tools to track to create resilient supply chains in an evolving market.HVAC SYSTEM SHIPMENTS AND REVENUE

187、20252026202720282029Series 1(Original Forecast)Shipments(Millions)18.7221.8223.7925.2527.21Revenue(US$Billions)217.18252.57276.93295.06319.09Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Shipments(Millions)17.7820.8422.8424.3726.39Revenue(US$Billions)225.04265.03291.92312.93340.55Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)Shipment

188、s(Millions)15.9118.4419.9921.0922.58Revenue(US$Billions)209.21245.89270.23289.00313.7122TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR20SMART ENERGYU.S.tariffs on renewable energy assets,in particular solar Photo-voltaics(PV)technologies,will significantly reduc

189、e the share of new domestic U.S.energy installations that are“renewable”in favor of a resurgence in legacy fuelsmost notably natural gas.Installations of new“renewable”U.S.energy generation capacity(wind,solar PV,hydroelectric,etc.)hit highs of 90%in 2024,driven by federal and state-level regulatory

190、 and investment pushes,an abundance of cheap renewable technology produced by countries in Southeast Asia and China,and low per-Megawatt-Hour(MWh)prices for solar and wind power.However,the first 100 days under the new administration marked a shift:regulation increasingly favors expansions in natura

191、l gas and coal-based generation,wind projects have been frozen,and Liberation Day tariffs now threaten import restrictions exceeding 3000%on Southeast Asia-originating solar PV products.Series 1(original forecast)represents the forecast status quo,absent tariffs.In this scenario,the renewable share

192、of new generation capacity is still expected to decline,reflecting the U.S.administrations freeze on new wind installations and preference for hydrocarbon investment,but this decline is not worsened by significant restrictions on solar PV imports.Series 2(worst-case forecast)reflects this decline du

193、e to policy,but with the addition of significant tariffs on solar PV and other renewable technologies.In this case,current tariffs,which in some cases exceed 3000%,remain in place throughout the next few years,creating a de facto embargo on renewable imports.Consequently,the per-MWh cost of renewabl

194、e energy significantly increases,which,alongside freezes on wind projects and a push for legacy generation types,creates adverse market conditions for further renewable adoption and a significant renewal in natural gas prospecting and coal-fired generation.Series 3(mid-case forecast)imagines a situa

195、tion in which tariffs on imported renewable technologies remain,but are reduced to between 50%and 80%.In this scenario,despite rising costs,tariffs will only suppress further renewable capacity installations by an additional 10%by 2030,relative to the baseline(Series 1)case.SHARE OF U.S.ENERGY GENER

196、ATION INSTALLATIONS BY TYPE(%OF OVERALL NEW CAPACITY)20252026202720282029Series 1(Original Forecast)Renewables 87.3%83.8%79.6%75.6%73.4%Legacy Fuels 12.7%16.2%20.4%24.4%26.6%Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Renewables81.0%71.3%60.6%49.7%42.2%Legacy Fuels19.0%28.7%39.4%50.3%57.8%Series 3 (Mid-Case Foreca

197、st)Renewables84.6%78.7%71.6%64.4%61.2%Legacy Fuels15.4%21.3%28.4%35.6%38.8%23TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR21SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARESupply chain planning software will experience rapid expansion in 2025 and beyond as enterprises worldwid

198、e will turn to digital solutions to enhance supply chain resilience due to U.S.tariffs.Supply chain planning software is poised for rapid expansion,driven by escalating global disruptions and protectionist trade measures such as the newly imposed U.S.tariffs.As enterprises contend with shifting sour

199、cing strategies,rising input costs,and demand volatility,ABI Research expects planning tools to offer a critical advantage in enhancing visibility and supply chain resilience.Advanced platforms are increasingly leveraging Artificial Intelligence(AI)and scenario modeling to simulate tariff impacts an

200、d optimize processes like inventory management,supplier selection,and production schedules.Cloud-native solutions can facilitate stakeholder collaboration among dispersed supply chain nodes across different regions,helping enterprises rapidly adapt to new trade landscapes.As a result,ABI Result anti

201、cipates strong growth for supply chain planning solutions,with an over 7%growth rate globally,even as a“worst case scenario.”The digital shift to supply chain planning is now a must-haveresilience and competitiveness now depend on real-time,intelligent planning capabilities.21.Supply Chain Managemen

202、t Software Supply Chain Planning Software Revenue,World Markets(US$Billions)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Original Forecast 14.80 16.88 19.25 21.96 25.04 28.56 32.57 Worst-Case Forecast 14.80 15.90 17.07 18.33 19.69 21.15 22.71 Mid-Case Forecast 14.80 16.43 18.24 20.24 22.47 24.94 27.68 Predict

203、ion (One Sentence):Supply chain planning software will experience rapid expansion in 2025 and beyond as enterprises worldwide will turn to digital solutions to enhance supply chain resilience due to U.S.tariffs.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Supply chain planning software is poised for rapid e

204、xpansion,driven by escalating global disruptions and protectionist trade measures such as the newly imposed U.S.tariffs.As enterprises contend with shifting sourcing strategies,rising input costs,and demand volatility,ABI Research expects planning tools to offer a critical advantage in enhancing vis

205、ibility and supply chain resilience.Advanced platforms are increasingly leveraging Artificial Intelligence(AI)and scenario modeling to simulate tariff impacts and optimize processes like inventory management,supplier selection,and production schedules.Cloud-native solutions can facilitate stakeholde

206、r collaboration among dispersed supply chain nodes across different regions,helping enterprises rapidly adapt to new trade landscapes.As a result,ABI Result anticipates strong growth for supply chain planning solutions,with an over 7%growth rate globally,even as a“worst case scenario.”The digital sh

207、ift to supply chain planning is now a must-haveresilience and competitiveness now depend on real-time,intelligent planning capabilities.0510152025303520252026202720282029US$BillionsGLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PLANNING SOFTWARE REVENUESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case

208、 Forecast)24TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR22FREIGHT TRANSPORTATIONInbound maritime cargo volumes to the U.S.are expected to fall due to rising import costs.The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reduction in shipments,with the Ports o

209、f Los Angeles and Long Beach anticipating a 35%drop in cargo volumes from China.As a result,ABI Research forecasts that inbound maritime cargo volume in the United States will drop in the coming years.In response to trade uncertainties,companies are diversifying sourcing away from China.Shipping gia

210、nt Maersk is redirecting 20%of its capacity from China-U.S.routes to other emerging markets.Furthermore,the cumulative effect of trade policies and supply chain disruptions also contributes to economic headwinds,indicating a potential recession,which could further dampen consumer demand.Furthermore,

211、ABI Research anticipates an increase in localized supply chains with more reshoring efforts,which will further add to falling imports.22.Freight Transportation Inbound Maritime Cargo Volume,United States(Million Metric Tons)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Original Forecast 580.3 575.6 571.0 566.5

212、 561.9 557.4 553.0 Worst-Case Forecast 580.3 566.4 552.8 539.5 526.6 513.9 501.6 Mid-Case Forecast 580.3 571.0 561.9 552.9 544.0 535.3 526.8 Prediction (One Sentence):Inbound maritime cargo volumes to the United States are expected to fall due to rising import costs.Supporting Information(One Paragr

213、aph)The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reduction in shipments,with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach anticipating a 35%drop in cargo volumes from China.As a result,ABI Research forecasts that inbound maritime cargo volume in the United States will drop in the coming years.In re

214、sponse to trade uncertainties,companies are diversifying sourcing away from China.Shipping giant Maersk is redirecting 20%of its capacity from China-U.S.routes to other emerging markets.Furthermore,the cumulative effect of trade policies and supply chain disruptions also contributes to economic head

215、winds,indicating a potential recession,which could further dampen consumer demand.Furthermore,ABI Research anticipates an increase in localized supply chains with more reshoring efforts,which will further add to falling imports.50052555057560020252026202720282029Million Metric TonsU.S.INBOUND MARITI

216、ME CARGO VOLUMESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)22.Freight Transportation Inbound Maritime Cargo Volume,United States(Million Metric Tons)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Original Forecast 580.3 575.6 571.0 566.5 561.9 557.4 553.0 Worst-Case Forec

217、ast 580.3 566.4 552.8 539.5 526.6 513.9 501.6 Mid-Case Forecast 580.3 571.0 561.9 552.9 544.0 535.3 526.8 Prediction (One Sentence):Inbound maritime cargo volumes to the United States are expected to fall due to rising import costs.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)The imposition of tariffs has l

218、ed to a significant reduction in shipments,with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach anticipating a 35%drop in cargo volumes from China.As a result,ABI Research forecasts that inbound maritime cargo volume in the United States will drop in the coming years.In response to trade uncertainties,compa

219、nies are diversifying sourcing away from China.Shipping giant Maersk is redirecting 20%of its capacity from China-U.S.routes to other emerging markets.Furthermore,the cumulative effect of trade policies and supply chain disruptions also contributes to economic headwinds,indicating a potential recess

220、ion,which could further dampen consumer demand.Furthermore,ABI Research anticipates an increase in localized supply chains with more reshoring efforts,which will further add to falling imports.U.S.INBOUND MARITIME CARGO VOLUMESeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case

221、 Forecast)25TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR23WAREHOUSING&FULFILLMENTInvestment in fixed warehouse automation will drop in the United States in the short term as both material prices and uncertainty increase.The United States has consistently been

222、at the forefront of warehouse automation and System Integrators(SIs)have seen the lions share of their revenue come from U.S.-based projects;however,this could change as tariffs come into force.The first reason is that tariffs threaten to increase the prices of materials most commonly used to build

223、fixed material handling systems,such as steel.Companies may opt to invest in mobile automation that is less affected and requires much lower upfront capital.In addition,a significant number of the leading SIs in the market(Daifuku,KNAPP,SSI Schaefer,etc.)are not U.S.-based,and while they all have we

224、ll-established U.S.branches,they may lose competitiveness in the U.S.market.ABI Research forecasts that SI revenue growth in the United States will slow(not stall)in the short term,but it will recover in the medium term as market conditions stabilize.01020304020252026202720282029US$BillionsSeries 1(

225、Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)NORTH AMERICAN WAREHOUSE AUTOMATION SYSTEM INTEGRATOR REVENUE26TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR24AUTOMOTIVEA protracted automotive trade war would depress North American pas

226、senger car market shipments back to COVID-19 levels.A steep increase in tariffs on vehicles and components imported into the United States is set to depress new car sales in 2025.The combined effect of vehicle prices increasing by around US$4,000 to US$6,000 and the general chilling effect of higher

227、 consumer prices and faltering economic growth are expected to cause vehicle sales to drop by almost 500,000 units compared to 2024.However,the overall 2025 figures are set to be flattered by a strong 1Q,with 2026 representing the nadir,as Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs)take time to shift pro

228、duction of key models to take advantage of unutilized U.S.manufacturing capacity.Over the course of 2025 and 2026,a succession of trade agreements are expected to echo the recently announced trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom,in which a compromise is reached that results in

229、import tariffs lower than 25%,but higher than the status quo before April 3.This would set the stage for a gradual return to growth from 2027 onward,but this could be threatened by an escalation of tit-for-tat restrictions enforced by major trading partners on U.S.vehicles and components.These could

230、 range from higher tariffs to outright embargos,or even restricting U.S.manufacturer access to critical technologies and components sourced from overseas.Not only would this worsen the global economic picture,but it would also complicate the business case for shifting model production back to the Un

231、ited States.05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00020252026202720282029NORTH AMERICAN NEW PASSENGER VEHICLE SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)27TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR25SOUTHEAST

232、ASIA DIGITAL TRANSFORMATIONThe mid-case forecast(the scenario where only the base tariff rate of 10%is applied)sees AI/ML enterprise spending falling to US$2.9 billion by 2028,whereas the worst-case forecast(the scenario where varying reciprocal tariffs are imposed on a per-country basis)sees AI/ML

233、enterprise spending falling further to US$2.6 billion in 2028.The U.S.tariffs are expected to impact the bottom line of many manufacturers in Southeast Asia,a region that heavily relies on exports to the United States.For example,Vietnams exports to the United States amounted to 29%of its overall ex

234、port value,while Indonesias export proportion to the United States stood at 21%.As a result of the impact of tariffs on revenue,enterprise spending on technology and AI/ML solution deployments is forecast to decline.Recent news about the pausing and/or slowdown of international data center expansion

235、 plans by Amazon Web Services(AWS)and Microsoft also provides evidence of this,bringing to attention general concerns about the weakening growth of AI/ML solution adoption among enterprises globally in the face of global economic uncertainty.In the case that reciprocal tariffs are also implemented b

236、y the United States,the impact on revenue,and therefore spending,is likely to worsen.25 Southeast Asia Digital Transformation AI/ML Enterprise Spending Across Southeast Asia(US$Millions)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)1,685 1,941 2,226 2,540 2,881 3,244 Series 2(Worst-C

237、ase Forecast)1,685 1,941 1,970 2,089 2,301 2,659 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)1,685 1,941 2,062 2,322 2,655 2,960 Prediction (One Sentence):The mid-case forecast(the scenario where only the base tariff rate of 10%is applied)sees Artificial Intelligence(AI)/Machine Learning(ML)enterprise spending falli

238、ng to US$2.9 billion by 2028,whereas the worst-case forecast(the scenario where varying reciprocal tariffs are imposed on a per-country basis)sees AI/ML enterprise spending falling further to US$2.6 billion in 2028.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)The U.S.tariffs are expected to impact the botto

239、m line of many manufacturers in Southeast Asia,a region that heavily relies on exports to the United States.For example,Vietnams exports to the United States amounted to 29%of its overall export value,while Indonesias export proportion to the United States stood at 21%.As a result of the impact of t

240、ariffs on revenue,enterprise spending on technology and AI/ML solution deployments is forecast to decline.Recent news about the pausing and/or slowdown of international data center expansion plans by Amazon Web Services(AWS)and Microsoft also provides evidence of this,bringing to attention general c

241、oncerns about the weakening growth of AI/ML solution adoption among enterprises globally in the face of global economic uncertainty.In the case that reciprocal tariffs are also implemented by the United States,the impact on revenue,and therefore spending,is likely to worsen.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003

242、,0003,50020242025202620272028US$MillionsSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)SOUTHEAST ASIAN AI/ML ENTERPRISE SPENDING28TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR26SPACE TECHNOLOGIES&INNOVATIONIn a mid-case scen

243、ario,satellite deployments may face moderate disruptionsfrom supply chain issues,rising capital costs,and launch delaysleading to a limited 2%to 3%reduction in total satellite de-ployment potential by the forecasts end,while in a worst-case scenario,these challenges could escalate and persist,result

244、ing in a more severe impact exceed-ing a 10%reduction throughout the forecast.Tariffs from the new U.S.administration have introduced a more complex and challenging environment for the space sector,particularly for space production activities,as a more complex supply chain and rising capital costs f

245、or essential components could impact larger-scale Low Earth Orbit(LEO)networks.The increased capital requirements for these large-scale networks will slow the network deployment.A long-reaching cost impact will trickle downstream in the form of higher service costs for customers.New space LEO and ro

246、cket manufacturers such as SpaceX,Amazon Project Kuiper,and Blue Origin,as well as legacy aerospace manufacturers Boeing,Lockheed Martin,Northrop Grumman,and L3Harris are expected to be impacted by component cost spikes and supply chain complexities.Reciprocal tariffs will also negatively affect the

247、se companies ability to export and deliver products to international markets.26 Space Technologies&Innovation Satellite Deployments,World Markets(Actual)2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Series 1(Original Forecast)11,363 14,174 17,545 21,375 25,551 29,973 Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)11,363 14,174

248、16,848 19,921 23,310 26,935 Series 3(Mid-Case Forecast)11,363 14,174 17,433 21,175 25,284 29,658 Prediction (One Sentence):In a mid-case scenario,satellite deployments may face moderate disruptionsfrom supply chain issues,rising capital costs,and launch delaysleading to a limited 2%to 3%reduction in

249、 total satellite deployment potential by the forecasts end,while in a worst-case scenario,these challenges could escalate and persist,resulting in a more severe impact exceeding a 10%reduction throughout the forecast.Supporting Information(One Paragraph)Tariffs from the new U.S.administration have i

250、ntroduced a more complex and challenging environment for the space sector,particularly for space production activities,as a more complex supply chain and rising capital costs for essential components could impact larger-scale Low Earth Orbit(LEO)networks.The increased capital requirements for these

251、large-scale networks will slow the network deployment.A long-reaching cost impact will trickle downstream in the form of higher service costs for customers.New space LEO and rocket manufacturers such as SpaceX,Amazon Project Kuiper,and Blue Origin,as well as legacy aerospace manufacturers Boeing,Loc

252、kheed Martin,Northrop Grumman,and L3Harris are expected to be impacted by component cost spikes and supply chain complexities.Reciprocal tariffs will also negatively affect these companies ability to export and deliver products to international markets.10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00020242025202

253、620272028Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)GLOBAL SATELLITE DEPLOYMENTS29TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR27TELCO CYBERSECURITYWith smartphone tariff exemptions being at the center of back-and-forth

254、announcements,there is a dual threat of skyrocketing device prices amid a general downturn for consumer spending,resulting in eSIM-enabled device shipments seeing much low-er traction in the region than expected as replacement cycles lengthen and lower cost,eSIM-incapable models are preferred.While

255、smartphones were initially exempted from tariffs,an almost immediate subsequent announcement threatened the supply chain once again,with Trump warning that these devices would soon be subject to the general U.S.-China tariff ratewith heights of 145%pulled down to 80%.The exact figure does have some

256、impact,particularly on how Apple-manufactured devices fare.An 80%rate could be absorbed between margin cuts and increased prices,creating a more limited shipment downturn.This is particularly true if the situation is to be short-livedApple might be inclined to take some short-term economic pain in o

257、rder to maintain its 55%market share in the U.S.,especially if it can quickly ramp up alternative manufacturing in India.For other vendors with less margin available to limit price increases,the impact will be harder felt.With threats of recession looming,consumers may soon be forced to replace devi

258、ces less often,and opt for lower-cost options.This is a severe blow for eSIM adoption.eSIM integration primarily remains the remit of new and higher-end devices,and Apple dominates in the U.S.,constituting 80%of eSIM smartphone shipments.The premium cost of these devices makes eSIM device shipments

259、in the U.S.extraordinarily susceptible to consumer spending downturns.In all likelihood,there will be specific exemptions,with the administration focusing on security justifications,therefore leaving a lot of room to exempt manufacturers,like Apple and Google as being U.S.-designed.This leaves eSIM

260、device shipments primarily impacted by overall drops in consumer spending,and the loss of the small margin of devices shipped by other manufacturersproducing our mid-case scenario forecast.However,should the administrations economic strategy turbulence drive the U.S.toward a full recession,and shoul

261、d exemptions for Apple and Google not be forthcoming,shipments will fall much more considerably.for Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs)like Apple and Google not be forthcoming,or be limited in scope,shipments will fall much more considerably.025507510012515020252026202720282029MillionsNORTH AMERI

262、CAN eSIM SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)for Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs)like Apple and Google not be forthcoming,or be limited in scope,shipments will fall much more considerably.025507510012515020252026202720282029Mi

263、llionsNORTH AMERICAN eSIM SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTSSeries 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)30TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR28TRUSTED DEVICE SOLUTIONSAs tariffs tighten on Artificial Intelligence(AI)and other

264、 server-related hardware required for Confidential Com-puting(CC),including Graphics Processing Units(GPUs)and hardware accelerators,CC hardware revenue will experience a short-term downturn,largely recovering toward the end of the decade.Central Processing Unit(CPU)-based CC is expected to get off

265、mostly scot-free,with AMD and Intel processors exempt from the tariffs given their official status as U.S.-shipped.Excitement around the application of CC in AI-related use cases,relying on AI servers and GPU-based CC,was originally forecast to accelerate CC uptake,serving as a primary driver for CC

266、 hardware revenue while NVIDIAs announcement of CC capabilities in its H100 and GB200 series was set to revolutionize the CC market.Yet,even before the April 2025 U.S.tariff announcements,the pre-existing trade war between the Biden administration and Chinese government,and AI diffusion rules threat

267、ened to derail the sale of NVIDIA GPUs not only to China,but to other countries,including Israel,India,Saudi Arabia,and Switzerland.While original tariffs on NVIDIAs GPUs have already been baked into its pricing,even incremental increases in tariffs could drastically impact GPU pricing,reducing cons

268、umer spending in this market,negatively impacting CC revenue.While CC spending is largely limited to enterprise environments,newness and the relative lack of awareness in its security-enhancing capabilities makes it a price-sensitive market,exposing it to larger drops in revenue in the short term.Kn

269、ock-on supply chain disruptions are also expected to impact facilitating technologies,including hardware accelerators like Field Programmable Gate Array(FPGA)chips,with Intel and AMD considering moving production of key components to Vietnam and India,respectively.This price sensitivity leaks over i

270、nto the software side and,given the prospect of a weakened U.S.economy,demand for CC-enabling software and services packages is expected to drop,further stifling innovation in CC and capping the market.024681012141618202220252026202720282029US$BillionsCONFIDENTIAL COMPUTING ASSOCIATED HARDWARE REVEN

271、UE Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)31TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR29WI-FI&WLAN TECHNOLOGIES&MARKETSEconomic uncertainty will hamper Wi-Fi 7 Customer Premises Equipment(CPE)shipments as Internet

272、 Service Providers(ISPs)reevaluate Wi-Fi 7 deployments.The impact of the tariffs on residential Wi-Fi 7 CPE will be twofold.First,the general economic uncertainty that followed the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs has negatively impacted both consumer and business sentiment,resulting in mo

273、re conservative spending from both groups.Consumers,which are more concerned about their finances,are likely to delay or even abandon their purchases of new expensive Wi-Fi 7 hardware,choosing instead to make do with their existing equipment.ISPs,on the other hand,may look beyond capital-intensive u

274、pgrades to Wi-Fi 7 CPE as a means to increase Average Revenue per User(ARPU)and raise their competitive edge,and instead might consider deploying over-the-top value-added services as an alternative.Coupled with the general worldwide economic malaise is the impact of the tariffs themselves,which will

275、 significantly increase the price of Wi-Fi equipment production and importation.While current tariffs on Wi-Fi equipment are not overwhelming(20%for hardware originating from Mainland China,10%for equipment from every other nation),the swiftness with which tariffs were imposed in April suggests that

276、 they could be reapplied again at any point,dissuading ISPs from committing to large investments in new hardware until firmer trade agreements are set in stone.Regardless,whatever the final tariffs ends up being,it will disproportionately impact higher cost items,exacerbating the disparity between l

277、ower-cost Wi-Fi 6 equipment and the more expensive Wi-Fi 7 equipment.In ABI Researchs updated forecast for shipments of residential Wi-Fi 7 CPE,the mid-case scenario assumes that Wi-Fi equipment is broadly exempt from tariffs,except for the current rates mentioned above,but demand for Wi-Fi 7 equipm

278、ent suffers due to the broader economic challenges.The worst-case scenario,on the other hand(an unlikely but not implausible outcome),forecasts Wi-Fi equipment shipments in the event that U.S.-China trade relations break down again,and the current administration imposes high tariffs not just on Wi-F

279、i equipment originating from Mainland China,but also on third-countries that act as overseas production and distribution sites for Chinese firms.25507510012515017520022525020252026202720282029MillionsRESIDENTIAL WI-FI 7 CPE SHIPMENTS Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (

280、Mid-Case Forecast)32TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WAR30WI-FI,BLUETOOTH&WIRELESS CONNECTIVITYHaving recently emerged from the tunnel of inventory challenges and low demand visibility,the wireless connectivity market faces a new period of uncertainty,

281、driven by tariffs,supply chain challenges,and fluctuating consumer sentiment.Early 2025 reporting from wireless connectivity vendors demonstrates a return to strong growth after a very difficult period of navigating excess inventory and limited visibility on consumer demand.With this in mind,ABI Res

282、earch had forecast a very strong year for the connectivity industry,with total Integrated Circuit(IC)revenue expected to grow by 13%Year-over-Year(YoY).However,large-scale tariffs,which fluctuate sometimes on a daily basis,are causing enormous uncertainty both within the IC supplier ecosystem and fo

283、r device manufacturers and end users.This has given way to price increases across many market segments,weakening consumer sentiment,and broader economic challenges,which may also bring a similar reduction in demand and inventory challenges over time.It is also not yet clear the extent to which produ

284、ct manufacturers have been pre-emptively ordering semiconductor components to avoid tariffs and price increases.However,there is a chance that while 1Q and 2Q performance will be strong,orders could significantly slow down over the course of the next 2 quarters as the impact of the initial tariffs a

285、nd continued uncertainty hits.Depending on market demand,this could potentially lead to a repeat of the excessive inventory problems faced over the past couple of years.As a result,ABI Research believes that the market will still grow when compared to the very difficult last couple of years,but perh

286、aps significantly less than the strong results from the last 2 quarters would suggest initially.Of course,in the worst-case scenario with prolonged,high,and reciprocal tariffs,the impact could be much more negative from both supply and demand perspectives.101520253020252026202720282029US$BillionsWIR

287、ELESS IC SHIPMENT REVENUE Series 1(Original Forecast)Series 2(Worst-Case Forecast)Series 3 (Mid-Case Forecast)33TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WARMeet The AnalystsStuart Carlaw,Chief Research OfficerAs Chief Research Officer,Stuart Carlaw leads ABI R

288、esearchs analyst teams covering global technology markets.Stuarts primary responsibility includes managing industry research content,technology and market focus,subject matter guidance,product portfolio mix,and custom research and consulting,as well as client engagements and strategic advisory provi

289、sioning.Dan Shey,Vice PresidentDan Shey,Vice President,Enabling Platforms at ABI Research,manages the Machine-to-Machine(M2M)/Internet of Things(IoT),digital security,and wearables research services,which cover the telco,industrial,Information Technology(IT)and Operational Technology(OT)ecosystems w

290、ith a focus on devices,connectivity,platforms,applications,big data/analytics,convergence,and strategic analysis of the entire IoT value chain extending from devices through value-added services.James Hodgson,Research DirectorJames Hodgson,Research Director at ABI Research,conducts research related

291、to the field of autonomous driving and smart mobility,with a focus primarily on quantitative forecasting and analysis in the areas of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems(ADAS),autonomous driving,and connected infotainment.Michela Menting,Senior Research DirectorMichela Menting delivers analyses and f

292、orecasts focusing on digital security.She studies the latest solutions in cybersecurity technologies,from trusted silicon and hardware to secure applications and infrastructures.She delivers end-to-end security research,closely analyzing opportunities,and industry-specific implementations,including

293、enterprise,government,financial,industrial,and IoT.Reece Hayden,Principal AnalystReece Hayden leads the Artificial Intelligence(AI)and Machine Learning(ML)research service.His primary focus is uncovering the technical,commercial,and economic opportunities in AI software and AI markets.Reece explores

294、 AI software across the complete value chain,with a cross-vertical and global viewpoint,to provide strategic guidance for,among others,enterprises,hardware and software vendors,hyper scalers,system integrators,and communication service providers.34TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN

295、 THE FACE OF A RENEWED TRADE WARMeet The AnalystsAndrew Spivey,Principal AnalystAndrew Spivey is a Principal Analyst on the Strategic Technologies team focused on wireless connectivity at ABI Research.He is responsible for producing qualitative analysis and market forecasts in consumer and enterpris

296、e Wi-Fi and wireless infrastructure,Fixed Wireless Access(FWA),and other trends impacting wireless networking technologies.George Chowdhury,Industry AnalystGeorge Chowdhury is an Industry Analyst on the Strategic Technologies team at ABI Research.George provides research,analysis,and insight into in

297、dustrial,collaborative,and commercial robotics,focusing on robotic technologies that interact with and augment the human workforce in line with industrial transformation.Ryan Wiggin,Senior AnalystRyan Wiggin is a Senior Analyst on the ABI Research End Markets team.His focus is on supply chain manage

298、ment and logistics.Prior to joining ABI Research,Ryan served as a National Supply Chain Management Assistant for Aldi U.K.James Iversen,Industry AnalystJames Iversen is an Industry Analyst on the Verticals and End Markets team at ABI Research.James provides research,analysis,and insight into the Ind

299、ustrial and Manufacturing sector,with core specialization in Cloud Manufacturing,Product Lifecycle Management,Simulation,and Generative Design.Adhish Luitel,Principal AnalystAdhish Luitel,provides global supply chain management research coverage,including on fleet management,warehousing and fulfillm

300、ent,retail technologies,and connected assets.He leads research on emerging areas such as telematics technologies,AI Video,aftermarket ADAS,autonomous trucks,material handling automation,and digital solutions implementation.35TARIFF FORECASTS&FALLOUT:30 TECH MARKET SCENARIOS IN THE FACE OF A RENEWED

301、TRADE WARBen Chan,Research AnalystResearch Analyst Benjamin Chan is a member of the Asia-Pacific Advisory team focused on issues related to Artificial Intelligence(AI)and Machine Learning(ML)implementation and digital transformation.Benjamin also focuses on key technological developments within the

302、Southeast Asian region.Georgia Cooke,Research AnalystGeorgia Cooke is a Research Analyst within ABI Researchs Digital Security team,conducting research on topics such as 5G security and RISC-V.Georgia works closely with security providers to understand the state of these markets and deliver actionab

303、le analysis.Abu Miah,Research AnalystAbu Miah,Research Analyst at ABI Research,is a member of the End Markets team.Abu is responsible for research within the Smart Mobility and Automotive service,focusing on connected cars and software-defined vehicles.Before joining ABI Research,Abu was a Research

304、Assistant at the Sad Business School,University of Oxford,focusing on corporate Environmental,Social,and Governance(ESG)strategy and governance,ESG assurance,and activist investing.Meet The AnalystsLarbi Belkhit,Industry AnalystIndustry Analyst Larbi Belkhit is part of ABI Researchs Strategic Techno

305、logies research group focused on 5G,6G,and Open RAN research.He is responsible for producing qualitative analysis and market forecasts on indoor and outdoor network infrastructure,Fixed Wireless Access(FWA),Massive MIMO,and other trends impacting network technologies.James Prestwood,Industry Analyst

306、As part of the Industrial&Manufacturing team,James Prestwood leads research on high-impact digital technologies in manufacturing production,operations,and service.His research focuses on the most transformative innovations within and across these core domains,including Manufacturing Execution System

307、s(MES),industrial automation(hardware and software),and quality.We Empower Technology Innovation and Strategic Implementation.ABI Research is uniquely positioned at the intersection of end-market companies and technology solution providers,serving as the bridge that seamlessly connects these two seg

308、ments by driving successful technology implementations and delivering strategies that are proven to attract and retain customers.2025 ABI Research.Used by permission.Disclaimer:Permission granted to reference,reprint or reissue ABI products is expressly not an endorsement of any kind for any company

309、,product,or strategy.ABI Research is an independent producer of market analysis and insight and this ABI Research product is the result of objective research by ABI Research staff at the time of data collection.ABI Research was not compensated in any way to produce this information and the opinions

310、of ABI Research or its analysts on any subject are continually revised based on the most current data available.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.ABI Research disclaims all warranties,express or implied,with respect to this research,including any

311、 warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.Published May 2025157 Columbus Avenue New York,NY 10023Tel:+1 516-624-When the COVID-19 pandemic hit,ABI Research was there to provide the market intelligence needed for organizations to survive in uncertain times.We are committed to

312、 replicating that success with our clients amid new tariff uncertainties.To learn how a partnership with us can help your organization stay afloat or even identify emerging opportunities,contact us today.We will walk you through the existing and upcoming reports,market data,and competitive analyses pertaining to your areas of interest.NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADECONTACT US TODAY