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1、消费周期与消费周期与AI叙事下的中国互联网投资新范式叙事下的中国互联网投资新范式A New Paradigm for China Internet Investment in the Era of Consumption Cycles and AI Narratives本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Pleasesee appendix

2、for English translation of the disclaimer)Equity Asia Research曹蕾娜曹蕾娜Leina Cao 胡佳璐胡佳璐Rebecca Hu 4 Jun 20252投资要点板块观点：下半年继续看好恒生科技。今年以来中国资产重估叙事发酵，港股继续震荡上行，不过估值仍然不算高。展望未来，短期中美贸易谈判仍有较大不确定性，或将对港股风险偏好和盈利预期形成扰动，不过国内政策发力驱动基本面修复，叠加港股资金面持续改善，港股下半年或将向上。结构上，港股中云集诸多稀缺优质资产的恒生科技板块更加值得重视。建议关注两条主线：（1 1）AIAI催化+基本面趋势向上，

3、关注阿里巴巴-WW、快手-WW。阿里巴巴-WW：4Q25FY淘天CMR同比增12%，云智能集团收入加速趋势有望延续；考虑到淘天业务基数效应&全站推渗透率提升，同时云业务受益于AI等相关产品助推，展望1-2Q26FY，我们认为，公司基本面向上趋势有望延续。快手-WW：我们认为，受益于抖音策略调整，快手电商业务格局有望阶段性改善；可灵2.0版本更新迭代为全维度提升的生产力工具，有较大应用空间。（2 2）虽短期投入改善平台生态，但商业模式优，中长期壁垒稳固，且出海/外卖积极拓展第二成长曲线，关注美团-WW、拼多多、京东集团-SWSW。美团-WW：短期积极投入夯实份额，长期壁垒稳固（外卖兼具双边网络效

4、应和锁定效应，达到临界规模后形成正循环，竞争优势将长期保持）；Keeta打造第二增长曲线（自23年10月Keeta在利雅得上线后，在沙特阿拉伯充分展现了产品实力和技术实力；计划在未来五年内在巴西市场投入10亿美元）。拼多多：公司聚焦生态建设投入，短期盈利有所承压（1Q25Non-GAAP净利同比-47%），但长期有望夯实生态壁垒，且考虑到基数效应，预计下半年盈利有望回升；同时TEMU加速半托管及欧洲等全球市场布局，全球发展空间广阔。京东集团-SWSW：1Q25收入超预期，得益于以旧换新景气延续&用户数持续增长（1Q25季度活跃用户数同比增超20%，3P商家成交用户数和订单量延续双位数增长）；6

5、18期间，外卖日单量破2500万，我们认为，外卖作为高频业务，有望带动其零售业务加速发展。风险提示：行业竞争加剧；AIAI进展不及预期；稳增长政策落地进度不及预期；国际贸易环境超预期恶化。3/30101板块：下半年继续看好恒生科技405101520253035-30-20-1001020304050607024-01 24-01 24-01 24-02 24-02 24-03 24-03 24-04 24-04 24-05 24-05 24-06 24-06 24-07 24-07 24-07 24-08 24-08 24-09 24-09 24-10 24-10 24-11 24-11 24

6、-12 24-12 24-12 25-01 25-01 25-02 25-0225-0325-03 25-04 25-04 25-0525-05累计涨跌幅（%，左轴）PE TTM（倍，右轴）今年以来中国资产重估叙事发酵，港股震荡上行。4月关税扰动下有所回落，不过5月中美经贸局势缓和后港股迎来反弹。展望未来，短期中美贸易谈判仍有较大不确定性，或将对港股风险偏好和盈利预期形成扰动，不过国内政策发力驱动基本面修复，叠加港股资金面持续改善，港股下半年或将向上。市场回顾01资料来源：WIND，HTI恒生科技指数恒生科技指数2024年以来累计涨跌幅及估值（年以来累计涨跌幅及估值（20250530）5估值：

7、从国际对比视角看，目前港股估值仍然不算高01资料来源：WIND，Bloomberg，HTI全球主要市场估值比较（全球主要市场估值比较（PETTM，20250530）中国主要科技龙头估值（中国主要科技龙头估值（20250530）39.7 28.8 26.5 24.8 20.2 19.9 18.7 18.3 17.0 14.5 13.4 10.4 01020304050纳斯达克指数道琼斯工业指数标普500深证成指恒生科技澳洲标普200英国富时100日经225台湾加权指数上证指数韩国综合指数恒生指数PE（TTM）证券代码证券代码证券简称证券简称总市值总市值GAAP净利润（亿元）净利润（亿元）净利润增

8、速净利润增速PE（倍）倍）PEG（倍）倍）（亿元）（亿元）2024A2025E2026E2025E2026E2025E2026E2025E2026EMSFT.O微软34216 881 1000 1133 13.5%13.3%34 30 2.5 2.3 NVDA.O英伟达32972 729 1008 1316 38.3%30.6%33 25 0.9 0.8 AAPL.O苹果29999 937 1078 1130 15.0%4.8%28 27 1.8 5.6 AMZN.O亚马逊21765 592 667 791 12.7%18.6%33 28 2.6 1.5 GOOGL.O谷歌-A20841 10

9、01 1173 1214 17.1%3.5%18 17 1.0 4.9 META.O脸书16280 624 657 720 5.4%9.6%25 23 4.6 2.3 TSLA.O特斯拉11159 71 57 91-19.6%60.1%196 122 2.0 综合综合167231 4835 5640 6395 16.6%13.4%30 26 1.8 2.0 注：净利润取自Bloomberg一致预期（20250530），币种为美元；其中微软/英伟达/苹果2025E分别对应2024.6.30-2025.6.30/2025.1.26-2026.1.26/2024.9.28-2025.9.28美国主要

10、科技龙头估值（美国主要科技龙头估值（20250530）证券代码证券代码 证券简称证券简称总市值总市值Non-GAAP净利润（亿元）净利润（亿元）净利润增速净利润增速PE（倍）倍）PEG（倍）倍）（亿元）（亿元）2024A2025E2026E2025E2026E2025E2026E2025E2026E0700.HK 腾讯控股41958 2227 2514 2783 12.9%10.7%17 15 1.3 1.4 BABA.N 阿里巴巴19516 1581 1713 1892 8.3%10.4%11 10 1.4 1.0 1810.HK小米集团-W12115 272 404 521 48.3%29

11、.1%30 23 0.6 0.8 PDD.O拼多多9844 1223 985 1303-19.5%32.3%10 8 0.2 3690.HK美团-W7727 438 439 563 0.2%28.4%18 14 71.4 0.5 NTES.O网易5543 335 388 409 15.9%5.4%14 14 0.9 2.5 JD.O京东集团3711 478 457 523-4.4%14.4%8 7 0.5 1024.HK快手-W2096 177 202 237 13.9%17.5%10 9 0.7 0.5 9888.HK百度集团-SW2058 270 238 261-11.8%9.5%9 8

12、0.8 综合综合104567 7001 7340 8493 4.8%15.7%14 12 2.9 0.8 注：净利润取自Bloomberg一致预期（20250530），币种为人民币；其中阿里巴巴2024A对应2024.3.31-2025.3.316投资建议01资料来源：HTI板块观点：下半年继续看好恒生科技。今年以来中国资产重估叙事发酵，港股继续震荡上行，不过估值仍然不算高。展望未来，短期中美贸易谈判仍有较大不确定性，或将对港股风险偏好和盈利预期形成扰动，不过国内政策发力驱动基本面修复，叠加港股资金面持续改善，港股下半年或将向上。结构上，港股中云集诸多稀缺优质资产的恒生科技板块更加值得重视。建

13、议关注两条主线：（1 1）AIAI催化+基本面趋势向上，关注阿里巴巴-WW、快手-WW。阿里巴巴-WW：4Q25FY淘天CMR同比增12%，云智能集团收入加速趋势有望延续；考虑到淘天业务基数效应&全站推渗透率提升，同时云业务受益于AI等相关产品助推，展望1-2Q26FY，我们认为，公司基本面向上趋势有望延续。快手-WW：我们认为，受益于抖音策略调整，快手电商业务格局有望阶段性改善；可灵2.0版本更新迭代为全维度提升的生产力工具，有较大应用空间。（2 2）虽短期投入改善平台生态，但商业模式优，中长期壁垒稳固，且出海/外卖积极拓展第二成长曲线，关注美团-WW、拼多多、京东集团-SWSW。美团-WW

14、：短期积极投入夯实份额，长期壁垒稳固（外卖兼具双边网络效应和锁定效应，达到临界规模后形成正循环，竞争优势将长期保持）；Keeta打造第二增长曲线（自23年10月Keeta在利雅得上线后，在沙特阿拉伯充分展现了产品实力和技术实力；计划在未来五年内在巴西市场投入10亿美元）。拼多多：公司聚焦生态建设投入，短期盈利有所承压（1Q25Non-GAAP净利同比-47%），但长期有望夯实生态壁垒，且考虑到基数效应，预计下半年盈利有望回升；同时TEMU加速半托管及欧洲等全球市场布局，全球发展空间广阔。京东集团-SWSW：1Q25收入超预期，得益于以旧换新景气延续&用户数持续增长（1Q25季度活跃用户数同比增

15、超20%，3P商家成交用户数和订单量延续双位数增长）；618期间，外卖日单量破2500万，我们认为，外卖作为高频业务，有望带动其零售业务加速发展。风险提示：行业竞争加剧；AIAI进展不及预期；稳增长政策落地进度不及预期；国际贸易环境超预期恶化。7/70202电商：由“低价竞争”走向“差异化竞争”8电商：由“低价竞争”走向“差异化竞争”02 行业由“低价竞争”走向差异化竞争。根据36Kr，2024年618大促后淘天集团弱化“五星价格力”搜索权重分配体系，改回GMV分配逻辑；7月抖音集团宣布不再把“价格力”放在首位，将GMV作为最高经营目标优先级；11月，拼多多允许商家在大促期间自行选择终止“自动

16、跟价”功能。我们认为，随着电商行业增速逐步放缓，行业将由低价同质化竞争走向差异化竞争。资料来源：电商情报局微信公众号，36Kr，央视网，HTI关于关于“反内卷反内卷”的监管的监管时间时间事件事件2024年11月市场监管总局约谈6家电商平台，通报其“仅退款”规则挤压商家生存空间、助长低质低价竞争风气等问题，并从优化协议规则、提升规则透明度、保障商家自主经营权等方面提出整改要求。2025年两会期间国家市场监督管理总局负责人公开表示，针对平台滥用“仅退款”规则，造成商户货款两空的突出问题，将督促平台明确规则的适用范围和具体情形，保障商户正当权益。平台取消平台取消“仅退款仅退款”政策政策时间事件202

17、4年7月淘宝天猫宣布将给予商家售后自主权，对评分4.8以上的店铺减少或取消售后干预。2024年12月快手电商直接宣布终止“退款不退货”服务。2025年1月抖音推出的九条电商新规中明确，当用户申请仅退款时，抖音主动介入维护商家合法权益，还调整算法，尽量减少用户在下单后、收货前频繁刷到同款商品的情况。2025年1月淘宝天猫宣布将建立电商行业内首个账号诚信体系，针对异常仅退款、退货掉包、虚假退货、网图/P图等行为，商家可通过投诉反馈将其录入账号诚信体系，平台视情况对其驳回售后、单店或平台限购等；对于职业羊毛党，淘宝天猫还将配合相关部门，移送司法机关。902 收入端：实物商品网上零售额增速逐年放缓，但

18、阿里巴巴、京东收入提速，主要受益于Take Rate提升及国补，具体来看：阿里巴巴：受益于软件服务费&全站推渗透率提升，3Q/4Q25FY CMR各同比+9%/12%。京东集团：国补&以旧换新带动快消、3P等交叉销售，3Q24以来收入提速。拼多多：2Q24以来让利商家，在线营销服务收入增速有所放缓，1Q25在线营销增速同比增15%（增速环比4Q25企稳）。资料来源：Wind，国家统计局，各公司1Q2021-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI注：电商板块包含公司标的为京东、阿里巴巴、拼多多电商、社零总额、实物商品网上零售额增速（单季度，电商、社零总额、实物商品网上零售额增速（单季度，%）阿里巴巴阿里

19、巴巴CMR收入及同比增速收入及同比增速京东零售收入及同比增速京东零售收入及同比增速拼多多收入及增速拼多多收入及增速-4.3 3.5-0.9 3.7 6.6 0.0 4.8 14.0 16.2 34.5 30.1 12.7 3.0 8.8 6.3 6.5 10.8 14.0 1.4 7.6 1.7 3.6 7.0 1.2 5.1 13.4 15.8-20020401Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25商品收入服务收入总收入10.0 2.7 0.5 5.0 0.6 2.5 9.4 11.8 12.1 4.2 1.6 3.7-1.4 1.4 5.4

20、8.7-50510152Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25CMR淘天总收入11-2002040601Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25电商板块收入增速（%）社零增速（%）实物商品网上零售额增速（%）50 50 39 57 56 29 24 17 15 86 72 33 6 58 66 94 86 44 24 10 0204060801001Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25在线营销服务交易佣金总收入电商：由“低价竞争”

21、走向“差异化竞争”1002 利润端：2024年拼多多、阿里巴巴、京东集团Non-GAAP净利率各同比+3.6/+0.9/-1.7pct，拼多多、阿里巴巴、京东集团1Q25 Non-GAAP净利率各同比-17.5/+1.6/+0.8pct。分部看：2024年京东零售OPM/阿里巴巴经调整EBITA利润率各同比+0.24/-1.58pct，1Q25各同比+0.76/-0.12pct。阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东Non-GAAP净利率（单季度，净利率（单季度，%）淘天经调整淘天经调整EBITA利润率、京东零售利润率、京东零售OPM（单季度，（单季度，%）淘天经调整淘天经调整EBITA

22、利润、京东零售利润、京东零售OP同比增速（单季度，同比增速（单季度，%）24.7-0.4 0.7-11.8-5.3 24.1 5.5 44.7 37.8 9.1 3.2 1.2-1.4-1.0-5.3 1.9 8.4-2002040601Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25京东零售OP淘天经调EBITA3.6 3.4 5.2 3.0 4.6 3.2 5.2 2.6 4.1 3.9 5.2 3.3 4.9 44.1 48.7 46.6 43.4 42.9 48.2 46.4 41.3 43.1 45.0 44.9 41.2 01020304050601Q22 2

23、Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25京东零售OPM淘天经调EBITA率资料来源：Wind，国家统计局，各公司1Q2023-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI3.1 3.0 4.3 2.7 3.4 5.0 5.1 3.3 4.2 13.1 19.2 17.9 18.4 11.0 16.7 15.4 18.2 12.6 26.9 29.2 24.7 28.7 35.2 35.5 27.6 27.0 17.7 0102030401Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25京东集团（%）阿里巴巴（%

24、）拼多多（%）电商：由“低价竞争”走向“差异化竞争”1102 费用端：2024年拼多多、阿里巴巴、京东集团费用率各同比-5.9/+2.5/+0.3pct，拼多多、阿里巴巴、京东集团费用率1Q25各同比+1.2/+0.3/-0.0pct。销售费用端看：2024年拼多多、阿里巴巴、京东集团销售费用率各同比-4.9/+1.9/+0.4pct，1Q25各/+2.3/-0.06pct。拼多多：费用率拼多多：费用率资料来源：Wind，国家统计局，各公司1Q2023-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI注：费用率包括营销费用、技术费用、行政及管理费用6.7 4.5 6.3 5.2 6.3 5.5 6.0 5.2

25、6.3 12.0 11.6 11.3 13.0 13.0 13.4 13.7 15.2 15.3 6.2 3.1 4.2 4.3 6.3 5.5 4.1 3.9 4.4 010201Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25产品研发费用率（%）销售营销费用率（%）行政管理费用率（%）6.3 5.8 6.1 5.6 6.5 5.9 6.3 5.8 6.6 3.3 3.8 3.2 4.3 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.9 3.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9

26、0.7 0.8 024681Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25履约费用率（%）营销费用（%）技术及内容开支（%）行政及管理费用（%）京东集团：费用率京东集团：费用率阿里巴巴：费用率阿里巴巴：费用率3.33 3.05 4.02 4.07 4.12 4.12 5.11 4.25 5.28 0.51 0.48 0.53 0.44 0.51 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.57 01234561Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25销售费用率（%）管理费用（%）研发费用（%）电商：由“低价竞争”走向“差异化竞争”1202资料来源：W

27、ind，国家统计局，各公司1Q2021-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI注：电商板块包含公司标的为京东、阿里巴巴、拼多多；更新至20250530。电商板块电商板块Non-GAAPPE（TTM）及及Non-GAAP净利增速（净利增速（%）10.4-60-40-200204060800.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.021-06 21-08 21-10 21-12 22-02 22-04 22-06 22-08 22-10 22-12 23-02 23-04 23-06 23-08 23-10 23-12 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 24-10 24-12

28、 25-02 25-04PE（TTM，倍，左轴）PE中位数：2021年以来（TTM，倍，左轴）单季度Non-GAAP净利润同比（%，右轴）电商：由“低价竞争”走向“差异化竞争”13/130303本地生活：到店格局优化，外卖&即时零售积极投入14到店：格局趋稳，受益于部门协同，美团CLC利润加速释放03 到店业务：美团核心本地商业OP自1Q24起提速，我们认为，主因到店行业竞争减弱，格局趋于稳定；公司2024年组织架构调整后，公司整合不同业务的资源，提升部门协同性。展望2Q2025及全年，我们认为，到店竞争趋缓趋势有望延续，但公司积极应对外卖竞争，2Q2025预计核心本地商业OP有所扰动，但长期

29、看有望夯实壁垒。资料来源：WIND，美团1Q2021-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI美团核心本地商业收入及增速美团核心本地商业收入及增速美团核心本地商业美团核心本地商业OP及增速及增速29.7 39.7 124.6 41.0 100.7 34.8 8.3 11.1 2.7 36.8 44.4 60.9 39.1 0204060801001201400204060801001201401601Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25核心本地商业OP（亿元，左轴）YOY（%

30、，右轴）18.9 9.2 24.6 17.4 25.5 39.2 24.5 26.8 27.4 18.5 20.2 18.9 17.8 05101520253035404501002003004005006007008001Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25核心本地商业收入（亿元，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）15外卖：竞争下积极投入应对，长期壁垒深厚03 京东外卖：根据京东黑板报微信公众号，2月11日，京东外卖正式启动“品质堂食餐饮商家”招募，5月1日前入驻商家全年免

31、佣金；3月24日，上线40天，日订单量突破100万；4月15日，日订单量超500万单；4月22日，日订单量突破1000万单；根据证券时报百家号，5月14日，京东外卖日订单量已突破2000万单。阿里巴巴：根据财联社援引科创板日报，4 月30日淘宝天猫旗下即时零售业务“小时达”正式升级为“淘宝闪购”，并在淘宝app首页Tab以“闪购”一级流量入口展示；同日饿了么开启第一波“饿补超百亿”活动。美团：我们认为，外卖是强蜂窝状规模效应的生意，且要达到盈亏平衡点的日单量要求较高，美团已沉淀较强的消费者心智与代理商资源，公司积极应对外卖竞争，2Q预计利润有所扰动，但长期壁垒稳固。资料来源：京东黑板报微信公众

32、号，财联社援引科创板日报，证券时报百家号，美团1Q2021-1Q2025各季度财报，HTI美团即时零售日单量及增速（美团即时零售日单量及增速（%）7.6 16.2 13.6 15.0 31.6 23.0 25.2 28.1 14.2 14.5 010203040020004000600080002Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q24即时配送交易笔数（百万，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）16新业务：美团加速出海，海外外卖UE更优03 KeetaKeeta打造第二增长曲线。2024年10月Keeta在利雅得上线后，公司进一步将其扩

33、展至沙特阿拉伯的所有主要城市，用户基数和订单量迅速增长，Keeta在沙特阿拉伯充分展现了产品实力和技术实力；计划在未来五年内在巴西市场投入10亿美元。参考Delivery Hero 不同区域情况，我们认为，海外市场广阔且UE优，美团当前能力在香港已有验证，看好其进一步出海发展。资料来源：美团4Q24、1Q25季度报告，Delivery Hero2024年年报，HTI集团集团20242023YOY亚洲亚洲20242023YOYMENA20242023YOYGMV48754 45275 7.7%GMV23407 25354-7.7%GMV12826 9959 28.8%收入12796 10463

34、22.3%收入4072 3729 9.2%收入3528 2701 30.6%Adj.EBITDA693 254 173.1%Adj.EBITDA385 385 0.0%Adj.EBITDA473 305 55.3%Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）1.4 0.6 Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）1.6 1.5 Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）3.7 3.1 欧洲20242023YOY美国20242023YOYINTEGRATED VERTICALS20242023YOYGMV8879 7510 18.2%GMV3642 2452 48.5%GMV2905 2224 30.6%收入1892

35、1522 24.3%收入940 651 44.3%收入2710 2126 27.5%Adj.EBITDA-77-168 Adj.EBITDA10-50 Adj.EBITDA-99-218 Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）-0.9-2.2 Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）0.3-2.0 Adj.EBITDA/GMV（%）-3.4-9.8 Delivery Hero 不同区域情况（不同区域情况（2024）17即时零售：龙头不断加码，供给创新推动近场电商快速发展03行业：根据商务部即时零售行业发展报告（2024），预计2025年即时零售规模超1万亿，2030年将超2万亿，5年CAGR15%。美团

36、：4月“美团闪购”升级为独立品牌，提升至首页一级入口，定位“30 分钟送万物”&“24 小时陪伴消费者的新一代购物平台”。根据美团官网，当前美团闪电仓数量已超过3万个，预计2027 年美团闪电仓将超过10万个（GMV 将达到2000亿元）。京东：根据财经网百家号，2024年5月京东即时零售业务全面升级推出京东秒送，整合原即时零售品牌京东小时达、京东到家；根据京东黑板报微信公众号，2月11日京东外卖正式启动“品质堂食餐饮商家”招募，3月24日，日订单量突破100万；4月15日，日订单量超500万单；4月22日，日订单量突破1000万单；根据证券时报百家号，5月14日，京东外卖日订单量已突破200

37、0万单。阿里巴巴：财联社援引科创板日报，4月淘宝天猫旗下即时零售业务“小时达”正式升级为“淘宝闪购”，并在淘宝app首页Tab以“闪购”一级流量入口展示，首日上线 50 个城市，后续5月6日推广至全国。资料来源：财联社援引科创板日报，财经网百家号，商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院即时零售行业发展报告（2024），美团官网，HTI美团闪购仓目标美团闪购仓目标即时零售规模即时零售规模即时零售规模渗透率即时零售规模渗透率687 1,179 2,154 3,251 5,043 6,500 7,800 10,030 11,750 71.6 82.7 50.9 55.1 28.9 20.0 28.6 17.1

38、 02040608010005,00010,00015,0002018201920202021202220232024E 2025E 2026E即时零售规模（亿元，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.2 5.0 6.0 024682018201920202021202220232024E即时零售规模占比社零（%）即时零售规模占比实物商品网上零售额（%）18/180404科技：开启新一轮资本投入周期19阿里巴巴：云业务收入加速，未来三年拟投入3800亿元Capex04 加大云和AIAI投入：未来三年拟投入3800亿元

39、人民币用于AI和云计算，4Q25FY 投资活动现金流资本性支出246亿元（过去四个季度分别为112/121/175/318亿元）。云智能加速趋势延续：4Q25FY阿里云智能集团总收入同比增长18%，其中AI相关产品收入连续7个季度三位数增长；经调整EBITA24亿元，经调整EBITA利润率8%。我们认为，受益于AI等相关产品助推，云智能加速趋势延续。资料来源：阿里巴巴季度财报，WIND，HTI阿里巴巴资本开支阿里巴巴资本开支云智能集团收入及增速云智能集团收入及增速云智能集团经调整云智能集团经调整EBITA利润率利润率695289112 121 175 318 246 0501001502002

40、503003501QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25投资活动现金流-资本性支出（亿元）3.892.272.573.455.927.113.117.71051015200501001502002503003501QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25云智能集团收入（亿元，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）3.7 5.1 8.4 5.6 8.8 9.0 9.9 8.0 0246810121QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY2

41、5 3QFY25 4QFY25云智能集团经调整EBITA（%）20快手：可灵AI全系统模型升级，多项评测稳居行业第一04 发展历程：24年6月快手“可灵”视频生成大模型官网正式上线，并在快影 app 开放邀测体验；7 月 24 日，可灵 AI 宣布基础模型升级，全面开放内测，并且正式上线了会员体系；后续可灵 AI 不断进行迭代升级，11月推出独立 App，25年4月快手正式发布可灵 AI、可图 AI的2.0版本。快手可灵2.02.0在文字相关性、画面质量、动态质量等维度上显著超越 SoraSora等AIAI视频模型。资料来源：可灵AI公众号，WIND，HTI可灵可灵2.0大师版操作界面大师版操

42、作界面21重点公司盈利预测及估值05资料来源：WIND，HTI注：币种为人民币；互联网企业净利润为Non-GAAP/经调整净利润；阿里巴巴财年截至3月，阿里巴巴2024年对应2025FY（2024.3.31-2025.3.31）。市值市值Non-GAAP/经调整净利润（亿元）经调整净利润（亿元）PE（倍）倍）亿元亿元RMB20242025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E9988.HK阿里巴巴-W19802 1581 1769 1910 2027 11.2 10.4 9.8 3690.HK美团-W7598 438 418 539 685 18.2 14.1 11.1 9618

43、.HK京东集团-SW3757 478 459 528 574 8.2 7.1 6.5 1024.HK快手-W2063 177 204 246 287 10.1 8.4 7.2 9690.HK途虎-W131 6.2 7.6 9.3 10.7 17.2 14.1 12.2 6100.HK同道猎聘16 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.5 7.0 6.7 6.4 重点公司盈利预测及估值（重点公司盈利预测及估值（20250602）22风险提示06 行业竞争加剧；AIAI进展不及预期；稳增长政策落地进度不及预期；国际贸易环境超预期恶化。APPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通

44、国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity r

45、esearch teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companie

46、s(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证AnalystCertification:2我，曹蕾娜，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3

47、个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,Leina Cao,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to th

48、e specific recommendations or views expressed in this researchreport;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securiti

49、es in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.我，胡佳璐，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,R

50、ebecca Hu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation

51、s or views expressed in this researchreport;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issu

52、er that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.APPENDIX 2利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures3海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment b

53、anking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to suchrelationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness a

54、nd completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).国泰海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从9618.HK获得投资银行服务报酬。Guotai Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 9618.HK.APPENDIX 2评级定义评级定义（从从2020年年

55、7月月1日开始执行日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评

56、级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美国美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommen

57、ding the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more completeinformation concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong Internat

58、ional Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the ratingalone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and othe

59、r considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its r

60、elevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,a

61、s indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.4APPENDIX 2截至截至2025年年3月月31日日截至截至2024年年12月月31日日海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市优于大市优于

62、大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市(持有)(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率92.2%7.5%0.3%91.9%7.6%0.4%投资银行客户*3.3%3.5%0.0%2.1%2.2%0.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义（直至直至2020年年6月月30日日）：买入买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对

63、基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofMa

64、rch31,2025asofDecember31,2024OutperformNeutralUnderperformOutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)(hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage92.2%7.5%0.3%91.9%7.6%0.4%IB clients*3.3%3.5%0.0%2.1%2.2%0.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution

65、 correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitio

66、ns(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market be

67、nchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks fo

68、r each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCIChina.5APPENDIX 2海通国际非评级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rat

69、ed Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation andother metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundam

70、ental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与国泰海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the

71、 Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES(601211 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research onthese same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by GTHS differs from that us

72、ed by HTI and as a result there may be adifference in the HTI and GTHS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股（Q100）指数指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对国泰海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100

73、Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage atGTHS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the GTHS A-share teams bottom-upresearch.The Q100 constituent companies are re

74、viewed quarterly.6APPENDIX 2盟浪义利盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：第一条 义利（FIN-ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考，并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。第二条 盟浪并不因收到此

75、评估数据而将收件人视为客户，收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断，盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明，本数据（如财务业绩数据等）仅代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数据进行修改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图

76、标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。第四条 如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如盟浪网站用户注册协议盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议盟浪网隐私政策等）有约定的，则按其他协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer:Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptan

77、ce with these termsbefore using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1.FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.(In short,SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information.SusallWaveshall not be responsible for any accuracy and completeness of the information

78、.The assessment result is for reference only.It is not for any investment advice for anyindividual or institution and not for basis of purchasing,selling or holding any relative financial products.We will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss of anyindividual or institution as a result of us

79、ing SusallWave FIN-ESG Data.2.SusallWave do not consider recipients as customers for receiving these data.When using the data,recipients shall make your own independent judgment accordingto your practical individual status.The contents of the data reflect the judgment of us only on the release day.W

80、e have right to update and amend the data andrelease other data that contains inconsistent contents or different conclusions without notification.Unless expressly stated,the data(e.g.,financial performance data)represents past performance only and the past performance cannot be viewed as the predict

81、ion of future return.3.The copyright of this data belongs to SusallWave,and we reserve all rights in accordance with the law.Without the prior written permission of our company,noneof individual or institution can use these data for any profitable purpose.Besides,none of individual or institution ca

82、n take actions such as amendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,information networktransmission,shooting,adding icons and instructions.If any loss of SusallWave or any third-party is cau

83、sed by those actions,users shall bear the correspondingcompensation liability.SusallWave shall not be responsible for any loss.4.If any term is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website(e.g.User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website,User Service(including

84、authentication)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed according to other agreements.If there isany difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.7APPENDIX 2重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限

85、公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Priva

86、te Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为印度交易所）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其

87、准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状

88、况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策

89、。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站?，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。8APPENDIX 2IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERFor research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issu

90、ed by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHaitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securities)for the purpose ofthe Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kon

91、g,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports on Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limi

92、ted(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securitiesand Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reportscovering listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“

93、NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPLwas acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong In

94、ternational Securities CompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but norepresentation or warran

95、ty,express or implied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report maybe received,as to their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to changewithout notic

96、e.This research report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to becomplete and this research report is not,and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to

97、 in thisresearch report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors homecurrency,a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future re

98、sults.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in thisresearch report are not tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circ

99、umstances,such as your financial situation and riskappetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluatewhether the recommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors

100、,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for anydirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.9APPENDIX 2HTISG and our affiliates,officers,directors,and employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,w

101、ill from time to time have long or short positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant client

102、s and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such othe

103、r trading decisions,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for further information on HTIs organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect

104、 to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appe

105、arances;and trading securities by a research analyst.10APPENDIX 2分发和地区通知：分发和地区通知：除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项：香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成证券及期货条例（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告

106、仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项：美国投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由HTIRL，HSIPL或HTIJKK编写。HTIRL，HSIPL，HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司，均未在美国注册，因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的美国主要机构投资者（“Major U.S.Institutio

107、nal Investor”）和机构投资者（”U.S.Institutional Investors”）。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时，HaitongInternational Securities(USA)Inc.（“HTI USA”）将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者，希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易，只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于1460 Broadway,Suite 11017,New York,NY 10036 USA，电话+1 212-351-6052。HTI USA是在美国于U.S.Securities and Exc

108、hange Commission（“SEC”）注册的经纪商，也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.（“FINRA”）的成员。HTIUSA不负责编写本研究报告，也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下，收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者，不得直接与分析师直接联系，也不得通过HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK直接进行买卖证券或相关金融工具的交易。本研究报告中出现的HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK分析师没有注册或具备FINRA的研究分析师资格，因此可能不受FINRA第2241条规定的与目标公司的交流，公开露面和分析师账户持有的交易证券等限制。投资本

109、研究报告中讨论的任何非美国证券或相关金融工具（包括ADR）可能存在一定风险。非美国发行的证券可能没有注册，或不受美国法规的约束。有关非美国证券或相关金融工具的信息可能有限制。外国公司可能不受审计和汇报的标准以及与美国境内生效相符的监管要求。本研究报告中以美元以外的其他货币计价的任何证券或相关金融工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响，可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请联系：Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.1460 Broadway,Suite 11017New York,NY 10036联系人电话

110、：+1 212-351-605211APPENDIX 2DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICESExcept as otherwise indicated below,any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTIs research shouldcontact the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or regi

111、on.Notice to Hong Kong investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),which is a licensed corporation tocarry on Type 1 regulated activity(dealing in securities)in Hong Kong.This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offe

112、r of securities or an invitationto the public within the meaning of the SFO.This research report is only to be circulated to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO.This research report hasnot been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.You should not make investment decisions solely

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