《清华五道口:2025特朗普2.0与我们的应对(二):万斯国际政治与经济政策主张解读(29页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《清华五道口:2025特朗普2.0与我们的应对(二):万斯国际政治与经济政策主张解读(29页).pdf(29页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、 报告说明!#$CIFER AI%&()*+,-./0)12345637James David Vance89:;?9AB 7Hillbilly Elegy8CDEFGHIJKLMD.NOPQRSOTUV9WXYZ%&_K abcdefghij!kl gmnopqmrstuv+rw 1.qmrqmrw%&opxyzktu|U Ink9Q 2.v+rv+rw%&x mn“”KRS9 7RS 8+tu%&opab,?-WQ z.NQRS KX https:/ Elegy:A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis”,Harper Collins Publi
2、shers20162.w!#$%&(1)4*+,-%(3*./0123,45678(6)7*+,-%39:;-%(11*./?78-%(12*DDCCw zz 7ju8“”9 AI?APP#$CIFER AI 9 AI%&s%!#$%&“-()op”9*+,tu-.AI/RS op9Y01 23?w H4-.NQRS KX7CIFER8U5-67 KX7CGFR8U5 8ABCDEFGHI J 9:;.NQRS KX7CIFER8?K.ARSOP BC+8-CIFER 8 DEF.NQRS KX7CIFER8 GHI67 KX7CGFR8J K8 LMN67 KX7CGFR8J K8 z.QB
3、z.QB.QB 7OP8QRRS9+ropSTop.NRSUVW9XqrlstuK9xR-pv.9wxgC.NRSXyQzKL|*-99+0D)638X5-./0)z-.9-iDOTUVhi?Rs-.?Xyk95.8C-./0)&,-c9.NOPQRSOTUV 639:;?9AB 7Hillbilly Elegy8z 2016,-.“”?9op,9,QY-R,9I+9Y!2.0(v63OTUV9WXJKv-63?9QX!DOTUV,U,2x9Q#Unr9aDWXOT-.kl_-.9RSs.N7.ton!.?Ig-“9!+.N(OTgXZsdu!jz63:;?9ABsEFGH()*+,DWXOT
4、+!J,Qo ZQOT#-QnOT.N(Q!Q#OT_$iS639.NOPQRSOTUV*+%&IoDKsOT“2 二全球化批判与制造业复兴 7-8_(,%)9*+7-8_(,%)9*+63_(,9,%)lhi9!-.,DRSOTUV9j/0.%)hiWX!r12IW345,-.9.DB9?o,2 1.”6Qo7?899:63-.;.%)9”wfN.7-.8Kz?AB9”6-77dCD“-.”6”8 EFB9o7GHI!JF9.7K.o 8 K.+L(oM9-.?vg_”6O_GNA?9O3 PE630.”XQ&R9Sos”6sTU9“Vx”7network effects8 NWX o9YZ
5、Z”6”6C9EYQoETUO-W_abc8o7dew?hBtu+RSjk3 63*+.,%)S.L9,zn!la.v?I9no,453-DL9o-i.9.e”sn(x9sA-#wzDjm9sro9X,jk,-.9.!“s_K._lg,Ur3idc9Lvr-.r!4 Kz_-#w.7e!89x,v9kro9()r9w-r,RSs?9ABKB9.Y-?L(l0n2,3,6-.9.s 7|87|8-.-.99 jzoc9hi0 63L,-iX9RSD X“-.o9!”3,6-iRS6#-i-.0ns9DWXz$G(,9%&-.-ig+RS9“o.”s“n.”()Ki“*O+,0-O”9./(v3,
6、6-9S90RS9D1Ewono“A2“-A349LK5-.?_I6;XRS96D789h:9,Q0n;630“o”s“”-.oolCz?9?c-Y9AILgi.9:B3,6WbY9-Z9jm.QU9!n-.Cn:Urs9$L3,6,9 639BEr9nr-F9fQGHI-gC:UT-.I?-mn.t9“Y“”S-+IrT63-oU-noAA9JV_LAC9!lWU-.!RDp.duQ-.t9#-F9!gCDl9X7Y(Z“l9sA3OM3 dK-.l9d“”63UVROsu9_Za.b-.l95-czZdeqfabgz,hHsiC7jkl8m_nRSUV8,9zvo9p63l9!-q_r9x
7、Ss.tt9OTu?92vgvw3(二)(二)Q.tOT9Q.tOT9 639TIn-#w-x“hYyzsoOTQ-(,.tX79FOTi-td|9“”WXR&d“”9n(_.tIno9t“”9.toUYe|iSw-j2_!100%-Rv_“lz9fOTIb”_UVgF-.!sn9“3a yHzK;-QX!9OTno-i:-A9RX3,6a|:U_.t7RD,/89xuF?d 6 JEFo9c!3,6-(.tOT9n no-i!“z9 mnx“-.!”Qo”“”99Us&3,6(三)(三)e,QwOPe,QwOP 63UV9OTIn-nE“lA-9rsrIQwOP“9sxR#gn.Q-.9(-
8、DZgC_UV9*e,zUYEZ9.7R9K.8-.rA6Ez.”slvRO-.9“bhH-nTHsOijklZ_-.9x35IQ-.9Yn-8,963OTK-i1PZOT“,D“z9.sH_wOPD+X1i;)RSQUVc-g.sQRrN9.NZ%)7 四技术、能源与创新政策(一)(一)IIUr$#Ur$#63zX&9“#U”7-O-.xExJIUr?7AI8-r+_+r9$#3,5,_-p#7 AI8%v-9Z0y9#n.+LgI9sOcEnxv3,5g ATM Ir8ELgDO?dQ#no9-l-A39Ms_-c AI _#9zR9-.“Ub”5I0-RS9Y9PS-.mn AI sr+
9、UVnUIW9 AI()sc9:Kg5.s#U5(二)(二)nQF7nQF7#Ur9pYlzn9!()63UVRD?-A-_B9“k”7-YGH9Kv:P9&AE EnzE9“OTxnE75 d 63SAI#9z&!9sRO+9“g59:4,5(三)(三):U9cr:U9cr Bl#Xs6#9jmOT 63DzDY9 8&mv?9x-.ogCz AI _A9$L3,55zUs#U91v-RS9sKU“Ur”7Energy Dominance8WXz-.!0v!Fv9,/6O967OT7s“67u”8gC97T0OT?c,xA,?d45,-.9RSsrz!6gd0DOT9Rr9ks-ISY AI
10、 UVU-.0UVU3,5 9 五国际关系与安全观念 7-87-89YQ9YQ 63+Q;)9(D,“D-.Ln9“”I&mYr:l“35Nt63B“?”,hcp“+,cd-nu-9i7gl!d8gCW9%HL_XY-v,tP+9L9DU-9js;4Rc963tYQ-(qIt#T$-.“_S9%-.L9&v(nDvr)4.*+X,63A-r-(9n 7y87y8“97g*+,d8“97g*+,d8 z+.N639*+X,9“-.”“U7-g*+,d 9WXIn&!9-EgW.-.9S)/00192)3C-.-4b*+,:lsv929UV3CQ*+,s3Cu956Encf9-S-.YJD9OfK
11、NU 7d_!978 Imn-.3C(8K“E”x9z9639dT9DInc:-SEgrN-.Wc-.2-n-.9S;7|87|8hO.WXhO.WX 639.K HshY+,g,z;)wOPWX-T97,8,10-9!-D5-.Us.t=9!63UVD-cYl9_nTHeSczw9?8aI,hA_+Q9”8aQRG#h 10 H+8aOIwB“BC”OTYSOsDET7aab”FG+HIJIR2)“i8 63sBghYDQ-(c9-.tY0L9hr.tK?A-?g27SLs_EM2gCjkl_CN89cks-ch-ETY.tRSOP-n.9P!sT 11 六潜在影响与风险 63BEr9-(-
12、.RSs.N79OT PD&m-.-Lg?=-mn.SD9_sXl.N9QRr789hiE9!Q#.Ns-.tab29w (1).NZ+(Q!w%QRs nUvrZlSTZUVab“Z”xo(2)(TVQw“F-Z5s?9YvW;)a+(t,(3)wOPm+rw-.&9S-YKS:l9*vtY“X#(4).tRSwPos?ffS-HOT9Svou 7631_DOTg8-Irt,gC+9.YvOT9m+rs!9“r”ETZ 12 七结语:万斯的政策逻辑 639.NOPRS+9-iWX“-.”-klztdY9-OTD9”+gC“+“90-.p$9Dz_(B9+,%)gC9.tOTLL_,o9jmO
13、Rs?9cl-Z9i?Rs“”Xow.tQcgt9JOT7e-H-:U,/8sDcd9H|g-.RSjmY9B89dsOT9n(K-.eGf9UrE&mYRSs“35I&QDUV9s-z9.lD9-!5,9 63K01g“U”s“#U”hh+ij9“-Shix,U,B9L-lLsY9$ak-SlJ#n7RD AI89!*QyInvSsEvg)-“-.”9mnsw#nx“z.tgs?N“-.”s.to-!DPEA-oQRr9OTpq99#vQRXl.NZs 9.Ns.tRSEUV-rsDW3t-zOTE9q-.Nx gC_K.#svi9H 13 -($XS$uv9s 14 参考文献 1.W,9o
14、p E.l|9;)5.NZB9!2k.s+-Qu-9*9.NZB|k+L,.s+-9op=-ik+zJ&k+pv.NZ+Wj!9k+,i.K!m+.NoLAm.s9s=yik+m.k+w.NZ;K-i.DRD9m.m.9.s+9pv-i.9_#-ls2)iS#dt+9:Zi“!4k+”.Qf.9!4z-a.P,IU&9.NoKL(Cg-J,N,-Jn9Gt9afF92&.-f.f9.Nffosdu.YioP,92Qf.9=-ik+_.Nosb E=yQ=|ik+#os9.=y=y RS0“RS0“xx RS0“(GDP)9v,-i.99Z!*,.9 6 UV-3 YY-5 _9opw.o-RS
15、0“-A-2)sP+_ 6 iWXUVzFh.(93$-+w-i.9ZFi.eNYY9fSFi.1YY9f9fSF9f P9W+Q#9+3+w pOT#OTi.C?dSFC?d(9OT#OTlv6i.9-9opIQRioppK-ZB 2018 3 23-.ZvE“301 S”Lqf ZXnQB9#G5OTQ.l_ikhfopK-Bh.ZX-9 =Tw|-Tw|-!.9#|.-GdSL_ 16 kl“?aa?a?aa?”aS0,8 kl“i9aia9”ab“?aa?a?aa?”s“T”aS9TxST9_-ix9%&abQ&,“T”|-abop-.m.E9HdC-+9K-B-Y#WTY9SN9+Q
16、Ur-.vgR-9.NUrf“.N”_fn(o9!GtD.avg-,O-iD.9“|*9RSduQx+(s9s,.N+(j!ij iij.NRS+(z+9y!j!ijvl“n”“(K.,”gC“.N+(”|.*-i-?-|*9.N+(-iQRSjmdus9.N+(9ISN =j!ijj!ij 9=yituP+(ys*9P+(R,+sGt-.Ur?9|*Q-.Ur9P+(s9sj!ij 19 P+(9#z.UQ-.Ur9-.tG9-gC?9t,p,fn_9pv99)%RE9SNLK-Ur9c9rLRSjmQij9X P+(vglQYVh9hYV9YV*|*9P+(P+(9zSN =w%+.9rw
17、%+.9r.9A9RS0“E9RS0“l2f-ab2gab*,.9“-”op.97.Qx.9“lX-.9RS0“!-XWabDW+XaabXDW9D+Xp-.(DRS2f:aX9rf7 JX 2060 K-l 4.v9r7X8=-A XK-NXD!abs9X=y B X-.XD!EK.RSFzD!9-a=|C XK.XD!E-.RSFzD!9-aD XK-h.sRSsFzD!9-“dt,9(tt,9gd_tExOR”.dE9lzi.|XD!Ox.9K.v!)-)-EOT-sYV_ 6.K._RS9SQ+Ivg|9O.9-.vEOT-,-OsYV 20 _ 6.oppv.9GtabXw=-K.n
18、g-o#a=|K-&YV92)K-_A9vJuf“pq2”t U#|U#9!|Aapq#9E#9R“lzJ&ZZEUluf“U”pv#hUV?Qn,/$“ltn9E“ltn9-.?UV(USn,/UVvf“U”aK.n,/UV(US?UVvf“pq2”i“pq2”9c!.(9#&“n-”9rf7.f7T_:&_.OT9iM9OTl|iklw=-nQ!.(9#“l-+9a=y#9t&l9a=|#F9#9 tQtcYnR.N-P+-Q2)_DUV9 21 =-=-.N.N-.pv.NUVzUno.NUV9tnK.N9c-.vgR-9&=-_“-f-.N-.9jm”-AA-
19、cJE-.oK.Q#Q#K.N9UY5“!LOTQ#hiSN9t&n=-o“m!”!A&=i.NOT“m!nQ,W&!9m:lzW&9m!_f9STlxW&.NQ.tlJE.N9=yomsp$ms+(9ZUYlhi=-R“l9Vdr=y-#FaDYZUYlhiw-Jx9y!_A9msY+hiZw=-m+p9rtf7-Qdsa=yD!zXlms+(YF-r+hiZ9.N+(X =y=y P+(P+(=ys*9.NZP+(“lkl nkl-Ekl-Z:,klQ&klpklt#RS2fy!K-9P+(K-.D,“-”9S:-QK.DUY9lhiw=-?“(K.,”t-.?9c“_-#w”K.9yX“
20、K.hw,”=yK.9#nQ 22 gnQ-.AA9-.9“(K.,”TK.W9T“lc”w*“!n+“!”YV WTO l“!n+9Dg#sg:,Di-.K.9.N#Kz,!RSn+UrD-|*-9 =|=|nn n%R$9WX!1Xljmnt-()9J nz“T(idea)”,n9_vg0“Tn#X”x9?9n;Jb“+-oi_wT-G,-LA-o=yif7Kpn-+2“9Ts 23 I-!sDKfJ);-n9#T92“|Ano9#|9#-_9n?gBl?9BlT90,T9-o!T90ih”wT92“J$o-T92“oYV,9-T92“o“lr-T“lECr-T9G,“lrsUr nl|i
21、j!ijw=-Knonx=ynElflx=|:Un%nx-i9n+|ij9XEn(lB T9n9WXYT9lh.&)=-=yOcT9YO9“XaEcOT9Y.s9gCXO9 nQ“T”$?_9WX#|*9P+(xiWX#L,-ijm =772024-203488!0ILK.-i9.K.-i9.D CDP 5%JE GDP 0“2035 q-.K.1v-.9v-x=yQ-.PBK-P92t-.Ur9K.O-.9C-.H+“K-P”9Z+EnDWXYK-(9_rt,QK-9Gt._“K-P”9K.AAUV9zfpq2TXDD 24 w 20!25!?9“!”*K.Ur9YVRSabs e*!-#-!”“!”e|Stuw=-Ur+!n+9lQP+(=yn“!”9+Q.=|58RS+9!fs#UYhS=-*!#9“n”rf7a=yn!#9hSY9WXs RD.N#z.N#Dw%OTu!2sY#!#9E!#9Y-+9$-zt-9.N!_U+9!l#-+wczT-QA#9noQ?9n!2+9nli!2Yw=-?nQa=y?Ba=|nza=?rn;Kgab%zK.-in-nz-ng9n+(https:/