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1、China EconomicMonitorIssue:2025 Q1February 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of i

2、ndependent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2Key takeawaysChinas real GDP growth rate reached 5%in 2024,which is below the 5.2%in 2023 but meets Beijings“around 5.0%”growth target.GDP grew 5.4%in Q4 2024,0.8 pe

3、rcentage points higher than that of Q3 2024,beating the markets expectations and making a decisive contribution to the successful achievement of annual growth target.The policy stimuli introduced last September led to a rebound of consumption and investment in Q4.Meanwhile,Chinas exports stayed stro

4、ng due to the front-loading of exports ahead of US president Trumps inauguration.As the trade-in programme is being expanded and front-loading is ongoing,some related indicators may still perform well in Q1 2025.With the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds to support the implementation of

5、trade-in policies for consumer goods in Q4,consumption picked up momentum,growing from 2.7%in Q3 to 3.8%.In 2024,trade-in policies collectively boosted related goods sales by more than RMB 1.3 trillion,raising the total retail sales growth rate by 1 percentage point.Fiscal funds leveraged consumptio

6、n with a multiplier effect of around 2.1 times.The manufacturing investment growth rate increased slightly to 9.2%in Q4 from 8.8%in Q3,driven by both domestic and external demand recovery.Sectors with strong export demand boosted investment growth by 1.9 percentage points.Meanwhile,sectors driven by

7、 consumer demand jointly lifted manufacturing investment growth by 2.5 percentage points.Excluding the disruption of power investment,infrastructure investment grew 5.1%,up by 3.2 percentage points from Q3.This was supported by above-seasonal growth in fiscal spending in Q4.The growth rate of road a

8、nd municipal investments rebounded with the rapid deployment of fiscal funds.Real estate investment growth rate declined by 12.4%in Q4 2024.High inventory pressure still prompted enterprises to stay cautious on investment despite an obvious improvement in sales.On the brighter side,house prices show

9、ed marginal stabilisation in Q4 and played a key role in domestic demand recovery.In the coming period,Chinas economy still faces major challenges.Indeed,the GDP deflator has remained negative for seven straight quarters,indicating insufficient domestic demand recovery.As President Trump took office

10、,persistent geopolitical tensions and the rise of trade protectionism also bring significant uncertainty to Chinese exports.In response to economic headwinds,the Chinese government is preparing new stimulus measures.In early February 2025,Premier Li Qiang proposed to“dare to break conventions and in

11、troduce tangible and perceptible policy measures”.We anticipate that the upcoming national Two Sessions will probably set an economic growth target of around 5%,while the intensity of macro policies should reach unprecedented levels.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG

12、Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guaran

13、tee.All rights reserved.3Chinas economic recovery sped up in Q4 2024Growth rate of major economic indicators,YoY,%Source:Wind,KPMG analysisNote:GDP growth,industrial production,and income per capita are in real terms,other indicators are in nominal terms.Chinas real GDP growth rate reached 5%in 2024

14、,which is below 2023s 5.2%but meets Beijings“around 5.0%”growth target.GDP grew 5.4%in Q4 2024,0.8 percentage points higher than in Q3 2024,beating the markets expectations and making a decisive contribution to the successful achievement of annual growth target.GDP growth recovery in Q4 was driven b

15、y a rebound in both domestic and external demand.The policy stimuli introduced last September also led to a rebound of consumption and investment in Q4.Meanwhile,Chinas exports stayed strong due to front-loading of exports ahead of Trumps inauguration.As the trade-in programme is being expanded and

16、front-loading is ongoing,some related indicators may still perform well in Q1 2025.2020-23 Average2023Q42024Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q4GDP4.8%5.2%5.3%4.7%4.6%5.4%Industrial production5.0%5.2%6.1%5.9%5.1%5.8%Retail sales4.1%8.3%4.7%2.6%2.7%3.8%Fixed asset investment4.4%2.7%4.5%3.6%2.6%2.7%Exports9.0%-1.2

17、%1.5%5.6%6.0%9.9%Imports6.4%0.8%1.6%2.5%2.3%-1.8%Income per capita4.8%6.7%6.2%4.2%4.1%5.7%Fiscal revenue4.6%-1.0%-2.3%-3.2%-0.8%13.1%Fiscal expenditures3.7%9.2%2.9%1.1%1.9%8.0%2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chi

18、nese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.4-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0

19、2020-032021-032022-032023-032024-03GDP deflator growth rate remained negative for 7 quartersThe Two Sessions may see the announcement of macro policies on an unprecedented scaleGDP Deflator,YoY,%Source:Wind,KPMG analysis In the coming period,Chinas economy still faces major challenges.Indeed,the GDP

20、 deflator has remained negative for seven straight quarters,indicating insufficient domestic demand recovery.As President Trump took office,persistent geopolitical tensions and the rise of trade protectionism also bring significant uncertainty to Chinas export outlook.In response to economic headwin

21、ds,the Chinese government is preparing new stimulus measures.In early February 2025,Premier Li Qiang proposed to“dare to break conventions and introduce tangible and perceptible policy measures”.We anticipate that the upcoming national Two Sessions will probably set an economic growth target of arou

22、nd 5%,while the intensity of macro policies should reach unprecedented levels.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms o

23、f the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.5The pace of economic recovery marginally slowed down in January 2025Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMISource:Wind,KPMG analys

24、is The manufacturing PMI in January 2025 dropped by 1.0 percentage points to 49.1%compared to December 2024,following a downward trend since October 2024.Meanwhile,the non-manufacturing PMI dropped by 2 percentage points compared to December 2024,falling to 50.2%.Current residents consumption,indust

25、rial production,and real estate sales have declined since the end of last year.The relatively weak consumption and production performance is expected to be buoyed by the allocation and utilisation of more fiscal funds after the Lunar New Year.202530354045505560201520162017201820192020202120222023202

26、420ManufacturingServices6 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member

27、 firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong

28、Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Consumption has been boosted by trade-in policiesGrowth rate of goods sales by category,YTD,

29、%In 2024,trade-in policies collectively boosted related goods sales by more than RMB 1.3 trillion,raising the total retail sales growth rate by 1 percentage point.Fiscal funds leveraged consumption with a multiplier effect of around 2.1 times.Funds dedicated to consumer goods trade-ins were mainly a

30、llocated in Q4,driving a significant month-over-month increase of 14.2%in total retail sales in this quarter,exceeding the usual seasonal sales increase observed in previous years.Specifically,the year-on-year growth rates of retail sales for goods supported by the trade-in policies,including househ

31、old appliances,furniture,office supplies,and automobiles,showed varying degrees of recovery in Q4.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis.Note:Goods sales data are for above-size retail enterprises-10-5051015Household appliancesSports and recreational goodsCommunication equipmentFoodTobacco and alcoholFurnitureMe

32、dicineGroceriesBeverageGasoline and other energy goodsApparelsOffice suppliesAutomotiveCosmeticsConstrction materialsJewellery2024-122024-092023-127 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(

33、SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnershi

34、p,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by

35、 guarantee.All rights reserved.Continued consumption recovery still requires further policy supportGrowth rate of per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure,4QMA,%The growth rates of residents disposable income and expenditure slowed down in 2024.In Q4,residents propensity to consume d

36、ropped to 73.2%,the second-lowest level on record for the same period.This indicates that the continued recovery of consumption in 2025 still requires further policy support.In December 2024,the Central Economic Work Conference put“vigorously boosting consumption”at the top of their 2025 agenda and

37、proposed to enhance and expand trade-in policies for consumer goods.Additionally,measures to support residents income growth are expected to be further implemented,addressing bottlenecks in the“employment-income-consumption”cycle and improving residents consumption capacity and willingness.Source:Wi

38、nd,KPMG analysisNote:Consumption propensity=per capita disposable income/per capita consumption expenditure626364656667686970717273-4-202468101214162015201620172018201920202021202220232024Per capita disposable incomePer capita consumption expenditureConsumption propensity(right axis)8 2025 KPMG Huaz

39、hen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internationa

40、l Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of

41、 the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Demand recovery supports manufacturing investment growthContributions to manufacturing investment growth by sector,%The manufacturin

42、g investment growth rate increased slightly to 9.2%in Q4 from 8.8%in Q3.Sectors with strong export demand such as general machinery and textile and apparel collectively boosted investment growth by 1.9 percentage points,up 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.Meanwhile,sectors like food p

43、rocessing,automotive,and entertainment,driven by improved consumer demand,jointly lifted manufacturing investment growth by 2.5 percentage points,up 0.7 percentage points from prior levels.In 2024,manufacturing investment growth reached 9.2%,exceeding the average annual growth rate of 6.6%from 2020

44、to 2023.Supported by export recovery and domestic equipment upgrade policies,manufacturing investment became the primary driver of fixed asset investment.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5Recreation ArticlesBeverage and TeaTextile ApparelTextile fiberFood manufacturingFood processingE

45、lectrical equipmentRailway and shipAutomobileSpecial machineryCommunicationsGeneral machineryBlack metal smeltingNon-metallic mineralPetroleum and cokingRubber tireNon-ferrous metal meltingConsumer GoodsEquipmentManufacturingRaw Material2024Q42024Q39 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China

46、 partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company

47、 limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Infrastructure investment growth dropped to 9.0%in Q4 from 11.9%in Q3.The power infrastructure investment demand reached a historical high in Q3 due to damage caused by extreme weather,creating a high comparison base for Q3 and dragging down the overall perf

48、ormance of infrastructure investments.Excluding the disruption of power investment,infrastructure investment grew 5.1%,up by 3.2 percentage points from Q3.This was mainly supported by increase in fiscal spending in Q4.In 2024,infrastructure investment grew by 9.2%,0.9 percentage points higher than 2

49、023 and the third consecutive year when the government has increased infrastructure investment to offset the property market decline.Growth rate of infrastructure investment,year-on-year(YoY),quarterly,%Source:Wind,KPMG analysisThe rapid deployment of fiscal funds is leading to a revival in narrowly

50、-defined infrastructure investment-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%201620172018201920202021202220232024InfrastructureInfrastructure(Excl.Electricity)10 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)

51、partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KP

52、MG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by gua

53、rantee.All rights reserved.The general fiscal deficit hit a record high in 2024Growth rate of general fiscal revenues,expenses,and general fiscal deficit,YoY,trillion yuan,%Due to weak domestic demand and property markets,both government tax and land sale revenue fell short of the initial budget tar

54、gets for 2024.The general revenue decreased by 2.0%in 2024,marking the second-lowest revenue in history.To ensure a robust fiscal expansion,the government actively raised non-tax revenue during the year.The general fiscal deficit reach 10.4 trillion yuan with a 2.7%expenditure growth rate,roughly in

55、 line with the compound annual growth rate of 2.8%from 2020 to 2023.Specifically,fiscal spending on infrastructure,social security and employment,science and technology,and consumption exceeded the initial budget targets.We believe these areas will remain a key focus of the governments 2025 fiscal p

56、olicy.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis10.4-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024General fiscal deficitGeneral Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate(Right Axis)General Fiscal Expenditure Growth Rate(Right Axis)11 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic o

57、f China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English

58、company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisatio

59、n of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Real estate investment remained subdued under inventory pressureProperty starts and new home sales,YoY,three-month moving average,%Driven by a series of policie

60、s in September aiming to stimulate property demand,housing sales growth rate rose from-12.7%in Q3 to 0.3%in Q4.Meanwhile,the growth rate of property investment fell to-12.4%,from-10.1%in Q3.The divergence between sales and investment is primarily due to high inventory pressure and tight liquidity.Ad

61、ditionally,restrictions on limited land supply may further drag down property investment performance over the coming period.In 2024,the growth rate of real estate investment stood at-10.6%,continuing on the downward trend observed since 2022 and remained the largest drag factor on fixed asset invest

62、ment.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-60-40-2002040602012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Property salesProperty starts12 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)par

63、tnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG

64、Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guaran

65、tee.All rights reserved.House prices showed marginal stabilisation in Q4Housing price index(HPI)of new and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities,MoM,%On the backdrop of weak investment performance there was a marginal recovery in new and second-hand residential properties prices in

66、 Q4 after the introduction of new policies in September.Notably,the month-over-month growth rate of the HPI for second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities turned positive for the first time since June 2023,reaching 0.4%,and remained positive in November and December,reflecting an improv

67、ement in residents expectations regarding housing prices.The stabilisation of asset prices,led by the real estate sector,has become an important driver behind the rebound in consumer spending and residents housing demand in Q4.Looking ahead,maintaining stable housing prices will still be the key for

68、 demand recovery in 2025.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024New commercial housingSecond hand housing13 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Ma

69、inland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic

70、 of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private Englis

71、h company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Core inflation has showed an upward trendChina Consumer Price Index(CPI)and Producer Price Index(PPI),YoY,%Inflation remained relatively low in 2024,with the CPI only increasing by 0.2%YoY,the same as in 2023.In December,the CPI rose by 0.1%YoY,0.1

72、percentage points lower than November,mainly due to an unusual decline in food prices.However,with the stabilisation and improvement of domestic demand,core CPI growth rebounded for three consecutive months,reaching 0.4%YoY in December.PPI fell by 2.3%YoY in December 2024,marking the 27th consecutiv

73、e month of negative growth.The supply-demand imbalance in certain industries,along with low real estate investment,continued to constrain the recovery of industrial demand and prices.However the PPI is expected to follow an upward trajectory in 2025 thanks to continued policy support.Source:Wind,KPM

74、G analysis-10-50510152015201620172018201920202021202220232024CPICore CPIPPI14 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms o

75、f the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Ma

76、inland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Government bond issuances continued to s

77、upport social financeGrowth of total social financing(TSF)by sector,RMB trillionSource:Wind,KPMG analysis In Q4 2024,as special refinancing bonds used to replace local governments debt were issued at an accelerated pace,net government bond financing totaled RMB 4.1 trillion,accounting for more than

78、62%of total social financing,a YoY increase of RMB 2.9 trillion.In Q4,bank loans issued to the real economy increased by RMB 1.7 trillion,a YoY decrease of RMB 1.0 trillion.New bank loans to enterprises decreased significantly by RMB 1.4 trillion YoY.On one hand,the slow recovery of enterprises prof

79、itability has constrained their willingness to expand capital expenditure.On the other hand,the concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds has led some financing platforms to repay their loans in advance.-10123456782022 Q42023 Q42024 Q4OthersOff-balance sheetfinancingStocksCorporate bondsGov

80、ernment bondsBank loansTotal15 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent m

81、ember firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a

82、Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The monetary policy loosens moderatelyRequired reserve ratio(RRR)and Loan Prime Rate(LP

83、R),%Source:Wind,KPMG analysis In 2024,the central bank cumulatively cut the RRR and interest rate by 100 and 30 basis points respectively,and led the 1-year and 5-year LPR to shrink by 35 and 60 basis points respectively,marking the most significant shifts in recent years.According to the Central Ec

84、onomic Work Conference,the central bank will adopt a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025,signaling a shift from the prudent policy orientation in the past 14 years,which indicates certain room for further RRR and interest rate cuts.Additionally,the central bank will gradually normalise its use

85、of tools such as the net purchase of government bonds and buyout reverse repurchases,to provide liquidity in coordination with government bond issuances.678910111213143.03.54.04.55.05.56.02019-092020-062021-032021-122022-092023-062024-032024-121-year LPRAbove-5-year LPRRequired reserve ratio(right a

86、xis)16 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated w

87、ith KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnershi

88、p,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Traders are rushing to export ahead of rising global trade protectionismGrowth rate of Chinas exports to major

89、trading partners in 2024,YoY,%Chinas foreign trade enterprises are rushing to export ahead of potential escalation in global trade protectionism.Exports to the United States rose by 10.5%YoY in Q4 2024,up 5.5 percentage points from Q3.However,influenced by shifts in China-U.S.trade,Hong Kongs role a

90、s a trade intermediary has weakened,resulting in a 3.0%YoY decrease in mainland Chinas exports to Hong Kong in Q4.Chinas economic and trade cooperation with Belt and Road economies is strengthening,with the share of imports and exports to these economies exceeding 50%in 2024 for the first time.In 20

91、24,Chinas exports to the GCC,central Asia,and Africa increased by 16.9%,4.5%,and 3.5%YoY respectively.Source:Wind,KPMG analysisNote:The Golf Cooperation Council(GCC)economies include the United Arab Emirates,Saudi Arabia,Oman,Kuwait,Qatar,and Bahrain;The Central Asia economies include Kazakhstan,Kyr

92、gyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.16.9 13.0 12.0 6.2 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.0-1.8-3.5-50510152017 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)pa

93、rtnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited lia

94、bility company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.High-tech pr

95、oducts accelerate their overseas expansionContributions to export growth by category in 2024,percentage points Chinas export commodity structure has been further optimised,with more high-tech products accelerating their overseas expansion.The growth rate of high-tech product exports rose to 4.8%in 2

96、024,representing 20.9%of total exports.With the booming development of the global artificial intelligence industry and the continuous recovery of the consumer electronics market,integrated circuits,automatic data processing equipment,and household appliances had a strong driving effect on exports in

97、 2024.In addition,thanks to the recovery of global trade and the strong demand for transportation in the international shipping market,exports of ships and containers saw significant growth.Source:The General Administration of Customs,KPMG analysis0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.10

98、.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8IntegratedcircuitAutomaticdataprocessingShipAutoHouseholdapplianceContainerTextilePlasticproductClothingOil18 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnersh

99、ip,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Adviso

100、ry(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.Al

101、l rights reserved.The foreign investment structure continued to shiftChinas foreign direct investment(FDI)and outbound direct investment(ODI),RMB billion FDI into China fell by 27.1%YoY in 2024,partly influenced by rising international uncertainties and instability and a slower-than-expected recover

102、y of Chinas economy,but more related to continuous shifts in the FDI structure.In 2024,FDI in high-tech manufacturing and services accounted for 11.7%and 70.7%of total FDI,up 0.6 and 2.0 percentage points from 2023,respectively.The light-asset nature of the service sector may have had a certain impa

103、ct on the overall scale and growth of foreign investment.Nevertheless,the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises still grew by 9.9%YoY in 2024.ODI from China rose by 11.7%YoY in 2024,10.6%as Chinese enterprises continue to go global.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis02004006008001,0001,2001

104、,400201620172018201920202021202220232024FDIODI19 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisatio

105、n of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partn

106、ership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The RMB exchange rate is under temporary pressureUSD index and RMB/US

107、D exchange rate Driven by the anticipation of the”Trump 2.0”policy,the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly to 108.48 in Q4,putting pressure on the RMB exchange rate.The RMB depreciated by more than 4%against the USD in Q4.Looking ahead to 2025,the RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain bidirection

108、al fluctuations with a slight downward trend.External uncertainties will further intensify,including the Federal Reserves policies,U.S.tariffs on China,and geopolitical risks.However,Chinas more proactive counter-cyclical macro-control policies could further consolidate the positive momentum of econ

109、omic recovery,providing a solid foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis5.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.680901001101202018201920202021202220232024USD index(March 1973=100)RMB/USD exchange rate(right axis)20 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China part

110、nership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limi

111、ted by guarantee.All rights reserved.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of indepen

112、dent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Hong Kong maintained steady economic progressHong Kongs real GDP growth rate,YoY,%Source:Wind,KPMG analysis With the recovery of visitor numbers,exports,and capital investm

113、ent,Hong Kong SARs GDP grew moderately by 2.5%YoY in 2024.In Q4,the growth rate of GDP reached 2.4%YoY,up 0.5 percentage points from Q3.Looking ahead,Hong Kongs economy may face external challenges due to U.S.trade protectionism and high global interest rates.However,with the support of Chinese Main

114、land economic improvement and the central governments pro-Hong Kong measures,combined with a series of initiatives taken by the SAR government to promote economic growth,Hong Kongs economy is expected to grow steadily in 2025.-10-8-6-4-202468102006200820102012201420162018202020222024Contact usKPMG C

115、hina Research Center:Yuan Zeng,Yuka Ding,Carrie Zhou Jacky ZouSenior PartnerNorthern Region and KPMG LLP+86(10)8508 Tracy YangSenior PartnerEastern&Western Region+86(21)2212 Ivan LiSenior PartnerSouthern Region+86(755)2547 Ivy CheungSenior PartnerHong Kong+852 2978 Michael JiangHead of Clients and M

116、arketsKPMG China+86(10)8508 Gary CaiHead of Macroeconomic Research Institute+86(21)2212 21 2024 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are m

117、ember firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any partic

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119、ional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KP

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