CAS 非传统精算工作和Gen AI.pdf

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1、SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Non-traditional actuarial work and Gen AIFrank Chang,President,Casualty Actuarial SocietySINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Non-traditional actuarial workSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Risk-Related Real-World P

2、roblems How much insurance should we buy?Should we self-insure or use a captive insurance company?Should we buy an insurance company?Whats the cost of flying balloons,self-driving cars,damage to ride-sharing vehicles?SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024April 2021March 2021February 20

3、21January 2021Forecast Date4,7925,5626,0887,6291/7/20214,7276,0216,0177,5891/14/20215,4205,3515,8907,2201/21/20216,0275,4315,8206,6501/29/20216,1916,5656,9844,1512/4/20217,0686,2726,9523,8262/12/20217,3486,4086,6423,7862/19/20217,3516,7415,7463,7862/25/20216,9778,3583,8733,8033/4/20217,2208,2353,952

4、3,8283/12/20217,5788,0853,9853,8293/18/20217,4117,8154,0023,8293/25/20217,1707,3323,9983,8294/1/20217,5196,8873,9983,8294/8/20217,0886,8923,9983,8294/15/20216,9956,8893,9983,8294/22/20216,1656,8893,9983,8294/29/2021Risk-Related Real-World ProblemsExample:Phone Sales ForecastSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFE

5、RENCE 202426-29 August 2024April 2021March 2021February 2021January 2021Forecast Date4,7925,5626,0887,6291/7/20214,7276,0216,0177,5891/14/20215,4205,3515,8907,2201/21/20216,0275,4315,8206,6501/29/20216,1916,5656,9844,1512/4/20217,0686,2726,9523,8262/12/20217,3486,4086,6423,7862/19/20217,3516,7415,74

6、63,7862/25/20216,9778,3583,8733,8033/4/20217,2208,2353,9523,8283/12/20217,5788,0853,9853,8293/18/20217,4117,8154,0023,8293/25/20217,1707,3323,9983,8294/1/20217,5196,8873,9983,8294/8/20217,0886,8923,9983,8294/15/20216,9956,8893,9983,8294/22/20216,1656,8893,9983,8294/29/2021Planned sales do not seem t