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1、Inequality of Opportunity in Asia and the PacificBirth RegistrationSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY PAPERS#2024-01The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)serves as the United Nations regional hub promoting co

2、operation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 Member States and 9 associate members,ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving

3、economic,social and environmental dynamics of the region.The Commissions strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity,financial cooperation and market integration.E

4、SCAPs research and analysis coupled with its policy advisory services,capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.Copyright United Nations,2024All rights reservedPrinted in ThailandST/ESCAP/3123Disclaimer The vie

5、ws expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the United Nations or other international agencies.The publication has been issued without formal editing.Reproduction and dissemination of material in this publication for educational

6、or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder,provided that the source is fully acknowledged.For further information on this publication,please contact:Social Development Division Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Uni

7、ted Nations Building Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200,Thailand Email:escap-sddun.org Website:www.unescap.orgInequality of Opportunity in Asia and the PacificBirth RegistrationAcknowledgementsThe paper was prepared under the leadership of Katinka Weinberger,Chief,Sustainable Socioeconomic Transfo

8、rmation Section,Social Development Division,and guidance of Selsah Pasali,Social Affairs Officer.Orlando Roman led the drafting of this paper.Research assistance and document support was provided by Weixun Hu,Zilu Zhou and Pornnipa Srivipapattana.The paper benefitted from review and valuable inputs

9、provided by Petra Nahmias and Tanja B.Sejersen from ESCAP Statistics Division.The graphic design was done by Daniel Feary.2Table of contentsAcknowledgements 2About the Inequality of Opportunity papers 51.Introduction and scope 62.Identifying the circumstances associated with birth registration 103.P

10、olicies to bolster birth registration in Asia and the Pacific 20Annex 1:Methodology for identifying gaps in access to barriers and opportunities 22References 263List of boxes2.4 Where are the differences in birth registration highest?15List of figuresFigure 1 Classification and regression tree(CART)

11、for birth registration completeness rate inPakistan,where poorer(bottom 40)children with two or more siblings are furthest behindgroup,2017 11Figure 2 Classification and regression tree(CART)for birth registration completeness in LaoPeoplesDemocratic Republic,where poorer(bottom 40)boys whose mother

12、 has lowereducation and with one or more siblings are the furthest behind groups,2017 12Figure 3 National differences in birth registration completeness rates in Asia and the Pacific,latestyear 13Figure 4 Birth registration completeness rates,and difference between the furthest behind andthefurthest

13、 ahead groups in birth registration,latest year 14Figure 5 Inequality in birth registration completeness rates(D-Index),latest year 16Figure 6 Inequality in birth registration completeness rates(D-Index)and average birth registrationcompleteness rates,latest year 16Figure 7 Gaps in birth registratio

14、n completeness,change over time 19List of tablesTable 1 The shared circumstances of the furthest behind children under 5,latest year 18Table A1 List of countries and survey years 22Table A2 Selected Indicators and Factors 254About the Inequality of Opportunity papersi All policy papers follow the sa

15、me methodology using the latest publicly available DHS and MICS data,except for decent work,where slight modifications are due to the use of a different dataset.ii Time for Equality:The Role of Social Protection in Reducing Inequalities in Asia and the Pacific(UN ESCAP)(2015).Available at:https:/www

16、.unescap.org/sites/default/files/SDD%20Time%20for%20Equality%20report_final.pdfThe ESCAP Inequality of Opportunity papers place people in vulnerable situations at the heart of sustainable and inclusive development.They do so by identifying areas where inequality jeopardizes a persons prospects,e.g.:

17、education;womens access to sexual and reproductive health care;childrens nutrition;decent work;basic water and sanitation;access to clean energy;financial inclusion;pandemic preparedness;and violence against women.Each of these opportunities is covered by specific commitments outlined in the 2030 Ag

18、enda for Sustainable Development and addressed in separate thematic reports covering 30 countries throughout Asia and the Pacific.i ESCAP first discussed inequality of opportunity in its 2015 report Time for Equality,ii establishing the distinction between inequality of outcome and inequality of opp

19、ortunity.While the former depicts the consequences of unequally distributed income and wealth,the latter is concerned with access to key services necessary to realize ones human rights and fundamental freedoms.The Inequality of Opportunity papers apply a novel approach to analyzing household surveys

20、 with the aim of identifying the groups of individuals with the lowest access to the above-referenced opportunities.These groups are defined by common circumstances over which the individual has no direct control at the time of measurement of the key outcome,such as their wealth,place of residence a

21、nd education level,amongst others,unlikely to change swiftly.In addition to identifying the furthest behind,the Inequality of Opportunity papers also explore the gaps between groups in accessing these key opportunities,as well as the extent to which these have narrowed or widened over time.They also

22、 review overall inequality trends in these opportunities.Ultimately,these findings are of direct use for generating discussion on transformations needed to reach the“furthest behind first”as pledged in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.5 51.Introduction and scopeBirth registration is a cru

23、cial element of civil registration and vital statistics(CRVS)systems,playing a pivotal role in the global commitment to“leave no one behind”.This foundational act not only establishes a persons identity through an official and permanent record of the existence of an individual and the recognition of

24、 that individual as a person before the law but also affirms their family relationships,promoting,protecting,and supporting their access to a wide array of social,political,and economic rights and services throughout their lives.The absence of birth registration can render individuals stateless and

25、invisible to their governments,leading to exclusion from essential services,restricted societal participation,and increased vulnerability to violence,exploitation and abuse.Defined as“the continuous,permanent,compulsory and universal recording of the occurrence and characteristics of vital events pe

26、rtaining to the population,as provided through decree or regulation in accordance with the legal requirements in each country”,CRVS systems are essential for both individuals and societies.1 Birth registration ensures a legal identity,as enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,protect

27、ing rights to property,inheritance,and legal protection,and facilitating access to education,healthcare,and social services.2 Legal identity is also crucial for taxation and domestic resource mobilization.For governments and policymakers,these systems enhance governance transparency and accountabili

28、ty,enabling more effective policymaking and service delivery.3 Birth registration is vital across a persons lifespan.For children,it is an important step for their protection against child marriage and unlawful adoption but must be complemented by the enforcement of their right to be treated as a ch

29、ild in respective juridical system.It also supports their right for education.4 For the working-age individuals,it enables access to formal employment and social protection,essential services,and political rights and ownership of assets,such as land.For the elderly,it is crucial for verifying age an

30、d accessing pensions and benefits.5Member States in Asia and the Pacific proclaimed the period of 2015-2024 as the Asian and Pacific CRVS Decade through the Ministerial Declaration to“Get everyone in the picture”in Asia and the Pacific following the first Ministerial Conference on CRVS in November 2

31、014.Their aim was and still is to realize their shared vision of universal and responsive CRVS systems in the region that leave no one behind.They also endorsed the“Regional Action Framework on civil registration and vital statistics in Asia and the Pacific”and committed to its implementation throug

32、h comprehensive,integrated and concerted efforts to achieve the shared vision which includes three goals and 15 targets.6 In 2018,member States adopted the ESCAP Resolution 74/8 entitled“Accelerating the implementation of the Regional Action Framework on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in As

33、ia and the Pacific”,which recognized the progress made since 2014 along with the importance of CRVS in advancing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development but noted that stronger coordination,monitoring and knowledge-sharing was needed to achieve the goals of the CRVS Decade.In 2021,the second Min

34、isterial Conference on CRVS convened in the context of the coronavirus disease(COVID-19)pandemic adopting the Ministerial Declaration on“Building a more Resilient Future with Inclusive Civil Registration and Vital Statistics”which emphasized the importance of strengthening CRVS to support resilience

35、 from disasters and ensure inclusive recovery from crises.The Declaration then called for identification and assessment of inequalities related to CRVS and removing all barriers to CRVS especially for people in vulnerable situations including women and children,internally displaced persons,domestic

36、workers,foundlings and persons without documentation.In the following year,member States adopted the ESCAP Resolution 78/4 endorsing the Ministerial Declaration and requested ESCAP to continue to support countries in the region with the implementation of the regional action framework and convene the

37、 third Ministerial Conference in2025.6However,in 2019,64 million children under 5 years of age were unregistered in Asia and the Pacific.7 Fifty million resided in South and South-West Asia,constituting 78 per cent of all unregistered children under 5 in the region.8 Moreover,at least 16 countries r

38、eported that less than 90 per cent of their under-5 population was registered,with countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan registering less than half.9 Such gaps exacerbate systemic inequalitiesevidenced by birth registration completeness in the wealthiest quintile being double those in the poorest.

39、10 Despite efforts to strengthen CRVS systems over the past years,millions of children under 5 are projected to remain unregistered by 2030,underscoring the need for continued focus and action to leaving no one behind by improving birth registration and CRVS systems in general.11 1.1 Birth registrat

40、ion and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable DevelopmentBirth registration helps ensure that every individual,regardless of their birthplace or circumstances,is acknowledged by their government.This is fostered through Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)16,where Member States committed to“provide legal ide

41、ntity for all,including birth registration by 2030”(Target 16.9).Focusing on birth registration is vital for realizing various rights and services,and is integral to achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.Birth registration is key for accessing social protection and financial services

42、 and establish ownership of assets(i.e.,land or house)(SDG 1),thus contributing to poverty reduction efforts.12 It also supports access to national identity cards,passports,free healthcare if available,and immunizations(SDG 3).For instance,18 countries in Asia and the Pacific require birth certifica

43、tion for vaccination and immunization,while over 34 countries require birth certificates for school enrollment and to obtain national identity card or passport.13 Further,birth registration plays a significant role in reducing statelessness and ensuring visibility before the law,issues that dispropo

44、rtionately affect marginalized communities and exacerbate inequalities(SDG 10).14 Furthermore,high-quality and up-to-date data on birth registration are essential for monitoring progress and achieving the SDGs by facilitating targeted interventions and the efficient allocation of resources(SDG 17).1

45、5 1.2 Overcoming the barriers limiting birth registration Various factors can affect the completeness of birth registration and CRVS systems,which can be categorized into supply-side and demand-side constraints.On one hand,supply-side constraints are issues originating from service providers and gov

46、ernment institutions.These include inadequate legal frameworks for birth registration,16 limited registration facilities,17 complex and lengthy registration procedures,18 poor coordination among CRVS stakeholders,19 and lack of public incentives for birth registration.20 Such incentives could be bot

47、h financial and non-financial including the need for documentation to access services such as education and health.On the other hand,demand-side constraints arise from potential registrants and their families.These are often due to limited public awareness of birth registrations importance,21 cultur

48、al stigma,22 absence of services in minority languages,direct or indirect costs associated with birth registration,or simply a lack of compelling reasons to register children under 5.In India,factors such as the mothers lack of formal education,limited exposure to media,belonging to the poorest weal

49、th quintiles,or identification with marginalized classes or as Muslims are linked to lower birth registration completeness rates.23 In the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,birth registration among children under 5 is influenced by ethno-geographic factors,such as“In 2019,64 million children under 5 y

50、ears of age were unregistered in Asia and the Pacific.”7 1.IntroductIon and scopelocation of residence and their mothers minority identity.24 Some parents may also deliberately avoid registration for various reasons.For example,being unregistered can act as a shield against state scrutiny,25 or conc

51、ealment if children are out of school and/or involved in illegal work.26 In reality,demand-side and supply-side factors interact in unique ways in different contexts and constrain the completeness of birth registration.For example,in Indonesia,significant barriers such as the cost of registration,th

52、e distance to registration centers and lack of awareness hindered birth registration completeness of children under 5.27 Even though birth registration has become free in Indonesia,indirect costs still remain along with awareness problems particularly among households in vulnerable situations,leadin

53、g to about 60 per cent of children not having their birth registered by their first birthday.28 Still,many countries in Asia and the Pacific have made significant progress in improving birth registration and CRVS systems.The number of children under 5 years of age whose birth was never registered de

54、creased by more than half from 2012 to 2019 which is partly thanks to the action taken by member States in achieving the three goals and 15 targets of the Regional Action Framework on CRVS.For example,the Fijian government introduced the“Parenthood Payment Assistance Payment Programmeiii”in 2018.29

55、This initiative offered financial incentives to encourage parents to register births promptly.Preliminary results indicate that this policy led to an increase in birth registration among children born within one year after the introduction of this policy compared with children born within a year bef

56、ore.30 Similarly,Indonesia made a pioneering move in 2014 by launching an integrated mobile legal identity service.This approach harmonized the birth registration process across various CRVS institutions,leading to a more streamlined and efficient system.This approach had additional benefits,as it a

57、lso provided consistent treatment for both Muslim and non-Muslim populations during registration.31 Countries have also been investing in increasing the resilience of their CRVS iii Due to budgetary constraints,the programme has recently been discontinued.systems in the face of natural disasters(i.e

58、.,Vanuatu)or COVID-19 pandemic(i.e.,Malaysia)and eliminating statelessness(i.e.,Kyrgyzstan)in the face of political change.32 Overall,CRVS issues are increasingly being addressed in a coordinated and multisectoral manner in alignment with the commitments and principles of the Regional Action Framewo

59、rk on CRVS in Asia and the Pacific.1.3 The scope of this paperThis paper investigates the common characteristics and conditions influencing birth registration completeness in Asia and the Pacific,focusing specifically on children under 5 years of age.This outcome is directly linked with SDG 16,indic

60、ator 16.9.1,which measures the“proportion of children under 5 years of age whose births have been registered with a civil authority,by age”.Whether a childs birth is registered with the national authorities is based on a positive response from either their mother,primary caretaker,or the household h

61、ead,to either of the questions in nationally representative household surveys:1 “Does(name)have a birth certificate?”;and 2“Has(name)s birth been registered with the Civil Registration Authority?”The exact questions vary depending on the used survey and country(see Annex 1).This methodology provides

62、 a straightforward means of measuring birth registration in the target populations.Respondents are asked to show proof of birth certificates,as well.However,it has“Still,many countries in Asia and the Pacific have made significant progress in improving birth registration and CRVS systems.”81.Introdu

63、ctIon and scopeimportant limitations including self-reporting and survivor bias,among others.To ensure a consistent,temporal comparison across countries,the paper utilizes household data from the Demographic and Health Survey(DHS)and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey(MICS)for 27 countries in Asi

64、a and the Pacific.The analysis records a child as having their birth registered if either their mother,primary caretaker or household head gives a positive response to any of these questions in the DHS or MICS surveys(see Table A2 in Appendix).The paper employs innovative techniques in examining dif

65、ferences in birth registration completeness among children under 5 years of age,focusing on their shared socioeconomic circumstances.When analyzing micro data from MICS,the selection of variables related to these circumstances is aligned with existing empirical research elaborated in Section 1.2,enc

66、ompassing all potential determinants across survey modules.This includes data on children under 5 years of age,women aged 15-49,and household-level characteristics.For DHS countries,these variables are found in the household and household member modules.The paper does not attempt to identify causal

67、factors influencing birth registration completeness,as this would require more complex empirical methods than innovative disaggregation methodologies to address issues of endogeneity.Multivariate regression models with instrumental variables or impact evaluation methodologies for policy experiments

68、are ideally suited for causal analysis.In addition,the paper does not explore determinants such as distance to registration centers,cost of birth registration,availability of information about birth registration,awareness of the registration process,and cultural norms impacting registration likeliho

69、od due to the lack of data.The results may also be influenced by measurement errors surrounding birth registration.Ultimately the aim of this paper is to apply an innovative methodological approach,the classification and regression tree approach(CART)and the dissimilarity index(D-Index)to explore th

70、e shared circumstances of the most disadvantaged groups of children under 5 in birth registration,the“furthest behind”groups,within and across countries and over time in Asia and the Pacific.The results may inspire further empirical research at national and subnational levels.9 1.IntroductIon and sc

71、ope2.Identifying the circumstances associated with birth registrationiv It is important to note that the results presented in Figure 1 are at national level which may be influenced by different birth registration processes across different provinces of Pakistan.The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Develo

72、pment calls on Member States to provide legal identity for all,including birth registration.This section unpacks differences in birth registration completeness rates and aims to uncover the shared characteristics among children under 5 years of age most and least likely to have their birth registere

73、d with the national authorities.In doing so,the section aims to inform policy making and interventions strategies intended at improving birth registration completeness rates in Asia and the Pacific.2.1 Which children under 5 years of age are less likely to have their birth registered?This paper inve

74、stigates disparities in birth registration completeness rates among children under 5 using the classification and regression tree(CART)methodology33.Using DHS and MICS data from 27 countries between 2010-2022,an algorithm splits the sample into groups of children having their birth registered,based

75、on the following circumstances:wealth of the household where the children under 5 currently reside(belonging to the top 60 or the bottom 40 of the household wealth distribution);place of residence(urban or rural);age group of the children in months(0-11 months,12-23 months,24-35 months,36-47 months,

76、and 48-59 months);educational attainment of the mother(lower education,secondary education,or higher education);number of children under 5 years of age in the household(none(0.5),2 or more(1.5),3 or more(2.5),fewer than 2(1.5),fewer than 3(2.5);and sex of the child(male or female).In each iteration,

77、the algorithm identifies children with the highest and lowest birth registration completeness rates with the national authorities.These groups of children under 5 are exclusive and exhaustive,ensuring that each child is classified into a unique category of the tree structure.To avoid a too small sub

78、-sample size,the analysis ceases to make additional partitions if the resultant nodes would fail to contain either 9 per cent of the total sample population or an absolute value of 49 survey respondents(see Annex 1).The selection of these circumstances aligns with the suggested disaggregation of SDG

79、 16.9 and is guided by several criteria.First,the 2030 Agenda emphasizes the importance of data disaggregation by various demographic factors,including income,age,location,ethnicity,among others.In the case of SDG indicator 16.9.1,the agenda calls for disaggregation by age.Second,these factors are c

80、ommonly included in the existing empirical literature on birth registration.In addition,an ESCAP study investigating birth registration determinants in Asia and the Pacific identified these factors as highly significant.34 Finally,these variables are chosen for their largely exogenous or predetermin

81、ed nature in relation to the responses provided by the childs mother,primary caretaker,or household head at the time of the survey.To illustrate how different circumstances may interact to produce a disadvantage in birth registration completion,Pakistan and Lao Peoples Democratic Republic are select

82、ed as country case studies due to their large differences between the“furthest behind”and the“furthest ahead”children.The CART analysis first introduces Pakistan as an example.The binary regression tree for Pakistan shows that 42 per cent of children under 5 years of age have their birth registered

83、with the national authorities(Figure 1).iv Considering all circumstances included in the model,the CART algorithm finds that wealth of the household where the children under 5 currently reside contributes to the highest variation in 10disaggregating the national average:18 per cent of children livin

84、g in households from the bottom 40 per cent of the wealth distribution have their birth registration completed,compared to 61 per cent of children living in households from the top 60 per cent of the wealth distribution.No other circumstance leads to such a stark differentiation within the national

85、average.The second split within children in poorer(bottom 40)households identifies age of children with significant variation:children under 2 years of age are less likely to be registered compared to children aged 3 years or above(15 per cent vs.21 per cent,respectively).There are no further splits

86、 in this group which could mean that the remaining set of circumstances including the place of residence,number of children under 5 in the household,sex and educational attainment of mother do not explain sufficient variation.v Such differences may or may not be statistically significant,as often te

87、sted in parametric models.The CART methodology is a nonparametric methodology driven by ANOVA with an objective to minimize the sum of squared errors at each step.See Annex 1 for more information about the methodology.For more information on Pakistan,see UNICEFs summative evaluation of its“Digital B

88、irth Registration Programme”in 2017-2021 period here.Terminal node now represents over 20 per cent of children under 5 so technically it could be split if there was sufficient variation.vOn the contrary,the second split within children in richer(top 60)households refers to the educational attainment

89、 of the mother:children whose mother has secondary or higher education are better-off when compared to children whose mother has lower education(72 per cent vs.57 per cent,respectively).There are no further splits in this group.The classification and regression tree shows that in Pakistan as of 2017

90、,children living in poorer households who are less than or equal to 2 years old are the furthest behind group,i.e.,they have the lowest likelihood of having their birth registered.In this group,which comprises FIGURE 1 Classification and regression tree(CART)for birth registration completeness rate

91、in Pakistan,where poorer(bottom 40)children with two or more siblings are furthest behind group,2017Source:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS data from 2017.The LNOB tree shows birth registration completeness rate as captured by SDG 16.9.1,which measures the“proportion of children under 5 years

92、of age whose births have been registered with a civil authority,by age”.For an animation of LNOB trees,please visit ESCAP LNOB Platform at https:/lnob.unescap.org/methodology.BIRTH REGISTRATION42%BOTTOM 40(WEALTH)18%TOP 60(WEALTH)61%MOTHER HIGHER ORSECONDARY EDUCATION72%MOTHERLOWER EDUCATION57%URBAN

93、 RESIDENCE63%RURAL RESIDENCE52%AGE 1.567%AGE 1.557%AGE 2.515%AGE 2.521%Furthest aheadOther terminal nodesFurthest behind11 2.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIon24 per cent of children under 5 years of age in the country,only 15 per cent have their birth registered.In oth

94、er words,85 per cent are left behind.This stands in contrast to the furthest ahead group,richer(top 60)children whose mother has secondary or higher education,which comprises 12 per cent of children under 5 years of age in the country,and where 72 per cent have their birth registered.In other words,

95、28 per cent are left behind.Figure 2 presents the classification and regression tree for Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.The binary regression tree again starts with the national birth registration completeness rate,at 58 per cent.vi Similar to the case of Pakistan,the CART algorithm finds that weal

96、th of the household where the children under 5 currently reside contributes to the highest variation in disaggregating the national average:40 per cent of children living in households from the bottom 40 per cent of the wealth distribution have their vi This national average does not include childre

97、n whose births are recorded in family book.If they were to be categorized as birth registration completed,then this national average would increase to 73 per cent.birth registered,compared to 74 per cent of children belonging to the top 60 per cent of the wealth distribution.The second split within

98、children in poorer(bottom 40)households identifies the educational attainment of the mother as a key circumstance:children whose mother has lower education are worse-off when compared to children whose mother has secondary or higher education(38 per cent vs.54 per cent,respectively).The third split

99、within children in poorer(bottom 40)households whose mother has lower education identifies the number of children under 5 years of age in the household as a circumstance worth splitting.Those with 1 or more siblings under 5 are worse-off when compared to those with no siblings(35 per cent vs.41 per

100、cent).The final split within children in poorer(bottom 40)households whose mother has lower education and with one or more siblings under 5 is the sex of the child:boys are worse-off than girls(32 per cent vs.37 per cent,respectively).FIGURE 2 Classification and regression tree(CART)for birth regist

101、ration completeness in Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,where poorer(bottom 40)boys whose mother has lower education and with one or more siblings are the furthest behind groups,2017Source:ESCAP calculations based on latest MICS data from 2017.The LNOB trees shows birth registration completeness rate

102、 as captured by SDG 16.9.1,which measures the“proportion of children under five years of age whose births have been registered with a civil authority,by age”.For an animation of LNOB trees,please visit ESCAP LNOB Platform at https:/lnob.unescap.org/methodology.BIRTH REGISTRATION58%BOTTOM 40(WEALTH)4

103、0%TOP 60(WEALTH)74%MOTHER HIGHER ORSECONDARY EDUCATION74%MOTHER HIGHER ORSECONDARY EDUCATION54%0 OR 1 CHILD UNDER 541%MALE43%MALE32%FEMALE40%FEMALE37%2 OR MORE CHILDREN35%MOTHERLOWER EDUCATION57%MOTHERLOWER EDUCATION38%URBAN RESIDENCE85%RURAL RESIDENCE65%Furthest aheadOther terminal nodesFurthest be

104、hind122.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIonThe lower branch of this tree is much more nuanced.It shows that in Lao Peoples Democratic Republic as of 2017,boys in poorer(bottom 40)households with one or more siblings under 5 whose mother has lower education are the furthe

105、st behind group in birth registration completion.In this group,which comprises 11 per cent of children under 5 years of age in the country,only 32 per cent have their birth being registered,relative to the 58 per cent birth registration on average at the national level.In other words,68 per cent of

106、children in this group are left behind as opposed to 42 per cent being left behind at national level.The same regression and classification tree analysis is produced for all 27 countries with available data.These trees are used as the basis for the various types of data analysis presented in this st

107、udy.Using more recent and granular national data may produce more nuanced results and could improve the analysis further.The following section presents key findings from the most recent publicly available DHS and MICS surveys at the time of writing.2.2 How large are the differences across countries

108、in birth registration?In the 27 countries included in this analysis,more than 80 per cent of children under 5 on average have their birth registered(Figure 3).The classification and regression tree analysis described above facilitates a comparison of differences in birth registration completeness ra

109、tes both within and across countries.Figure3 illustrates this:the blue line on each bar represents the children under 5 with the highest birth registration completeness rate,i.e.,the furthest ahead group in each country.Conversely,the orange line represents the children under 5 with the lowest rate,

110、i.e.,the furthest behind group in each country.The actual composition of the furthest behind children FIGURE 3 National differences in birth registration completeness rates in Asia and the Pacific,latest year Source:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 2010-2022.LEGENDFurthes

111、t behindAverageFurthest aheadPapua New Guinea,2018Kiribati,2019Afghanistan,2022Bangladesh,2019Lao PDR,2017Timor-Leste,2016Tuvalu,2019Samoa,2019Indonesia,2017Fiji,2021Viet Nam,2021Bhutan,2010Mongolia,2018Thailand,2022Turkmenistan,2019Uzbekistan,2022Pakistan,2017Tajikistan,2017Tonga,2019Kyrgyzstan,201

112、8Nepal,2022Maldives,2017Myanmar,2016Cambodia,2022Philippines,2022Kazakhstan,2015Armenia,2016020406080100BIRTH REGISTRATION COMPLETION RATE(%)13 2.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIonis discussed later in this section and shown in Table1.The gray line across each bar shows

113、 the average birth registration completeness rate,by which countries are sorted.In countries like Afghanistan,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Pakistan,Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste,less than 40 per cent of children in the furthest behind group have their birth registered implying that over 60 are

114、 left behind.Notably,in Pakistan and Papua New Guinea,this figure drops below 20 per cent leaving over 80 per cent behind.The relationship between overall birth registration and gaps in birth registration between the furthest behind and the furthest ahead children is captured by using a polynomial e

115、quation(Figure 4).An inverted U-shaped pattern is expected:countries with very low or very high birth registration completeness rates tend to exhibit smaller gaps between groups of children with different circumstances.This pattern is observed across the region.However,Fiji,Indonesia,Kiribati,Lao Pe

116、oples Democratic Republic,Myanmar,Pakistan,and Samoa have larger gaps than those predicted by their average birth registration completeness rates.In contrast,countries like Armenia,Kyrgyzstan,Maldives,Mongolia,Tajikistan,Thailand,Tonga,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Viet Nam exemplify how differences a

117、re close to zero when a high percentage of children are registered.2.3 Measuring inequality in birth registration completeness within countries The first step to measuring differences in completeness of birth registration is to identify all possible groups of children under 5 and their group-specifi

118、c birth registration completeness rates.The dissimilarity index,or D-Index,FIGURE 4 Birth registration completeness rates,and difference between the furthest behind and the furthest ahead groups in birth registration,latest yearSource:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 2010

119、-2022.AfghanistanBangladeshFijiIndonesiaKiribatiLao PDRMyanmarNepalPakistanPapua New GuineaSamoaTimor-LesteTuvalu010203040506070020406080100GAPS BETWEEN THE FURTHEST BEHIND AND THE FURTHEST AHEAD GROUPS(PERCENTAGE POINTS)BIRTH REGISTRATION COMPLETION RATE(%)R=0.7609CambodiaTajikistan100KyrgyzstanTon

120、gaViet NamPhilippinesArmeniaBhutanMaldivesKazakhstanMongoliaThailandTurkmenistanUzbekistan142.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIoncompares the birth registration completeness of each of these groups of children with the national average in each country(Box 1).The D-Index

121、is used to represent overall differences in birth registration completeness rates.Similar to the Gini coefficient,a value of zero implies that births of all children under 5 are registered with no one left behind.A value of one means that only a specific group of children under 5 have their birth re

122、gistered,while all other groups of children have not.2.4 Where are the differences in birth registration highest?Inequality in birth registration is highest in countries with lower birth registration rates.For example,countries such as Afghanistan,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Pakistan,Papua New G

123、uinea,and Samoa have higher D-Indices,meaning that some groups of children with common characteristics are less likely to have their birth registered compared to the average child in the country.Countries including Armenia,Kyrgyzstan,Maldives,Mongolia,Tajikistan,Thailand,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

124、have low D-Indices(Figure 5).In other words,the average birth registration completeness rate is not very different across different groups of children under 5.In the latter group of countries,birth registration is either complete or almost complete among children under 5 years of age.When comparing

125、the D-index with the average birth registration completeness rate,inequalities in birth registration completeness tend to be higher where a lower share of children under five have their births registered(Figure 6,upper left quadrant).In contrast,countries with a higher share of children under 5 havi

126、ng their birth registered have less inequality(Figure 6,lower right quadrant).BOX 1 Calculating the Dissimilarity Index The dissimilarity index,or D-Index,measures how all different groups of children fare in terms of having their birth registered.To obtain the D-Index for each country,birth registr

127、ation is calculated using the following equation:,where is the weighted sampling proportion of group i,(sum of equals 1),is the average birth registration completeness rate in the country,and is the birth registration completeness rate of population group,and takes values from zero to 1.There are“n”

128、number of groups defined by using the interactions of circumstances selected for the analysis.Six circumstances are used to determine the number and composition of the groups of children:wealth of the household where the children under 5 currently reside(2 groups);place of residence(2 groups);age gr

129、oup of the children in months(5 groups);educational attainment of the mother(3 groups);number of children under 5 years of age in the household(6 groups);and gender of the child(2 groups).This produces n=720 groups(225362),covering the entire sample population.In practice,the D-Index summarizes how

130、much the birth registration completeness rates in these 720 groups are different from the national average.“Similar to the Gini coefficient,a value of zero implies that births of all children under 5 are registered with no one left behind.A value of one means that only a specific group of children u

131、nder 5 have their birth registered,while all other groups of children have not.”15 2.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIonFIGURE 5 Inequality in birth registration completeness rates(D-Index),latest yearSource:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 20

132、10-2022.0.280.230.160.160.130.120.100.100.090.080.070.070.070.040.030.020.020.020.010.010.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.00DISSIMILARITY INDEXACCESSINEQUALITYHigherLowerLowerHigherHigherHigherLowerLowerLower is better0.000.050.100.150.200.250.30Uzbekistan,2022Thailand,2022Turkmenistan,2019Mongolia,2018

133、Kazakhstan,2015Bhutan,2010Viet Nam,2021Kyrgyzstan,2018Maldives,2017Armenia,2016Philippines,2022Tonga,2019Tajikistan,2017Cambodia,2022Kiribati,2019Fiji,2021Indonesia,2017AverageMyanmar,2016Bangladesh,2019Nepal,2022Tuvalu,2019Timor-Leste,2016Afghanistan,2022Samoa,2019Lao PDR,2017Papua New Guinea,2018P

134、akistan,2017FIGURE 6 Inequality in birth registration completeness rates(D-Index)and average birth registration completeness rates,latest yearSource:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 2010-2022.0204060801000.000.050.100.150.200.250.30BIRTH REGISTRATION COMPLETENESS RATE(%)D

135、ISSIMILARITY INDEXPapua New Guinea,2018Pakistan,2017Lao PDR,2017Samoa,2019Afghanistan,2022Timor-Leste,2016Nepal,2022Tuvalu,2019Myanmar,2016Indonesia,2017Fiji,2021Bangladesh,2019100Tonga,2019Kiribati,2019Cambodia,2022Uzbekistan,2022Bhutan,2010Kazakhstan,2015Thailand,2022Mongolia,2018Turkmenistan,2019

136、Armenia 2016Viet Nam,2021Maldives,2017Tajikistan,2017Philippines,2022Kyrgyzstan,2018162.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIon2.5 The characteristics of children with the lowest birth registration completenessThis section narrows the focus on the furthest behind children,i.

137、e.,those children with the lowest birth registration completeness rate in each country,and identifies the common circumstances that they share.Although these circumstances might not be the same across the 27 countries analyzed,several commonalities are found.Table 1 lists the circumstances of childr

138、en under 5 with the lowest likelihood of having their birth registration completed(columns 2-7),as well as the size of the population they represent(column8).Age of child,measured in months in MICS and years in DHS,consistently matter in identifying children left furthest behind in 19 countries.In t

139、he majority of cases,children under one year of age are left behind.Household wealth comes next with children living in poorer households located at the bottom 40 per cent of the wealth distribution are also less likely to have their birth registration completed.Sex of child also matters but there i

140、s no consistent gender bias against girls or boys.Maternal education comes next with children whose mothers have lower education at a disadvantage.Place of residence appears as a key circumstance identifying furthest behind children only in Armenia and Papua New Guinea with children living in rural

141、areas at a disadvantage.Moreover,many of these furthest behind children represent a high share of the total population of children under five in their respective countries.For example,in Bangladesh,Pakistan,Papua New Guinea,Samoa and Timor-Leste,the furthest behind children represent at least 20 per

142、 cent of the total population of children under 5 in thecountry.2.6 Are the differences in birth registration declining over time?This section reviews the birth registration completeness rates where two different surveys are available at different points in time.Specifically,it explores:i)if the ave

143、rage birth registration completion has increased over time,indicating an improvement in birth registration completeness in the country;and ii)whether the gap between the furthest behind children,i.e.,those with the lowest birth registration rate,and the average birth registration has narrowed over t

144、ime,indicating an improvement for the furthest behind groups when compared to the national average(Figure7).Improvement in birth registration completion for the furthest behind children has been recorded in Nepal,Philippines Turkmenistan and Viet Nam,indicating that,on average,birth registration com

145、pletion has improved for those most marginalized children.In all countries,the gap between the furthest behind children and the average birth registration completeness rate has also decreased,indicating efforts to leave no one behind.The case of Nepal is particularly interesting since birth registra

146、tion completeness rate at national level decreased from 75 per cent in 2019 to 72 per cent in 2022 which may be related to the source of data as MICS was collected in 2019 and DHS was collected in 2022.On the other hand,there is a notable increase in the gap between furthest behind and average child

147、ren in Afghanistan from 2010 to 2022.While the birth registration completeness rate on average increased from 37 per cent to 48 per cent,there was virtually no change among furthest“In the majority of cases,children under one year of age are left behind.”“Improvement in birth registration completion

148、 for the furthest behind children has been recorded in Nepal,Philippines Turkmenistan and Viet Nam.”17 2.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIonTABLE 1 The shared circumstances of the furthest behind children under 5,latest yearCOUNTRIESWHO ARE THOSE LEFT BEHIND IN BIRTH REG

149、ISTRATION?WEALTHRESIDENCEEDUCATION LEVEL OF THE MOTHERCHILDS AGE GROUP(INMONTHS)CHILDS AGE GROUP(IN YEARS)NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER 5 YEARS OF AGEgenderSIZE OF THE FURTHEST BEHIND GROUP(%)AfghanistanB4024 months and above3 or more children under 59ArmeniaLower or secondary education4 years old9Bangla

150、desh0-1120CambodiaB40Less than 1 year old8FijiB400-1110IndonesiaB40Less than 2 years oldFemale8KiribatiB400-119Kyrgyzstan0-11Female10Lao PDRB40Lower education2 or more children under 5Male11MaldivesLess than 1 year oldMale10MongoliaRural0-117MyanmarB40Lower education2 or more children under 5Female9

151、NepalLess than 1 year old19PakistanB40Less than 3 years old24Papua New GuineaB40RuralMale22PhilippinesB40Less than 2 years old2 or more children under 59Samoa0-1120TajikistanB40Less than 1 year old19Timor-LesteB40Less than 1 year old20Tonga0-1117TuvaluB40Secondary or higher education0-11,24-3514Viet

152、 NamLower education12-23,24-355Total142510946-Source:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 2010-2022.Bhutan,Kazakhstan Thailand,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan are not shown,as the national average rate and furthest behind rate are 99 per cent or above.Note:B40 refers to household

153、s belonging to the bottom 40 of the wealth distribution,while T60 refers to those at the top 60 of the wealth distribution.182.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIated wIth bIrth regIstratIonbehind children.In Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,the gap between average children and furthest behind child

154、ren remained wide over the years.While birth registration completeness rate seems to have decreased over time,this is also due to the fact a distinction was made between family book and birth registration certificate in Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.In 2017,children whose birth registration was re

155、corded only in the family book are not categorized as their birth registration completed.Even when they are included there is a slight decrease in birth registration completeness rate in Lao Peoples Democratic Republic from 74.8 per cent in 2011-2012 to 73 per cent in 2017.It is important to note th

156、is progress is not always fully comparable because the time lag between two surveys spans from different years across countries.Furthermore,the composition of the furthest behind children may vary between the two surveys,and many other factors could be masking these results.The findings should there

157、fore be viewed with caution.FIGURE 7 Gaps in birth registration completeness,change over timeSource:ESCAP calculations based on latest DHS and MICS surveys from 2010-2022.Note:pp=percentage pointsBIRTH REGISTRATION COMPLETION RATE(%)020406080100Nepal,2022Viet Nam,2021Philippines,2022Turkmenistan,201

158、9Kazakhstan,2015Kyrgyzstan,2018Thailand,2022Lao PDR,2017Afghanistan,2022201920132017201520102014201920112010-18pp-8pp-25pp-1pp-1pp-4pp-4pp-1pp-1pp-1pp-2pp-6pp-10pp-6pp-15pp-9pp-18ppAverage rateGap is increasingRate furthest behind groupGap is decreasing-26pp19 2.IdentIfyIng the cIrcumstances assocIa

159、ted wIth bIrth regIstratIon3.Policies to bolster birth registration in Asia and the Pacific Increasing birth registration completeness in Asia and the Pacific is a vital step towards achieving inclusive social development and upholding basic human rights.Birth registration is more than just a formal

160、ity;it is the first legal acknowledgment of a childs existence and is foundational to safeguarding their rights throughout life.A registered birth serves as the primary legal document to establish ones identity,nationality,age,and family relations.This is crucial for protecting children from abuse,e

161、xploitation,and trafficking,and for ensuring their access to essential services throughout their life.The transformational pledge of Agenda 2030 on leaving no one behind cannot be achieved when births of millions of children are not registered.Since children living in vulnerable situations are overr

162、epresented among the furthest behind,their invisibility contributes to rising inequalities over generations.Concerted efforts by governments are required to leverage the rich potential of birth registration data for nuanced,evidence-based policymaking.By disaggregating birth registration completenes

163、s rates in Asia and the Pacific through an innovative methodology,this Paper shows that many countries have universal or near-universal birth registration for children under 5 years of age.However,countries with substantial gaps such as Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Pakistan

164、,and Papua New Guinea should accelerate efforts to ensure that all births are registered while other countries should strive for closing remaining small gaps in birth registration completeness.While there are numerous circumstances that are associated with birth registration,findings indicate that c

165、hildren under one year of age living in poorer(bottom 40)and larger households(with two or more children under 5 years of age)are the most common furthest behind children.Getting everyone in the picture and leaving no one behind implies that accelerated policy action is needed in a context-specific

166、manner targeting furthest behind children.The following are key considerations to assist policymakers in their commitment to“provide legal identity for all,including birth registration by 2030”(SDG Target 16.9):1 Strengthen coordination of CRVS systems and health services:effective birth registratio

167、n requires a seamless integration with the broader CRVS systems and other basic social services,especially health sector.This approach ensures that every birth is recorded not just at health facilities but also within community settings.Following the development of data sharing protocols among gover

168、nment agencies involved in civil registration process,non-ad hoc and impactful coordination and collaboration between these agencies must be promoted.35 Personal identification numbers(PIN)are highly needed in countries recording lower birth registration completion to allow linkages across databases

169、.For instance,Thailand uses an electronic civil registration system directly feeding birth and death data into the population register.When Thailand introduced the universal health coverage policy in 2001,the existence of unique identification number and computerized civil registration database help

170、ed rapidly enroll beneficiaries in health insurance plans covering 75 per cent of population within a year.362 Leverage digital innovations and information and communication technologies(ICT)to enhance accessibility:the use of ICT in civil registration processes can significantly increase both the a

171、ccessibility and accuracy of birth registration.Effective implementation of digital technologies and solutions ensures that vital events are recorded promptly and accurately,even in remote and underserved communities.From notification to registration,validation and verification,digital tools are str

172、engthening CRVS systems overall.In South-East Asia,Malaysia,Singapore and Thailand are leading the way in digitization and digitalization of CRVS systems.37 In Bangladesh,a pilot project leveraging a digital notification 20system showcased the transformative impact of ICT in improving birth and deat

173、h registration.This system,which included a mobile app and a call center,enabled various community sources,including health workers and local authorities,to report vital events effectively.38 Another example is Singapores LifeSG app,which has transformed the way its citizens access government servic

174、es,consolidating more than 70 services into a single digital portal.One of its notable achievements is the reduction of childbirth registration time,shrinking it from an hour to just 15 minutes,with the added convenience of instant digital birth certificate downloads and the possibility to apply for

175、 child benefits,with seven out of every ten births in Singapore are now registered using this app.Similarly,countries in Asia and the Pacific like Kazakhstan and Trkiye increasingly rely on e-government platforms to store and easily distribute birth registration certificates on demand.3 Implement de

176、mand-side policies with effective advocacy:Demand-side policies,supported by robust advocacy and education campaigns,are crucial in raising awareness about the importance of birth registration.Culturally tailored campaigns can play a pivotal role in changing perceptions and increasing the demand for

177、 registration services.Strengthening local and community-level participation in birth registration processes is also vital,especially to address accessibility challenges faced by people in vulnerable situations in the form of language and physical barriers to registration,among others.The success of

178、 programs in countries like Indonesia,where community-based initiatives have been instrumental in reaching out to marginalized groups,demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach.39 Advocacy and awareness raising campaigns should be delivered through most effective means of communication in langu

179、ages that are accessible to especially those who are poor and living in rural and remote areas.The importance of birth registration must be particularly communicated to teenage and unmarried mothers who can suffer from stigma at local level.vii See ESCAPs Get in the Picture platform to access a weal

180、th of resources on CRVS in Asia and the Pacific.4 Offer incentives and outreach programs:Incentive-based programs,coupled with outreach efforts,can significantly improve birth registration completion,particularly in underserved areas.Economic incentives,even in modest amounts that provide stipends f

181、or travel costs or in-kind transfers such as essential supplies for newborns,can help nudge parents to take requisite action.Such incentives should be provided on a regular basis in a predictable manner and be complemented by outreach programs.For example,in the Philippines,the governments Philippin

182、e Identification System(PhilSys)Birth Registration Assistance Project(PBRAP)effectively increased birth registration completion,especially among marginalized communities,and Muslim Filipinos,among others.The Project helped births in these communities to be registered in the Local Civil Registry Offi

183、ces which will be followed by enrollment in PhilSys.Targeting marginalized communities,the project,launched in 2022,has processed over 900,000 birth records and issued over 10,000 Certificates of Live Birth.The initiatives success is attributed to its combined use of incentives and extensive outreac

184、h,backed by strong local government support.40 In an effort to reach remote locations,frequent mobile registration services should be considered.Where possible,governments should also consider leveraging existing initiatives that target women and children and provide incentives for complete birth re

185、gistration.5 Undertake assessment of inequalities in birth registration completion:In the second half of the Decade,collecting and analyzing data from the perspective of inequalities in birth registration completion is crucial.This will help countries take requisite actions to leave no one behind.ES

186、CAP continues to provide technical assistance in undertaking such assessmentsvii.While survey data has increasingly become available,inequality assessments should be applied to integrated data whereby census data and administrative data are linked so that a holistic account of the latest status of b

187、irth registration completion is the starting point for further analysis.In addition to collecting quantitative data,it is also important to undertake qualitative studies to understand the sociocultural context of civil registration.21 3.polIcIes to bolster bIrth regIstratIon In asIa and the pacIfIc

188、Annex 1:Methodology for identifying gaps in access to barriers and opportunities Inequality of OpportunityTo measure inequality of opportunity,the ESCAP policy papers on Inequality of Opportunity identify a set of opportunities and measure the gaps among different population groups in access to thes

189、e opportunities.To do so,a set of circumstances is selected from available variables in the Demographic and Health Surveys(DHS)and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys(MICS)datasets to define the groups.The circumstances are a set of conditions over which the individuals or households have no cont

190、rol at the time of data collection.Those circumstances are used in the classification and regression tree(CART)analysis to identify the groups that are most disadvantaged in each country;in this case,the children under 5 years of age less likely to have their birth registered.The composition of thos

191、e groups varies from country to country,as does the size of the sample population represented.This approach differs from the use of“Inequality of Opportunity”in other recent literature,which instead uses regression analysis to explain the share of inequality of outcome(income inequality or consumpti

192、on inequality)that can be attributed to circumstances over which individuals have no control,such as race and sex.Given that the DHS and MICS datasets do not include information on income or consumption(both classified as outcomes),these thematic policy papers do not include such regressions.However

193、,future analysis might use the wealth index of the DHS and MICS as a proxy“outcome”and regress it on the set of circumstances used in this analysis.The Data SourcesDHS and MICS are publicly available for 30 countries in Asia and the Pacific as shown in Table A1.The DHS and MICS datasets are selected

194、 because of the:a)comparability across countries;b)accessibility of the data;and c)extensive questions on health,demographic and basic socioeconomic data referencing both the household(e.g.,water and sanitation,financial inclusion,electricity and clean fuels,ownership of mobile phones)and individual

195、s(e.g.,level of education,nutrition status).Data on birth registration completeness was available in 27 countries.The CountriesBased on available surveys,27 countries are included in this Inequality of Opportunity policy paper on birth registration.Table A1 provides the full list of 27 countries and

196、 their latest survey years.TABLE A1 List of countries and survey years COUNTRYLATEST YEARLATEST SURVEYAfghanistan2022MICSArmenia2016DHSBangladesh2019MICSBhutan2010MICSCambodia2022DHSFiji2021MICSIndonesia2017DHSKazakhstan2015DHSKiribati2019MICSKyrgyzstan2018MICSLao Peoples Democratic Republic2017MICS

197、Maldives2017DHSMongolia2018MICSMyanmar2016DHSNepal2022DHSPakistan2017DHSPapua New Guinea2018DHSPhilippines2022DHSSamoa2019MICSTajikistan2017DHSThailand2015MICSTimor-Leste2016DHSTonga2019MICSTurkmenistan2019MICSTuvalu2019MICSUzbekistan2022MICSViet Nam2021MICS22The Indicators and CircumstancesThis pap

198、er investigates disparities in birth registration for children under 5 years of age based on their common,shared demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.The circumstances used in the analysis are:wealth of the household where the children under 5 currently reside(belonging to the top 60 or the

199、 bottom 40 of the household wealth distribution);place of residence(urban or rural);age group of the children in months(0-11 months,12-23 months,24-35 months,36-47 months,and 48-59 months);educational attainment of the mother(lower education,secondary education,or higher education);number of childre

200、n under 5 years of age in the household(none(0.5),2 or more(1.5),3 or more(2.5),fewer than 2(1.5),fewer than 3(2.5);and gender of the child(male or female).In each iteration,the algorithm identifies children with the highest and lowest likelihood of having their birth registered with the national au

201、thorities.The Classification and Regression Tree(CART)Knowing that inequality of opportunity is broadly associated with specific circumstances opens the door to deeper exploration of the data,to see exactly which groups of children are the most marginalized and which groups of children have benefite

202、d most from development.Identifying these groups could help policymakers better focus policy and programmes to tackle inequality of opportunity.The primary goal of using classification and regression tree(CART)analysis is to identify the groups of children with the lowest and highest access to oppor

203、tunities,in this case,those with the lowest and highest birth registration rates.“Birth registration”is the response variable,while the factors that characterize these groups are the explanatory variables,also referred to as“circumstances”.viii A tree is an analytical structure that represents group

204、s of children of the sample population that have significantly different response values,or different birth registration rates.viii Within the field of machine learning,response and explanatory variables are more commonly referred to as target and input attributes,respectively.To identify the groups

205、 of children with the greatest difference in their birth registration,a regression tree is constructed for each country using R,an open-source statistical software.The root node of the tree refers to the entire population sample.The tree method algorithm starts by searching for the first split(or“pa

206、rtition”)of the tree.It does so by looking at each circumstance and separating the sample in two groups,so that it best satisfies a certain“splitting criterion.”This splitting criterion can be defined in a few ways,while the one used here is the Analysis of Variance,or“ANOVA.”The formula that repres

207、ents the core of the algorithm is the following:Where is the sum of squares for the parent node,and SSL and SSR are the sums of squares for the left and right child nodes,respectively.41 The sum of squares is calculated by first finding the distance between,the sample mean,and the ith data point Yi.

208、This is also referred to as the deviation.If deviations for all data points Y1,Y2,Yi are squared and then summed,as in,this yields the sum of squares for these data.This is equivalent to choosing the split to maximize the between-groups sum of squares in a simple analysis of variance.The CART algori

209、thm applies this ANOVA test to each possible split,or partition,of the sample population given by the circumstances.After comparing all of the available partitions,the algorithm is able to identify the single partition that would decrease variance the most for the combined sum of squares of the chil

210、d nodes compared to the parent node.This is how CART uses ANOVA to identify the best possible split for each node down the tree.In the example of birth registration,SST would describe the variance in the sum of squares for the share of children under 5 having their birth being registered The possibl

211、e partitions of this sample,resulting in SSL and SSR,would include the wealth of the household where the children under 5 currently reside(belonging to the top 60 or the bottom 40 of the household wealth distribution);place of residence(urban or rural);age group 23 annex 1:methodology for IdentIfyIn

212、g gaps In access to barrIers and opportunItIes of the children in months(0-11 months,12-23 months,24-35 months,36-47 months,and 48-59 months);educational attainment of the mother(lower education,secondary education,or higher education);number of children under 5 years of age in the household(none(0.

213、5),2 or more(1.5),3 or more(2.5),fewer than 2(1.5),fewer than 3(2.5);and gender of the child(male or female).Within the parameters of CART,all partitions are binary;among circumstances with multiple split thresholds,such as age group of the children,each possible combination of age grouping is consi

214、dered(for example 0-11 and 12-23 months could be a single cohort assigned to one of the nodes,with 24-35,36-47,and 48-59 months assigned to the other).This means the resultant nodes associated with SSL and SSR are mutually exclusive and complementary,and every child belongs to one and only one of th

215、e nodes for each partition of the tree generation.The actual algorithm that generates the nodes for each partition works step-by-step,starting from the entire sample(where“T”given by SST is the root node).Each time the sample is partitioned,new nodes are generated,and the ANOVA is calculated and com

216、pared to the ANOVA before the new partition.This stepwise process of building nodes and branches of a tree is also known as“recursive partitioning.”Each partition(and hence the new pair of nodes)is kept when the decrease of variance exceeds a preset threshold also known as a“complexity parameter.”Wh

217、en the best available partition fails to satisfy the complexity parameter,or a set of other preset conditions cant be satisfied,the algorithm ceases to make additional partitions.The nodes that could not be further partitioned are henceforth referred to as“terminal nodes.”In addition to finding grou

218、ps of children that have significant differences in their birth registration rates,the CART algorithm,as applied to identify the furthest behind,requires that each group should have enough group members.To avoid a too small sub-sample size,the analysis ceases to make additional partitions if the res

219、ultant nodes would fail to contain either 9 per cent of the total sample population or an absolute value of 49 survey respondents.The analysis is also limited to 6 levels of nodes(encompassing 5 partitions),as additional partitions past that point have diminishing returns for the purpose of identify

220、ing population groups experiencing inequality of opportunity.Choice of CircumstancesOut of the many variables available in the DHS and MICS surveys,several determinant factors are considered to help identify the most excluded groups of children under 5.The selection of variables is consistent across

221、 all surveys to maintain comparability across countries.These circumstances(determinant factors)define the composition of the groups of children.However,circumstances should not be interpreted as“causes”of inequality.The association found does not imply causality.Furthermore,there are many other fac

222、tors that these models cannot consider,given the limitations of the datasets.Ideally,it would have been preferred to include only circumstances over which the children have little control,such as the dominant religion in the respondents household,ethnicity,existence of a disability,or education of t

223、he father.The majority of the DHS and MICS surveys did not include these questions.Gaps and LimitationsThe available datasets limit the scope of this analysis somewhat.First,several relevant circumstances cannot be captured.Furthermore,and consistent with similar studies on inequalities among groups

224、,this analysis does not consider inequality within groups.Even within homogenous groups,additional unobserved circumstances may affect outcomes.This analysis only calculates observable averages for each group,and thus draws conclusions on gaps and inequality based on these observations.Finally,recen

225、t literature also links inequality of outcome with inequality of opportunity,by calculating the share of income inequality(inequality of outcome)that can be explained by the circumstances of each group.This analysis in this series of policy papers does not follow the same approach because the datase

226、ts do not include an income proxy besides the wealth index.24annex 1:methodology for IdentIfyIng gaps In access to barrIers and opportunItIes The wealth index and the bottom 40 top 60 wealth splitWealth,as used in this policy paper,is a composite index reflecting a households cumulative living stand

227、ard that is developed by the DHS and MICS researchers and combines a range of household circumstances including:a)ownership of household assets,such as TVs,radios and bicycles;b)materials used for housing;and c)type of water and sanitation facilities.The wealth index is calculated using the Principa

228、l Component Analysis and thus allows a relative ranking of households based on their assets.ix The wealth index is not comparable across countries,however,as it consists of different assets in each country.Cross-country comparison of household access based on“wealth”should be understood with this ca

229、veat.In this series of policy papers,the wealth index is employed as a circumstance to distinguish between different types of households.Although technically not a circumstance over which the respondent has no control,wealth is still a proxy for many hidden conditions that may limit access to a cert

230、ain opportunity,especially considering the lack of other determinant factors to explore.In this paper,children can belong to one of two possible groups based on the wealth index:ix For more information,see Demographic and Health Surveys(DHS).Available at:http:/ the bottom 40 per cent(sometimes label

231、led as“poorer”)and the top 60 per cent(or“richer”).Several other possible cuts of the wealth index were considered,including by quintile,top 40 bottom 40,and top 10 bottom 40.None of these were selected however,because generally they produce more homogenous groups thus overshadowing other circumstan

232、ces(e.g.,education levels,rural urban distinctions).The top 40 bottom 40 approach(and its variation of top 10 bottom 40)are also rejected because they eliminate 20 to 50 per cent of the sample population from the analysis,with a risk of missing some“middle class”groups with common characteristics(e.

233、g.,secondary education).Narrowing the sample population to only half(top 10 bottom 40)also runs the risk of not allowing for making statistically significant inferences.Moreover,neither thetopnode,or rootof the tree,nor the size of the groups of the rest of the nodes wouldbe representative of the po

234、pulation.Finally,the wealth index in the DHS and MICS produces a distribution of householdsby wealth without any monetary values assigned to the distribution.Therefore,the comparisons of top 1 top 10 top 40 per cent do not have the same explanatory value as they would if the wealth index had taken c

235、ontinuous monetary values.TABLE A2 Selected Indicators and FactorsOPPORTUNITY STUDIED COMPONENTBirth registrationINDICATORBirth registrationCIRCUMSTANCES USED TO DETERMINE THE FURTHEST BEHIND GROUPS VARIABLE 1WealthVARIABLE 2ResidenceVARIABLE 3Age of the childrenVAIRABLE 4Educational attainment of t

236、he motherVARIABLE 5Number of children under 5 years of ageVARIABLE 6GenderSDG REFERENCERELATED SDG INDICATORIndicator 16.9.1:“proportion of children under 5 years of age whose births have been registered with a civil authority,by age”SURVEY QUESTION(DHS/MICS)1)“Does(name)have a birth certificate)?”;

237、and 2)“Has(name)s birth been registered with the Civil Registration Authority?”SURVEY REFERENCESURVEY RECODEHR,IR25 annex 1:methodology for IdentIfyIng gaps In access to barrIers and opportunItIes References1 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(DESA)(2014).“Principles and Recomm

238、endations for a Vital Statistics System.Revision 3.”United Nations,New York2 Mikkelsen,Lene,David E.Phillips,Carla AbouZahr,Philip W.Setel,Don De Savigny,Rafael Lozano,and Alan D.Lopez.“A Global Assessment of Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems:Monitoring Data Quality and Progress.”The L

239、ancet 386,no.10001;2015:1395-1406.3 Abouzahr,C.,Stein,C.,Chapman,N.,Toole,D.,LeFranc,C.,Joshi,K.,&Hansen,R.M.(2014).“A Development Imperative:Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems in the Asia-Pacific Region.”Asia-Pacific Population Journal,29(1).4 Scolaro,E.,Blagojevic,A.,Filion,B.,Chandra

240、-Mouli,V.,Say,L.,Svanemyr,J.,&Temmerman,M.(2015).“Child Marriage Legislation in the Asia-Pacific Region.”The Review of Faith&International Affairs,13(3),23-31.5 Hunter,W.,&Brill,R.(2016).“Documents,Please:Advances in Social Protection and Birth Certification in the Developing World.”World Politics,6

241、8(2),191-228.6 United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and Pacific(ESCAP)(2015).“Asian and Pacific Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Decade 2015-2024.”.Available at:https:/www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Asian_and_Pacific_Civil_Registration_and_Vital_Statistics_Decade2015-2024_Booklet.

242、pdf7 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2019).“Birth Registration for Every Child by 2030:Are we on Track”.UNICEF,New York,2019.Available at:https:/www.unicef.org/media/62981/file/Birth-registration-for-every-child-by-2030.pdf8 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific(ES

243、CAP)(2021).“Getting Every One in the Picture:A Snapshot of Progress Midway through the Asian and Pacific Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Decade.”Available at:https:/repository.unescap.org/handle/20.500.12870/47019 United Nations Statistics Division(2023).“Demographic and Social Statistics.”A

244、vailable at:https:/unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/crvs/10 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2013).“Every Childs Birth Right:Inequities and Trends in Birth Registration.”UNICEF,New York11 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2021).“A Statistical Profile of Birth Registration in Asia and

245、the Pacific.”UNICEF,New York,2021.Available at:https:/data.unicef.org/resources/a-statistical-profile-of-birth-registration-in-asia-and-the-pacific/12 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2000).“Poverty Reduction Begins with Children”.Available at:http:/www.albacharia.ma/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1234

246、56789/30755/0512Poverty%20Reduction%20Begins%20with%20Children%20(2000).pdf?sequence=113 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)(2021).Getting every one in the picture:A Snapshot of Progress Midway through the Asian and Pacific Civil Registration and Vital Stati

247、stics Decade.ESCAP,Bangkok.14 Cheong,A.R.,&Baltazar,M.A.K.(2021).“Too Precarious to Walk:An Integrated“Three Delays”Framework for Modeling Barriers to Maternal Health Care and Birth Registration Among Stateless Persons and Irregular Migrants in Malaysia.”Genus,77(1),1-26.15 Hereward,M.,Williams,C.,P

248、etrowski,N.,&Cappa,C.(2019).“Universal Birth Registration by 2030:Progress and Challenges.”The Lancet,394(10216),2211-2212.16 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2002).“Birth Registration:Right from the Start”.UNICEF Innocenti Digest,9,1-32.Available at:https:/www.unicef-irc.org/publications/330-b

249、irth-registration-right-from-the-start.html17 Duff,Putu,Santi Kusumaningrum,and Lindsay Stark(2016).“Barriers to Birth Registration in Indonesia.”The Lancet Global Health.e234-e235.18 Bennouna C,Feldman B,Usman R,Adiputra R,Kusumaningrum S,Stark L.(2016).“Using the Three Delays Model to Examine Civi

250、l Registration Barriers in Indonesia.”PLoS One,11(12),e016840519 Mikkelsen,L.(2010)“Rapid Assessment of Vital Statistics Systems:Evaluation of the Application of the WHO/HIS Hub Tool in 26 countries in the AsiaPacific region.”Working Paper No.10.20 Oomman N,Mehl G,Berg M,Silverman R.(2013).“Modernis

251、ing Vital Registration Systems:Why Now?”Lancet.381(9875):1336-1337.doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)60847-821 United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF)(2019).“Birth Registration for Every Child by 2030:Are we on Track”.UNICEF,New York,2019.Available at:https:/www.unicef.org/media/62981/file/Birth-registration-

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253、df 23 Kumar,K.,&Saikia,N.(2021).“Determinants of Birth Registration in India:Evidence from NFHS 201516”.Plos one,16(9),e0257014.24 Nomura,M.,Xangsayarath,P.,Takahashi,K.,Kamiya,Y.,Siengsounthone,L.,Ogino,H.,&Kobayashi,J.(2018).“Socioeconomic Determinants of Accessibility to Birth Registration in Lao

254、 PDR”.BMC Public Health,18,1-925 Bubandt,Nils(2009).“From the Enemys Point of View:Violence,Empathy,and the Ethnography of Fakes.”Cultural Anthropology.24.3.553-588.26 Bhabbha,Jacqueline,and Jacqueline Bhabha(2009).“Arendts Children:Do Todays Migrant Children Have a Right to Have Rights?”Human Right

255、s Quarterly(2009):410-451.27 Duff,P.,Kusumaningrum,S.,&Stark,L.(2016).“Barriers to Birth Registration in Indonesia.“The Lancet Global Health,4(4),e234-e235.28 United Nations Childrens Fund.(2020)Child Protection in Indonesia:Birth Registration.Accessed at https:/www.unicef.org/indonesia/media/5621/f

256、ile/Infographic%20on%20Birth%20Registration.pdf29 Naidu,S.,M.Buttsworth,and A.Aumura.“Strengthening Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems in the Pacific:the Fijian Experience.”Working Paper No.35.2013.Available at:https:/unstats.un.org/wiki/display/CRAVS/Strengthening+civil+registration+an

257、d+vital+statistics+systems+in+the+Pacific%3A+the+Fiji+experience30 Pasali,S.and W.Hu(2023).Inequality of Opportunity in Asia and the Pacific:The case of birth registration in Fiji.United Nations ESCAP,Social Development Division,June 2023,Bangkok.31 Buffardi,A.L.,&Yon,K.M.(2016).“Realising the Right

258、 to Legal Identity:A Case Study as Part of an Evaluation of the Australia-Indonesia Partnership for Justice”.Overseas Development Institute.2632 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)(2021).Getting every one in the picture:A snapshot of progress midway through

259、the Asian and Pacific Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Decade.ESCAP,Bangkok.33 Savic,P.,Simmods,J.,Sokou,E.and Wang,Y.(2021).A methodology to identify those furthest behind in Asia and the Pacific.Working Paper 2021/01,Social Development Division,ESCAP.34 Roman,O.(2023).“Birth Registration in

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261、(2023).Inequality Assessment for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Lao PDR.ESCAP,Bangkok.36 Pannarunothai,S.,Kijsanayotin,B.,&Mills,S.(2019).“Thai Civil Registration and Vital Statistics and Unique Identification Number Systems for Universal Health Coverage:A Case Study”.World Bank.37 United N

262、ations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pcaific(ESCAP)(2023).Civil Registration in South-East Asia:Legislation,Digitization an dInequality.ESCAP,Bangkok38 Tahsina,T.,Iqbal,A.,Rahman,A.E.,Chowdhury,S.K.,Chowdhury,A.I.,Billah,S.M.,.&El Arifeen,S.(2022).“Birth and Death Notifications for

263、 Improving Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in Bangladesh:Pilot Exploratory Study”.JMIR Public Health and Surveillance,8(8),e25735.39 Alfana,M.A.F.,Wahyudi,T.P.,&Aulia,D.N.(2018,April).“Human Development in Civil Registration Aspect:Achievement of Birth Certificate Documents in Indonesia”.InI

264、OP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science(Vol.145,No.1,p.012115).IOP Publishing.40 Philippines Statistics Authority(2022).“Updates on the Implementation of PhilSys Birth Registration Assistance Project”.Available at:https:/psa.gov.ph/content/updates-implementation-philsys-birth-registrati

265、on-assistance-project41 Therneau,Terry,and Elizabeth Atkinson.2019.“An Introduction to Recursive Partitioning Using the RPART Routines”.Mayo Foundation.Available at:https:/cran.rproject.org/web/packages/rpart/vignettes/longintro.pdf 27 referencesInequality of Opportunity in Asia and the Pacific:Birt

266、h RegistrationReducing inequality in all its forms is at the heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.It is emphasized in the stand-alone Goal 10“Reduce inequality within and among countries”and in other Goals that call for universality and for“leaving no one behind”.Reducing inequality

267、advances human rights and social justice and is fundamental for all three dimensions of sustainable development.The ESCAP Inequality of Opportunity papers identify areas of basic opportunities where inequality jeopardizes a persons life prospects,namely:education;womens access to healthcare;children

268、s nutrition;decent employment;basic water and sanitation;access to clean energy;financial inclusion,pandemic preparedness,and intimate partner violence against women.Each of these opportunities are covered by specific commitments outlined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and addressed

269、in a separate thematic paper covering up to 30 countries throughout Asia and the Pacific.This report extends the Inequality of Opportunity series to explore inequality in birth registration and identifies the shared circumstances of the most disadvantaged groups of children under 5 in birth registration in Asia and the Pacific.Visit our webpage at:www.unescap.org/our-work/social-developmenthttps:/lnob.unescap.org/