欧盟委员会：2017年欧元区经济季度报告(英文版)(80页)（80页）.pdf

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1、Economic and Financial Affairs ISSN 2443-8014 (online) INSTITUTIONAL PAPER 072 | FEBRUARY 2018 Quarterly Report on the Euro Area Volume 16, No 3 (2017) EUROPEAN ECONOMY The Quarterly Report on the Euro Area is written by staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. It is inte

2、nded to contribute to a better understanding of economic developments in the euro area and to improve the quality of the public debate surrounding the areas economic policy. The views expressed are the authors alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission. The Report is

3、 released every quarter of the year. Editors: Jose Eduardo Leandro, Gabriele Giudice Coordination: Katia Berti, Eric Meyermans Statistical and layout assistance: Despina Efthimiadou, Dris Rachik Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent to: Unit A2 EMU deepening and macr

4、oeconomy of the euro area European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate Policy, Strategy and Communication Email: ECFIN-QUARTERLY-REPORT-EAec.europa.eu LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is

5、responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from https:/ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018

6、PDF ISBN 978-92-79-77453-9 ISSN 2443-8014 doi:10.2765/93210 KC-BC-18-004-EN-N European Union, 2018 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). For any use or reproductio

7、n of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Quarterly Report on the Euro Area Volume 16, No 3 (2017) EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 072 Table of conte

8、nts Editorial 7 I. Sustainable convergence in the euro area: A multi-dimensional process 9 I.1. Introduction 9 I.2. Sustainable convergence as a multi-dimensional concept: definitions and economic rationale for EMU 10 I.3. Convergence patterns in the euro area 13 I.4. Multi-dimensional convergence:

9、complementarities and trade-offs 18 I.5. Conclusions and policy implications 21 II. Impact of uncertainty shocks in the euro area 25 II.1. Introduction 25 II.2. Measures of uncertainty 26 II.3. Impact of uncertainty in the euro area 29 II.4. Uncertainty shocks and structural characteristics of EA co

10、untries 31 II.5. Conclusions 38 III. Long-term labour market effects of the Great Recession 41 III.1. Introduction 41 III.2. Labour market effects and divergence 42 III.3. Does history matter in the long run? 43 III.4. Possible factors affecting the persistence of labour market shocks and policy res

11、ponses 47 III.5. Responsiveness of wages to long-term unemployment 49 III.6. Matching efficiency: sectoral reallocation and unemployment persistence 50 III.7. Conclusions 54 IV. The start of a new cycle: Recent housing price dynamics in Europe and their macroeconomic implications 57 IV.1. Introducti

12、on 57 IV.2. Housing markets during the global financial crisis: a mostly synchronised boom and bust 58 IV.3. Recent developments: gradual recovery and rising heterogeneity 60 IV.4. Housing price valuation gaps 63 IV.5. Conclusion and policy implications 67 V. ECBs asset purchase programmes and chang

13、es in international investment positions of euro area countries between end-2014 and end-2016 69 V.1. Introduction 69 V.2. Recent changes in the sectoral composition of NIIPs of the largest TARGET2 creditor and debtor countries 70 V.3. Conclusions 72 Boxes I.1. Drivers of real convergence: some empi

14、rical results 23 II.1. Interactions between uncertainty and other shocks 39 III.1. Panel VARs on response of employment growth to labour costs 55 III.2. Panel VARs on response of employment growth to labour costs 56 IV.1. An error-correction model for housing prices in the EU 65 Editorial Volume 16

15、No 3 | 7 Euro area economies have performed well in the first half of 2017. As shown in the Autumn 2017 macroeconomic forecasts released by the Commission, the pace of economic growth has picked up (2.2% in 2017, 0.5 p.p. higher than forecast in spring) and the expansion has become broad-based acros

16、s countries. Labour market conditions have improved. Investment has picked up and private consumption remains robust, while stronger global demand is also providing continued momentum for growth. Legacies from the economic and financial crisis nonetheless remain, especially in terms of high private

17、and public debt levels in some euro area members. Investment, especially public investment, remains relatively low as a share of GDP. The outlook for inflation is still subdued amid sluggish wage growth, despite robust job creation. And while unemployment is expected to go below 8% by 2019, it is st

18、ill very high, especially if broader measures of unemployment are considered. Against this background, this Quarterly Report on the Euro Area examines a series of topical issues, with an eye to policy lessons that can be learnt from the experience of the crisis and to developments to be monitored go

19、ing forward. Strengthening economic resilience (in its three dimensions of reducing the economies vulnerability to shocks, their shock absorption capacity and their ability to swiftly recover from shocks) emerges as key from the analysis presented in the report. As explained in Section 1, the recent

20、 crisis has indeed shown that several euro area members lacked the appropriate economic structures to prevent and respond to the build-up of imbalances and the economic recession that followed. This has contributed to sizeable output losses and persistently high unemployment rates. Convergence towar

21、ds more resilient economic structures would therefore provide an important contribution to improve the capacity of EMU and its member states to withstand shocks in the absence of intra-area exchange rates and with monetary policy that cannot be tailored to country- specific needs. By limiting the im

22、pact and persistence of shocks and strengthening the effectiveness of the common monetary policy, stronger economic resilience can also be expected to have positive effects on other dimensions of convergence, especially cyclical, real and social convergence. Sustainable convergence, i.e. a convergen

23、ce process that is durable and sustainable over time, would be supported as a result, contributing to the longer-term socio- economic and political sustainability of EMU. The analysis of uncertainty shocks in the euro area (in Section 2) suggests that individual structural characteristics of the eco

24、nomies do determine their responses to such shocks, as much as the origin of the shocks themselves (idiosyncratic versus common). Indeed, unexpected spikes in uncertainty (like the ones experienced in the recent crisis) tend to have a negative impact on the real economy (notably investment) and this

25、 differs across euro area members. Those Member States with more efficient labour, product markets and financial systems are in a better position to weather uncertainty shocks, displaying stronger economic resilience, thereby supporting the adjustment in EMU. Section 3 of the report on long-term lab

26、our market effects of the Great Recession looks at the experience of the crisis and shows that wage adjustments primarily happened in reaction to changes in short-term unemployment (while being less responsive to long- term unemployment). At the same time, labour reallocation took place only sluggis

27、hly from sectors that were booming before the crisis to sectors with stronger growth potential, due to skills mismatches. Policies that limit skill erosion and support skill formation during downturns and measures that improve the working of product markets are therefore particularly important to ea

28、se sectoral reallocation (another key dimension of stronger economic resilience) and limit negative long-term labour market effects. Well-designed short-term working arrangements (as the ones used or developed by several euro area countries during the recent crisis) can also be particularly valuable

29、 policy tools during severe economic downturns. Marco Buti Director-General 8 | Quarterly Report on the Euro Area Section 4 of the report turns the attention to house price dynamics, highlighting possible developments of particular relevance to the euro area. Before the global financial crisis, many

30、 Member States experienced a housing boom which brought house prices to record levels, followed often by a slump during the crisis. Despite the general correction, house prices in most Member States appear broadly close to the pre-crisis peak. In a number of countries, house prices have recently inc

31、reased and a risk of overheating has been recorded. In other countries, house price increases have been more localised and hence less worrying from a financial stability standpoint. As also highlighted in the recently published Alert Mechanism Report 2018, continued monitoring is required to avoid t

32、he possible accumulation of pockets of macro- financial risks in countries characterised by buoyant house price growth. The discrepancy between the situations in the housing cycle in the euro area clearly calls for differentiated policy responses across Member States. Finally, the last section of th

33、e report (Section 5) takes a look at the ECBs expanded asset purchase programme and related changes in international investment positions of euro area countries over 2014-16. Increases in central bank reserves related to asset purchases and other liquidity providing operations by the Eurosystem were

34、 accompanied by different types of cross-border financial flows. This affected foreign assets and liabilities of the main domestic sectors. In particular, portfolio rebalancing toward foreign financial assets by the private non- banking sector in the main TARGET2 debtor countries has likely contribu

35、ted to the recent divergence in TARGET2 balances. This divergence might have also reflected repayments of gross foreign liabilities by these countries banking sector (excluding national central banks). In other words, the private sector in the main TARGET2 debtor countries seems to have taken the op

36、portunity offered by the increased provision of liquidity by the Eurosystem to improve its net international investment position. This should increase resilience to a possible future tightening of global financing conditions. Overall, going forward, policy measures that strengthen the economic resil

37、ience of the euro area as a whole and its individual members are key to ensure a well-functioning EMU and should be implemented as a matter of priority. Product market institutions that foster competition and provide a business-friendly environment and labour market institutions that are responsive

38、to cyclical conditions and support transitions should receive particular attention in policy design and implementation. At the same time, well- functioning financial markets provide a crucial contribution to resilience by directing funding to the most productive and financially viable firms, while e

39、nsuring an appropriate differentiation of funding sources, thereby also reducing risks and increasing shock-absorption capacity in the euro area. Progress on the Capital Markets Union would therefore provide an important contribution to strengthening resilience in EMU. I. Sustainable convergence in

40、the euro area: A multi- dimensional process Volume 16 No 3 | 9 I.1. Introduction Sustainable convergence (defined here as a convergence process that is durable and sustainable over time) is key in the context of economic and monetary integration in the euro area. It importantly contributes to the we

41、ll-functioning of EMU in terms of economic performance, as well as to its socio-economic and political sustainability in the longer run. In turn, a well-functioning EMU supports sustainable convergence as it strengthens the incentives for, inter alia, cross-border trade and capital flows, technology

42、 and knowledge transfers, labour mobility and price arbitrage, all drivers of convergence. Discussions on how to strengthen sustainable convergence have recently occupied the centre stage in the debate on the completion of EMU. (2) (1) This section was prepared by Katia Berti and Eric Meyermans. The

43、 authors wish to thank Erik Canton, Alessandro Turrini and Nicolas Philiponnet for useful comments. (2) The Five Presidents Report of June 2015 suggested to strengthen the existing governance framework for economic policy coordination in the short run, while introducing a more formalised set of comm

44、only agreed binding standards in the In this section the point is made that sustainable convergence should be looked at as a multi- dimensional process, covering different relevant dimensions (nominal, real, social and cyclical convergence, as well as convergence towards resilient economic structure

45、s). All these dimensions together concur in ensuring the long-term economic, social and political sustainability of the EMU. At the same time, some of these dimensions are relatively more important for the well- functioning of EMU and should therefore be achieved as a matter of priority. Measures to

46、 strengthen convergence towards resilient economic structures, as well as reforms (of institutional nature too) that help preventing unsustainable financial cycles are key in this respect. Conceiving convergence as a multi-dimensional process implies medium term. To the same aim, the European Commis

47、sions Reflection Paper on the deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union of May 2017 pointed to the possibility of: i) strengthening the EU-level framework for convergence (the single market, the banking and capital markets union); ii) strengthening economic policy coordination under the European

48、Semester (and here reference is made also to the possibility of a more binding convergence process based on agreed standards, as envisaged in the Five Presidents Report); and iii) reinforcing the link between national reforms and EU funding. Economic and social divergences between euro area Member States that emerged with the recent crisis have brought to the forefront of the policy debate the issue of convergence, and in particular what could be called sustainable convergence (i.e. a convergence process that is durable and sustainable over time). In this section the point is made that