2020半导体的地缘政治 -欧亚集团（英文版）（15页）.pdf

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1、The Geopolitics of Semiconductors PREPARED BY EURASIA GROUP SEPTEMBER 2020 Prepared by Eurasia Group This report is based on the opinions of Eurasia Group analysts and various in-country specialists. Eurasia Group is a private research and consulting firm that maintains no affiliations with governme

2、nts or political parties. Report issued September 2020 | 2020 Eurasia Group CONTACTS Paul Triolo Practice Head, Geo-technology +1 202.903.0006 Kevin Allison Director, Geo-technology +49 151.2882.3945 PREPARED BY EURASIA GROUP SEPTEMBER 2020 The Geopolitics of Semiconductors CONTENTS Key findings 3 U

3、S-China semiconductor competition will have global consequences 3 Semiconductors are a strategic bottleneck, and China is vulnerable 4 Fallout for Taiwan as US attempts to drive wedge between “red” and “blue” supply chains 9 US seizes on Chinas semiconductor vulnerability in its campaign against Hua

4、wei 10 Industry revenue at risk as further US action targeting broader array of Chinese tech companies increasingly likely 11 New US semiconductor industrial policy coming into focus: Build it and others will come 11 Chinas response will heighten risks for Taiwan 13 US pressure will push China to em

5、brace alternatives to ARM and x86 ASIC architectures, but huge challenges loom 13 Looking ahead 14 eurasia group | 3 Prepared by Eurasia Group | September 2020 THE GEOPOLITICS OF SEMICONDUCTORS Key findings Technology and market trends over the past decade have concentrated cutting-edge semiconducto

6、r manufacturing capabilities among a handful of companies located in global hotspots, including South Korea and, most importantly, Taiwan. This trend is now having geopolitical consequences. Semiconductors are a strategic vulnerability for China and its most important tech company, Huawei, which rel