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1、Recovery Sustainable World Energy Outlook Special Report in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, d
2、emand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that l
3、imit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/tandMistryoftheEnvironment,LandandSea,Italyon smart grids and power system modernisation. Activities within the IEA Clean Energy TechnologiesProgrammeprovidedvaluablesupporttothisreport. A webinar and an onli
4、ne consultation was held at the end of March 2020 in which participantsofferedvaluableinsights,feedbackanddataforthisanalysis.Wearegratefulfor theirinput. A number of senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewedpreliminaryreportdrafts.Commentsandsuggestionsthatwe
5、reofgreatvaluefor thereportwerereceivedfrom: LydiaShawelAbebeWorldHealthOrganization(WHO) AngelineAfanoukoeNexans DougArentUSNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL) JasonBabikWestinghouse GeorgBaeumlVolkswagen RichardBaron2050PathwaysPlatform JimBarrettBarrettEconomics HarmeetBawaABBPowerGrids SamaB
6、ilbaoyLeonNuclearEnergyAgency(NEA) RinaBohleZellerVestas,Denmark JasonBordoffColumbiaUniversity,UnitedStates NilsBorgEuropeanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomy AlexBowenLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience WilliamBrentPowerforAll SamBrockAmericanWindEnergyAssociation MarkBrownsteinEnvironmenta
7、lDefenseFund,UnitedStates SimonBuckleOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment (OECD) NickButlerKingsCollegeLondon SallyCairnsUniversityofLeeds BenCaldecottUniversityofOxford JulieCammellGlobalOffGridLightingAssociation PantelisCaprosE3Modelling AnneSophieCerisolaUnitedNations RusselConklinUS
8、DepartmentofEnergy BethCopanasRES PaulaCoussyIFPEnergiesNouvelles FrancoisDassaEDF BrianDeanSustainableEnergyforAll IEA. All rights reserved Acknowledgements 7 NicolasDiSbroiavaccaFundacinBariloche NavrozDubashCentreforPolicyResearch,India CandiceElAsmarPermanentDelegationofAustraliatotheOECD DavidE
9、lzingaAsianDevelopmentBank NormantEmmanuelSaintGobain AlexEvansGlobalLPGPartnership OlivierFontanHautConseilpourleClimat,France JamesFosterUKDepartmentforBusiness,EnergyandIndustrialStrategy ChristopherFreyENERCON JeanFranoisGagnDepartmentofNaturalResourcesCanada FaithGanEnergyMarketAuthority,Singap
10、ore PeterGeorgeCleanCookingAlliance MichaelGhielmettiABB ArunabhaGhoshCouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater,India DolfGielenInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA) PeterGornischeffPermanentRepresentationofEstoniatotheOECDand UNESCO MichaelGrubbUniversityCollegeLondon StphaneHallegatteTheWorldBank At
11、leHarbySintef AntoineHerzogEDF ChristinaHoodCompassClimate FrankJotzoAustralianNationalUniversity MichaelKellyWorldLPGAssociation FabianKesickiE.ONSE HoseokKimKoreaEnvironmentInstitute TomaszKozlukOECD JochenKreuselT(2)increasethespread ofcleanertransportsuchasmoreefficientandelectricvehicles,andhig
12、hspeedrail;(3) improvetheenergyefficiencyofbuildingsandappliances;(4)enhancetheefficiencyof equipment used in industries such as manufacturing, food and textiles; (5) make the production and use of fuels more sustainable; and (6) boost innovation in crucial IEA. All rights reserved 14 World Energy O
13、utlook 2020 | Special Report technologyareasincludinghydrogen,batteries,carboncaptureutilisationandstorage,and smallmodularnuclearreactors. Governments are set to make major decisions that will affect huge amounts of investment and shape infrastructure and industries for decades to come. Massive sti
14、mulus packages offer a unique opportunity to put the energy sector on a more sustainable path. Compared with the 200809 crisis, the costs of leading clean energy technologiessuchaswindandsolarPVarefarlower,andsomeemergingtechnologieslike batteriesandhydrogenarereadytoscaleup.GlobalCO2emissionsflatli
15、nedin2019and are set for a record decline this year. While this drop, which results from lockdown measuresandtheireconomicimpacts,isnothingtocelebrate,itprovidesabasefrom whichtoputemissionsintostructuraldecline. Theplanprovidesasignificantboosttojobsandgrowth Our Sustainable Recovery Plan shows it
16、is possible to simultaneously spur economic growth,createmillionsofjobsandputemissionsintostructuraldecline.Throughdetailed assessmentsofmorethan30specificenergypolicymeasurestobecarriedoutoverthe nextthreeyears,thisreportconsidersthecircumstancesofindividualcountriesaswellas existingpipelinesofener
17、gyprojectsandcurrentmarketconditions.Achievingtheresults outlinedbelowwouldrequireglobalinvestmentofaboutUSD1trillionannuallyoverthe nextthreeyears.Thisrepresentsabout0.7%ofglobalGDP. Thisplancanadd1.1percentagepointstoglobaleconomicgrowtheachyear.Itwould boosttheannualgrowthofdevelopingcountriesbya
18、round1.3percentagepointsandlead toglobalGDPbeing3.5%higherin2023thanitwouldhavebeenotherwise.Itwouldalso bringlastingbenefitstotheglobaleconomybecauseinvestmentinnewinfrastructure, suchaselectricitygridsandmoreenergyefficientbuildingsandindustries,wouldimprove theoverallproductivityofbothworkersandc
19、apital.Themeasureswouldalsoaccelerate theachievementofsustainabledevelopmentgoals:around420millionpeoplewouldgain accesstocleancookingsolutionsinlowincomecountries,andnearly270millionpeople wouldgainaccesstoelectricity. Theeffectonemploymentwouldbesignificant,savingorcreatingroughly9millionjobs ayea
20、roverthenextthreeyears.OurnewIEAenergyemploymentdatabaseshowsthatin 2019, the energy industry including electricity, oil, gas, coal and biofuels directly employedaround40millionpeopleglobally.Ouranalysisestimatesthat3millionofthose jobshavebeenlostorareatriskduetotheimpactsoftheCovid19crisis,withano
21、ther 3millionjobslostorunderthreatinrelatedareassuchasvehicles,buildingsandindustry. Thelargestamountofnewjobswouldbeinretrofittingbuildingsandothermeasuresto improvetheirenergyefficiency,andintheelectricitysector,particularlyingridsand renewables. The other major areas where jobs are created or sav
22、ed include energy efficiency in industries such as manufacturing, food and textiles; lowcarbon transport infrastructure;andmoreefficientandnewenergyvehicles. IEA. All rights reserved Executive Summary 15 The global energy sector would also become more resilient, making countries better prepared for
23、future crises. Investment in enhancing and digitalising electricity grids, upgradinghydropowerfacilities,extendingthelifetimeofnuclearpowerandincreasing energy efficiency would improve electricity security by lowering the risk of outages, boosting flexibility, reducing losses and helping integrate l
24、arger shares of variable renewablessuchaswindandsolarPV.Electricitygrids,thebackboneofsecureandreliable powersystems,wouldseea40%increaseininvestmentafteryearsofdecline.Thiswould putthemonastrongerfootingtowithstandnaturaldisasters,severeweatherandother potentialthreats. andhelpsputtheworldonatrajec
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