2020年世界能源展望可持续复苏特别报告2020 - 国际能源署（英文版）（174页）.pdf

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1、Recovery Sustainable World Energy Outlook Special Report in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, d

2、emand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that l

3、imit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/tandMistryoftheEnvironment,LandandSea,Italyon smart grids and power system modernisation. Activities within the IEA Clean Energy TechnologiesProgrammeprovidedvaluablesupporttothisreport. A webinar and an onli

4、ne consultation was held at the end of March 2020 in which participantsofferedvaluableinsights,feedbackanddataforthisanalysis.Wearegratefulfor theirinput. A number of senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewedpreliminaryreportdrafts.Commentsandsuggestionsthatwe

5、reofgreatvaluefor thereportwerereceivedfrom: LydiaShawelAbebeWorldHealthOrganization(WHO) AngelineAfanoukoeNexans DougArentUSNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL) JasonBabikWestinghouse GeorgBaeumlVolkswagen RichardBaron2050PathwaysPlatform JimBarrettBarrettEconomics HarmeetBawaABBPowerGrids SamaB

6、ilbaoyLeonNuclearEnergyAgency(NEA) RinaBohleZellerVestas,Denmark JasonBordoffColumbiaUniversity,UnitedStates NilsBorgEuropeanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomy AlexBowenLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience WilliamBrentPowerforAll SamBrockAmericanWindEnergyAssociation MarkBrownsteinEnvironmenta

7、lDefenseFund,UnitedStates SimonBuckleOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment (OECD) NickButlerKingsCollegeLondon SallyCairnsUniversityofLeeds BenCaldecottUniversityofOxford JulieCammellGlobalOffGridLightingAssociation PantelisCaprosE3Modelling AnneSophieCerisolaUnitedNations RusselConklinUS

8、DepartmentofEnergy BethCopanasRES PaulaCoussyIFPEnergiesNouvelles FrancoisDassaEDF BrianDeanSustainableEnergyforAll IEA. All rights reserved Acknowledgements 7 NicolasDiSbroiavaccaFundacinBariloche NavrozDubashCentreforPolicyResearch,India CandiceElAsmarPermanentDelegationofAustraliatotheOECD DavidE

9、lzingaAsianDevelopmentBank NormantEmmanuelSaintGobain AlexEvansGlobalLPGPartnership OlivierFontanHautConseilpourleClimat,France JamesFosterUKDepartmentforBusiness,EnergyandIndustrialStrategy ChristopherFreyENERCON JeanFranoisGagnDepartmentofNaturalResourcesCanada FaithGanEnergyMarketAuthority,Singap

10、ore PeterGeorgeCleanCookingAlliance MichaelGhielmettiABB ArunabhaGhoshCouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater,India DolfGielenInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA) PeterGornischeffPermanentRepresentationofEstoniatotheOECDand UNESCO MichaelGrubbUniversityCollegeLondon StphaneHallegatteTheWorldBank At

11、leHarbySintef AntoineHerzogEDF ChristinaHoodCompassClimate FrankJotzoAustralianNationalUniversity MichaelKellyWorldLPGAssociation FabianKesickiE.ONSE HoseokKimKoreaEnvironmentInstitute TomaszKozlukOECD JochenKreuselT(2)increasethespread ofcleanertransportsuchasmoreefficientandelectricvehicles,andhig

12、hspeedrail;(3) improvetheenergyefficiencyofbuildingsandappliances;(4)enhancetheefficiencyof equipment used in industries such as manufacturing, food and textiles; (5) make the production and use of fuels more sustainable; and (6) boost innovation in crucial IEA. All rights reserved 14 World Energy O

13、utlook 2020 | Special Report technologyareasincludinghydrogen,batteries,carboncaptureutilisationandstorage,and smallmodularnuclearreactors. Governments are set to make major decisions that will affect huge amounts of investment and shape infrastructure and industries for decades to come. Massive sti

14、mulus packages offer a unique opportunity to put the energy sector on a more sustainable path. Compared with the 200809 crisis, the costs of leading clean energy technologiessuchaswindandsolarPVarefarlower,andsomeemergingtechnologieslike batteriesandhydrogenarereadytoscaleup.GlobalCO2emissionsflatli

15、nedin2019and are set for a record decline this year. While this drop, which results from lockdown measuresandtheireconomicimpacts,isnothingtocelebrate,itprovidesabasefrom whichtoputemissionsintostructuraldecline. Theplanprovidesasignificantboosttojobsandgrowth Our Sustainable Recovery Plan shows it

16、is possible to simultaneously spur economic growth,createmillionsofjobsandputemissionsintostructuraldecline.Throughdetailed assessmentsofmorethan30specificenergypolicymeasurestobecarriedoutoverthe nextthreeyears,thisreportconsidersthecircumstancesofindividualcountriesaswellas existingpipelinesofener

17、gyprojectsandcurrentmarketconditions.Achievingtheresults outlinedbelowwouldrequireglobalinvestmentofaboutUSD1trillionannuallyoverthe nextthreeyears.Thisrepresentsabout0.7%ofglobalGDP. Thisplancanadd1.1percentagepointstoglobaleconomicgrowtheachyear.Itwould boosttheannualgrowthofdevelopingcountriesbya

18、round1.3percentagepointsandlead toglobalGDPbeing3.5%higherin2023thanitwouldhavebeenotherwise.Itwouldalso bringlastingbenefitstotheglobaleconomybecauseinvestmentinnewinfrastructure, suchaselectricitygridsandmoreenergyefficientbuildingsandindustries,wouldimprove theoverallproductivityofbothworkersandc

19、apital.Themeasureswouldalsoaccelerate theachievementofsustainabledevelopmentgoals:around420millionpeoplewouldgain accesstocleancookingsolutionsinlowincomecountries,andnearly270millionpeople wouldgainaccesstoelectricity. Theeffectonemploymentwouldbesignificant,savingorcreatingroughly9millionjobs ayea

20、roverthenextthreeyears.OurnewIEAenergyemploymentdatabaseshowsthatin 2019, the energy industry including electricity, oil, gas, coal and biofuels directly employedaround40millionpeopleglobally.Ouranalysisestimatesthat3millionofthose jobshavebeenlostorareatriskduetotheimpactsoftheCovid19crisis,withano

21、ther 3millionjobslostorunderthreatinrelatedareassuchasvehicles,buildingsandindustry. Thelargestamountofnewjobswouldbeinretrofittingbuildingsandothermeasuresto improvetheirenergyefficiency,andintheelectricitysector,particularlyingridsand renewables. The other major areas where jobs are created or sav

22、ed include energy efficiency in industries such as manufacturing, food and textiles; lowcarbon transport infrastructure;andmoreefficientandnewenergyvehicles. IEA. All rights reserved Executive Summary 15 The global energy sector would also become more resilient, making countries better prepared for

23、future crises. Investment in enhancing and digitalising electricity grids, upgradinghydropowerfacilities,extendingthelifetimeofnuclearpowerandincreasing energy efficiency would improve electricity security by lowering the risk of outages, boosting flexibility, reducing losses and helping integrate l

24、arger shares of variable renewablessuchaswindandsolarPV.Electricitygrids,thebackboneofsecureandreliable powersystems,wouldseea40%increaseininvestmentafteryearsofdecline.Thiswould putthemonastrongerfootingtowithstandnaturaldisasters,severeweatherandother potentialthreats. andhelpsputtheworldonatrajec

25、toryinlinewithinternationalclimate goals As a result of the Sustainable Recovery Plan, annual energyrelated greenhouse gas emissionswouldbe4.5billiontonneslowerin2023thantheywouldbeotherwise.After the200809financialcrisis,globalCO2emissionsbouncedbackwiththelargestincrease everrecordedastheworldecon

26、omystartedgrowingagain.TheSustainableRecoveryPlan wouldavoidthatkindofreboundinemissionsandinsteadputthemintostructuraldecline whilestillgeneratingeconomicgrowthandcreatingjobs.Airpollutionemissionswouldalso decreaseby5%asaresultoftheplan,reducinghealthrisksaroundtheworld. Theplanwouldmake2019thedef

27、initivepeakinglobalemissions,puttingthemona pathtowardsachievinglongtermclimategoals,includingtheParisAgreement.Energy efficiencymeasureswoulddeliverthelargestoverallemissionsreductionsundertheplan, accompanied by a major increase in lowcarbon electricity generation. Emissions of methane,apotentgree

28、nhousegas,fromoilandgasoperationswouldfall.Aroundone thirdofthereductionsingreenhousegasemissionswouldresultfrommeasuresthatalso savemoneyforconsumersandindustries.Theprocessofreforminginefficientfossilfuel subsidieswouldalsoaccelerate,takingadvantageoflowoilandgaspricestoavoidhurting consumers. Gov

29、ernmentshaveaonceinalifetimeopportunitytoshapeabetterenergy future Awiderangeofpolicies,initiativesandnewregulatoryframeworkswouldberequiredto support the deployment ofthis plan. Thefocus for governments should be to deliver resilient and clean energy projects that are shovelready. They also need to

30、 develop a strongpipelineofnewprojectsandtotailorsupportfordistressedindustriessuchasthe autosector.Creatingtherightinvestmentconditionswillbecriticalformobilisinglarge quantitiesofprivatecapitalandensuringthatthisalignswiththegoalsoftheSustainable RecoveryPlan.Internationalcooperationisalsoessentia

31、ltohelpaligndifferentcountries actionsandreestablishglobalsupplychains. IEA. All rights reserved 16 World Energy Outlook 2020 | Special Report TheIEAhasbeenleadingthecallsforgovernmentstomaketheeconomicrecoveryas sustainableandresilientaspossible.Wefirstconducteddetailedanalysisoftheimpacton globale

32、nergydemandandassessedthedamagecausedinkeyareas.Withthisreport,we areidentifyingthemosteffectivemeasuresavailabletogovernmentsastheyconsidertheir recoveryplans.TheSustainableRecoveryPlanisnotintendedtotellgovernmentswhat theymustdo.Itseekstoshowthemwhattheycando.TheIEAisprovidingdecisionmakers ingov

33、ernment,industryandtheinvestmentcommunitywiththestrongestpossibledata, analysisandpolicyoptionstohelpthemchoosethebestpathforwards.Wearebringingall ofthesegroupstogethertoidentifyhowtoactonthefindingsofthisreportattheIEA CleanEnergyTransitionsSummiton9July2020. IEA. All rights reserved Chapter 1 | C

34、ovid-19 and energy: setting the scene 17 Chapter 1 Covid-19 and energy: setting the scene The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic is prompting governments around the world to enact emergency support measures. Understandably, most of the measures announced so far focus on healthcare an

35、d financial support for vulnerable households and businesses. There are large variations between countries, but the announced fiscal measures in G20 countries represent around 7% of each countrys gross domestic product on average. The energy sector has played a vital role in supporting the delivery

36、of healthcare, remote working and many other needs. Like many other sectors, it has been strongly affected by the Covid-19 crisis. Global energy demand is estimated to fall by around 6% in 2020 relative to 2019. We estimate that around 8% of the 40 million jobs directly provided by the energy sector

37、 are at risk or have already been lost. Electricity from renewables could be the only energy source to grow in 2020, thanks to new capacity additions and priority dispatch. Attention is now turning to longer term recovery plans that seek to repair the economic damage being caused by Covid-19, minimi

38、se job losses among the 300 million jobs thought to be at risk globally, and help to create new jobs. Decisions made now will inevitably shape infrastructure and industries for decades. Recovery plans need to be aligned with long-term national and global objectives on energy resilience and sustainab

39、le development, and it is essential that they focus on clean energy transitions if those are to be met. Annual global CO2 emissions are expected to fall by around 8% in 2020, predominantly due to the downturn in economic activity, but recoveries from previous global economic crises have generally be

40、en accompanied by a large jump in emissions. A similar rebound in emissions can be expected after this crisis unless there is effort by governments to place clean energy transitions at the heart of the economic recovery. This report analyses sector-by-sector over 30 specific energy measures that gov

41、ernments may wish to include in their economic recovery plans. It draws on new IEA analysis of the direct and indirect jobs created by different measures and in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund presents an assessment of the impact of these measures on global economic growth. On thi

42、s basis, we set out a sustainable recovery plan a collection of measures and associated policies, initiatives and regulatory frameworks for countries to consider in the light of their own circumstances with a view to deliver a cleaner, affordable, more secure and more resilient energy system, and at

43、 the same time provide a major boost to employment and economic growth. S U M M A R Y IEA. All rights reserved 18 World Energy Outlook 2020 | Special Report 1.1 Introduction The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a brutal shock to countries around the world. The immediate focus of governments has neces

44、sarily been on healthcare, with parallel emergency financial and economic interventions to provide essential support to citizens and businesses, and to help avert economic meltdown. The energy sector has played a vital role at this time of crisis, not least in enabling the provision of digital servi

45、ces. In most regions, the energy sector, in particular electricity, has enabled hospitals to provide care, food to be delivered, and allowed millions of people to work remotely and be home-schooled: it has also underpinned digital connections with family and friends. Where access to reliable electri

46、city remains a challenge, the impact of this on health services, economic activity and the wellbeing of households during the crisis has served to underline the urgency of achieving universal access to energy (IEA, 2020a). The enormity of the shock caused by the economic crisis the largest since the

47、 great depression of the 1930s is prompting governments around the world to develop recovery packages on a scale that will shape infrastructure and industries for decades to come. These packages offer a significant opportunity to advance national and global objectives for long-term growth and sustai

48、nable development. If well designed, the parts of these packages focussed on the energy sector have the potential to deliver both jobs and growth, as well as an energy system that is cleaner, more secure, resilient and cost-effective. A unique feature of the Covid-19 crisis is that governments have

49、had to take short-term measures that actively suppress economic activity, and it is possible that some of these measures could continue for some time. Reduced economic activity has been accompanied by a steep drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, these emissions are very likely to rebound as economies recover, making it increasingly hard to meet sustainable development goals related to climate and health, and to mitigate other energy risks notably those related to climate resilience1 in the coming decades. By putting clean energy transitions at th