2019年能源效率展望报告- 国际能源署（英文版）（110页）.pdf

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1、Energy Efficiency 2019 Energy Efficiency 2019 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA ad

2、vocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are avail

3、able online at www.iea.org/t Zakia Adam; Simon Bennett; Joel Couse; Laura Cozzi; Mafalda Da Silva; Chiara Delmastro; Peter Fraser; Tim Goodson; Timur Guel; Nick Johnstone; Ebio Junior; Peter Levi; Luis Lopez; Francesco Mattion; Luis Munuera; Araceli Fernanadez-Pales; Leonardo Paoli; Faidon Papadimou

4、lis; Jungyu Park; Roberta Quadrelli; Andreas Schroeder; Paul Simons; Victor Garcia Tapia; Jacob Teter; Dave Turk; Laszlo Varro and Tiffany Vass. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report. The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided productio

5、n and launch support. Particular thanks to Jad Mouawad and his team: Astrid Dumond, Chris Gully, Katie Lazaro, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Rob Stone, Sabrina Tan and Therese Walsh. Andrew Johnston edited the report. The report was made possible by assistance from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and I

6、ndustry, Japan. The IEA would like to thank Alexandra Albuquerque Maciel (Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil); Kok Kiat Ang (National Environment Agency, Singapore); Peter Bach (Danish Energy Agency); Steven Beletich (4E TCP EDNA); Bob Blain (Natural Resources Canada); Alexandria Boyd (Natural Res

7、ourcesCanada); Juan Igancio Del Castillo (Permanent Delegation of Spain to the OECD); (Aneta Ciszewska (Ministry of Energy, Poland); Russell Conklin (US Department of Energy); Jelte de Jong (Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Netherlands); Shubhashis Dey (Shakti Sustainable Energy Foun

8、dation); Gabby Dreyfus (ClimateWorks Foundation); Bilal Dzgn (Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey); Wolfgang Eichhammer (Fraunhofer ISI); Mark Ellis (4E TCP); Mariangiola Fabbri (Buldings Performance Institute Europe); Ryosuke Fujioka (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan); Da

9、vid Gierten (OECD); Donald Gilligan (NAESCO); Jessica Glicker (Buildings Perfomance Institute Europe); Philip Harrington (Strategic Policy Research); Stephen Hibbert (ING Commercial Banking); Gerben Hieminga (ING Commercial Banking); Takashi Hongo (Mitsui); Humin Hu (Climateworks Foundation); Rod Ja

10、nssen (Energy in Demand); Rashmi Jawahar Ganesh (IPEEC); Paul Kellett (UN Environment); Benjamin King (US Department of Energy); Kristina Klimovich (EuroPACE); Roufaida Laidi (CERIST); Benoit Lebot (IPEEC); Molly Lesher (OECD); Pengcheng Li (China National Institute of Standardisation); Amory Lovins

11、 (Rocky Mountain Institute); Jean-Jacques Marchais (Schneider Electric); Eric Masanet (Northwestern University); John Mayernik (US Department of Energy); Cathy McGowan (Department of the Environment and Energy, Australia); Vincent Minier (Schneider Electric); Rob Murray-Leach (Energy Efficiency Coun

12、cil); Steve Nadel (ACEEE); Clay Nesler (Johnson Controls); Ryan Ng (National Environment IEA. All rights reserved. IEA. All rights reserved. Energy Efficiency 2019 Acknowledgements PAGE | 5 Agency, Singapore); Alan Pears; Carlos Pires (Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil); Kasia Poplawska (Natural

13、Resources Canada); Kasper Poulsen (Danfoss); Loic Renier (Schneider Electric); Marc Ringel (Nuertingen Geislingen University); Ana Lucia Rodriguez Lepure; Koichi Sasaki (IEEJ); Sandra Schoonhoven (ING Commercial Banking); Kosuke Suzuki (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan); Samuel Thomas

14、(Regulatory Assistance Project); Joe Wang (Natural Resources Canada); Kyota Yamamoto (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan) for their support, review and comments. The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contain

15、s. Any error or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA. For questions and comments, please contact EEfD (energy.efficiencyiea.org). IEA. All rights reserved. Energy Efficiency 2019 Table of contents PAGE | 6 Table of contents Executive summary. 9 I. Demand and energy intensity . 13 Highlight

16、s . 13 Primary demand . 13 Primary energy intensity . 15 Final demand . 17 Final energy intensity . 20 References . 21 II. Why are energy intensity improvements slowing? . 23 Highlights . 23 Introduction . 24 Recent changes in industry and exceptional weather compounded longer-term trends . 26 The i

17、mpacts of improved technical efficiency are being blunted by other factors . 26 Are our “digital lifestyles” more energy intensive? . 36 References . 39 III. Technical efficiency progress in 2018 . 43 Highlights . 43 Introduction . 44 Policy drivers of efficiency . 47 Finance and investment . 54 Eff

18、icient technologies . 62 References . 68 IV. Emerging trends: Digitalisation . 73 Highlights . 73 Introduction . 74 How can digital technologies combine to improve energy efficiency?. 75 Impacts of digitalisation . 84 How digitalisation is changing energy efficiency . 88 How policy can harness digit

19、al technologies for energy efficiency . 91 References . 98 Annexes . 103 Annex A: Definition of factors included in decomposition analysis . 103 Annex B: Efficiency policy types monitored by the IEA . 105 Glossary . 106 List of figures Figure 1.1. Changes in global primary energy demand, 2011-18 . 1

20、4 Figure 1.2. Global primary energy demand growth by fuel and leading regions, 2017-18 . 14 Figure 1.3. Primary energy intensity improvement . 15 Figure 1.4. Decomposition of changes in global primary energy demand (left) and changes in global electricity use by generation source (right), 2014-18 .

21、16 Figure 1.5. Change in global final demand, by fuel, 2011-18 . 17 Figure 1.6. Global production of crude steel, 2010-18 . 18 IEA. All rights reserved. Energy Efficiency 2019 Table of contents PAGE | 7 Figure 1.7. Average daily US natural gas and crude oil extraction, 2016-18 (left) and growth in U

22、S petrochemicals and manufacturing gross value added, 2011-18 (right). . 19 Figure 1.8. Monthly temperature anomalies (compared with 1910-2000), by region, 2018 . 19 Figure 1.9. Europe and China monthly electricity consumption and US monthly gas consumption, 2016-18 . 20 Figure 1.10. Final energy in

23、tensity improvement . 21 Additional economic value from energy intensity improvements, actual and if the energy intensity improvement rate had stayed at around 3% . 24 Contribution to global economic growth and final energy intensity improvement . 25 Decomposition of final energy use in the worlds m

24、ajor economies, 2009-18 . 27 The combined impacts of technical efficiency improvements and structural effects on demand, annually, 2012-18 . 28 The impact of technical efficiency improvements as a share of sectoral final energy demand . 29 Structural impacts on demand, as a share of sectoral final e

25、nergy demand . 29 Factors influencing passenger transport energy use, 2015-18 . 30 Average fuel consumption and diesel market share of newly registered vehicles for selected European car markets, 2010-18 . 32 Factors influencing freight transport energy use 2015-18 . 33 Factors influencing residenti

26、al buildings energy use, 2015-18 . 34 Average residential per capita floor area versus GDP in selected countries, 2010-15-18 . 35 Average household size versus GDP in selected countries, 2010-15-18 . 35 Ownership of cooling devices and GDP per capita in selected countries, 2010-15-18 . 36 Global dig

27、ital devices and connections, by type of device, 2015-2024 . 37 Impact of technical efficiency on primary energy intensity improvement (2011-18). 44 Energy-related GHG emissions, actual, without technical efficiency improvements, and avoided from technical efficiency improvements, 2015-18 . 45 Avoid

28、ed oil and gas imports in 2018 due to technical efficiency gains since 2000 . 46 Avoided expenditure on energy due to efficiency improvements since 2000, by sector . 46 Annual additions to the percentage of global energy use covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies and regulations, owing to n

29、ew and existing policies. 50 Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI) and annual changes in mandatory policy strength, 2000-17 . 50 Final energy use coverage of energy efficiency obligations, by country/region . 52 Government incentives for energy efficiency by type of incentive. 53 Average size of incentive received by individual recipients by type of incentive programme (weighted by incentive type) . 54 Energy efficiency investment by region, 2014-18 (left) and by sector in 2018 (right) . 55 Global ESCO market growth 2015-18 . 56 Global green bond growth 2014-18 .