2024-2029F硅基微显示发展趋势展望.pdf

《2024-2029F硅基微显示发展趋势展望.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2024-2029F硅基微显示发展趋势展望.pdf（22页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence1All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelli

2、gence1By Sigmaintell,Sep.20242024-2029F硅基微显示发展趋势展望Prospect of Micro Display Development TrendAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence22终端市场趋势洞察01硅基硅基OLED趋势展望02Micro LED趋势展望03All rights res

3、erved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence3Source:SigmaintellDefinition of AI smartphone and AI PC*TOPS:Trillions Operations per SecondMemory12GB RAM+256 ROMComputing PowerTOPS33SoCFlagship Chipset3/4 nmA

4、I smartphoneData runs on native device rather than processed in the cloudComponent Prerequisite for AI Smartphone端侧AI在智能手机与笔记本电脑中的应用：存储与芯片成关键需求Memory16GB RAMComputing PowerTOPS40ChipsCPUNPUGPUAI PCprovide hybrid intelligent learning and reasoningintegrated software and hardwareComponent Prerequisite

5、 for AI PCAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence4Source:SigmaintellLong-Term Global AI Smartphone&AI PC YoY Shipment ForecastGlobal AI PC market Growth(mils)(2024F-2027F)Global AI smartp

6、hone market Growth(mils)(2023-2028F)Flagship models drivenMatured models for mid-to-high end modelsAspiration for AI-on device synergy,like AI PC+IoT+Mobile142043954234664761109114411681155117511701%18%34%37%40%41%Y2023Y2024F2025F2026F2027F2028FAI shipmentGrand totalAI smartphone s market share in t

7、otal market端侧 AI 长期在中高端市场获利，纵向渗透有限，长期依赖横向扩展13551171587%28%56%79%1871982082002024F2025F2026F2027FAI PC shipmentGrand totalAI PCs market share in total marketAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Inte

8、lligence5Source:Sigmaintell63.5%-12.3%-22.7%8.2%20.0%75.2%41.8%33.9%16.1%7.011.510.17.88.410.117.725.133.639.020202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029FVR ShipmentAR ShipmentXR Shipment YOY%生态完善AIGC技术成熟成本下降2021-2028F Global XR HMD Shipment Volume and Forecast(Mil,%)苹果 All-in AI 以及 MR量产，有望推动行业202

9、4年温和复苏，长期仍依赖供应链成熟及“硬核场景”落地全球经济阴霾产品缺乏创新经济温和复苏Vision Pro发布All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence6AIGC可能成为XR的杀手级应用，提供内容创作和用户互动的新维度XRAIAI服务于XRXR服务于AI环境感知提高 XR 性能生成AI已有数据提升AI性能信息密度空间计算人脑延伸算力提

10、升Success of Ray-Ban Meta Glass视觉可视化自动驾驶零售电子商务医疗保健外科手术工作协作教育训练结合AI功能兼具时尚和功能性拓展使用场景合理的价格策略All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence7Source:SigmaintellVR/MR头显的显示技术路径 Fast-LCD依然是主力，Micro OLED将成

11、为高端MR旗舰标配VR显示方案由OLED向LCD演化；目前LCD是VR的主流方案；MicroOLED将在高端MR旗舰产品中得到更多应用从屏幕个数来看，由于单屏屏幕利用率较低，也逐渐有单屏向双屏演化Note:,indicate the number of VR Headset equipped with screensLCD LG 360 VR2DPVR E3C1HP VR10002Pico Gobin1Oculus Go1DPVR P1 Pro1Meta Quets Pro2Pico G21Pico G2 4K1Pico Neo 21Pico Neo 31HTC Vive Cosmos2HTC

12、 Vive Cosmos Elite2iQiyi Qiyu 32Oculus Quest 21DPVR E3 4K1DPVR P1 Ultra1HTC Vive Flow220162017201820192020202120222023MicroOLEDMeta Quest 32OLEDHTC Vive 2PS VR 1DPVR E3B1Oculus Rift2HTC ViVe Pro 2PS VR 22HTC Vive Focus2Oculus Quest 2iQiyi MR2Shiftall MeganeX2Arpara VRAIO2Pico 42Lenovo VR7002Skyworth

13、Pancake 122024DPVR E42Bigscreen2Apple Vision Pro2Sony MR?2Samsung MR?2Huawei MR?2All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence8Source:SigmaintellAR头显的显示技术路径 消费AR中Micro OLED是主流，Micro LED是长期方向Mic

14、roOLED硅基OLED 20162017201820192020202120222023Micro LEDLCOS硅基液晶AR产品显示方案由最初的LCOS、LBS、DLP等方案，逐渐向目前的硅基OLED演化。由于硅基OLED亮度问题，尚无法适配波导方案。硅基OLED+Birdbath仍是目前AR产品的主流技术路线。未来Micro LED+波导将成为AR产品的演化方向Epson MoverioBT-40LBS/DLP激光/数字Microsoft Hololens2Microsoft Hololens 22Magic Leap2Magic Leap 22Vuzix M4001Vuzix Shie

15、ld1Jimo/Honghu2Mad Gaze Glow Plus2Mad Gaze Wave2Nreal Light2Nreal Air2OPPO AR1Rokid Air1Xiaomi Smart Glass12TCL NXTWEAR Air2Google Glass Enterprise Edition 21屏幕数量方面，也将逐渐由单片向双片演化Note:,indicate the number of AR Headset equipped with screensINMO Air2OPPO AR 22Xreal Air 2/Pro2Rokid Max2INMO Go2Rayneo X2

16、2MYVU22024Xreal Air 2 Ultra2Rokid AR Lite2Viture Pro2Rayneo X2 Lite 2OPPO AR 32DigiLens Argo2All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence99010203终端市场趋势洞察硅基硅基OLED趋势展望Micro LED趋势展望All rights res

17、erved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence10Source:Sigmaintell0.40.82.54.28.716.425.435.2100.3%80.3%220.1%68.2%107.7%88.7%54.8%38.9%202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029FMicroOLED Shipment for XR(Mil.)YOY

18、%2022-2029F 全球MicroOLED面板出货趋势（Mil.,%）MicroOLED以其高像素密度、高刷新率及能耗等方面的显著优势，受到高端VR头显青睐。此外，在MicroLED技术尚未完全成熟之际，MicroOLED则作为AR头显的短期替代方案。MicroOLED 在高端VR/MR中具有性能优势，上量速度仍然依赖于供应链成熟度及成本优化AR for consumerVision ProCost downConsumer MRAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permis

19、sion.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence11MicroOLED VR需要更大的屏幕，而AR需要更高的屏幕亮度ModelApple Vision ProYVR MRSony SRH-S1Xreal Air 2Rokid MaxRayneo Air 2SVsion GlassTypeVR/MRVR/MRVR/MRARARARARDisplayMicro OLEDMicro OLEDMicro OLEDMicro OLEDMicro OLEDMicro OLEDMicro OLED2x1.422x1

20、.352x1.32x0.552x0.682x0.552x0.493648x31443840 x35523840 x35521920 x10801920 x12001920 x10801920 x10803387PPI3882PPI4024PPI4032PPI3330PPI4032PPI3692PPIDisplay SupplierSonyBOESonySonySonySonySeeyaOpticsPancakePancakePancakeBirdbathBirdbathBirdbathBirdbathRelease Price29999CNY3499USD14999CNY(2100USD)-2

21、499CNY(340USD)2999CNY(430USD)2399CNY(330USD)2999CNY(430USD)ReleaseJan 2024Jun 2024UnreleaseNov 2023May 2023May 2024Dec 2022HuaweiRayneoRokidXrealAppleSonyYVRAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Int

22、elligence12Source:SigmaintellMicroOLED 受到应用场景局限，VR市场仍不明朗；AR市场面临Micro LED及硅基OLED竞争应用场景VRAR性能需求 高分辨率(单眼4K)高PPIHigh PPI(3000+)高刷新率High Refresh rate(）120Hz 低延迟Low latency 尺寸及重量 成本 高PPI 超高亮度(100000nit+）低功耗 尺寸及重量 成本Strength 高PPI 高刷新率 高PPI 低功耗Weakness 1inch以上良率低 相对比LCD/OLED，成本偏高 亮度限制，目前产品仅适合室内使用Opportunity

23、 诸多资本投入，将推动产业链成本不断下降 苹果采用，头部品牌效应 Micro LED全彩技术尚未成熟 Micro OLED高亮度技术也在不断研发Threat Fast-LCD 显着的成本优势 市场受限应用场景，VR增量不明朗 MicroLED可能对MicroOLED构成威胁All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence13Source:Si

24、gmaintell驱动电路设计亮度及全彩化03.01.配套晶圆04.02.OLED制程材料MicroOLED 技术挑战：晶圆、材料、电路设计、亮度和全彩化 驱动电路设计 阳极电路设计 白光+OLED是目前的量产方案，但亮度低 RGB方案亮度高，寿命长，但仍不成熟，尚未量产 无专用晶圆产线，良率较低 供应不稳定 价格偏高 多采用OLED通用材料，缺乏专用MicroOLED制程材料 OLED材料厂商研发-产出回报低，未积极投入专用材料研发中驱动驱动显示显示晶圆成本 60%OLED制程 40%难度高良率低微透镜TandemRGB Pattern提升亮度有机材料封装材料180nm 55nmAll ri

25、ghts reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence1414010203终端市场趋势洞察硅基硅基OLED趋势展望Micro LED趋势展望All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co

26、.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence15Source:SigmaintellMicroLED Micro LED产品量产主要用于电视、智能手表和AR眼镜TCLOPPOMYVURayneoSamsungTagHeuerLGModelThe WallMAGNITX11H MaxConnected Calibre E4.Rayneo X2MYVU DiscoveryAir Glass 3ApplicationTVTVTVSmartwatchARARARDisplayMicro LEDMicro LEDMicro LEDMicro LEDMicro LED

27、Micro LEDMicro LED14634*58m LED13627*16m LED1631.39inch0.4cc2m LED0.4cc2m LED2x0.493840 x21603840 x21603840*2160454*454640*480640*4801920 x1080P0.84P0.7P0.9326PPI6153PPI6153PPI3692PPIDisplay SupplierChips:PlayNitrideBP:AUOChips:HC SEITEKBP:LGDChips:SananBP:CSOTChips:PlayNitrideBP:AUOJBDJBDJBDTechMas

28、s TransferR/B/G-LEDsLTPS Mass TransferRBG-LEDsLTPS BP 22.3Mass TransferLTPS BPMass TransferFlip RGB-LEDLTPS BPMonolithicSilicon BPX-cube ColorMonolithicSilicon BPX-cube ColorBirdbathRelease Price109,999USD749,999CNY-799,999CNY1800USD9999CNY4999CNY2999CNY(430USD)ReleaseMar 2024Jun 2024May 2024Jan 202

29、4Nov 2023Feb 2024Dec 2022All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence16Source:SigmaintellMicroLED 从需求角度而言，AR与Micro LED技术的匹配度最为吻合012345CostAdvantageBrightnessForm FactorResponsetimePPIPowerCons

30、umptionContrastMaturityOLEDOLEDMicroOLED012345CostAdvantageBrightnessThicknessResponsetimeSupersizePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345CostAdvantageBrightnessThicknessResponsetimeSupersizePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345Cost AdvantageBrightnessThicknessResponse timeSupersizePPIPowerCon

31、sumptionContrastMaturity012345Cost AdvantageBrightnessForm FactorResponse timePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345Cost AdvantageBrightnessForm FactorResponse timePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345CostAdvantageBrightnessThicknessResponsetimePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345CostAdv

32、antageBrightnessThicknessResponsetimePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturity012345Cost AdvantageBrightnessThicknessResponse timePPIPowerConsumptionContrastMaturityLCDLCDLCOSMicroLEDMicroLEDMicroLEDTVARWearables100200PPILarge Area4K and 8KWide viewing angleHigh contrastHight bright 3001000nitRequirement

33、for display2000PPILow power consumptionHigh bright 100000nitLight Weight and Small sizeFast Response TimeCost200300PPILight and thinLow power consumptionHigh brightnessRequirement for displayRequirement for displayAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.

34、Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence17Source:SigmaintellSource:Sigmaintell2022-2028F 全球MicroLED面板出货结构by应用（%）2022-2028F 全球MicroLED面板出货趋势（Mil,%）MicroLED TV价格与LCD/OLED技术悬殊巨大，高达数十万上百万的价格，短时间内难以进入大众消费领域。AR产品需要与环境交互，要求高亮度、高PPI、轻重量、响应快速。采用硅基背板结合CMOS工艺，将成为MicroLED市场爆发的突破口。Micro

35、LED AR将成为MicroLED量产的主要应用领域全彩化技术攻破成本得到优化头部品牌采用0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 3.3 7.1 11.7 202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029FMicro LED Display Shipment(Mpcs)20%19%11%3%2%2%99%99%79%81%87%96%97%97%202220232024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029FTVSmartwatchXRAutomobileAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction pro

36、hibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence18Source:SigmaintellFor Low PPI Application（AR）MicroLED 高PPI应用如AR：适用技术路径是单片CMOS和硅背板LowHigh12345Technology maturity:1(immature)to 5(mature)12345Wafer ProcessMOCVD EpitaxyChip Process4/6inch Sapphire6/

37、8/12inch SiliconTest and BinMonolithic IntegrationDie to DieWafer to WaferDie to WaferBondingCMOS in FoundryBackplane ProcessTestRepairTestPLELColor ProcessX Cube PrismQD ConversionModule and BondingDriver BondingTestOptical film attach433433232555200 PPI5m-LEDs 5000 nit3RGB Vertical Stack2RGB Epi G

38、rowth25MasksKeyAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence19Source:SigmaintellMicroLED 产业链积极布局、应用积极拓展EnnostarPlayNitrideAUOSamsungHC SemitekBOEBOESananExetremlyCSOTCSOTOSRAMLGDApplePlessyPles

39、syMetaSananVistarEpitaxialLED ChipsBackplaneMass Transfer and AssembleSet MakerLGDVisionoxSamsungNoteTCLPorotechPSMCFoxconnGISSamsung has launched a project to reduce the cost of Micro LED TVs,hope to reduce cost to 1/10 in the next 2-3 yearsHC Semitek LED chip Fab:equipment moved in,and MP is expec

40、ted in Dec 2024;COC/COW Capa 4.9KMW 1.Sanan and TCL CSOT establish a joint lab for Micro LED2.Sanan Micro project has been postponed until 2026 OSRAM announced that the project had been shelved in 24Q11.1.84 326PPI and 88 P0.5 TFT Micro LED light up2.MP is expected in the second half of 2024In 2023,

41、Porotech set new plants in the UK and Taiwan,lighting up a 0.12 on 8-inch GaN-on-silicon waferMeta acquired assets and technology exclusivity in 20Q1Mass TransferMonolithicJBDKopinJBD22Q4 MP,monochrome and full-color products have been mass producedEPILEDSInnoluxeLuInnolux1.Focus on color conversion

42、 Micro LED2.1.1 338 PPI MicroLED wearable watch is expected to be MP in Y25EnnostarPlayNitrideAUOAUO1.AUO produces smartwatch displays for TAG Heuer in Dec 2023.2.Supplies LTPS TFT panels for Samsungs LED TV.All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmai

43、ntell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence20Part 1:终端市场趋势洞察 端侧AI在智能手机与笔记本电脑中的应用：存储与芯片成关键需求 端侧 AI 长期在中高端市场获利，纵向渗透有限，长期依赖横向扩展 云、端AI 硬件的快速进步，有望拓展 XR应用场景更广泛落地 AIGC可能成为XR的杀手级应用，提供内容创作和用户互动的新维度 苹果 All-in AI 以及 MR量产，有望推动行业2024年温和复苏，长期仍依赖供应链成熟及“硬核场景”落地 VR/MR头显的显示技术路径 Fast-LCD依然是主力，Micro OL

44、ED将成为高端MR旗舰标配 AR头显的显示技术路径 消费AR中Micro OLED是主流，Micro LED是长期方向 XR显示发展趋势：硅基微显示应用将凭借性能优势，逐渐扩大渗透率 受益于AI应用的快速增长，2024年全球半导体收入将同比增长 15%Part 2:硅基OLED趋势展望 MicroOLED 在高端VR/MR中具有性能优势，上量速度仍然依赖于供应链成熟度及成本优化 MicroOLED VR需要更大的屏幕，而AR需要更高的屏幕亮度总结All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written

45、permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence21 MicroOLED 受到应用场景局限，VR市场仍不明朗；AR市场面临Micro LED及硅基OLED竞争 MicroOLED 全球月设计产能约31.6Kwafer,其中12英寸占比超8成 MicroOLED 技术挑战：晶圆、材料、电路设计、亮度和全彩化Part 3:Micro LED趋势展望 MicroLED Micro LED产品量产主要用于电视、智能手表和AR眼镜 MicroLED 从需求角度而言，AR与Micro LED技术的匹配度最为吻合 MicroLED AR将成为MicroLED量产的主要应用领域 MicroLED 高PPI应用如AR：适用技术路径是单片CMOS和硅背板SummaryThank you!All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdStay Specialized,Enable Intelligence22分析师：Xuecheng Chen电子邮箱：若需进一步讨论，欢迎联系